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View Full Version : Extend high-upside "prospect" Morneau today?



Willihammer
08-23-2012, 03:53 PM
Potato Head has played in 99 of the Twins 123 games this year, excluding the 15 games in May when his wrist was sore. 71 of the 99 games he played at 1B, where for his career he has posted positive defensive value. Plus his wRC+ has improved dramatically, going from 69 in 2011 to 117 this year.

If Morneau continues to improve next season, the Twins won't likely offer Morneau a compelling salary afterwards esp. given Morneau's frustration with TF. However by extending Morneau today, the Twins stand to hold their only power lefthander at considerable discount through his age 37 season while assuming significant injury risk. Something like 5/30 would be very hard for Morneau to turn down at this moment, I think.

Dilligaf69
08-23-2012, 03:58 PM
This will not happen and should'nt untill they figure out the rotation...

Brock Beauchamp
08-23-2012, 04:01 PM
Depending on the price, it's worth exploring. If you can get him for ~$7m a year (I don't think you can), you consider giving him another couple of years.

I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.

J-Dog Dungan
08-23-2012, 04:10 PM
I think the Twins have been holding back Parmelee in AAA long enough, as he is tearing it up down there. They are in a fairly solid spot to trade Morneau for a pitcher or two and have a candidate ready to take over the spot if it does happen, and if Mornie's TV is high enough to get the pitcher's we are asking for.

JB_Iowa
08-23-2012, 04:33 PM
He isn't a 25 year old prospect. He is a 31 year old player. I'm holding my breath that he stays healthy for the rest of THIS contract.

Talking about giving him a long extension makes my stomach roll. (And I LIKE Justin as a player and think he's very valuable when healthy. I just have no faith in his long-term ability to stay on the field).

BeefMaster
08-23-2012, 04:52 PM
I don't think you can even consider giving Morneau a contract extension before next season (if even then). If Chris Parmelee is for real, Morneau's a man without a position, much like Parmelee is right now. If Parmelee turns back into a pumpkin next year, then Morneau might be worth giving another year or two, if the Twins don't have anyone else to put there. However, five years strikes me as borderline insane - frankly, any more than two years seems like too much, given his health history. Also, all this assumes that the Twins don't trade him for prospects next year - if the team isn't in contention, he's the most likely trade bait on the roster.

birdwatcher
08-23-2012, 05:00 PM
Will Morneau fetch us a top of the rotation starter his age or younger? If yes, the conversation should end. I'd also be willing to trade Parmelee instead, for a 26 year old #2 starter and take my chances with Morneau and Mauer at 1B. Hmm, wonder if Willingham has a first baseman's glove in the back of his locker...

diehardtwinsfan
08-23-2012, 05:11 PM
My heart says yes, let him retire a Twin. My head says no. I think Morneau gets traded at the deadline if he continues on the path he's on now and Parmelee takes his place. That's the right decision unless they move Doumit back into a more traditional catching role and keep Mauer back there more too and give one of them a full time DH.

Willihammer
08-23-2012, 05:39 PM
Also, all this assumes that the Twins don't trade him for prospects next year - if the team isn't in contention, he's the most likely trade bait on the roster.

TD groupthink assumes the the opposite way.

What if Morneau is terrific next year? He is certainly trending better. What if the team is in contention?

What if Parmelee thrives in right field? 1B and corner outfield esp. are supposed to provide cheap power. Not slap hitters who can't even steal effectively (Span, Hicks).

What if Span hits .320 and teams are more interested in him next July?


I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.

I think, today, $30m would interest the Morenose familyi. Next at this time, maybe they will scoff at it.

Brock Beauchamp
08-23-2012, 05:47 PM
I don't think it will happen. It's really in no one's interest to pursue that kind of contract.

I think, today, $30m would interest the Morenose familyi. Next at this time, maybe they will scoff at it.

I think the Twins would be insane to offer anything close to $30m and Morneau would be insane not to take it.

I was talking more in the two year, $15m range. Justin probably feels he could do better than that on the market and I'd agree with him.

Thrylos
08-23-2012, 05:54 PM
Extending Morneau will not only continue blocking Parmelee who has a small window for the Twins to see what he can do in the majors before Sano is ready, but it also takes away a potential decent starter that the Twins can get by trading him this off-season. This team does not need to extend thirty-somethings. Look at what the Rays have been doing with their old men, and whether they have been competing or not.

kab21
08-23-2012, 09:58 PM
Unless something changed in the last CBA you need to let a player hit FA if you want to pay him <80% of his previous contract (yearly value). That means that you must extend him at around 11M/yr.

The Twins aren't getting a potential decent starter this offseason for Morneau. About the only thing to do now is ride out Morneau's last year and potentially deal him at the deadline when he will have been healthy longer and will be owed less money.

mk
08-24-2012, 09:40 AM
When estimating Morneau's next contact maybe you don't have to look too far to find a comparable. Going into free agency, Josh Willingham was 32 years old and had averaged 128.5 games per season 2006 - 2011. Going into free agency after next season, Morneau will be 32 years old and over the span of 2006 - 2011 he has averaged 127 games per season.

Both 32 year old free agents with injury history and very similar stat lines 06 - 11. Of course, not all things are comparable as Morneau plays a good 1B, has an MVP award, and is a 4-time all star.

Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?

Brock Beauchamp
08-24-2012, 09:44 AM
Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?

If he puts up a 2013 line of .850 OPS and stays healthy, I think he'll get somewhere between $25-30m over three years. If he drops closer to an .800 OPS like he has now, I think he'll get Josh Willingham money.

mk
08-24-2012, 10:23 AM
Willingham got 3 years and $21 mil. What can Morneau expect?

If he puts up a 2013 line of .850 OPS and stays healthy, I think he'll get somewhere between $25-30m over three years. If he drops closer to an .800 OPS like he has now, I think he'll get Josh Willingham money.

So, that brings back the original question. Is it in the Twins' best interest to try to extend Morneau now at 3/25 or 3/30. A healthy Morneau has an OPS of .886 since July 1 which could put him closer to an Adrian Gonzalez comp (7 years, $154,000,000). Coincidentally, Morneau is at the top of all the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores for A-Gon.

mike wants wins
08-24-2012, 10:42 AM
I think they should package him and money for a big time prospect or something like that. I just don't see the money for both him, and pitching at the same time. I'd love for him to retire a Twin, I'm a huge fan of him as a player and a person.

DPJ
08-24-2012, 11:01 AM
I think it would be extremely foolish to invest any money longterm into Justin. Happy as a pig in **** he's been able to come back and play, but this man has the body of an 90 year old World War 2 vet. He's a banged up 32 year old lumbering 1B, those guys aren't that hard to replace. Plus I actually want to see what Parmelee can do (and he's no OF) He might not match Justin's production, but IMO he'll come close and it will only cost 400K.

Brock Beauchamp
08-24-2012, 11:03 AM
So, that brings back the original question. Is it in the Twins' best interest to try to extend Morneau now at 3/25 or 3/30. A healthy Morneau has an OPS of .886 since July 1 which could put him closer to an Adrian Gonzalez comp (7 years, $154,000,000). Coincidentally, Morneau is at the top of all the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores for A-Gon.

I would only consider bringing back Morneau if you could get him for two years and considerably less than $10m per year. With Parmelee in the wings, there's no reason to dump a ton of money into the guy. If he wants more, just trade him.

beckmt
08-24-2012, 11:21 AM
I think they should extend him for 3 years between 27 - 30 mil a year. These are the reasons.
1. No one will give full value for him and he could walk after next year(if he has a good year and make more money, while the Twins would have a PR disaster.
2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.
3. Could cause PR issues with Mauer if he leaves and Twins continue to lose( a possiblity
4. A Parmalee and Span package to the Mariners, Tampa Bay or LA Dodgers(possiibly Washington) could possibly bring back pitching help Twins need. Except for the Dodgers the other clubs watch their budget.
5. Money should not be an issue according to TR this offseason. Twins need to bring in a pitcher so they have money to spend on a middle infielder (flyer on Stephen Drew anyone)

diehardtwinsfan
08-24-2012, 11:28 AM
2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.



maybe so, but that's true of any prospect... You don't hang on to aging vets simply because a prospect might not work out. Given what Parm is doing, I'd say he's a better bet to work out than just about any prospect in the system.

greengoblinrulz
08-24-2012, 11:30 AM
I think they should extend him for 3 years between 27 - 30 mil a year. These are the reasons.
1. No one will give full value for him and he could walk after next year(if he has a good year and make more money, while the Twins would have a PR disaster.
2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.
3. Could cause PR issues with Mauer if he leaves and Twins continue to lose( a possiblity
4. A Parmalee and Span package to the Mariners, Tampa Bay or LA Dodgers(possiibly Washington) could possibly bring back pitching help Twins need. Except for the Dodgers the other clubs watch their budget.
5. Money should not be an issue according to TR this offseason. Twins need to bring in a pitcher so they have money to spend on a middle infielder (flyer on Stephen Drew anyone)
hope/assume you meant 27-30m TOTAL not per year.
If not.....yikes. Even Bill Smith would call that a bad deal!!!

Agree about 8-10m is about right for Justin, just am not interested in keeping him even tho his upside for that contract could be great.

sorney
08-24-2012, 11:32 AM
If you can't trade him, you let him walk next year.

DPJ
08-24-2012, 11:33 AM
1. You're right, no team is gonna give him fill value to a guys who's body and head and gone through hell and back of the last couple years. So why suddenly after an decent year where he still spent time on the DL do you wanna wrapper 30 million back into him?

2. There's no guarantee that any prospect works out, but this is what bad teams do. You get rid of expensive vets when you have cost controlled kids in the minors ready to roll.

3. PR disaster my ass, Morneau isn't one of the top players in the league. He's not a cornerstone player, he's an ok expensive 1B. You know what's gonna mean more to fans, using that money to address the pitching staff and get this team back on track.

4. What realistically MLB ready package do you see Parm and Span bringing back?

5. Money isn't an issue, but using that money wisely is what's important. When you have a MLB ready 1B in the minors that looks like he can realistically fill 1B I don't know why you throw 30 million at an old aging 1B.

beckmt
08-24-2012, 11:40 AM
I think they should extend him for 3 years between 27 - 30 mil a year. These are the reasons.
1. No one will give full value for him and he could walk after next year(if he has a good year and make more money, while the Twins would have a PR disaster.
2. No garentee Parmalee will work out leaving a big hole in the Twins lineup.
3. Could cause PR issues with Mauer if he leaves and Twins continue to lose( a possiblity
4. A Parmalee and Span package to the Mariners, Tampa Bay or LA Dodgers(possiibly Washington) could possibly bring back pitching help Twins need. Except for the Dodgers the other clubs watch their budget.
5. Money should not be an issue according to TR this offseason. Twins need to bring in a pitcher so they have money to spend on a middle infielder (flyer on Stephen Drew anyone)
hope/assume you meant 27-30m TOTAL not per year.
If not.....yikes. Even Bill Smith would call that a bad deal!!!

Agree about 8-10m is about right for Justin, just am not interested in keeping him even tho his upside for that contract could be great.
Me bad, meant 3 years. I have more concerns about points 1 and 3 than Parmalee. Also at Morneau's price he does not have much trade value at this time.
Trading has changed and small market teams will not give up good pitching prospects for older high priced players. Even the Dodgers were interested only if the Twins were doing a salary dump. So you have to trade pieces and prospects from positions of strength, right now for theTwins that is outfield and first base

Brock Beauchamp
08-24-2012, 11:44 AM
Me bad, meant 3 years. I have more concerns about points 1 and 3 than Parmalee. Also at Morneau's price he does not have much trade value at this time.
Trading has changed and small market teams will not give up good pitching prospects for older high priced players. Even the Dodgers were interested only if the Twins were doing a salary dump. So you have to trade pieces and prospects from positions of strength, right now for theTwins that is outfield and first base

With the new CBA rules mandating caps on international signings and the draft, I expect to see a shift where teams eat the salary of players like Morneau more readily just so they can get quality prospects in return. With those new caps on spending, it's not as if the Twins could take that $7m and use it in the draft or to pick up another Sano-type player. So it makes sense that they will start paying existing player salaries to bolster their farm system.

beckmt
08-24-2012, 11:51 AM
1. You're right, no team is gonna give him fill value to a guys who's body and head and gone through hell and back of the last couple years. So why suddenly after an decent year where he still spent time on the DL do you wanna wrapper 30 million back into him?

2. There's no guarantee that any prospect works out, but this is what bad teams do. You get rid of expensive vets when you have cost controlled kids in the minors ready to roll.

3. PR disaster my ass, Morneau isn't one of the top players in the league. He's not a cornerstone player, he's an ok expensive 1B. You know what's gonna mean more to fans, using that money to address the pitching staff and get this team back on track.

4. What realistically MLB ready package do you see Parm and Span bringing back?

5. Money isn't an issue, but using that money wisely is what's important. When you have a MLB ready 1B in the minors that looks like he can realistically fill 1B I don't know why you throw 30 million at an old aging 1B.

Good reply.
I would agree if Morneau was 34 - 35. He is 31- 32. There is a decent chance he could have 2 good years left. All the clubs I listed are budget watchers with the exception of the Dodgers. All these clubs also have excess starting pitching. Dodgers would not package any of there four top prospects for Dempster, but I would expect this package could pry one of them loose. If they wanted Morneau and would give up 2 of the four with Span included go for it.
Tampa Bay and Seattle have not been afraid to part with prospects if they return cheap hole fillers. That is why I feel that Parmalee and Span could bring 1 close to major league 2 -3 starting pitcher and 1 or 2 single A prospects.

beckmt
08-24-2012, 12:01 PM
One last note: The PR disaster is twofold:
1. As the Twins hopefully retool, fan support drops lowing the budget to add pieces. From 30+ a night to between 15 - 20, Now Mauer's salary becomes an albatross.
2. Mauer decides to make the Hall of Fame, he needs to win a title, so trys to force his way out when his value is on the decline. That is the PR disaster I meant. Do not run over the Mauer's friends or it may be worse than you think.

Twins Twerp
08-24-2012, 12:08 PM
No way do you offer him a contract. Ride him out through this contract if you can't trade him. We have the cards here. If TR can get a decent deal, then we trade him. If we can't then keep him at the 14.5 for next year. If he over performs next year, you offer him the 11.5-12 million one year deal. If he takes it, we get our Mornie, if he declines, we get a sandwich round pick. I don't think we need to go out and shop this guy hard.

I also think we can shed some cash if we do trade him, if LA comes in and offers us that young pitching prospect if we pay half his 2013 salary, I jump at that. That is a great deal for us. I like the guy, but this is a business and he has not given us half of the production you need for 14.5 mil a year. He should be the most thankful Canadian in the US. We haven't wasted money on a Canadian like this since the Titanic soundtrack.

diehardtwinsfan
08-24-2012, 12:10 PM
Seattle shouldn't be trading prospects for established players... Period.

Twins Twerp
08-24-2012, 12:14 PM
Agree about 8-10m is about right for Justin, just am not interested in keeping him even tho his upside for that contract could be great.[/QUOTE]

8-10 million? The guy can't hit left handed pitching? He is at best a platoon player. Parmalee will cost 14 million less, money that could be spent on a pitcher or 2. I don't understand the idea of trying to keep him. The production we can get from another average first baseman is the same, for much less money.

DPJ
08-24-2012, 12:17 PM
Mauer decides to make the Hall of Fame, he needs to win a title, so trys to force his way out when his value is on the decline. That is the PR disaster I meant. Do not run over the Mauer's friends or it may be worse than you think.

You were doing well, but you just lost me with this right here.

70charger
08-24-2012, 12:18 PM
No way do you offer him a contract. Ride him out through this contract if you can't trade him. We have the cards here. If TR can get a decent deal, then we trade him. If we can't then keep him at the 14.5 for next year. If he over performs next year, you offer him the 11.5-12 million one year deal. If he takes it, we get our Mornie, if he declines, we get a sandwich round pick. I don't think we need to go out and shop this guy hard.

I also think we can shed some cash if we do trade him, if LA comes in and offers us that young pitching prospect if we pay half his 2013 salary, I jump at that. That is a great deal for us. I like the guy, but this is a business and he has not given us half of the production you need for 14.5 mil a year. He should be the most thankful Canadian in the US. We haven't wasted money on a Canadian like this since the Titanic soundtrack.

I hate that I agree with this, because I love Morneau. But business-wise, this is what seems to make sense. I'd love to think that we could get a Morneau extension for Willingham money, but first off, I don't think it would be allowed with the new CBA, and secondly, I think it would make more sense not to rush it so that we can at least listen to offers at the 2013 trade deadline.

beckmt
08-24-2012, 01:01 PM
Mauer decides to make the Hall of Fame, he needs to win a title, so trys to force his way out when his value is on the decline. That is the PR disaster I meant. Do not run over the Mauer's friends or it may be worse than you think.

You were doing well, but you just lost me with this right here.

What I meant is if the Twins continue to lose for the next 2- 4 years could Mauer decide to force his way out of town and what a PR disaster that would be for the Twins. Plus we would not get anywhere near full value for him given his current salary. That could happen sooner if Mauer is not happy with the Twins direction and his clubhouse friends are all allowed to leave or shipped out.
Sorry if I was not clear

DPJ
08-24-2012, 01:27 PM
What I meant is if the Twins continue to lose for the next 2- 4 years could Mauer decide to force his way out of town and what a PR disaster that would be for the Twins. Plus we would not get anywhere near full value for him given his current salary. That could happen sooner if Mauer is not happy with the Twins direction and his clubhouse friends are all allowed to leave or shipped out.
Sorry if I was not clear

If this team loses for the next 2-4 years, getting Mauer's contract off the books wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I hope that Mauer wants to win, that it doesn't matter if he's surrounded by a bunch of *******s he hates. Whatever your personally feeling are for a friend and co-worker, at the end of the day this is a business of wins and loses and moving on from Justin and onto Parm so this team can finally get some damn pitching in here is what's best for business.

To potentially sign a guy to 30 million dollars cause it makes Joey happy is one of the worst reasons I've ever heard to sign a guy. Mauer is not KG, Morneau isn't Thud...no more friendship contracts.

beckmt
08-24-2012, 01:44 PM
What I meant is if the Twins continue to lose for the next 2- 4 years could Mauer decide to force his way out of town and what a PR disaster that would be for the Twins. Plus we would not get anywhere near full value for him given his current salary. That could happen sooner if Mauer is not happy with the Twins direction and his clubhouse friends are all allowed to leave or shipped out.
Sorry if I was not clear

If this team loses for the next 2-4 years, getting Mauer's contract off the books wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I hope that Mauer wants to win, that it doesn't matter if he's surrounded by a bunch of *******s he hates. Whatever your personally feeling are for a friend and co-worker, at the end of the day this is a business of wins and loses and moving on from Justin and onto Parm so this team can finally get some damn pitching in here is what's best for business.

To potentially sign a guy to 30 million dollars cause it makes Joey happy is one of the worst reasons I've ever heard to sign a guy. Mauer is not KG, Morneau isn't Thud...no more friendship contracts.

I would agree if Morneau was not worth the 8 - 10 mil a year. I still agree if an offer makes sense trade him. I just feel that resigning for 2 -3 years of a fair contract is not a bad thing. Only reason to not do this is is you feel that the Twins will not compete for years and then it makes sense to move Mauer also.
I do not feel this is the case and do not want the Twins to become like Kansas City, Seattle, or Houston(which could happen if they adopt some of the changes a few people of this forum recommend. (Editorial done)

DPJ
08-24-2012, 02:32 PM
I would agree if Morneau was not worth the 8 - 10 mil a year. I still agree if an offer makes sense trade him. I just feel that resigning for 2 -3 years of a fair contract is not a bad thing. Only reason to not do this is is you feel that the Twins will not compete for years and then it makes sense to move Mauer also.
I do not feel this is the case and do not want the Twins to become like Kansas City, Seattle, or Houston(which could happen if they adopt some of the changes a few people of this forum recommend. (Editorial done)

It's time to look at the Twins for what they are now...the Twins are KC, Seattle and Houston. This team isn't going anywhere for the forseeable future, so why wrap 30 million into a guy when you have a cheap MLB ready 1B waiting in the wings. The 8-10 million is better spent on pitching and more pitching and then some more pitching instead of an injury prone 1B.

mk
08-24-2012, 02:34 PM
I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

I agree that Parmelee deserves a shot based on his 2011 and 2012 seasons, but since when did saving money by letting a veteran go ever translate to picking up something useful anywhere else?

Brock Beauchamp
08-24-2012, 02:37 PM
I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

Adam Dunn was 30 years old when he hit free agency and, up to that point, was pretty much a lock for 500 PAs, a .260 average, a .400 OBP, and 35-40 home runs.

DPJ
08-24-2012, 02:38 PM
I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

40 HR, 100BB and stays healthy every season...that has no value at all.

Thrylos
08-24-2012, 02:43 PM
I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

I agree that Parmelee deserves a shot based on his 2011 and 2012 seasons, but since when did saving money by letting a veteran go ever translate to picking up something useful anywhere else?

Morneau in his MVP season was a 3.5 WAR guy. same in 2009. In 2010 he was a 5 win guy before he got hurt. last season he was below replacement level, this season he has been 1.1 WAR player or so. Might finish with 1.5 Last season in 21 games of every day play Parmelee was an 1.3 WAR player. Also in Rochester he proved sustained success if he plays every day.

So it is ridiculous to pay someone 14 million to get the same level of production as you get from a minimum wage guy, if you have as many holes as the Twins do. A $14 million a year first baseman is a luxury for a team who have lost 99 and is on pace for 95, two years in a row.
They Twins need pitching. Morneau and his $ relief will be able to do that. And there is a ready replacement in line.

As far as Dunn goes, the White Sox have been handing out some really awful contracts (and Dunn is not alone). Why should the Twins do that?

mk
08-24-2012, 02:59 PM
I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

40 HR, 100BB and stays healthy every season...that has no value at all.

Not saying that doesn't have any value, of course it does, just trying to put perspective on where the market is. Quality first basemen, even ones with flaws, make a lot of money.

Willihammer
08-24-2012, 03:04 PM
Dunn and Rios are overpaid but they're having comeback years and, voila the White Sox are back in first place.

It is easy to spend some one else's money but here everyone wants to save the Pohlad's money for some reason.

Boom Boom
08-24-2012, 03:12 PM
Dunn and Rios are overpaid but they're having comeback years and, voila the White Sox are back in first place.

It is easy to spend some one else's money but here everyone wants to save the Pohlad's money for some reason.

If the Pohlads want to boost their payroll by $20 million a year I'd have no problem with that. But they won't, so if I want to see the Twins return to relevance they'll need to spend their money more wisely than they have recently.

White Sox fans don't worry as much about payroll because the Sox are willing to go after players like Dunn and Rios.

JB_Iowa
08-24-2012, 03:14 PM
I want this franchise to make decisions based on what is best for their chances of success at playing BASEBALL not on PR reasons. In my opinion, considering PR factors has been part of this team's troubles.

If extending or re-signing Morneau makes sense because he is the best player available for the money (and significantly better than a lower cost player), then fine, do it. But do it because it makes baseball sense.

Fans will adjust -- as long as the TEAM wins. Fans would adjust if Mauer left town -- as long as the TEAM wins. Fans know that players come and go -- but they are generally fans of the TEAM.

Let decisions be made on creating a baseball TEAM that can compete with the BEST in mlb and everything will be okay. Making decisions based on players' PR or marketing value is the eventual road to ruination.

mk
08-24-2012, 03:50 PM
I think 8-10 mil a year is seriously undervaluing Morneau and what he's going to get as a FA after 2013. Adam Dunn can't hit his weight and he got 4 years and $56 mil.

I agree that Parmelee deserves a shot based on his 2011 and 2012 seasons, but since when did saving money by letting a veteran go ever translate to picking up something useful anywhere else?

Morneau in his MVP season was a 3.5 WAR guy. same in 2009. In 2010 he was a 5 win guy before he got hurt. last season he was below replacement level, this season he has been 1.1 WAR player or so. Might finish with 1.5 Last season in 21 games of every day play Parmelee was an 1.3 WAR player. Also in Rochester he proved sustained success if he plays every day.

So it is ridiculous to pay someone 14 million to get the same level of production as you get from a minimum wage guy, if you have as many holes as the Twins do. A $14 million a year first baseman is a luxury for a team who have lost 99 and is on pace for 95, two years in a row.
They Twins need pitching. Morneau and his $ relief will be able to do that. And there is a ready replacement in line.

As far as Dunn goes, the White Sox have been handing out some really awful contracts (and Dunn is not alone). Why should the Twins do that?

Morneau and his $15M contract isn't the reason the Twins are going to lose 90+ games this year, it's the $16M for Pavano, Blackburn, and Marquis. I'd guess that comparing the WAR for Morneau to those guys makes Morneau's $15M look like a steal.

Also, it's no sure thing that your're going to get the same production between Parmelee and Morneau. Parmelee 1.3WAR from 2011 is nice, but he also played quite a bit to begin 2012 (27 of the first 36 games). I don't know what his WAR was but he hit .179/.250/.262 striking out in nearly 23% of his plate appearances. For the record, based on his 50+ games at AAA in 2012 I think Parmelee deserves a chance to play and could really help the Twins, but so can Morneau even at $15M.

beckmt
08-24-2012, 03:57 PM
If you pay 7 million to get a better prospect back when to trade Morneau then you will have 12.5 million in sunk costs next year. That is close to 15% of the payroll. Also for the forum people who are looking at this for the year, look only at the last two months of Morneau producton. He may get more than 8 - 10 million a year after next year, but if you cannot get him to sign a reasonable extention, by all means trade him. He is in late prime and not over the hill for the next two years, so a three year contract seems about right.
It will cost over 12 mil to offer him arbitration at the end of next year and he might take that. That to me does not seem to be a good use of money, otherwise he walks at the end of next year and the twins get nothing in return. Market has changed, rules have changed, The players helped change the CBA to make the Tampa Bay model less attractive. Note the changes.

BeefMaster
08-24-2012, 04:21 PM
Unless something changed in the last CBA you need to let a player hit FA if you want to pay him <80% of his previous contract (yearly value). That means that you must extend him at around 11M/yr.

This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

greengoblinrulz
08-24-2012, 04:36 PM
Im still about trying to buy low & deal Justin to TOR (home country boy) for Ricky Romero. Ricky has been horrible, no question, but to get an ace/solid #2 type....you gotta take chances. Even the top level pitchers have down years.
Control has been his problem this year, but getting him to a pitchers park & out of a hitters park could be part of what turns him around. He's a massive groundball guy (unlike the supposed groundballer Blackburn) also & could possibly be helped by getting off the Rogers Ctr's version of its field turf

TheLeviathan
08-24-2012, 04:42 PM
Im still about trying to buy low & deal Justin to TOR (home country boy) for Ricky Romero. Ricky has been horrible, no question, but to get an ace/solid #2 type....you gotta take chances. Even the top level pitchers have down years.
Control has been his problem this year, but getting him to a pitchers park & out of a hitters park could be part of what turns him around. He's a massive groundball guy (unlike the supposed groundballer Blackburn) also & could possibly be helped by getting off the Rogers Ctr's version of its field turf

Most of the time - "buy lows" are low for a reason. I think you're vastly underrating the value of pitching in general and specifically of Romero. Morneau is not going to be enough to get that deal done.

kab21
08-24-2012, 10:54 PM
This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

It applies to arbitration cases but it also applies contract extensions (at least under the old CBA).

Alex
08-24-2012, 11:49 PM
Morneau is one of my favorite Twins and it saddens me to see how things have gone for him (, and this goes double so for what I'm about to say (though great to see him on the mend).

There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect? What we do know is that he is not worth $15M do

The irony here, and maybe the missed point, is that I actually believe the way Parmelee is playing and their comparable salaries, you're likely to get more for him than Morneau.

In my opinion, if you can trade Morneau for a SP prospect and shed $15M, you do it; but I really don't see the Twins getting an offer like that. It's a no-brainer. I'd say the exact same thing is true of Parmelee. However, I don't think he's worth that either and thus no way a player making $15M can be either with the track record of injuries Morneau has and the fact that while he's hitting great, he's really not worth $15 at 1B.

70charger
08-25-2012, 10:29 AM
This only applies to salary arbitration, not to contracts that are created outside that process. If Morneau agreed to it, the Twins could legally extend him for the league minimum; they would just have to agree to the deal either before offering arbitration or after Morneau becomes a free agent.

It applies to arbitration cases but it also applies contract extensions (at least under the old CBA).

Can anybody with a solid grasp of the new CBA clarify this for us? Would we be allowed to offer Morneau, say, half of what he makes now?

70charger
08-25-2012, 10:33 AM
There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

Alex
08-25-2012, 10:43 AM
There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

That's fair I guess, and based on reports the last few hours we may have missed a one-time chance with the Dodgers. I'd be very curious to know what they were offering, but really, even if it was just taking his contract it should have been worth considering.

beckmt
08-25-2012, 11:14 AM
There's something that's just illogical about some points in the is discussion. If he is not worth extending for something (say 3 years $7M) then how can he be worth a starting pitching prospect?

I think it's all relative. The Twins are obviously capable of producing runs, and they have a 1B waiting in the wings. What they don't have (at all) is pitching. So it's not that Morneau isn't worth signing at 3 for 7; it's just that he isn't worth signing at 3 for 7 for the Twins. His is not a position of need. Other teams might jump at that deal.

That's fair I guess, and based on reports the last few hours we may have missed a one-time chance with the Dodgers. I'd be very curious to know what they were offering, but really, even if it was just taking his contract it should have been worth considering.

Dodger wanted to make the playoffs and needed a productive firstbaseman. Red Sox made the deal so if the Dodgers got Gonzales, they also had to take the bad contracts of Beckett and Crawford. According to ESPN the Red Sox got Loony and 4 prosects including the Dodgers #2, and #3 according to preseason Baseball America. The Dodgers also got according to reports 12 mil. If these pitchers are good, this was a great deal for the Red Sox, removing there past mistakes and giving them money for FA this fall. This just opens another door for the twins as the Red Sox will need a firstbasemen this winter. They will also have the money to spend.

kab21
08-25-2012, 11:20 AM
the new CBA is here - http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5678:2012-2016-basic-agreement&catid=36:cbas&Itemid=48

On pages 12-16 they talk about maximum reduction of a player's salary and they don't distinguish between veterans and those with <6 yrs of service. It's everyone. the smallest extension that Morneau can be offered is around 11M/yr.

Imo - you just let Morneau play out the contract. there's a chance that you might be able to land a decent prospect at the deadline and there's even a chance that he performs good enough to make a qualifying offer for. I'm a big fan of Morneau and short contracts are not an issue for the Twins currently. I'm really scared that the Twins are going to overpay for a mediocre 30+ yr old starter.

Brock Beauchamp
08-25-2012, 11:46 AM
the new CBA is here - http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5678:2012-2016-basic-agreement&catid=36:cbas&Itemid=48

On pages 12-16 they talk about maximum reduction of a player's salary and they don't distinguish between veterans and those with <6 yrs of service. It's everyone. the smallest extension that Morneau can be offered is around 11M/yr.

Imo - you just let Morneau play out the contract. there's a chance that you might be able to land a decent prospect at the deadline and there's even a chance that he performs good enough to make a qualifying offer for. I'm a big fan of Morneau and short contracts are not an issue for the Twins currently. I'm really scared that the Twins are going to overpay for a mediocre 30+ yr old starter.

If they really wanted to do it, they could renegotiate Morneau's contract for 2013 at $11m and then put him at, say, $9m for two more years. It's possible but it would require some interesting negotiation.

kab21
08-25-2012, 12:48 PM
That might be possible or it might not. Even if it was Morneau shouldn't be locked up for 4 years (3 yr ext). go yr to yr with vesting options so you don't end up with a 10M long-term cheerleader.

Alex
08-25-2012, 12:56 PM
[QUOTE=Alex;49386][QUOTE=70charger;49384][QUOTE=Alex]

Dodger wanted to make the playoffs and needed a productive firstbaseman. Red Sox made the deal so if the Dodgers got Gonzales, they also had to take the bad contracts of Beckett and Crawford. According to ESPN the Red Sox got Loony and 4 prosects including the Dodgers #2, and #3 according to preseason Baseball America. The Dodgers also got according to reports 12 mil. If these pitchers are good, this was a great deal for the Red Sox, removing there past mistakes and giving them money for FA this fall. This just opens another door for the twins as the Red Sox will need a firstbasemen this winter. They will also have the money to spend.

Somehow I don't see the Sox getting rid of one contract like that for another, even if it's only a year, and then giving up prospects in addition. Boston got a great deal here, and my point was the Twins missed out, as reports say they were contacted again this week about Morneau by LA.

70charger
08-25-2012, 01:02 PM
It may not be the Twins' fault that they missed out on this deal. Morneau probably went on waivers, but the Dodgers were likely blocked by another team. Of course, there's no way to know this for sure. Maybe Terry Ryan just didn't like what the Dodgers had on offer.

Brock Beauchamp
08-25-2012, 02:28 PM
That might be possible or it might not. Even if it was Morneau shouldn't be locked up for 4 years (3 yr ext). go yr to yr with vesting options so you don't end up with a 10M long-term cheerleader.

I'm in total agreement, just thinking aloud. If I was the Twins, I wouldn't even consider signing him beyond 2015 and even that is a stretch for me.