PDA

View Full Version : Article: What has happened to Joe Mauer's defense?



Parker Hageman
08-30-2012, 11:42 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?989-What-has-happened-to-Joe-Mauer-s-defense

Ultima Ratio
08-31-2012, 12:18 AM
Ah, but will he earn another gold glove regardless?

Shane Wahl
08-31-2012, 01:14 AM
Great analysis, Parker. That is something that can be worked on (and clearly should have already been addressed if the coaching staff and manager were competent).

The above is harsh, but I have to wonder if the Twins even have this simple video analysis available to them.

COtwin
08-31-2012, 07:46 AM
Great work Parker. I love analysis like this. A couple questions. Is the data that shows Mauer's decline pitcher irrelevant. It seems like compared to Mauer's prime we have had a lot of guys throwing in high 80s low 90s. As opposed to low to mid 90. Santana, Baker, Garza, etc. That seems like it would play a roll. Also it looks like several of our pitchers are slow to very slow to home. Thoughts?

Brock Beauchamp
08-31-2012, 08:00 AM
Great work Parker. I love analysis like this. A couple questions. Is the data that shows Mauer's decline pitcher irrelevant. It seems like compared to Mauer's prime we have had a lot of guys throwing in high 80s low 90s. As opposed to low to mid 90. Santana, Baker, Garza, etc. That seems like it would play a roll. Also it looks like several of our pitchers are slow to very slow to home. Thoughts?

I think it has something to do with it. Last season, Pavano put the hurt on catchers because his delivery is so slow. Liriano was the only guy who threw hard on the 2012 squad and his out pitch was a slider. Butera also caught him most of the time (and even Sweet Drew's SB/CS ratio is down this season).

But looking at those clips, it's not hard to see Mauer throwing flat-footed. It's probably a combination of things. Slow deliveries, slow pitches, bad pitch control (Deduno), and bad throwing form from Mauer.

Rosterman
08-31-2012, 08:42 AM
Can't figure out why he overthru the other Monday. That was so uncharacteristic Mauer. Part of it ahs to be lack of consistent playing time behind the plate. The other, working with nearly a dozen different starters who, on the whole, are pitching from behind and not setting the pace of a game.

JB_Iowa
08-31-2012, 08:45 AM
The pitching has to be a factor -- Mackey also gave numbers showing that Butera's caught stealing rate was down (about 25% if I remember right) as is Doumits (about 10% I think). But neither of those approach Mauer's astronomical decline.

I'm sure there are things he can work on. I'm also sure that in a losing season he probably doesn't want to overwork his knees. But I also have to think that his knees/legs are simply never going to be the same.

Rosterman
08-31-2012, 09:01 AM
Over at baseball reference they show Mauer (63) at 49/6, Doumit (48) at 23/6 and Butera (33) at 18/6 for (games played) attempts/caught. The team as a whole has thrown out 17% of base stealers.

Starters are: Blackburn 5/1, Deduno 5/1, DeVries 2/1, Diamond 13/3, Duensing 4/1, Hendriks 5/2, Liriano 13/2, Marquis 2/1, Pavano 7/1, Walters 4/0, Swarzak 0/1.

Relievers have been awful: Burnett 7/0, Burton 5/0, Capps 3/0, Fein 2/0, Gray 5/1, Maloney 2/0, Manship 1/0, Perdumo 1/0, Perkins 2/2, Robertson 2/1.

wavedog
08-31-2012, 09:31 AM
Rosterman, thanks for providing the stats on Doumit and Butera. That appears to indicate Mauer is our worst catcher and throwing out runners and the oppostion has picked up on this as there are more attempts against him if you normalize for the number of games caught. Someone can weigh in on if this is a large enough sample of data to make that assumption. Next we can look at catcher ERA's to see if there is a marked difference in calling games.

Parker Hageman
08-31-2012, 09:39 AM
Rosterman, what those numbers from B-R.com are missing is that those all runners caught stealing INCLUDING pick offs (those are marked in the catchers numbers too). If you dig a bit further, you will find that Mauer actually only "caught" 3 of those runners himself, Doumit caught 5 of 6 and Butera caught 4 of 6.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2012-specialpos_c-fielding.shtml

Rosterman
08-31-2012, 09:53 AM
Mauer pitchers have a 5.21 ERA, Butera 3.61 and Doumit 4.92

Rosterman
08-31-2012, 09:54 AM
I'm unsure the wording of those extra three...an assist with the pitcher...were those pitch-outs? Noticed that Mauer is the only catcher with a bonafide pick-off of a runner on base.

Riverbrian
08-31-2012, 09:56 AM
Baseball is a game of inches. Stolen bases are razor thin from many different factors and they all add up.

The Runner's Jump... The Runner's speed... The Attention paid to the runner by the pitcher. The Quickness of the delivery to the plate. The Catcher's Footwork and the Catcher's accuracy. The SS or 2B catch and tag.

I look at the footwork shown in the video example's and you do see a slight delay in Joe's movement from crouch to throwing position.

The Footwork is consistent and correct. It's a slower start and it could be the body that causes the slow start but I contend it's probably the mind.

Complacency is the #1 enemy of the ball player. Pitch after Pitch... Inning after Inning... Game After Game... Year after Year. It's a slow game... Mental focus comes and goes.

If the case... It's disapointing that it happens at the catcher position. Of all positions... The Catcher and Pitcher are the most involved and should be easily more engaged.

I wish I could have seen his release point on example #1.

From the defensive side... If you want to catch a thief... It's starts with the pitcher perfecting his pickup move to hold runners close... make them second guess... and a quick delivery to the plate once committed. The outcome of the majority of stolen bases are decided right there. It's a game of inches and each inch matters.

Tack on a slow reacting catcher and you got a problem. The runners are getting faster... It's a game of inches. It makes baseball beautiful.

Rosterman
08-31-2012, 10:03 AM
And sometimes you just want the pitcher to quit throwing over and let the guy steal if he wants...getting the batter out is more important. Yes, you like to keep a "possible" double-play in order. But, how many of those 90 stolen bases resulted in a run scored is the next question in play.

StormJH1
08-31-2012, 10:33 AM
And sometimes you just want the pitcher to quit throwing over and let the guy steal if he wants...getting the batter out is more important. Yes, you like to keep a "possible" double-play in order. But, how many of those 90 stolen bases resulted in a run scored is the next question in play.

First, let's get something clear about stolen bases - they're overrated. The primary commodity in offensive baseball is the out. You get 3 of them per inning and just like it makes little sense to bunt early in a game and trade one of those three outs out to advance a single runner one base, it's usually not a good idea to send a risk a 25 to 40% chance of being thrown out in exchange for one out. So while it's easy to beat up on Mauer, let's keep in mind that as bad as the numbers are, we're still only talking about a handful of additional runners that he should have thrown out over the course of a season.

That being said, I haven't really thought of Mauer as a "good" defensive catcher since at least mid-2010. There were times from 2006 to 2010 I felt he was an above average catcher. I think what's particularly alarming for a guy like Mauer, however, is that you look at 6'5" guy who is GIANT for a catcher, and you assume that his problems would be with blocking balls, moving around, etc. You wouldn't expect a former HS quarterback of that size to have trouble throwing out runners, but it's clear that he does.

And when you factor in the part time playing time, and recognize that it's September and Mauer's defense has resulted in only THREE caught runners all year, I think we can put to bed the argument that Mauer's offense has "added value" because of his defense.

nicksaviking
08-31-2012, 10:40 AM
And sometimes you just want the pitcher to quit throwing over and let the guy steal if he wants...getting the batter out is more important. Yes, you like to keep a "possible" double-play in order. But, how many of those 90 stolen bases resulted in a run scored is the next question in play.

Considering the lack of strikeout ability from the staff, more probably scored than we'd like to know.

That was great analysis, clearly he is not moving to get into position to make a throw before he recieves the pitch like he did in the past. As someone mentioned above, this should be easily fixable and I don't know why it hasn't been taken care of by now.

stringer bell
08-31-2012, 10:45 AM
I haven't noticed anything major with Mauer's throwing, but I have seen more throws that don't have a lot of zip on them. As was pointed out above, stolen bases are a proposition with small margins all around. The Twins, as a staff, aren't very good at either checking baserunners or getting the ball to the plate quickly, so most of the blame needs to fall there.

Riverbrian
08-31-2012, 10:48 AM
And sometimes you just want the pitcher to quit throwing over and let the guy steal if he wants...getting the batter out is more important. Yes, you like to keep a "possible" double-play in order. But, how many of those 90 stolen bases resulted in a run scored is the next question in play.

First, let's get something clear about stolen bases - they're overrated. The primary commodity in offensive baseball is the out. You get 3 of them per inning and just like it makes little sense to bunt early in a game and trade one of those three outs out to advance a single runner one base, it's usually not a good idea to send a risk a 25 to 40% chance of being thrown out in exchange for one out. So while it's easy to beat up on Mauer, let's keep in mind that as bad as the numbers are, we're still only talking about a handful of additional runners that he should have thrown out over the course of a season.

That being said, I haven't really thought of Mauer as a "good" defensive catcher since at least mid-2010. There were times from 2006 to 2010 I felt he was an above average catcher. I think what's particularly alarming for a guy like Mauer, however, is that you look at 6'5" guy who is GIANT for a catcher, and you assume that his problems would be with blocking balls, moving around, etc. You wouldn't expect a former HS quarterback of that size to have trouble throwing out runners, but it's clear that he does.

And when you factor in the part time playing time, and recognize that it's September and Mauer's defense has resulted in only THREE caught runners all year, I think we can put to bed the argument that Mauer's offense has "added value" because of his defense.

That's why they have stopwatches... No one wants to give up that out. They go when the stopwatch says go. All teams are a running on the same people. Guys Like Ben Revere can beat the stop watch... Everyone else waits for the stopwatch light to turn green.

From a defense side of things.... The Pitcher and Catcher have to beat the stopwatch. If you do that... Very few will go.

Make no mistake... High stolen bases is on the defense.

A more telling stat is not the percentage of throw outs... It would be the amount of attempts.

powrwrap
08-31-2012, 10:54 AM
I really want to comment on this because I love analysis like this, but really, the relevant thing here is how long does it take from the time the ball is in Joe's mitt to the time he throws the ball. The footwork analysis is interesting but ultimately what matters is how long the exchange takes.

You have the video. If you have a video editing program it would be an easy matter to get the elapsed times from catch to release point. Can you post those elapsed times? If you don't have one, MS Moviemaker is a free download.

powrwrap
08-31-2012, 10:56 AM
First, let's get something clear about stolen bases - they're overrated. The primary commodity in offensive baseball is the out. You get 3 of them per inning and just like it makes little sense to bunt early in a game and trade one of those three outs out to advance a single runner one base, it's usually not a good idea to send a risk a 25 to 40% chance of being thrown out in exchange for one out. So while it's easy to beat up on Mauer, let's keep in mind that as bad as the numbers are, we're still only talking about a handful of additional runners that he should have thrown out over the course of a season.

Spoken like a true stat-head. Each situation is different. Each player has different skill sets. In most circumstances, unless you have a big lead, if you've got a guy that is a great base stealer it would be stupid not to have them attempt to steal.

snepp
08-31-2012, 11:00 AM
What exactly is a "true stat-head?" Or should it simply be construed as a form of insult?

Brock Beauchamp
08-31-2012, 11:13 AM
Stolen bases' value are based entirely on their success rate. On the other hand, there are also things that cannot be statistically recorded. A fastball thrown in a breaking ball count because the pitcher is afraid of the steal. Broken rhythm from too many pick-off attempts at first during an at-bat. The break-up of a double play ball because the runner is now on second base.

A lot goes into a good running game and a lot of it is hard to track statistically.

Parker Hageman
08-31-2012, 11:14 AM
I really want to comment on this because I love analysis like this, but really, the relevant thing here is how long does it take from the time the ball is in Joe's mitt to the time he throws the ball. The footwork analysis is interesting but ultimately what matters is how long the exchange takes.

While that would be good supplemental information, what Gardenhire was referring to when he was saying Mauer is not getting behind the ball is that it is costing him some zip. It could be that he's getting a quick release in both cases however in his current form he's slightly slower at getting to ball to second overall.

powrwrap
08-31-2012, 11:14 AM
What exactly is a "true stat-head?" Or should it simply be construed as a form of insult?

Stat-heads are people get their baseball knowledge almost exclusively from statistical analysis, box scores, and spreadsheets. They probably have never played or coached.

It's not an insult, it's a description.

powrwrap
08-31-2012, 11:20 AM
While that would be good supplemental information, what Gardenhire was referring to when he was saying Mauer is not getting behind the ball is that it is costing him some zip. It could be that he's getting a quick release in both cases however in his current form he's slightly slower at getting to ball to second overall.

Ahh, OK, I see that now. Also, notice that his stride is not as pronounced nowadays compared to the earlier years and his follow through is not as complete as before.

Nick Nelson
08-31-2012, 11:29 AM
Stat-heads are people get their baseball knowledge almost exclusively from statistical analysis, box scores, and spreadsheets. They probably have never played or coached.

It's not an insult, it's a description.

I would call it an uninformed generalization, but either way.

Willihammer
08-31-2012, 11:40 AM
Complacency is the #1 enemy of the ball player. Pitch after Pitch... Inning after Inning... Game After Game... Year after Year. It's a slow game... Mental focus comes and goes.


I suspect the same. Its as Posnanski said about the pressure of losing:


A losing clubhouse? Exactly the opposite. The downward pressure is enormous and overwhelming -- after all, who cares? The town has moved on. A Hawaiian vacation awaits. Teammates are fighting to keep their jobs or fighting to impress someone on another team or just plain fighting. The manager might be worried about his job. The reporters are few, and they're negative. Smaller crowds make it easier to hear the drunken critics. Support is much harder to come by, and there is constant, intense force demanding that you just stop trying so hard. After all: Why take that extra BP? You've got the swing down. Why study a few extra minutes of film? You've faced that hitter before. Why take that extra base? Why challenge him on that 3-1 pitch? Why? You're down 9-3 anyway.

Why make that extra throwover to first base? There's 2 outs and your starting pitcher has already put you into a 5 run hole.

Why hop into that throw down to second? Your pitcher has already given him the bag.

jokin
08-31-2012, 11:42 AM
Stat-heads are people get their baseball knowledge almost exclusively from statistical analysis, box scores, and spreadsheets. They probably have never played or coached.

It's not an insult, it's a description.

I would call it an uninformed generalization, but either way.

Stereotypes exist because of the abstract halo of truth around the concrete reality, ofttimes the abstract shoes fit perfectly- at the other end is Billy Beane- I'd suggest you're somewhere inbetween.

mike wants wins
08-31-2012, 12:44 PM
What exactly is a "true stat-head?" Or should it simply be construed as a form of insult?

good question.

Nick Nelson
08-31-2012, 01:34 PM
Stereotypes exist because of the abstract halo of truth around the concrete reality, ofttimes the abstract shoes fit perfectly- at the other end is Billy Beane- I'd suggest you're somewhere inbetween.

I don't really consider myself a "stat-head" by any definition of the term. I use stats to support my opinions, not as the basis for them. (I mean, come on, I was railing against WAR on another thread just yesterday.)

I simply take exception to the whole "looks at box scores, doesn't watch the games, has never played baseball" mantra. I know plenty of fellow analysts who would be deemed "stat-heads" and the majority of them have played baseball before, watch tons of games and understand the intangible nuances of the sport. It's a vastly inaccurate stereotype.

Riverbrian
08-31-2012, 01:43 PM
If you know what PERA is ... OPS+... DIPS... You are a stat head...

My question is why anyone would be insulted by stat head.

Nick Nelson
08-31-2012, 01:56 PM
My question is why anyone would be insulted by stat head.
Because of the widely held definition provided on this very thread?

mike wants wins
08-31-2012, 02:18 PM
the use did not add value to the comments, but was used to generalize a group of people. If the author was not implying anything by the use of the term, then that was not the message received. An expression in the communications field is " message sent is not always message received". So if the word was not uses to imply something negative, why was it used at all?

Boom Boom
08-31-2012, 02:19 PM
Stereotypes exist because of the abstract halo of truth around the concrete reality, ofttimes the abstract shoes fit perfectly- at the other end is Billy Beane- I'd suggest you're somewhere inbetween.

I don't really consider myself a "stat-head" by any definition of the term. I use stats to support my opinions, not as the basis for them. (I mean, come on, I was railing against WAR on another thread just yesterday.)

I simply take exception to the whole "looks at box scores, doesn't watch the games, has never played baseball" mantra. I know plenty of fellow analysts who would be deemed "stat-heads" and the majority of them have played baseball before, watch tons of games and understand the intangible nuances of the sport. It's a vastly inaccurate stereotype.

Very well said... I would add that not only are there "stat-heads" who have played or coached, there are also some passionate baseball fans who don't follow stat sheets very closely AND have never coached or played.

Riverbrian
08-31-2012, 02:20 PM
If you get Metrics... Put it on your sleeve... It's a Badge. No reason to be insulted. I know what the stats mean... I'm a stat head.

My only concern with some use of metrics is the gospel like use of them by some. A good stat head should be able to recognize the fluctuations and realize that the stats don't provide an answer for the fluctuations and therefore can only be used as information of what has happened and not what will be with complete certainty.

The stat heads that should be insulted are the ones who take the numbers and say case closed!!! If that's not you... Don't be insulted.

There are baseball people who don't get metrics at all. That's a hole in their game.

powrwrap
08-31-2012, 02:52 PM
If you get Metrics... Put it on your sleeve... It's a Badge. No reason to be insulted. I know what the stats mean... I'm a stat head.

My only concern with some use of metrics is the gospel like use of them by some. A good stat head should be able to recognize the fluctuations and realize that the stats don't provide an answer for the fluctuations and therefore can only be used as information of what has happened and not what will be with complete certainty.

The stat heads that should be insulted are the ones who take the numbers and say case closed!!! If that's not you... Don't be insulted.

There are baseball people who don't get metrics at all. That's a hole in their game.

Excellent post. BTW, I use stats all the time. I enjoy stats. What I object to is what Riverbrian pointed out--when people use stats as the gospel and don't take into account the nuances of the actual game play. That's what I was getting at (rather clumsily) in my post when I said that if you've got a good base stealer you almost always send them.

Since I'm the guy that used the term 'stat-head' let me explain a bit further. And I can't believe everybody on this board that love the numbers of baseball didn't see it.


The primary commodity in offensive baseball is the out. You get 3 of them per inning and just like it makes little sense to bunt early in a game and trade one of those three outs out to advance a single runner one base, it's usually not a good idea to send a risk a 25 to 40% chance of being thrown out in exchange for one out.

OK, what's wrong with this statement? Anyone?

The problem is that no decent base stealer gets thrown out 25% of the time, much less 40% of the time. That's why I said if you have a good base runner you should almost always send them, if the situation warrants it. If you've got a guy with a success rate of 80% as a base stealer and you need to get that guy into scoring position, you send him. I'm sure someone can find the stats that show the likelihood of a base runner scoring from first base with 'x' number of outs vs. the chances of the runner scoring from second base. Heaven's sake, Ryan Braun is a career 79.5% success rate at SB's and we don't even think of him as being a base stealer. Furthermore the league average on CS% is around 27% FOR ALL BASERUNNERS.

jokin
08-31-2012, 03:23 PM
Stereotypes exist because of the abstract halo of truth around the concrete reality, ofttimes the abstract shoes fit perfectly- at the other end is Billy Beane- I'd suggest you're somewhere inbetween.

I don't really consider myself a "stat-head" by any definition of the term. I use stats to support my opinions, not as the basis for them. (I mean, come on, I was railing against WAR on another thread just yesterday.)

I simply take exception to the whole "looks at box scores, doesn't watch the games, has never played baseball" mantra. I know plenty of fellow analysts who would be deemed "stat-heads" and the majority of them have played baseball before, watch tons of games and understand the intangible nuances of the sport. It's a vastly inaccurate stereotype.

Very well said... I would add that not only are there "stat-heads" who have played or coached, there are also some passionate baseball fans who don't follow stat sheets very closely AND have never coached or played.

I hereby nominate the http://twinsdaily.com/member.php?182-The-Dread-Pirate to develop a Venn Diagram to put proper quantification and illustration of the intersection of the various subsets- with respect to 'stat-respect'- of the Twins fans in aggregation. Perhaps Pirate (who himself, said he occasionally has some available down-time) can go so far as to develop a questionnaire for each willing poster on Twins Daily so they can be identified and labeled by levels of stat-headedness, so the various camps and factions can determine if said poster is friend, foe or part-time intersecting ally.

bfd13
08-31-2012, 03:41 PM
I really want to comment on this because I love analysis like this, but really, the relevant thing here is how long does it take from the time the ball is in Joe's mitt to the time he throws the ball. The footwork analysis is interesting but ultimately what matters is how long the exchange takes.

While that would be good supplemental information, what Gardenhire was referring to when he was saying Mauer is not getting behind the ball is that it is costing him some zip. It could be that he's getting a quick release in both cases however in his current form he's slightly slower at getting to ball to second overall.


Has anyone tracked Mauer's passed balls and wild pitches this season? It seems like more catchable balls have gotten past him this season than ever before. I seem to remember several going between his legs without him getting his glove down to block the ball.

jokin
08-31-2012, 03:42 PM
I don't really consider myself a "stat-head" by any definition of the term. I use stats to support my opinions, not as the basis for them. (I mean, come on, I was railing against WAR on another thread just yesterday.)

By "any definition"? Is Billy Beane a stat-head or not?

I am in complete agreement with your middle sentence, but can't a stat-head do the same?

Finally, in response to your third sentence, your efforts on that thread with regards to WAR were admirable and did not go unnoticed by me.



I simply take exception to the whole "looks at box scores, doesn't watch the games, has never played baseball" mantra. I know plenty of fellow analysts who would be deemed "stat-heads" and the majority of them have played baseball before, watch tons of games and understand the intangible nuances of the sport. It's a vastly inaccurate stereotype.

Usage of the "Some of my best friends" arguments aren't overly persuasive.

Having said that-
If you look at the coke-bottle-lens-eyeware-, pocket protector-, White and unmarried single 20- & 30-Something bloggers-, indices in aggregate, I'd say the stat-heads make up a larger population of statistical-based analysts than the ex-jocks. (Let me be the first to say that Twins Daily is a refreshing excepton!-- although one of your brethren readily embraces the genre- with his self-titled, "Gleeman and the Geek" podcasts.

jokin
08-31-2012, 04:01 PM
[QUOTE=Riverbrian;51177]If you get Metrics... Put it on your sleeve... It's a Badge. No reason to be insulted. I know what the stats mean... I'm a stat head.

My only concern with some use of metrics is the gospel like use of them by some. A good stat head should be able to recognize the fluctuations and realize that the stats don't provide an answer for the fluctuations and therefore can only be used as information of what has happened and not what will be with complete certainty.

The stat heads that should be insulted are the ones who take the numbers and say case closed!!! If that's not you... Don't be insulted.

There are baseball people who don't get metrics at all. That's a hole in their game.

Excellent post. BTW, I use stats all the time. I enjoy stats. What I object to is what Riverbrian pointed out--when people use stats as the gospel and don't take into account the nuances of the actual game play. That's what I was getting at (rather clumsily) in my post when I said that if you've got a good base stealer you almost always send them.

Since I'm the guy that used the term 'stat-head' let me explain a bit further. And I can't believe everybody on this board that love the numbers of baseball didn't see it.


]The primary commodity in offensive baseball is the out. You get 3 of them per inning and just like it makes little sense to bunt early in a game and trade one of those three outs out to advance a single runner one base, it's usually not a good idea to send a risk a 25 to 40% chance of being thrown out in exchange for one out.[/B]

"OK, what's wrong with this statement? Anyone?

The problem is that no decent base stealer gets thrown out 25% of the time, much less 40% of the time. That's why I said if you have a good base runner you should almost always send them, if the situation warrants it. If you've got a guy with a success rate of 80% as a base stealer and you need to get that guy into scoring position, you send him. I'm sure someone can find the stats that show the likelihood of a base runner scoring from first base with 'x' number of outs vs. the chances of the runner scoring from second base. Heaven's sake, Ryan Braun is a career 79.5% success rate at SB's and we don't even think of him as being a base stealer. Furthermore the league average on CS% is around 27% FOR ALL BASERUNNERS."

Well-pllayed, powrwrap, RE- your complete and total dismantling of the all-too-common Twins Daily counter-point tactics- Argumentus Extremis Finitis with special sub-fallacies given by way of Stramineus Hominem (Straw Man) and Ignoratio Elenchi (Ignorance of refutation).

Bark's Lounge
08-31-2012, 04:43 PM
Well... this thread started off well. Now it seems to be directed by an egomaniac and a participant who will not be wrong at all costs. It is... quite a shame.:(

Riverbrian
08-31-2012, 05:13 PM
Well... this thread started off well. Now it seems to be directed by an egomaniac and a participant who will not be wrong at all costs. It is... quite a shame.:(

Actually I think he is just making his point. Seems Kosher to me... Although I can't be sure. His vocabulary is bigger than mine.

He might be ripping me or someone else a new one... or agreeing. I'm just not sure.

I wish I would have taken my English classes more seriously in school. :confused: :whacky028:

Bark's Lounge
08-31-2012, 05:31 PM
Well... this thread started off well. Now it seems to be directed by an egomaniac and a participant who will not be wrong at all costs. It is... quite a shame.:(

Actually I think he is just making his point. Seems Kosher to me... Although I can't be sure. His vocabulary is bigger than mine.

He might be ripping me or someone else a new one... or agreeing. I'm just not sure.

I wish I would have taken my English classes more seriously in school. :confused: :whacky028:

That makes two of us - but I do sense a negative overtone... maybe I am misreading it?:confused:

kab21
09-01-2012, 12:57 AM
I think the issue in this thread is that some statheads are slow to adjust their criteria when the game changes. I wouldn't be surprised if they think that SB's are overrated because of a book that came out a decade ago when baseball was in the midst of a steroid enhanced offensive era. At the time it made less sense to steal bases because you were more likely to get hits/HR's. Now the value of scoring ONE run has increased since it's sort of becoming a pitcher dominated time. guys like these give any that uses advanced stats a bad name.

and to stay relevant to the thread Mauer is awful at throwing out basestealers and everyone is running against him. Making a blanket statement that SB's are overrated doesn't even come close to dismissing the damage that is being done. Almost every game the opposing team is getting a free base with almost 0% chance of being caught.

FWIW I use stats a lot and I use a lot of advanced stats and I disagree with the above generalization.

BD57
09-01-2012, 08:07 AM
Good article, good topic.

IMO, the stats are interesting - how much they're telling us is open to interpretation.

Butera's numbers are decent - which pitchers? What are Mauer's numbers with those pitchers?

IMO, to really "get at it," we'd need to study the video of the stolen bases ... how big a jump are opposition base-stealers getting? If we studied enough tape, I bet we could find the "jump" dividing line - for the catcher to have a reasonable chance, the runner can't be more than X feet toward 2nd base when he receives the ball. Find out what the league average is and then compare your guy's number to that average ...

My sense ... and I hate to say this ... our staff's been lousy the past two years at a lot of things, holding down the running game included. It has to get frustrating, especially during a long season of losing.

IMO, this is an "off season" project. Get this year over, let Joe rest & recuperate, then - when the aggravation begins to wear off and enthusiasm is renewed, go to work on those fundamentals.

Oh, and tell Joe "We're busting the pitchers' asses about getting the ball off too."