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View Full Version : Can't we just enjoy what we have?



spideyo
08-07-2012, 02:22 PM
I'm getting a little sick of the negativity and the refusal to accept reality at face value. Examples:

Deduno is doing well.....so let's talk about how the twins pitching staff is probably going to screw him up

Willingham is hitting more homers than anyone ever in Target Field and is a crowd fave and a clutch hitter.....we better trade him now.

Scott Diamond has been the most stable and reliable starter we have, and has done a fantastic job this year....but he's still at best a poor man's someone or other and won't really turn out to be great

Mourneau is finally returning to pre-concussion form, and is doing well, and is strating to improve against lefties.....let's trade him as soon as possible

Mastroianni is doing exactly what we want a 4th OF/bench guy doing, handling spot starts, stealing like crazy, making clutch hits when nesc.....so let's move him to 2b

Revere is making highlight reel catches constantly, has a 20 game hit streak, within a week will be in the top 5 for BA, and is second in the AL in SB. He's 23 and hasn't even played a full season at the major league level......so let's trade him immediately because he'll never be a legit starter



What we actually have is a team that started out really, REALLY awful, made some significant, if not high-profile, lineup changes, altered their game plans (remember at the beginning of the year how Doumit, Plouffe, and Parmelee were going to see time in RF?) and have seen considerable improvement. They aren't making the playoffs this year, but they may finish out of the cellar. It's not unrealistic to think that this team could compete for a playoff spot next year if they add a few more pieces.

So why can't we just enjoy the improvement and enjoy the success, instead of advocating that we blow up the whole team and plan for 2015?

Blake
08-07-2012, 02:28 PM
I concur.

Watching the Twins take three out of four in Boston then crushing Cleveland has been fun.

crarko
08-07-2012, 02:34 PM
Count me in. I belong to the "need two good SP to contend next year" crew.

Hopefully Gibson can be one and a decent FA signing can be the other. The lineup looks pretty solid now.

Monkeypaws
08-07-2012, 02:44 PM
Count me in - if they can add a dependable starter or two in the off-season, this team could be competitive in the Central as soon as next season.

greengoblinrulz
08-07-2012, 02:47 PM
Hmmmmm ok, so nobody is allowed an opinion?

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 02:47 PM
There are a bunch of people who think the Twins could contend next season with a couple of smart acquisitions.

The problem is that every single one of them has a different idea of how to get there. The OP is looking at the negatives in each post instead of seeing that each person is trying to figure out how to most improve the team... and to get quality starting pitching, the Twins are going to have to give up quality bats.

jokin
08-07-2012, 02:48 PM
I'm getting a little sick of the negativity and the refusal to accept reality at face value.

Revere is making highlight reel catches constantly, has a 20 game hit streak, within a week will be in the top 5 for BA, and is second in the AL in SB. He's 23 and hasn't even played a full season at the major league level......so let's trade him immediately because he'll never be a legit starter



What we actually have is a team that started out really, REALLY awful, made some significant, if not high-profile, lineup changes, altered their game plans (remember at the beginning of the year how Doumit, Plouffe, and Parmelee were going to see time in RF?) and have seen considerable improvement. They aren't making the playoffs this year, but they may finish out of the cellar. It's not unrealistic to think that this team could compete for a playoff spot next year if they add a few more pieces.

So why can't we just enjoy the improvement and enjoy the success, instead of advocating that we blow up the whole team and plan for 2015?

Minor correction, Revere is 24. The fact that they started out so awfully and didn't know what they had in the SPs, Revere, Valencia, Plouffe, Morneau, Parmelee is telling that they didn't have a real handle on what they had or a cogent plan to compete. Caught between rebuilding and reloading, impossible to do both, but not able to admit they must do the former if there's any hope to compete long-term.

That said, the last few days have been fun as expected and unexpected guys have stepped up and nothing wrong with enjoying the short-term while still being mindful of long-term priorities.

But, reality still bites, as this overall "team improvement" is mirage-like:

Twins June-July record in 2011: 33-22
Twins June-July record in 2012: 26-27

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 02:50 PM
I'm getting a little sick of the negativity and the refusal to accept reality at face value.

Reality: This is a season that the Twins are having the second worst record in the AL (and are a couple games over the team with the worst record) after a season that they had the worst record.

Shall we be happy about it and start talking about how great this team is? There are individual positive things, but overall, the last 2 seasons are there with the late 90s Twins teams....

Sad but REAL.

And if anyone is happy with the way the Twins have been performing this season, he/she is probably a White Sux fan or something

Not a matter of glass half full or half empty. The glass is on the floor shuttered in a million pieces...

DPJ
08-07-2012, 03:01 PM
Coming from a miserable **** like myself I find no joy in watching this team the last 2 seasons. There are a couple of guys that personal are having great years but overall this franchise is a mess right now.

Sorry it's not all peaches and sunshines but the Twins are a mess and there's no light at the end of the tunnel anytime soon.

crarko
08-07-2012, 03:02 PM
I promise nobody will force you to be happy. Is it OK if some of us don't spend our day bitching about things we have absolutely zero control over?

Thank you.

DPJ
08-07-2012, 03:03 PM
Is it OK if some of us don't spend our day bitching about things we have absolutely zero control over?

Thank you.


What's the point of a message board then?

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 03:05 PM
What's the point of a message board then?

Pictures of cute baby animals! Use your head, DPJ!

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-yUKFdMMYthw/UCFIXIVQEPI/AAAAAAAA0RA/6V37kPHepfg/s600/UlgvnHqxbzU.jpg

crarko
08-07-2012, 03:05 PM
What's the point of a message board then?

Yes, it sucks to be us. :banghead:

jokin
08-07-2012, 03:11 PM
I promise nobody will force you to be happy. Is it OK if some of us don't spend our day bitching about things we have absolutely zero control over?

Thank you.

Well, actually we don't have much control, but it's more than zero. The customer's not always right, but consensus public opinion in a definite direction can lead to changes. Pohlad clearly stated there were no management changes needed last fall- the MN Twins is not a "knee jerk" operation. It can be argued that he did take a reading of the public through opinion boards and ticket sales that filtered up through levels of the Twins' decision-making bureaucracy, and voila, Bingo Bill Smith was gone less than 30 days later.

Steve Penz
08-07-2012, 03:12 PM
There is a difference between being negative and considering smart moves. Your examples are all over the board. Some folks will dwell on negative. What can you do? However, there is nothing wrong with thinking about dealing Mourneau, Hammer, or others. The twins will need to use offense to find pitching. I would love to see them compete in 2013 and I would love more to see them crush the league for 5 years straight because they gave up some valuable players and rebuilt the team properly.

DPJ
08-07-2012, 03:14 PM
Message boards, blogs, newspaper comment sections (god help us all) are just forums for people to bitch and complain about things they have no control over. Hell this place is where I let most of my hatred (DAVE) and anger go so I don't bring it home to the Mrs. and youth.

Jim Crikket
08-07-2012, 03:15 PM
What's the point of a message board then?

So the only point for a message board is to bitch. Now that I understand that, at least it explains why I find the message board to be the least valuable aspect of the TwinsDaily site.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 03:15 PM
Hell this place is where I let most of my hatred (DAVE) and anger go

You two are such a cute couple. :s-instagib:

cr9617
08-07-2012, 03:15 PM
Finding only the silver linings in this roster isn't facing reality.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 03:17 PM
I'm getting a little sick of the negativity and the refusal to accept reality at face value. Examples:

Deduno is doing well.....so let's talk about how the twins pitching staff is probably going to screw him up

Willingham is hitting more homers than anyone ever in Target Field and is a crowd fave and a clutch hitter.....we better trade him now.

Scott Diamond has been the most stable and reliable starter we have, and has done a fantastic job this year....but he's still at best a poor man's someone or other and won't really turn out to be great

Mourneau is finally returning to pre-concussion form, and is doing well, and is strating to improve against lefties.....let's trade him as soon as possible

Mastroianni is doing exactly what we want a 4th OF/bench guy doing, handling spot starts, stealing like crazy, making clutch hits when nesc.....so let's move him to 2b

Revere is making highlight reel catches constantly, has a 20 game hit streak, within a week will be in the top 5 for BA, and is second in the AL in SB. He's 23 and hasn't even played a full season at the major league level......so let's trade him immediately because he'll never be a legit starter



What we actually have is a team that started out really, REALLY awful, made some significant, if not high-profile, lineup changes, altered their game plans (remember at the beginning of the year how Doumit, Plouffe, and Parmelee were going to see time in RF?) and have seen considerable improvement. They aren't making the playoffs this year, but they may finish out of the cellar. It's not unrealistic to think that this team could compete for a playoff spot next year if they add a few more pieces.

So why can't we just enjoy the improvement and enjoy the success, instead of advocating that we blow up the whole team and plan for 2015?
I am optimistic as they come, but this is unfair.

Dedundo will be messed up by the pitching staff? Nobody is saying that. People are saying that its hard to imagine him continuing to pitch well when he is walking more guys than he is striking out. There is nothing negative about that, its reality.

Willingham- Last place teams should always be open to trading their veterans. I'd hate to see the Hammer go personally, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't explore trades.

Nobody is trashing Diamond, he just isn't an ace. But has the potential to be a very nice #3 on a COMPETING team.

Morneau- See: Willingham.

Revere- has been a nice surprise and is over preforming expectations. The Twins have TONS of OF depth in the majors and minors, they should be trying to trade at least on OF this off-season for SP help.

Mastrionni- I don't get your point at all. Most people are very happy with Mastro and would like to see him play 2B since he could benefit the team more that way. By the end of next season Mastro could be the 6th best OF on the Twins major league roster (if he isn't let go by that point)

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 03:18 PM
You two are such a cute couple. :s-instagib:

I'm pretty sure he is joking. At one point he was supposed to crash on my couch for a weekend here in NY for the playoff series.

DPJ
08-07-2012, 03:21 PM
You two are such a cute couple. :s-instagib:

Could have been you and I if you wouldn't have ruined it.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 03:21 PM
I feel like the people who are complaining that the Twinsdaily message boards are "way to negative" have never ventured into an internet forum, blog or comments section before.

Yes, some people are negative, these things will happen when you have one of the worst teams in baseball two years in a row. However these forums are some of the more balanced ones I have seen. Of course there are a couple people who take different viewpoints/sides to an extreme, but it's really not that hard to avoid them.

The Twins are currently the 2nd worst team in the AL, nobody should be jumping for joy right now as Twins fans. Though I certainly think we have a decent shot in 2013 if Ryan gets the job done this off-season.

DPJ
08-07-2012, 03:24 PM
So the only point for a message board is to bitch. Now that I understand that, at least it explains why I find the message board to be the least valuable aspect of the TwinsDaily site.

No, but it's shining the light on the failures on just about every level this franchise is going through. I'm sorry if you wanna bury your head in the sand or plug your ears, but
there's a reason this team has been this bad the last couple years and I don't think myself of anyone else should apologize for focusing on it.

There's a good mix of neg and pos on this board, I think it's good for debate and good for a board to have both views.

Ultima Ratio
08-07-2012, 03:27 PM
So why can't we just enjoy the improvement and enjoy the success, instead of advocating that we blow up the whole team and plan for 2015?

I agree with your sentiment about some of the negativity and constantly needing to mentally fiddle with trades/promotions/demotions/position changes et cetera. Though, I also believe that most folks on here share in the spirit of your post: we want the Twins to win and that means to continually improve at every position and improve every player fielding those positions. As to the title of you post, "Can't we just enjoy what we have?" I am enjoying the resurgence of production and winning attitude I see with many of our young and formally injured players. I, like most others, see a tremendous amount of work, smart trades and smart FA signing that must occur for this team to be a competitive playoff squad. I see us requiring three good to excellent SPs in order to win the division. Can we buy them all? I don't know, but I have very little faith that this front office is the one that can buy them all.

ChuckkJay
08-07-2012, 03:27 PM
I feel like the people who are complaining that the Twinsdaily message boards are "way to negative" have never ventured into an internet forum, blog or comments section before.

Spot on. Apparently, the creed of the Interweb (brought to you by Al Gore) forumsphere is:

The only way to appear sophisticated is to offer negative criticism. Positivity is viewed as uneducated and beneath those of us who are smart enough to know better.

nicksaviking
08-07-2012, 03:32 PM
There's plenty of complaining on this site as expected due to a losing club, but since when are trade suggestions a mark of negativity? Sure, poor ones leave a bad taste in our mouths, but a successful one gets people pretty pumped up. It's bittersweet losing a fan favorite, but getting upset about trade talk seems naive. Keeping a player from their rookie season until their retirement is rarely a good business move. I'll bet no one is still upset about trading Chuck Knoblauch except the Yankees.

crarko
08-07-2012, 03:34 PM
I feel like the people who are complaining that the Twinsdaily message boards are "way to negative" have never ventured into an internet forum, blog or comments section before.


Nah, I ran one for a decade. Thankfully, it was technology and not sports related, so the focus was a whole lot different.

Certainly, the level here is much better than the Strib and several orders of magnitude higher than ESPN. No argument about that.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 03:35 PM
I'm pretty sure he is joking. At one point he was supposed to crash on my couch for a weekend here in NY for the playoff series.

Oh, I know the two of you don't really hate each other. Both of you just think the other is kinda dumb. :D

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 03:38 PM
No, but it's shining the light on the failures on just about every level this franchise is going through. I'm sorry if you wanna bury your head in the sand or plug your ears, but
there's a reason this team has been this bad the last couple years and I don't think myself of anyone else should apologize for focusing on it.

There's a good mix of neg and pos on this board, I think it's good for debate and good for a board to have both views.
I thought it was a little silly for one of the bloggers (aside from the big 5 on this board) to say this was his least favorite part of the site.

PseudoSABR
08-07-2012, 03:38 PM
Pictures of cute baby animals! Use your head, DPJ!

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-yUKFdMMYthw/UCFIXIVQEPI/AAAAAAAA0RA/6V37kPHepfg/s600/UlgvnHqxbzU.jpg
Can that little guy turn a double play?

birdwatcher
08-07-2012, 03:42 PM
Geez, SpiritofVodka Dave, way to pee in the punch bowl with all that meaningless droning of positivity! Yep, the damn excuse factory is workin' overtime, Dave, and you're the foreman.

I'm here to fulfill the Community Service requirements of my last sentence. Just trying to keep the bruises down in the DPJ household.

Rosterman
08-07-2012, 03:45 PM
The Twins is 2013:

Need to address 2B/SS Carroll/Dozier and someone for backup is adequate.

Plouffe at 3B - let's see how he comes back from thumb injury.

Revere and Span in the OF -- two very similar players. Do we want more big pop in RF, or settle for getting on base and speed.

Bench - non-existent.

The Twins, to succeed in 2013, need to improve at-the-plate. Advancing AND scoring runners. Taking more pitches. Running. The possibility exists.

Bullpen: A strength. Right now 2-4 suitable long men. A dynamite lefty who can get out one or two batters. Decent setup. Terry Ryan did good trolling last winter.

Starting Rotation: Diamond, Deduno, DeVries (potential bullpen longman), Duensing (keep in bullpen, but he throws lefty). I'm not sure Walters will contribue. Hendriks will get to show off some in September.

The Twins still need two starters, top of the rotation innings eaters who won't pull up lame. You can spend the money if you wish, and that would be the easiest way -- buy them and hope they pitch to keep 38,000 butts in the stands and everyone who has been performing the latter months of 2012 continue to do so equally.

crarko
08-07-2012, 03:47 PM
Can that little guy turn a double play?

Betcha my 13 week old Golden puppy would make one heck of a cutoff man.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 03:51 PM
Betcha my 13 week old Golden puppy would make one heck of a cutoff man.

Back in 2006, BYTO spent months lobbying to replace Jose Bautista with a labradoodle.

crarko
08-07-2012, 04:01 PM
Back in 2006, BYTO spent months lobbying to replace Jose Bautista with a labradoodle.

Not unlike the Bombo Rivera for Governor campaign.

James
08-07-2012, 04:06 PM
Pictures of cute baby animals! Use your head, DPJ!

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-yUKFdMMYthw/UCFIXIVQEPI/AAAAAAAA0RA/6V37kPHepfg/s600/UlgvnHqxbzU.jpg

Well played, but I've got a proven player right here:
http://www.jenkatgames.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/cat-baseball-player1.jpg

As far as the original part of this thread goes, I would agree that it is nice to see improvement from what we saw in 2011. I have to admit that the team is looking much, much better than it did last year or even the beginning of this year. I'm actually enjoying watching these games and having some things to root for.

That being said, some of the things mentioned in the first post were not negative at all. The idea of trading Moreau or Span or Revere or Willingham have nothing to do with being negative about the team. They have everything to do with posters on this forum coming up with ideas to help the Twins improve over the next year. And I think that is a positive.

(Also, I don't know how moving Mastro to 2B is a negative comment. I think anyone suggesting that clearly wants him playing every day with the likes of Span and Revere and the Hammer... There's only 3 outfield spots to put players in).

IdahoPilgrim
08-07-2012, 04:07 PM
One of the things that I enjoy about baseball is that, even on the suckiest team in the league, there is still a 1-in-3 chance that you can go home happy with a win. Blackburn gets blown out? Maybe tomorrow will be better. You don't have to sit and mope about it for a whole week like in football.

Do I wish the Twins were a better team? Yes. Do I yearn for the days when we are back in the playoffs? Yes (and I might even like to see them win a post-season series again at some point). Do I think changes need to be made to make that happen? Yes. But I choose not to let that stop me from enjoying the good moments when they come. When they pound a team like they did last night in Cleveland, it's fun to watch (or follow on the internet:)) no matter what their record is. And even on the worst team there are positive things that you can look at and take the sting away a little bit. It doesn't mean you have your head in the sand and are not seeing reality. It means that, at the end of the day, you remember that this is just a game. It's meant to be enjoyed, by players and fans alike, and when that gets lost - then what's the point?

ericchri
08-07-2012, 04:10 PM
Coming off the ridiculous number of injuries last year, it would have been pretty hard to have a gameplan for this season. Who could you be absolutely certain was going to be a contributor? Barring blowing up the whole team that is, but there was too much "potential" in too many players for that to be realistic, either. It's been pretty lousy to be a fan for the last couple years, but at least this coming offseason you can have a more legitimate evaluation of what you have in the players on the team from this year. That's what has me a little more optimistic. I don't expect grand things from the team next year, but they're showing the signs of having bottomed out and moving upwards again. The ceiling doesn't appear to be really high yet, but it's easier to identify what to work on.

The real question is what kind of team do you want? The Marlins have two fairly recent World Championships, followed up by dismantling the team and playing lousy baseball for years. And honestly, for some fans, that is what they want. Competing but ultimately failing doesn't leave a great feeling after it's all done (many of us also get the pleasure of being Vikings fans - Yay). Winning a championship so you have something to brag about is ultimately what you aspire to. But baseball is a different sport than the other big ones in that winning 60% of your games is ultimately regarded as being very successful, where the other sports the really good teams win more like 75-80%, some even more. It's pretty hard to build a team that you can say "that's definitely a championship team" in baseball, because a 10-win difference in record out of 162 games really isn't all that much (i.e equivalent to a 1-game difference in record in Football). We've been conditioned to believe a 95-win team is way better than an 85-win team, which is in turn way better than a 75-win team, but they're probably not much, ultimately.

The season is 162 games long over the course of 6 months. Teams are going to change over the course of that time. The current team looks better than the team that started the season, but naysayers can (understandably) claim you can't just cherrypick when to start counting the record from. Last year's team had a silly-good month of being the best pitching team in baseball, which led to the mirage of being competitive, only to ultimately regress back. This year's uptick feels a little more legitimate to me, but not everyone will agree. I'm more inclined to believe Span, Revere, Mauer, Willingham, Doumit, and Morneau (and possibly Plouffe) will continue to hit well than I was to believe last year's team could keep pitching like they did for that short stretch. But it could come crashing down pretty fast, too, if the D's regress as a pitching staff (not hard to believe will happen) or if any of the hitters get hurt or cool off.

The Twins need better starting pitching, I doubt you'll find a single person to argue that. But look at last year's Phillies. In the discussion as the best starting rotation ever, first round flameout in the playoffs. How many championships did the Braves win in the 90's? There's no ultimate answer "do this and you'll win." The 2001 Seattle Mariners went 116-46, and didn't win the series. I see a Twins team with a fairly good looking lineup 1-7 when everyone is healthy, and some pretty suspect pitching. And most of the suggestions revolve around trying to keep that 1-7 in pretty good working order and somehow improving the pitching. There are some reasonable suggestions to do that (move Morneau or Span to get pitching, put Parmelee in the lineup), but they don't guarantee success. They just indicate a team is trying to do something. We've tried to do things in the past, some have worked (Shannon Stewart), some haven't (pick one, there's lots). After an offseason of doing very little and not getting much better recordwise, the temptation to recommend numerous ways to get better by trading/signing/firing/whatever is pretty understandable.

If you enjoy watching the Twins right now, good for you. If you believe this team needs serious work and the owners/front office/coaches/players need to be held to a higher standard, good for you. Passionate fans are better than apathetic fans. </soapbox>

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 04:11 PM
This thread needs more dogs named after Twins players:
http://i49.tinypic.com/29dbv5e.jpg

ofx1
08-07-2012, 04:12 PM
How is bitching about people bitching any different from what you're complaining about in the first place? If it *is* different, can I make a post about you doing a lousy job polishing turds?

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 04:13 PM
What's your dog's name again, Dave?

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 04:16 PM
What's your dog's name again, Dave?

Drew Nishioka

crarko
08-07-2012, 04:16 PM
Let me run this by y'all, since you like what-if's.

Take the current squad, and put vintage Santana and Radke (or Viola and Blyleven, or Morris and Tapani, if you prefer) at the top of the rotation. Change nothing else.

Where does this team finish?

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 04:19 PM
Let me run this by y'all, since you like what-if's.

Take the current squad, and put vintage Santana and Radke (or Viola and Blyleven, or Morris and Tapani, if you prefer) at the top of the rotation. Change nothing else.

Where does this team finish?
1st

glanzer
08-07-2012, 04:20 PM
Good stuff here spideyo. Of course the reality is that forum contributors on most any subject come to these places to vent frustrations. What fun would it be to talk about keeping things going just as they are!

ofx1
08-07-2012, 04:22 PM
Let me run this by y'all, since you like what-if's.

Take the current squad, and put vintage Santana and Radke (or Viola and Blyleven, or Morris and Tapani, if you prefer) at the top of the rotation. Change nothing else.

Where does this team finish?

Just one, right? Right around .500 now at best, with stars aligned is a quick guess. Take any one of their best WAR years and exchange it for - I would guess Blackburn.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 04:23 PM
Just one, right? Right around .500 now at best, with stars aligned is a quick guess. Take any one of their best WAR years and exchange it for - I would guess Blackburn.

He was implying any pair of them.

Cy Santana/Radke/Diamond/Liriano(he'd still be around!)/whoever

That is a winning rotation right there.

ofx1
08-07-2012, 04:26 PM
OK yeah, a mythical pair, with both having their best year in this mythical scenario, would probably have the Twins at the top of the ALC.

James
08-07-2012, 04:27 PM
Drew Nishioka
Great name.

That might just make me get another cat so I can name it Alexi Dozier, or Matt Pavano.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-07-2012, 04:29 PM
The Twins may move up to 3rd in the Central. That's pretty cool and positive. :D -Whoooaaa weird smileys you stuck in RP.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-07-2012, 04:30 PM
Matt Pavano.

Unfair it's Matt Capps. Fair if it's Matt Tolbert.:)

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 04:30 PM
Great name.

That might just make me get another cat so I can name it Alexi Dozier, or Matt Pavano.

It's actually Mauer.

roger
08-07-2012, 04:31 PM
So why can't we just enjoy the improvement and enjoy the success, instead of advocating that we blow up the whole team and plan for 2015?[/QUOTE]

Thank you

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 04:32 PM
Let me run this by y'all, since you like what-if's.

Take the current squad, and put vintage Santana and Radke (or Viola and Blyleven, or Morris and Tapani, if you prefer) at the top of the rotation. Change nothing else.

Where does this team finish?


With career years from both, this team might win the Central and then it will be 3 and out as usual.

James
08-07-2012, 04:37 PM
It's actually Mauer.
That makes more sense.

As for the Matt Pavano, I was going for names of guys on the DL. So that name would work if I adopted a cat with health issues.

Seth Stohs
08-07-2012, 04:41 PM
Good forum post, Spideyo!

Like most, I found myself pretty down on the team in mid-May and into June. Looking at the overall record is one thing... I understand the negativity found in not competing for a second straight year.

I am trying hard to counter that, however, with the fact that since mid-May, the team is something like 3-5 games over .500. Several roster changes have been made. The offense is playing better and coming together. Yes, there are still holes to be filled and the pitching staff does need to be addressed in the offseason, but if they can be over .500 for the final 2/3 of the season and use the offseason to address those needs, why can't they improve to .500 for the full season next year?

At that time, there will likely be help starting to come from the minor leagues and they could be a contender in 2014. One thing to point out is that blowing things up takes a long time to build back IF you acquire the right kind of talent. However, teams like the Royals and Astros and Pirates (until the last year) have been rebuilding for a long time. It doesn't always happen in the first rebuild attempt. With this current Twins roster, there is a strong baseline with Span, Revere, Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Doumit. That's a pretty good starting point. Clearly, they would need to dive into free agency for a starting pitcher or three, and no, it doesn't have to be a Greinke-caliber pitcher.

There are prospects that are likely going to be ready to start contributing in 2013 and maybe one or two or three of them can step up with that baseline group in 2014 to contend. That includes names like Benson, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, Hendriks and maybe one or two of those power arms drafted over the last two years. The following year, guys like Sano and Rosario will start arriving.

I was disappointed that there wasn't more activity at the trade deadline, but I fully subscribe to not giving up the sure-things you know, for the maybes you don't know... unless you're getting the guys that likely aren't available.

one_eyed_jack
08-07-2012, 04:55 PM
I understand where you're coming from here, I mean how many "Nishioka sucks" threads do we need to have going at once?

However, I don't agree with the notion that anyone is obligated to be positive or negative here. Different people view the situation differently, and different people enjoy following baseball in general in different ways.

Some people are more interested on finding ways to enjoy the season. They tend to focus on positives and look for silver linings.

Others are more interested in figuring out what's wrong with the team and how to make it better. They tend to focus more on problem areas and looking back at how we got here.

There's tension between these 2 groups. The latter group tends to view the former as blind, cheerleading homers. To the former group, the latter are a bunch of Pissy Pauls.

But in the spirit of free expression as these forums are intended, we need to accept that there really isn't a correct approach to fanhood and tolerate these differences.

ofx1
08-07-2012, 04:57 PM
but if they can be over .500 for the final 2/3 of the season and use the offseason to address those needs, why can't they improve to .500 for the full season next year?


I don't doubt they can. Does that mean you think a .500 2013 season could/should/would be considered a success then?

Sounds a little like "with the grace o god and the creek don't rise, we'll be in that double-wide by June!"

Shane Wahl
08-07-2012, 05:39 PM
There are a bunch of people who think the Twins could contend next season with a couple of smart acquisitions.

The problem is that every single one of them has a different idea of how to get there. The OP is looking at the negatives in each post instead of seeing that each person is trying to figure out how to most improve the team... and to get quality starting pitching, the Twins are going to have to give up quality bats.

Morneau is the one bat I would be willing to give up, but I don't think it is *needed* to get quality starting pitching. The team is 38-35 in its past 73 games. That's what . . . a 85 win pace or so? Two pitchers for $20-25 million and the eventual promotion of Gibson could raise that number to 92-95, right?

Nick Nelson
08-07-2012, 05:54 PM
Passionate fans are better than apathetic fans.

Very well said. Personally, I haven't found the overall tone of rhetoric here to be overly positive or negative. Certainly there are people who go over the top in focusing on the bad rather than the good (and vice versa) and some of the front office rants can get a tad ridiculous, but generally people are just speaking their minds and that's the purpose of a forum.

Whether people are celebrating the successes of individual players (and there's been plenty of that) or brainstorming ways to rebuild a contending team, they're voicing their opinion and showing that they care about what's happening on the field. Isn't that why we're here? If everyone shared the same rosy-eyed viewpoints, the discussions wouldn't be very interesting.

birdwatcher
08-07-2012, 06:06 PM
ericchri, one of the absolutely best, most balanced comments I've ever read here. Thank you. Please speak up more often.

TheLeviathan
08-07-2012, 06:19 PM
No one can predict the future, but I'd just like to point out one thing:

Almost everything going right for the Twins this year could be put in the "unexpected", "fluke", or "likely not sustainable" categories

Almost everything gone wrong was because of mismanagement by the organization.

If I'm a betting man, that makes me nervous about the future.

jeffk
08-07-2012, 06:29 PM
I'm sympathetic to the original poster. On one hand, the point of a forum like this is so a bunch of baseball nerds can bitch and discuss hypothetical scenarios. Certainly it's boring if it's just a bunch of cheerleading. On the other hand, for some people the wheeling-and-dealing mindset has gotten out of hand. Why would you trade Revere? He's good, young, cheap, and you developed him. That's the kind of player you trade *for*. If you are dead set on trading an outfielder, you trade the veteran Span.

Shane Wahl
08-07-2012, 06:33 PM
No one can predict the future, but I'd just like to point out one thing:

Almost everything going right for the Twins this year could be put in the "unexpected", "fluke", or "likely not sustainable" categories

Almost everything gone wrong was because of mismanagement by the organization.

If I'm a betting man, that makes me nervous about the future.

Nick Blackburn being THIS terrible, Jason Marquis being THAT terrible, Pavano returning to injury-form, Danny Valencia being THAT terrible, Brian Duensing forced into the starting rotation, neither Joe Benson nor Chris Parmelee being a factor this year are/were unexpected, I think. You could say that you knew the first four mentioned were bad players, but no way could you predict that they would be this awful.

snepp
08-07-2012, 06:36 PM
On the other hand, for some people the wheeling-and-dealing mindset has gotten out of hand. Why would you trade Revere? He's good, young, cheap, and you developed him. That's the kind of player you trade *for*. If you are dead set on trading an outfielder, you trade the veteran Span.

Then let's make a bunch of rules stating who can and cannot be discussed and in what way to discuss them. This way there won't be anything to bitch about! I'll start.

Revere - no trade discussion allowed

Span - trade discussion allowed

Gray - no DFA discussion allowed

Feel free to add.

ofx1
08-07-2012, 06:51 PM
Then let's make a bunch of rules stating who can and cannot be discussed and in what way to discuss them. This way there won't be anything to bitch about! I'll start.

Revere - no trade discussion allowed

Span - trade discussion allowed

Gray - no DFA discussion allowed

Feel free to add.

Nishioka - no pointing out errors, lack of hits, but you can mention he's leading the league in Camel Bucks

Blackburn - no pointing out any stats whatsoever

Pavano - no pointing out porn 'stache, bagdhad body

Butera - no mentioning at all allowed

darin617
08-07-2012, 06:51 PM
Can't we just enjoy what we have? (http://www.twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?2790-Can-t-we-just-enjoy-what-we-have/page4)What do we have? Ownership that doesn't want to spend the money it takes to win. You cannot pay a single player $23M and have a $100M payroll. You have to either trade Mauer or add some quality arms to the rotation so they can compete.

I wanted the Twins to trade for AJ Burnett, I know he would have not posted as good as numbers in the AL.

TheLeviathan
08-07-2012, 07:04 PM
Nick Blackburn being THIS terrible, Jason Marquis being THAT terrible, Pavano returning to injury-form, Danny Valencia being THAT terrible, Brian Duensing forced into the starting rotation, neither Joe Benson nor Chris Parmelee being a factor this year are/were unexpected, I think. You could say that you knew the first four mentioned were bad players, but no way could you predict that they would be this awful.

Other than that last one - I think those are all perfectly reasonable to expect. The problem was that the roster was managed in such a way that these players became critical, rather than role players. So, these are pretty bad examples if you want to contest the point.

Nothing says these positives can't continue, they very well might. I'm just not convinced we should bank much on it.

nokomismod
08-07-2012, 07:07 PM
I think the Twins, with their success during the previous ~10 years, created a passionate fan base. Some of us older nerds were here for the good and bad times before that. The Twins and us fans are lucky that there are a lot of us that are still paying attention. Look at Cleveland and KC for example and the apathy that has set in there.
Count me as a glass half full guy. If I'm paying attention to it, it better bring me joy or else I will find something else. I appreciate all of the smart baseball types that come here. I personally think it's great to have a site led by some bright baseball minds, that gives us a place to share ideas about how we would improve the team or discuss a great/crazy/bad play from last night's game.
Lastly, I'm hoping this rebuild doesn't take as long as the 94-2001 period. I really think we are trending positive and that the team is only 2 starting pitchers away from being competitive again. Let's hope it's next year!

crarko
08-07-2012, 07:24 PM
Then let's make a bunch of rules stating who can and cannot be discussed and in what way to discuss them. This way there won't be anything to bitch about! I'll start.

Feel free to add.

I think there's really only one rule required.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2010/08/17/dont-be-a-dick-part-1-the-video/

mikeee
08-07-2012, 08:11 PM
I have a cold drink, so I am enjoying it! :th_alc:

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-08-2012, 12:11 AM
It's actually Mauer.

You should have named it M-eow-er.

Nick Nelson
08-08-2012, 12:39 AM
No one can predict the future, but I'd just like to point out one thing:

Almost everything going right for the Twins this year could be put in the "unexpected", "fluke", or "likely not sustainable" categories

Almost everything gone wrong was because of mismanagement by the organization.

If I'm a betting man, that makes me nervous about the future.
Yeah, when a bunch of first-round draft picks like Perkins and Plouffe and Revere and Parmelee figure things out in their mid-20s and start looking like long-term impact players, it certainly reflects poorly on the front office and coaching staff. But hey, no one can predict the future so they'll probably all fall off the typical progression curve and start sucking immediately after this year. Very fair assessment there.

What I would call unexpected, flukish and unsustainable was the putridity of the starting staff in April and May. And it was unsustainable. Even with a crop of Quad-A arms, the rotation has been at least serviceable enough to keep the team afloat since then. If you're telling me you expected the pitching to be as wretched as it was in the first third of the season one of the worst stretches of performance for any team in the past decade I don't believe you.

It's difficult to exaggerate the severity of this team's problems but, to the OP's point, a number of people around here manage to do it.

old nurse
08-08-2012, 01:00 AM
With career years from both, this team might win the Central and then it will be 3 and out as usual.

You are right for the wrong reason. With a Tapani/ Morris and the three best remaining starters the team would do very well. The problem is in the lineup. Who is the player that could say "Jump on my back" Willingham or Morneau maybe. The rest, no. Mauer has the talent but not the makeup.

Fatt Crapps
08-08-2012, 01:01 AM
Well if we're talking doggies, I should probably mention LMB (Little Monty Burns) However, he's not familiar with the MN Twins...he reminisces about the days of Cap Anson and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown.

1835

Shane Wahl
08-08-2012, 02:02 AM
Other than that last one - I think those are all perfectly reasonable to expect. The problem was that the roster was managed in such a way that these players became critical, rather than role players. So, these are pretty bad examples if you want to contest the point.

Nothing says these positives can't continue, they very well might. I'm just not convinced we should bank much on it.

No they were not reasonable to expect. Again, Blackburn and Marquis being bad was a fair prediction. Being the worst in baseball was not a reasonable expectation. ERAs around 5 is one thing, around 7 or 8 is truly barbaric. I think some people have already forgotten how completely terrible the starting pitching was into May. Blackburn and Pavano were hurt the whole time (likely), Liriano had to move to the 'pen for awhile, and they had to actually send Marquis packing. None of that could have been expected. It was a complete disgrace.

And I forgot to even mention Hendriks! I did not imagine him being that terrible either. They had 4 guys with 7-8.00 ERAs! And Pavano who was around or over 5.00!

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 06:53 AM
Drew Nishioka

Is his middle name Straker?

TheLeviathan
08-08-2012, 08:08 AM
Yeah, when a bunch of first-round draft picks like Perkins and Plouffe and Revere and Parmelee figure things out in their mid-20s and start looking like long-term impact players, it certainly reflects poorly on the front office and coaching staff. But hey, no one can predict the future so they'll probably all fall off the typical progression curve and start sucking immediately after this year. Very fair assessment there.

I'm sorry, aren't you the same Nick Nelson who said, effectively, that Perkins "sucks at baseball" and should be cut just two years ago? And wasn't Plouffe unable to field a position and batting in the .100s in April? Revere we might have expected to contribute...but again....to this degree? Willingham's career year of health and production in his mid-30s? I can go on, but you're intentionally missing the point (and being hostile doing it - cute!).

I'm not suggesting that all of these guys are going to suck. But two years ago we were saying the same things about Valencia that we are about Plouffe. Same with Delmon. Same with Liriano. In 2011 we looked mighty stupid for assuming all those out-of-the-norm career spikes were going to continue.

As for the pitching, what we walked into ST with (not counting Baker's issues) was an aging pitcher with a long track record of injury, a headcase we didn't know what we'd get performance-wise, a Gardy-guy who hasn't been good since game 163, a converted NL pitcher who makes Pavano look like a power guy, and a lefty that can't get righties out. Were they even worse than should have been expected? Yes, but if you can say with a straight face that you were "surprised" that this rotation was one of the AL's worst, then you've severely lowered you standards for what a quality starting pitcher is.

I'm not saying all of these good things can't last. They very well might. But if you go ahead thinking this group can get it done with just some pitching help - I think you're in for a rude awakening in 2013 when some of these things normalize. That's not being negative, that's just being realistic. I still flip on the TV, cheer when we win, and enjoy what I'm seeing. It is possible to be a fan of your team, enjoy it, but also be a realist when you sit down and talk about things hypothetically on here.

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 08:24 AM
Morneau is the one bat I would be willing to give up, but I don't think it is *needed* to get quality starting pitching. The team is 38-35 in its past 73 games. That's what . . . a 85 win pace or so? Two pitchers for $20-25 million and the eventual promotion of Gibson could raise that number to 92-95, right?

Don't forget that the team has to replace what was *mostly* a good Liriano for over a third of a season. That's no easy task in itself, nor can we count on Diamond, Plouffe, Willingham, Doumit & Co to continue playing at this level going forward. A lot has gone right this season and if the Twins really plan on competing, they're going to have to sacrifice offense for pitching. I don't see how they post a winning record next season without new players. It isn't likely they will be able to use smoke and mirrors again to just get by. They need quality arms.

USAFChief
08-08-2012, 08:36 AM
Brock Beauchamp?

Sellout. :D

crarko
08-08-2012, 08:38 AM
Brock Beauchamp?

Sellout. :D

He couldn't even enjoy a screenname. :p

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 08:40 AM
Brock Beauchamp?

Sellout. :D

Heh, I'm not crazy about the change either but I submitted TD to several major news outlets this morning (Google, Bing, Yahoo!) and their requirements are that authors are fully accredited.

Trust me, I hate giving up the Rocketpig screenname more than anyone. Hell, it's the URL for my site and it's the screen name I've been using for 15 years.

crarko
08-08-2012, 08:48 AM
Heh, I'm not crazy about the change either but I submitted TD to several major news outlets this morning (Google, Bing, Yahoo!) and their requirements are that authors are fully accredited.

Trust me, I hate giving up the Rocketpig screenname more than anyone. Hell, it's the URL for my site and it's the screen name I've been using for 15 years.

Hey, that's pretty cool. Congratulations on the new exposure.

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 08:50 AM
Hey, that's pretty cool. Congratulations on the new exposure.

Thanks. We haven't gotten in yet but I think there's a good chance at least one of them accepts us into the fold. TD is quickly becoming one of the best Twins sites out there and John, Seth, Parker, and Nick (along with Jim, Cody, and Jeremy) are churning out fantastic content.

stringer bell
08-08-2012, 09:01 AM
I think the Twins will have to part with valuable parts in order to compete next year. I think it should be Span and Morneau. That leaves no room for error--the productive guys need to be productive again next year and long-term injuries would have to be avoided--and somebody (probably Parmelee) needs to step up and be productive. The Twins must add quality starting pitching if they are serious about contending and they need to get lucky--as it appears they have with Plouffe and Diamond this year.

stringer bell
08-08-2012, 09:02 AM
Heh, I'm not crazy about the change either but I submitted TD to several major news outlets this morning (Google, Bing, Yahoo!) and their requirements are that authors are fully accredited.

Trust me, I hate giving up the Rocketpig screenname more than anyone. Hell, it's the URL for my site and it's the screen name I've been using for 15 years.Thanks for the explanation.

UCLA_YANKEE_COLA
08-08-2012, 09:25 AM
Enough about Rocket Pig. More dogs please.

Shane Wahl
08-08-2012, 09:52 AM
I think the Twins will have to part with valuable parts in order to compete next year. I think it should be Span and Morneau. That leaves no room for error--the productive guys need to be productive again next year and long-term injuries would have to be avoided--and somebody (probably Parmelee) needs to step up and be productive. The Twins must add quality starting pitching if they are serious about contending and they need to get lucky--as it appears they have with Plouffe and Diamond this year.

The Twins parting with both Span and Morneau would struggle to compete next year.

Shane Wahl
08-08-2012, 09:53 AM
Heh, I'm not crazy about the change either but I submitted TD to several major news outlets this morning (Google, Bing, Yahoo!) and their requirements are that authors are fully accredited.

Trust me, I hate giving up the Rocketpig screenname more than anyone. Hell, it's the URL for my site and it's the screen name I've been using for 15 years.

Very cool!

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 10:06 AM
Enough about Rocket Pig. More dogs please.

Now introducing your new starting second baseman for the 2013 Minnesota Twins...

1837

stringer bell
08-08-2012, 11:09 AM
Reality: This is a season that the Twins are having the second worst record in the AL (and are a couple games over the team with the worst record) after a season that they had the worst record.

Shall we be happy about it and start talking about how great this team is? There are individual positive things, but overall, the last 2 seasons are there with the late 90s Twins teams....

Sad but REAL.

And if anyone is happy with the way the Twins have been performing this season, he/she is probably a White Sux fan or something

Not a matter of glass half full or half empty. The glass is on the floor shuttered in a million pieces...The Twins are not going to contend in 2012. They still have one of the worst records and one of the worst run differentials in baseball, but I don't think they are that far away from being a contender. I don't think the product is "shattered" by any means. It is entirely within the realm for this club to play .500 baseball the rest of the year and come out with mid-70s wins and that is a major improvement from 2011 when they were lucky to win 63 and avoid 100 losses. Someone pointed out that the '11 Twins actually had a better run than any the '12 Twins have put together, but the mirage was anything good produced by that club. Today's Twins are hamstrung by bad starting pitching, but the lineup is pretty good, the bullpen is good (and much improved) and the defense is much better and plays much better fundamentally.

There still is plenty to complain about. A minor league system that has stopped producing standout players, a front office that has sold low on a number of players and has seemed intent on cutting payroll above winning, a medical staff that has seemed clueless, announcers who praise first inning bunts and speak in hackneyed cliches, pitchers who pitch to contact because they don't have enough stuff to strike hitters out and there's more, of course.

The Twins have some talent. They have "found" some productive players this year and if they are shrewd and lucky enough to do the same next year, especially starting pitchers, they can compete in the Central. Sure, they're lucky they aren't in the East or West and there still would be that playoff problem to get over, but I think the club is moving in the right direction and they could suprise as soon as next year.

BrentMpls
08-08-2012, 11:37 AM
I'm getting a little sick of the negativity and the refusal to accept reality at face value. Examples:

Deduno is doing well.....so let's talk about how the twins pitching staff is probably going to screw him up

Willingham is hitting more homers than anyone ever in Target Field and is a crowd fave and a clutch hitter.....we better trade him now.

Scott Diamond has been the most stable and reliable starter we have, and has done a fantastic job this year....but he's still at best a poor man's someone or other and won't really turn out to be great

Mourneau is finally returning to pre-concussion form, and is doing well, and is strating to improve against lefties.....let's trade him as soon as possible

Mastroianni is doing exactly what we want a 4th OF/bench guy doing, handling spot starts, stealing like crazy, making clutch hits when nesc.....so let's move him to 2b

Revere is making highlight reel catches constantly, has a 20 game hit streak, within a week will be in the top 5 for BA, and is second in the AL in SB. He's 23 and hasn't even played a full season at the major league level......so let's trade him immediately because he'll never be a legit starter



What we actually have is a team that started out really, REALLY awful, made some significant, if not high-profile, lineup changes, altered their game plans (remember at the beginning of the year how Doumit, Plouffe, and Parmelee were going to see time in RF?) and have seen considerable improvement. They aren't making the playoffs this year, but they may finish out of the cellar. It's not unrealistic to think that this team could compete for a playoff spot next year if they add a few more pieces.

So why can't we just enjoy the improvement and enjoy the success, instead of advocating that we blow up the whole team and plan for 2015?

The epic collapse in quality the teams performance has taken deserves analysis.

All of the things deserve to be looked at to see what the future might hold for them, Deduno is doing well because he lacks control and nobody knows where it will land - how long can that last? Willingham is doing great offensively, but what would happen if he could be traded, and what benefit is there to having a guy like that if the rest of the team isn't up to snuff? Questions like that should be asked and analyzed, wouldn't you agree?

Nick Nelson
08-08-2012, 11:57 AM
I'm not suggesting that all of these guys are going to suck. But two years ago we were saying the same things about Valencia that we are about Plouffe. Same with Delmon. Same with Liriano. In 2011 we looked mighty stupid for assuming all those out-of-the-norm career spikes were going to continue.
So your point is that since players who've broken out have regressed in the past, we should simply expect it with this new crop and thus abandon any notion of building a contender around them? Not sure how you can try to couch that as anything other than blatant pessimism.

Personally, I don't see any reason to believe the guys that are flourishing now cannot continue to do so going forward. Just because breakout performances are unexpected doesn't make them flukish or unsustainable. Plouffe's power has been trending up for three years. Perkins has been one of the best relievers in the league for the past two seasons. Revere is doing the same thing he did at every single level in the minors. Willingham probably won't repeat his performance from this year but even if he falls back to career norms he's a great hitter. None of these spikes are really "out-of-the-norm" if you examine the situations at hand rather than comparing them to irrelevant past examples like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano.

Right now, the Twins have a very good offense going and all the major contributors are locked in beyond this year, with enough depth to trade from a few areas of strength. I choose to view that as a good thing.

TheLeviathan
08-08-2012, 04:11 PM
Plouffe's power has been trending up for three years. Perkins has been one of the best relievers in the league for the past two seasons. Revere is doing the same thing he did at every single level in None of these spikes are really "out-of-the-norm" if you examine the situations at hand rather than comparing them to irrelevant past examples like Delmon Young.

So Delmon is irrelevant even though he is a first rounder who had breakout 2010.but Plouffe hitting homeruns at a Ruthian pace for a month is perfectly reasonable to expect because he is a former first rounder?

There are certainly positives to enjoy and some of them will likely continue but being realistic isn't being negative. It is mighty polly-annish to believe we will trade a strength for a weaknezs and still maintain the strength, have everyone above their career norms continue as is, have youngsters again next year breakout, and have no one unexpectedly regress. I choose to be a realist and think we are better off building towards the future than that polly-anna take. It may come through, but I wouldn't bet on it. Pretty simple idea, no need to get huffy.

Nick Nelson
08-08-2012, 11:12 PM
So Delmon is irrelevant even though he is a first rounder who had breakout 2010.but Plouffe hitting homeruns at a Ruthian pace for a month is perfectly reasonable to expect because he is a former first rounder?

Young's "breakout year" occurred after he had been playing regularly in the majors for more than three full seasons. Plouffe's came after 100 MLB games. The two players are not in any way similar, so I'm not sure why you're comparing them. Can I compare Plouffe to Jose Bautista or does that not count since he plays for a different team?

If your point is that some players have breakout years and then hit a wall, well yes, you're correct. That doesn't mean you plan around it.

If you made a decent argument for why we should expect any of these guys to drop off dramatically that doesn't involve comparing them to totally unrelated players, I'll hear it out. But picking out a worst-case scenario to use as a comparison doesn't make you a realist, it makes you a pessimist. No need to hide from it.

stringer bell
08-08-2012, 11:42 PM
The Twins parting with both Span and Morneau would struggle to compete next year.It would be gambling big-time to trade both Span and Morneau. The Twins, though, do have a history (and have stated it many times) that they prefer to have a guy do so well in the minors to force their way into the major league lineup. That is precisely what Parmelee is doing. Trading Morneau would also have the benefit of freeing up salary, which could be used for a quality pitcher.

I view trading Span as both more likely and easier to absorb. Having both Revere and Span in the outfield is fine for outfield range, not so much for power and run production. Outfielders with plus defensive skills are on the horizon, so long-term Span shouldn't be missed.

glunn
08-09-2012, 12:48 AM
I don't agree with the notion that anyone is obligated to be positive or negative here. Different people view the situation differently, and different people enjoy following baseball in general in different ways.

Some people are more interested on finding ways to enjoy the season. They tend to focus on positives and look for silver linings.

Others are more interested in figuring out what's wrong with the team and how to make it better. They tend to focus more on problem areas and looking back at how we got here.

There's tension between these 2 groups. The latter group tends to view the former as blind, cheerleading homers. To the former group, the latter are a bunch of Pissy Pauls.

But in the spirit of free expression as these forums are intended, we need to accept that there really isn't a correct approach to fanhood and tolerate these differences.

That was very well said, Jack. I would add that some people here, including me, enjoy and often agree with BOTH the positive AND negative posts.

TheLeviathan
08-09-2012, 08:36 AM
Young's "breakout year" occurred after he had been playing regularly in the majors for more than three full seasons. Plouffe's came after 100 MLB games. The two players are not in any way similar, so I'm not sure why you're comparing them. Can I compare Plouffe to Jose Bautista or does that not count since he plays for a different team?

I'm comparing them because someone said "former first round picks" who "figure things out in their mid-twenties" and look like "long term impact players". Please explain to me how a 25 year old Delmon Young's 2010 is "irrelevant" given those qualifications?

This is some serious gymnastics Nick - pretty damn hard to think you're being rational on the subject when you're doing that. You set the qualifications, not me.


If you made a decent argument for why we should expect any of these guys to drop off dramatically that doesn't involve comparing them to totally unrelated players, I'll hear it out. But picking out a worst-case scenario to use as a comparison doesn't make you a realist, it makes you a pessimist. No need to hide from it.

Alright, now a charge to "prove a negative" - on a roll here. Um, I haven't even given you close to the worst case scenario. I've merely talked bout player production - I haven't mentioned injuries much at all. I haven't talked about Scott Diamond's great year, Morneau, Alex Burnett and Jared Burton, Denard Span, or Ryan Doumit. Again, my point is not that everything is going to go wrong, but to reinforce just how many things have gone right. People are focused on the awful pitching early on, but that awful staff shouldn't have been that big of a surprise.

I see a group of people so giddy that the team is competitive that they're ignoring their rational perspective. Personally, I'm pretty confident Diamond is going to be a good pitcher for us, that Morneau is back, and that Plouffe's post-Ruthian binge was even more encouraging than the homeruns (the guy was really approaching the ball well), that I was way wrong about Revere (he is a keeper), and that Mastro is going to be a nice addition. These are great things to build around long-term.

However, none of those things so color my perspective that I can't see a team playing above it's head. If we pour assets into next year that could be better poured into the long-term future - that bothers me. That doesn't make me a pessimist, I'm just trying to see the forest for the trees. And I really don't want to move what assets we have to help immediately that would be better served helping down the line.

twinzgrl
08-09-2012, 09:34 AM
After reading all five pages of these comments, I don't really know what I want to say...but, I'll just say that I am a die hard Twins fan (since '61) and I really enjoy reading all the comments that are posted. I will never be as smart as most posters about WAR and stat stuff, but I do watch almost every game, and form my opinions based on what I see. I see a team that is much more watchable lately. I used to squirm whenever a fly ball went in Delmon's direction, now with the Hammer, I still squirm, but not quite as much. Hammer is an exciting player most of the time. Mauer is back, Morneau's not dizzy, Revere (wow) is doing it all, Diamond has been a revelation, Lexi is still being Lexi, Dozier I haven't figured out yet, Plouffe (jury still out)....won't mention Nishi. I did not expect Baker and Pavano to go completely down and out, and thought Liriano would be better than he was and that Hendriks would contribute. I did not see the total hot mess that has become our starting pitching staff coming as spring training began. We need at least one (preferably two) decent starters--where and how we get them I don't really care. Open up the vault, trade, whatever...Oh, I have a stuffed Build-A-Bear that wears a Twin's uniform named Joe Torii. He went into hibernation early last summer when the season tanked. Not as cute as your dogs, but still cute.

StormJH1
08-09-2012, 11:44 AM
I'm comparing them because someone said "former first round picks" who "figure things out in their mid-twenties" and look like "long term impact players". Please explain to me how a 25 year old Delmon Young's 2010 is "irrelevant" given those qualifications?

I see a group of people so giddy that the team is competitive that they're ignoring their rational perspective. Personally, I'm pretty confident Diamond is going to be a good pitcher for us, that Morneau is back, and that Plouffe's post-Ruthian binge was even more encouraging than the homeruns (the guy was really approaching the ball well), that I was way wrong about Revere (he is a keeper), and that Mastro is going to be a nice addition. These are great things to build around long-term.

However, none of those things so color my perspective that I can't see a team playing above it's head. If we pour assets into next year that could be better poured into the long-term future - that bothers me. That doesn't make me a pessimist, I'm just trying to see the forest for the trees. And I really don't want to move what assets we have to help immediately that would be better served helping down the line.

Delmon isn't a great comparison to anyone because the reality is that if he were drafted by the Twins, there's no way he's an MLB regular at age 21. Also, Delmon wasn't just a 1st rounder, he was a #1 overall pick and had the profile of a potential star slugger (older brother with successful career, looked the part, etc.). The interesting about Delmon, though, is that while he did "hit" at every level, he had a fairly pedestrian OPS of .795 at AAA. Plouffe, by contrast, looked terrible at times in the minors and was thought to be a bust, much as was the case with Denard Span. Delmon is a good example of how you can't call something a breakout year until you see it in at least two seasons. Delmon hasn't even been a .700 OPS guy since that 2010 season. Plouffe may end up being legit, but we don't know that yet.

Aside from that, completely agree with your assessment about this team playing "over its head". Some people assume that can't be the case because the record is so bad, but think about it. A whole season with a mostly healthy Morneau, Mauer, and Span? Scott Diamond pitching like a #2 starter? A bullpen full of mop-up guys, Perkins, and Capps that hasn't completely imploded? Sure, SOME of those things could continue into the future, but it's doubtful that they all will. And there's no savior coming through the system until at least 2014, maybe beyond.

TheLeviathan
08-09-2012, 11:58 AM
Delmon is a good example of how you can't call something a breakout year until you see it in at least two seasons. Delmon hasn't even been a .700 OPS guy since that 2010 season. Plouffe may end up being legit, but we don't know that yet.

Thanks for making my point! That's exactly what I'm trying to say! Plouffe was unexpected. Revere's degree of performance was unexpected. As were many other things, among them things you noted.

Nick was arguing that many of these "above our heads" performances were reasonable to expect on the basis that they were former first round talents. I simply used Delmon as an example of a player that fit a similar mold to his qualifications, who had a breakout year, and then reverted back to the previous Delmon. Nothing is stopping many of these other "unexpected" breakouts from doing the same.

Nick Nelson
08-09-2012, 12:19 PM
Nick was arguing that we CAN count on many of these "above our heads" performances on the basis that they were former first round talents.
I actually never argued that we can "count" on anything – you never can in the game of baseball. But Plouffe and Revere are on a normal development curve – they struggled in their first 100 or so games in the majors then made adjustments and started hitting the way they had been in the minors. The problem with the Delmon comparison is that his breakout was sudden and isolated after he'd established himself as a lesser player. Plouffe has been steadily improving toward where he's at now and Revere, as I mentioned before, is doing exactly what he did at every level in the minors.

Yes, the offensive unit has had the very good fortune of being shockingly healthy all year. But I really don't see them as playing over their heads. This lineup always had the potential to be very good.

TheLeviathan
08-09-2012, 12:30 PM
I actually never argued that we can "count" on anything you never can in the game of baseball. But Plouffe and Revere are on a normal development curve they struggled in their first 100 or so games in the majors then made adjustments and started hitting the way they had been in the minors. The problem with the Delmon comparison is that his breakout was sudden and isolated after he'd established himself as a lesser player. Plouffe has been steadily improving toward where he's at now and Revere, as I mentioned before, is doing exactly what he did at every level in the minors.

Yes, the offensive unit has had the very good fortune of being shockingly healthy all year. But I really don't see them as playing over their heads. This lineup always had the potential to be very good.

I edited my post, I realized I mischaracterized your point - what you said is that these things could have been expected. I'm not saying we can count on these failing either, but many of the things that are going well certainly fall into one of the three categories I listed. I'm not sure why that rubbed you so wrong, but something being "unexpected" just means it has a more dubious future.

To me it's very different when Joe Mauer as a young player comes up and is successful and when Denard Span goes from being a "meh" spec to a contributor. My faith going forward is much more strongly held to the guy with pedigree then. Many of the things going well for us this year do not have that kind of pedigree. When you combine that with the idea that we'll have to pull from that relative strength (offense) to repair the badly damaged weakness (pitching) - I don't see how anything better than spinning our wheels is possible.

Worse yet, we wouldn't be just spinning our wheels - we would have wasted assets for the longterm in the process. As for the future - I'm very encourage by Plouffe, Diamond, and Revere - very positive about those guys. Morneau probably moreso than most. I'm just not letting it delude me about 2013.

PseudoSABR
08-09-2012, 04:03 PM
Heh, I'm not crazy about the change either but I submitted TD to several major news outlets this morning (Google, Bing, Yahoo!) and their requirements are that authors are fully accredited.Bing? For shame.

PseudoSABR
08-09-2012, 04:10 PM
Personally, I don't see any reason to believe the guys that are flourishing now cannot continue to do so going forward. Just because breakout performances are unexpected doesn't make them flukish or unsustainable. Plouffe's power has been trending up for three years. Perkins has been one of the best relievers in the league for the past two seasons. Revere is doing the same thing he did at every single level in the minors. Willingham probably won't repeat his performance from this year but even if he falls back to career norms he's a great hitter. None of these spikes are really "out-of-the-norm" if you examine the situations at hand rather than comparing them to irrelevant past examples like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano.

Right now, the Twins have a very good offense going and all the major contributors are locked in beyond this year, with enough depth to trade from a few areas of strength. I choose to view that as a good thing.I agree with most of this. Whether the Twins actually acquire pitching assets for next year's team remains to be seen. It's just not like Terry Ryan to be bold. I can't imagine him signing a FA pitcher to a long term deal (needed to get anyone good) and trade for another ML-ready starting pitcher in the same off season.

Nick Nelson
08-09-2012, 04:36 PM
I agree with most of this. Whether the Twins actually acquire pitching assets for next year's team remains to be seen. It's just not like Terry Ryan to be bold. I can't imagine him signing a FA pitcher to a long term deal (needed to get anyone good) and trade for another ML-ready starting pitcher in the same off season.

True, but we've never really seen him operate with a large payroll before. (He was heavily restricted in this past offseason.) If they're serious about keeping payroll where it's at, he'll have a good chunk of money to spend.

Oxtung
08-09-2012, 05:28 PM
Making predictions about the Twins adding starting pitching via free agency by looking at the past is a flawed argument. The Twins have never been in their current situation. There are no parallels to draw from. Like Nick said assuming the payroll doesn't drop; terrible rotation, considerable money to spend, no long term commitments to SP, and little short or mid term help coming from the minors. This is truly new territory. Anyone making claims about what the Twins will or won't do have no leg to stand on.

The Twins sure better be making plans for next year (and still this year too) how to replace each and every player. That is a basic component of risk management. Hope for the best but plan for the worst. So should the Twins expect all of the "unexpected" players to regress? No. Should they have a plan in place to replace any player that regress like Casilla or is injured like Baker? Yes. That is basic business sense.

jokin
08-09-2012, 05:33 PM
The Twins sure better be making plans for next year (and still this year too) how to replace each and every player. That is a basic component of risk management. Hope for the best but plan for the worst. So should the Twins expect all of the "unexpected" players to regress? No. Should they have a plan in place to replace any player that regress like Casilla or is injured like Baker? Yes. That is basic business sense.


All that you say here does make perfect basic business sense, and yet, the Twins have repeatedly demontrated, to put it kindly, ineptitude, with regards to business sense and ability to manage risk- throughout their enitre transition to a big-market payroll. Given TR's past performance, I predict that they are still smarting from all the horrible and costly mistakes, and choose to stay cautious and fiscally conservative. This is a rebuilding team, whether management admits it publicly or not.

TheLeviathan
08-09-2012, 07:43 PM
Its also quite expensive and difficult to insure as many potential backslides as the Twins currently possess. And that is saying nothing for the costs to improve.

striker_86
08-09-2012, 09:58 PM
True, but we've never really seen him operate with a large payroll before. (He was heavily restricted in this past offseason.) If they're serious about keeping payroll where it's at, he'll have a good chunk of money to spend.

how much money will we have to spend this off-season? Won't we be at 80 million going into the off-season?

Nick Nelson
08-09-2012, 10:01 PM
Its also quite expensive and difficult to insure as many potential backslides as the Twins currently possess. And that is saying nothing for the costs to improve.

I guess I just don't see the downside in taking a shot next year. You're not hurting your long-term outlook by dealing Morneau or Span for a young pitcher, especially with the presence of Parmelee and good OF prospects. Any pitcher they sign in FA will presumably be a guy they think can help them for several years. If there are too many backslides or injuries, so be it, it's not like they're any worse off than they were before.

Nick Nelson
08-09-2012, 10:04 PM
how much money will we have to spend this off-season? Won't we be at 80 million going into the off-season?

More like $75M. And if they trade Span or Morneau that number drops below $70M.

TheLeviathan
08-09-2012, 10:45 PM
I guess I just don't see the downside in taking a shot next year. You're not hurting your long-term outlook by dealing Morneau or Span for a young pitcher, especially with the presence of Parmelee and good OF prospects. Any pitcher they sign in FA will presumably be a guy they think can help them for several years. If there are too many backslides or injuries, so be it, it's not like they're any worse off than they were before.

Well, let's examine that - just what do you think they could get for Morneau or Span? If they add a young pitcher with that trade, sure, then I'd agree that it was a good move. To me, any move that doesn't improve the team for 2015 and beyond is a mistake, so just who do they land in these deals that both helps next year and for multiple years in the future?

I'll be honest, I don't see any players that fit that. I could see players that are helping in 2015 and beyond, but ones that both help now and that far in the future would seem to me to be a bit beyond the price range of a home-field dependent outfielder who isn't amazing and a first-baseman that has exactly one month of elite play in him for the last 3 years. (And still has a hefty contract) I'm not trying to be difficult, I've looked at a lot of teams and I just don't see anything like what you're suggesting.

CDog
08-10-2012, 12:00 AM
a first-baseman that has exactly one month of elite play in him for the last 3 years.

I think you typo'd 3 when you meant 2.

Brock Beauchamp
08-10-2012, 07:59 AM
Bing? For shame.

As long as MS keeps Bing as the default search provider for IE, they'll have a place in the market. They're actually commanding more of the market than Yahoo! at this point (by a slim margin). I expect them to show slow and steady growth as MS get their **** together in the mobile space.

Brock Beauchamp
08-10-2012, 08:06 AM
I'll be honest, I don't see any players that fit that. I could see players that are helping in 2015 and beyond, but ones that both help now and that far in the future would seem to me to be a bit beyond the price range of a home-field dependent outfielder who isn't amazing and a first-baseman that has exactly one month of elite play in him for the last 3 years. (And still has a hefty contract) I'm not trying to be difficult, I've looked at a lot of teams and I just don't see anything like what you're suggesting.

How can you not see any players who fit that? This FA pitching class is the deepest I've seen in quite awhile. Jackson, Sanchez, Liriano, and Greinke are all hitting the market as 28 year olds. There are pitchers of almost every skill level coming to market this offseason. If the Twins are going to strike, I don't see a better season to do it than this one. With that many pitchers on the market, prices shouldn't be driven as high as they have been in previous seasons as five teams vie for the only two or three quality starters on the market.

For once, the Twins have a boatload of money to spend on outside talent. If they're not going to do it now, when should they do it? After the Pohlads have padded their bank accounts with $15m+ a season for 2-3 years?

TheLeviathan
08-10-2012, 10:21 AM
Um....I specifically replied to Nick's trade suggestion. Care to respond to that instead?

I can see adding one key guy in FA and a flyer but that isnt what the conversation was.

Nick Nelson
08-10-2012, 10:51 AM
Um....I specifically replied to Nick's trade suggestion. Care to respond to that instead?

I can see adding one key guy in FA and a flyer but that isnt what the conversation was.

If you can't find a team with a surplus of pitching that might be willing to trade some for a leadoff man or middle of the order bat, you're not looking very hard.

diehardtwinsfan
08-10-2012, 11:12 AM
All that you say here does make perfect basic business sense, and yet, the Twins have repeatedly demontrated, to put it kindly, ineptitude, with regards to business sense and ability to manage risk- throughout their enitre transition to a big-market payroll. Given TR's past performance, I predict that they are still smarting from all the horrible and costly mistakes, and choose to stay cautious and fiscally conservative. This is a rebuilding team, whether management admits it publicly or not.

You are oversimplifiying this a bit. Even the Yankees with their 200M payroll don't have potential pitching replacements just stashed away for when their starters fail. Most teams have a few #5/AAAA guys in their AAA rotations that they can callup and be servicable for short periods of time. The problem with the Twins is that they have been relying on these types of individuals for far too long.

I don't see Terry Ryan handing outa 5 year deal, but I do see him trying to get a 3 year deal for a pitcher somewhere. This will eliminate the top tier pitchers, but I suspect that there will be some tier 2 pitchers who might sign for such.

jokin
08-10-2012, 11:13 AM
If you can't find a team with a surplus of pitching that might be willing to trade some for a leadoff man or middle of the order bat, you're not looking very hard.

Are you referring to Leviathan........ or Terry Ryan?

Brock Beauchamp
08-10-2012, 11:14 AM
If you can't find a team with a surplus of pitching that might be willing to trade some for a leadoff man or middle of the order bat, you're not looking very hard.

Especially if you're willing to take A ball guys. Teams in "win now" mode aren't going to squawk too much about trading a guy in the low minors for a capable top of the order guy who is team controlled for three years.

Oxtung
08-10-2012, 11:57 AM
You are oversimplifiying this a bit. Even the Yankees with their 200M payroll don't have potential pitching replacements just stashed away for when their starters fail. Most teams have a few #5/AAAA guys in their AAA rotations that they can callup and be servicable for short periods of time. The problem with the Twins is that they have been relying on these types of individuals for far too long.

I don't see Terry Ryan handing outa 5 year deal, but I do see him trying to get a 3 year deal for a pitcher somewhere. This will eliminate the top tier pitchers, but I suspect that there will be some tier 2 pitchers who might sign for such.

Yeah the idea behind risk management, at least in this instance, is not that you have a one to one back up for any given player but rather that you have some minimal level of competency waiting in case your risky move fails.

Take an example from the Twins this year. They had no idea what they were going to get from Joe Mauer. Could he catch? DH? 1B? Miss half the year from injury? Mauer could do anything from win the MVP and play everyday at catcher to miss the entire season with bi-lateral leg weakness again. That's a lot of risk. To mitigate that risk the Twins went out and got Doumit. A player that could play catcher with atleast a minimal level of competency. Is Doumit an ideal every day catcher? No. Could Doumit catch 5 days a week if he had to? Yes. That is a good risk management move. It was an even better move because he not only provides risk management at catcher but also at a corner OF spot and DH.

As for the Twins starting rotation that turkey shoot can't be blamed on Ryan's risk management strategy. Nobody plans to lose all 5 opening day starters. There is just nothing you can do about that.

PseudoSABR
08-10-2012, 01:21 PM
Let's just assume everyone understands what risk management is and move on. Really. I understand TR will have payroll flexibility and I'm eager to watch what happens; it's simply hard to imagine TR making multiple big piece moves during the offseason. As other's have suggested there's no precedence for Terry Ryan having 25 million to spend. It's still hard for me to imagine he'll spend it all...

Levi is right in that the Twins can't mitigate backsliding by players performing well this year, but as long as the Twins don't trade more than one of Span/Morneau, the minor league offers some real depth.

The notion that competing in 2013 somehow sacrifices competing in 2014 and 2015, etc. just doesn't hold water as any move made this offseason will presumably be made with an eye on the future. I don't think you can plan for some mythical year when you might finally compete and only spend money then--that's the Royals.

jokin
08-10-2012, 01:36 PM
Yeah the idea behind risk management, at least in this instance, is not that you have a one to one back up for any given player but rather that you have some minimal level of competency waiting in case your risky move fails.

Take an example from the Twins this year. They had no idea what they were going to get from Joe Mauer. Could he catch? DH? 1B? Miss half the year from injury? Mauer could do anything from win the MVP and play everyday at catcher to miss the entire season with bi-lateral leg weakness again. That's a lot of risk. To mitigate that risk the Twins went out and got Doumit. A player that could play catcher with atleast a minimal level of competency. Is Doumit an ideal every day catcher? No. Could Doumit catch 5 days a week if he had to? Yes. That is a good risk management move. It was an even better move because he not only provides risk management at catcher but also at a corner OF spot and DH.

As for the Twins starting rotation that turkey shoot can't be blamed on Ryan's risk management strategy. Nobody plans to lose all 5 opening day starters. There is just nothing you can do about that.

Part of risk management is preemptive initiative and that is as much on Ryan's predecessor, but that was my point, not specifically a bash on TR. They could have traded some of those arms when they carried higher value, they could have properly assessed true value before they committed the big dollars to unworthy and erratic arms. Admittedly, you can't forsee specific mechanical breakdowns and injuries, but patterns were already in place for virtually the entire staff, such that the Twins were in the risk management position akin to trying to draw 3 cards to hit an inside straight with their opening day SP staff.

Shane Wahl
08-10-2012, 01:37 PM
Levi is right in that the Twins can't mitigate backsliding by players performing well this year, but as long as the Twins don't trade more than one of Span/Morneau, the minor league offers some real depth.

The notion that competing in 2013 somehow sacrifices competing in 2014 and 2015, etc. just doesn't hold water as any move made this offseason will presumably be made with an eye on the future. I don't think you can plan for some mythical year when you might finally compete and only spend money then--that's the Royals.

I agree about Span/Morneau (and I hope it will be Morneau who is traded).

And I STRONGLY agree about competing in 2013 does not entail or imply in the slightest that 2014 and 2015 are sacrificed. I don't get that thinking at all. Even if the Twins surprised everyone and signed 2 $15+ million pitchers . . . those guys are going to be around in 2015. I would like to stomach 2013, and it doesn't seem totally bizarre to think that 85 wins or more is possible given that this is the pace the Twins have been on since they were 10-26.

PseudoSABR
08-10-2012, 02:25 PM
it doesn't seem totally bizarre to think that 85 wins or more is possible given that this is the pace the Twins have been on since they were 10-26.Not totally bizarre, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Even if the Twins make all the right moves, just a little bit of bad luck will keep the the team from competing. (And I think that's Levi's point.)

Nick Nelson
08-10-2012, 02:32 PM
Not totally bizarre, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Even if the Twins make all the right moves, just a little bit of bad luck will keep the the team from competing. (And I think that's Levi's point.)

But you can't plan around bad luck. If **** happens, it happens. The Twins have had plenty of good luck in the past and have won the division or come very close with heavily flawed teams (2008/09 are great examples).

TheLeviathan
08-10-2012, 03:01 PM
Especially if you're willing to take A ball guys. Teams in "win now" mode aren't going to squawk too much about trading a guy in the low minors for a capable top of the order guy who is team controlled for three years.

RP - I've double checked my posts....they are in english. The issue is not can we get some low minors guys for Span and Morneau - the question is can they get players that can both help next year and years after that. Seriously - go back and read the first post you've responded to, things are getting wildly twisted by responses like this.

TheLeviathan
08-10-2012, 03:07 PM
If you can't find a team with a surplus of pitching that might be willing to trade some for a leadoff man or middle of the order bat, you're not looking very hard.

This is a total copout - what teams have a "surplus" of pitching. Remember, you are suggesting that they can trade Morneau and Span for immediate help in 2013 that will also be around for 2014 and beyond. Just what teams are going to give up such a pitcher for Span or Morneau? (Especially given their flaws)


The Twins have had plenty of good luck in the past and have won the division or come very close with heavily flawed teams (2008/09 are great examples).

What's funny, is prior to 2010 you were being a "realist" and I was accusing you of being a "pessimist." It's essentially the same argument - you turned out to be right in part because you were being realistic.

Brock Beauchamp
08-10-2012, 03:13 PM
Especially if you're willing to take A ball guys. Teams in "win now" mode aren't going to squawk too much about trading a guy in the low minors for a capable top of the order guy who is team controlled for three years.

RP - I've double checked my posts....they are in english. The issue is not can we get some low minors guys for Span and Morneau - the question is can they get players that can both help next year and years after that. Seriously - go back and read the first post you've responded to, things are getting wildly twisted by responses like this.

Testing, testing.

Voila.

Yoshii
08-10-2012, 03:24 PM
Lets all turn into the FSN crew and talk about how great it is to be a Twins fan.

Yoshii
08-10-2012, 03:27 PM
Its about doing the little things and giving people extra chances, cause they are such great guys to have in the club house.

TheLeviathan
08-10-2012, 03:51 PM
Testing, testing.

Voila.

Had to make sure, it was getting a bit irritating to be honest! Look - I WANT them to be trading these guys for A ball or AA types that move along with this team. I don't see anyone trading for Span or Morneau with guys who are already established major league pitchers, or even major league ready. I want us to deal high on Willingham and Burton especially. I have no issues with them targeting a Marcum, Sanchez, or even Grienke type.

My issues are a few, and I don't think they're crazy: 1) MANY Twins are having really unexpected seasons that are either dramatic jumps in production from young players or vets that are healthier and more productive then in their recent past. While these things may indeed maintain, it's probably a better betthat some or many of them will not. If so, focusing our efforts on 2013 could be a serious mistake 2) The idea that we can deal Span or Morneau for young major-league ready pitching seems pretty doubtful and 3) That if we focus what assets we have in trade on 2013 and not 2015 that we stand to get less of a return - especially when our primary trade assets are not superstars or even all-star caliber players at this point.

Oxtung
08-10-2012, 05:24 PM
Let's just assume everyone understands what risk management is and move on.

Except that people continuously show they don't understand risk management. There are studies that show many humans can't differentiate between risks. They don't know if scenario A presents more risk then scenario B. The housing collapse in large part was because people didn't understand the risks of Variable Rate Mortgages. Climate Change is not being confronted because many people can't accurately assess the risk. Texting while you drive. Driving Drunk. If you want to get more focused on baseball and the Twins specifically just about every time somebody says: "Count on [insert minor league player] to start next year" and especially when it's Gibson or Baker there seems to be an inability to properly assess the risk involved. Long rebuttal longer; I disagree with your assumption that people understand risk management. That's why there are entire firms that do nothing but analyze risk.

PseudoSABR
08-10-2012, 05:30 PM
Not totally bizarre, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Even if the Twins make all the right moves, just a little bit of bad luck will keep the the team from competing. (And I think that's Levi's point.)

But you can't plan around bad luck. If **** happens, it happens. The Twins have had plenty of good luck in the past and have won the division or come very close with heavily flawed teams (2008/09 are great examples).Oh I agree, Nick.

PseudoSABR
08-10-2012, 05:35 PM
Let's just assume everyone understands what risk management is and move on.

Except that people continuously show they don't understand risk management. There are studies that show many humans can't differentiate between risks. They don't know if scenario A presents more risk then scenario B. The housing collapse in large part was because people didn't understand the risks of Variable Rate Mortgages. Climate Change is not being confronted because many people can't accurately assess the risk. Texting while you drive. Driving Drunk. If you want to get more focused on baseball and the Twins specifically just about every time somebody says: "Count on [insert minor league player] to start next year" and especially when it's Gibson or Baker there seems to be an inability to properly assess the risk involved. Long rebuttal longer; I disagree with your assumption that people understand risk management. That's why there are entire firms that do nothing but analyze risk.
How about all the people (or the vast majority) participating in this conversation, in this specific thread, understand risk management. The posters in this thread are pretty smart and better educated than you're giving them credit for.

Honestly, your posts are oddly patronizing and naive at the same time. Will your next post be about the need to mitigate sunk costs? Oh boy.

USAFChief
08-10-2012, 05:59 PM
The notion that competing in 2013 somehow sacrifices competing in 2014 and 2015, etc. just doesn't hold water as any move made this offseason will presumably be made with an eye on the future. I don't think you can plan for some mythical year when you might finally compete and only spend money then--that's the Royals.

I concur. Strongly.

As a general rule sports teams should always be looking to assemble as much current talent as possible, by whatever means possible, and trying to win as many games as possible, every minute of every season. To do less purposely sacrifices the present while carrying no guarantee of a brighter future.

Nick Nelson
08-10-2012, 10:57 PM
This is a total copout - what teams have a "surplus" of pitching. Remember, you are suggesting that they can trade Morneau and Span for immediate help in 2013 that will also be around for 2014 and beyond. Just what teams are going to give up such a pitcher for Span or Morneau? (Especially given their flaws)

Plenty of teams have 4-5 pitchers among their top 10 prospects (in addition to a full MLB rotation), the Twins have... one? The Braves were ready to give up Randall Delgado for two months of Ryan Dempster at the deadline you're telling me no needy team would give that up for a full year of Morneau plus cash, or 3 reasonable years of Span? I'm not talking about an elite prospect here, just a decent young arm with some upside who can join the mix. I think you're exaggerating the extent to which "win-now" teams guard those types of players.

TheLeviathan
08-10-2012, 11:48 PM
Plenty of teams have 4-5 pitchers among their top 10 prospects (in addition to a full MLB rotation), the Twins have... one? The Braves were ready to give up Randall Delgado for two months of Ryan Dempster at the deadline you're telling me no needy team would give that up for a full year of Morneau plus cash, or 3 reasonable years of Span? I'm not talking about an elite prospect here, just a decent young arm with some upside who can join the mix. I think you're exaggerating the extent to which "win-now" teams guard those types of players.

So you're not talking about an elite prospect but you name-drop Randall Delgado? Here's the reality - Morneau has a long way to go to rebuild significant trade value, we see the most recent results and we hypothesize high return, but there is so much cash owed to him and so many question marks that I think it's pretty silly to think you're going to get a whole lot. Additionally, if Span had much value, why wasn't a deal already made? I think the fact he wasn't moved here in July says something about the value he holds to other teams. We're talking about a guy with some concussion issues, who plays a decent CF, has a low .700 OPS with limited power and limited steals, and who's home/road splits are alarming.

I don't deny that the team should be looking to move Span for young pitching that can help as close to immediately as possible - what I doubt is whether he has the value to obtain that. My guess is he has the value to obtain a couple of single A pitching specs with some upside, which is a better fit anyway. Morneau fetching more than that just isn't going to happen without at least the rest of August and September matching the form of the last few weeks. This smells a lot like our overvaluing of Liriano to me.