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Jeremy Nygaard
08-01-2012, 02:41 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?865-My-Top-50-(plus-1)-Twins-Prospects-August-1-Edition

Badsmerf
08-01-2012, 06:33 AM
I think your grades are low on Gibson, Hicks, Benson, but doesn't look too bad. I might put Danniel Santana higher along with Walker and Vargas in the top 20?

kab21
08-01-2012, 07:07 AM
You forgot Felix Jorge. He's thrown just as many innings as Berrios whom you overrated imo. Jorge would have been somewhere in my 20's before the season and he hasn't disappointed yet.

I think you also overrated Harrison based on his appy league stats. His bat is good but he likely carries no defensive value. I'll take Kepler easily since he is younger, less developed as a European, performing better and will have more defensive value.

I also don't get the love affair with Herrmann. he's only ranked 16 here (not ridiculously high) but he's a 24 yr old that has a <.800 OPS (sub .750 OPS) and he doesn't have good enough defense to be more than an occasional catcher. And by love affair the constant mention that Doumit's 2/7 contract is seemingly going to block him from being an MLB'er. His mediocrity is going to block him from being an MLB'er.

diehardtwinsfan
08-01-2012, 08:21 AM
pretty sure hudson boyd wasn't born in 82... just saying :)

This appears to be more tools based, I'd probably rearrange most of the top 10. Berrois is way to high, and you can argue Arcia should be 1/2. Rosario at 3. I'd bring Gibson up higher too, and Benson.

Jeremy Nygaard
08-01-2012, 08:21 AM
Thanks for all the feedback.

Santana, Walker and Vargas were all guys that were moved down in my last edit. #15-27 aren't separated by much and I tried not to overvalue what Vargas has done over the last two weeks. If he continues this tear, he'll move up.

Felix Jorge was omitted.



P

Jorge, Felix


55

Extreme
1/24/94













He should slot in at #21, between Boer and Walker.

I'm very high on Berrios. He might not have the build of a Jose Fernandez (Miami), but I could see him shooting up prospect rankings in a similar fashion. Some aren't convinced he can start, that's never been a question for me. I thought he could have been drafted as high as 15 or 20.

Kepler vs Harrison argument is valid. Does Kepler's recent power surge continue? I changed his risk from "extreme" to "high" recently, so no doubt he's on the rise.

I think Herrmann's ceiling is of a platoon player - that's where he slotted in - and that you're undervaluing his defense.

Jeremy Nygaard
08-01-2012, 08:24 AM
pretty sure hudson boyd wasn't born in 82... just saying :)

If that were the case, he'd be much lower. :\ Fixed now.

You could make all those arguments and I wouldn't fight you on them. But that's why prospect lists are fun!

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-01-2012, 09:02 AM
I too think that Hicks is to low, also the 55 seems a bit conservative as well. At the very least I think he is a 60 "solid major leaguer" and he really doesn't lack any tools at all at this point. If the power is legit (thinking 15-20 HR a year) and he can manage to hit .270 or so, he suddenly becomes a very nice CF, and possibly one of the best leadoff men in the game.

enge0280
08-01-2012, 09:40 AM
So where would you put Eduardo Escobar on this list if you thought he would still be counted as a prospect?
And Parmelee?

gunnarthor
08-01-2012, 09:55 AM
Fun list. I like Berrios a lot and was hoping the Twins would take him in the supp draft before they did but #5 is a bit aggressive. Hicks would be above Arcia for me but again, that's why these things are fun.

Kepler, Hicks, Arcia are all having pretty good years which really helps our farm system. I liked last years draft, even if Michael is struggling a bit, and it's good to see Harrison and Boyd doing well.

alarp33
08-01-2012, 10:10 AM
pretty sure hudson boyd wasn't born in 82... just saying :)

This appears to be more tools based, I'd probably rearrange most of the top 10. Berrois is way to high, and you can argue Arcia should be 1/2. Rosario at 3. I'd bring Gibson up higher too, and Benson.


This list is tools based, because that is what prospects are ranked/ drafted/ traded based off.

Monkeypaws
08-01-2012, 10:13 AM
Fun read.

I'm also on the Berrios bandwagon.

Matt VS
08-01-2012, 10:28 AM
Jeremy, love the write up. For someone who doesn't get the handbook (which I sometimes deeply regret), your summary is much appreciated. I can't help but notice there aren't any "safe" or "low" risk prospects on the list. I assume the Twins have called those players up already (DeVries, Dozier, Parmelee), but do teams typically have a number of of these prospects in the minors? Or are they called up quickly?

Jeff P
08-01-2012, 10:32 AM
I think this is a good list, in general I would rank the guys below A ball lower as the disappointment rate between E town and Beloit is really high. However I am far more excited about the system than I was a couple of years ago and there is a good balance of good prospects that we will see this Sept or next year and some very high upside guys that are still 2-4 years away.

One question, when you say that Polanco needs to show that he can hit do you mean next year at Beloit? Because his line at E town is .314/.400/.480 which I think is pretty solid; as a comparison Niko Goodrum is 16 months older (and ranked 32 spots higher) and his line at E town isn't any better: .242/.377/.470

twinstalker
08-01-2012, 11:19 AM
I think your Hicks rating is right on. A first-division regular is pretty high praise. Hicks has the look of a 2nd-division regular with a chance to be a 1st if he learns to hit both lefties and righties. 55 is the perfect rating for him. Part of the problem is definition, because a 55 as defined incorporates risk. That is, a 55 medium is actually a 60 high.

kab21
08-01-2012, 11:24 AM
How am I underrating Herrmann's defense? He's not good enough to be an everyday catcher and his bat isn't good enough to be a starter at any position (OF/1B) other than catcher. I fail to be impressed at all with a 24 yr old that has a .717 OPS his second time thru AA.

I like Berrios A LOT but this is too high too fast imo. There is absolutely no way that I can be convinced to put him over Gibson.

I would also move Minier's upside up a tick or two. He has more risk than those around him in the rankings but he also has more upside.

Thrylos
08-01-2012, 11:39 AM
Hard to tell with those things :)

But... If you have Buxton at 70, Rosario at 65 and Arcia at 60 as far as potential goes, kind hard for me to see how Hicks at 55 and Benson at 50 make sense... Buxton and Rosario probably too high and Hicks and Benson too low. All of those guys, other than Buxton, who should probably be +5 should be at the same potential. And Rosario probably little lower, but his 2B transition raises him

You got Josh Burris and Mason Melotakis way low, I think compared to people like Hudson Boyd and Luke Bard

SeanS7921
08-01-2012, 11:54 AM
Buxton is the top prospect the Twins have. He actually has two talents that would rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale no other Twins prospect has an 80 rating. Sano might have a 70 in Power. Buxton has an 80 in speed and an 80 arm. He has the most potential. I assume you don't rate Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendriks as propsects anymore even though if they were traded they would be prospects. Both in the Top 12 in the Twins system. Guys like Wheeler and BJ Hermesen have fun numbers in the minors but are 5 starters at best. Look at the K rates look at the competition. Not top 15 at all. Berrios is maybe top 15 but certainly not top 10 yet or even close to 5. That must have been a - Look what I did throw in. Alex Wimmers is to low. He has 3rd starter stuff and that still counts for something compared to guys like Wheeler and BJ.

Badsmerf
08-01-2012, 11:55 AM
kab, I'm also not impressed with Herrmann. He looks like a back-up catcher to me at this point. Catchers that can hit a little bit and play adequate defense stay around for a awhile, so I'm not saying he is a terrible prospect.

Matt- I think most prospects include a lot of risk. Many of these guys are in the minors because they have things to work on to get better. As prospects work up the ladder and stay consistent the risk drops and potential is clearer. Arcia, for example, would have less risk on my list since he has performed so well and stayed consistent. Every prospect has risk.

greengoblinrulz
08-01-2012, 12:05 PM
top 10 is same as mine....different order, no biggie.
Some disagreements in 2nd top...again no biggie as I see/hope Adam Walker is a top guy mostly
Am I wrong to think MN will be top 10 for team prospects next year

Jeremy Nygaard
08-01-2012, 12:38 PM
Lots of good feedback...

VodkaDave: Hicks needs to show power. That's the missing tool. #3-6, really, though, aren't separated by much.

enge: I would rank Parmelee as 50/Low (between Kepler and Benson) and Escobar as 45/Low (in between Goodrum and Hermsen). Dozier (45/Low) would slot in before Goodrum and Hendriks (50/Medium) right before Benson... basically all in that 10-15 range.

gunnarther: #5 on Berrios is aggressive. I said before the draft I thought he could be a #2 starter... I didn't want to back off of that now.

Matt VS: There are not many players labeled "safe". (I think only Matt Moore.) Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were "low"... many others that have MLB experience, but are still prospects are low. BA had Hendriks and Doyle as "low". I had Dinkelman as a 35/low, but he didn't make the cut. As far as purchasing the handbook, you would never regret it.

Jeff P: Polanco is hitting now (100 ABs in the Appy League), but has never hit over .250 before. The Appy League is a hitter's league and it's a small sample size. He needs to sustain. Hitting in Beloit would be a good continuation of this year. The difference between Polanco and Goodrum has a lot to with their body builds.

twinstalker: 55/Medium and 60/High are very similar, I went between the two for Hicks. Change those two, his ranking doesn't change, imo.

kab: Herrmann is a good defensive OF. So when your 4th OF and your 2nd (or 3rd) catcher can be the same person, there is value. I had Minier rated much higher in my initial list. Way higher... but I want him to play in a game before I rank him too high. I agree with you though.

thrylos: It's more than just the number though. I like to think of the risk factor as the floor. So Benson is 50/45, Hicks is 55/50, Arcia is 60/55, Rosario is 65/55, Buxton is 70/55. You can make a case that Benson could be higher. I've never been a huge believer. We can call Hicks 60/high (or 60/50), but I still think Arcia is a safer bet to reach a similar ceiling (albeit much different skills). But all is very debatable.

Burris is a reliever with control issues. Maybe he's too high. Melotakis, if he stays in the pen, which is expended, lowers his ceiling. Boyd and Bard are rated as guys that will have to pitch out of the rotation. Funny though, all four of those guys I had a hard time placing.

seans - Wheeler and Hermsen are back of the rotation guys for sure. Innings-eaters, which is exactly where I rate them. I think Wheeler can improve cause he's a big body. A velo increase isn't out of the question and the K-rate could come up. If not, yeah, he's a #5.

I wouldn't argue with you about Buxton being #1.

I had Wimmers higher, but TJ surgery is going to set him back. He was a 50/Medium (which rated him in the 12-13 ranger)... too many question made him a 50/High.

Again, thanks for all the feeback... it's hard to argue with any of the points that were made.

Jeremy Nygaard
08-01-2012, 12:40 PM
greengoblinrulz: Yes, unfortunately, you're wrong. The Twins won't be Top 10. I'm expecting ESPN and BA to put them somewhere between 16-22. They're top 6-7 is really good... the problem is between 8-20 where there is a lack of high-ceiling players (60/Extremes).

kab21
08-01-2012, 12:48 PM
Herrmann is on track to post <.700 OPS at the MLB level. That has no value unless he's playing C.

The Twins will be top 10 in the rankings. Sano, Buxton, Arcia and Rosario are all going to be top 50 (or really close). Gibson, Hicks, Berrios, Kepler and possibly 1-2 others will be in the top 150. BA doesn't rank that high but pretty much the entire top ten are legit prospects and not many teams have that kind of depth. Very few have more upside. The only problem with this org is that it's almost all hitters.

greengoblinrulz
08-01-2012, 12:48 PM
greengoblinrulz: Yes, unfortunately, you're wrong. The Twins won't be Top 10. I'm expecting ESPN and BA to put them somewhere between 16-22. They're top 6-7 is really good... the problem is between 8-20 where there is a lack of high-ceiling players (60/Extremes).
Was thinking about the top 6/8 takin em up the list....agree the 2nd 10 is a lot more unsettling. Im happy with our top 11 actually (include Walker/Hermsen as 10/11).
At least on the Twins end, you know more about your top prospects than you did entering the season.

greengoblinrulz
08-01-2012, 12:55 PM
Buxton is the top prospect the Twins have. He actually has two talents that would rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale no other Twins prospect has an 80 rating. Sano might have a 70 in Power. Buxton has an 80 in speed and an 80 arm. He has the most potential. I assume you don't rate Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendriks as propsects anymore even though if they were traded they would be prospects. Both in the Top 12 in the Twins system. Guys like Wheeler and BJ Hermesen have fun numbers in the minors but are 5 starters at best. Look at the K rates look at the competition. Not top 15 at all. Berrios is maybe top 15 but certainly not top 10 yet or even close to 5. That must have been a - Look what I did throw in. Alex Wimmers is to low. He has 3rd starter stuff and that still counts for something compared to guys like Wheeler and BJ.
Liam & Chris have passed over rookie status (already this yr) by next winter......we're kind of assuming the season ends today, but another month can raise/lower some of these guys alot. If Parm wouldnt have, his age may hurt him (as it does Benson/Gibson), but his AAA hitting is very intriguing.

Jeremy Nygaard
08-01-2012, 12:58 PM
The Twins ranked 18th entering the year (according to BA). Their #2 (and #100 overall) Benson has been disappointing. Michael (#6) has not performed. Hendriks (7), Parmelee (9) and Dozier (10) all graduated. Salcedo (16), Soliman (23) and Wimmers (25) have all had injuries.

The addition to Buxton and Berrios will help. And improvements by guys will help too. I just don't think, when viewing the big picture of the MLB, the Twins farm is Top 10... or in the discussion.

When February rolls around, I'll either be proven right or wrong, but until then... let's keep debating.

diehardtwinsfan
08-01-2012, 01:02 PM
Buxton is the top prospect the Twins have. He actually has two talents that would rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale no other Twins prospect has an 80 rating. Sano might have a 70 in Power. Buxton has an 80 in speed and an 80 arm. He has the most potential. I assume you don't rate Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendriks as propsects anymore even though if they were traded they would be prospects. Both in the Top 12 in the Twins system. Guys like Wheeler and BJ Hermesen have fun numbers in the minors but are 5 starters at best. Look at the K rates look at the competition. Not top 15 at all. Berrios is maybe top 15 but certainly not top 10 yet or even close to 5. That must have been a - Look what I did throw in. Alex Wimmers is to low. He has 3rd starter stuff and that still counts for something compared to guys like Wheeler and BJ.

I'm kind of curious where you are getting these numbers from... I never once saw any legit prospect person giving Buxton a single 80 much less two. I have seen several grade Sano at 80 power...

diehardtwinsfan
08-01-2012, 01:08 PM
I guess I still look at Parmelee as a prospect, and I'd add that he should be pretty high on this list if he is. He's 24 and putting up this line in AAA: .349/.468/.628/1.096

The one big reason why I was hoping that Span or Revere were traded was that it would open up RF for Parm to play every day. While I don't expect him to hit that well up here, this kid looks more and more like he could be a very solid, middle of the order bat.

alarp33
08-01-2012, 01:10 PM
I'm kind of curious where you are getting these numbers from... I never once saw any legit prospect person giving Buxton a single 80 much less two. I have seen several grade Sano at 80 power...

Kieth Law gave Buxton an 80 as a runner and 70 for arm (currently). He projects him as a future 70 fielder, 70 hitter, and 60 power

Jeremy Nygaard
08-01-2012, 01:23 PM
I guess I still look at Parmelee as a prospect, and I'd add that he should be pretty high on this list if he is. He's 24 and putting up this line in AAA: .349/.468/.628/1.096

The one big reason why I was hoping that Span or Revere were traded was that it would open up RF for Parm to play every day. While I don't expect him to hit that well up here, this kid looks more and more like he could be a very solid, middle of the order bat.

I like that Parmelee has cut down his K-rate. I didn't include him just because I don't think he'll be on the list in the winter and wanted to minimize graduations so that the names wouldn't change as much as the ranking... just my personal preference. I think his value is higher as a 1B, though, than a RF.

diehardtwinsfan
08-01-2012, 02:54 PM
I like that Parmelee has cut down his K-rate. I didn't include him just because I don't think he'll be on the list in the winter and wanted to minimize graduations so that the names wouldn't change as much as the ranking... just my personal preference. I think his value is higher as a 1B, though, than a RF.


I agree there, though to be quite honest, Parm isn't going anywhere until Morneau is gone. I see no problems with the Twins letting him keep RF warm next year until Morneau is traded and then call up one of the 3 nice OF prospects that they have.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-01-2012, 04:23 PM
Lots of good feedback...

VodkaDave: Hicks needs to show power. That's the missing tool. #3-6, really, though, aren't separated by much.



I would argue that Hicks has shown power. He already has 10 HR this year, and his isop (.168) is the highest it has been since the GCL.

I doubt he will ever be a threat to hit 30, but at this point with his age and steady improvement there is no reason why he can't be a 20 HR threat. That IMO is good enough for the "power" tool.

Sorry not trying to nitpick to closely as a 55/60 are almost the same thing. I just think Hicks at this point settles in as an average CF at worst with the ceiling to be a better version of Span OBP, SLG, HR, FLD and SB wise.

mlhouse
08-01-2012, 04:33 PM
Your rankings are incredibly optimistic. Of the players on the bottom half of your ratings, the odds of any of them reaching the majors in any capacity is limited at best. TO even have a 40 ranking is "Extreme".

mike wants wins
08-01-2012, 04:50 PM
I had hoped Morneau would be traded, so we could get a larger sample size on Parmalee this year. There are reasons to make trades beyond just what happens in that trade. Like last year (different sport alert), when the vikings continued to start a veteran RG, they knew they would cut (and who wasn't that good), instead of their rookie RG. sometimes, you need to see what you have, even if it costs you some games in an otherwise bad year. Plus I want the maximum amount of money available for FAs next year.

The top of this list is nice. I still think that they should consider dealing some OF (either MLB or MiLB) for some pitching. But, for some reason, prospect for prospect trades don't happen often. I am pretty optimistic about the future OF, with Sano at 1B or DH, and Kepler at 1B. I think they have a lot of arms that could be very good relief pitchers also. If they would let them slide into that role earlier, and promote them to the majors, they would have more money to buy FA types....

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-01-2012, 05:07 PM
I love the Minier inclusion since I forgot him on my list. Very good work Jeremy.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-01-2012, 05:11 PM
Never mind. I see reasons to why you did what you did. I do think Hauser may deserve an inclusion. Guiterrez, Thielbar, Tonkin, Hermsen, and Albers are too high. Minier and Mata are too low. I think Arcia should be "Low". You didn't give any prospects safe or low and I think Herrmann, Arcia, and Gibson would all be close to that.

Monkeypaws
08-01-2012, 05:18 PM
Plus, their top starter candidates above A ball have issues.

clutterheart
08-01-2012, 05:39 PM
Mata

Why is he so low? You think he will be in the bullpen? Id put him at a 55/high

Jeremy Nygaard
08-01-2012, 07:00 PM
VodkaDave- I'm not gonna argue with you about Hicks, all of your points are extremely valid. He could be an average-above average major league center fielder if he stays on the Hunter/Span course. One thing that stuck out to me was that he was projected to be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, but couldn't stick. His stuff can play as a leadoff guy, without a doubt, but if his hit/power tools both played up, he's a #3 hitter and that's even better.

mlhouse- The bottom have of the rankings are primarily guys ranked as having a CEILING as platoon or utility guys, not regulars. The risk is how likely they are to reach that ceiling, not how likely they are to make the majors. Reaching their ceiling of 45 means they might not even get a shot.

YHIMH- I would rank Revere as "safe". I would rank Parmelee, Dozier, Escobar as "low". What you see is essentially what you get. I think Arcia can get better yet. You don't see a lot of "safes" or "lows" league-wide because those prospect-types are getting a shot in the big leagues. We could argue the inclusion of relief pitchers completely. All of the Twins current bullpen came through (most of) the system as starters. I have Hermsen at his grade because I'm convinced he'll have a shot to show he's a 4/5 at the major league level. That's his ceiling, can he make it there?

clutter- Mata has one pitch right now so I think he'll be a bullpen guy. With one pitch, he can't be much more than a back-end guy. If one of his other pitches comes around, he moves up.

Mchans24
08-01-2012, 08:17 PM
Justin Morneau per injury was a much better player than Mauer IMHO! So he would be a 75 in my mind and Mauer is much more of a 65-70 player because he lacks power

Badsmerf
08-01-2012, 08:50 PM
So added flexibility adds to Herrmann's rating? I find that hard to swallow for a number of reasons. Why would he even play OF when the Twins should have much better options? His bat would profile as well below average. I just don't see the love is all.

My view of Hick's ceiling is Grady Sizemore, with a little less HR's. Thats why I'd rank him higher I guess.

Not too bad I guess. I'm excited to do a top 40 list on this site, since I think there would be much more participation. We start from the top, vote on it, then add one player to the pool of players and vote on the next spot down. Its an awesome winter killer. I wonder if RP will upload our previous lists to share with everyone here.