PDA

View Full Version : Scot Baker back in 2012?



greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 01:22 PM
According to Star Tribune

The Twins likely will decline next year's $9.25 million option for righthander Scott Baker, making him a free agent, but it's possible the sides will agree to an incentive-laden deal.
Baker had Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery on April 18. He started throwing again this past week and expects to be pitching off a mound by late October, with no limitations by spring training.
"I truly believe I'm going to come back 100 percent, if not better, after what I've had to put up with the last two years," he said.
He turns 31 on Sept. 19 and is 63-48 with a 4.15 ERA in seven seasons with the Twins.
"I like it here," Baker said. "I'm not saying there aren't other great organizations because I'm sure there are, but this is all I know. My family likes it here. I'm comfortable."

Many of us have thought this is very possible & Baker sounds like he's all for it.
Im absolutely in favor of an incentive deal.....let him make $10m if makes 32/33 starts with 200+ IP. Give me an injury free season, & money isnt an issue. Scott's better than most FA options out there.
Problem is, I absolutely believe Pavano will be back.....that puts Carl/ 2 Scotts & Blackburn in rotation (Gardy said in last nites postgame...."Blackburn will be in the mix for the starting rotation next yr, but he will have to earn it"...yeah right).
Dont see much change coming.

Brock Beauchamp
08-12-2012, 01:28 PM
I don't see Pavano coming back. JR knows that the team needs to get younger and after Carl's injury "recovery" program, I don't think the organization is very high on him coming back next season. Why would they want him back?

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 01:36 PM
I don't see Pavano coming back. JR knows that the team needs to get younger and after Carl's injury "recovery" program, I don't think the organization is very high on him coming back next season. Why would they want him back?
WHY...cmon PIG. Cause its the Twins/Terry Ryan/Gardy & they LOVE the status quo.
Cant you hear the press conference......"Carl is now healthy & was better than anything on the FA market He is ready to go and we think he can get back to his 2010 form & give us 200 innings next yr. We feel we have 2 aces now with Diamond/Pavano."

Brock Beauchamp
08-12-2012, 01:43 PM
I don't see Pavano coming back. JR knows that the team needs to get younger and after Carl's injury "recovery" program, I don't think the organization is very high on him coming back next season. Why would they want him back?
WHY...cmon PIG. Cause its the Twins/Terry Ryan/Gardy & they LOVE the status quo.
Cant you hear the press conference......"Carl is now healthy & was better than anything on the FA market He is ready to go and we think he can get back to his 2010 form & give us 200 innings next yr. We feel we have 2 aces now with Diamond/Pavano."

Do you really think JR is that dumb? Last offseason, he jettisoned two expensive players and signed a cheaper, better replacement in their stead. He also addressed a real need and picked up a multi-faceted backup catcher/DH type and then retained that guy mid-season.

He has money now. This isn't 2003 where his only option was to scrape the barrel to sign Pitcherpotamus or "Lil Pedro". The Twins don't need Pavano. In fact, they need the exact opposite of Carl Pavano. They have the money to go get someone who isn't Carl Pavano. There isn't any reason to believe they will retain Pavano unless they feel the need for a #5 guy to compete with Blackburn (and given Pavano's age and the Twins expectation to compete in 2013, that's unlikely).

Taking a flyer on Scott Baker makes all the sense in the world. Giving Pavano a few million to throw junk innings when you are already paying another guy $5m to throw junk innings doesn't.

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 01:54 PM
This was a great offensive offseason for MN, no question.....
However, this team has never changed its pitching philosiphy & I cannot go on good faith until I see it happen. Even last season, the 3 top pitchers they pursued were Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm & Marquis. No great arms there.....none better than a cheaper Pavano. Now, Im NOT advocating they sign Carl, Im just predicting they will fall back into old habits.
They can prove they are changing their approach by releasing/trading Blackburn (picking up his salary) but they wont.
Other than Edwin Jackson (who's on a winner now), I havent seen any FA's Im in love with but think they will target Joe Blanton/Jeremy Gurhrie types.....they are in Pav's company at least

Brock Beauchamp
08-12-2012, 02:01 PM
This was a great offensive offseason for MN, no question.....
However, this team has never changed its pitching philosiphy & I cannot go on good faith until I see it happen. Even last season, the 3 top pitchers they pursued were Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm & Marquis. No great arms there.....none better than a cheaper Pavano. Now, Im NOT advocating they sign Carl, Im just predicting they will fall back into old habits.
They can prove they are changing their approach by releasing/trading Blackburn (picking up his salary) but they wont.
Other than Edwin Jackson (who's on a winner now), I havent seen any FA's Im in love with but think they will target Joe Blanton/Jeremy Gurhrie types.....they are in Pav's company at least

By the time Ryan addressed pitching, he didn't have much money left in the bank to do it. It wasn't surprising they went after Marquis (didn't like the signing but whatever).

Going into this offseason, the Twins have few immediate needs with position players (they can probably get by with their middle infield as-is) and an overwhelming need for starting pitchers. They should also have at least $15m to spend on those pitchers, probably more. This offseason is going to see the best FA pitching crop I've seen in awhile. There is no reason to believe that the Twins won't be competitive in trying to pick up one of those guys.

We've never been in a situation where there were a bunch of quality starters on the market and the Twins had money to spend on them. History has very little to do with the Twins' current situation and what the front office plans to do.

As for releasing Blackburn, there really isn't a reason to do it. Why bother? It doesn't make sense to kick guys to the curb until you have better guys to replace them. The Twins don't have anyone better than Blackburn in the #5 spot right now.

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 02:16 PM
w/Blackie....I am talking about the offseason to get rid of him. Assume when Pav is back, he starts over Blacky & Liam may get 4/5 Sept starts also.
It is an arguement on both sides since this is a different money situation since Ryan took back over. I still am in a 'wait & see' mood.
I didnt think we spent that much money last offseason on hitting.....just changed out Kubel/Cuddy for Willy/Doumit/Carrol....money spent stayed about the same/just changed team philosiphy on whom to spend it on.
I believe they would trade for a 10m pitcher (james shields???) before they would on a FA (TR never been a guy to get into a bidding war).
Who are the 'bunch of quality starters'?? There is no way they bid on Grienke, IMO. Drawing a blank on others.

Brock Beauchamp
08-12-2012, 02:29 PM
w/Blackie....I am talking about the offseason to get rid of him. Assume when Pav is back, he starts over Blacky & Liam may get 4/5 Sept starts also.
It is an arguement on both sides since this is a different money situation since Ryan took back over. I still am in a 'wait & see' mood.
I didnt think we spent that much money last offseason on hitting.....just changed out Kubel/Cuddy for Willy/Doumit/Carrol....money spent stayed about the same/just changed team philosiphy on whom to spend it on.
I believe they would trade for a 10m pitcher (james shields???) before they would on a FA (TR never been a guy to get into a bidding war).
Who are the 'bunch of quality starters'?? There is no way they bid on Grienke, IMO. Drawing a blank on others.

Jackson, Sanchez, Greinke, Liriano, Marcum, Saunders, Shields (not sure?), Peavy (team option). There are others, those are just the guys off the top of my head. There are a lot of guys entering the market this offseason.

The Twins didn't spend a lot of money on hitting last offseason because JR didn't have a ton of money last offseason. But he spent over $15m on the FA market and spent that money intelligently (in most cases). There is more money available this offseason and there's no reason not to expect the same approach to the market.

Why would you pay Carl Pavano to start for you when you have Nick Blackburn on the roster? I honestly don't see much difference between the two and you're just throwing bad money after bad money at that point. You may as well keep Blackburn around and see if he can return to an acceptable level of play rather than pay Pavano to put forth what might be an equally awful performance in 2013.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-12-2012, 02:34 PM
I'd bring Pavano back on a minor league deal as it can't really hurt anything.
I'd definitely bring Baker back on an incentive based deal, hell give him the $3 mil base you'd give to the next Marquis and let him earn up to 8 mil.

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 02:57 PM
w/Blackie....I am talking about the offseason to get rid of him. Assume when Pav is back, he starts over Blacky & Liam may get 4/5 Sept starts also.
It is an arguement on both sides since this is a different money situation since Ryan took back over. I still am in a 'wait & see' mood.
I didnt think we spent that much money last offseason on hitting.....just changed out Kubel/Cuddy for Willy/Doumit/Carrol....money spent stayed about the same/just changed team philosiphy on whom to spend it on.
I believe they would trade for a 10m pitcher (james shields???) before they would on a FA (TR never been a guy to get into a bidding war).
Who are the 'bunch of quality starters'?? There is no way they bid on Grienke, IMO. Drawing a blank on others.

Jackson, Sanchez, Greinke, Liriano, Marcum, Saunders, Shields (not sure?), Peavy (team option). There are others, those are just the guys off the top of my head. There are a lot of guys entering the market this offseason.

The Twins didn't spend a lot of money on hitting last offseason because JR didn't have a ton of money last offseason. But he spent over $15m on the FA market and spent that money intelligently (in most cases). There is more money available this offseason and there's no reason not to expect the same approach to the market.

Why would you pay Carl Pavano to start for you when you have Nick Blackburn on the roster? I honestly don't see much difference between the two and you're just throwing bad money after bad money at that point. You may as well keep Blackburn around and see if he can return to an acceptable level of play rather than pay Pavano to put forth what might be an equally awful performance in 2013.
Dont love that list. Dont think there is any shot on Grienke....none, IMO.
Like Edwin Jackson alot. Pass on Sanchez, Franke, Saunders....no better than Blanton/Guthrie IMO.
Marcum is a Twins type pitcher.....Pavano like, but can get strikeouts. Elbow injury has to scare many off....esp with this teams medical staff. Do like him if healthy
Peavy has a team option which Ive read CHI may NOT pick up. All in on him if available. Would be a bidding war & that will scare off TRyan IMO.
Shields, by trade, would be my #1 option. He is a tad overrated, BUT in a pitchers park with his durabilit & nice contract (team options) he could be very nice. Could want Span (is from Tampa) among others, as they lose Upton....Tampa loves team friendly contracts.

Brock Beauchamp
08-12-2012, 03:01 PM
Out of curiosity, what do you like about Jackson but not Sanchez?

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 03:03 PM
How well would Peavy fare with MN??? 19 of 22 gms he's gone over 100 pitches (first 2 gms of yr didnt). Twins, with his health status, would limit him to 95/100 per nite. May not be worth 15m you'ld have to give him.

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 03:09 PM
Out of curiosity, what do you like about Jackson but not Sanchez?
Durability....31+ starts each of last 5 yrs...no arm/shoulder troubles
pretty decent (great for MN) K numbers/control gotten better past 3/4yrs
Harder thrower (94.1 mph per fangraphs/career) for variety on our staff

Jeremy Nygaard
08-12-2012, 03:13 PM
Jair Jurrjens, who will probably be non-tendered by the Braves, has been brutal this year. But he's still young and has shown glimpses throughout his career. The Twins should at least take a look, though he's advised by Scott Boras, he'd offer potential for less than a lot of those older guys mentioned above. Plus, he could slot into the "inconsistent tease" slot that Liriano has vacated.

I think he would also fit what the Twins will try to do in the offseason... not spend a ton, but potentially - if he returns to his 2011 form - fill a big need.

BTW - in 2011, he went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA.

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 03:17 PM
definately look into Jurrgens....for sure. Like somone with better K rates over him tho

Badsmerf
08-12-2012, 03:18 PM
This offseason is much different than last. Baker, Pavano, and Liriano were supposed to anchor the rotation. Baker and Pavano obviously got injured and Liriano imploded. I can't fault JR too much for that, especially considering the FA market was pretty bad. There will be money to spend on someone this year. I really don't understand all your negativity greengoblin. The Twins have had a few bad season with their organizational starting pitchers blowing up. Add Gibson, Baker and a FA to the starting rotation and this team is good again playing meaning baseball.

Personally, I want Grienke. Having a rotation of Grienke, Baker, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson will win a lot of games IMO. That would likely be the best rotation in the Central, with a chance to be better. Obviously Baker and Gibson are question marks at this point, but there is enough depth in the system to get by if they need time in AAA at any point in the season.

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 03:31 PM
This offseason is much different than last. Baker, Pavano, and Liriano were supposed to anchor the rotation. Baker and Pavano obviously got injured and Liriano imploded. I can't fault JR too much for that, especially considering the FA market was pretty bad. There will be money to spend on someone this year. I really don't understand all your negativity greengoblin. The Twins have had a few bad season with their organizational starting pitchers blowing up. Add Gibson, Baker and a FA to the starting rotation and this team is good again playing meaning baseball.

Personally, I want Grienke. Having a rotation of Grienke, Baker, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson will win a lot of games IMO. That would likely be the best rotation in the Central, with a chance to be better. Obviously Baker and Gibson are question marks at this point, but there is enough depth in the system to get by if they need time in AAA at any point in the season.

I dont think Im being negative on it....untill I see MN bid on a FA pitcher/player, I just dont believe they will.
They have a philosiphy & have stuck to it hard. I have no reason to believe they will go away from it.....(includes having money to spend/pitch counts/young players not playing/holding onto junk way too long/soft tossing vet pitchers). Now they have always (??) been fairly active in trades...just not FAgency.
Even the position players they spent on in FA werent 'big' money. 7m for Josh, 3m for Doumit/Carroll. That's still the Twins way of doin things relatively cheaply. Worked out GREAT tho.
They WONT get rid of Blackburn. Jettisoning him will show their is a new way to deal with things. They wont IMO.
I just wont give em the benefit of the doubt....prove it first is my feeling. They will have a 100m payroll (top 10/15) but will still do it on the 'cheap'....not that its a bad thing.

Badsmerf
08-12-2012, 03:37 PM
Jair Jurrjens, who will probably be non-tendered by the Braves, has been brutal this year. But he's still young and has shown glimpses throughout his career. The Twins should at least take a look, though he's advised by Scott Boras, he'd offer potential for less than a lot of those older guys mentioned above. Plus, he could slot into the "inconsistent tease" slot that Liriano has vacated.

I think he would also fit what the Twins will try to do in the offseason... not spend a ton, but potentially - if he returns to his 2011 form - fill a big need.

BTW - in 2011, he went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA.

I like Jurrjens a lot. I think it might just be time for a change of scenery for him like it was for Lohse with the Twins. Adding him, one of the 2nd tier starters and this team looks better already.

Seth Stohs
08-12-2012, 03:41 PM
I would never go over $10 million per year on a pitcher, and I would never go more than 3 years on a pitcher (unless he's 28 or less). So, that means 3 years and $30 million cap. I think you might be able to get Anibal Sanchez and maybe Edwin Jackson for that. I'd definitely take a flyer on Jurrjens on like a 1 year, $4 million or 2 year, $7 million deal. And, I would absolutely bring back Scott Baker. And, I would absolutely not bring back Carl Pavano.

drunksam
08-12-2012, 03:41 PM
Personally, I want Grienke. Having a rotation of Grienke, Baker, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson will win a lot of games IMO. That would likely be the best rotation in the Central, with a chance to be better. Obviously Baker and Gibson are question marks at this point, but there is enough depth in the system to get by if they need time in AAA at any point in the season.


This. Grienkie, Grienkie, and more Grienkie. He should be a priority target. Diamond/Hendricks/Blackburn/filler until Gibby's ready should be near the top in this division if Grienkie's added. Typing Blackburn's name was painful, but do you have him in the pen or the rotation next year? Doubtful we cut him lose with 5+ million still owed to the swashbuckler.

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 03:49 PM
Out of curiosity, what do you like about Jackson but not Sanchez?
sorry...was thinking Jonathon Sanchez, not Annibal. Like Annibal, but would favor Edwin more

Brock Beauchamp
08-12-2012, 03:57 PM
Out of curiosity, what do you like about Jackson but not Sanchez?
sorry...was thinking Jonathon Sanchez, not Annibal. Like Annibal, but would favor Edwin more

Ah, that makes more sense.

Reginald Maudling's Shin
08-12-2012, 05:13 PM
By the time Ryan addressed pitching, he didn't have much money left in the bank to do it. It wasn't surprising they went after Marquis (didn't like the signing but whatever).

Going into this offseason, the Twins have few immediate needs with position players (they can probably get by with their middle infield as-is) and an overwhelming need for starting pitchers. They should also have at least $15m to spend on those pitchers, probably more. This offseason is going to see the best FA pitching crop I've seen in awhile. There is no reason to believe that the Twins won't be competitive in trying to pick up one of those guys.

We've never been in a situation where there were a bunch of quality starters on the market and the Twins had money to spend on them. History has very little to do with the Twins' current situation and what the front office plans to do.

As for releasing Blackburn, there really isn't a reason to do it. Why bother? It doesn't make sense to kick guys to the curb until you have better guys to replace them. The Twins don't have anyone better than Blackburn in the #5 spot right now.
There is no one better than Blackburn? BJ friggin Hermsen could replicate Blackburn's "production" over the past few years. Blackburn provides nothing a Manshipian AAA/AAAA guy can't give you at this point.

This $5 Million is a sunk cost. If Twins want to behave like a small market team and trot him out there every 5 days to save 5% of the payroll then I'll be disappointed. I'd rather give Baker and his bloody stump of an arm a shot as well.

Thrylos
08-12-2012, 05:32 PM
Jair Jurrjens, who will probably be non-tendered by the Braves, has been brutal this year. But he's still young and has shown glimpses throughout his career. The Twins should at least take a look, though he's advised by Scott Boras, he'd offer potential for less than a lot of those older guys mentioned above. Plus, he could slot into the "inconsistent tease" slot that Liriano has vacated.

I think he would also fit what the Twins will try to do in the offseason... not spend a ton, but potentially - if he returns to his 2011 form - fill a big need.

BTW - in 2011, he went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA.

Didn't he play for Team Netherlands in one of the WBCs when Bert was the pitching coach?

He does make sense

And I hope they do not sign Pavano for anything. I actually won't be surprised if he is retired. At this point, I'd rather see them pitch BJ Hermsen/Liam Hendriks/insert-name-of-less-than-25-minor-leaguer-here than Pavano.

Jim H
08-12-2012, 05:55 PM
I tend to agree with most of the comments on this thread. I don't think they sign Pavano. Make an effort to sign Baker. I never understand what people see in Edwin Jackson. He appears to be a right handed version of Liriano, maybe more durable, not any more consistent.

I would like to see them take a run at Grienke. It probably is more about the years then what he would cost per year. Given that Grienke is pretty unlikely, I would like to see them acquire 2 proven starters plus Baker. I mid-level 1 year contract free agent and maybe a somewhat younger guy acquired in trade. I have no idea how feasible that is, but Diamond and perhaps Hendriks and Hermsen potentially filling the backend of the rotation at some point, you could have some depth in 2013.

Even if they resign Baker, I don't know that you can count on either him or Gibson to be able to contribute during the whole season.

greengoblinrulz
08-12-2012, 06:00 PM
By the time Ryan addressed pitching, he didn't have much money left in the bank to do it. It wasn't surprising they went after Marquis (didn't like the signing but whatever).

Going into this offseason, the Twins have few immediate needs with position players (they can probably get by with their middle infield as-is) and an overwhelming need for starting pitchers. They should also have at least $15m to spend on those pitchers, probably more. This offseason is going to see the best FA pitching crop I've seen in awhile. There is no reason to believe that the Twins won't be competitive in trying to pick up one of those guys.

We've never been in a situation where there were a bunch of quality starters on the market and the Twins had money to spend on them. History has very little to do with the Twins' current situation and what the front office plans to do.

As for releasing Blackburn, there really isn't a reason to do it. Why bother? It doesn't make sense to kick guys to the curb until you have better guys to replace them. The Twins don't have anyone better than Blackburn in the #5 spot right now.
There is no one better than Blackburn? BJ friggin Hermsen could replicate Blackburn's "production" over the past few years. Blackburn provides nothing a Manshipian AAA/AAAA guy can't give you at this point.

This $5 Million is a sunk cost. If Twins want to behave like a small market team and trot him out there every 5 days to save 5% of the payroll then I'll be disappointed. I'd rather give Baker and his bloody stump of an arm a shot as well.
They already announced that Blackburn is one of the starter for 13' (obviously that can change) after last nites gm.
They are small market team untill they show they are willing to burn the Blacky/Nishi contracts AND then spend 90/100m. Payroll isnt the main concern for next yr for me tho.

Jurrjens was on the 06 Netherlands team but not the 09 team.

AGAIN, I am not promoting the Twins to resign Pavano, but predicting it on the teams past history of how they operate.

Brandon
08-12-2012, 07:02 PM
If we retain Baker on an incentive filled contract we should have the money available to fill all of our needs. Here would be my projected rotation.

Blanton
Baker
Diamond
Blackburn
Devries, Hendricks, Walters, Deduno

Gibson will be in play around June/July for a rotation spot and Blackburn could lose his spot at any time. I would prefer to get another starter but we will have depth next year. I do think DeVries is the best 5th starter candidate at this point.

I also wanted to add that Minn could address the other hole on out team either aquiring a 2b or SS and move Dozier to 2nd. Or signing one but I dont see tomany options out there.

And with Butera, Mastroianni, and Carroll on the bench with the flexibilty of Doumit, we could sign a bench bat to help the offense. outside of Thome no real suggestions but having a bat off the bench sounds like a good idea Thome or not.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-12-2012, 07:05 PM
Grienke is nice, but I wouldn't give him the 100 mil he will command.

rickyhawaii
08-12-2012, 07:26 PM
I'd like the Twins to do more bargain hunting as well.. maybe work out some trades. I'd like to see the Twins try and pry off a guy like Rick VandenHurk or sign(not sure his contract status..) VandenHurk has put up decent statlines and could be useful if given a shot.. I hope they bring back Baker..

roger
08-12-2012, 07:28 PM
I would never go over $10 million per year on a pitcher, and I would never go more than 3 years on a pitcher (unless he's 28 or less). So, that means 3 years and $30 million cap. I think you might be able to get Anibal Sanchez and maybe Edwin Jackson for that. I'd definitely take a flyer on Jurrjens on like a 1 year, $4 million or 2 year, $7 million deal. And, I would absolutely bring back Scott Baker. And, I would absolutely not bring back Carl Pavano.

Seth, I saw Jurrjens pitch against the Red Wings twice this year. The games were about a week apart. In the first, the Wings hit him all over Frontier Field. He really struggled to get outs. The second start went to him as the Wings couldn't do anything. Not certain what I feel about this guy. I know he was an all-star not all that long ago. But which Jurrjens are you getting? Maybe a minor league deal of some sort or a one year deal with a lot of incentives, but no way over one year.

Badsmerf
08-12-2012, 07:31 PM
Grienke is nice, but I wouldn't give him the 100 mil he will command.

If its 100 mil the Twins will pass. I'm not sure what their/his number would be, but I would do 80-90. It is going to be a big decision for Grienke, since this will likely be his biggest contract and a significant portion of his career. I really don't see the Twins doing it, but I really wish they would.

Riverbrian
08-12-2012, 08:33 PM
Grienke is nice, but I wouldn't give him the 100 mil he will command.

I agree... I would love to have Grienke...This team needs Greinke...but... He's going to make big bucks and his stats are good but not big bucks good.

If the Twins pay it... I'll be happy... But...he's going to require some serious money.

jokin
08-12-2012, 09:34 PM
Jair Jurrjens, who will probably be non-tendered by the Braves, has been brutal this year. But he's still young and has shown glimpses throughout his career. The Twins should at least take a look, though he's advised by Scott Boras, he'd offer potential for less than a lot of those older guys mentioned above. Plus, he could slot into the "inconsistent tease" slot that Liriano has vacated.

I think he would also fit what the Twins will try to do in the offseason... not spend a ton, but potentially - if he returns to his 2011 form - fill a big need.

BTW - in 2011, he went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA.

Didn't he play for Team Netherlands in one of the WBCs when Bert was the pitching coach?

He does make sense

And I hope they do not sign Pavano for anything. I actually won't be surprised if he is retired. At this point, I'd rather see them pitch BJ Hermsen/Liam Hendriks/insert-name-of-less-than-25-minor-leaguer-here than Pavano.

Agreed, and the 3 other minor leaguers I proposed previously. Get them up for an extended audition in the low-pressure environment of the dog days in a soon-forgotten and lost season. Don't worry for one second about creating 40-man roster space on this ship's manifest, get the ballast and bilge pumps in full gear, virtually no DFA candidate-lead weight thrown overboard will be picked up by another boat anyways. Let Duensing resume the role he does competently, Blackie to long relief and stop pretending that Pavano should return and anchor the SP staff, time to move on.

nicksaviking
08-12-2012, 11:35 PM
I would never go over $10 million per year on a pitcher, and I would never go more than 3 years on a pitcher (unless he's 28 or less). So, that means 3 years and $30 million cap. I think you might be able to get Anibal Sanchez and maybe Edwin Jackson for that. I'd definitely take a flyer on Jurrjens on like a 1 year, $4 million or 2 year, $7 million deal. And, I would absolutely bring back Scott Baker. And, I would absolutely not bring back Carl Pavano.

So do you feel you don't need an ace to win a World Series, or is trying to win a World Series not worth the price of paying an ace? Doesn't matter really, Ryan feels the same way except he doesn't even give out two year deals unless the guy has already been a Twin.

Not that the Twins would be at the top of his list, but if Dan Haren's $15 million option isn't picked up by the Angles, and it very well may not if they have sights on re-signing Zack Greinke, he might take a one year rebound contract.

Fire Dan Gladden
08-12-2012, 11:51 PM
I would never go over $10 million per year on a pitcher, and I would never go more than 3 years on a pitcher (unless he's 28 or less). So, that means 3 years and $30 million cap. I think you might be able to get Anibal Sanchez and maybe Edwin Jackson for that. I'd definitely take a flyer on Jurrjens on like a 1 year, $4 million or 2 year, $7 million deal. And, I would absolutely bring back Scott Baker. And, I would absolutely not bring back Carl Pavano.

I agree 100% with everything Seth says here. Big contracts in general rarely work out, big contracts for pitchers are even worse. Joe Mauer may not be a full time catcher anymore, but his bat is still devastating. A pitcher can't pitch and the money is absolutely sunk. I believe Grienke would be the ideal fit here, considering his makeup, but he will command more than the Twins should pay. It would be nice to have that #1 for the playoffs, but people screamed at the $6 million given to Capps (myself included) and he was passable before the injury. Imagine a Twins pitcher making $14 million and not performing well. This site would blow up. TR would never be forgiven.

DPJ
08-13-2012, 07:41 AM
How in the hell does Edwin Jackson go on a 1/11 deal with the Nats to now an estimated 3/30 in a pitching market that was just as weak as last season?

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2012, 08:05 AM
How in the hell does Edwin Jackson go on a 1/11 deal with the Nats to now an estimated 3/30 in a pitching market that was just as weak as last season?

Didn't Jackson choose to go to the Nats on a one year deal after firing Boras? Or did he fire Boras after the deal?

edit: He fired him after the deal but it was reported that he turned down a three year deal with the Pirates (not mentioned in this article, looking for other articles to back it up).

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/edwin-jackson-to-join-legacy-agency.html

edit 2: Yeah, he turned down multi-year deals from other clubs reported here.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/22/edwin-jackson-is-dropping-super-agent-scott-boras/

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2012, 08:14 AM
There is no one better than Blackburn? BJ friggin Hermsen could replicate Blackburn's "production" over the past few years. Blackburn provides nothing a Manshipian AAA/AAAA guy can't give you at this point.

This $5 Million is a sunk cost. If Twins want to behave like a small market team and trot him out there every 5 days to save 5% of the payroll then I'll be disappointed. I'd rather give Baker and his bloody stump of an arm a shot as well.

I'm all for dumping Blackburn. Maybe in the offseason, maybe earlier if Hendriks comes up and performs and the team decides to keep Duensing in the rotation. Maybe early next season if the team really wants to give him another shot (ugh).

But right now? I don't see the point. BJ Hermsen could factor into the equation next season (not high on him at all) but I don't see the reason to rush the kid to the majors just to jettison Blackburn in a lost season. He hasn't pitched a full season above A ball yet and could definitely use more seasoning. Stunting the development of a young player just because you hate a guy on the ML squad isn't a valid reason to call him up.

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2012, 08:20 AM
I would never go over $10 million per year on a pitcher, and I would never go more than 3 years on a pitcher (unless he's 28 or less). So, that means 3 years and $30 million cap. I think you might be able to get Anibal Sanchez and maybe Edwin Jackson for that. I'd definitely take a flyer on Jurrjens on like a 1 year, $4 million or 2 year, $7 million deal. And, I would absolutely bring back Scott Baker. And, I would absolutely not bring back Carl Pavano.

I agree 100% with everything Seth says here. Big contracts in general rarely work out, big contracts for pitchers are even worse. Joe Mauer may not be a full time catcher anymore, but his bat is still devastating. A pitcher can't pitch and the money is absolutely sunk. I believe Grienke would be the ideal fit here, considering his makeup, but he will command more than the Twins should pay. It would be nice to have that #1 for the playoffs, but people screamed at the $6 million given to Capps (myself included) and he was passable before the injury. Imagine a Twins pitcher making $14 million and not performing well. This site would blow up. TR would never be forgiven.

To put it bluntly, I don't see how this team is going to be competitive before 2015 without picking up a quality FA pitcher. In theory, it's great to go after short-term, relatively cheap contracts for pitchers.

When your rotation is this awful, that's a luxury you can't take if you want to field a competitive team. The Twins need at least two new starters. It can be argued they need as many as four. You're not going to field a competitive team by throwing $6-8m at 2-3 guys and hoping they all stick. You're going to get a lot more Jason Marquis that way than you will 2010 Carl Pavano. Which puts the Twins in the same spot they are today. A decent offense, a few star players in their prime, and a wretched rotation that keeps them out of contention.

The Twins don't need to go for Greinke. They don't need to go for a Hamels type player. They need guys who can pitch to the major league average (or better) while they try to develop better pitchers in the minors. It wouldn't kill this team to throw $11-13 million a year for 3-4 years at a player like Sanchez, Jackson, or another starter on the right side of 30. The Twins have a boatload of money coming off the books in the next 18 months. They can afford to buy a guy that doesn't suck. They don't need to go spend $100m on a guy like Greinke (as much as I like Zack), they just need to field guys who aren't completely freakin' awful.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-13-2012, 08:49 AM
If I were the Twins I would try to work out a trade for Josh Johnson and try to sign him to an extension prior to the season.

DPJ
08-13-2012, 09:19 AM
If I were the Twins I would try to work out a trade for Josh Johnson and try to sign him to an extension prior to the season.

K-rates down, velocity is down...NO THANKS!!!

Thrylos
08-13-2012, 09:24 AM
To put it bluntly, I don't see how this team is going to be competitive before 2015 without picking up a quality FA pitcher. In theory, it's great to go after short-term, relatively cheap contracts for pitchers.

I think that they need to pick 2 starters better than Diamond to be competitive. Doesn't have to be through Free Agency. They can pick them in a trade.

Speaking about a certain potential free agent starting pitcher, do you remember our discussion about how Hannibal ante portas Sanchez was going to do in the AL? He is doing even worse that I thought... He is pitching tonight against the Twins btw, so we will see if that K/9 moves to De Vries territory ;)

Buck Nasty
08-13-2012, 09:40 AM
I don't see signing Baker as anything that will help this club - at least next year. I mean...I've read a lot of people on here questioning how much Kyle Gibson can be counted on to contribute next year and he's 9 months ahead of Baker in recovery time. Furthermore, I'll bet if we looked back on message boards from when Baker was pitching, there were plenty of people who thought he wasn't anything special anyhow (although I always like the guy). I just don't see why it would make sense to risk money towards Baker. And let's forget about Baker taking the "home town discount" because he loves it here. He's going to go where he gets the best deal. To me, knowing this team needs a proven innings eater, it would make sense to bank any money that would be spent to retain Baker and go after a healthy arm that can be counted on for a full year of work.

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2012, 09:41 AM
To put it bluntly, I don't see how this team is going to be competitive before 2015 without picking up a quality FA pitcher. In theory, it's great to go after short-term, relatively cheap contracts for pitchers.

I think that they need to pick 2 starters better than Diamond to be competitive. Doesn't have to be through Free Agency. They can pick them in a trade.

Speaking about a certain potential free agent starting pitcher, do you remember our discussion about how Hannibal ante portas Sanchez was going to do in the AL? He is doing even worse that I thought... He is pitching tonight against the Twins btw, so we will see if that K/9 moves to De Vries territory ;)

Way too SSS to matter at this point. What has he made, three starts?

The Twins probably aren't going to pick up two starters via trade... Not ones that help in 2013, anyway. If they spring for a Jackson-type in the offseason, trade Span for a pitcher, and hope Hendriks/Gibson are ready sooner rather than later, they have a shot at competing in 2013. Throw junk money at another question mark and the Twins are probably looking at another 2012 again.

Talking about Sanchez... Wow, he's been a pretty lousy pitcher for awhile now. His June was brutal, his July pretty bad, and his starts with Detroit in August have been equally brutal. I wonder if there's something wrong with him.

kab21
08-13-2012, 11:34 AM
How in the hell does Edwin Jackson go on a 1/11 deal with the Nats to now an estimated 3/30 in a pitching market that was just as weak as last season?

He took a one year contract on a favorable team so he could go after his multi year contract.

kab21
08-13-2012, 11:37 AM
Jurrjens arm is completely trashed. Pick him up as a Jared Burton/Joel Zumaya type flier but you can't count on him for anything.

Thrylos
08-13-2012, 01:09 PM
Jurrjens arm is completely trashed. Pick him up as a Jared Burton/Joel Zumaya type flier but you can't count on him for anything.

Just checked fangraphs... He is down 4 mph off his peak velocity for FB (sits at 88ish) and Change and 3 mph off on the slider. Yeah, you might have something here...

On the other hand, 88 mph fastball and 3.6 K/9 is exactly what the Twins have been looking in free agent pitchers recently

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-13-2012, 01:15 PM
If I were the Twins I would try to work out a trade for Josh Johnson and try to sign him to an extension prior to the season.

K-rates down, velocity is down...NO THANKS!!!
http://cdn.brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/card_imgs/435178.mph.L.png

He was coming off a pretty major injury.

He has been a bit up and down this year, but after a pretty brutal start he has put together a nice last 15 starts or so, with his k/9 approaching 9 again.
I think he would be the perfect guy to grab and extend. He may not be an "ace" but he has a good shot to be a very solid #2.

Blackjack
08-13-2012, 01:37 PM
Even if they resign Baker, I don't know that you can count on either him or Gibson to be able to contribute during the whole season.

I agree, with both coming off injuries, they'll be very cautious with both. And when was the last time Baker pitched a full season without going on the DL?

I'm going to bet that they resign Pavano. Twins like 'innings eaters', before he got hurt this year, thats what he was. If he comes back in Sept., has 3-4 good six inning starts, they can sign him to a low base salary with incentives for innings pitched. He can pitch early on while Baker and Gibson get up to speed, if he sucks, release him or trade him. If heís good, itís a good gamble.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-13-2012, 03:04 PM
Even if they resign Baker, I don't know that you can count on either him or Gibson to be able to contribute during the whole season.

I agree, with both coming off injuries, they'll be very cautious with both. And when was the last time Baker pitched a full season without going on the DL?

I'm going to bet that they resign Pavano. Twins like 'innings eaters', before he got hurt this year, thats what he was. If he comes back in Sept., has 3-4 good six inning starts, they can sign him to a low base salary with incentives for innings pitched. He can pitch early on while Baker and Gibson get up to speed, if he sucks, release him or trade him. If heís good, itís a good gamble.
I doubt Pavano will be back, he would have to come back and have some nice starts for any team to give him a major league contract heading into next year.

However, I would rather the Twins sign a guy like Pavano to be their #5 veteran presence guy instead of Marquis/Hernandez/(insert other ****ty NL pitcher here)
Ideally they don't need to do that though.

DPJ
08-13-2012, 03:09 PM
However, I would rather the Twins sign a guy like Pavano to be their #5 veteran presence guy instead of Marquis/Hernandez/(insert other ****ty NL pitcher here)
Ideally they don't need to do that though.


Pavano might not be any better then either of those guys at this point.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-13-2012, 03:41 PM
However, I would rather the Twins sign a guy like Pavano to be their #5 veteran presence guy instead of Marquis/Hernandez/(insert other ****ty NL pitcher here)
Ideally they don't need to do that though.


Pavano might not be any better then either of those guys at this point.
Of course, that is why I'd prefer a minor league contract.