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PurplePete
03-01-2012, 02:52 PM
I know there is great interest from Twins fans on Lucas Giolito possibly being our pick at #2 this year. Yahoo.com has a nice article regarding his first start in which he hit 100 mph. His line in 7 innings - 1 hit, 8k's and 0 BB. If the Twins are sure he will go pro and not go to UCLA, I think it's a no brainer come June. If he's avaliable.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/superstar-prospect-lucas-giolito-hits-100-miles-per-180318543.html

Seth Stohs
03-01-2012, 02:55 PM
That's the big question... will he be available? If not, Appel makes some sense.

twinsarmchairgm
03-01-2012, 03:05 PM
I think the chances of him going to school are pretty small as he really cant improve his stock any by going to college. The chances that he goes to UCLA and becomes the defacto #1 in three years are fairly low, and he is already looking at a bonus in the 7+m range. I hope Appel goes #1 because I think Giolito has a higher ceiling, even if there is a higher risk of him not reaching that ceiling.

Thrylos
03-01-2012, 03:25 PM
If he gets picked 1st or 2nd, he will sign, because a. he cannot get paid much higher and make more money with the way the bonus system works. b. has a risk to get injured in college and really miss a nice chunk of cash...

goliath
03-01-2012, 03:41 PM
I live in the area, and even though he (and Max Fried) have signed letters of intent to UCLA, I haven't read anything locally to indicate he is leaning toward college. He does go to a very prestigious private college prep high school, and I wonder if there will be some personal desire or family pressure to experience college. I plan to see him pitch on March 16 against Crespi High ( Trevor Plouffe's alma mater). I'm no scout, but last year I got to see Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer pitch at UCLA, and I liked Bauer more.

Parker Hageman
03-01-2012, 03:58 PM
Giolito gets a lot of hype - and as a high school kid hitting triple digits in February, he should - but the thing I don't necessarily like about him mechanically is his leg involvement. Here's a video of him pitching on 2.11 of this year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n6lNcH9Xyc Watch his leg lift. It goes up, then it goes right back down. That means a substantial amount of his velocity is generated from his arm instead of his lower-half.

Cody Christie
03-01-2012, 04:40 PM
That means a substantial amount of his velocity is generated from his arm instead of his lower-half.

That could be a sign of some bad things to come.

At this point, there is a lot of baseball left to be played before the Twins will have to make their selection. Both Giolito and Appel could turn into very nice players. The upside of Giolito is nice but I can see the Twins wanted to stick with the safer college arm.

Cap'n Piranha
03-01-2012, 05:47 PM
That could be a sign of some bad things to come.

At this point, there is a lot of baseball left to be played before the Twins will have to make their selection. Both Giolito and Appel could turn into very nice players. The upside of Giolito is nice but I can see the Twins wanted to stick with the safer college arm.


Odds are the Astros will make that decision for us.

zchrz
03-01-2012, 06:21 PM
Ive been all for drafting Giolito im still all for drafting him I think he is the best pitcher in the draft kid has massive potential. I just hope now with Appels stock falling abit that he is still available at 2.

jtrinaldi
03-01-2012, 06:26 PM
I think Buxton is the pick if Apple is not available

Seth Stohs
03-01-2012, 08:18 PM
Anyone else old enough to remember Colt Griffin?

diehardtwinsfan
03-02-2012, 09:20 PM
Giolito gets a lot of hype - and as a high school kid hitting triple digits in February, he should - but the thing I don't necessarily like about him mechanically is his leg involvement. Here's a video of him pitching on 2.11 of this year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n6lNcH9Xyc Watch his leg lift. It goes up, then it goes right back down. That means a substantial amount of his velocity is generated from his arm instead of his lower-half.

Interesting.... what I've been reading is that he has a smooth easy delivery that makes scouts drool... Personally, this is the pick I want. He may be a bit further away than Appel, but we need someone who can be a solid number 1.

twinscowboysbulls
03-04-2012, 03:41 PM
Parker, do you know what the hell you are talking about? Sorry, I just had to ask. I watched your clip, and for a high school kid he has a very smooth delivery. It appears to me that he strides out well and has a very fluid delivery, which makes he think he is getting his power from his legs.

Parker Hageman
03-04-2012, 05:11 PM
Parker, do you know what the hell you are talking about? Sorry, I just had to ask. I watched your clip, and for a high school kid he has a very smooth delivery.

Yes, I do. Certainly his mechanics are smooth but that does not negate the fact that if you watch his leg lift, it comes up then goes down before striding forward. This means that he is not generating power from his legs in the drive portion of his mechanics as much as he likely should (particularly for someone who throws triple-digits). It's very similar to the mechanics Kyle Gibson employs. While they look good, this puts some added pressure on the arm/shoulder.

Paul
03-04-2012, 05:38 PM
The first thing his drafting team will do is fix that stride. From that video it looks like he's got about a 48" stride. He's 6'6". Traditionally his stride should be 62" min.

jtrinaldi
03-04-2012, 06:26 PM
The first thing his drafting team will do is fix that stride. From that video it looks like he's got about a 48" stride. He's 6'6". Traditionally his stride should be 62" min.
With those numbers you threw out there you must know what you're talking about:rolleyes:

twinsarmchairgm
03-04-2012, 07:38 PM
Parker, I highly respect your analysis and think usually you are dead on in your diagnosis of swings and deliveries, but in this case I disagree with you. In high school & college the way we were taught mechanics is the same way Giolito demonstrates in the video. The front leg should go "up-down-out" helping a pitcher to keep his weight back over the mound, which in turn allows him to generate power with his back leg. If the pitcher's front leg goes "up-out-down" if throws off his balance, causes him to open up his front side, and rush his arm forward to catch up with the body. Watch this video of Verlander, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbVQc2gYjFQ&feature=related His front leg goes up, down, and then out towards home plate allowing him to generate his power with his back leg. This site does a good job of breaking it down as well http://www.baseball-pitching-tips.com/pitching-mechanics-drive.html. While I agree that Giolito could use his lower half a little more, I think his arm action is really clean and he has very little effort in his arm action.

Fanatic Jack
03-04-2012, 07:42 PM
I have said since October Lucas Giolito is the best pitcher in the 2012 MLB draft. He is a future ace pitcher and is very sound mechanically. However, the Twins don’t have any desire to draft a pitcher without college experience. They prefer #3 and #4 pitchers with little upside like Kevin Slowey and Alex Wimmers. Giolito would decide to go to UCLA if he is drafted by the Twins anyways. If you were the best prospect in all of MLB would you want to come to Minnesota and work with our coaching staff. It would make about as much sense as me giving vehicle designs to Lee Iacocca. They would tell him to “pitch to contact” and destroy his confidence just like they did to Liriano. Houston would be out of their minds to pass on Giolito and probably won’t. We need to hope Mark Appel is still available at #2 when the Twins draft. Appel is clearly not a #1 or #2 pitcher but will fit into our organization well.

Thrylos
03-04-2012, 07:52 PM
If you were the best prospect in all of MLB would you want to come to Minnesota and work with our coaching staff.

Because with the hard caps on the slots, any pitcher would be nuts to bypass the money that comes from the second overall pick and risk injury in college. That simple.

SarasotaBill
03-04-2012, 08:08 PM
Every pitcher instruction is leg up, then down and out.

Parker - I'm sorry but you couldn't be more wrong about pitching motion.

On the video, Giolito seems to have great form.

Parker Hageman
03-04-2012, 09:00 PM
On the video, Giolito seems to have great form.

I'm not being critical of his form overall - rhythm, tempo, repeatability all look good -- what I am saying is that he is not engaging his legs as much as he probably should.


Every pitcher instruction is leg up, then down and out.


The front leg should go "up-down-out" helping a pitcher to keep his weight back over the mound, which in turn allows him to generate power with his back leg. If the pitcher's front leg goes "up-out-down" if throws off his balance, causes him to open up his front side, and rush his arm forward to catch up with the body.

Der. In the simplest sense of pitching, yes, leg goes up, down and out. It's also a little more complex than that. It's not that he should go "up-out-down" either. Compare Verlander's sideview (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbVQc2gYjFQ) to Giolito's sideview (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-Hg_6UBSd0) (specifically one minute and fifty-two seconds in). In Verlander's case, when his leg hits the pinnacle and starts its descent, he's already driving forward off of his back leg. So as he's coming down, he's moving forward and driving off the mound. In Giolito's case, when he hits the peak of his leg lift, he's bringing the front leg back down before moving forward with his body thereby limiting the amount of drive in his kinetic chain.

So, his mechanics are smooth, repeatable, etc but the leg lift is the one thing I would offer as a "hmm" situation when contemplating him and his mechanics - that there is a potential for Giolito for putting stress on his arm. For someone throwing triple-digits and have a long ways to go from high school to the big leagues, there is a chance that his arm starts to wear. I'm not saying its detrimental nor even a reason not to draft him.

Parker Hageman
03-04-2012, 09:02 PM
While I agree that Giolito could use his lower half a little more, I think his arm action is really clean and he has very little effort in his arm action.

I have absolutely no problem with his arm action.

Esoteric Ball Guy
03-04-2012, 09:06 PM
From everything I've read I like Giolito more than Appel. That said if the Twins decide to go with a position player I hope they give a long look to Mike Zunino from Florida. Even if Buxton profile a bit higher I'd rather go after a premium position instead of grabbing another toolsy outfielder.

Turd Furgeson
03-05-2012, 05:05 PM
I keep hearing about Giolito's fastball that touches 100 mph at its peak. That's obviously very impressive, my question though is what are his secondary pitches? Do any of them rate very high?

Parker Hageman
03-05-2012, 05:16 PM
I keep hearing about Giolito's fastball that touches 100 mph at its peak. That's obviously very impressive, my question though is what are his secondary pitches? Do any of them rate very high?

He's got a good looking curve ball -- you get a good idea of it in the first video I posted. He throws a change-up but I haven't seen anything written up on that.

darin617
03-05-2012, 07:08 PM
I think the chances of him going to school are pretty small as he really cant improve his stock any by going to college. The chances that he goes to UCLA and becomes the defacto #1 in three years are fairly low, and he is already looking at a bonus in the 7+m range. I hope Appel goes #1 because I think Giolito has a higher ceiling, even if there is a higher risk of him not reaching that ceiling.

Finally, someone actually makes a statement nobody can argue with. If he goes to UCLA he would be throwing away millions if he either gets hurt or sucks. Too bad for the Twins he will probably go #1. I would not be suprised to see Appel drop to #5 overall. You have to wonder what Appel can do to help his delivery, they say it's easy to pick up the ball off him. Let's actually draft a kid that can strike guys out and forget about pitching to contact...

darin617
03-05-2012, 07:38 PM
That could be a sign of some bad things to come.

At this point, there is a lot of baseball left to be played before the Twins will have to make their selection. Both Giolito and Appel could turn into very nice players. The upside of Giolito is nice but I can see the Twins wanted to stick with the safer college arm.

I hate the idea of sticking with a safer college arm. What that means is using a #2 pick for a pitcher who would be a #3-4 SP on a good team or an ace on an average team.

darin617
03-05-2012, 07:47 PM
I have said since October Lucas Giolito is the best pitcher in the 2012 MLB draft. He is a future ace pitcher and is very sound mechanically. However, the Twins don’t have any desire to draft a pitcher without college experience. They prefer #3 and #4 pitchers with little upside like Kevin Slowey and Alex Wimmers. Giolito would decide to go to UCLA if he is drafted by the Twins anyways. If you were the best prospect in all of MLB would you want to come to Minnesota and work with our coaching staff. It would make about as much sense as me giving vehicle designs to Lee Iacocca. They would tell him to “pitch to contact” and destroy his confidence just like they did to Liriano. Houston would be out of their minds to pass on Giolito and probably won’t. We need to hope Mark Appel is still available at #2 when the Twins draft. Appel is clearly not a #1 or #2 pitcher but will fit into our organization well.

Finally a great post from Fanatic Jack! I agree with this statement 100%. I am only confused when people say Giolito will go first and we need to hope Appel will still be available when we pick NEXT. Maybe the Twins will just draft another OF because they only have OF prospects that they value so high and would never trade and then they end up complete failures. I would be talking about Aaron Hicks who they should have dealt for Cliff Lee.

Seth Stohs
03-05-2012, 07:48 PM
Doesn't matter who they take, there is risk. The risk is far, far higher with Giolito than with Appel. Appel's ceiling is pretty solid too. I mean, he'll be a solid top of the rotation guy, and much more likely. I worry about his K-rate, but everything else is great. (except his last start) I mean, it's not like Appel is a bad pick. I'd rather go with the guy with the highest ceiling, but when he doesn't get above AA will all the same people who say that it's absolutely the right choice eat their words? No, they'll bash the organization because Appel has been to X All-Star games and playoff wins.

darin617
03-05-2012, 07:50 PM
Because with the hard caps on the slots, any pitcher would be nuts to bypass the money that comes from the second overall pick and risk injury in college. That simple.

Players can come here ride out their service time and hope the great minds don't ruin their skills. Just watch Liriano will be an Ace again when he leaves MN and gets real coaches to fix what the Twins did to him.

Parker Hageman
03-07-2012, 12:47 PM
https://twitter.com/#!/BAHighSchool/status/177464029764268032

Boom.

Jeremy Nygaard
03-07-2012, 01:02 PM
...well that's interesting... And potentially very costly.

Seth Stohs
03-07-2012, 01:12 PM
Wow!! Looks like his HS is in favor of Rest-and-Rehab too.

righty8383
03-07-2012, 01:12 PM
So much for him...who's next?

Thrylos
03-07-2012, 01:15 PM
Wow!! Looks like his HS is in favor of Rest-and-Rehab too.

The keyword in the announcement is that the UCL is sprained and not torn. The correct treatment for spained UCL is rest and rehab. The ligament is stressed but in one piece, you just don't take it off. A bone analogy is a deep bone bruise vs a fracture...

righty8383
03-07-2012, 01:19 PM
The keyword in the announcement is that the UCL is sprained and not torn. The correct treatment for spained UCL is rest and rehab. The ligament is stressed but in one piece, you just don't take it off. A bone analogy is a deep bone bruise vs a fracture...

I am no expert, but I just get that feeling that a tear is all but inevitable somewhere down the road, Which of course would result in TJ surgery.

gunnarthor
03-07-2012, 04:47 PM
So much for him...who's next?

Buxton would seem to fit the Twins mold. Very toolsy high school centerfielder. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/draft-video-byron-buxton/

twinkiesfan11
03-07-2012, 04:59 PM
https://twitter.com/#!/BAHighSchool/status/177464029764268032

Boom.

Acting smug over someone's injury seems a little questionable...just saying

Parker Hageman
03-07-2012, 05:03 PM
Acting smug over someone's injury seems a little questionable...just saying

There's nothing smug about it. It's big news, hence, "Boom".

Neinstein
03-07-2012, 05:10 PM
There's nothing smug about it. It's big news, hence, "Boom".
Don't worry Parker... after all the opposition in those earlier comments, you deserve to feel a little smug. No, you definitely aren't showing it. You're right, nothing smug about the "Boom".
What's really going on here is a lot of folks were getting so excited about the possibility of a Twins/Giolito draft. Now they're all pissed about it.
Giolito wasn't the pick for the Twins either way.

Thrylos
03-07-2012, 05:13 PM
So much for him...who's next?

I think that the Giolito injury is a proof that this question is way way premature. A month or so before the draft might be the right time to ask it

twinkiesfan11
03-07-2012, 08:29 PM
"Huh. Weird"

I took this as smug, not sure how to take it any other way.

darin617
03-07-2012, 10:05 PM
Unless a guy is part terminator TJ surgery is probably inevitable for almost all power pitchers. Lucky for the Twins they don't believe in the fantasy of power pitchers who strike guys out.

darin617
03-07-2012, 10:08 PM
Sure, then we could see him beat Aaron Hicks to the big leagues.

Parker Hageman
03-08-2012, 07:24 AM
"Huh. Weird"

I took this as smug, not sure how to take it any other way.

Personally, I don't care how you take it but the fact that we were just discussing the possibility of Giolito having the potential to injure his arm not three days before is...well, weird.

twinkiesfan11
03-08-2012, 09:58 AM
Personally, I don't care how you take it but the fact that we were just discussing the possibility of Giolito having the potential to injure his arm not three days before is...well, weird.

Sorry to have touched a nerve. I just thought I sensed a little arrogance/self-satisfaction which I found obnoxious. I don't think this proves your point that Giolito had mechanical problems, I've read as many reports on him as I've been able to find and have never seen anything but glowing compliments on his mechanics. This a VERY unfortunate freak injury to arguably the top talent in the draft. This affects him personally/financially and frankly it at least indirectly affects the Twins by removing a top prospect from the top of the draft board.

righty8383
03-10-2012, 10:59 PM
Kieth Law had this to say in his blog today...

"• I've been asked by many of you about the news this week that Harvard-Westlake right-hander Luc Giolito, No. 2 on my most recent draft rankings (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7598591/2012-mlb-draft-ranking-byron-buxton-luc-giolito-mark-appel-top-50-prospects), has a sprained UCL in his right elbow and will miss the rest of his team's season. An MRI showed no damage, and he feels no pain, so the prescription for now is 4-6 weeks of rest followed by a conservative rehab schedule.

He had little left to prove on the mound, so if he can throw for teams at the end of May and still has no evidence of structural damage (not the same as evidence of no damage, but the best we can get), I think he should still go in the top 10 if he's willing to sign. The upside here is far too good for teams to pass up."

buffalojump
03-11-2012, 11:53 AM
A few things I know about Lucas Giolito: He has never had any arm problems before this, which is amazing considering he throws 100mph. He is as smooth and effortless a power pitcher I have seen in college or pros. He's also young for a senior in high school which means he's not done developing. He's got a great, goofy demeanor-- a natural pitcher's brain-- and he works very hard. If I was a GM I would sell the farm to get him.