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Nick Nelson
08-19-2012, 08:35 PM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?938-Deciphering-Deduno

PopRiveter
08-19-2012, 08:56 PM
It is an awfully fun formula to watch. Seems more likely to be a long-term bullpen option, but I like him.

COtwin
08-19-2012, 09:10 PM
I think he has shown an extraordinary ability to execute his pitches when he needs to. OR his pitches are unhitable AND down in the zone. Regardless I think he needs to be able to start to be effective. Seems like he could just come in and walk the bases loaded. He needs the longer leash given to a starter, so he can fix his mistakes. Hopefully this is a focus think and he can get squared away. So refreshing so see someone be unhurt able again. Think if Frankie had had his ability for damage control, dang.

COtwin
08-19-2012, 09:11 PM
I hate autocorrect on these dang smart phones.

greengoblinrulz
08-19-2012, 09:17 PM
think Gardy's postgame comments may show how the organization views him.
He wasnt complimentary today & said he/they cannot afford to walk that many, that it'll catch up with him & blamed some of the hitting problems on Duduno's pace/long innings.

kirbyelway
08-19-2012, 09:25 PM
think Gardy's postgame comments may show how the organization views him.
He wasnt complimentary today & said he/they cannot afford to walk that many, that it'll catch up with him & blamed some of the hitting problems on Duduno's pace/long innings.

They are on the field with Blackburn just as long. The difference is Deduno is giving them quality starts!

COtwin
08-19-2012, 09:40 PM
Gardy is weak. We hit like crap yesterday. Maybe that was on Diamond.

glunn
08-19-2012, 09:41 PM
Gardenhire complaining about Deduno in public seems counterproductive. The focus should be on working privately with him to reduce the walks.

JP3700
08-19-2012, 10:37 PM
Maybe Deduno should talk about how poorly Gardy manages. Putting in Robertson yesterday in a 2-2 game when Perkins had thrown 8 pitches in a week which made Robertson unavailable today.. Which forced Gray in the game to pitch to 4 consecutive left handed batters.. (LH batters' OPS is over 200 points higher against Gray than RH batters).. only to bring in Perkins in a 5-1 game just to get some work in. I understand players have to play but the manager's job is to put the players in the best position to succeed. I've watched blunders like this all year.. And no one says a word.

At some point shouldn't he be held accountable instead of throwing his players under the bus? The Astros just canned their manager for having the worst record in the NL. A team where only die hard baseball fans could name more than 5 players on their team with a payroll at this point well under $50 million. Well our team has double the payroll and two former league MVPs and we have the worst record in the AL.

jimbo92107
08-19-2012, 11:44 PM
Deduno is the most fun to watch of the five starters. His main strength is that he somehow manages to throw about 50 percent strikes, despite his crazy stuff. That means hitters can't depend on him to get a walk, so some of them swing and make bad contact.

Problems happen when he walks two or more in one inning, or when he uncorks a (remarkably rare) wild pitch. Also, there are some batters who appear to be able to get Deduno into a bad count, then sit on a pitch with less movement, when he's just trying to get a ball over the plate.

Still, with a really good fielding team behind him, Sam Deduno could keep the team in a lot of games. This argues for getting guys like Hicks and Arcia up from the minors, and keeping guys like Florimon and Casilla up the middle.

greengoblinrulz
08-19-2012, 11:51 PM
Maybe Deduno should talk about how poorly Gardy manages. Putting in Robertson yesterday in a 2-2 game when Perkins had thrown 8 pitches in a week which made Robertson unavailable today.. Which forced Gray in the game to pitch to 4 consecutive left handed batters.. (LH batters' OPS is over 200 points higher against Gray than RH batters).. only to bring in Perkins in a 5-1 game just to get some work in. I understand players have to play but the manager's job is to put the players in the best position to succeed. I've watched blunders like this all year.. And no one says a word.

At some point shouldn't he be held accountable instead of throwing his players under the bus? The Astros just canned their manager for having the worst record in the NL. A team where only die hard baseball fans could name more than 5 players on their team with a payroll at this point well under $50 million. Well our team has double the payroll and two former league MVPs and we have the worst record in the AL.
I am by far not a Gardy supporter, but its not Gardy who runs the pitching staff....he gives Rick Anderson almost full power. Several people have had severe problems with the bullpen use this yr, so I agree with ya.
However, you lose me completely by trying to justify Gray's problems :)

CDog
08-20-2012, 12:23 AM
blamed some of the hitting problems on Duduno's pace/long innings.

I watched the postgame and did not hear him say anything of the kind.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-20-2012, 12:43 AM
Do I think he's good? Not really. Better than Blackburn and Devries at least. 29 and he still can't control his pitches. I don't know if there is any way you can get him to issue less walks. He would have solved that problem by now. His WHIP is extremely high and that's a big warning sign.

JP3700
08-20-2012, 12:51 AM
I am by far not a Gardy supporter, but its not Gardy who runs the pitching staff....he gives Rick Anderson almost full power. Several people have had severe problems with the bullpen use this yr, so I agree with ya.
However, you lose me completely by trying to justify Gray's problems :)

Lol I wasn't trying to justify his problems. He's a bad pitcher.. No doubt about it. But if he's going to be on the roster.. For some apparent reason that no one knows of (free Slama).. Then you have to at least put him in better situations to pitch. His stuff is similar to Robertson in that they only throw two pitches.. It's just Robertson doesn't throw his fastball as hard but has more movement on it. He has a low 90s fastball that he can sneak by righties at times because he has a slider that dives down and away from righties. But he's a one pitch pitcher to lefties cause when he throws his slider to lefties it dives down and in which is their happy zone

Montecore
08-20-2012, 03:34 AM
Maybe Deduno should talk about how poorly Gardy manages. Putting in Robertson yesterday in a 2-2 game when Perkins had thrown 8 pitches in a week which made Robertson unavailable today.. Which forced Gray in the game to pitch to 4 consecutive left handed batters.. (LH batters' OPS is over 200 points higher against Gray than RH batters).. only to bring in Perkins in a 5-1 game just to get some work in. I understand players have to play but the manager's job is to put the players in the best position to succeed. I've watched blunders like this all year.. And no one says a word.

At some point shouldn't he be held accountable instead of throwing his players under the bus? The Astros just canned their manager for having the worst record in the NL. A team where only die hard baseball fans could name more than 5 players on their team with a payroll at this point well under $50 million. Well our team has double the payroll and two former league MVPs and we have the worst record in the AL.

Too many otherwise savvy analysts on-air (and off) don't hold him accountable. I think they're afraid of him as if he were a Mexican drug lord or something. In playoff seasons Gardenhire has always been over-rated. It's easy to see how it happened. But, his abysmal post-season record and the last two seasons have exposed his deficiencies. He's a stupid, hidebound, petty, selfish fool. I don't know what the Pohlad's problem is. But, they're being taken for a ride.

Jack Torse
08-20-2012, 08:26 AM
Even after completely and utterly dominating minor league baseball for four years, the controll artist by comparision anthony slama never got much of a chance because they said he walked too many. I realize he's been injured and is a reliever but impossible not to come to mind when the topic of BB comes up.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-20-2012, 09:34 AM
It seems like only a matter of time before DeDuno completely blows up, it seems like every other inning he has the bases loaded with 0 or 1 outs and is able to get out of it with little to no damage, that can't possibly continue.

He needs to have some extreme control improvement if he ever wants to stay in the league.

DPJ
08-20-2012, 09:42 AM
I love the guy, hell I'd rather see him walk the world onbase and get his K's then watch him pound the zone and give up hits galore like everyone else in this rotation. WIll it last...probably not. But I have no beef with the walks as long as he's getting his K's and limiting hits.

jeffk
08-20-2012, 09:48 AM
A lot of people are dismissing his success as low-BABIP luck... however, it's hard not to notice the pitchers you mention as having low BABIP are more less recognized as excellent pitchers - something about what they do keeps hitters from making good contact, and we accept that they're aces. Now, those guys also rack up strike outs and limit walks, so nobody's saying Deduno is an ace. But maybe he's a #3 who will continue to give up walks but not hits. I understand it's statistically rare and I wouldn't bet much on it, but I also think there's more to it than the idea that everyone should have the exact mean BABIP or else they're just lucky.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-20-2012, 10:02 AM
I love the guy, hell I'd rather see him walk the world onbase and get his K's then watch him pound the zone and give up hits galore like everyone else in this rotation. WIll it last...probably not. But I have no beef with the walks as long as he's getting his K's and limiting hits.

The problem is his k rate is only 5.9 per nine innings.

twinsnorth49
08-20-2012, 10:13 AM
I love the guy, hell I'd rather see him walk the world onbase and get his K's then watch him pound the zone and give up hits galore like everyone else in this rotation. WIll it last...probably not. But I have no beef with the walks as long as he's getting his K's and limiting hits.

Yep, and if anyone else references Nick Blackburn as some kind of comparison, punch yourself in the face for me :banghead::banghead:

twinsnorth49
08-20-2012, 10:36 AM
I am by far not a Gardy supporter, but its not Gardy who runs the pitching staff....he gives Rick Anderson almost full power. Several people have had severe problems with the bullpen use this yr, so I agree with ya.
However, you lose me completely by trying to justify Gray's problems :)

Lol I wasn't trying to justify his problems. He's a bad pitcher.. No doubt about it. But if he's going to be on the roster.. For some apparent reason that no one knows of (free Slama).. Then you have to at least put him in better situations to pitch. His stuff is similar to Robertson in that they only throw two pitches.. It's just Robertson doesn't throw his fastball as hard but has more movement on it. He has a low 90s fastball that he can sneak by righties at times because he has a slider that dives down and away from righties. But he's a one pitch pitcher to lefties cause when he throws his slider to lefties it dives down and in which is their happy zone

That's only a problem if the slider gets left up, which is his problem, because he's a lousy pitcher. Most relievers don't go with more than a couple of pitches anyway, the good ones just execute them a lot better.

DAM DC Twins Fans
08-20-2012, 10:47 AM
I love the guy, hell I'd rather see him walk the world onbase and get his K's then watch him pound the zone and give up hits galore like everyone else in this rotation. WIll it last...probably not. But I have no beef with the walks as long as he's getting his K's and limiting hits.

Me too--reminds me of Ryne Duren when I was a kid--so wild batters had no clue and wouldnt have solid AB. I hope it lasts--he deserves a chance to be in rotation in 2013--more so than Blackburn and Baker.

beckmt
08-20-2012, 11:03 AM
I agree. he needs to be here. Mauer has commented as a catcher, he has no idea where the ball is going, if this is the case, how can the hitters. Walks are not good, but he seems to get some ground balls for double plays. Let this play out, he is better at this point than most of the starters the Twins are throwing out there. You can't teach ball movement and late movement is what the hitters cannot handle.

Teflon
08-20-2012, 11:59 AM
Deduno has only given up 37 hits in 46 innings whereas most Twins pitchers give up at least a hit per inning. (ahem Nick Blackburn - 143 hits in 98 innings) In most cases a walk surrendered is a better outcome than a hit surrendered in not moving baserunners as far around the diamond and keeping the double play in order - so a low-hit high-walk pitcher should fare better than a high-hit low-walk pitcher if their baserunners to innings pitched are proportional.

I'd like to see some kind of stat that measures how many feet of bases both hitting and advancing a pitcher surrenders per inning pitched. For instance, if Blackburn gives up a single and then another single with the runner moving to third, that would be 1 base for the first single, and 3 bases for the second single - for 4 total bases. If Deduno gives up a single and then walks a batter, that would only be 3 total bases. Over the course of a season, they may put the same number of runners on base, but fewer runs would score against Deduno because the runners are not advancing to the same degree. It's sort of like the argument that a Joe Mauer who struck out more with men on base might actually be a good thing based on the number of double plays he grounds into by not striking out.

anthonyq77
08-20-2012, 01:26 PM
Let Deduno keep doing what he is doing. he has been very effective thus far and the Twins don't tend to spend much in FA. If he does "blow up" send him packing its not like he is getting paid a ton of money. Just because you think he might hit the wall, ots no reason to get rid of such a remarkably effective pitcher. (i mean remarkably as in "how is this guy doing it.)
Also i just don't get all the extreme Gardy hate around here. Do any of you actually believe the teams he had in several of those playoff years were anything more than average talent wise? I would say that atleast three of those teams had no right to even be in the playoff race on talent alone.

Sure he has his flaws that have all been repeated ad nauseum around here but seems to be a very good motivator who gets the most out of limited options (the last two years excepted.)

70charger
08-20-2012, 01:34 PM
I'd like to see some kind of stat that measures how many feet of bases both hitting and advancing a pitcher surrenders per inning pitched. For instance, if Blackburn gives up a single and then another single with the runner moving to third, that would be 1 base for the first single, and 3 bases for the second single - for 4 total bases. If Deduno gives up a single and then walks a batter, that would only be 3 total bases. Over the course of a season, they may put the same number of runners on base, but fewer runs would score against Deduno because the runners are not advancing to the same degree. It's sort of like the argument that a Joe Mauer who struck out more with men on base might actually be a good thing based on the number of double plays he grounds into by not striking out.

Seems like that would be a very useful stat. Certainly more useful than WHIP; kind of like a pitchers' version of wOBA.

I imagine it would correlate well to the hit vs. run yield rate (e.g. one team getting 5 hits may yield 5 runs, whereas another getting 5 hits may yield 1 run). That sort of stat might finally put the vague concept of "clutch" hitting to rest.

USAFChief
08-20-2012, 01:49 PM
No reason not to leave him in the rotation for this year. If he is one of the top five starters entering 2013, that's a failure by management.

PseudoSABR
08-20-2012, 02:16 PM
No reason not to leave him in the rotation for this year. If he is one of the top five starters entering 2013, that's a failure by management.
This

frightwig
08-20-2012, 04:18 PM
I love the guy, hell I'd rather see him walk the world onbase and get his K's then watch him pound the zone and give up hits galore like everyone else in this rotation. WIll it last...probably not. But I have no beef with the walks as long as he's getting his K's and limiting hits.

The problem is his k rate is only 5.9 per nine innings.

That K/9 might be just fine if his walk rate were less than half his 7.0 BB/9. But he does have a 7.0 BB/9(!), and his minor league BB/9 is 5.2. He's 29 years old. He probably won't ever develop a respectable command of the strike zone if he hasn't done it by now. His K/9 could well drop, and his BABIP probably will rise, as the league gets a longer look at him, or he loses any velocity, or if his luck just regresses to the mean.

Look, we're talking about a minor league journeyman sporting a 5.40 FIP, 5.07 xFIP, with a mediocre K/9 and horrible command, who already has to rely on "pitching out of trouble" for the success he's had in 46 IP this season. And there's some question about whether he might be one of the Twins' better rotation options going into next season? Oy.

JP3700
08-20-2012, 04:19 PM
I mean.. Let's be honest.. What he's currently doing isn't sustainable. But I do agree he should finish out the season.. But he does need to improve his walk rate. Hard to believe he will.. considering he's almost 30 and still hasn't figured it out but I hope he does cause he does have good stuff.

For the Deduno lovers.. Get excited about Esmerling Vasquez. Should be up September. Similar to Deduno. Wild with good stuff.. Has a much better track record though.

frightwig
08-20-2012, 04:58 PM
Deduno has only given up 37 hits in 46 innings whereas most Twins pitchers give up at least a hit per inning. (ahem Nick Blackburn - 143 hits in 98 innings) In most cases a walk surrendered is a better outcome than a hit surrendered in not moving baserunners as far around the diamond and keeping the double play in order - so a low-hit high-walk pitcher should fare better than a high-hit low-walk pitcher if their baserunners to innings pitched are proportional.


Can you give some examples of "low-hit high-walk" pitchers (let's say a BB/9 above 4.0, but the closer to a 7.0 BB/9 the better) who sustained above-average success by that approach? And would any pitchers on such a list also have a K/9 below 6?

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-20-2012, 05:47 PM
DeDuno has a FIP of 5.40 and an xfIP of 5.07

If you are going to walk a ton of guys, you frankly need to strike out a ton as well. Sanchez is the perfect example, he has always walked a ton of guys, but when he was striking out 9.5-10 guys per 9 innings he was able to get away with it. This year his k rate dropped below 7 and he has gotten shelled.

Kobs
08-20-2012, 06:42 PM
I am by far not a Gardy supporter, but its not Gardy who runs the pitching staff....he gives Rick Anderson almost full power.

"I told one of my employees to do my job" is not a valid excuse.

JP3700
08-20-2012, 06:59 PM
I am by far not a Gardy supporter, but its not Gardy who runs the pitching staff....he gives Rick Anderson almost full power.

"I told one of my employees to do my job" is not a valid excuse.

Might be the best comment I've read

Teflon
08-21-2012, 11:53 AM
Deduno has only given up 37 hits in 46 innings whereas most Twins pitchers give up at least a hit per inning. (ahem Nick Blackburn - 143 hits in 98 innings) In most cases a walk surrendered is a better outcome than a hit surrendered in not moving baserunners as far around the diamond and keeping the double play in order - so a low-hit high-walk pitcher should fare better than a high-hit low-walk pitcher if their baserunners to innings pitched are proportional.


Can you give some examples of "low-hit high-walk" pitchers (let's say a BB/9 above 4.0, but the closer to a 7.0 BB/9 the better) who sustained above-average success by that approach? And would any pitchers on such a list also have a K/9 below 6?

I think you would look for pitchers with comparable WHIPs and then compare the percentages of walks of each. My supposition would be that the pitcher with the higher walk total should give up fewer runs, barring a large discrepancy in extra-base hits between the two. For instance, Aaron Harang and Dan Haren have almost identical WHIPs (1.391) in a fairly comparable number of innings (143 - 129) with a similar number of strikeouts (112 - 101) Harang has walked twice as many batters (67) as Haren (33) but has an ERA over a run lower. (3.65 to 4.90) To my mind, Harang would be the better choice between the two BECAUSE he walks more batters. I'm not saying Harang would be better than a pitcher with a lower WHIP - just better than a pitcher with a comparable WHIP and fewer walks.

kab21
08-21-2012, 12:26 PM
I think you would look for pitchers with comparable WHIPs and then compare the percentages of walks of each. My supposition would be that the pitcher with the higher walk total should give up fewer runs, barring a large discrepancy in extra-base hits between the two. For instance, Aaron Harang and Dan Haren have almost identical WHIPs (1.391) in a fairly comparable number of innings (143 - 129) with a similar number of strikeouts (112 - 101) Harang has walked twice as many batters (67) as Haren (33) but has an ERA over a run lower. (3.65 to 4.90) To my mind, Harang would be the better choice between the two BECAUSE he walks more batters. I'm not saying Harang would be better than a pitcher with a lower WHIP - just better than a pitcher with a comparable WHIP and fewer walks.

This would only be true if you were leaving BAPIP out of the equation as well as GB rate and HR/FB rate. Going forward you would expect Harang's BAPIP to climb some and for him to give up a similar number of HR's as Haren.

Brock Beauchamp
08-21-2012, 01:45 PM
No reason not to leave him in the rotation for this year. If he is one of the top five starters entering 2013, that's a failure by management.

I somewhat disagree. It's going to be a real challenge to fill four rotation spots in one offseason. Say you have Diamond and Hendriks filling the first two spots. You add a decent FA for the third spot, maybe even the fourth spot if you get a guy in a trade.

That still leaves one spot open to fill. Given the "prospects" on the team after Hendriks, I'd just as soon see Deduno get a shot as anyone else on the roster.

COtwin
08-21-2012, 02:06 PM
No reason not to leave him in the rotation for this year. If he is one of the top five starters entering 2013, that's a failure by management.

I somewhat disagree. It's going to be a real challenge to fill four rotation spots in one offseason. Say you have Diamond and Hendriks filling the first two spots. You add a decent FA for the third spot, maybe even the fourth spot if you get a guy in a trade.

That still leaves one spot open to fill. Given the "prospects" on the team after Hendriks, I'd just as soon see Deduno get a shot as anyone else on the roster.


Agree. With how often we have let average or worse pitchers with average or worse stuff try to pull it together, Deduno should definitely be in the picture for next year. Lets say Diamond, Hendriks, and only one decent free agent. 2 spots remaining for Deduno, Hernandez, Devries, Walters, maybe Vasquez, Baker remote chance. Deduno has to be in the picture. He pitches fairly deep into games and doesn't saddle the team with big deficits. Sure only 25% of a seasons work, but we let way worse (results) pitchers go to the mound day after day. Marquis, Blackburn, Gray (RP so what), Pavano. Deduno has a much higher ceiling (IMO) than any of the 4 just mentioned, and probably higher than a couple of the others he'd be battling.

Mauerzy4Prez
08-21-2012, 03:35 PM
No reason not to leave him in the rotation for this year. If he is one of the top five starters entering 2013, that's a failure by management.

I somewhat disagree. It's going to be a real challenge to fill four rotation spots in one offseason. Say you have Diamond and Hendriks filling the first two spots. You add a decent FA for the third spot, maybe even the fourth spot if you get a guy in a trade.

That still leaves one spot open to fill. Given the "prospects" on the team after Hendriks, I'd just as soon see Deduno get a shot as anyone else on the roster.


Agree. With how often we have let average or worse pitchers with average or worse stuff try to pull it together, Deduno should definitely be in the picture for next year. Lets say Diamond, Hendriks, and only one decent free agent. 2 spots remaining for Deduno, Hernandez, Devries, Walters, maybe Vasquez, Baker remote chance. Deduno has to be in the picture. He pitches fairly deep into games and doesn't saddle the team with big deficits. Sure only 25% of a seasons work, but we let way worse (results) pitchers go to the mound day after day. Marquis, Blackburn, Gray (RP so what), Pavano. Deduno has a much higher ceiling (IMO) than any of the 4 just mentioned, and probably higher than a couple of the others he'd be battling.

Diamond and Henricks as our #1 and 2 is not good. Diamond is a #2-3 type pitcher on a legit staff, and Hendricks is right around the same. We have Gibson coming back next year hopefully by July, and I'd like to see him in the 2 spot. That leaves it up to the FO to pick up a solid #1 guy, and figure out their 4 and 5 spots... Personally I think they will end up giving Deduno, Duensing, maybe DeVries/Walters/Vasquez/Hernandez, a chance to fill up the back of the rotation. We will see how some of these young guys do in the next 45 games...

For all you that are going to rip me for mentioning Duensing, the main reason I have him listed is because everyone from the organization publicly talks about how they believe he can start in the major leagues. The Twins aren't as ready to give up on him as some of the fans might be.

Brock Beauchamp
08-21-2012, 03:46 PM
Diamond and Henricks as our #1 and 2 is not good. Diamond is a #2-3 type pitcher on a legit staff, and Hendricks is right around the same. We have Gibson coming back next year hopefully by July, and I'd like to see him in the 2 spot. That leaves it up to the FO to pick up a solid #1 guy, and figure out their 4 and 5 spots... Personally I think they will end up giving Deduno, Duensing, maybe DeVries/Walters/Vasquez/Hernandez, a chance to fill up the back of the rotation. We will see how some of these young guys do in the next 45 games...

For all you that are going to rip me for mentioning Duensing, the main reason I have him listed is because everyone from the organization publicly talks about how they believe he can start in the major leagues. The Twins aren't as ready to give up on him as some of the fans might be.

In no way is either Hendriks or Diamond a #1 pitcher. I was merely using those numbers as placeholders, not the intended position of each player in the rotation.

Teflon
08-21-2012, 06:01 PM
I think you would look for pitchers with comparable WHIPs and then compare the percentages of walks of each. My supposition would be that the pitcher with the higher walk total should give up fewer runs, barring a large discrepancy in extra-base hits between the two. For instance, Aaron Harang and Dan Haren have almost identical WHIPs (1.391) in a fairly comparable number of innings (143 - 129) with a similar number of strikeouts (112 - 101) Harang has walked twice as many batters (67) as Haren (33) but has an ERA over a run lower. (3.65 to 4.90) To my mind, Harang would be the better choice between the two BECAUSE he walks more batters. I'm not saying Harang would be better than a pitcher with a lower WHIP - just better than a pitcher with a comparable WHIP and fewer walks.

This would only be true if you were leaving BAPIP out of the equation as well as GB rate and HR/FB rate. Going forward you would expect Harang's BAPIP to climb some and for him to give up a similar number of HR's as Haren.

Irrelevant. My only point is that a walk is a better outcome than a hit. Deduno's walks hurt less than if they were hits.