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View Full Version : Fun With Numbers "A Positive Twist"



Loosey
08-06-2012, 02:07 PM
Could the Twins be in 3rd place by the end of the week? Possibly. The Twins are currently only 3 games behind the Indians who are in a complete tailspin right now with the upcoming series between the two teams we might see some shifting in the middle of the AL Central. Personally, I think a finish in 3rd place in the division is quite a feat for this team if you remember how they started.

On May 27th the Twins were 15-32 (17 games under .500). Today August 6th, they are 47-61 (14 games under .500). Over their last 61 games or 56% of the games they have played this season Twins are playing .524 baseball (32-29). So really how bad is this season's team? The record of 47-61 is terrible, but the first 2 months of the season were historically bad. If they were playing at the their current 61 game clip over the entire 108 games this season this team's record would be 57-51, good enough for 2.5 games out of first place.

Where could the Twins end the season at? Using their currect full season record extrapolated 162 games the Twins projected record would be 71-91. But this post is meant to put a positive twist on things, so I'll do just that. Making the assumption of a continued .524 winning percentage the rest of the way the Twins projected record will be 75-87. If the Twins finish this season just 12 games under .500 I would say that is where most knowledgable fans and experts would put them to start the season and quite a ways away from the 100 loss season many were suggesting in Mid-May. What are your thoughts on the season if this is actually how it ends?

J-Dog Dungan
08-06-2012, 02:11 PM
Everything relies on their pitching. If the starters continue to do well, they could beat the 75-87 mark. If not, then who knows?

spideyo
08-06-2012, 02:19 PM
More fun: The Twins are currently 4th in all of MLB (2nd in the AL) in stolen bases, and have struck out less than everyone but the Royals. Also, Revere has the second longest active hitting streak in the league.

snepp
08-06-2012, 02:28 PM
Hammer is just three home runs (28) behind the ML leader Dunn (31).

Nick Nelson
08-06-2012, 03:02 PM
Revere is less than 10 PA away from qualifying for the batting title. His average would rank third in the AL behind Trout and Cabrera.

jokin
08-06-2012, 03:17 PM
The "streaking Twins" idea is a bit of a mirage.

Twins in July: 12-14 Winning percentage: .461

jokin
08-06-2012, 03:24 PM
Twins have in recent times started out stinky and finished even more feebly:

Twins in Sep 2010: 2-11 winning percentage- .153 (last 13 games counting the playoffs)
Twins in Ap/May '11: 17-36 winning percentage- .320
Twins in Au/Sep '11: 13-41 winning percentage- .240
Twins in Ap/May '12: 18-32 winning percentage- .360
Twins in Au/Sep '12: ??????

Nick Nelson
08-06-2012, 03:26 PM
The "streaking Twins" idea is a bit of a mirage.

Twins in July: 12-14 Winning percentage: .461
You really seem to be missing the point of this thread. If you're incapable of saying anything positive, probably best to stay away from this one.

snepp
08-06-2012, 03:31 PM
blah

blah

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/000/554/facepalm.jpg

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-06-2012, 03:44 PM
The Twins have the 2nd most come from behind wins after the 3rd inning in all of baseball.

mikeee
08-06-2012, 03:45 PM
The twin's next opponent has a 9 game losing streak in tact.

Brock Beauchamp
08-06-2012, 03:46 PM
The Twins have the 2nd most come from behind wins after the 3rd inning in all of baseball.

On Tuesdays with a tail wind.

Sorry, that "third inning" caveat just cracks me up.

On the other hand, it's a testament to just how much their starting pitching has crippled their win total this season.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-06-2012, 03:46 PM
Could the Twins be in 3rd place by the end of the week? Possibly. The Twins are currently only 3 games behind the Indians who are in a complete tailspin right now with the upcoming series between the two teams we might see some shifting in the middle of the AL Central. Personally, I think a finish in 3rd place in the division is quite a feat for this team if you remember how they started.

On May 27th the Twins were 15-32 (17 games under .500). Today August 6th, they are 47-61 (14 games under .500). Over their last 61 games or 56% of the games they have played this season Twins are playing .524 baseball (32-29). So really how bad is this season's team? The record of 47-61 is terrible, but the first 2 months of the season were historically bad. If they were playing at the their current 61 game clip over the entire 108 games this season this team's record would be 57-51, good enough for 2.5 games out of first place.

Where could the Twins end the season at? Using their currect full season record extrapolated 162 games the Twins projected record would be 71-91. But this post is meant to put a positive twist on things, so I'll do just that. Making the assumption of a continued .524 winning percentage the rest of the way the Twins projected record will be 75-87. If the Twins finish this season just 12 games under .500 I would say that is where most knowledgable fans and experts would put them to start the season and quite a ways away from the 100 loss season many were suggesting in Mid-May. What are your thoughts on the season if this is actually how it ends?

+50000

I have been trying to say this for weeks. 75 wins after this horrendous start would be a nice victory. Gives me hope for next season and beyond.

This team looks like a .500 team currently and has some money coming off the books this off-season along with some intriguing trade chips and prospects knocking on the door.

mikeee
08-06-2012, 03:48 PM
Morneau hit .315 in the month of July. He's .421 in the 5 games he's been in this month.

Obie
08-06-2012, 03:54 PM
Revere is less than 10 PA away from qualifying for the batting title. His average would rank third in the AL behind Trout and Cabrera.

He is also second in the league in SB behind Mike Trout.

ALessKosherScott
08-06-2012, 04:15 PM
The calling up of Nishioka should lead to all kinds of fun jokes with Asian stereotypes. And we all win when that happens.

Thrylos
08-06-2012, 04:35 PM
- Don't look, but the Twins' have a team OPS+ of 101 and each regulars in every position (except the middle infield) has individual OPS+ of >103
- Drew Butera has been well above the Mendoza line (.218) and flirting with a career best .600 OPS

J-Dog Dungan
08-06-2012, 04:44 PM
Despite his recent slump, Willingham is 3rd in the majors with 81 RBI's.

jm3319
08-06-2012, 08:36 PM
Twins are undefeated and score 10+ runs per game with Nishi in the lineup! Schedule that World Series parade now!

USAFChief
08-06-2012, 08:49 PM
I have said for a couple months now this team is not that far from contention in 2013. Fix the starting pitching--and there is money to spend this winter if the Pohlads choose to--and it's not out of the realm of possibility to dream of the postseason a year from now. That's why I was against trading Liriano, and have been against dumping guys like Morneau and Willingham.

Its also looking more and more like Diamond isn't a mirage. Someone made the comparison in today's game thread and I think it's a good one...looking like a poor man's Mark Buehrle.

CDog
08-06-2012, 09:03 PM
Stolen from tonight's game broadcast, but thought it was worth sharing here in case folks missed it: Since the end of July last year (I think the 29th was the date they gave), the Willinghammer leads the league in home runs with 45.

Ultima Ratio
08-06-2012, 09:07 PM
Cdog, I'd love to read your comment but some State Farm ad is blocking it.

Ultima Ratio
08-06-2012, 09:12 PM
Oh good, the ad moved now. That is an impressive and encouraging stat.

jokin
08-06-2012, 09:22 PM
You really seem to be missing the point of this thread. If you're incapable of saying anything positive, probably best to stay away from this one.

I'd like to think of it as a reality check.

DJSim22
08-06-2012, 09:24 PM
75-87 would be a nice finishing mark considering where the team started, but I wonder if Sept call-ups may change your record?

The run differential has to be +10 or so since the horrid start. We were minus -80 almost after opening day.

I don't know what exactly to think about 2013:

Diamond is certanly promising, but can he realistically put up a 2.91 ERA again?

I am starting to like our line up more and more, if Plouffe can continue his improvement, it could be a real nice line-up.

And why in the world haven't we extended Morneau before we can't afford him? Multi year contract when his value was low would have made sense. Waiting now is going to drive up the price a lot I fear.

jm3319
08-06-2012, 09:40 PM
And why in the world haven't we extended Morneau before we can't afford him? Multi year contract when his value was low would have made sense. Waiting now is going to drive up the price a lot I fear.


I agree. He's much more of a risk under his current cost, but if you added 2 years on at roughly half of what he is making now (made up figure, no idea what he is worth), he is more affordable and easier to move if he regresses a bit or we simply want to get younger at 1B. If he continues to rake like he has been these last few games (very small sample size I realize, but he is approaching his career BA) he's going to be getting closer to his $14 M a year value anyway

jokin
08-06-2012, 09:48 PM
Pedro Hernandez debut for Rochester tonight, demonstrating that he has the pitch-to-contact concept down pat:

2I/10H/6ER/2K/.625OBA/27.00ERA/40 strikes in 60 pitches

diehardtwinsfan
08-06-2012, 09:49 PM
why exactly would Morneau want to extend? He extends now, he's leaving significant dollars on the table. He knows he is returning to normal, just like we do. He plays out his contract and does decent next year and someone gives him a nice deal.

snepp
08-06-2012, 10:12 PM
Pedro Hernandez debut for Rochester tonight, demonstrating that he has the pitch-to-contact concept down pat:

2I/10H/6ER/2K/.625OBA/27.00ERA/40 strikes in 60 pitches

Here's a reality check, it's almost as if one of the site's proprietors didn't ask you to move along.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-06-2012, 10:17 PM
Jeff Gray > Jokin

Revere has broken the dry spell of first round picks who haven't had much of an impact for the Twins. Hopefully Hicks and Gibson can both help next year.

jokin
08-06-2012, 10:24 PM
Here's a reality check, it's almost as if one of the site's proprietors didn't ask you to move along.

Wow, I think someone might want to consider switching to decaf and/or Red Bull Light.

OK, how about this one. The Twins now have the best one-two catcher/pitchers in all of baseball (with Rivera debuting tonight in Roc.):

Butera 1IP/0H/0ER/1BB/1K/1.00 WHIP 17 pitches- 9 strikes....clocked at 94MPH
Rivera 1IP/1H/0ER/0BB/1K/1.00 WHIP 10 pitches-10 strikes

jokin
08-06-2012, 10:25 PM
Jeff Gray > Jokin

Revere has broken the dry spell of first round picks who haven't had much of an impact for the Twins. Hopefully Hicks and Gibson can both help next year.

Funny. I seem to recall that you were politely asked to refrain from personal attacks.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-06-2012, 10:28 PM
The Houston Astros are 4 and 30 in their past 34 games.

Just remember even during our awful April it could always be, much, much, much, much worse.

Loosey
08-06-2012, 10:41 PM
I don't think I can even name 1 player on the Houston Astros today. . . . Checking Roster . . . . And the only players I recognize are on their DL. I'm impressed they've won 4 out of 34.

CDog
08-06-2012, 10:52 PM
The Houston Astros are 4 and 30 in their past 34 games.

Just remember even during our awful April it could always be, much, much, much, much worse.

Holy goodness! I tend to pay less attention to the NL, knew they were bad of course, but thought you had to have made a typo or were exaggerating for effect. Just wow.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-06-2012, 10:56 PM
Funny. I seem to recall that you were politely asked to refrain from personal attacks.

I apologize. Just didn't like seeing the one positive thread here get derailed repeatedly.

How about this:

Jeff Gray > Nishioka?

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-06-2012, 10:56 PM
Holy goodness! I tend to pay less attention to the NL, knew they were bad of course, but thought you had to have made a typo or were exaggerating for effect. Just wow.

The Rangers, Angels, A's and Mariners must be licking their chops.

jokin
08-06-2012, 11:13 PM
I don't think I can even name 1 player on the Houston Astros today. . . . Checking Roster . . . . And the only players I recognize are on their DL. I'm impressed they've won 4 out of 34.

Trying to be continually impressed and positive, good things can come in 4s, the Astros once had the Killer Bs (Biggio, Bagwell, Berkman, Beltran), who sadly, are all (figuratively) dead and gone. But now, the Twins have the 4 Killer D's in their starting pitching staff (Diamond, DeVries, Deduno, Deunsing) and these 4 have almost lowered the Twins SP ERA by 1.50 since their insertion in the rotation.

In the meantime, continuing to stay positive, the Twins are #4 (in the Central Division and in MLB ballpark rankings)! Even the Indians and 'Stros parks can't touch TF. The Astros have been cursed since they signed a 30 year deal with Enron, just before the biggest financial scandal in history hit the company. Their park looks good on TV and I always thought that playing in the "Field Formerly Known as Enron" or "The Juice Box" made all the losing at least somewhat palatable, but nope.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/29/ranking-baseballs-best-ballparks/

The NY Times rates ballparks:

4) Target Field
16) Progressive Field (Cle.)
20) Minute Maid Park (Hou.)

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-06-2012, 11:16 PM
Holy goodness! I tend to pay less attention to the NL, knew they were bad of course, but thought you had to have made a typo or were exaggerating for effect. Just wow.

About to lose tonight. I reccomend checking out the highlights, top of the 12th, runner on 1st, Washington bunts to move him over, hijinks occur, run scores and the bunter ends up on 3rd.

CDog
08-06-2012, 11:19 PM
About to lose tonight. I reccomend checking out the highlights, top of the 12th, runner on 1st, Washington bunts to move him over, hijinks occur, run scores and the bunter ends up on 3rd.

I will hope for black and white, fast choppy video, and old-timey slapstick movie music.

jokin
08-06-2012, 11:20 PM
I apologize. Just didn't like seeing the one positive thread here get derailed repeatedly.

How about this:

Jeff Gray > Nishioka?

That's the spirit.
I know it's probably just me, but laughing in the face of adversity and repeated "imbecility" (birdwatcher's characterization of the Twins FO decision on the acquisition of Nishi) can be therapeutically positive.

Jeff Gray's mangy beard>Nishi's non-descript sideburns

jokin
08-06-2012, 11:22 PM
I will hope for black and white, fast choppy video, and old-timey slapstick movie music.

The Benny Hill theme could also be applied to the play at 2B from both teams tonight.

J-Dog Dungan
08-06-2012, 11:26 PM
Does anybody know how Andrew McCutchen is hitting .369 this late in the season? Actually, better question: What is his BABIP? It must be off the charts right now.

snepp
08-06-2012, 11:31 PM
Does anybody know how Andrew McCutchen is hitting .369 this late in the season? Actually, better question: What is his BABIP? It must be off the charts right now.

.419 right now per FG's.

CDog
08-06-2012, 11:31 PM
About to lose tonight. I reccomend checking out the highlights, top of the 12th, runner on 1st, Washington bunts to move him over, hijinks occur, run scores and the bunter ends up on 3rd.

Just watched. Before the pitch is even thrown in the highlight, I got distracted by the absolute sea of empty seats. And then the Bad News Bears routine breaks out (and that's not really a stretch at all). Yeah, not good times in Houston.

Riverbrian
08-06-2012, 11:31 PM
Holy goodness! I tend to pay less attention to the NL, knew they were bad of course, but thought you had to have made a typo or were exaggerating for effect. Just wow.

Holy Goodness? I was gonna give you crap about that. My son just pointed out that it's in the urban dictionary so now I'll thank you for making me hipper instead.

Positive numbers for all... The Minnesota Twins average 35,066 fans per home game. Good for 11th in the majors. Averaging more per game than the Mets, Nats, Braves, Reds, D-Backs, Jays and White Sox. The Twins have filled Target Center to 88 percent capacity in 2012. The Indians are ranked last... averaging 20,486 and filling The Jake to 47 percent capacity.

The Twins also draw an average of 30,932 fans to their opponents park during their road games. The Rangers in comparison draw 28,172 on the road.

This makes no sense in any universe but I thought I'd point it out and claim it to be positive.

old nurse
08-07-2012, 12:44 AM
- Don't look, but the Twins' have a team OPS+ of 101 and each regulars in every position (except the middle infield) has individual OPS+ of >103
- Drew Butera has been well above the Mendoza line (.218) and flirting with a career best .600 OPS

I think thryloss read the post about positivity. Couldn't resist

glunn
08-07-2012, 01:02 AM
On a positive note, I am hopeful that Deduno might be a solid #2 or #3 starter, and that Devries could be a solid #3 or #4.

Riverbrian
08-07-2012, 01:05 AM
On a positive note, I am hopeful that Deduno might be a solid #2 or #3 starter, and that Devries could be a solid #3 or #4.

Glunn... I gotta make an afternoon drive across North Dakota tomorrow. I hope the Highway Patrol is stationed elsewhere cuz I will be speeding to my hotel to watch Deduno.

Milkman
08-07-2012, 02:10 AM
Twins are undefeated and score 10+ runs per game with Nishi in the lineup! Schedule that World Series parade now!
See now this is a perfect example of what fun with numbers used to be. Manipulating numbers such as SSS for fun results.

glunn
08-07-2012, 02:21 AM
Glunn... I gotta make an afternoon drive across North Dakota tomorrow. I hope the Highway Patrol is stationed elsewhere cuz I will be speeding to my hotel to watch Deduno.

If you get stopped, at least you have a worthy defense.

Riverbrian
08-07-2012, 07:33 AM
If you get stopped, at least you have a worthy defense.

Me: Officer... I was rushing to my hotel so I can catch Deduno on the mound for the Twins.

Officer Poncherello: so you've been drinking.

Me: no no... He's got an awesome curve... He doesn't know where his fastball is going.

Ponch: close your eyes... Touch your nose... Walk this line. Say the alphabet backwards.

gil4
08-07-2012, 08:25 AM
Ponch: close your eyes... Touch your nose... Walk this line. Say the alphabet backwards.

Would you be breaking out your dance moves next? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW0UhYfs1es

Riverbrian
08-07-2012, 11:20 AM
Would you be breaking out your dance moves next? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW0UhYfs1es

The cops are little different down South I guess. lol.