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Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 09:05 AM
Just throwing around ideas but right now, Revere is tearing the cover off the ball, one single at a time. He's a 2.5 WAR player in RF, a number that would surely raise with a shift to centerfield. With all the Twins prospects coming down the road, it's starting to make a lot of sense to move Revere this offseason and hold on to Span.

This is what I would consider doing this offseason:

- Trade Revere this offseason. I don't see how his value is going to get higher than if he finishes the season with a .330 BA and stellar defense. He should bring back a high upside starter plus a low minors guy with that kind of season under his belt. Revere has a lot of room to backslide with those numbers but unless he starts developing power, he has little room to grow as a player.

- Replace Revere with Parmelee. Some time early next season, Arcia is going to be knocking on the door. This gets Chris some playing time in the meantime for the next move...

- Trade Morneau at the 2013 deadline. If you can't move Justin this offseason, keep him for next deadline and hope he keeps hitting. If he does, he will bring back a solid prospect in return.

- Hold on to Span until the 2013 offseason, at which point the second of Hicks/Arcia/Benson should be knocking on the door. Span will still have two more seasons on his contract (one mandatory year, one optional) and should demand a decent return.

Four moves and you've completely altered the organization for the long term while not sacrificing a ton of offense in the short term (hopefully).

sorney
08-07-2012, 09:18 AM
RE: Trade Revere - As much as it makes sense to do, I'm not sure the return on him is all that high. If his upside is still a Juan Pierre-type, and as you say he is already basically at his ceiling, if you're another team, do you give up a high upside pitcher?!?!?! I guess I probably would not, but it only takes one team...bring it on!!!

jorgenswest
08-07-2012, 09:23 AM
We may have to remove our expectation about major league starting pitching, but the plan is sound.

I would suggest trading Willingham instead of Revere and moving Revere to left. I am very concerned that the Willingham of 2014 will be a liability on the field and his bat will drop to the median of left fielders.

jorgenswest
08-07-2012, 09:33 AM
RE: Trade Revere - As much as it makes sense to do, I'm not sure the return on him is all that high. If his upside is still a Juan Pierre-type, and as you say he is already basically at his ceiling, if you're another team, do you give up a high upside pitcher?!?!?! I guess I probably would not, but it only takes one team...bring it on!!!

Pierre is a good comp. He has been traded a few times. After 2005, he was traded for Ricky Nolasco and Sergio Mitre. Both were prospects at the time. Nolasco was a B prospect and in the Cubs top 10. It can happen which sets our expectations, but the trade environment for starting pitching appears much more difficult today.

rinkratfrits
08-07-2012, 10:16 AM
[QUOTE=rocketpig;43219]Just throwing around ideas but right now, Revere is tearing the cover off the ball, one single at a time. He's a 2.5 WAR player in RF, a number that would surely raise with a shift to centerfield. With all the Twins prospects coming down the road, it's starting to make a lot of sense to move Revere this offseason and hold on to Span.[QUOTE]



Rocket - I've been saying this for months. Way to steal my thunder! :D

I love the scenario, but I don't think you'll get the high-end pitching prospect that you would hope to get in return. The Juan Pierre deal was 7 years ago and many things have changed since then. Teams are not going to part with those pitchers for a Revere-type player.

gunnarthor
08-07-2012, 10:21 AM
Span still has the most trade value and Revere is an obvious in-house replacement for him. I still think Span should be moved this off season. He's a 4.5-5 WAR player under a great contract, if the Twins can't get a Latos/Gonzalez/Pence like return for him, hold onto him and we have this OF arrangement again next year.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 10:23 AM
While I think Pierre is a good comp, his trade isn't really applicable to Revere. Pierre has only posted an OPS+ of over 100 twice in his career and when he went to the Cubs, he only had one year of control left. The year before, he also posted a very pedestrian 84 OPS+. Right now, Revere is posting an OPS+ of 108 and can't be a FA until 2017 or something like that.

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 10:24 AM
I think that it is silly to even think about trading the younger guy who hasn't reached his prime yet and is making minimum and has a higher WAR and more years of team control than the older guy who is signed to a reasonable contact. They got to trade Span. Revere will be a better player (he is a better player now ;) ) and Span's value will not be much higher (because of the contract and because of the risk)

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 10:28 AM
I think that it is silly to even think about trading the younger guy who hasn't reached his prime yet and is making minimum and has a higher WAR and more years of team control than the older guy who is signed to a reasonable contact. They got to trade Span. Revere will be a better player (he is a better player now ;) ) and Span's value will not be much higher (because of the contract and because of the risk)

What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?

DPJ
08-07-2012, 10:34 AM
What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?


Revere is always gonna be one of those guys that lives off a high BABIP. Hell fair or not Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP and he's a pretty similar player to Revere. I'd personally rather move Revere then Span...but it's crazy to think Revere can live in that .340 BABIP range for his career.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 10:39 AM
Revere is always gonna be one of those guys that lives off a high BABIP. Hell fair or not Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP and he's a pretty similar player to Revere. I'd personally rather move Revere then Span...but it's crazy to think Revere can live in that .340 BABIP range for his career.

I assume you meant "not crazy" to assume Revere can consistently BABIP at .340. I agree with that.

The thing is that he's 20 points higher than that right now. If he BABIPs at .330 next season, he's suddenly a .300 hitter with a .330 OBP. A far cry from a .330/.360 guy with no power he is today.

I'm not saying that Revere is going to collapse, all I'm saying is that there's a good chance he never gets much better than he is today.

And it's a good idea to sell high on guys like that, especially if you have another guy cost-controlled for three years and a wealth of OF prospects beating on the door.

Riverbrian
08-07-2012, 10:40 AM
I would Trade Revere if he brought back Starting Pitching. I would not trade him for a SS. I'd be real sad to see him go but for Pitching I'd say lets do it.

Now... If choosing between Revere and Span... I'd keep Revere straight up and I also believe that Span fetches a higher return. So Span is still the guy to move that makes sense. I'd also be sad to see Span go... But for Pitching... I'd say lets do it.

On the Subject of Parmelee... Keep him out of the OF if Willingham is also in the outfield. Having two slow footed corners in the OF is a real bad idea. When you are trying to build a pitching staff... You need every bit of Defense that you can muster. Those balls that Revere and Span get to are extremely important to your pitching staff. One ball not caught in the OF can lead to 3 runs scored that didn't have to and that can cause inflated ERA's. In my opinion, You can sacrifice one OF position range wise for a plus power guy. Sacrificing two is pushing it.

Also, If you have two slow footed OF Corners. You will need Revere in CF more than ever.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 10:42 AM
On the Subject of Parmelee... Keep him out of the OF if Willingham is also in the outfield. Having two slow footed corners in the OF is a real bad idea. When you are trying to build a pitching staff... You need every bit of Defense that you can muster. Those balls that Revere and Span get to are extremely important to your pitching staff. One ball not caught in the OF can lead to 3 runs scored that didn't have to and that can cause inflated ERA's. In my opinion, You can sacrifice one OF position range wise for a plus power guy. Sacrificing two is pushing it.

Also, If you have two slow footed OF Corners. You will need Revere in CF more than ever.

It definitely makes for an ugly OF to start the 2013 season. My hope would be that Arcia, Hicks, or Benson would arrive early enough in 2013 to make it palatable.

As with anything on a team this questionable, lots of "ifs".

DPJ
08-07-2012, 10:42 AM
And it's a good idea to sell high on guys like that, especially if you have another guy cost-controlled for three years and a wealth of OF prospects beating on the door.

No doubt, I'd finally love to see the Twins sell high on a player then low. But I just really have my doubt for what Revere could bring back. Young, cheap MLB ready pitching is the gold currency of baseball right now and I just don't see Revere fetching all that much in a trade.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 10:46 AM
No doubt, I'd finally love to see the Twins sell high on a player then low. But I just really have my doubt for what Revere could bring back. Young, cheap MLB ready pitching is the gold currency of baseball right now and I just don't see Revere fetching all that much in a trade.

Yep. I don't know what it's going to take to get a decent starting pitcher from another team at this point. I was tossing out this idea because to some teams, Revere might be more alluring than Span because he is stupid-cheap and team-controlled for many more years.

Buck Nasty
08-07-2012, 10:47 AM
I like the thought process. But, if I had my choice, I'd prefer to move Span and keep Revere. I know on paper (as you've laid out) Span should be the better player. But Revere just keeps proving people wrong at ever level. Wouldn't it suck to trade him and find out he just keeps getting better? Yes, he could regress too. But we are just guessing. We know what we have in Span. He's solid. But he's also older, not getting better and had concussion issues. Bottom line, one of them should be moved. Let the market decide who (based on return).

DAM DC Twins Fans
08-07-2012, 10:50 AM
I think both Revere and Span (and Morneau) should be on the trading block this offseason. Who do you trade?? Whoever brings the most. Trade any one of the three if you can get a solid MLB starter...then pull the others back. Thats simple. Yes, no more OF prospects or older utility IF.

Jeff P
08-07-2012, 10:51 AM
I like your basic point: trade high on a player instead of waiting for them to fall down and then trading low. I just think most others will believe he is going to fall back and so the return for Revere would not be all that much. Personally I would rather trade Span: more expensive and fewer years under team control and he will bring more in trade. Plus he also has risk for falling back, in his case over injury concerns.

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 10:53 AM
What happens if Revere comes out and posts a .650 OPS next season? It's entirely possible and some would argue likely... His BABIP is at .360 for the season, which is pretty lucky, even for a guy with his speed. He hasn't shown Denard's ability to take a walk, which is a good way to prevent huge fluctuations in OBP in unlucky BABIP years.

If Denard is healthy, he's close to a lock for a .720 OPS with a .350 OBP. Revere is too reliant on BABIP to be considered a lock for much of anything at this point and is performing quite well this season... Why not trade high on the guy?

Because:
a. he is younger
b. he is cheaper
c. he is better now
d. Span will probably bring something more
e. Span will be over the hill sooner (when the Twins will be competitive)
f. unless the Twins get starting pitching what Revere does will not matter and
g. by then Hicks/Buxton/Benson will be ready.

Want more reasons?

TheLeviathan
08-07-2012, 10:54 AM
It's worth dangling - but it's not going to happen.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 10:58 AM
Because:
a. he is younger
b. he is cheaper
c. he is better now
d. Span will probably bring something more
e. Span will be over the hill sooner (when the Twins will be competitive)
f. unless the Twins get starting pitching what Revere does will not matter and
g. by then Hicks/Buxton/Benson will be ready.

Want more reasons?

So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.

diehardtwinsfan
08-07-2012, 11:20 AM
I'm not the biggest Revere fan, in part b/c I'm not convinced he can do this year in and year out. Between Revere and Span, I'd trade the guy that nets the most value, though I admit that Revere in my opinion is nothing more than a stop gap until Hicks or Benson is ready. I would guess that Span is going to get more value because he's an established player, whereas other GMs might like Revere's cost, but still see the risk. The nice thing is that if Revere does this again next year, and Hicks/Arcia/Benson all do well in AAA, we could be looking at the exact same situation next season.

This offseason, trade Span for something nice. Move Revere to center and let Parmelee man right.
Trade Morneau at the trade deadline and move Parmelee to 1B. Call up one of the outfielders (most likey Arcia).
Next offseason, trade Revere assuming that Hicks and/or Benson is ready. Keep the other one in AAA and consider flipping Willingham at that deadline (or potentially move him to DH to open up the last OF spot).

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 11:21 AM
So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.

Revere matters and to make myself clear:

Span has a higher likehood of backsliding than Revere

based on:

a. Revere is a better player right now
b. Span's major medical issues (concussion and inner ear - yes they are asymptomatic now, but not sure for how long)
c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.

jokin
08-07-2012, 11:33 AM
So you keep a guy that has a possibility to backslide just because it won't matter how he does if the team is awful again? That doesn't make any sense.

If you have a wealth of outfielders coming through the minors and a guy who is playing well now but could revert to a pretty mediocre player overnight, it most certainly matters how he performs or you might end up with a nearly worthless Revere trade chip when Arcia/Hicks/Benson arrive.

You can make the argument that trading Span first is the smarter move but arguing that Revere doesn't matter is... illogical.

I don't get it. The numbers guys always preach and teach us proles to look at the previous minor league numbers as the most reliable predictor and indicator of future results. What Revere is doing now production-wise is what he has done from the day he signed with the Twins. Based on his consistent number production in his professional career, his trade value, whatever it is to the rest of the American and National League, likely won't change in the next few years- unless he increases his power or decreases his speed.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 11:42 AM
I don't get it. The numbers guys always preach and teach us proles to look at the previous minor league numbers as the most reliable predictor and indicator of future results. What Revere is doing now production-wise is what he has done from the day he signed with the Twins. Based on his consistent number production in his professional career, his trade value, whatever it is to the rest of the American and National League, likely won't change in the next few years- unless he increases his power or decreases his speed.

Revere spent most of the minors with a BABIP in the .330-.340 range. Right now, it's sitting at a rather unsustainable .360.

His slugging is quite a bit higher this season as well, though I think that has more to do with maturation than any kind of aberration. If he's making good contact, the extra base hits will come as he ages.

jokin
08-07-2012, 11:44 AM
Revere spent most of the minors with a BABIP in the .330-.340 range. Right now, it's sitting at a rather unsustainable .360.

His slugging is quite a bit higher this season as well, though I think that has more to do with maturation than any kind of aberration. If he's making good contact, the extra base hits will come as he ages.

And every other GM in baseball doesn't know, and factor in, these facts into how much they project and value Revere?

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 11:49 AM
And every other GM in baseball doesn't know, and factor in, these facts into how much they project and value Revere?

I'm sure they do, some more than others. I'm not saying that Revere needs to be traded. I'm suggesting that it's in the best interest of the Twins to dangle him and see if anyone bites.

The more players you offer on the vine, the more likely you are to find a suitor who is willing to give up something worthwhile. Some teams might want Span while others might be more cost-conscious and prefer Revere.

boney
08-07-2012, 11:56 AM
If the plan is to plug Parmalee in at the RF position I would rather see Revere's range in center. Span would seemingly bring a bigger return tradewise and imo, Revere's stolen bases would make up for the loss of Span's OBP run wise.

twinswon1991
08-07-2012, 12:15 PM
I would guess Revere would slot in as a #4 outfielder on most contenders next year and non contenders never give up prospects of any value. I see Reveres value being very minimal in a trade. Heck, the Twins didnt think enough of him to give him a fulltime job this spring so they should deal him for a A ball arm with modest upside as they are playing with house money at this point.

jokin
08-07-2012, 12:18 PM
I'm sure they do, some more than others. I'm not saying that Revere needs to be traded. I'm suggesting that it's in the best interest of the Twins to dangle him and see if anyone bites.

The more players you offer on the vine, the more likely you are to find a suitor who is willing to give up something worthwhile. Some teams might want Span while others might be more cost-conscious and prefer Revere.

The Twins FO would be guilty of malfeasance, given the current state of the Twins, if they aren't offering everyone- on every vine- all for the hope of getting something close to the right price in return. I just took issue with your expectation and characterization of Revere's game that he will possibly "revert to a mediocre player overnight."

jokin
08-07-2012, 12:24 PM
I would guess Revere would slot in as a #4 outfielder on most contenders next year and non contenders never give up prospects of any value. I see Reveres value being very minimal in a trade. Heck, the Twins didnt think enough of him to give him a fulltime job this spring so they should deal him for a A ball arm with modest upside as they are playing with house money at this point.

Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9? He's also the #2 ranked OF in UZR for 2011-12.

You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 12:26 PM
The Twins FO would be guilty of malfeasance, given the current state of the Twins, if they aren't offering everyone- on every vine- all for the hope of getting something close to the right price in return. I just took issue with your expectation and characterization of Revere's game that he will possibly "revert to a mediocre player overnight."

Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.

jokin
08-07-2012, 12:35 PM
Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.

I second your second paragraph and agree with the last sentence of your first.

But Wade Boggs, Lou Brock and Ty Cobb, and more directly to the Twins- Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew- made out OK relying on BABIP and I think they are regarded pretty highly as that sort of player. I believe a study has been done on Revere's contact rate, it's off the charts all the time, not just when he's playing out of his mind.

diehardtwinsfan
08-07-2012, 12:36 PM
Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9? He's also the #2 ranked OF in UZR for 2011-12.

You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).

The Reds.

twinswon1991
08-07-2012, 12:37 PM
Uhh, you do realize that he is in position to contend for the batting title and his WAR of 2.8 is just short of Torii Hunter's 2.9?

You are on the right track in his trade value, a pitching-rich team in dire need of an inexpensive CF is the most likely suitor (is there currently one out there?).

If the Twins think he is a 3 win player they would be crazy to trade him but he is playing way over his head. Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. We arent talking about a highly valuable asset here. Parra and Bourjos are two guys who will be on the market who I would much rather have due to their all around defensive ability and offensive game.

deanlambrecht
08-07-2012, 12:38 PM
<snip> Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite. I'm not saying he's going to fall on his face (though one minor lower body injury could definitely do that), I'm only raising the question of whether now is a good time to consider moving him because he's playing out of his mind.

Like most of the board, I'm tired of seeing the Twins sell low on players and Revere might be a good opportunity to reverse that trend.


Exactly this. No requirement to move him, but we'd be foolish to not see what kind of offers we receive. It's especially so, given that's it's probable that he's playing as well as we're ever likely to see. So, happy to keep him, happy to trade him for the right offer.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's exactly what Rocketpig is saying.

jokin
08-07-2012, 12:43 PM
Well, I'm generally down on burners who rely on BABIP. Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to that sort of player. Right now, Revere is riding high. If he stays healthy, he'll be a good centerfielder who hits around .300 but doesn't walk enough to be elite.



.300 average, projects to 40+ SB, and ranked as the #2 UZR rated OF for 2011-12 is not elite?

jokin
08-07-2012, 12:48 PM
Exactly this. No requirement to move him, but we'd be foolish to not see what kind of offers we receive. It's especially so, given that's it's probable that he's playing as well as we're ever likely to see. So, happy to keep him, happy to trade him for the right offer.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's exactly what Rocketpig is saying.

Yes, but I think RP thinks his numbers are unsustainable, when in fact, his MiLB numbers suggest he can maintain a pace close to this- an elite level for as long as he maintains his speed- especially with Mauer and Willingham behind him for plate protection.

As I stated, the Twins better be listening for offers on EVERYONE.

PseudoSABR
08-07-2012, 12:54 PM
Revere is the kind of guy the Twins hold onto, whether he's producing or not--so I see the chances of trading him at pretty much nil, despite however it makes sense.

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 12:56 PM
Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. .

um.... MIL a contender? I guess as much as the Twins are ;)

The Phillies will be all out for a lead-off man/CF this off-season, and Span would be a perfect fit for them. Revere too, but Span and the Phillies will be a match made in heaven and the Twins could get a nice return back.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 01:05 PM
But Wade Boggs, Lou Brock and Ty Cobb, and more directly to the Twins- Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew- made out OK relying on BABIP and I think they are regarded pretty highly as that sort of player. I believe a study has been done on Revere's contact rate, it's off the charts all the time, not just when he's playing out of his mind.

Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.

Shane Wahl
08-07-2012, 01:06 PM
I think that Revere could likely bring back more in the offseason, while Span would at the deadline.

I would rather keep both, trade Morneau for said high SP prospect, keep the OF defense stellar, and make Parmelee the everyday 1B next year.

Shane Wahl
08-07-2012, 01:08 PM
Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.

I wouldn't mind that .330 OBP batting 9th next year. Clearly not if he is batting second (or first).

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 01:11 PM
.300 average, projects to 40+ SB, and ranked as the #2 UZR rated OF for 2011-12 is not elite?

No, just as Denard Span isn't elite. It's good but not elite. For a player to be considered "elite" status for me, he has to be in the top three at his position at any given time. Revere isn't that guy and I don't think he will be.

But that doesn't mean he's not valuable.

John Bonnes
08-07-2012, 01:16 PM
I'm all for listening - he's not untouchable. But it's rare that teams trade two promising young players. The Twins and Rays did it with Delmon-Garza. The Yankees and Mariners did so last year with Moreno-Pineda. But that's all I can remember.

I honestly don't know which would fetch more back, Span or Revere, but I have to think Span would be easier to find a suitor. During the offseason, teams are going to look for a sure thing from the lead off, and Span seems more sure-thing-ish than Revere. And the Twins don't need to get as much back for Span either. It just seems so much more likely a deal could be completed with Span. Revere is more of a gamble for everyone involved.

jokin
08-07-2012, 01:17 PM
If the Twins think he is a 3 win player they would be crazy to trade him but he is playing way over his head. Scannin MLB and MiLB rosters of potential conteders for 2013 I seel him as being a #4 OF on every team except MIL and CIN. We arent talking about a highly valuable asset here. Parra and Bourjos are two guys who will be on the market who I would much rather have due to their all around defensive ability and offensive game.

And yet these numbers are similar to his entire MiLB career.

All three proposed OF are non-qualifiers, but here is their current valuation:

Revere $12.7
Parra $8.3
Bourjos $6.8

UZR/150- Defensive metrics 2011-12

Revere 18.2
Bourjos 16.3
Parra 11.7

As RP mentioned, these numbers for Revere would be higher if he were playing full-time in CF as Bourjos and Parra are. I can't say that any contender would want Revere over who they currently have, but Revere would be a cheap alternative in CF for the next 5 years, not only allowing dollars to be allocated to other areas of need, but also with his personality and weekly highlight reel defense, a ticket-revenue enhancer.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 01:19 PM
I'm all for listening - he's not untouchable. But it's rare that teams trade two promising young players. The Twins and Rays did it with Delmon-Garza. The Yankees and Mariners did so last year with Moreno-Pineda. But that's all I can remember.

Damn, John just went and played the Delmon/Garza card.

jokin
08-07-2012, 01:19 PM
I wouldn't mind that .330 OBP batting 9th next year. Clearly not if he is batting second (or first).

Yes. I proposed this earlier in the season, with Mauer rightfully moving up to the 2 spot.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 01:21 PM
Yes. I proposed this earlier in the season, with Mauer rightfully moving up to the 2 spot.

Mauer should have been entrenched into the two slot five years ago.

Sigh. It's just not going to happen. Gardy toyed with the idea for awhile but then realized that Mauer didn't play second base so a move had to be made.

twinswon1991
08-07-2012, 01:23 PM
And yet these numbers are similar to his entire MiLB career.

All three proposed OF are non-qualifiers, but here is their current valuation:

Revere $12.7
Parra $8.3
Bourjos $6.8

UZR/150- Defensive metrics 2011-12

Revere 18.2
Bourjos 16.3
Parra 11.7

As RP mentioned, these numbers for Revere would be higher if he were playing full-time in CF as Bourjos and Parra are. I can't say that any contender would want Revere over who they currently have, but Revere would be a cheap alternative in CF for the next 5 years, not only allowing dollars to be allocated to other areas of need, but also with his personality and weekly highlight reel defense, a ticket-revenue enhancer.

Revere has nice range thus the web gem type range but when adding in arm he cant hold Parra or Bourjos's jocks as a defender.

Shane Wahl
08-07-2012, 01:24 PM
Mauer should have been entrenched into the two slot five years ago.

Sigh. It's just not going to happen. Gardy toyed with the idea for awhile but then realized that Mauer didn't play second base so a move had to be made.

Yes. The skull density there is mind-boggling.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 01:26 PM
Revere has nice range thus the web gem type range but when adding in arm he cant hold Parra or Bourjos's jocks as a defender.

You can't honestly believe that arm is as important as range. You just can't.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-07-2012, 01:30 PM
c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.

This was the biggest thing I disagree with. How often do we see players in their 30's peak? Cuddyer and Willingham are a few examples that we have seen first hand. I don't buy that there is a prime in baseball unlike other sports. It's not very physical and is much more mental. A player in his 'physical prime', or in that 27-29 year old range, isn't significantly more likely to be in his 'career prime'.

To follow that up, I agree that Revere gives the Twins a better chance. I strongly disagree with trading Span before Revere because it is an EXCELLENT idea to trade high on Ben after this season. It's almost a guarantee that Revere will decline next year and his value couldn't get much higher. Both Revere AND Span should be sent packing if a good offer comes around because neither is necessary for the future. Hicks is our CF, Arcia is our RF, and Benson is our LF. Hicks, Benson, and Arcia will of course need a little more time to develop, but they are all knocking at the door in AA and it's possible we see them in September call-ups and certainly in Spring Training. I wouldn't mind holding on to Denard until the 2013 deadline rather than the offseason to be a stopgap in the meantime. Simply put, Denard is more 'proven' and can be counted on to compete at a consistent level. His value probably won't change much. Parmelee, Doumit, and Mastroianni are all reasonable stopgap solutions as well.

MY PLAN: Trade Revere in the 2012-2013 offseason.
Spring Training OF/Opening Day OF:
Willingham LF, Span CF, Mastroianni RF, 4th OF Parmelee (Parmelee splits time at 1st and DH in addition)

Here's where it gets interesting.
Think of the trio Benson, Arcia, and Hicks...

Trade Span at the 2013 deadline. If 1/3 Outfielders or more progress. Extremely likely.
Second Half OF (If one of Benson/Hicks progress):
Willingham LF, Hicks/Benson CF, Mastroianni RF, 4th OF Parmelee

Second Half OF (If only Arcia progresses):
Willingham LF, Mastroianni CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Parmelee (Parmelee splits time at 1st and DH in addition)

Trade Willingham at the 2013 deadline. If 2/3 Outfielders or more progress. Somewhat likely.
Second Half OF (If both Arcia and one of Hicks/Benson progress)
Parmelee/Doumit LF, Hicks/Benson CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Mastroianni


Second Half OF (If both Hicks and Benson progress; Not Arcia)
Benson LF, Hicks CF, Parmelee/Doumit RF, 4th OF Mastroianni

Consider trading Justin Morneau if 3/3 Outfielders progress. Unlikely.

Second Half OF
Benson LF, Hicks CF, Arcia RF, 4th OF Mastroianni

In hindsight, I actually like keeping Span last deadline. It's nice to have him around while we wait for players with more potential. None of these arrangements are intended to be competitive and you'll see that I am expecting the entire trio to be prepared for 2014, not 2013. Hopefully Span, Revere, and Willingham would all fetch good SP hauls. I love Denard Span and Ben Revere and would hate to see them go, I really do. The moves would definitely be very unpopular with the fanbase and I understand that. They both have great personalities and have become fan favorites. But what's to say we don't like the new guys too? Trading Morneau makes me very uncomfortable because I am one of the believers. If the outfield all pans out in 2013, the Twins really can't put Parmelee there and he would need to spend more time between 1B and DH. This is a solid plan to derail the logjam in the outfield and what I think would get the Twins back on track to contention!

twinswon1991
08-07-2012, 01:32 PM
You can't honestly believe that arm is as important as range. You just can't.




Nope range is the most important but you cant be an elite defender without having great range and a good arm.

stringer bell
08-07-2012, 01:33 PM
I think that Revere could likely bring back more in the offseason, while Span would at the deadline.

I would rather keep both, trade Morneau for said high SP prospect, keep the OF defense stellar, and make Parmelee the everyday 1B next year.I don't think a team so power challenged in the middle infield can afford to carry two slap hitters in the outfield as regulars. Either Span or Revere must go. I'd rather move Span because of Revere's explosiveness on the bases. If only an outfielder is moved, the Twins kind of owe it to Parmelee to give him a shot in RF. If Morneau is moved as well, you are banking on Parm as your 1B. Actually, I think the Twins should trade Morneau as well as one of Span/Revere.

jokin
08-07-2012, 01:35 PM
No, just as Denard Span isn't elite. It's good but not elite. For a player to be considered "elite" status for me, he has to be in the top three at his position at any given time. Revere isn't that guy and I don't think he will be.

But that doesn't mean he's not valuable.

Under those strict criteria he's definitely not elite and without additional power and more plate discipline he has no hopes of ever becoming Josh Hamilton, but then, you are a demanding grader.

He is valuable, projecting out as #2 (#1, if he possibly catches Trout?) in SB and admittedly underrated as #2 in UZR for 2011-12 and batting .300, even with a low OBP, are still numbers virtually all players would kill for. If he does go on the block, the Twins can't repeat past faulty talent assessment mistakes like Garza, Gomez, Young, Dickey and Lohse.

diehardtwinsfan
08-07-2012, 01:35 PM
Revere matters and to make myself clear:

Span has a higher likehood of backsliding than Revere

based on:

a. Revere is a better player right now
b. Span's major medical issues (concussion and inner ear - yes they are asymptomatic now, but not sure for how long)
c. Revere is before his prime right now while Span at 29 next season will be at the apex of his prime and will be downhill from then

And yes Revere does matter and I think that he will give the Twins a better possibility of competing than Span.

I'm not sure I agree with this at all. Revere has more range (though Span is above average in the field) with lousy arm. Span has more power and gets on base more. He's not quite as good of a base stealer. Span is the better player right now. You are correct that Span will start his decline phase too, but I'm highly skeptical of guys whose only tool is speed and rely on a high BABIP. He's one tweaked hammy away from being a lousy player. I agree that Span gets traded, but let's be realistic. Revere is not an upgrade.

jokin
08-07-2012, 01:36 PM
I don't think a team so power challenged in the middle infield can afford to carry two slap hitters in the outfield as regulars. Either Span or Revere must go. I'd rather move Span because of Revere's explosiveness on the bases. If only an outfielder is moved, the Twins kind of owe it to Parmelee to give him a shot in RF. If Morneau is moved as well, you are banking on Parm as your 1B. Actually, I think the Twins should trade Morneau as well as one of Span/Revere.

This, but only if they don't screw up on the acquired trading assets.

jokin
08-07-2012, 02:00 PM
Nope range is the most important but you cant be an elite defender without having great range and a good arm.

Only in UZR, I guess.

jokin
08-07-2012, 02:24 PM
You are correct that Span will start his decline phase too, but I'm highly skeptical of guys whose only tool is speed and rely on a high BABIP. He's one tweaked hammy away from being a lousy player. I agree that Span gets traded, but let's be realistic. Revere is not an upgrade.

What player isn't one hamstring injury away from being a lousy player? Revere is only 24, virtually everybody last year said he had hit his ceiling and now look where he is. I agree that he likely will regress back closer to .300, but look what he's been able to accomplish during his "out of his head" stretch even with Mauer behind him in a mini-slump (206/292/353 in last 9 games). And he's not just a better base-stealer, but a much better guy on the bases, stealing and everything else, Span at times can look lost, confused, asleep or scared on the basepaths. It seems the (admittedly flawed) Sabre-valuation numbers are overvaluing Revere and the Sabre-guys want to put a stop to the madness.

Is there a new valuation number floating around out there somewhere that corrects for Over-BABIP and Over-UZR metrics? It's my understanding that Baseball Reference uses lower defensive values.

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 02:25 PM
I'm not sure I agree with this at all. Revere has more range (though Span is above average in the field) with lousy arm. Span has more power and gets on base more. He's not quite as good of a base stealer. Span is the better player right now. You are correct that Span will start his decline phase too, but I'm highly skeptical of guys whose only tool is speed and rely on a high BABIP. He's one tweaked hammy away from being a lousy player. I agree that Span gets traded, but let's be realistic. Revere is not an upgrade.

Beg to differ

Revere leads Span in wOBA, wRC+, WAR and each of AVE, OBP and SLG (and OPS of course).

As far as WAR goes, 2.8 vs 2.7 (Revere vs. Span), there is a 4 point bonus Span's way because of the position (-2.7 for Revere and +1.3 for Span). Put Revere where he belongs (CF) and he would be leading the whole team in WAR. In other words we would be a 6-7 WAR Centerfielder. (Ain't that "elite" ;) ?)

Just sayin'

jokin
08-07-2012, 02:29 PM
Beg to differ

Revere leads Span in wOBA, wRC+, WAR and each of AVE, OBP and SLG (and OPS of course).

As far as WAR goes, 2.8 vs 2.7 (Revere vs. Span), there is a 4 point bonus Span's way because of the position (-2.7 for Revere and +1.3 for Span). Put Revere where he belongs (CF) and he would be leading the whole team in WAR. In other words we would be a 6-7 WAR Centerfielder. (Ain't that "elite" ;) ?)

Just sayin'

Nope, just a slump away from "mediocre":o

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 02:36 PM
um.... MIL a contender? I guess as much as the Twins are ;)

The Phillies will be all out for a lead-off man/CF this off-season, and Span would be a perfect fit for them. Revere too, but Span and the Phillies will be a match made in heaven and the Twins could get a nice return back.

I missed this earlier. I think Span could rake in Citizen's Bank Ballpark. Put him in a ballpark that isn't death to left-handers (even ones with masher ability) and I think he turns into a 10-12 homer guy. That greatly increases his value.

twinswon1991
08-07-2012, 02:36 PM
Nope, just a slump away from "mediocre":o

He was also a Clete Thomas hot streak from not getting a chance this year.

A 3 month hot streak does not a good player make.

With that said Revere has brains and awareness on the bases Span only wishes he had.

jokin
08-07-2012, 02:58 PM
He was also a Clete Thomas hot streak from not getting a chance this year.

A 3 month hot streak does not a good player make.

With that said Revere has brains and awareness on the bases Span only wishes he had.

Agreed about the 3-month hot streak.....Except those consistent high minor league numbers suggest some level of similar success is likely to last longer than 3 months as his career progresses.

Says a lot more about management than Revere that the Twins envisioned that Clete Thomas would ever be capable of a "Clete-Thomas-hot-streak". It's not a frequent item in his resume at any level. I think the whole thing with Revere was protecting Span's psyche and potential value down the road as he attempted his comeback from last year's lost, injury-riddled season.

Steve Lein
08-07-2012, 03:17 PM
to Original Poster: Revere's not worth nearly as much as you're thinking in a trade, Span would bring back quite a bit more...

They are comparable outfielders on defense, and similar runners on the basepaths (Revere's obviously a bit quicker and a better basestealer), BUT, Span's bat is worth quite a bit more.

Span's career line in the majors: .285/.359/.387 = .746 OPS, and has topped an .800 OPS twice in his career.

Revere's career line in the majors: .286/.327/.336 = .663 OPS, and never topped a .750 OPS at any level in the minors above Beloit.

Do not underestimate how big of a difference those numbers paint as far as what type of hitters/batters they are. In that regard, Span is far more valuable (and honestly, that is where 75% -or more- of a guys "value" in a trade is derived).

Span gets on base by doing more than just hitting singles, and face it, that's all Revere does (Span actually has already set a career high for 2B's this year). Revere's avg. right now is almost 50 points higher than Span's, but the difference in OBP is negligible.

And I'm not at all saying I dislike Revere, in fact I like him a lot, and have always told people who were skeptical of him that he'd adjust to MLB pitching more than fine as far as Batting Avg. is concerned, just not for any type of power, which some seem to expect.

Span is also my resident Favorite Twins player at the moment, but I thought he should have been traded this year if for no other reasons than Revere is an obvious replacement in CF and batting leadoff, and Span was worth a decent SP in return. Also, as someone else mentioned above, on a rebuilding team, you don't trade a young guy making the minimum and under team control for years for the older guy whose contract will be over by the time you're done rebuilding when they are so interchangeable on the roster you already have.

With all that said, it also has been pretty nice having them BOTH around, right?! Why try to fix something that aint broke?!

When Aaron Hicks is here this September though, then you'll really see what an "elite" all-around defensive CF is... q;)

Curt
08-07-2012, 03:29 PM
I wouldn't mind that .330 OBP batting 9th next year. Clearly not if he is batting second (or first).

Just for a little perspective... American League averages for 2012:



Lineup Position

OBP


1st
.333


2nd
.315


3rd
.347


4th
.345


5th
.321


6th
.318


7th
.313


8th
.302


9th
.291






All
.321



Who wouldn't want a .330 OBP guy batting 9th? Half the teams could use that in the 1 and/or 2 spot.

ALessKosherScott
08-07-2012, 03:39 PM
- Replace Revere with Parmelee. Some time early next season, Arcia is going to be knocking on the door. This gets Chris some playing time in the meantime for the next move...
...
- Hold on to Span until the 2013 offseason, at which point the second of Hicks/Arcia/Benson should be knocking on the door.


My two cents is that it's a pretty risky bet that you're going to win two out of three of Arcia/Hicks/Benson. They're all good enough prospects, but they're not exactly Harper and Trout either. Or even Kubel really. Each one has serious warts that threaten their upside, with Benson's contact problems being way more severe than Revere's power issues. That doesn't mean you don't dangle Revere. No one should be untouchable on a team that's heading toward another 90 loss season. That just means you have to be pretty quick to take him off the market pretty quickly when the market for leadoff hitters runs dry.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 03:54 PM
My two cents is that it's a pretty risky bet that you're going to win two out of three of Arcia/Hicks/Benson. They're all good enough prospects, but they're not exactly Harper and Trout either. Or even Kubel really. Each one has serious warts that threaten their upside, with Benson's contact problems being way more severe than Revere's power issues. That doesn't mean you don't dangle Revere. No one should be untouchable on a team that's heading toward another 90 loss season. That just means you have to be pretty quick to take him off the market pretty quickly when the market for leadoff hitters runs dry.

Yeah, it's a significant risk. I think at least one of them is going to succeed in MLB but it's looking more and more to me like Benson might not cut it. That means you have to hit on both Arcia and Hicks to make that plan work.

Still, I think it's an option worth exploring (and it's part of the reason why I suggested holding off on a Span trade until the following season at the earliest).

jokin
08-08-2012, 12:11 AM
Ben Revere stats update through games of 8/7/12 plus cumulative career minor league totals.

This season: 329/360/387 BABIP: 356

Minor League: 326/383/404 BABIP: ~355

Top Gun
08-08-2012, 02:31 AM
I would trade any OFer I could for a Young SP! I would prefer to trade Willingham & Parmelee for a pitcher like Drew Pomeranz. Then sign a FA like Liriano or A. Sanchez. Let's see how they do the rest of the year in our division.

Buck Nasty
08-08-2012, 05:17 AM
Span's career line in the majors: .285/.359/.387 = .746 OPS, and has topped an .800 OPS twice in his career.

Revere's career line in the majors: .286/.327/.336 = .663 OPS, and never topped a .750 OPS at any level in the minors above Beloit.

Do not underestimate how big of a difference those numbers paint as far as what type of hitters/batters they are. In that regard, Span is far more valuable (and honestly, that is where 75% -or more- of a guys "value" in a trade is derived).

Revere has a higher OPS than Span this year. Your comparison doesn't take into consideration that at age 24, Revere is still getting better. He moved through the minors pretty quickly. Had he repeated a level (like many guys do including Hicks), he certainly would have inflated his career OPS. Just look at the difference between this year and last year at the MLB level.

I feel your comparison isn't completely fair since you are choosing to exclude his one year at Beloit from his overall minor numbers (the year he had a .930 OPS) while using all his MLB career line. At age 24 and with only two full years under his belt, his MLB career averages are probably less important than his year over year improvement.

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 06:31 AM
Ben Revere stats update through games of 8/7/12 plus cumulative career minor league totals.

This season: 329/360/387 BABIP: 356

Minor League: 326/383/404 BABIP: ~355

It's more than a little disingenuous to include his Rookie Ball (.358) and A Ball (.416) seasons in that number. Remove those two lower ball seasons and his MiLB BABIP is around .330, which is a more sustainable number.

Steve Lein
08-08-2012, 08:53 AM
Revere has a higher OPS than Span this year. Your comparison doesn't take into consideration that at age 24, Revere is still getting better. He moved through the minors pretty quickly. Had he repeated a level (like many guys do including Hicks), he certainly would have inflated his career OPS. Just look at the difference between this year and last year at the MLB level.

I feel your comparison isn't completely fair since you are choosing to exclude his one year at Beloit from his overall minor numbers (the year he had a .930 OPS) while using all his MLB career line. At age 24 and with only two full years under his belt, his MLB career averages are probably less important than his year over year improvement.

Higher OPS... okay, by .006 pts... Can and will Revere get better? He certainly can and I'd expect improvements in some places (not necessarily hitting, a .329 average isn't exactly easy to keep duplicating), but that's not a sure thing, this could also be his best year (say, if he follows what Span has done...are you expecting him to be a .360/.400 hitter next year now?!), which wouldn't be all that close to Span's best year. My point is that Span is much more valuable as a hitter than Revere, as his obp/slugging, and thus, OPS, is not driven solely by his batting average.

Steve Lein
08-08-2012, 09:00 AM
and I didn't include Revere's .930 OPS season at Beloit because it's an obvious outlier in his MiLB career (remember, never above .750 anywhere else...). His OPS at AAA this year was .700, while hitting .330, like he is now with Twins. Please don't ever think Revere is going to be closer to the .930 OPS guy he was at Low-A than the .750 OPS guy he is now in the majors...

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 09:06 AM
and I didn't include Revere's .930 OPS season at Beloit because it's an obvious outlier in his MiLB career (remember, never above .750 anywhere else...). His OPS at AAA this year was .700, while hitting .330, like he is now with Twins. Please don't ever think Revere is going to be closer to the .930 OPS guy he was at Low-A than the .750 OPS guy he is now in the majors...

If a guy has a career track record in AA/AAA of ~.700 and one season of .900+ in A/A+, you always weight the AA/AAA stats significantly more, particularly when you're talking about multiple seasons of consistent play.

Lots and lots of guys post gaudy numbers in the low minors. If they don't show any sign of doing it again in the upper minors, there's an overwhelming chance that they'll never be anything close to that low minors player in the major leagues (barring a few outliers where players were promoted to the high minors at an extremely young age and hit the majors by age 20-21).

Steve Lein
08-08-2012, 09:18 AM
^ exactly.

ericchri
08-08-2012, 09:56 AM
Noticed some of the talk about "peak" seasons due to age difference between Span and Revere, and it made me remember an interesting article Joe Posnanski from SI did to take a cursory look at the question. He set the bar fairly high for a "good" season, and you can argue every which way from Sunday how to define a more reasonable criteria to judge those good seasons by age, but for a quick glance at the issue it was definitely surprising to see the approximate "peak" age.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/02/aging-with-chart.html

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 10:02 AM
Noticed some of the talk about "peak" seasons due to age difference between Span and Revere, and it made me remember an interesting article Joe Posnanski from SI did to take a cursory look at the question. He set the bar fairly high for a "good" season, and you can argue every which way from Sunday how to define a more reasonable criteria to judge those good seasons by age, but for a quick glance at the issue it was definitely surprising to see the approximate "peak" age.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/02/aging-with-chart.html

Yep. A player's peak is typically between his 26-28 age seasons with the best year being age 27.

Buck Nasty
08-08-2012, 10:10 AM
Players don't peak at age 24. If he had repeated levels in the minors (as many players do), he likely would have posted higher OPS during a repeated year. Again, I point to the year over year improvement - this year to last. Continued improvement won't come in the form of adding points to his BA. It will come from taking more walks, and hopefully more gap power. He's never going to be a high OPS guy. But .750+ with his defensive range = pretty good player.

Buck Nasty
08-08-2012, 10:13 AM
Whoops. I was late and a post got in between. My response was to Steve and Brock.

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 10:47 AM
Players don't peak at age 24. If he had repeated levels in the minors (as many players do), he likely would have posted higher OPS during a repeated year. Again, I point to the year over year improvement - this year to last. Continued improvement won't come in the form of adding points to his BA. It will come from taking more walks, and hopefully more gap power. He's never going to be a high OPS guy. But .750+ with his defensive range = pretty good player.

Absolutely. Revere with a .750 OPS looks really good up the middle. On a corner, not so much. Still acceptable but not the best use of his skill set.

I'm not sure how much room Revere has to grow (it all depends on whether turns into Denard with some gap power or whether he stays a Jamey Carroll type player) but I'm sure we will see some improvement in slugging as he develops. The only questions I have are (1)Will he learn to take a walk and (2)How high can he keep his BABIP. Those are the differences between a pretty decent Juan Pierre type player and one of the better leadoff guys in all of baseball.

Steve Lein
08-08-2012, 11:14 AM
^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

Buck Nasty
08-08-2012, 11:28 AM
^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

Well, I think that pesky concussion thing might have had something to do with Span regressing. It's hard to hit/play well when you can't stand up straight. Read my post again. Nobody is expecting Revere to improve by adding points to his BA. But is it really unreasonable to believe that a 24 year old player won't get better at pitch selection? If he takes more walks he'll be fine. He's a contact hitter with speed. If he's hitting the right pitches, he'll get plenty of doubles. You don't have to be a HR hitter to post a decent OPS (see Mauer).

Steve Lein
08-08-2012, 11:47 AM
Span's OPS dropped from his rookie season before he had any concussions...

But regardless, to me, Revere's problem isn't pitch selection, which is why I don't see much improvement in OBP/OPS (will always be driven by his average).

My reasoning: He's actually pretty good at taking pitches I think, but he's also much better than most at making contact with the ball when he swings. Mauer is a great "hitter", right? Well, Mauer has K'd in 13.4% of his Plate Appearances this year. Revere? 8.0%. When he swings, he puts the ball in play. I am convinced if you looked it up (perhaps someone here knows how), Revere would have a very far below the league average swing-and-miss percentage. He doesn't foul that many balls off either. What I'm getting at, is if he swings, he is almost assuredly putting the ball out there for someone to have to field. If he wants to improve his OBP by drawing walks, he's going to have to leave that bat on his shoulder far more often than he is capable of, I think, because of this.

He's a great "contact hitter", which in his case, is a detriment to the On-base skills you're hoping he can develop.

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 11:47 AM
^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

If you read the thread, I'm doing everything but assuming that Revere will improve. I said his slugging will probably improve. That's probably true, as most players improve their slugging a bit as they approach their peak age. Will he start walking more? Will his BABIP drop? Those are the questions I raised when I started the thread.

Span is a special case. He suffered a concussion and moved to a stadium that's a tough sell for players like him. If he didn't have dizziness problems and still hit in the Metrodome, it's hard to say what kind of numbers he'd be posting today.

Steve Lein
08-08-2012, 11:51 AM
Brock - I've been responding to Buck, your points pretty much agree with mine in relation to his.

Brock Beauchamp
08-08-2012, 11:52 AM
Brock - I've been responding to Buck, your points pretty much agree with mine in relation to his.

Use the Reply with Quote button, my man! It solves those types of problems...

Steve Lein
08-08-2012, 12:01 PM
And just an FYI in relation to Span in Metrodome vs. Target Field:

In 2009 (metrodome), in 145 games, Span had 34 XBH's. This year (Target Field), in 101 games, he has 34 XBH's (career high in 2B's already).

If I go park specific, in 2009 (Metrodome), in 73 games: 8 2B's, 6 3B's, 5 HR's. (.446 slugging)

In 2012 (Target Field), in 51 games: 20 2B's, 2 3B's, 2 HR's. (.502 slugging)

I'll take 2012 Span in TF over 2009 Span in Metrodome any day of the week...

And I'll keep the reply with quote in mind, I don't like clogging up my posts with them usually, though!

jokin
08-08-2012, 03:40 PM
Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.

From Fangraphs

Career BA/OBP/BABIP.....(OBP-BA differentials):

Boggs: 328/415/344 (+.087)
Cobb: 366/433/378 (+.067)
Carew: 328/393/359 (+.065)
Puckett: 318/360/342 (+.042)
Brock: 293/343/338 (+.040)

Revere: 288/327/316 (+.039)

First two seasons OBP-BA and BA/OBP

Revere: (.039) 288/327

Puckett: (.034) 292/326
Cobb: (.034) 337/371
Carew: (.045) 283/328
Brock: (.052) 263/319
Boggs: (.079) 356/435

BB% career/first 2 years

Boggs 13.1/11.3
Cobb 9.6/5.5
Carew 9.6/5.4
Brock 6.8/6.3
Puckett 5.7/4.2

Revere 5.1/5.1


Based on the numbers so far in his career, other's first two years in MLB- and with apologies to presumptuosuly making comparisons to 5 HOFers, how close is Revere to having a career leading to greatness- or leading to mediocrity?

Based on Revere's improvements this year in driving the ball much harder, hitting more gaps- sometimes more deeply- and by all appearances, more confidently and better handling of MLB pitching in general, can he at age 24, improve to a higher level in SLG (power production usually rises as a career continues) and OBP ( as demonstrated above, all of the above players improved their plate discipline and ability to draw more walks as their career continued, Cobb and Carew had very similar first two year BB rates to Revere- with the most dramatic % increase improvements in their overall BB% rate) and have a reasonable shot to end up at least close to the tail end (34-36% OBP) of the above HOFers' numbers?

Brock Beauchamp
08-09-2012, 06:23 AM
From Fangraphs

Career BA/OBP/BABIP.....(OBP-BA differentials):

Boggs: 328/415/344 (+.087)
Cobb: 366/433/378 (+.067)
Carew: 328/393/359 (+.065)
Puckett: 318/360/342 (+.042)
Brock: 293/343/338 (+.040)

Revere: 288/327/316 (+.039)
Your math is bad. Brock's ISO Discipline is .050 (like I said) and Revere has raised his ISO Discipline almost ten points in the last few days. We'll see if it holds.

Out of your list, that leaves Puckett. That's a pretty small list. No one is claiming that riding a high BABIP to the Hall of Fame is impossible. I'm only stating that it's incredibly unlikely.

And we shouldn't even be talking about Cobb. There's nothing worth comparing between a dead ball era player and a modern player. The game is completely different.