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John Bonnes
08-06-2012, 11:59 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?891-Morneau-vs-The-Void

jorgenswest
08-07-2012, 12:19 AM
It might be added that given the position of first base on the defensive spectrum, Morneau is really in competition any other bat. A team could sign Hamilton and then fill 1B internally by moving a player from another position.

In any case, there will be demand for Morneau. Starting pitching is such a valued asset, but the Twins must continue to demand it in return or keep Morneau.

BD57
08-07-2012, 06:37 AM
Finish out the year and then evaluate.

Morneau's been really good for the last month. Maybe it's just a 'good run' ... maybe it's a "return to form."

Parker Hageman
08-07-2012, 06:54 AM
I think the question here shouldn't be "what is currently available to other teams" but "what teams need a 1B AND can take on $14 million contract". If I am assessing the field, it would seem that the Dodgers/Rangers and maybe to a lesser extent Blue Jays/Orioles are the types of teams that will be in the market for Morneau.

Cap'n Piranha
08-07-2012, 07:27 AM
Right now, I say ride the Mornie train for as long as you can. If the Twins can pick up some decent starting pitching this off-season, there's no reason they can't compete with the Tigers and Sox by trotting out Span-Revere-Mauer-Willingham-Morneau-Plouffe-Doumit as their top 7 every day. Ideally, Mornie is his old self next year, and the Twins are back to being competitive. Runner-up scenario is Justin is good, but the team's not, and we flip him at the deadline for a huge haul.

TKGuy
08-07-2012, 07:28 AM
I'd say keep Morneau. I think if he does return to form, next year at the deadline he would be worth a lot, or we could try to extend him with a two-year deal if he keeps this up.

How much value does a Parmalee have with his killing the AAA leagues? Would the Pirates or Brewers be willing to give up a starter? Morneau probably can't get us a starter, but I bet you that Parmalee could.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 07:28 AM
I'd assume that the Twins would have to pay some salary to get anything decent in return.

With that said, Morneau would be extremely tempting to other teams if he rakes for the rest of the season, hits another 7-10 dingers, and gets that OPS over .850. At that point, you can start arguing that the old Morneau is back.

Alex
08-07-2012, 08:33 AM
I think the question here shouldn't be "what is currently available to other teams" but "what teams need a 1B AND can take on $14 million contract". If I am assessing the field, it would seem that the Dodgers/Rangers and maybe to a lesser extent Blue Jays/Orioles are the types of teams that will be in the market for Morneau.

Exactly, and I'd add willing to give something back in return, which may not happen. At this point, I don't see the reason to free up his salary as it doesn't sound like the Twins will use it, and selling off Morneau for cheap won't put people in th seats.

I'd like to see three conditions for the Twins to pull the trigger in the offseason.
1) They have a plan to do something with the money.
2) Parmelee continues to hit.
3) Someone is desperate enough to give something in return.

Otherwise, why not just wait until next year's trade deadline? It's a bit of a gamble but if he continues to hit and stays healthy his demand should be way up as he'd be a great addition for another team and $7m might be more palatable for a team looking at the playoffs.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 08:47 AM
I think Morneau's highest value would come in the trade deadline next season.
Of course if you get an offer you can't refuse this off-season then trade him, but if he continues to hit well (I don't see why he won't) He could be back to a .850+ OPS, 25+ HR guy next season, an impact bat like that at the deadline next season could potentially bring back a Beltran like package.

Also, I think the Twins have a decent chance to compete in 2013, I don't think its a coincidence that once Morneau started hitting better this year the team started playing better overall.
I'd much rather trade Span this off-season since he could bring in a bigger haul, you can find at bats for Parmelee at RF and DH in that scenario.

Lastly, I like Morneau and he is one of my favorite Twins players ever, I'd personally hate to see him traded, especially for a salary dump type reason.

diehardtwinsfan
08-07-2012, 08:49 AM
yeah, short of trading span and letting Parmelee sit in right for a bit, I don't see how they can keep Morneau and Parmelee long term. Morneau is a fan favorite, and my personal favorite, but from a business standpoint, the Twins would be wise to flip him for pitching as I assume they would never flip a guy like Parmelee. By the end of the season, it should be fairly obvious if he's back, and with less money owed and a track record that states that he is a difference maker when healthy, I think some team would trade a nice pitching prospect for him.

crarko
08-07-2012, 09:22 AM
yeah, short of trading span and letting Parmelee sit in right for a bit, I don't see how they can keep Morneau and Parmelee long term. Morneau is a fan favorite, and my personal favorite, but from a business standpoint, the Twins would be wise to flip him for pitching as I assume they would never flip a guy like Parmelee. By the end of the season, it should be fairly obvious if he's back, and with less money owed and a track record that states that he is a difference maker when healthy, I think some team would trade a nice pitching prospect for him.

Maybe testing the waters for Parmelee isn't a bad idea. There's a good chance the future at 1st base for this team after Justin is Mauer followed by Sano.

tmerrickkeller
08-07-2012, 09:46 AM
I like JM, too, but we're debating whether he would be worth his 2013 salary to some team "if he continues to produce." Suggesting that he would bring a strong pitching prospect in addition to someone willing to pay his $13M 2013 salary is setting the bar too high. It's the reason we're all disappointed in the actual trades that occur - because not too many GMs are willing to give up a good prospect AND overpay (versus his FA value).

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 09:56 AM
I said this in an earlier thread too: This season Morneau has been an around 1 WAR guy. Will probably finish around 1.5-2 for the season. Next season if everything goes well, he will be a 2-3 WAR guy. Parmelee can easily cover at least half of that (realistic/pessimistic scenario, not optimistic. He had 1.3 WAR last season in a single month or so -WAR is an additive, not a rate stat btw; likely he will match it but I am not even going there). So, if the Twins can get a 2-3+ WAR SP either for Morneau or with his $14M for 2013, they will be ahead. This means that even if they get what they got for Valencia they will be ahead if they get a good pitcher with the cash...

Just math and who is available behind Morneau and what the needs of this club are...

diehardtwinsfan
08-07-2012, 10:01 AM
I like JM, too, but we're debating whether he would be worth his 2013 salary to some team "if he continues to produce." Suggesting that he would bring a strong pitching prospect in addition to someone willing to pay his $13M 2013 salary is setting the bar too high. It's the reason we're all disappointed in the actual trades that occur - because not too many GMs are willing to give up a good prospect AND overpay (versus his FA value).


Here's the thing, if Morneau is reasonably close to his old self, someone will do that, because 13M is a bargain. Had it not been for injuries in 2009 and 2010, Justin would have likely been in the MVP conversations, but between a cracked spine and a nasty concussion, he had pretty bad second halfs of those seasons, and then in 2011, he was obviously not back... For that matter, he struggled this spring as well. He's starting to hit lefties again, he's hitting with authority, and if he keeps that up for the remainder of the season, some team will give something up for him as he's put the injury issues behind him. Worst case is that Ryan has to wait till June/July to trade him.

Nick Nelson
08-07-2012, 10:03 AM
I think the question here shouldn't be "what is currently available to other teams" but "what teams need a 1B AND can take on $14 million contract". If I am assessing the field, it would seem that the Dodgers/Rangers and maybe to a lesser extent Blue Jays/Orioles are the types of teams that will be in the market for Morneau.

I'd rather cover half Morneau's salary and get a quality return than simply try to unload his contract. If he keeps hitting through the end of the year, I have to imagine there are a number of teams that would be very interested in adding him at $7M next year. At that point, you create a bit of a bidding war, which is exactly what the Twins need.

Riverbrian
08-07-2012, 10:46 AM
Is Parmelee out of options??? If Parmelee can play at AAA we are good. Let Morneau play and build up trade value. Parmelee will arrive when Morneau is dealt or not re-signed to a contract. Or when Morneau, Willingham or Doumit are on the DL.

If Parmelee is out of options... and continues to hit at AAA. He could force the Twins hand to move Morneau before they should.

Is Parmelee out of options?

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 10:49 AM
Is Parmelee out of options??? If Parmelee can play at AAA we are good. Let Morneau play and build up trade value. Parmelee will arrive when Morneau is dealt or not re-signed to a contract. Or when Morneau, Willingham or Doumit are on the DL.

If Parmelee is out of options... and continues to hit at AAA. He could force the Twins hand to move Morneau before they should.

Is Parmelee out of options?

No, I think he has an option for 2013. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

The problem with holding him at AAA is that Chris is absolutely killing it in Rochester. The guy has posted an OPS of 1.150 (crikey!) with an OBP of .475 (double crikey!) after posting an OPS of over 1.000 in Minnesota last September. If he plays every day, he mashes the ball. You have to find a spot for a guy like that sooner rather than later.

TheLeviathan
08-07-2012, 10:56 AM
Yeah, Parmalee needs to be on this team. My guess is, though, it will be in RF next year with Span on his way out the door.

It's really a shame they don't have somewhere for him right now.

Riverbrian
08-07-2012, 10:57 AM
No, I think he has an option for 2013. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

The problem with holding him at AAA is that Chris is absolutely killing it in Rochester. The guy has posted an OPS of 1.150 (crikey!) with an OBP of .475 (double crikey!) after posting an OPS of over 1.000 in Minnesota last September. If he plays every day, he mashes the ball. You have to find a spot for a guy like that sooner rather than later.

Yeah Parmelee may force his way in with continued stellar play. It could be that there is nothing for him to prove in AAA. However, he has to have a spot to play and 1B and DH are covered by guys who will not play in Rochester. He has to wait his turn and that turn will most likely come with an injury to Morneau, Willingham or Doumit.

It sounds like a sticky situation but it's a good problem to have. Parmelee increases our options... Not only Morneau but Doumit and Willingham are trading options because of his play.

Until then... I would not do anything to those 3 to decrease trade value. Moving Parmelee ahead of them would send the wrong message.

Thrylos
08-07-2012, 10:58 AM
No, I think he has an option for 2013. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

and 2014. He was a September callup in 2011. He has 2 more option years. This was his first option season.

Brock Beauchamp
08-07-2012, 10:59 AM
and 2014. He was a September callup in 2011. He has 2 more option years. This was his first option season.

Right. He was only a September guy last season. I wasn't thinking.

DPJ
08-07-2012, 11:03 AM
Yeah, Parmalee needs to be on this team. My guess is, though, it will be in RF next year with Span on his way out the door.

It's really a shame they don't have somewhere for him right now.

Parm is no OF, he's best at 1B or DH.

If the made Doumit an actually backup C/1B then it fixed everything but I don't see that happening.

diehardtwinsfan
08-07-2012, 11:08 AM
Parm is no OF, he's best at 1B or DH.

If the made Doumit an actually backup C/1B then it fixed everything but I don't see that happening.

I'd agree with that, but Gardy won't.... Doumit has certainly warranted PT with his play as well and Gardy is going to give that time to the vet. Honestly, if Mauer could play some 3rd instead of 1st, it might make a bit more sense. I'd think if Joe can play first, he should be able to play 3rd.. He has the arm for it.

TheLeviathan
08-07-2012, 11:09 AM
Parm is no OF, he's best at 1B or DH.

If the made Doumit an actually backup C/1B then it fixed everything but I don't see that happening.

I'm not saying I want him there long-term, but that's what is likely to happen.

StormJH1
08-07-2012, 11:11 AM
I respect John's research and what he's trying to do here, but the approach is misleading. Trying to predict in August 2012 what teams will roll with at first base in April 2013 is much harder than it would seem, ESPECIALLY at 1st base. Teams want big, dumb power at first base, and the position becomes a dumping ground for guys who fail defensively at other positions, but have power potential. Every year, there's guys like Russell Branyan, Garrett Jones, and slew of Triple-A or "post hype" prospects that end up playing 1st base for MLB teams in unpredictable fashion. Given the choice between that option (often promoted from within) or paying $14 million to Morneau next year AND giving up prospects of any value, teams are going to opt for the former. And if they do trade, there are a lot of other guys that could be moved with cheaper salaries.

I just don't want us to do the Liriano thing where we overvalue a Twin based on past contributions, and then are surprised by how little we actually get in return. Granted, Morneau was a bigger star than Liriano, and has hit much better of late. But the league knows that he's one accident away from being worthless to them. He'd probably be viewed as more of a Jim Thome or Frank Thomas 2006 plug than any type of long-term option you would give up assets for.

Also, the Twins "brand" has taken a severe hit in these two terrible seasons. We are now considered as one of the "bad team" akin to Seattle, Houston, etc. Those teams probably have some good players with value, but it's tough to sell other teams on good players stuck on horrible teams.

Riverbrian
08-07-2012, 11:13 AM
The other solution is crazy and I don't see Gardy ever doing it. But how about this. A true rotation of Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee and even Mauer next year.

Let's assume Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and WIllingham are holding down DH, C, 1B and LF next year. One Day on the Bench each week will get Parmelee and everybody playing time without having anyone spend ungodly periods of time on the bench.

Just a little creative thinking and they can all fit in. I doubt Gardy would do it though. It's a crazy idea.

JB_Iowa
08-07-2012, 11:17 AM
I want to believe that Morneau's health issues are behind him .... but I have a hard time forgetting that it isn't JUST the issue of his concussion or even his concussion AND his wrist.

He also had a fairly serious back problem in August/September 2009.

Do you just dismiss that and figure he'll be okay from here on out? Do you think about that in conjunction with the concussion and wrist and his age and see Red Flags? Do you think that the change in his training routine will help him avoid injury (less is more and concentrate on the core?

I like Morneau and have previously (2009/2010) argued that he was more important to the team's success than Mauer -- in part because I think Justin has leadership skills and now that he is playing regularly and well, I think he might exhibit more of them.

But there may be a short window for capitalizing on a return for him. I just feel like we're holding our breath waiting for something else to happen.

Dave T
08-07-2012, 12:02 PM
Morneau is too good. If his current level of performance continues for the rest of the year, the Twins should extend him. Parmalee is a good first baseman for a mediocre team -- trade him, not Morneau.

SeanS7921
08-07-2012, 12:18 PM
Morneau is so good again. He is finally hitting like an average first baseban. YEEEA! Lets hope he doesn't fall down, get hit by a pitch or punch a wall the rest of the season or else next year is a wash. What do average first basemen with a huge salary go for in the trade market? Nothing that's what. If they could dump his contract it would be great but I doubt any team would do that even for nothing in return.

Craig in MN
08-07-2012, 12:55 PM
I don't see TR eating salary and I don't see him trading Morneau for non-prospects. The Dodgers had at least some interesting Morneau and a lot of veteran arms in their rotation. It's really hard to say what the Dodgers are going to do next year, but they are spending money and need a first baseman. TR is going to try to get some veteran arms for the rotation somehow (right or wrong). I could easily see a trade to the Dodgers centered around Morneau for Harang or Capuano or even Ted Lilly, depending on how certain his health is. Jerry Hairston, Juan Rivera or (also unhealthy) Matt Guerrier could get tossed in to keep the payroll in line. There's a lot of ways they could make it work.

I don't particularly like this trade...just saying it could happen.

Ultima Ratio
08-07-2012, 01:54 PM
I respect John's research and what he's trying to do here, but the approach is misleading. Trying to predict in August 2012 what teams will roll with at first base in April 2013 is much harder than it would seem, ESPECIALLY at 1st base. Teams want big, dumb power at first base, and the position becomes a dumping ground for guys who fail defensively at other positions, but have power potential. Every year, there's guys like Russell Branyan, Garrett Jones, and slew of Triple-A or "post hype" prospects that end up playing 1st base for MLB teams in unpredictable fashion. Given the choice between that option (often promoted from within) or paying $14 million to Morneau next year AND giving up prospects of any value, teams are going to opt for the former. And if they do trade, there are a lot of other guys that could be moved with cheaper salaries.

I just don't want us to do the Liriano thing where we overvalue a Twin based on past contributions, and then are surprised by how little we actually get in return. Granted, Morneau was a bigger star than Liriano, and has hit much better of late. But the league knows that he's one accident away from being worthless to them. He'd probably be viewed as more of a Jim Thome or Frank Thomas 2006 plug than any type of long-term option you would give up assets for.

Also, the Twins "brand" has taken a severe hit in these two terrible seasons. We are now considered as one of the "bad team" akin to Seattle, Houston, etc. Those teams probably have some good players with value, but it's tough to sell other teams on good players stuck on horrible teams.

I find all this very sensible and thoughtful. Good post!

For a couple months now I've been pushing for Hammer to DH next year, moving Revere to left, Span in center and a combo/platoon RF of Parm, Mauer and Hammer. Parm the default RF. Mauer 2x a week when not catching, and Hammer in right against LHP with Doumit at DH against LHP. Doumit catches 2-3x a week and can rotate at DH with Hammer. Doumit also becomes your PH bat on the bench when not a DH or catching.

We can never have more than one of Hammer/Parm/Doumit in the OF and under my plan Doumit would never play defense except at catcher.

jlovren
08-07-2012, 03:28 PM
Has Parmelee ever played right field? Would it make sense for him to start getting reps in the outfield?

jokin
08-07-2012, 03:32 PM
I'd agree with that, but Gardy won't.... Doumit has certainly warranted PT with his play as well and Gardy is going to give that time to the vet. Honestly, if Mauer could play some 3rd instead of 1st, it might make a bit more sense. I'd think if Joe can play first, he should be able to play 3rd.. He has the arm for it.

I've been begging for this transition to accelerate since soon after Koskie left the squad and Joe demonstrated his injury-proneness. For some reason the Twins and Mauer don't see the obvious help it would have brought to the team and still can, there's no doubt that he could: 1) play 3B decently, 2) extend his career and 3) help the team out greatly.

mnfireman
08-07-2012, 03:40 PM
Morneau's 2012 numbers (in 86 games) project out to 28 HR's & 102 RBI (162 games). He won't get to those numbers but 25 HR & 85 RBI would be acceptable given what he's gone through.

crarko
08-07-2012, 03:41 PM
I've been begging for this transition to accelerate since soon after Koskie left the squad and Joe demonstrated his injury-proneness. For some reason the Twins and Mauer don't see the obvious help it would have brought to the team and still can, there's no doubt that he could: 1) play 3B decently, 2) extend his career and 3) help the team out greatly.

Joe Mauer is still a fine athlete. He could probably be a gold glove at 3rd given the chance. I think it's a good idea.

Of course I have zero control of it. Hahahaha.

jokin
08-07-2012, 03:46 PM
The other solution is crazy and I don't see Gardy ever doing it. But how about this. A true rotation of Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee and even Mauer next year.

Let's assume Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and WIllingham are holding down DH, C, 1B and LF next year. One Day on the Bench each week will get Parmelee and everybody playing time without having anyone spend ungodly periods of time on the bench.

Just a little creative thinking and they can all fit in. I doubt Gardy would do it though. It's a crazy idea.

Too much, Gardy prefers "simple stuff."

How about getting "creative" with the pitching staff so they become effective enough so that only 12 are rostered at any one time and then sticking with a two-man catching staff (has Butera vested his pension yet? If they go 3 Cs next year, I hope a more diversely talented guy like Hermann gets a decent shot at taking the #3 job). A manager can get a lot more creative with playing time with that extra bat on the bench. The days of a bench comprised of only the likes of Butera, Casilla, Tolbert, Harris et al, besides being embarrassing, have registered opportunity cost in the W-L record.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 03:48 PM
I've been begging for this transition to accelerate since soon after Koskie left the squad and Joe demonstrated his injury-proneness. For some reason the Twins and Mauer don't see the obvious help it would have brought to the team and still can, there's no doubt that he could: 1) play 3B decently, 2) extend his career and 3) help the team out greatly.

Hopefully Plouffe proves to be a valuable asset at 3rd base for the foreseeable future. If Joe moves to 3rd base I think it would be a full time move since he would have to continue to hone his craft at the hot corner. It is much easier for him to catch a few times a week and play 1st base when he needs a break, seeing how the skill set to play 1st is very minimal. (If that makes sense?)

At this point I like the current usage of Mauer, I wouldn't mind him catching more, but when you have a guy like Doumit who is perfectly capable there is no reason to not run them out there 50/50.

Also one thing we should keep in mind moving onto 2013: Span, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit and Willingham have all had injury issues multiple times in the past. It's amazing they have stayed as healthy as they have this year as a whole, but I wouldn't be shocked if one or two went down for a decent amount of time next year (thus freeing up even more at bats for Parmelee) and while I think Parmelee has some potential, I don't think he is the type of player who you move a Morneau for at this point to free up a spot for him. Next year at the deadline if the Twins are out of it? Different story.

If a team offers you one of top 25 pitching prospects in baseball? Different story.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-07-2012, 03:50 PM
The other solution is crazy and I don't see Gardy ever doing it. But how about this. A true rotation of Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee and even Mauer next year.

Let's assume Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and WIllingham are holding down DH, C, 1B and LF next year. One Day on the Bench each week will get Parmelee and everybody playing time without having anyone spend ungodly periods of time on the bench.

Just a little creative thinking and they can all fit in. I doubt Gardy would do it though. It's a crazy idea.

If Morneau and Willingham are healthy and effective there is no reason to take them out of the lineup one day a week. Mauer/Doumit are obviously a diff story with the catching/injury thing.

I'd imagine most managers wouldn't do something like that. If Parmelee comes up and starts mashing in the bigs they will figure out a way to keep his bat in the lineup. (See: Mark Trumbo)

diehardtwinsfan
08-07-2012, 04:13 PM
Hopefully Plouffe proves to be a valuable asset at 3rd base for the foreseeable future. If Joe moves to 3rd base I think it would be a full time move since he would have to continue to hone his craft at the hot corner. It is much easier for him to catch a few times a week and play 1st base when he needs a break, seeing how the skill set to play 1st is very minimal. (If that makes sense?)

At this point I like the current usage of Mauer, I wouldn't mind him catching more, but when you have a guy like Doumit who is perfectly capable there is no reason to not run them out there 50/50.

Also one thing we should keep in mind moving onto 2013: Span, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit and Willingham have all had injury issues multiple times in the past. It's amazing they have stayed as healthy as they have this year as a whole, but I wouldn't be shocked if one or two went down for a decent amount of time next year (thus freeing up even more at bats for Parmelee) and while I think Parmelee has some potential, I don't think he is the type of player who you move a Morneau for at this point to free up a spot for him. Next year at the deadline if the Twins are out of it? Different story.

If a team offers you one of top 25 pitching prospects in baseball? Different story.

The problem is the log jam. You have Morneau, Doumit, and Mauer all taking reps at 1B/DH thus ending any hope to get Parmelee up playing every day. The only difference between 3B and 1B is that you need an arm and that you will get far more throwing opportunities. 1B is just as much a hot corner for lefties except that there's less lefties in MLB. I haven't seen enough of Mauer at 1st, but I've not heard there being issues with him fielding grounders. If Mauer has the arm, why not let him play 3rd? That will give Plouffe an occasional day off, or you can shift Trevor to the middle if you want to go with an all-offense lineup.

DJSim22
08-07-2012, 09:24 PM
What's wrong with having a little depth? Everyone is assuming there are no injuries to Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, or Doumit.

People keep saying what if Morneau isn't back, what if he gets hurt. Well, we've seen Parmelee hit big league pitching for a month, what if he plays everyday and hits .194 like he was off the bench this year?

We need pitching, but have money coming off the books with Pavano and Capps. Use that money to get a pitcher and keep a line up that 1-7 is starting to look real good. No need to rush Parmelee.

Dilligaf69
08-07-2012, 10:40 PM
You are taking a chance keeping Justin going into next yr and hoping he stays healthy to MAYBE get a good deal at the deadline. What if the Twins are contending next July??? they won't trade him then... I think he gets moved this winter... Parm needs to play and unless they trade Span(which is probable) then Ben can shift to CF and Parm can play RF everyday, might not be ideal defnsively because of his lack of experience there but Revere would cover alot of Parms ground in right CF and then you can have both Justins and Parmalee's bat in the lineup. Of course Ben would have to cover basically the whole OF with osh in left but hey if Josh, Chris and Justin combine for 85 hr's does it matter:D

PseudoSABR
08-08-2012, 02:47 AM
What kind of production would Morneau have to have in order for you to consider an extension? After all, in the 2014/15/16, who else will be paying beyond Mauer and inexpensive Willingham*. I'd be tempted to give Morneau Willingham's deal. (Afterall, it ain't our money. /hattip usafchief)

*I find it hard to believe the Twins would really invest high amounts of dollars in FA pitching, but if the Twins were willing to, trading Morneau for snot rags might be more palatable.

USAFChief
08-08-2012, 04:01 AM
You are taking a chance keeping Justin going into next yr and hoping he stays healthy to MAYBE get a good deal at the deadline. What if the Twins are contending next July??? they won't trade him then... I think he gets moved this winter... Parm needs to play and unless they trade Span(which is probable) then Ben can shift to CF and Parm can play RF everyday, might not be ideal defnsively because of his lack of experience there but Revere would cover alot of Parms ground in right CF and then you can have both Justins and Parmalee's bat in the lineup. Of course Ben would have to cover basically the whole OF with osh in left but hey if Josh, Chris and Justin combine for 85 hr's does it matter:D

Yeah, that'd be awful, if the Twin were contending next July.

Just to be on the safe side, they should take steps now to ensure that doesn't happen.

Craig in MN
08-08-2012, 10:24 AM
What kind of production would Morneau have to have in order for you to consider an extension? After all, in the 2014/15/16, who else will be paying beyond Mauer and inexpensive Willingham*.


Willingham's deal will be done after 2014 too. Of course, it's not just the contracts that you have to plan around, it's the rest of the players on the team, particularly in 2014. You already have Willingham, Doumit & Mauer who could fill the DH, C & 1b spots, and perhaps Parmalee. Does it makes more sense to sign Morneau to force Willingham's glove to the outfield or look for an outfielder instead?

I don't think there's anything Morneau could do to have me give him a 3 year deal. His concussion history is too troubling. I could see giving him a 1 year deal in 2014, or a deal with options. I'd say 1 year, $7 million. If he isn't playing worth near $7 million, he's probably not playing well enough to displace someone else on the team. If he's playing well enough to get more than that, then someone else will be more willing to gamble on him than I would.

Dave T
08-08-2012, 11:32 AM
GM's gamble all the time. Look at the White Sox, with Peavey and Rios. Big gambles at the time, not so much now. Or look at the signing bonus given Sano. Morneau is finally hitting lefties again, which means he's back in business. If he keeps hitting like this, he's as big an asset to the Twins as Mauer or Willingham. I'd rather give Morneau big bucks than a Cliff Lee type of free agent pitcher.

StormJH1
08-08-2012, 11:57 AM
Yeah, that'd be awful, if the Twin were contending next July.

Just to be on the safe side, they should take steps now to ensure that doesn't happen.
No worries, Terry Ryan's already on it. Bill Smith even gave him a head start.

It absolutely murders me when Terry Ryan talks about how "free agents don't work" with his "smartest guy in the room" voice, yet the organization has spent the past half decade paying out huge contracts to their own guys before they became free agents. How is this really any different? If you end up overpaying Mauer, Morneau, Pavano, Capps, or Nick Blackburn not because of "market inflation" but because they're "your guys", does the reason really matter to the result?

If the trade market for Morneau isn't good enough to move him now (or next July), then what's the real risk in waiting out the contract to see if he's still a viable player before you commit 2 or 3 more years to him? Morneau is an extremely popular player, and I think the general fanbase would be abhorred if the Twins traded him. If he chooses to leave to some other team as a FA, then so be it. I think the Aaron Gleeman's of the world totally understand that fanbase aspect of it, but are so tuned into the pragmatic reasons for flipping him for value that they lose sight of how beholden this front office is to player popularity. It's not like they exactly "drove a hard bargain" in signing Mauer. I really can't see them ever trading Morneau.

StormJH1
08-08-2012, 12:05 PM
GM's gamble all the time. Look at the White Sox, with Peavey and Rios. Big gambles at the time, not so much now. Or look at the signing bonus given Sano. Morneau is finally hitting lefties again, which means he's back in business. If he keeps hitting like this, he's as big an asset to the Twins as Mauer or Willingham. I'd rather give Morneau big bucks than a Cliff Lee type of free agent pitcher.
Nishioka was a gamble. Doesn't mean I fault the Twins for trying and being so blatantly wrong on him, necessarily, but it helps to point out both the good and bad sides of risk.

Morneau's in his 30's now. I agree with you that he has value to the team, and they might as well keep him if other teams aren't going to give up good prospects for him. But an extension? Even if he didn't have the terrible concussion problem, plus the wrists, back, and neck to worry about, how much is a 32-35 year-old Morneau really worth? Large power hitters fall off quickly, and they either become something else (like a singles hitter) or are out of the game.

Morneau hasn't made it through a season since 2008, and even in that year, he broke down physically and struggled terribly through September and October from playing all 163. And as much as I hate to say it, it could be over tomorrow because of the concussions. He could fall backwards like Koskie did, or simply move too fast for a ball or something, and that could be it. Enjoy Morneau for as long as you can - we have him through 2013, and don't need to make any rash decisions.

diehardtwinsfan
08-08-2012, 12:13 PM
No worries, Terry Ryan's already on it. Bill Smith even gave him a head start.

It absolutely murders me when Terry Ryan talks about how "free agents don't work" with his "smartest guy in the room" voice, yet the organization has spent the past half decade paying out huge contracts to their own guys before they became free agents. How is this really any different? If you end up overpaying Mauer, Morneau, Pavano, Capps, or Nick Blackburn not because of "market inflation" but because they're "your guys", does the reason really matter to the result?

If the trade market for Morneau isn't good enough to move him now (or next July), then what's the real risk in waiting out the contract to see if he's still a viable player before you commit 2 or 3 more years to him? Morneau is an extremely popular player, and I think the general fanbase would be abhorred if the Twins traded him. If he chooses to leave to some other team as a FA, then so be it. I think the Aaron Gleeman's of the world totally understand that fanbase aspect of it, but are so tuned into the pragmatic reasons for flipping him for value that they lose sight of how beholden this front office is to player popularity. It's not like they exactly "drove a hard bargain" in signing Mauer. I really can't see them ever trading Morneau.

the trick is to lock up your guys during their prime and then jettison them when they are on the other side... That does work.