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View Full Version : Aaron Hicks 3rd best prospect in the system?



SpiritofVodkaDave
08-11-2012, 02:08 PM
-I think its pretty apparent that Sano and Buxton are a clear cut 1 and 2 in the system.

-Hicks now has upped his OPS in AA to .849 has a career high 27 SB and career high of 12 HR, add that to an elite arm and elite defense overall and we could be looking at him to hit his ceiling down the road.

At this point I would put him above Arcia, and would have to imagine Hicks will crack the majority of top 50 lists heading into 2013.

darin617
08-11-2012, 02:18 PM
-I think its pretty apparent that Sano and Buxton are a clear cut 1 and 2 in the system.

-Hicks now has upped his OPS in AA to .849 has a career high 27 SB and career high of 12 HR, add that to an elite arm and elite defense overall and we could be looking at him to hit his ceiling down the road.

At this point I would put him above Arcia, and would have to imagine Hicks will crack the majority of top 50 lists heading into 2013.

Top 50 lists of Twins Prospects? Just had to comment on that.

greengoblinrulz
08-11-2012, 02:23 PM
no doubt Hicks will be top 50 again. He's already had 3 top 50 yrs & he's finally fullfilling his promise. I just wonder if he could get top 25.
Arguement of top 5 order is fun as you can make a solid arguement for any of em after Sano & maybe a couple before him!!
I think they will have all 5 in top 50....top 75 for sure. Wonder if Gibson will crack it again despite his age.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-11-2012, 02:40 PM
no doubt Hicks will be top 50 again. He's already had 3 top 50 yrs & he's finally fullfilling his promise. I just wonder if he could get top 25.
Arguement of top 5 order is fun as you can make a solid arguement for any of em after Sano & maybe a couple before him!!
I think they will have all 5 in top 50....top 75 for sure. Wonder if Gibson will crack it again despite his age.

I'm not sure Arcia is top 50, and I could almost gurantee Rosario won't be in the top 50. I could see Arcia in the 60-80 range and could see Rasario sneak into a few lists as well.

Gibson should def be a top 100 guy. But I could see him left off most lists. Not that any of the "lists" matter much.

Seth Stohs
08-11-2012, 03:01 PM
exactly, it doesn't matter whether Gibson is 95 or 115. His upside as a pitcher is the same regardless...

As of today, I think I'd rank them.... 1.) Sano, 2.) Buxton, 3.) Hicks, 4.) Rosario, 5.) Arcia, 6.) Berrios, 7.) Gibson... subject to change daily. Ha!

greengoblinrulz
08-11-2012, 03:34 PM
exactly, it doesn't matter whether Gibson is 95 or 115. His upside as a pitcher is the same regardless...

As of today, I think I'd rank them.... 1.) Sano, 2.) Buxton, 3.) Hicks, 4.) Rosario, 5.) Arcia, 6.) Berrios, 7.) Gibson... subject to change daily. Ha!

Think Im with ya on the top 7.....yes it does change day to day...inning to inning.
Benson was 99th in Baseball America's top 100 this yr.....what if he makes a AHicks type comeback/breakout yr next yr. Lots of things to be happy with.
My favorite, Adam Walker, is making a pitch for that top 10 also.

Badsmerf
08-11-2012, 05:34 PM
Adam Walker is not making a pitch for the top 10. He is doing what good prospects should do with some nice power. If he can do it in Beloit then he will make a case for the top 10. I think I still go Sano, Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, Rosario. That top 5 is pretty sweet. Can't wait till they are with the Twins.

greengoblinrulz
08-11-2012, 05:49 PM
dont know if I agree that you have to be out of ELIZ to be top 10.
Sano was first, Rosario was 3rd, Levi Michael 7th--Travis Harrison 11th(neither played), Madison Boer 12th (8 Beloit appearances) & Corey Williams 13th......according to BAmerica.
Berrios is definately in the top 10
Not sure who would absolutely be 9/10 for me after Berrios/Gibson/Benson (still) at 6-8.
I think he is top 10 unless I am missing someone (dropped Harrison down a bit myself to probably 10/11)....maybe Keplar 9/10 also.

Thrylos
08-11-2012, 09:58 PM
exactly, it doesn't matter whether Gibson is 95 or 115. His upside as a pitcher is the same regardless...

As of today, I think I'd rank them.... 1.) Sano, 2.) Buxton, 3.) Hicks, 4.) Rosario, 5.) Arcia, 6.) Berrios, 7.) Gibson... subject to change daily. Ha!

If they convert Zack Jones to a starter successfully and he continues to develop a solid third pitch, I bet you'll change that. He is actually one of the 3-4 Twins' pitchers with higher upside than Gibson.

jokin
08-11-2012, 10:04 PM
exactly, it doesn't matter whether Gibson is 95 or 115. His upside as a pitcher is the same regardless...

As of today, I think I'd rank them.... 1.) Sano, 2.) Buxton, 3.) Hicks, 4.) Rosario, 5.) Arcia, 6.) Berrios, 7.) Gibson... subject to change daily. Ha!

If they convert Zack Jones to a starter successfully and he continues to develop a solid third pitch, I bet you'll change that. He is actually one of the 3-4 Twins' pitchers with higher upside than Gibson.

I know it's early, but when does Berrios earn being in the mix of consideration as a top 3-4 pitching prospect/high upside guy and possible top 10 member? After A ball success next season?

jokin
08-11-2012, 10:07 PM
dont know if I agree that you have to be out of ELIZ to be top 10.
Sano was first, Rosario was 3rd, Levi Michael 7th--Travis Harrison 11th(neither played), Madison Boer 12th (8 Beloit appearances) & Corey Williams 13th......according to BAmerica.
Berrios is definately in the top 10
Not sure who would absolutely be 9/10 for me after Berrios/Gibson/Benson (still) at 6-8.
I think he is top 10 unless I am missing someone (dropped Harrison down a bit myself to probably 10/11)....maybe Keplar 9/10 also.

I missed your post, but everything I'm reading, plus the early results tend to justify the early ranking.

Badsmerf
08-11-2012, 10:48 PM
dont know if I agree that you have to be out of ELIZ to be top 10.
Sano was first, Rosario was 3rd, Levi Michael 7th--Travis Harrison 11th(neither played), Madison Boer 12th (8 Beloit appearances) & Corey Williams 13th......according to BAmerica.
Berrios is definately in the top 10
Not sure who would absolutely be 9/10 for me after Berrios/Gibson/Benson (still) at 6-8.
I think he is top 10 unless I am missing someone (dropped Harrison down a bit myself to probably 10/11)....maybe Keplar 9/10 also.

Its not just that, he has a low avg and obp. All he is doing is hitting some homeruns. Which is cool, the guy has some power, but with a low contact rate and no ability to take a walk he wont get very far.

drivlikejehu
08-11-2012, 11:57 PM
exactly, it doesn't matter whether Gibson is 95 or 115. His upside as a pitcher is the same regardless...

As of today, I think I'd rank them.... 1.) Sano, 2.) Buxton, 3.) Hicks, 4.) Rosario, 5.) Arcia, 6.) Berrios, 7.) Gibson... subject to change daily. Ha!

If they convert Zack Jones to a starter successfully and he continues to develop a solid third pitch, I bet you'll change that. He is actually one of the 3-4 Twins' pitchers with higher upside than Gibson.

I doubt that is plausible for Jones. He doesn't have great stamina and is really just blowing away inexperienced opposition right now. He threw plenty hard at San Jose State and was still projected to be more of a 6th or 7th rounder by BBA. I like him but he's not really close to top 10 status at this point.

I'd still have Gibson ahead of Berrios, mainly given the fact we don't know if the latter will hold up physically as a starter.

greengoblinrulz
08-11-2012, 11:59 PM
dont know if I agree that you have to be out of ELIZ to be top 10.
Sano was first, Rosario was 3rd, Levi Michael 7th--Travis Harrison 11th(neither played), Madison Boer 12th (8 Beloit appearances) & Corey Williams 13th......according to BAmerica.
Berrios is definately in the top 10
Not sure who would absolutely be 9/10 for me after Berrios/Gibson/Benson (still) at 6-8.
I think he is top 10 unless I am missing someone (dropped Harrison down a bit myself to probably 10/11)....maybe Keplar 9/10 also.

Its not just that, he has a low avg and obp. All he is doing is hitting some homeruns. Which is cool, the guy has some power, but with a low contact rate and no ability to take a walk he wont get very far.
Got off to a 7/42 start in first 10gms..... 289BAve .593slgg in last 34gms. May have been getting used to pro style.
Lots of Ks yes.....needs to walk more, but did in college. Hopefully that will come....is one of my favs.
If not Walker.....who's your 8-12 ranked guys??

killebrew
08-12-2012, 12:10 AM
I think Hicks will eventually be a 20 HR guy, so I see his ceiling as very close to Buxton's. Since he's so much closer to the bigs, he's easily ahead on my list.

shs_59
08-12-2012, 12:54 AM
mine:
1. Buxton A- CF
2. Sano B+ 1B
3. Hicks B CF
4. Arcia B LF
5. Rosario B 2B/RF
6. Berrios B- SP
7. Kepler B- CF
8. Gibson B- SP
9. Harrison B- 3B/1B
10. Z. Jones B- RP/ SP
11. A.B. Walker C+ 1B
12. Boyd C+/B- SP
13. Bard C+
14. Melotakis C+
15. Herrmann C+
16. Hermsen C+ (RH version of Diamond) , hopefully
17. Felix Jorge C++
18. Goodrum
19. Michael C+

20. Boer C+

Vervehound
08-12-2012, 09:51 AM
walker is getting way too much love. he was a nice 3rd rounder in that he has m.l. ready power but he was picked in the third round because he needs to work on the rest of his game and he hasn't shown anything so far. you could foresee him hitting 16 or so bombs in e-town by accident - he hasn't proven anything yet. reminds me of a corey vaughn type.

Vervehound
08-12-2012, 09:59 AM
exactly, it doesn't matter whether Gibson is 95 or 115. His upside as a pitcher is the same regardless...

As of today, I think I'd rank them.... 1.) Sano, 2.) Buxton, 3.) Hicks, 4.) Rosario, 5.) Arcia, 6.) Berrios, 7.) Gibson... subject to change daily. Ha!

If they convert Zack Jones to a starter successfully and he continues to develop a solid third pitch, I bet you'll change that. He is actually one of the 3-4 Twins' pitchers with higher upside than Gibson.

at this point, i think jones might be the third best prospect from this draft after buck and berrios. i think the 6-7-8 prospects in the system right now are gibson, berrios and kepler, in whatever order, and then it's a free-for-all after that, though i'd probably put harrison at 9.

arcia is a better prospect than hicks, imo. i'd even rate rosario ahead of hicks based on track record. hicks' defense at a premium position will enhance his argument but i see both arcia and rosario being middle-of-the-order types whose bats will play at whatever level. their innate ability to barrel the ball leads me to believe they'll be in target field shortly.

two guys that deserve a mention are polanco and santana. both intriguing guys who i'd take ahead of the college misfit arms we picked this year. relief prospects should be discounted accordingly, but i love what tonkin has done this year and think he might be just hitting his stride.

kab21
08-12-2012, 10:03 AM
I'm not sure Arcia is top 50, and I could almost gurantee Rosario won't be in the top 50. I could see Arcia in the 60-80 range and could see Rasario sneak into a few lists as well.

Gibson should def be a top 100 guy. But I could see him left off most lists. Not that any of the "lists" matter much.

Arcia has been killing it this year as a 21 yr old in A/AA ball. He's going to make top 50 lists and he's still a hair ahead of Hicks in my book. Rosario is a lock for top 100 lists but will probably fall out of the top 50.

Vervehound
08-12-2012, 10:23 AM
had a second to think about it and the other two prospects that really stand out are angel mata and chris herrmann. herrmann is a borderline m.l. regular with an underrated skillset. and mata...that fastball is electric. after berrios, he might have the best arm in the system (jorge is also in the running), but, coming into the season he had nothing to go along with it.

birdwatcher
08-12-2012, 10:34 AM
Sure hope the excitement for Zach Jones is justified. I remember similar excitement for Pedro Guerra, for example, and he fizzled out.

jtrinaldi
08-12-2012, 10:52 AM
exactly, it doesn't matter whether Gibson is 95 or 115. His upside as a pitcher is the same regardless...

As of today, I think I'd rank them.... 1.) Sano, 2.) Buxton, 3.) Hicks, 4.) Rosario, 5.) Arcia, 6.) Berrios, 7.) Gibson... subject to change daily. Ha!

If they convert Zack Jones to a starter successfully and he continues to develop a solid third pitch, I bet you'll change that. He is actually one of the 3-4 Twins' pitchers with higher upside than Gibson.
He is a closer, not a starter. There is no advantage to moving a power arm to a starter when he is already having great success as a bullpen arm. The Twins have desperately needed a bullpen arm like him who can throw 97-99 on a consistent basis.
On another note,My top 5 would look like this. Rosario is better hitter than Sano, but the Power is too great to overlook. Buxton hasn't proved **** yet so that is why I put Arcia 3rd. Dude is killing AA, him and Rosario or pretty similar hitters.
Sano
Rosario
Arcia
Buxton
Hicks

minn55441
08-12-2012, 11:00 AM
What are the odds we see both Arcia and Hicks at Target Field in 2012?

FirstRoundBust
08-12-2012, 11:16 AM
mine:
1. Buxton A- CF
2. Sano B+ 1B
3. Hicks B CF
4. Arcia B LF
5. Rosario B 2B/RF
6. Berrios B- SP
7. Kepler B- CF
8. Gibson B- SP
9. Harrison B- 3B/1B
10. Z. Jones B- RP/ SP
11. A.B. Walker C+ 1B
12. Boyd C+/B- SP
13. Bard C+
14. Melotakis C+
15. Herrmann C+
16. Hermsen C+ (RH version of Diamond) , hopefully
17. Felix Jorge C++
18. Goodrum
19. Michael C+

20. Boer C+

Might want to update your sig then.

Badsmerf
08-12-2012, 11:17 AM
If not Walker.....who's your 8-12 ranked guys??

Mine go like this. This top 10 is easily the best amount of talent I've seen in the Twins system since I started following this team.
1. Sano
2. Arcia
3. Buxton
4. Hicks
5. Rosario
6. Gibson
7. Berrios
8. Kepler
9. Benson
10. Harrison
11. Jorge
12. Herrmann
13. Jones
14. Boyd
15. Santana
16. Polanco

Thrylos
08-12-2012, 12:03 PM
What are the odds we see both Arcia and Hicks at Target Field in 2012?

September 2013 they should be there

Thrylos
08-12-2012, 12:08 PM
If not Walker.....who's your 8-12 ranked guys??

Mine go like this. This top 10 is easily the best amount of talent I've seen in the Twins system since I started following this team.
1. Sano
2. Arcia
3. Buxton
4. Hicks
5. Rosario
6. Gibson
7. Berrios
8. Kepler
9. Benson
10. Harrison
11. Jorge
12. Herrmann
13. Jones
14. Boyd
15. Santana
16. Polanco

As in Felix Jorge? There are better pitching prospects in Dominican than him right now like Miguel Gonzalez, Javier Vargas and Damian Defrank who actually have pitched in games :)

Thrylos
08-12-2012, 12:15 PM
Sure hope the excitement for Zach Jones is justified. I remember similar excitement for Pedro Guerra, for example, and he fizzled out.

fizzled out ? Have you checked on him lately?

His is having a 1.76 ERA, 0.922 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 3.53 K/BB for the single A Yankees as a 22 year old in A ball. Those numbers would put him right with the leaders at Beloit.

The fact that the Twins cut him does not make him less of a player.

Seth Stohs
08-12-2012, 12:32 PM
As in Felix Jorge? There are better pitching prospects in Dominican than him right now like Miguel Gonzalez, Javier Vargas and Damian Defrank who actually have pitched in games :)

Felix Jorge likely won't be in my Top 50, but he is a very good prospect. Very young, throws hard, developing secondary stuff. Jorge has a chance to move up, but could take him another two seasons just to get to Beloit. Very young. Very talented. Good, live arm.

Shane Wahl
08-12-2012, 12:32 PM
I am just going to wait the rest of the minor league season out before making decisions. I definitely favor production at higher levels in the system though, so that benefits Hicks, Arcia, and Herrmann.

drivlikejehu
08-12-2012, 12:34 PM
[QUOTE=Badsmerf;44979][QUOTE=greengoblinrulz;44940]


As in Felix Jorge? There are better pitching prospects in Dominican than him right now like Miguel Gonzalez, Javier Vargas and Damian Defrank who actually have pitched in games :)

Felix Jorge has thrown 25 2/3 innings in the GCL with a 1.40 ERA. He's a top 20 Twins prospect for sure, though not #11.

I don't get why so many people think Herrmann is a good prospect. He's really not a prospect at all... he's most likely a AAAA player, with back-up catcher upside. Back-up catchers are not a rare commodity. Maybe he could be ranked somewhere but not top 30.

Seth Stohs
08-12-2012, 02:47 PM
I don't get why so many people think Herrmann is a good prospect. He's really not a prospect at all... he's most likely a AAAA player, with back-up catcher upside. Back-up catchers are not a rare commodity. Maybe he could be ranked somewhere but not top 30.

Because of Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit, it's likely that Herrmann will be a backup catcher for the Twins. But I don't at all see that as his ceiling. I think he can play for the Twins in that same Doumit role, where he is the #2/#3 catcher, but he is also a very good defensive outfielder. He's a catcher prospect who gives versatility, can hit .270ish, get on base a lot, hit 10-12 homers, hit doubles, and even steal a dozen bases.

There's a lot of value in that.

drivlikejehu
08-12-2012, 03:28 PM
I don't get why so many people think Herrmann is a good prospect. He's really not a prospect at all... he's most likely a AAAA player, with back-up catcher upside. Back-up catchers are not a rare commodity. Maybe he could be ranked somewhere but not top 30.

Because of Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit, it's likely that Herrmann will be a backup catcher for the Twins. But I don't at all see that as his ceiling. I think he can play for the Twins in that same Doumit role, where he is the #2/#3 catcher, but he is also a very good defensive outfielder. He's a catcher prospect who gives versatility, can hit .270ish, get on base a lot, hit 10-12 homers, hit doubles, and even steal a dozen bases.

There's a lot of value in that.

He's barely doing what you describe as a 24 year-old in AA (over 200 games at that level)- how can he be expected to do that as a Major Leaguer? He is nowhere near the same caliber of hitter as Doumit... when he was the same age, Doumit hit .345/.415/.630 in AAA and then held his own with the Pirates. A .743 OPS at age 24 in AA just isn't any good at all.

And Doumit himself was cheap to acquire and re-sign, so a homeless man's version of Doumit just isn't worth much.

jokin
08-12-2012, 03:41 PM
I don't get why so many people think Herrmann is a good prospect. He's really not a prospect at all... he's most likely a AAAA player, with back-up catcher upside. Back-up catchers are not a rare commodity. Maybe he could be ranked somewhere but not top 30.

Because of Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit, it's likely that Herrmann will be a backup catcher for the Twins. But I don't at all see that as his ceiling. I think he can play for the Twins in that same Doumit role, where he is the #2/#3 catcher, but he is also a very good defensive outfielder. He's a catcher prospect who gives versatility, can hit .270ish, get on base a lot, hit 10-12 homers, hit doubles, and even steal a dozen bases.

There's a lot of value in that.

He's barely doing what you describe as a 24 year-old in AA (over 200 games at that level)- how can he be expected to do that as a Major Leaguer? He is nowhere near the same caliber of hitter as Doumit... when he was the same age, Doumit hit .345/.415/.630 in AAA and then held his own with the Pirates. A .743 OPS at age 24 in AA just isn't any good at all.

And Doumit himself was cheap to acquire and re-sign, so a homeless man's version of Doumit just isn't worth much.

I think you missed the part about Hermann being a very good defensive catcher.

Badsmerf
08-12-2012, 03:59 PM
As in Felix Jorge? There are better pitching prospects in Dominican than him right now like Miguel Gonzalez, Javier Vargas and Damian Defrank who actually have pitched in games :)

Felix Jorge likely won't be in my Top 50, but he is a very good prospect. Very young, throws hard, developing secondary stuff. Jorge has a chance to move up, but could take him another two seasons just to get to Beloit. Very young. Very talented. Good, live arm.

I gave him a high spot based on his projectability. He has some work to do, but he's still just 18. I like his delivery, I like his arm, I just like him as a prospect right now. He will need to have better command and develop his other pitches as he moves up. He might be a little high, but that's why its my list lol.

old nurse
08-12-2012, 07:46 PM
Unless Gibson is ready opening day there is not much help in the minor leagues for a talent upgrade for the start of 2013. Arcia could make it real hard for them to send him down with a good spring training. No middle infield help for a long time.

kab21
08-12-2012, 09:18 PM
I'm not seeing it for Herrmann tbh. He is on a tear in August though.

I don't really understand how it's possible that Felix Jorge isn't a top 50 prospect. Imo he's at the tail end of the interesting but young group in the 10-20 range. He's thrown about the same number of pro innings as Berrios and the Berrios bandwagon is going nuts.

Badsmerf
08-12-2012, 10:10 PM
I'm not seeing it for Herrmann tbh. He is on a tear in August though.

I don't really understand how it's possible that Felix Jorge isn't a top 50 prospect. Imo he's at the tail end of the interesting but young group in the 10-20 range. He's thrown about the same number of pro innings as Berrios and the Berrios bandwagon is going nuts.

The only reason I would rank Herrmann around the top 10 is because he is a catcher that can hit a little bit and play in the OF. I see a guy like him having a good chance to contribute.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-12-2012, 11:36 PM
Agree with Kab, there is no reason why Jorge shouldn't crack the top 20.

kab21
08-13-2012, 10:31 AM
The only reason I would rank Herrmann around the top 10 is because he is a catcher that can hit a little bit and play in the OF. I see a guy like him having a good chance to contribute.

Herrmann is a 24 yr old repeating AA with a .737 career OPS. If he's not catching then he's barely even a prospect.