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View Full Version : Mackey: Good Chance Twins Are Punting 2013



John Bonnes
07-31-2012, 11:12 PM
http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Twins_GM_Terry_Ryan_not_banking_on_free_age ncy_this_winter073112

Phil Mackey quotes Terry Ryan, examines the payroll commitments and concludes....


But if Ryan holds true to his words and decides against jumping into the free agent starting pitching pool this winter, there's a good chance the Twins are effectively punting the 2013 season.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-31-2012, 11:17 PM
I think he/people are reading to much into it.

Ryan is correct, you can't just fix a club by throwing a ton of money in free agency, you have to be smart with the contracts you sign out. Hopefully he can find the Willingham of pitchers on the market and can trade Span or someone for another pitcher.

Bark's Lounge
07-31-2012, 11:20 PM
Terry Ryan the Politician... yuck.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-31-2012, 11:23 PM
"I'm not banking on free agency, to be honest. If you keep banking on free agency, you'll end up chasing your tail. This is not going to be a free agency approach. This is going to be no shortcuts and doing the job the way it's supposed to be done. And that's usually that's with young, development, scouting and picking the right people."

Later in the article it says they should have 15-20 million to spend, so its not exactly like he won't pick up some players via Free Agency, he is just (correctly) stating the Twins need to improve in all aspects of the org. Sounds correct to me.

TheLeviathan
07-31-2012, 11:25 PM
Ryan spending 15-20M and these comments makes me think we'll be targeting three Rondell White's.

World Series baby. (Sorry, hard not to be a pessimist after reading this)

John Bonnes
07-31-2012, 11:27 PM
Later in the article it says they should have 15-20 million to spend, so its not exactly like he won't pick up some players via Free Agency, he is just (correctly) stating the Twins need to improve in all aspects of the org. Sounds correct to me.

Just to clarify, that is Mackey's guess.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-31-2012, 11:33 PM
Just to clarify, that is Mackey's guess.

True, at this point its not worth getting worried about. Let's see what he has to work with this off-season, what trades happen and what free agents he is able to bring in.

He did a hell of a job last off-season with a limited budget in bringing in Willingham and Doumit. Hopefully he can bring in similar (just SP) this off-season.

It also seems like he is acknowledging there are holes in the lineup, $100 says he is talking about 2B/SS, hopefully they can address the MI as well somehow.

Bark's Lounge
07-31-2012, 11:34 PM
Just to clarify, that is Mackey's guess.

We read the article - Nobody is blaming you. It's just baseball for cripes sake.:)

greengoblinrulz
07-31-2012, 11:41 PM
The conservative Ryan is banking on players he hasnt even drafted yet........

Bark's Lounge
07-31-2012, 11:43 PM
True, at this point its not worth getting worried about. Let's see what he has to work with this off-season, what trades happen and what free agents he is able to bring in.

He did a hell of a job last off-season with a limited budget in bringing in Willingham and Doumit. Hopefully he can bring in similar (just SP) this off-season.

It also seems like he is acknowledging there are holes in the lineup, $100 says he is talking about 2B/SS, hopefully they can address the MI as well somehow.

Let's just keep that low end, poopy FA pitcher out of the mix (No more Marquis types). I'd rather they bring up some yahoo from AA... and for the Twins that would really suck - but in my estimation would be a better option... fiscally and developmentally, while pissing off the fan base less (maybe).

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-31-2012, 11:51 PM
Let's just keep that low end, poopy FA pitcher out of the mix (No more Marquis types). I'd rather they bring up some yahoo from AA... and for the Twins that would really suck - but in my estimation would be a better option... fiscally and developmentally, while pissing off the fan base less (maybe).

Yeah, well if Blackburn can somehow prove to be effective again that would greatly lessen the need to goto FA for some veteran #5 (Livan, Ortiz, Marquis, etc etc) to fill out the rotation.


1?
2?
3. Diamond
4. Gibson
5. Hendriks/Blackburn/DeDuno/DeVries

If that is the case he hopefully we focus on finding a #2 (I doubt we land a #1), someone like Edwin Jackson, Sanchez, Marcum would be decent targets and clear upgrades.

Actually the more I think about it, there is actually zero reason to even attempt to bring in a Marquis/Livan type. The Twins have enough warm bodies currently under team control (DeDuno, Blackburn, DeVries, Walters) where they shouldn't worry to much about filling out the back end of the rotation.

Let's assume they have 20 mil to spend (25 if they trade Span, 30 mil if they cut Alexi and trade Caroll as well)
Id want them to budget 75% of that to find front of the rotation type guys. (15-23 mil) Anything left over can be used to bring in a MI (trade Carroll, Cut Alexi), another RP if nesc and perhaps a bat off the bench, (or a stop gap RF if they trade Span)

COtwin
08-01-2012, 12:15 AM
I agree. We either news to be players in FA 2 quality SP. Or. We need to make some offseason trades and hasten the rebuilding. The problem is the FO can't decide which way to go. But at this point all of us would rather watch some young guys try to figure it out and post a crappy record than watch a bunch of guys in their prime waste a season because the moves that were made were marginal at best and failed. For every first twins year pavano this FO has a Logan Hernandez, Sydney ponson, pavano third year, Jason marquis, etc. These low risk low reward guys are actually adding up to high risk cause the season ends up sunk.

COtwin
08-01-2012, 12:16 AM
I know it's livan. Stupid spell check.

kab21
08-01-2012, 01:09 AM
I think it's nothing more than Ryan being realistic about the chances of landing a good SP'er in FA. There are probably only 6 or so out there and over half of the MLB teams are going to be competing for them. It's not hard to do the math that some (most) of the teams will miss out on landing a good FA starter. And those that land the good starter will have to pay the big bucks and get stuck with an early 30's SP'er on a big 5 year contract (Buehrle and CJ Wilson for example) that is not going to end well. Everyone here thinks that the Blackburn contract hurts payroll but that is nothing compared to having 15M tied up in Lowe, burnett, lackey, or any of the many non-elite arms that signed big contracts in their 30's.

JB_Iowa
08-01-2012, 08:27 AM
I fully expect the Dave St. Peter spin machine to go into full effect now.

I also found this statement fascinating: "We had all kinds of money this year and we didn't get it done."

Ryan anticipating a significant decrease next year ? Or is it just that Ryan LIKES being the "little engine that could" -- not appreciating that fans' expectations have changed significantly with TF?

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-01-2012, 08:42 AM
I think it's nothing more than Ryan being realistic about the chances of landing a good SP'er in FA. There are probably only 6 or so out there and over half of the MLB teams are going to be competing for them. It's not hard to do the math that some (most) of the teams will miss out on landing a good FA starter. And those that land the good starter will have to pay the big bucks and get stuck with an early 30's SP'er on a big 5 year contract (Buehrle and CJ Wilson for example) that is not going to end well. Everyone here thinks that the Blackburn contract hurts payroll but that is nothing compared to having 15M tied up in Lowe, burnett, lackey, or any of the many non-elite arms that signed big contracts in their 30's.

That is a really good point.
Guys like Sanchez, Jackson, Marcum all look good on paper, but if you have to give them 3 years/42 million or so it could eventually kill your club moving forward.

Thrylos
08-01-2012, 08:56 AM
I think it does not require crystal balls to see that the Twins will not be players on the top level starting pitching free agents next off-season. These guys would require $12-20M/yr contracts for multiple seasons. And I think that the Twins are smart enough not to do that. That is that. If one of them falls through the cracks (like Edwin Jackson did last season and they passed) and can be signed with an one year contract, they should pounce. Hopefully no more Marquis/Livan/Ponson and other "veteran presence" moves... I seriously rather have them stay put and have Hendriks or some other kid and Deduno rather than have them pay $5M a year to someone like Marquis.

That said, this off-season they should really start thinking about trading from strength (OF) to get some SP. I see no reason for them not to do that.

Boom Boom
08-01-2012, 09:07 AM
Eventually, in order to fix this rotation, the Twins will either need to sign a good pitcher to a free agent contract, or pull the trigger on a trade. Or both. The "next wave" of Twins starters is not currently in the system.

I think there are many Twins fans who are frustrated not only with the poor play the last two years but also the glacial pace the Twins are on to try and fix it. TR saying these kinds of things isn't going to help season ticket sales.

Badsmerf
08-01-2012, 09:19 AM
To get elite starting pitching, eventually you'll have to pay for it. This team isn't on a ****ing 60 million dollar budget like you guys think. They have 100 million to spend. If they EVER want to compete, they have to get good starting pitchers that aren't just rookies coming up through the system. The thought that they shouldn't put up money for it is like chasing your tail. Put your money into a guy you're confident that can stay healthy and pitch at a high level (like Hamels). I wont have any expectations for this team until they get an elite pitcher. They might be able to compete in the central, but nothing past that. Get over the little guy syndrome already.

John Bonnes
08-01-2012, 09:19 AM
I think Ryan's point is that they're never going to just buy their way out of the basement; that building a winning organization requires lots of things besides money.

But I think it also reinforces something that we could have guessed - the Twins aren't going to go hog wild in the free agent market this offseason. They never have before and I don't know why we would expect them to now.

I just hope it doesn't mean they will be further slashing payroll, or not take advantage of what is going to be a crazy deep pitching free agent class.

Brock Beauchamp
08-01-2012, 09:22 AM
I just hope it doesn't mean they will be further slashing payroll, or not take advantage of what is going to be a crazy deep pitching free agent class.

I will be happy if they leave the offseason with one Sanchez/Jackson-type pitcher. Anything less than that is a failure, in my opinion.*

*barring every decent pitcher in this FA class getting crazy-stupid money like $15m+ a year. In that case, pass.

crarko
08-01-2012, 10:16 AM
Or they may pursue free agent pitchers Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, and Francisco Liriano. :rolleyes:

Badsmerf
08-01-2012, 10:24 AM
Or they may pursue free agent pitchers Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, and Francisco Liriano. :rolleyes:

My opinion is that Baker is back on an incentive type deal with a club option. Makes too much sense for both parties.

kab21
08-01-2012, 10:28 AM
To get elite starting pitching, eventually you'll have to pay for it. This team isn't on a ****ing 60 million dollar budget like you guys think. They have 100 million to spend. If they EVER want to compete, they have to get good starting pitchers that aren't just rookies coming up through the system. The thought that they shouldn't put up money for it is like chasing your tail. Put your money into a guy you're confident that can stay healthy and pitch at a high level (like Hamels). I wont have any expectations for this team until they get an elite pitcher. They might be able to compete in the central, but nothing past that. Get over the little guy syndrome already.

So you think the best time to eventually pay for it is when you are coming off of consecutive 90 loss seasons?

Top Gun
08-01-2012, 10:38 AM
You won't get any of the 3 for less than 15m and will probably take a 4 year deal to do that, Price of pitching is going up!

DPJ
08-01-2012, 10:53 AM
Get your 2013 twins season tickets now!!!

TRex
08-01-2012, 11:48 AM
I think people forget you can acquire a top-end starting pitcher without going the FA route (i.e. via trade like Cincy dealing for Mat Latos last year). In addition, the 'future aces' in their 4th or 5th year are usually cheaper with less wear on their arms. I would imagine most clubs would at least listen if the offer started with Miguel Sano, so if we could identify a similar future ace with at least 2 years of team control, would you be willing to deal 3 top-15 prospects, including Sano, for him?

kab21
08-01-2012, 12:08 PM
I think people forget you can acquire a top-end starting pitcher without going the FA route (i.e. via trade like Cincy dealing for Mat Latos last year). In addition, the 'future aces' in their 4th or 5th year are usually cheaper with less wear on their arms. I would imagine most clubs would at least listen if the offer started with Miguel Sano, so if we could identify a similar future ace with at least 2 years of team control, would you be willing to deal 3 top-15 prospects, including Sano, for him?

For next season: no chance. 2 years ago: yes and I suggested it on BYTO. This team is not a Mat Latos away despite what some think.

Top Gun
08-01-2012, 12:22 PM
I would give up at lest a couple top prospects for someone in his 1st or 2nd year if I thaught he was good.

Badsmerf
08-01-2012, 12:23 PM
So you think the best time to eventually pay for it is when you are coming off of consecutive 90 loss seasons?

Maybe. Depends on how the rest of the year plays out. In order for me to say yes these things have to happen: Plouffe's break-out is legit (follows up with a strong ending to the year), Gibson looks like he could be ready to start the year in MN (being ready and actually starting are different), Blackburn turns his season around, Baker doesn't have set-backs, Hendriks figures it out (biggest question mark), Morneau being healthy, and one of the young OF is ready for a full time role. If all these things happen, which isn't that crazy, I say yes. With Hendriks and Gibson you will add 2 guys instantly that can be at least league average, maybe better. Not much should be expected of Baker, but league average isn't crazy. I know it wont happen, but add Grienke and this team would be pretty good. Playoff team with pieces to trade to get another elite pitcher if wanted. I just don't like the notion of thinking it is impossible for this team to put up big money for a pitcher, when pitching wins games.

Thrylos
08-01-2012, 12:30 PM
My opinion is that Baker is back on an incentive type deal with a club option. Makes too much sense for both parties.

Might make sense for the Twins but might not make sense for Baker.

diehardtwinsfan
08-01-2012, 12:53 PM
Baker has enough success that I wouldn't be surprised if a team threw a 3 year deal at him with a lower first season and a nice payout years 2 and 3... I wouldn't be surprised if that team was Minnesota, but I do hope that resigning Baker is not the only option the Twins plan to explore this year.

Nick Nelson
08-01-2012, 01:30 PM
No one's giving a three-year deal to a guy coming off TJ surgery. That simply doesn't happen. Especially considering that Baker was never that durable to begin with.

Brock Beauchamp
08-01-2012, 01:40 PM
Baker will get a one year, incentive laden deal just like almost every other pitcher who loses a season to injury.

mike wants wins
08-01-2012, 01:52 PM
I would pretty much stop caring if they punt. I would also stop coming here as much, as the koolaid camp vs the negative camp would just get too ugly to enjoy, as people will move to the extremes.....

Winston Smith
08-01-2012, 02:07 PM
I would doubt Baker even gets an offer until next spring/early summer when he can prove he can pitch again. He likely won't be ready to pitch until June.

There isn't the extra draft picks a team could get in the past. Not having all those extra picks like we had this year means that they better be good because you have less chances. That comes back to the scouts and player evaluation guys, they are the same guys that said Nishi was the real deal, they said Ramos wasn't considered a top prospect anymore (a direct quote from Ryan after that trade). So yes Smith did a poor job but the guys providing the info are the same with the same guy in charge of drafting. Ryan has a scout background so he may do his own work unlike Smith but the real change is the talking head is now Ryan and not Smith. Not exactly a purge of the org.

Erock
08-01-2012, 02:32 PM
The Twins aren't going to splash in free agency this year, but that doesn't mean they aren't going to sign people to the rotation, but if all of the Jackson, Marcum, Sanchez, McCarthy types demand too much money than I imagine the Twins will settle for Scott Baker, Joe Blanton, Jeremy Guthrie and god knows who to try and put something together.

Nick Nelson
08-01-2012, 02:37 PM
In this division, and with this core, I think outright "punting" the 2013 season would be a big mistake and I doubt that is truly Ryan's intention. The last time the Twins "punted" a season was 2008, when they gave up Santana, Garza and Hunter, then came within a game of making the playoffs.

Every move should be made with the organization's long-term health in mind, but that's not mutually exclusive from putting a competitive product on the field next year.

jokin
08-01-2012, 02:39 PM
In this division, and with this core, I think outright "punting" the 2013 season would be a big mistake and I doubt that is truly Ryan's intention. The last time the Twins "punted" a season was 2008, when they gave up Santana, Garza and Hunter, then came within a game of making the playoffs.

Every move should be made with the organization's long-term health in mind, but that's not mutually exclusive from putting a competitive product on the field next year.

"Mutually exclusive"?....sounds more like "caught in the middle of a Catch-22" situation.

fatbeer
08-01-2012, 04:35 PM
When you need pitching free agency is not much of an option, if somehow Diamond keeps his success up next year and we develop 1 more we might be alright.

Highabove
08-01-2012, 04:40 PM
A large number of Season Ticket Holders will be punting too.

Jim Crikket
08-01-2012, 04:47 PM
Might make sense for the Twins but might not make sense for Baker.

I was thinking the same thing. Especially if Baker and his agent believe the Twins medical staff has been less than spectacular with regard to addressing his injury(ies). He may not want to trust what's left of his career to the same staff. Not to mention, he (like every other player his age) may prefer to see if he can hook on to an organization more committed to competing within the next year or two.

Highabove
08-01-2012, 04:55 PM
2013 Free Agents *= Currant Team has an option

Starting Pitchers
Scott Baker *
Joe Blanton
Matt Cain
Fausto Carmona *
Kevin Correia
Jorge De La Rosa *
R.A. Dickey *
Scott Feldman *
Gavin Floyd *
Zack Greinke
Jeremy Guthrie
Cole Hamels
Dan Haren *
Tim Hudson *
Colby Lewis
Francisco Liriano
Kyle Lohse
Derek Lowe
Shaun Marcum
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Brandon McCarthy
Brett Myers *
Carl Pavano
Jake Peavy *
Anibal Sanchez
Jonathan Sanchez
Ervin Santana *
Joe Saunders
James Shields *
Jake Westbrook *
Randy Wolf *
Carlos Zambrano *

Nick Nelson
08-01-2012, 05:16 PM
"Mutually exclusive"?....sounds more like "caught in the middle of a Catch-22" situation.

In what way is it a Catch-22? You sign one legit mid-tier free agent (a Marcum or Blanton type), you maybe gamble on one or two other risk/reward plays (Baker, Matsuzaka, Carmona - er, Hernandez), trade Span or Morneau for an arm, and you hope Diamond can keep it rolling and Blackburn is usable. If Gibson or Hendriks are able to give you something, all the better.

There are ways to envision a decent rotation here next year without requiring a huge free agent spending spree, which is why I feel that Mackey's conclusion was a bit of a stretch.

JB_Iowa
08-01-2012, 06:10 PM
They can't afford to punt. But they are in a bit of a tough spot on the timing.

They have to somehow convince season ticket holders that they will be "competitive" next year (or at least respectable) but most of their moves probably can't/won't be made until after the date by which they normally ask season ticket holders to make those decisions.

It puts ticketholders in a bad spot as well.

I really look for a giant spin machine -- and a number of promotions for season ticketholders -- to try to drive that traffic early.

Then I think they will budget in the range of $90 million (maybe a little more). So assuming that the $76 million estimate is right on current players that probably leaves about $24 million (or thereabouts) for whatever additions they may make.

As Nick said, certainly enough to sign one mid-tier free agent pitcher (look for them to overpay a little to reduce the length to 2 years if possible and no more than 3); plus a higher risk/higher reward plus "tinkering" money to fill some other holes.

Overall, it leaves me pretty blah -- but then I've been calling for them to remake this team since October 2010 (despite the 94 wins).

edavis0308
08-01-2012, 06:33 PM
I kind of hope they would go for someone like McCarthy, but the dude is ALWAYS injured.

Nick Nelson
08-01-2012, 07:29 PM
As Nick said, certainly enough to sign one mid-tier free agent pitcher (look for them to overpay a little to reduce the length to 2 years if possible and no more than 3); plus a higher risk/higher reward plus "tinkering" money to fill some other holes.

Plus, if they can trade Span or Morneau (eating half his salary or so) then their commitments for next year lower to ~$70M. Assuming they're serious about keeping payroll around $100M, that'd give them close to $30 million to spend on starting pitching and (if Span's dealt) a right fielder. I really don't know what other needs they have. Maybe another reliever.

snepp
08-01-2012, 07:36 PM
I really don't know what other needs they have.

Other than the embarrassment of riches they have in the middle infield? :)

mike wants wins
08-01-2012, 07:53 PM
JB, that leaves $14MM, not $24....

Nick Nelson
08-01-2012, 07:59 PM
Other than the embarrassment of riches they have in the middle infield? :)

Obviously not ideal, but I think they can survive with some alignment of Carroll/Escobar/Dozier up the middle. They've had one of the best offenses in the league since May despite no production from second or short.

jorgenswest
08-01-2012, 08:04 PM
There are three roads.

1) Punt 2013
2) Go for it in 2013
3) Try to be competitive in 2013

They aren't punting. To do so would require trading off aging assets. You trade Willingham if you are punting. You don't sign Doumit. You start investing playing time in Parmelee.

Are they going for it? We will see. Hard to imagine they will increase the budget in order to buy a pitching staff that can contend.

My fear is that they will do neither. They will sign some decline phase players to fill holes and hope to hang around .500 long enough to give the impression of being competitive. In the end, they will enter 2014 with an aging roster following a 75-85 win season.

Badsmerf
08-01-2012, 08:17 PM
There are three roads.

1) Punt 2013
2) Go for it in 2013
3) Try to be competitive in 2013

They aren't punting. To do so would require trading off aging assets. You trade Willingham if you are punting. You don't sign Doumit. You start investing playing time in Parmelee.

Are they going for it? We will see. Hard to imagine they will increase the budget in order to buy a pitching staff that can contend.

My fear is that they will do neither. They will sign some decline phase players to fill holes and hope to hang around .500 long enough to give the impression of being competitive. In the end, they will enter 2014 with an aging roster following a 75-85 win season.

Paradox. Only 3 roads to choose from and the Twins choose the 4th: mediocrity. RP, can you bring back the mediocre thread from BYTO? Classic meltdown.

Highabove
08-01-2012, 08:35 PM
http://www.idealog.co.nz/images/issues/9/road-to-nowhere-spread.jpg

JB_Iowa
08-01-2012, 09:10 PM
JB, that leaves $14MM, not $24....

Good grief .... take me back to basic math, please.

BD57
08-01-2012, 10:04 PM
Can't solve this problem with one big FA starting pitcher (IMO), which makes it unlikely that Ryan will want to go that route - chews up too much money on a roster with too many other holes.

We're more competitive with the starting 8 this year than last - which isn't hard to do - but we're not "contender class" there yet (IMO). What we'd need (a) Mauer stays healthy and productive; (b) Willingham continues to produce; (c) Morneau returns to pre-concussion form; (d) Plouffe proves he can do it consistently; (e) middle infield becomes more useful offensively.

Biggest issue is starting rotation. We don't have reason to be comfortable with any of them - getting more so with Diamond, start by start, but I want to see more.

IMO, the plan is to rebuild the farm system & use FA to add complimentary / "last" pieces. We aren't close to needing "last pieces" yet.

johnnydakota
08-01-2012, 10:21 PM
jim pohlad.......if the wheels arnt falling off the brinks truck he wont fix anything that reqiures time or money.....

drjim
08-01-2012, 10:39 PM
That is a not a deep class of free agent starting pitchers.

If they sign one decent guy, trade an OF for another and take a flier or two that would be a success.

drjim
08-01-2012, 10:41 PM
I just hope it doesn't mean they will be further slashing payroll, or not take advantage of what is going to be a crazy deep pitching free agent class.

Crazy deep pitching free agent class? Please expound on that point.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-01-2012, 10:58 PM
Crazy deep pitching free agent class? Please expound on that point.
Yeah I am a bit curious on that as well.
If anything it looks like a solid but not great pitching class, also I'd wager there is a damn good chance that Sanchez never sees the Free Agent market (from what I have been told), and wouldn't be shocked if Grienke didn't see it as well.

SpiritofVodkaDave
08-01-2012, 11:04 PM
Obviously not ideal, but I think they can survive with some alignment of Carroll/Escobar/Dozier up the middle. They've had one of the best offenses in the league since May despite no production from second or short.

There is also the long shot that Nishioka could contribute as well, and a guy like Mastrionni could potentially play some 2B as well.

You can live with a couple crappy bats in the lineup as long as the other 7 are solid. People seem to forget the Twins won multiple division titles with guys like Punto, Tolbert, Castro, Bautista, etc getting a ton of at bats.

Plus we could probably got out and get a guy like Kelly Johnson to handle 2B who would be rather affordable if we needed to.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
08-01-2012, 11:14 PM
Why should we sign starting pitchers?
1. Diamond
2. Devries
3. Walters
4. Deduno
5. Blackburn

Looks good to me. Lots of sexy names already.

Kobs
08-01-2012, 11:23 PM
You can live with a couple crappy bats in the lineup as long as the other 7 are solid. People seem to forget the Twins won multiple division titles with guys like Punto, Tolbert, Castro, Bautista, etc getting a ton of at bats.

Nobody forgets that, it's just irrelevant. Those teams could pitch.

Regardless, going into the season with two nearly guaranteed black holes as your best options at two positions exaggerates the likely reduced production of guys at other positions who are having upper limit seasons, especially Plouffe and Willingham. This lineup will quickly become one with three or four holes.

jokin
08-01-2012, 11:26 PM
In what way is it a Catch-22? You sign one legit mid-tier free agent (a Marcum or Blanton type), you maybe gamble on one or two other risk/reward plays (Baker, Matsuzaka, Carmona - er, Hernandez), trade Span or Morneau for an arm, and you hope Diamond can keep it rolling and Blackburn is usable. If Gibson or Hendriks are able to give you something, all the better.

There are ways to envision a decent rotation here next year without requiring a huge free agent spending spree, which is why I feel that Mackey's conclusion was a bit of a stretch.

Huh? Just 2 posts later you envision the possibility of $30M available to spend on FA pitchers. There are still a lot of hopes and ifs and gambles in your scenario to think there are high chances for success.

Meanwhile, the Twins are caught in a Catch-22 position that invariably ends up badly- trying to be all things to all fans. If they go all-in and try to "reload" to remain competitive, their lip to service to "staying competitive" may mollify the ticket base for the short-term, but the self-imposed salary cap, the dearth of pitching and positional help on the farm, along with the existing anchor-contracts, severely limits any chances for short-term success. And, as a result, it actually ends up hurting the team in the long-term, ultimately disaffecting those same ticket buyers anyway. Going the other route, full-rebuild-now, would be a PR disaster for a team in a new park, an admission that the "master plan the Twins way" was a failure, with basically few ready, or even intriguing options to place on the field in 2013 from AA and AAA. Did you see who the Rangers just called up from AA to play 3B? Mike Olt, batting nearly .300, with 27 HRs. The Twins called back Valencia. Nuff said. Can you name anyone dynamic or interesting enough to be of immediate help this season or next in the Twins system?

jokin
08-01-2012, 11:39 PM
There is also the long shot that Nishioka could contribute as well, and a guy like Mastrionni could potentially play some 2B as well.

You can live with a couple crappy bats in the lineup as long as the other 7 are solid. People seem to forget the Twins won multiple division titles with guys like Punto, Tolbert, Castro, Bautista, etc getting a ton of at bats.

Plus we could probably got out and get a guy like Kelly Johnson to handle 2B who would be rather affordable if we needed to.

Nishi has to be the longest of long-shots, I sincerely doubt that Gardy's cardiologist would allow Nishi back in a Twins uniform. The Twins business plan for years on end has been having no-pop baseball serfs in the MI (and sometimes even at 3B). They just traded for the next serf in line for UIF in a nifty deal for their best arm. They couldn't get rid of Hardy fast enough when the propsect of an unproven, low-cost, no-talent RP was dangled before them.

On a more serious note, I am intrigued in taking a look at Mastroianni and Plouffe at 2B- and even Ben Revere for a couple years if the Twins opt to retain Span through the life of his contract.

CDog
08-01-2012, 11:49 PM
Every move should be made with the organization's long-term health in mind, but that's not mutually exclusive from putting a competitive product on the field next year.

I've had that thought in some form or another a lot over the last couple of weeks, but never that succinctly. Well said.

Wolfy
08-02-2012, 06:55 AM
Ryan has shown that he just isn't adept at the "flyer" approach to FA. Guys like Carrol, Willingham, and Doumit don't fit into that description. Nishi and Zumaya certainly do.

When he gets the wild hair to do something out of the box like that again, someone should grab the phone from his hand and shuffle him out to the golf course so he can clear his head.

drjim
08-02-2012, 03:15 PM
Ryan has shown that he just isn't adept at the "flyer" approach to FA. Guys like Carrol, Willingham, and Doumit don't fit into that description. Nishi and Zumaya certainly do.

When he gets the wild hair to do something out of the box like that again, someone should grab the phone from his hand and shuffle him out to the golf course so he can clear his head.

Burton?

And Terry Ryan had nothing to do with Nishi. I still think Zumaya was an acceptable risk.

diehardtwinsfan
08-02-2012, 03:26 PM
guys like Zumaya are an exceptable risk... I seem to remember a lot of clamoring on BYTO about getting Erik Bedard and Rich Harden. Harden went the Zumaya route. Bedard signed for a little more than Marquis and has turned out to be a great get for the Pirates.

drjim
08-02-2012, 03:43 PM
guys like Zumaya are an exceptable risk... I seem to remember a lot of clamoring on BYTO about getting Erik Bedard and Rich Harden. Harden went the Zumaya route. Bedard signed for a little more than Marquis and has turned out to be a great get for the Pirates.

Great get might be a stretch. He barely averages 5 ip a start and has an era a little under 5 in the NL. Marquis has actually put up better numbers with SD than Bedard has with Pit.

Brock Beauchamp
08-02-2012, 04:05 PM
guys like Zumaya are an exceptable risk... I seem to remember a lot of clamoring on BYTO about getting Erik Bedard and Rich Harden. Harden went the Zumaya route. Bedard signed for a little more than Marquis and has turned out to be a great get for the Pirates.

I said it before the season: Zumaya was a great move if TR went out and got somebody else as a back-up plan. He didn't. Luckily, Burton stepped up but relying on Zumaya to fix the pen was just asinine.