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Nick Nelson
07-30-2012, 01:05 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?856-Hard-Truths

Top Gun
07-30-2012, 02:04 AM
The hard truth is that he is a knuckle head, run him out of town!

tobynotjason
07-30-2012, 02:14 AM
So GUESSING that a better offer won't materialize after a guy whose stuff per pitch f/x is unequivocally, demonstrably, objectively TOTALLY DIFFERENT than it was in 2011 and early 2012 (and actually even better than 2010) makes another start is OK, because, y'know, "he didn't expect better[offers] to come by Tuesday".

Just: no. The F.O. is toast. At least Liriano, of whom I'm a much bigger fan at this point than the Twins Org., writ large, will get a chance to work with a real pitching coach.

Tuba
07-30-2012, 02:43 AM
I remember when he was put in the bullpen a few months ago and everyone here was saddened because we all knew frankie would work it out. Absolutely no one called for him to be released or anything like that. We all stood by him because we believed in him.

So to lose him for two mediocre at best players is truly heartbreaking for all of us that had faith in Liriano through thick and thin. Because absolutely none of us called for him to be demoted, even at 0-5 with a 9.45 era. We all knew he had it in him.

So long Francisco Liriano y Casillas, I shall shed tears for thee

USAFChief
07-30-2012, 05:29 AM
This trade will not be viewed favorably in the future. A team this desparate for starting pitching should not be so cavalier about dumping the best arm in it's system.

one_eyed_jack
07-30-2012, 07:09 AM
Agree with everything you've said here, Nick.

I continue to be perplexed by the number of people who are so convinced that we could have gotten so much more for him. They seem to be valuing him based solely on his upside while ignoring his downside, but even the dumbest of MLB front offices is smart enough not to do that.

And when it comes to a guy at his age with his experience, you can't be talking about "potential" anymore. He is what he is. A guy who ranges from brilliant to brutal, both between and within starts.

I don't see why anyone would think that teams would be lining up to offer their best prospects for a 2-month rental of such a player. It defies logic.

Time will tell how this trade plays out. Maybe the Whities are right and they can teach Frankie some new tricks. Maybe he helps them and they even bring him back.

But maybe the Whities see bad Frankie, miss the postseason and he walks at the end of the year while one of these guys ends up helping the Twins, and the fans on the Southside start demanding to know what the hell their management was thinking when they made this deal.

We shall see.

spideyo
07-30-2012, 07:17 AM
Truth is too, that we have about as good a chance re-signing him in the offseason as we would if we hadn't traded him. If he manages to stay in "Ace" mode the rest of the season, he is not gonna just resign with the Sox, he's gonna wanna test the waters, same as he would if he was here.

We COULD make a run at him, and then the net result would be we only lose him for two months for two young guys. If he signs a big deal elsewhere, well, he probably would have gotten that deal leaving the Twins too, which means we would have lost him for nothing.

We all know how much we love when our top guys leave in FA and we get jack squat in return

IdahoPilgrim
07-30-2012, 07:42 AM
The find I find amazing is the short attention span of most fans, even knowledgeable fans. Last May, this is exactly what fans were clamoring for - a run of good starts so the Twins could get something, ANYTHING, for him before he imploded again. Nobody was talking about offering him an extension or calling him the best arm in the system (which he is on his good days). There were even some who said we should just DFA him and be done with it. I'm OK with this trade - I would have liked more, but it wasn't to be.

I do think, given their contracts, that more needs to be expected for Span, Willingham or Morneau - they won't go for this level of return. If that's all that Ryan is offered for one of them, just say no and keep them.

JB_Iowa
07-30-2012, 07:52 AM
The question that nags at me isn't about what the Twins got from him in the trade -- it's about what the Twins got from him while he was with the team.

Did they get the best from him? Are they getting the best from the other players they have?

I guess we'll see what Frankie does with the Sox.

mike wants wins
07-30-2012, 08:05 AM
So it proves that if you want to get good players in trades, you need to trade good players, and also not wait until they are only 3 month rentals. The question is, has Ryan come to the same conclusion?

Winston Smith
07-30-2012, 08:31 AM
Unless you are a fan that thinks a couple more wins we'll be back in the race, there is little reason to be upset. If you are one of those fans you need help! We got something for him rather than see him leave after the season and get nothing. It is not in Ryan's dna to spend big money on free agents so thinking Liriano would sign a long term deal to stay is silly. Now could he come back when he finds no market for his good, bad and sometimes ugly pitching, sure but why would we want that. We have a bad team, it has been a bad team for over a year and thinking that a bad team has a lot of great players worth a small fortune doesn't make sense. Trade anything worth talent in return, every player on this team can be replaced and lets rebuild a team not for competeing in the central but a team worth watching come playoff time. Of course do it on the cheap!

minn55441
07-30-2012, 08:32 AM
So it proves that if you want to get good players in trades, you need to trade good players, and also not wait until they are only 3 month rentals. The question is, has Ryan come to the same conclusion?

Another nice recap Nick.

Mike has summed it up correctly. If you want good players you need to offer good players. This is what the market brought for Frankie.

I'm sure we will all be watching Liriano for the rest of the season and somehow try and draw conclusions from his performances into evaluating this trade. If he does well, does that reflect badly on Rick Anderson and the Twins coaching staff and how they handled him? If he pitches poorly will that mean that TR played it well and at least got some thing for him? I have a feeling we will land somewhere in between. He will pitch great at times and implode during other outings, just like he did for us. That may be good enough for the Sox. It didn't work for us, we are at a point where we need consistent starts and at this point in his career, Liriano is anything but a consistent pitcher.


Good Luck to Frankie, I hope he finds that groove and fulfills his potential down the road, I just hope it isn't as White Sox.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 08:45 AM
Of course he would have preferred to pry away younger prospects with higher ceilings

Rywan said he wanted pitchers in the high minors who are "ready to go."

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-30-2012, 08:46 AM
This trade will not be viewed favorably in the future. A team this desparate for starting pitching should not be so cavalier about dumping the best arm in it's system.
Most "live" arm yes, best arm? Not so sure. Moving forward I'd say there is a at least a 50% chance that Hendriks, Diamond and Gibson all outpitch Liriano, and most importanly will cost millions of dollars cheaper.

I wanted Liriano to stick around as well, and maybe if he preforms "meh" for the White Sox (4.00-4.50 ERA) down the stretch perhaps we can get him back on a cheap 1 year or 2 year deal. But the Twins decided enough was enough at this point with Liriano and they made the move, sometimes you just gotta move on, just like the Delmon trade last year.

DPJ
07-30-2012, 08:46 AM
Rywan said he wanted pitchers in the high minors who are "ready to go."

HUH? Where did you hear that? I heard Ryan say he wanted high ceiling, no matter how far away they were to the majors.

USAFChief
07-30-2012, 08:59 AM
The find I find amazing is the short attention span of most fans, even knowledgeable fans. Last May, this is exactly what fans were clamoring for - a run of good starts so the Twins could get something, ANYTHING, for him before he imploded again. Nobody was talking about offering him an extension or calling him the best arm in the system (which he is on his good days). There were even some who said we should just DFA him and be done with it. I'm OK with this trade - I would have liked more, but it wasn't to be.

I do think, given their contracts, that more needs to be expected for Span, Willingham or Morneau - they won't go for this level of return. If that's all that Ryan is offered for one of them, just say no and keep them.
For the record, i object to the term "nobody."

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-30-2012, 09:00 AM
For the record, i object to the term "nobody."

+1. I was with you the whole way, if anything I thought they should have tried to lock him up in the off-season.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 09:07 AM
HUH? Where did you hear that? I heard Ryan say he wanted high ceiling, no matter how far away they were to the majors.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8198815/latest-deadline-dealings-marlins-phillies-dodgers-more

TheLeviathan
07-30-2012, 09:11 AM
What this deal indicates is that "nobody" in their right mind really can think Liriano is a "frontline" anything.

I have minimal hope for this deal panning out and I'm not a fan of the value they got, but what they got is exactly what one should expect for what Frankie ACTUALLY is. Not what we all fondly remember him to be.

It's funny to talk with Sox fans in my family, they almost all have the same answer to two questions: How do you feel about Frankie and how do you feel about what you gave up?

Answer: Meh. Couldn't agree more.

jimbo92107
07-30-2012, 09:28 AM
I'm a little curious about Pedro Hernandez. Is he rated as high as Samuel Deduno?

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-30-2012, 09:34 AM
I'm a little curious about Pedro Hernandez. Is he rated as high as Samuel Deduno?

Significantly higher. DeDuno didn't come close to cracking a top 40 list for the Twins this year I believe and he is 29 years old.

Jim Crikket
07-30-2012, 10:16 AM
Yeah, obviously I'm not surprised at the gnashing of teeth over this. I personally think Liriano's one bad game last week DID negatively affect the offers Ryan was getting and one good game Sunday wouldn't have helped. That implosion put to bed any misconception scouts might have had that Liriano was "fixed" during his exile to the bullpen. Same old Frankie... as likely to blow up as blow away hitters.

I get that so many fans tend to overvalue their favorite players, but what I don't understand is the argument that the Twins should have offered this guy $12+ mil for next year. Especially when those arguments come from people who also claim the Twins need to rebuild for 2014 and beyond.

Of course, I can't see the logic in risking the $12+ million on Liriano, regardless of whether you think 2013 is a wash or not. Talk about throwing money down a well.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 10:30 AM
I watched Hernandez's 7/18 start in Fenway. His "slider" is a glorified cutter with no depth. He struggles to get his changeup over for strikes, and his fastball at 88-91 (4 seam) is meatball for righthanders. Why the FO would trade for a fly ball lefthander when TF favors righthanders already, is curious to me. At least Liriano had a reasonable HR/FB rate and was lights out against lefthanders. Hernandez gave up a bushel of hits to lefthanders with his "slider" and was destroyed several times by righthanders including a gigantic Cody Ross HR that left Fenway.

Top it off, he kept his first pitch of the game, not first strikeout or out (ended up giving up a double to Ellsbury), suggesting a superstitious/crazy head.

birdwatcher
07-30-2012, 10:34 AM
I was in the camp favoring offering Frankie a fair extension, even overpaying for a year at $12M or getting the draft pick if he wouldn't be reasonable about an extension. However, I'm not going to declare this move as a bad one. How can you predict that? In fact, it's just as reasonable to predict that Pedro Hernandez will have a more productive career going forward than Frankie. Over the years, my guess is that, when I've disagreed with a Terry Ryan move, he's been proven right 70% of the time. Geez, I sure hated giving up Bullock for that no-stuff stiff Diamond.

Winston Smith
07-30-2012, 10:35 AM
Would Hernandez rate some where around what Duensing was rated when he was brought up? Sounds like the stuff is about the same.
Would another Duensing and Punto be that bad for a guy gone at the end of the season?

birdwatcher
07-30-2012, 10:48 AM
Some cats have nine lives, but maybe Frankie's a cat with nine deaths, and nine dead cat bounces! His 15K performance was probably just one more of his patented dead cat bounces. So, now the Chisox will coach him up, proving to tobynot jason and the rest that Rick Anderson is a pathetic incompetent (Frankie was coached by someone else when he performed well you see). What are the chances Frankie puts a string of decent performances together for Chicago, and then comes apart atthe seams again say, just in time for a playoff start. Yeah, I wish we could feel better about this trade, but...

DAM DC Twins Fans
07-30-2012, 10:49 AM
Again--why all the comments over this trade. Liriano was going at the end of the season for nothing. No way, TR would offer him a $12million one-year contract to get the draft pick. Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year. We got two guys who most likely are not worth much--but that is more than we would have gotten at the end of the season.

Frankie has 10 starts (more or less) to demonstrate his value for next year. I doubt he will get an offer of $12million (total for 3 years) he is too up and down.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 10:53 AM
Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year.

Um, yes they are. A CC/Verlander/Hernandez/Dickey/Weaver rotation for $60m a year?

Yes, please.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 11:02 AM
Again--why all the comments over this trade. Liriano was going at the end of the season for nothing. No way, TR would offer him a $12million one-year contract to get the draft pick. Not even CC or Verlander is worth $12million a year. We got two guys who most likely are not worth much--but that is more than we would have gotten at the end of the season.

Frankie has 10 starts (more or less) to demonstrate his value for next year. I doubt he will get an offer of $12million (total for 3 years) he is too up and down.

There is no leak yet of what Jr. turned down from other orgs - we can presume, based on prior comments to the media, that Jr weeded out lower ball, higher ceiling prospects in favor of the "ready to go" route and thus traded for 2 players who were currently on a MLB roster. Certainly no other club offered him that.

We can't argue that other offers were "better" but we can bust him for the faulty approach which targets your typical low-budget patchwork of players that have failed for 21 years running.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 11:03 AM
we can presume, based on prior comments to the media, that Jr weeded out lower ball, higher ceiling prospects in favor of the "ready to go" route and thus traded for 2 players who were currently on a MLB roster.

Except for the part where Ryan said that he was targeting low ball, higher ceiling prospects during the deadline.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 11:09 AM
Except for the part where Ryan said that he was targeting low ball, higher ceiling prospects during the deadline.

See prior comments. He said the opposite as well, and traded thusly. Its clear his intention was to get a replacement level AAA type pitcher with few hours on the arb. clock.

PopRiveter
07-30-2012, 11:13 AM
What's disappointing to me isn't the trade or the returns. It's the fact that a player with that kind of talent accomplished so little when given so many chances. Of course no one would trade high-end prospects for him. He's a coin flip with every outing. That makes for a fun and intriguing player, but not a really successful one.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-30-2012, 11:16 AM
I watched Hernandez's 7/18 start in Fenway. His "slider" is a glorified cutter with no depth. He struggles to get his changeup over for strikes, and his fastball at 88-91 (4 seam) is meatball for righthanders. Why the FO would trade for a fly ball lefthander when TF favors righthanders already, is curious to me. At least Liriano had a reasonable HR/FB rate and was lights out against lefthanders. Hernandez gave up a bushel of hits to lefthanders with his "slider" and was destroyed several times by righthanders including a gigantic Cody Ross HR that left Fenway.

Top it off, he kept his first pitch of the game, not first strikeout or out (ended up giving up a double to Ellsbury), suggesting a superstitious/crazy head.

Perhaps the Twins like most teams viewed more than one freaking game when deciding to take a chance on Hernandez.

Also FWIW: by your logic White Sox fans could say the exact same thing about Liriano when he gave up 3 HR and 7 ER in his last start against them.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 11:22 AM
See prior comments. He said the opposite as well, and traded thusly. Its clear his intention was to get a replacement level AAA type pitcher with few hours on the arb. clock.

So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 11:31 AM
Perhaps the Twins like most teams viewed more than one freaking game when deciding to take a chance on Hernandez.

Also FWIW: by your logic White Sox fans could say the exact same thing about Liriano when he gave up 3 HR and 7 ER in his last start against them.

His line that game is not what I tried explaining. I shared my observations of his "stuff" since that 1 appearance is the only thing freely available at this (if you have mlb.tv). If you have a milb.tv account then by all means tell us what we saw on 7/18 was slower, flatter, and more hittable than what is typical.

Everyone knows Liriano will have days like Hernandez had, but he will have days where he is unhittable due to his raw stuff being better. Also the White Sox are purported to believe they can 'fix' Liriano. Based on a comparison of velocity and action, Hernandez will have days where he is shelled and no days where he is lights out, and can't be fixed due to far less talent.

Hernandez is cheaper and walks fewer hitters, that's it.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 11:35 AM
So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

Do you think TR considers 2 players currently on a MLB roster to be low ball, high ceiling prospects? What he has done is in direct contradiction to what you claim he said he was after.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 11:38 AM
Do you think TR considers 2 players currently on a MLB roster to be low ball, high ceiling prospects? What he has done is in direct contradiction to what you claim he said he was after.

It all depends on what else he was offered for Liriano. We simply don't know what was on the table... that could have been all he was offered.

Nick Nelson
07-30-2012, 11:39 AM
So you're relying on a third-hand account of Ryan's wants versus what Ryan has said directly in interviews.

Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/163133146.html?refer=y) (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote:

"You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

Thrylos
07-30-2012, 11:48 AM
Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/163133146.html?refer=y) (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote:

"You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."


On the other hand, this is exactly what the interim did... I guess he has to admit that he made a mistake now...

Actions speak louder than words. He can say a whole bunch of stuff. What he does is what matters, not what he says he's going to do. He said that he was going to fix the Twins medical stuff and waiting for Godot before they put people on the DL. Plouffe/Capps/Pavano happened.

For some reason I do not believe a word that guy is saying.

ashburyjohn
07-30-2012, 11:51 AM
"Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy?

I view Ryan as a man of integrity, therefore lacking evidence to the contrary I assume no such offer was in hand.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 11:54 AM
I view Ryan as a man of integrity, therefore lacking evidence to the contrary I assume no such offer was in hand.

More importantly, he has no reason to not tell the fans the truth of the situation. Why on earth would he lie about wanting high ceiling guys and then go for the exact opposite unless he received no other offers?

Occam has a razor he'd like to tell you about...

Rube
07-30-2012, 11:55 AM
Below is from Ken Rosenthal of Fox sports on July 9, 2012:

GAMBLING ON LIRIANOTwins (http://twinsdaily.com/mlb/team/minnesota-twins/71595?q=minnesota-twins) left-hander Francisco Liriano (http://twinsdaily.com/mlb/player/francisco-liriano/288299?q=francisco-liriano) is 3-2 with a 2.74 ERA in eight starts since returning to the teamís rotation, but most clubs still are wary of trading for him.

Liriano, even during this period of relative prosperity, is averaging 4.4 walks per nine innings. The Braves have been linked to him, but why would they want a potential free agent, who is no more trustworthy than their young starters?


Better the Braves should trade for Greinke ó or better still, Rays (http://twinsdaily.com/mlb/team/tampa-bay-rays/71616?q=tampa-bay-rays) right-hander James Shields (http://twinsdaily.com/mlb/player/james-shields/408585?q=james-shields), who is earning $7 million this season, with club options of $9 million next season and $12 million in 2014.

Some clubs like Liriano better as a reliever. And itís doubtful that any will part with significant prospects when under the new collective bargaining agreement, there is no possibility of draft-pick compensation if he leaves as a free agent.

The Twins, by the way, will listen not just on Liriano. Closer Matt Capps (http://twinsdaily.com/mlb/player/matt-capps/352821?q=matt-capps), recovering from right shoulder inflammation, also will be available once he comes off the disabled list, sources say.

Nick Nelson
07-30-2012, 11:58 AM
On the other hand, this is exactly what the interim did... I guess he has to admit that he made a mistake now...

He said it would be a mistake to pass up a high-ceiling guy. There is no evidence that we was offered any such prospects; in fact, I'd say the fact that he had to settle on Hernandez and Escobar is a strong indication that he wasn't.

Opposing teams just didn't value Liriano the way we hoped they would. You can sit there and cast blame on Ryan or you can come to terms with the truth of the situation.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 11:59 AM
There is of course the option to float rumors of extending Liriano so as to bait potential buyers, rather than desperately shopping him to anyone who will listen.

IdahoPilgrim
07-30-2012, 12:02 PM
For the record, i object to the term "nobody."

Duly noted - I should have said "almost nobody" or even better, "very few".

mike wants wins
07-30-2012, 12:29 PM
Again, the real hard lesson is that to get quality, you have to give up quality.

jokin
07-30-2012, 12:45 PM
There is of course the option to float rumors of extending Liriano so as to bait potential buyers, rather than desperately shopping him to anyone who will listen.

This.

A club virtually bereft of quality SPs, let alone a quality "power" SP, basically gives away their only option- of any kind- at "P"SP. It is constantly preached that quality starting pitchers don't come cheaply and to wit, the Twins made curious-to-ridiculous long-term deals to the likes of utter mediocrities in Pavano and Blackburn. The play here obviously should have either been in bluffing on their intentions on Liriano long-term to drive up his value or playing chicken on the one-year @ $12Mil for the Pick or one more year of service- with the chance to deal him during 2013. The defenders of Ryan and ownership are mind-boggling. It's well-past obvious that new-blood and agressive, forward-thinking is needed desperately in this organization.

diehardtwinsfan
07-30-2012, 01:46 PM
If there was no plan to offer him 12.5M, then they had to trade him. Here's the question, would Liriano accept 12.5M for a one year offer? That right there is half of the FA budget for pitchers, several of whom could be had cheaper and were far more likely to succeed. The Twins' FO pretty clearly thought that playing chicken with Liriano on a 1 year deal was flushing 12M down the toilet, so trading was all they could do. And extending him... exactly when? He clearly didn't want to do it now, and you cannot blame him. Do you do it after the 2010 season? 2011? There's risk there, and it's clearly risk the front office wanted nothing to do with. I do agree they need to be abit less risk averse, but I'm not sure that Liriano is the poster child example for this.

I highly doubt that there were better offers on the table for Liriano, and if 12.5M wasn't an option, you take what Chicago offered...

MrHockey
07-30-2012, 02:26 PM
The White Sox say they can make him better? (http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_21186792/minnesota-twins-white-sox-think-they-can-make?source=most_viewed) May be he will chew even more gum--wasn't that the key to his most recent success? I hope the Twins light him up on Tuesday. Be patient, don't swing at the slider unless it is up in the zone then swing away.

DPJ
07-30-2012, 02:31 PM
I actually kind of believe Don Cooper could fixed Liriano's machanics and I hope he does so it puts even more light onto the fact that Rick Anderson isn't a good pitching coach.

rickyhawaii
07-30-2012, 02:34 PM
it's the same as last year pretty much. was hoping the Twins would have traded for rebuilding instead of letting guys go. The Twins are either overvaluing their players or bluffing on asking prices right now.

jokin
07-30-2012, 02:37 PM
If there was no plan to offer him 12.5M, then they had to trade him. And extending him... exactly when? He clearly didn't want to do it now, and you cannot blame him. Do you do it after the 2010 season? 2011? There's risk there, and it's clearly risk the front office wanted nothing to do with. I do agree they need to be abit less risk averse, but I'm not sure that Liriano is the poster child example for this.

I highly doubt that there were better offers on the table for Liriano, and if 12.5M wasn't an option, you take what Chicago offered...

They didn't necessarily NEED to extend him, just get the "message" out that they were trying everything possible in an attempt to extend him. And you are right, there weren't better offers on the table for Liriano, partly because of the Twins inability to play poker.

jokin
07-30-2012, 02:39 PM
The White Sox say they can make him better? (http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_21186792/minnesota-twins-white-sox-think-they-can-make?source=most_viewed) May be he will chew even more gum--wasn't that the key to his most recent success? I hope the Twins light him up on Tuesday. Be patient, don't swing at the slider unless it is up in the zone then swing away.

Easy for you to say...

dwintheiser
07-30-2012, 02:45 PM
Going to agree with you on this one, Nick. Anybody who thought Liriano was in a class with the other pitchers acquired at the deadline this year was sadly delusional. Here's the evidence:

A) 5-7, 3.94 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, age 28
B) 9-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, age 28
C) 7-9, 3.82 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, age 33
D) 3-10, 5.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, age 28

A = Anibal Sanchez, B = Zack Greinke, C = Wandy Rodriguez, D = Francisco Liriano
All stats are this season prior to being traded.

And if you want to go back to last year, it doesn't look any better:

A) 8-9, 3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
B) 16-6, 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
C) 11-11, 3.49 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
D) 9-10, 5.09 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 7.5 K/9

Liriano was clearly not in the same class as the other pitchers on the block, and thus clearly did not warrant the same kind of consideration from other clubs.

Oxtung
07-30-2012, 02:47 PM
They didn't necessarily NEED to extend him, just get the "message" out that they were trying everything possible in an attempt to extend him. And you are right, there weren't better offers on the table for Liriano, partly because of the Twins inability to play poker.

This doesn't make any sense. The Twins talking about resigning Liriano doesn't drive demand. What drives demand is a product that is valued by several buyers. If other teams don't think Liriano is valuable no amount of posturing by the Twins is going to change that. Liriano's inconsistencies, better pitchers available and buyers only getting ~12 starts is what drove the asking price.

jokin
07-30-2012, 02:49 PM
This doesn't make any sense. The Twins talking about resigning Liriano doesn't drive demand. What drives demand is a product that is valued by several buyers. If other teams don't think Liriano is valuable no amount of posturing by the Twins is going to change that. Liriano's inconsistencies, better pitchers available and buyers only getting ~12 starts is what drove the asking price.

You obviously play craps.

nicksaviking
07-30-2012, 02:51 PM
More importantly, he has no reason to not tell the fans the truth of the situation. Why on earth would he lie about wanting high ceiling guys and then go for the exact opposite unless he received no other offers?

Occam has a razor he'd like to tell you about...

He would change tunes if after saying he wanted high upsided guys, Dave St. Peter told him he wasn't going to have much payroll to work with next year and might want to think about getting MLB ready arms instead to fill out the rotation.

jokin
07-30-2012, 02:54 PM
Going to agree with you on this one, Nick. Anybody who thought Liriano was in a class with the other pitchers acquired at the deadline this year was sadly delusional. Here's the evidence:



Liriano was clearly not in the same class as the other pitchers on the block, and thus clearly did not warrant the same kind of consideration from other clubs.

I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers. What he did have on his resume were two dominant seasons over his 6+ year career. "Selling the dream" and giving hope at recapturing that magic was part of what Twins' management needed to put at the forefront of their marketing scheme.

snepp
07-30-2012, 02:59 PM
I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers.

Someone put Liriano and Anibal Sanchez into the same class just yesterday.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 03:04 PM
He would change tunes if after saying he wanted high upsided guys, Dave St. Peter told him he wasn't going to have much payroll to work with next year and might want to think about getting MLB ready arms instead to fill out the rotation.

Wild speculation and given Ryan's statements, doesn't change the fact that he'd still probably go for higher upside guys in the low minors for the long-term health of the franchise.

We all know that Ryan is not averse to signing budget starters (gag).

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-30-2012, 03:05 PM
Someone put Liriano and Anibal Sanchez into the same class just yesterday.

Above Sanchez actually.

Oxtung
07-30-2012, 03:09 PM
I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers. What he did have on his resume were two dominant seasons over his 6+ year career. "Selling the dream" and giving hope at recapturing that magic was part of what Twins' management needed to put at the forefront of their marketing scheme.

You just showed why Liriano was so overvalued here. An inability to remember the whole past. Liriano had half of a dominant season, TJ surgery, bad year, good but not great year, followed by a further 2 bad years.

Several posters valued Liriano as a tier 2 FA right behind Hamels and Greinke.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 03:10 PM
This doesn't make any sense. The Twins talking about resigning Liriano doesn't drive demand. What drives demand is a product that is valued by several buyers. If other teams don't think Liriano is valuable no amount of posturing by the Twins is going to change that. Liriano's inconsistencies, better pitchers available and buyers only getting ~12 starts is what drove the asking price.

We knew Liriano wanted to test free agency. So, what harm is there in calling a meeting, lowballing him, having it rejected, and then letting Twitter pick up the fact that the Twins are pursuing an extension with him?

Instead, we get Jonathan Stark, saying the likelihood of Twins trading Liriano is 100%.

In other words, lowballers welcome.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-30-2012, 03:13 PM
So, what harm is there in calling a meeting, lowballing him, having it rejected, and then letting Twitter pick up the fact that the Twins are pursuing an extension with him?


Is this a serious question?

Rube
07-30-2012, 03:17 PM
I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers. What he did have on his resume were two dominant seasons over his 6+ year career. "Selling the dream" and giving hope at recapturing that magic was part of what Twins' management needed to put at the forefront of their marketing scheme.

"Selling the dream"? The Twins are trying to trade a player to a team that has their own scouts and evaluate players independently of what the Twins might "sell" them. There is not a lot they could have done to increase Liriano's perceived value.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 03:17 PM
The Brewers did it.

Oxtung
07-30-2012, 03:22 PM
The Brewers did it.

With who?

Dilligaf69
07-30-2012, 03:28 PM
Agree with everything you've said here, Nick.

I continue to be perplexed by the number of people who are so convinced that we could have gotten so much more for him. They seem to be valuing him based solely on his upside while ignoring his downside, but even the dumbest of MLB front offices is smart enough not to do that.

And when it comes to a guy at his age with his experience, you can't be talking about "potential" anymore. He is what he is. A guy who ranges from brilliant to brutal, both between and within starts.

I don't see why anyone would think that teams would be lining up to offer their best prospects for a 2-month rental of such a player. It defies logic.

Time will tell how this trade plays out. Maybe the Whities are right and they can teach Frankie some new tricks. Maybe he helps them and they even bring him back.

But maybe the Whities see bad Frankie, miss the postseason and he walks at the end of the year while one of these guys ends up helping the Twins, and the fans on the Southside start demanding to know what the hell their management was thinking when they made this deal.

We shall see.


I've become resigned to the fact that just as Liriano "is what he is" message boards are the same way...they are what they are and that is fans who wanna believe they know everything or that they would have done this or that. They treat sprots as a XBox game or fantasy league where you can do anything you want if you just punch in a cheat code. The fact is the Twins probably got just about what they shoud/could have expected for Cisco...who knows maybe their plan is to re-sign Frankie this winter...:p

nicksaviking
07-30-2012, 03:31 PM
Wild speculation and given Ryan's statements, doesn't change the fact that he'd still probably go for higher upside guys in the low minors for the long-term health of the franchise.

We all know that Ryan is not averse to signing budget starters (gag).

I'd like to think he'd take higher upside guys no matter what the level, but then why are all the reports saying that he's looking for MLB ready starters in exchange for Morneau? Just about everything is pointing to him chosing pitchers ready in 2013 over upside.

Nick Nelson
07-30-2012, 03:33 PM
I don't recall anybody claiming that Liriano was in the same class with the other deadline pitchers. What he did have on his resume were two dominant seasons over his 6+ year career. "Selling the dream" and giving hope at recapturing that magic was part of what Twins' management needed to put at the forefront of their marketing scheme.

I think you have a misguided idea of how MLB trade discussions work. "Selling the dream"? "Marketing scheme"? What are you even talking about?

GMs have staffs filled with personnel who give them player assessments and help them make decisions. They don't rely on the words of the guy they're negotiating with or media posturing.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 03:34 PM
The rental they traded for a club's number one prospect and two pitchers of Hernandez's quality, if not better.

How much marginal value over 12 starts does Greinke provide to Liriano? I'll put the over under at one, with a distinct possibility Liriano has a better final 2 months then Greinke outright.

The Brewers frisked the Angels by posturing as pursuers and offered Greinke just below market value. The Twins did the exact opposite - excluded themselves from the pool of Liriano pursuers, softened the buyer market, and got a bag of balls for a guy who will probably be only marginally less valuable than Greinke or Sanchez over the next 12 starts.

Thrylos
07-30-2012, 03:41 PM
You can sit there and cast blame on Ryan or you can come to terms with the truth of the situation.

Alright. Tell me who is lying:

a. Terry Ryan when he says that he is looking for a top prospect no matter his readiness and getting a young MLB-starter over a top prospect would be a mistake
or
b. Ken Rosenthal when he says that the Twins are asking for this (https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/230004730456338432)for Morneau

because there is a conflict here...

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-30-2012, 03:50 PM
With who?
I assume he is talking about Zack Greinke.

And yes obviously Greinke=Liriano. The situations were basically mirror images of themselves :rolleyes:
Also the package the Brewers got for Grienke wasn't exactly awe inspiring anyways.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-30-2012, 03:52 PM
The rental they traded for a club's number one prospect and two pitchers of Hernandez's quality, if not better.

How much marginal value over 12 starts does Greinke provide to Liriano? I'll put the over under at one, with a distinct possibility Liriano has a better final 2 months then Greinke outright.

The Brewers frisked the Angels by posturing as pursuers and offered Greinke just below market value. The Twins did the exact opposite - excluded themselves from the pool of Liriano pursuers, softened the buyer market, and got a bag of balls for a guy who will probably be only marginally less valuable than Greinke or Sanchez over the next 12 starts.

You have to be trolling at this point, you can't seriously think any of this garbage is true.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 04:12 PM
Alright. Tell me who is lying:

a. Terry Ryan when he says that he is looking for a top prospect no matter his readiness and getting a young MLB-starter over a top prospect would be a mistake
or
b. Ken Rosenthal when he says that the Twins are asking for this (https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/230004730456338432)for Morneau

because there is a conflict here...

There actually isn't a conflict. JR starts with a high upside, close to majors guy. He then moves down from that point.

If you want to sell something for a dollar, you don't start negotiations at one dollar.

Thrylos
07-30-2012, 04:32 PM
There actually isn't a conflict. JR starts with a high upside, close to majors guy. He then moves down from that point.

If you want to sell something for a dollar, you don't start negotiations at one dollar.

but, according to Ryan, an MLB-ready starter is less than a top prospect at A level. If you want to sell something for a dollar, you don't start negotiations at 75 cents, right?

TheLeviathan
07-30-2012, 04:47 PM
Alright. Tell me who is lying:

a. Terry Ryan when he says that he is looking for a top prospect no matter his readiness and getting a young MLB-starter over a top prospect would be a mistake
or
b. Ken Rosenthal when he says that the Twins are asking for this (https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/230004730456338432)for Morneau

because there is a conflict here...

This conflict doesn't imply anyone is lying. It could be Ryan is telling the truth and Rosenthal is misinformed. Your argument is pretty bizarre.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 04:53 PM
but, according to Ryan, an MLB-ready starter is less than a top prospect at A level. If you want to sell something for a dollar, you don't start negotiations at 75 cents, right?

To quote Ryan:


Speaking only generally Thursday, GM Terry Ryan said, "When you're out there looking around, I think it's important you're always looking for the high-ceiling guy, whether he's major league-ready or whether he's in A-ball." To focus solely on the 2013 rotation "would be a terrible mistake," Ryan said. Ryan said the best target might be a Class A pitcher, who's further from the majors. "You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

Those statements are not at odds with one another. You try for a high upside guy. The closer that guy is to the majors, the better. If you can't get a MLB-ready guy, you delve into the lower minors.

one_eyed_jack
07-30-2012, 04:56 PM
I don't get this argument that the Twins somehow should have been able to bluff and BS somebody into giving us more for Liriano.

This isn't like poker where your opponent can't see your randomly drawn cards.

It's big league baseball, where what you have is on full display and has a track record, and you have sophisticated opponents who employ all kinds of people to analyze it.

Car salesman may be able to pressure naive customers into overpaying by falsely claiming demand for their merchanside and over-emphasizing its strengths while minimizing or concealing its flaws.

But the notion that such techniques could successfully be used in MLB trades is frankly ludicrous.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 05:52 PM
No one claimed Liriano was a consistently great pitcher like Greinke or Hamels. He is still, overall, an above average pitcher, and lefthanded, and comparable in objective value (WAR) to Sanchez (Liriano has actually been more valuable since 2006).

The haul is disproportional, and it signals that Jr. mishandled the situation. The difference with Milwaukee, is that the Brewers were not selling Greinke so much as trying to re-sign him. With Florida, they had, and are having a firesale. The Twins are putting Span, Willingham, Morneau on ebay with an unrealistically high minimum researve. But Liriano they seemingly dumped on the curb and slapped a cardboard "4 sale" sign on him.

This from the team whose biggest clearest weakness is starting pitching.

To negotiate effectively you have to be willing to walk away, and instead Jr's FO did everything to indicate that the Twins were not going into August with Liriano on the staff.

Kobs
07-30-2012, 06:05 PM
Car salesman may be able to pressure naive customers into overpaying by falsely claiming demand for their merchanside and over-emphasizing its strengths while minimizing or concealing its flaws.

But the notion that such techniques could successfully be used in MLB trades is frankly ludicrous.

Works for Drew Rosenhaus and Scott Boras in this business all the time.

The problem here is, I think the Twins did get the players they asked for. They are exactly what you'd expect this franchise to covet.

jimbo92107
07-30-2012, 06:41 PM
Significantly higher. DeDuno didn't come close to cracking a top 40 list for the Twins this year I believe and he is 29 years old.

Reason I'm asking is that this whole system of rating prospects puzzles me. The best pitchers the Twins have right now are all guys that were not rated as top prospects. In fact, the only thing they have in common is that they all had to fight their way through perceived deficiencies. Diamond and De Vries had to learn to pitch without anything dominant, while Deduno had to figure out how to avoid walking himself into a hole. If Hernandez is rated so much higher than Deduno, who is pitching quite well, then maybe the near future is not quite so bleak for the Twins as some imagine.

It's nice to have an ace, but the Twins seem to get by pretty well with adequate arms. Just don't expect much playoff action.

Like many, I'll be watching Tuesday's game to see what secret sauce the White Sox pitching coach has been feeding Francisco Liriano. If it works, more power to them.

flpmagikat
07-30-2012, 07:29 PM
Works for Drew Rosenhaus and Scott Boras in this business all the time.

The problem here is, I think the Twins did get the players they asked for. They are exactly what you'd expect this franchise to covet.

+1. Maybe that was the best available package, maybe Ryan isn't lying when he said,
http://twinsdaily.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Nick Nelson http://twinsdaily.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?p=39940#post39940)Right. I don't know who Stark was quoting in that ESPN article because it's not attributed, but Ryan was quoted directly (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/163133146.html?refer=y) (and extensively) as saying that focusing on guys who could help next year would be a "terrible mistake." Here's the money quote:

"You can go get a marginal Triple-A guy who might be here next year," he said. "Are you going to be satisfied passing up a high-ceiling guy? I wouldn't be, but everybody has their own philosophy on that."

But that's kinda exactly what he traded for, and while no realistic person expected getting a top prospect back, getting two guys who are "Major league ready", in the same way Butera and Manship are Major league ready, seems like a poor way to play that hand. And for anyone to say there isn't any art or tact involved in business, ha, well that is just foolish.

It's annoying seeing people that unrealistically expected a great return for a questionable good, but for all the folks to be defending the Twins FO as either seemingly being forced to trade Liriano for garbage or that was the only way to handle the situation, or that it somehow doesn't reflect poorly on them is inane. These guys put together the teams that have made baseball unwatchable(and getting worse) over the last few years. They aren't doing their jobs well. Hold them accountable.

flpmagikat
07-30-2012, 07:30 PM
Sorry for the formatting there, first post. :confused:

hoffy
07-30-2012, 07:55 PM
I read comparisons of Escobar to Omar Vizquel defensively, it was by Sox fans so take it for what it's worth, but if he can learn to keep the ball on the ground and slap it to the opposite field he could be a valuable SS. The Twins are extremely lacking in the minors of good defensive middle infielders and the scouts haven't shown much ability to find them. For that reason the value of a player like that to the Twins organization is probably higher than to a team that has a track record of finding and developing them. As far as Hernandez goes he's probably the best left handed starter in the higher levels of the minors for the Twins, as sadly as that sounds. Ryan certainly didn't fleece the Sox on this trade but he seems to be trying to address two glaring holes in our farm system. Hopefully any more trades between now and the deadline will bring in some high upside starting pitchers.

Nick Nelson
07-30-2012, 08:12 PM
It's annoying seeing people that unrealistically expected a great return for a questionable good, but for all the folks to be defending the Twins FO as either seemingly being forced to trade Liriano for garbage or that was the only way to handle the situation, or that it somehow doesn't reflect poorly on them is inane. These guys put together the teams that have made baseball unwatchable(and getting worse) over the last few years. They aren't doing their jobs well. Hold them accountable.

Debating whether or not they should have traded Liriano is fair. Given what they received, I honestly would have probably preferred to just hold him and make the qualifying offer during the offseason. I think it's a risk a team like the Twins should be able to take.

This article was more geared toward the complaints about what the Twins got back relative to what they could have gotten back. My guess is that Ryan's choices came down to uninspiring & flawed younger prospects or low-ceiling, MLB-ready older prospects. In that situation, he opted for the guys who might be able to cheaply fill some holes in the near future.

Oxtung
07-30-2012, 08:35 PM
The rental they traded for a club's number one prospect and two pitchers of Hernandez's quality, if not better.

How much marginal value over 12 starts does Greinke provide to Liriano? I'll put the over under at one, with a distinct possibility Liriano has a better final 2 months then Greinke outright.

The Brewers frisked the Angels by posturing as pursuers and offered Greinke just below market value. The Twins did the exact opposite - excluded themselves from the pool of Liriano pursuers, softened the buyer market, and got a bag of balls for a guy who will probably be only marginally less valuable than Greinke or Sanchez over the next 12 starts.

The Brewers didn't get the package they did because they were hoping to resign Greinke. The Brewers got their "Haul" because once Hamels re-signed Greinke was perceived as THE BEST PITCHER AVAILABLE. Liriano isn't even in the same discussion and that was proven out by what the Twins got in return.

flpmagikat
07-30-2012, 08:37 PM
Debating whether or not they should have traded Liriano is fair. Given what they received, I honestly would have probably preferred to just hold him and make the qualifying offer during the offseason. I think it's a risk a team like the Twins should be able to take.

This article was more geared toward the complaints about what the Twins got back relative to what they could have gotten back. My guess is that Ryan's choices came down to uninspiring & flawed younger prospects or low-ceiling, MLB-ready older prospects. In that situation, he opted for the guys who might be able to cheaply fill some holes in the near future.

Right, I don't necessarily disagree with your initial article, its more the discussion which came about, and I agree with klobs snark. Ha so at least I'm registered now and not just lurking.

Anyway I agree that given what they received, it would've made more sense to just keep him and offer him the $12whatever mil if he held up. The players they got back might fill a role, but they seem like guys who can be acquired without giving anything up but money, let alone the best pitcher on your staff(and yes, thats just sad for many reasons, and being the most valuable SP for the Twins doesn't mean other teams value you the same) It is beginning to feel to me like, well what many more cynical than myself have been worrying/whining about. That the Twins ownership/FO just isn't going to spend the money they are shedding. Which kinda makes sense given that they need to rebuild and Im not a believer in the "just sign a rotation" strangeness.

But yeah, whatever. Seems like another poorly handled situation by the same guys that people have had similar gripes with in the past. Instead of valuing their own guy, and saying, "make me an offer i can't refuse, and we'll see", it seems like they just said, "make me an offer, we don't want this guy either, and so we'll take it".

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 08:56 PM
The Brewers didn't get the package they did because they were hoping to resign Greinke. The Brewers got their "Haul" because once Hamels re-signed Greinke was perceived as THE BEST PITCHER AVAILABLE. Liriano isn't even in the same discussion and that was proven out by what the Twins got in return.

See intermediate comments. the assertion is not that Greinke=Liriano. If anything, Liriano ~=~ Sanchez (who caught the Tigers No. 2 overall prospect - a much better farm than CWS too).

It is the disproportion raising flags.

Even the Astros go the Pirates 8th best prospect (better farm than CWS) for a 33 y/o who's career WAR compares closely to Liriano's.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 09:11 PM
oops wrong thread

one_eyed_jack
07-30-2012, 09:17 PM
Whether or not trading him was the right thing to do is a separate issue. They certainly didn't have to move him. And I wouldn't disagree with the position that if what they got was the best available offer, it might have been better to keep him and make the qualifying offer.

My only issue is with this claim that with by engaging in better marketing bluster and planting rumors, the Twins could have duped someone into giving up more for Liriano. MLB teams have enough reliable information and intelligence on other players that they do not need to rely on posturing and hype when valuing potential trade targets.

There are plenty of legit reasons to rip on the front office, arguably including the decision to trade Liriano at all. But failure to get more for him when they did isn't one of them, it just wasn't realistic than anyone was going to give up more than Chicago did.

Jim H
07-30-2012, 09:24 PM
"Debating whether or not they should have traded Liriano is fair. Given what they received, I honestly would have probably preferred to just hold him and make the qualifying offer during the offseason. I think it's a risk a team like the Twins should be able to take"

I don't really think that holding on to Liriano makes a whole lot of sense. It is pretty darn likely that he will be available for a lot less than that this off-season. Largely I agree with your earlier argument, that the Twins got what they could for Liriano and that is about all he is worth given his history.

I also think there is some chance that one or the other of the 2 prospects received in this trade may turn out to be rather useful. A lot of "high ceiling" prospects don't ever get anywhere near their ceilings. A couple of 23 year olds who may have been rushed a bit through the White Sox organization may have a little more ceiling than is readily apparent. Ryan actually has a bit of a track record of picking up useful players in what are basically player dumps.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 09:27 PM
it just wasn't realistic than anyone was going to give up more than Chicago did.

I'll say it was realistic, on the same basis of information you have atm - nothing.

Hernandez is a much lousier pitcher than Liriano. All of the downside, none of the upside.

There is ample evidence to suggest that allowing Liriano increased liberty with his slider would increase value "immediately," as the CWS claim and which is - something amenable to strikeouts and therefore contrary to pitch to contact / Anderson=Pohlad theory.

Still, the issue which no one has even addressed - disproportionality.

How does Liriano net a bag of balls compared to no. 1 and No. 2 prospects (plus 2+ more prospects) not warrant an inquiry?

I think you defenders are naive. Liriano was not Greinke / Hamels, but he was on the tier of Sanchez (arguably, a tier above). Jr. blew it, plain and simple. No reason Liriano should have been traded after Sanchez.

Brock Beauchamp
07-30-2012, 09:43 PM
I think you defenders are naive. Liriano was not Greinke / Hamels, but he was on the tier of Sanchez (arguably, a tier above). Jr. blew it, plain and simple. No reason Liriano should have been traded after Sanchez.

Sanchez is both a better pitcher and is more consistant than Liriano, posting an ERA+ of 117, 106, 100, 104 over the past four years with nearly 200 IP every year (compared to Liriano's epic ERA+ of 76, 112, 80, 77). He's the anti-Liriano. Unspectacular but far far FAR more consistent. The type of guy you give up a little more to get because he's worth extending to a multi-year deal.

And it's really convenient that the people who want to play up Liriano have the tendency to ignore that the Marlins also gave up Infante in the trade, a middle infielder who is signed cheaply through 2013, has posted an OPS+ of 100 this season, and has posted a WAR of 2.9, 2.3, and 1.8 (partial season) over the past three years.

And if you are a contending team, why on earth would you trade for Liriano when Sanchez is on the market? That would be a colossally stupid move. You try to get the best guys on the market first, not leave them on the board for your competition to snatch up later.

In short, I don't think you should be calling anyone naive.

Willihammer
07-30-2012, 10:05 PM
Sanchez is both a better pitcher and is more consistant than Liriano, posting an ERA+ of 117, 106, 100, 104 over the past four years with nearly 200 IP every year (compared to Liriano's epic ERA+ of 76, 112, 80, 77). He's the anti-Liriano. Unspectacular but far far FAR more consistent. The type of guy you give up a little more to get because he's worth extending to a multi-year deal.

And it's really convenient that the people who want to play up Liriano have the tendency to ignore that the Marlins also gave up Infante in the trade

The convnience you're ignoring is the absolute objective WAR, where Liriano is comparable to Sanchex, or even faborable. He's also lefthanded, and poichting in the American league. 2 more slices in his favor.

True Infante is a valuable piece but only valuable in the replacemenent sense. Not much upside there from the 30 y/o perennial .713 part time outfielder / bench player.

Kobs
07-30-2012, 10:20 PM
It's nice to have an ace, but the Twins seem to get by pretty well with adequate arms. Just don't expect much playoff action.

I'm sorry, what?

Oxtung
07-30-2012, 10:22 PM
See intermediate comments. the assertion is not that Greinke=Liriano. If anything, Liriano ~=~ Sanchez (who caught the Tigers No. 2 overall prospect - a much better farm than CWS too).

It is the disproportion raising flags.

Even the Astros go the Pirates 8th best prospect (better farm than CWS) for a 33 y/o who's career WAR compares closely to Liriano's.

Here is your original statement about Greinke:

How much marginal value over 12 starts does Greinke provide to Liriano? I'll put the over under at one, with a distinct possibility Liriano has a better final 2 months then Greinke outright.

So yes in fact you did directly compare Greinke to Liriano. You can back pedal from that if you'd like but it did happen.

You, and several other posters, seem to be making the mistake of think 2010 Liriano is the "real" Liriano and he should return value equivalent to that year. You completely are dismissing that 2009, 2011 and now in 2012 he has been a bad pitcher. When you look at the other pitchers that have been traded they have been average to good 2009-2012. When you are a better pitcher of course you're going to return more of value.

chopper0080
07-30-2012, 10:22 PM
Again, the real hard lesson is that to get quality, you have to give up quality.

And most would agree that Liriano was not quality.

I have no issues with this deal other than my own false hope we would get more for him.

hoffy
07-30-2012, 10:41 PM
True Infante is a valuable piece but only valuable in the replacemenent sense. Not much upside there from the 30 y/o perennial .713 part time outfielder / bench player.

He's actually Detroit's starting 2B and that .713 compares closely to Luis Castillo's career numbers. The beauty of making a playoff run is that you don't have to worry too much about upside, you want results now. In my opinion Infante is going to help Detroit as much as Sanchez.

Brock Beauchamp
07-31-2012, 06:48 AM
The convnience you're ignoring is the absolute objective WAR, where Liriano is comparable to Sanchex, or even faborable. He's also lefthanded, and poichting in the American league. 2 more slices in his favor.

That's an excellent point... well, it would have been if you hadn't made it up. Baseball-Reference has Sanchez's last three WARs at 2.9, 3.5, 1.4 compared to Liriano's 4.0 .6, -.5.

Fangraphs has Sanchez's last three WARs at 4.4, 3.8, 2.2 compared to Liriano's 6.0, 1.0, 1.1.

Again, not even close to the same player.


True Infante is a valuable piece but only valuable in the replacemenent sense. Not much upside there from the 30 y/o perennial .713 part time outfielder / bench player.

Infante has a combined WAR of 8.2 in the past 2 2/3rd seasons. You understand that WAR means "wins above replacement", right? And that a player worth an average of 2.5-3.0 WAR per season is, by the term's very definition, not a replacement player?

kab21
07-31-2012, 08:05 AM
Wow, I had no idea so many people loved Liriano and missed his run of awful the last few seasons. He might have an excellent post Twins career because he does have excellent stuff but this has to be one of the most obvious situations where it's better for two sides to part. The good Liriano wasn't going to happen in MN.

dwintheiser
07-31-2012, 11:15 AM
The convnience you're ignoring is the absolute objective WAR, where Liriano is comparable to Sanchex, or even faborable. He's also lefthanded, and poichting in the American league. 2 more slices in his favor.

Both of these are very specious points.

First off, actually looking at baseball-reference's WAR values shows that these two guys aren't really comparable:

Since 2007 -
Sanchez = 9.3
Liriano = 4.0

Bumping this back to 2006 is highly questionable, since it includes a season prior to Liriano's latest injury, but even so, Sanchez's 2006 was also really good (10-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), so that the difference remains pretty much the same:

Since 2006 -
Sanchez = 12.9
Liriano = 8.4

Fangraph's WAR makes the two pitchers look much more equal, for reasons I can't figure out. You can cling to that if you want, but citing Fangraphs while dismissing baseball-reference would be as big a mistake as citing baseball-reference while dismissing Fangraphs -- and neither make Liriano look better than Sanchez.

Second, the difference between the American and National Leagues in terms of pitchers' ERA isn't that huge; AL teams score an average of 4.46 runs per game, resulting in a mean ERA of 4.07, while NL teams score an average of 4.24 runs per game, resulting in a mean ERA of 3.97. So, sure, you could say that Sanchez's ERA might go up in the AL while Liriano's might go down in the NL. Even so, that Liriano's ERA will look better and Sanchez's will look worse doesn't mean that either pitcher will actually be better or worse -- all you're changing is the context, not the underlying value.

While I'm not normally a fan of this kind of statement, in this case, I think the market got the analysis right -- Sanchez is a more valuable pitcher than Liriano, and is more likely to have a positive impact on his team, and thus was worth more to acquire.