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Vervehound
08-29-2012, 12:27 PM
twins have done a great job tanking for the second year in a row and would currently own the third overall pick next year would the season end today. unfortunately, the 2013 draft doesn't look particularly strong but there does seem to be a consensus that appel, stanek from arkansas and manaea from indy st are the top three arms available and we'd be guaranteed a shot at one of them at no. 3.

rickyhawaii
08-29-2012, 12:45 PM
Kharsten Whitson could also be the guy, but i'm all for best player available. Justin Williams an OF from Louisiana looks pretty impressive, corner of with a lot of pop. Then Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier could emerge as well.. Since it takes awhile for these guys to develop it won't matter what position they take.. good catcher prospects Jeremy Martinez and Zach Collins. Also SS Jan Hernandez could be the guy as well.. i love the draft..can't wait for it.

IdahoPilgrim
08-29-2012, 12:48 PM
I wouldn't touch Appel with a ten foot pole. I'd pick somebody who I knew was going to sign.

rickyhawaii
08-29-2012, 12:54 PM
Appel will probably have to sign ,but i think he may get injured this year. Stanford has a history of abusing arms.. There was also a pitcher before who kept getting drafted and not signing. I can't remember the name, there was an ESPN article on him a few years back maybe.. Harrison?.. then he ended up being a bust..

Vervehound
08-29-2012, 01:16 PM
Appel will probably have to sign ,but i think he may get injured this year. Stanford has a history of abusing arms.. There was also a pitcher before who kept getting drafted and not signing. I can't remember the name, there was an ESPN article on him a few years back maybe.. Harrison?.. then he ended up being a bust..

matt harrington. twins were rumoured to be in on him with the second overall pick but took adam johnson instead. if ever an agent should've been fired, it was harrington's.

Vervehound
08-29-2012, 01:30 PM
Kharsten Whitson could also be the guy, but i'm all for best player available. Justin Williams an OF from Louisiana looks pretty impressive, corner of with a lot of pop. Then Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier could emerge as well.. Since it takes awhile for these guys to develop it won't matter what position they take.. good catcher prospects Jeremy Martinez and Zach Collins. Also SS Jan Hernandez could be the guy as well.. i love the draft..can't wait for it.

both whitson and dylan covey will be former 1st rounders who're available to be re-drafted. whitson struggled with injuries this year but i don't think any of them were arm related so he could easily resurface at the top.

meadows and frazier appear to be at the head of the prep crop but both are outfielders and even though you always go bpa, i think you jigger the formula this year make sure the bpa isn't a prep of'er.

Vervehound
08-29-2012, 01:33 PM
I wouldn't touch Appel with a ten foot pole. I'd pick somebody who I knew was going to sign.

i have no problem picking him but have the twins ever picked a boras client in the draft?

maxisagod
08-29-2012, 01:38 PM
I wouldn't touch Appel with a ten foot pole. I'd pick somebody who I knew was going to sign.

i have no problem picking him but have the twins ever picked a boras client in the draft?

Yes... it did not go well.....

mike wants wins
08-29-2012, 02:03 PM
I want a pitcher, since Ryan has stated he will not pay for an elite arm I free agency, the only way they will get one is in the draft.

IdahoPilgrim
08-29-2012, 03:14 PM
I wouldn't touch Appel with a ten foot pole. I'd pick somebody who I knew was going to sign.

i have no problem picking him but have the twins ever picked a boras client in the draft?

That is the other reason I wouldn't touch him.

ScottyB
09-05-2012, 06:18 PM
i have no problem picking him but have the twins ever picked a boras client in the draft?

1996 - Travis Lee. He didn't want to play for the Twins. He had Boras tell the Twins to hold off on contract talks so Lee could concentrate on the Atlanta Olympic Games. The Twins did as requested and then they filed for free agency because the Twins didn't send out a contract within 15 days of the draft. He was granted free agency. The Twins have shied away from Boras ever since.

The only other Boras client I can remember the Twins dealing with was Joe Crede, and that was because Crede insisted on the Twins over the reccomendation of Boras.

Vervehound
09-06-2012, 01:08 PM
i have no problem picking him but have the twins ever picked a boras client in the draft?

1996 - Travis Lee. He didn't want to play for the Twins. He had Boras tell the Twins to hold off on contract talks so Lee could concentrate on the Atlanta Olympic Games. The Twins did as requested and then they filed for free agency because the Twins didn't send out a contract within 15 days of the draft. He was granted free agency. The Twins have shied away from Boras ever since.

The only other Boras client I can remember the Twins dealing with was Joe Crede, and that was because Crede insisted on the Twins over the reccomendation of Boras.

no - lee's agent was jeff moorad, who went back on a verbal pledge to terry ryan in order to get lee free agent status that year along with the prep pitchers. i believe the only boras client the twins have drafted is jason varitek.

Vervehound
09-06-2012, 01:10 PM
btw, i've done some preliminary sniffing around next year's top prospects an i've got to say that manaea jumps out to me. i prefer him over both appel and stanek. i'm guessing he's the number one overall pick.

Brock Beauchamp
09-06-2012, 01:13 PM
I see no reason to avoid Appel in the next draft. He has already refused to sign once. There's almost a zero chance he does it again. That would be madness.

James
09-06-2012, 02:27 PM
I see no reason to avoid Appel in the next draft. He has already refused to sign once. There's almost a zero chance he does it again. That would be madness.
Agreed. I believe the only reason he didn't sign was because he fell to #6. If he were #1, he would have signed. He's not going to hold out again. He's a senior this year, so if he doesn't sign, the only thing he could really do is go play independent ball somewhere for the year until he could enter the draft again, or sign as a free agent. Either way, that delays his entry into affiliated ball by another year. Deciding not to sign looks like he's taking the gamble that he will be drafter higher next year.

gunnarthor
09-06-2012, 02:36 PM
Tim Belcher was also a Boros client way back when who refused to sign with the Twins.

DPJ
09-06-2012, 02:52 PM
Ryan Stanek or nothing!!

Vervehound
09-06-2012, 04:31 PM
Ryan Stanek or nothing!!

might want to learn his actual name if you're going to pimp him.

drjim
09-06-2012, 04:57 PM
I like the talk but it is way early for this right? At this point last year was Buxton even really on anyone's radar? And he was the best player in the draft.

Also, the college SS's that everyone was high on at this point ended up dropping quite a bit. People will emerge.

ScottyB
09-06-2012, 06:10 PM
no - lee's agent was jeff moorad, who went back on a verbal pledge to terry ryan in order to get lee free agent status that year along with the prep pitchers. i believe the only boras client the twins have drafted is jason varitek.

My bad, you're right, it was Moorad. Lee ended up with Boras later.

Vervehound
09-07-2012, 09:32 AM
I like the talk but it is way early for this right? At this point last year was Buxton even really on anyone's radar? And he was the best player in the draft.

Also, the college SS's that everyone was high on at this point ended up dropping quite a bit. People will emerge.

buxton was firmly on everyone's radar at this point last year and was considered the top prep. your point is well taken but the reality is that the majority of the top picks are identified in the previous year, even prepsters. that said, the college crop was alleged to have two elite talents at this time last year - appel and devin marerro - so an awful lot is dependent on spring performance.

mike wants wins
09-07-2012, 11:50 AM
Apple would immediately be the Twins top pitching prospect. He projects as a number two starter. How is that not worth taking, given this staff? He is also pretty close to MLB ready. Passing on him would not make sense.

nicksaviking
09-07-2012, 12:32 PM
The Twins also had Boras clients Kyle Lohse and Carlos Gomez but both were traded for as prospects not drafted. Additionally, both were traded again before the Twins had to worry about serious arbitration and free agency. Unless the Twins start matching payroll with the big clubs, they'll probably spend their money more wisely than on a Boras client asking for 2x market value.

DPJ
09-07-2012, 12:44 PM
Ryan Stanek or nothing!!

might want to learn his actual name if you're going to pimp him.

Sorry, didn't know you couldn't talk a kid up cause his name is spelt stupid.

DPJ
09-07-2012, 12:46 PM
apple would immediately be the twins top pitching prospect. He projects as a number two starter. How is that not worth taking, given this staff? He is also pretty close to mlb ready. Passing on him would not make sense.

bpa!!!!!

mike wants wins
09-07-2012, 02:19 PM
If the BPA is another toolsy outfielder and your gm will not trade prospects for major league players, where do you ever get pitching? Oh, and he will not sign elite free agents either....

DPJ
09-07-2012, 02:39 PM
If the BPA is another toolsy outfielder and your gm will not trade prospects for major league players, where do you ever get pitching? Oh, and he will not sign elite free agents either....

If the best player is gonna monster ceiling high school outfielder I would have no problem taking him. Lets not fool ourselfs into thinking the Twins are gonna compete anytime soon, load up the system with as many high ceiling players as you can.

NTM you can find arms outside of the first round.

mike wants wins
09-07-2012, 02:57 PM
You can find monster outfielders outside the first round too. Where will the pitching come from if you pass on it at the top of the draft? And this isn't about next year.

Vervehound
09-07-2012, 03:13 PM
Ryan Stanek or nothing!!

might want to learn his actual name if you're going to pimp him.

Sorry, didn't know you couldn't talk a kid up cause his name is spelt stupid.

you sure can, but i'm guessing knowing his name might make more people listen to you.

DPJ
09-07-2012, 03:14 PM
You can find monster outfielders outside the first round too. Where will the pitching come from if you pass on it at the top of the draft? And this isn't about next year.

I don't know, that's for the Twins to worry about. All I know is if the best player on the board when the Twins draft are toolsy high school kids for the next decade and they take them....I won't give a **** cause it's the right game plan. But locking yourself into taking an arm (like Appel or any of the highly ranked arms in this last draft or 2013) is a mistake.

mike wants wins
09-07-2012, 03:49 PM
Why is it a mistake? BPA is just one philosophy. For me, if there is little difference, the should err on the pitching or middle infield side. If there is a medium difference, probably still err on the pitching side. if Bryce Harper is there, they should take him. But other than that, the discrepancy in ranking would need to be huge to continue passing on arms with high floors and very good ceilings.

DPJ
09-07-2012, 04:41 PM
Why is it a mistake? BPA is just one philosophy. For me, if there is little difference, the should err on the pitching or middle infield side. If there is a medium difference, probably still err on the pitching side. if Bryce Harper is there, they should take him. But other than that, the discrepancy in ranking would need to be huge to continue passing on arms with high floors and very good ceilings.

You realize that Appel, Zimmer, Gausmen were good prospects, but nothing that no Twins fan should cry over not drafting. They were the best of a group of medicore arms in a weak draft. Zeroing in on a arm hell of high water is a dumb way for any team to draft let alone one that's rebuilding. The Twins have alot of holes beyond the rotation and middle infield, so if it's all about talent you take best player and Buxton has if not the, one of the highest ceilings in this draft.

mike wants wins
09-07-2012, 06:55 PM
I realize the Twins have 1 arm in their entire minor league system that has any experience as a starter that profiles as a number 2. ONE arm. I also realize that Buxton could bust, as could any of those arms. But, it is more likely Buxton busts (HS player from a small town), than a college pitcher that has succeeded against top teams. Sure, Buxton's ceiling is higher, but the Twins have ONE arm in their entire system that currently profiles to even be a number 2, maybe even only 1 that profiles as a number 3 (JO is just too young, against too low a group of opponents to know anything at this point). I also realize that a team needs 5-7 starters and 5-10 relievers a year, and the Twins don't have anywhere near that. I also realize this GM will not trade prospects for legit MLB players, won't sign high priced players, and so far has shown a complete unwillingness to deal veterans for prospects this time around. So, I ask again, even in 3-5 years, where will the pitchers come from if you won't draft a college pitcher in round 1 unless he's Strasburg?

beckmt
09-07-2012, 10:27 PM
Take the BPA. Appel will have to sign for reasons noted above. Do not trust Boras, as he could be looking for a player to be a test court case on the major league draft. Twins seem to have done OK with sandwich pick pitching this year and next years second pick will be in that range as there will be less sandwich picks.

greengoblinrulz
09-07-2012, 10:34 PM
With Appel available at #3 next yr & he is again passed (no prob this yr), there will be a major fan revolt (of those of us that care).
Reading an article on Appel. He's talked with his Stanford coach about how he is too used next season (innings, pitch counts, actual pitch selection, etc) preparing him for the majors. Maybe that will help him from becoming the next college blowout.
Would Ryan/another GM consider Appel's Stanford season to be equal to a AA stint that he would have started the season off at and possibly pitch in majors next season??

joeboo_22
09-08-2012, 12:33 AM
Appel would be the smart pick, next year is considered weaker then this year. Now yes all of that can change, but Appel is the top guy, and closest to the majors right now. He will be a senior. If he chooses not to sign, the Twins would get the draft pick 1 pick later the following year, which will probably be deeper. I think the sign ability issue just isn't there.

Now thats not to say some guy comes out of nowhere next year and is better, yes that guy should be picked. But don't pick against Appel if he is the best available.

DPJ
09-08-2012, 09:47 AM
So, I ask again, even in 3-5 years, where will the pitchers come from if you won't draft a college pitcher in round 1 unless he's Strasburg?

Jesus titty-****ing Christ man, what I'm arguing about is this idea that you lock into a arm hell or high water in the first round. I don't know or care about the bust probobility of Appel vs. Buxton and I don't think it matters one bit. The Twins are in a postion that adding high ceiling talent (no matter the position) should be goal number 1. Locking yourself into a certain position is a foolish way to rebuild a system.

kab21
09-08-2012, 10:45 AM
I have no problem with Appel being picked at #3/4 if he's the best available. I said the same last year. In fact I would consider it to be a bit of a steal since the Twins would have gotten Buxton (decidedly the BPA) AND Appel.

If you allow need, proximity to the majors and signability to be the most important factors in the draft you set yourself up to lose over the long term. It's also very difficult to time the needs of the MLB team in the draft since it usually takes 2-5 yrs for most picks to make the majors. 3 yrs ago the Twins had a very good rotation and quite a few good (but not ace) arms in the minors. Just take the BPA (in the draft and trades) and worry about where to play them in 2-5 yrs.

mike wants wins
09-08-2012, 11:34 AM
That only works if your gm is willing to trade his prospects....how big of a difference would there need to be to take a pitcher or not. Also, the Twins will have less picks next year. at some point, they need pitching.

DPJ
09-08-2012, 11:50 AM
That only works if your gm is willing to trade his prospects....how big of a difference would there need to be to take a pitcher or not. Also, the Twins will have less picks next year. at some point, they need pitching.

You rank your top 1000 players of however many you rank and cross out names as you go. Whenever your turn is up you draft the best player on your board...were not reinventing the wheel here, this isn't rocket science here. Take the best...worry about here and how quick they'll get to the majors later.

kab21
09-08-2012, 07:40 PM
That only works if your gm is willing to trade his prospects....how big of a difference would there need to be to take a pitcher or not. Also, the Twins will have less picks next year. at some point, they need pitching.

I think I stated the reasons that I completely disagree with you above. Mainly it's hard to project your needs 2-5 yrs from now since that's how long it takes most draft picks to make it. As an example 2-3 yrs ago the Twins had a very good rotation. 5 yrs ago the Twins had a huge need for OF'ers and made that the focus of 2 trades. Neither of those trades worked out.

I also think it's premature to think that there won't be a couple of moves in the next 2-3 yrs where OF'ers are traded for pitchers.

SpiritofVodkaDave
09-08-2012, 09:43 PM
I realize the Twins have 1 arm in their entire minor league system that has any experience as a starter that profiles as a number 2. ONE arm.
False.

Gibson and Berrios. I'm sure there are some other gems hidden as well who have that sort of potetial: Boyd? Jones?

Badsmerf
09-09-2012, 09:10 AM
Felix Jorge has the upside, don't think we can really give him a ceiling yet.

mike wants wins
09-10-2012, 03:03 PM
I already commented that it is a bit early to know what berrios' ceiling is. He could be good, or he could be like delmon young and just be physically better than other kids. Ok, so you are saying there are two, one of whom has not pitched in A ball yet. Super. What is your solution?

diehardtwinsfan
09-10-2012, 06:37 PM
The twins have a few pitchers in the lower minors that could have nice ceilings. They've spent some money on bonus babies the last couple of years. The problem is that they have next to nothing in the high minors. They have plenty of bats, but no pitching. Unless they do some trading, they are going to have to sign some pitchers to be competitive next season.

IdahoPilgrim
09-10-2012, 06:59 PM
I see no reason to avoid Appel in the next draft. He has already refused to sign once. There's almost a zero chance he does it again. That would be madness.
Agreed. I believe the only reason he didn't sign was because he fell to #6. If he were #1, he would have signed. He's not going to hold out again. He's a senior this year, so if he doesn't sign, the only thing he could really do is go play independent ball somewhere for the year until he could enter the draft again, or sign as a free agent. Either way, that delays his entry into affiliated ball by another year. Deciding not to sign looks like he's taking the gamble that he will be drafter higher next year.

In that case, we should pick him and then, since he has less leverage, we should pay him under slot and use the money for other picks.

My guess is it has less to do with falling so low and more with he didn't want to play for Pittsburgh. Also, this could be an attempt by Boras et al to spike the wheel of a new draft system they hate. Either way, I wouldn't take the chance that he doesn't sign with the Twins even if he is picked by us and we offer him money comparable to a #1 pick overall.