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Seth Stohs
07-26-2012, 05:41 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?837-Houston-We-have-a-Problem

sorney
07-26-2012, 07:19 AM
Absolutely should start blowing things up. It's been almost two years of the same results, time to start over. With most of the *impact* prospects still a couple years away, might as well load up on some more in hope of striking some gold with that class

DPJ
07-26-2012, 07:27 AM
I've advocated "blowing it up" since last season and I still think that's the best plan of action for this franchise. The Twins aren't gonna win in the next couple years unless the Pohlads go on a spending spree (which won't happen) Hell maybe I wouldn't be against blowing it up if there was some type of longterm plan coming from the front office, but I've yet to hear anything that sounds like a legit plan to get this team back to the postseason.

I don't care about ticket sales or selling hope to the fans cause the moment you start winning again the fans will come back. Yeah it's gonna be a tough couple years, but treading water while still being one of the worst teams in the league isn't a plan. It's time to start over...

mike wants wins
07-26-2012, 07:35 AM
Yes, they should blow it up. The minors are devoid of pitching, middle infielders, and power. No way they are good next year unless they open up the checkbook in a major way, and almost no one thinks that will happen.

diehardtwinsfan
07-26-2012, 07:44 AM
The question I'd ask is how many of those prospects that Houston got are likely to be impact prospects... If these are B grade guys, Houston instantly has the best farm system in baseball right now... but they don't. I'm all for making smart trades, but blowing things up to get talent that if it makes it is just a utility player isn't the best plan either. I do like how they drafted, but that's also a long term proposition as well, and to be fair to the Twins, I don't think this was an option for them as soon as Corea was off the board. No way Giolito, Gausman, Zimmer, Buxton, etc. were going to go that far below slot so that the Twins could go out and have grabbed a guy like Mccullers.

The other thing is that the Twins have a pretty nice core of hitters both now and in the system. Next season, I full expect Benson, Arcia, and Hicks to all be knocking on the door making Revere and Willingham expendable. It would certainly be wise not to bring all of them up at once, but those guys are all profiling as above average regulars, and in the case of Arcia, middle of the order bat. Plouffe, Dozier, Parmalee, Doumit, and Mauer are all looking pretty decent, so this team on the offense is in need of a 2B (or a 3B if they want to move Plouffe over there) and a part time DH. Morneau won't get them much due to his contract, but next year at this time, he's going to be far more valuable even if he doesn't improve over what he's doing now, and if the improvements we see are continuing, the Twins might very well be shopping two sluggers at the deadline next year. Where they are weak, is pitching. They need pitching to work with this next wave. If they can flip Span, Morneau, Willingham, and Liriano for that type of pitching help, then there's no need to blow the team up. However, with all the chips, I highly doubt they can aquire the starters that they need, so in the Twins case, I think it's fair to say that free agency is going to be necessary.

Looking at what Ryan is doing thus far, it seems like this is his plan. It isn't a bad plan. I don't think blowing things up is going to get us competing sooner. I do agree that some of the young guys are going to take some lumps, and that is what 2013 is going to be for, and to an extent 2014. That said, if they continue with this plan, they will field a quasi-competitive team that will keep butts in the seats... Lest you forget, this is a business, and selling out target field is a priority. Ryan actually has demonstrated in the past that this is somethign he's capable of doing, and having him as the GM of this team for a couple of years makes a ton of sense.... Once that talent is performing, I'm not sure he's the guy who can get us over the top, but getting us to it is something he does well.

Brock Beauchamp
07-26-2012, 07:54 AM
At this point, I think a "controlled burn" (I'm full of space-related phrases this morning) makes the most sense, which is what appears to be JR's plan. If no one bites on Morneau, wait until next season. As diehard mentioned, his value will be more next season even if his performance remains steady. If you trade either Span or Willingham this season, you can offload the other next year if the team is still awful.

It's going to be many years before Houston is anything close to resembling a decent baseball team and with them moving to the nasty AL West next season, it could be even longer than it appears now. The Twins are no longer a small market team. They can afford to bring in decent players every season in FA while offloading players at their peak.

The Twins have a lot of hitters in the pipeline in the next three years and Mauer in his prime. To me, it doesn't make any sense to trade the entire team and punt on the next 3-4 seasons, which is essentially what posters on this forum are advocating. In 3-4 years, we'll have Mauer still eating 1/4 of the salary, only at that point he'll be in his early 30s and declining in production.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 07:58 AM
RP & diehard...can you explain to me whatr JR's plan is?

Brock Beauchamp
07-26-2012, 08:02 AM
RP & diehard...can you explain to me whatr JR's plan is?

To me, it looks like he's trying to move some assets and offload future money for prospects to restock the system while maintaining a semblance of a Major League franchise.

I'm not one to jump the gun and make rash judgments on plans that haven't had time to bear fruit. JR tried to build a better team this offseason, the pitching failed miserably, and now he's compensating. The real test will be this offseason to see how he spends the newly-freed money. It's hard to accurately judge his plan until he actually has a chance to do something.

mike wants wins
07-26-2012, 08:02 AM
Agree, what is the plan? Not one young player has been acquired in the last year. All their signings were older players.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 08:09 AM
To me, it looks like he's trying to move some assets and offload future money for prospects to restock the system while maintaining a semblance of a Major League franchise.



I'm not trying to be a dick, but I gotta say it. Is this current abomination really maintaining a semblance of a major league club?

I guess you're right that's it's too early to talk on the plan when time hasn't been given yet. But I'd really love for JR to come out (maybe he will after the deadline) and explain to Twins what his goals and plan is for the future.

Brock Beauchamp
07-26-2012, 08:16 AM
I'm not trying to be a dick, but I gotta say it. Is this current abomination really maintaining a semblance of a major league club?

I guess you're right that's it's too early to talk on the plan when time hasn't been given yet. But I'd really love for JR to come out (maybe he will after the deadline) and explain to Twins what his goals and plan is for the future.

Damn it, I had a long post typed out and the tab crashed in my browser.

Anyway, over 1/3 of the roster looks like a decent ML team. The problem is that the rest of it is complete crap.

I'd also like for JR to come out and state his plans but it doesn't make any sense to do it before the deadline. You're not going to gain negotiating power by showing your hand. But after the waiver deadline, I'd like to see the front office come out and state their intentions for next season and how they plan to get there.

snepp
07-26-2012, 08:24 AM
I'd like to know what their long-term plans are for the GM position.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 08:47 AM
Maybe after the deadline JR or DSP will come out and give a state of the union type address for the franchise, cause this is just bad.

TheLeviathan
07-26-2012, 08:58 AM
It's nice to see the tone around here is getting further and further away from the "You know, with just one or two pitchers, 2013 might....." Which is really a hopeless position.

This club has to make some significant changes and it has to start with unloading just about everyone who isn't going to be a part of this team in 2-3 years. It may be a bitter pill to swallow, but that's where we're at.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 08:59 AM
it's nice to see the tone around here is getting further and further away from the "you know, with just one or two pitchers, 2013 might....." which is really a hopeless position.


cue dave

IdahoPilgrim
07-26-2012, 09:21 AM
It's nice to see the tone around here is getting further and further away from the "You know, with just one or two pitchers, 2013 might....." Which is really a hopeless position.

This club has to make some significant changes and it has to start with unloading just about everyone who isn't going to be a part of this team in 2-3 years. It may be a bitter pill to swallow, but that's where we're at.

I concur with the sentiment. The difficulty is going to come in assessing who is going to be a part of the team in 2-3 years. I suspect there will be vast disagreement among fans about that. For example, Liriano. Do we keep him or trade him? I would say trade, but quite a few have suggested signing him to a 3-year contract on the hopes he puts his difficulties behind him and fulfills his potential. Certainly, if he does that, he would play a very important role 2-3 years down the road. Same for Baker. I also think (and I know many disagree with me) that you put Span in that category - he is young enough that he can significantly add to this team in 2015 if we keep him that long. I would, however, trade Willingham - I just don't see him starting in 2015 - and Carroll too, if you can get anything for them. So it all comes down to who you keep and who you jettison - as usual, the devil lies in the details.

diehardtwinsfan
07-26-2012, 09:24 AM
RP & diehard...can you explain to me whatr JR's plan is?


From here, it looks like he's attempting to move expendable assets for pitching that help sooner as opposed to later. The real question is how much will he do in free agency, as I don't see any way for this team to improve in that area without making some additions via free agency... Even if he managed to strike gold and flip Liriano and Span for high ceiling AA pitchers this year and then do the same with Morneau and Willingham next year, I'd argue this team still needs pitching to compete in 2014. It has no depth there. As well, bad starting pitching typically leads to bad bullpens as they get overworked.... I suspect the pen in particular is going to be a problem over the next couple of months, even if the starting pitching were to magically improve. Repairing the pen means getting 5 decent starters and having ideally 2 more in AA/AAA that can step in quickly and not implode, and I don't see that happening without some free agency moves.

I do think his draft alligned to this too. They drafted a bunch of college relievers who at worst profile to be pretty decent bullpen options come 2014, and if we are lucky, one learns a 3rd pitch and becomes an average or better starter. As such, I don't see this team having problems finding too much help in the pen around that time.... at least nothing that a Burton style pickup cannot solve.

I don't consider myself to be an optimist or a pessimist. Dave's a bit over-optimistic on these forums, but he isn't as far from reality as you think when he says they just need pitching. 2 above average starters and this team is a fringe contender. I think the players would certainly be playing harder right now and then pen wouldn't be as shakey. This isn't a scenario where you just blow things up and start over. There's plenty of good stuff in the line up and not nearly enough on the mound. Blowing things up will mean a lot of .480 to .520 ball clubs which won't give you a great draft position and will waste the primes of many of the decent prospects that they have.

spideyo
07-26-2012, 09:26 AM
Surprised that I haven't seen the point brought up before but there is one MAJOR difference between the Twins and the Astros. Next year, the Astros will be playing in the American League for the the first time EVER. They NEED to blow their team up, because they are going to be competing against totally different teams. No more double-switches, no more hitting pitchers. They'll have a regular DH spot to fill. I can't quite articulate it, but there is a distinct difference in playing style between the American League and the National League, and the Astros need to start stocking up on American League players.

cr9617
07-26-2012, 09:31 AM
It's nice to see the tone around here is getting further and further away from the "You know, with just one or two pitchers, 2013 might....." Which is really a hopeless position.

This club has to make some significant changes and it has to start with unloading just about everyone who isn't going to be a part of this team in 2-3 years. It may be a bitter pill to swallow, but that's where we're at.

Right on

I want to believe there is some sort of plan in place, but I'm not entirely sure. To be fair to TR, the hole that this franchise has dug for itself is so damn big, that I think his options were pretty limited for this season. I think he did a pretty good plugging some holes on the cheap, not including the pitching staff.

Not selling last year was a big mistake and an opportunity missed. Other teams would have done it, but this team lacks balls and can't seem to think big enough for that. And, of course, BS was still running the show.

jctwins
07-26-2012, 09:32 AM
Maybe after the deadline JR or DSP will come out and give a state of the union type address for the franchise, cause this is just bad.

JR has been pretty honest during the Sunday morning/early afternoon radio show, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was pretty open on the Sunday after the deadline.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 09:35 AM
From here, it looks like he's attempting to move expendable assets for pitching that help sooner as opposed to later.


JR already said he's going for ceiling over availability to help the major league club.


There's plenty of good stuff in the line up and not nearly enough on the mound. Blowing things up will mean a lot of .480 to .520 ball clubs which won't give you a great draft position and will waste the primes of many of the decent prospects that they have.

How does blowing things up not give you a better draft position?

How do you waste the primes of a bunch of kids in the early 20's on the farm?

TheLeviathan
07-26-2012, 09:39 AM
2 above average starters and this team is a fringe contender. .

What people don't seem to realize is that many more things have gone right than they have gone wrong. Willingham is having a career year. Mauer is healthy and having an outstanding season. Morneau is back and semi-capable. Plouffe had a breakout. Revere is having a breakout. Doumit is healthy and hitting very well. Diamond, Burton, Perkins, and Burnett are pitching some great ball.

When you compare that to the wrongs - Baker hurt, Pavano hurt, Capps hurt, Blackburn garbage. (Maybe one or two others I'm forgetting) - this team is actually a bit lucky they aren't WORSE.

I'm encouraged by some of Ryan's interviews the last few Sundays. He appears to get that this team isn't as good as some think and they're way further off than a pitcher or two.

Thrylos
07-26-2012, 09:40 AM
The Twins have made few more moves than the ones listed, namely signing 4 - 30+ year old free agent players this off-season, which the Astros did not do...
As far as this goes:

So what do you think? Will the Twins or the Astros contend in their division first?

IMHO "contending in their division" should not cut it any more. The Indians are "contending" and they will finish below .500. One should ask which of the 2 teams will "win a world series next", which is the mark of excellence, not "contending in the division", which is the mark of mediocrity. But, unfortunately, a lot of Twins' fans have been happy with the mediocrity of the Gardy era, which appeared great after the contraction situation and the perpetual basement dwelling of the late 90s. But it is about time the bar is raised again. There is no contraction, there is no perpetual suckage, they got a brand new ballpark... Time to raise the bar for the Twins, because if nobody does, and people are satisfied with mediocrity, mediocrity will continue.

Ask yourselves this: How would you feel if they win 80 games in 2013 and finish 2nd in the division? Is this a successful season or just an improved but mediocre season? I think it is about time we are start to expect excellence from this team...

diehardtwinsfan
07-26-2012, 09:51 AM
I think 80 wins in 2013 is fine... I think 80 wins as a goal is not. 80 wins next season means that some of the moves Ryan made panned out (which hopefully means that we have some starting pitching we can count on for 2014)...

diehardtwinsfan
07-26-2012, 09:53 AM
JR already said he's going for ceiling over availability to help the major league club.



How does blowing things up not give you a better draft position?

How do you waste the primes of a bunch of kids in the early 20's on the farm?

Becuase they have a lineup that can singlehandly win games now, and it only looks to improve.. Their OF will be better over the next couple of years, and better both offensively and defensively. Dozier, Plouffe, and Parmalee should all improve as well and should solidify themselves as average or better options for their positions. They need pitching... badly.

TheLeviathan
07-26-2012, 09:58 AM
Becuase they have a lineup that can singlehandly win games now

No they don't. This is such a mistake to believe this.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 10:11 AM
Becuase they have a lineup that can singlehandly win games now, and it only looks to improve.. Their OF will be better over the next couple of years, and better both offensively and defensively. Dozier, Plouffe, and Parmalee should all improve as well and should solidify themselves as average or better options for their positions. They need pitching... badly.

1. The Twins are 9th in the AL in run scored. A solid lineup but far from singlehandly winning games.

2. The OF prospects of Hicks, Benson, Arcia are nice prospects, but at the end of the day they're still just prospects. More will fail then succeed, so I don't know how you can already start pimping an OF when we don't know what we'll get from any of them.

3. I don't know even know how the hell you're already talking about Doz, Ploufee and Parm as average or abbve-average players at this point in their career.

cr9617
07-26-2012, 10:16 AM
Becuase they have a lineup that can singlehandly win games now, and it only looks to improve.. Their OF will be better over the next couple of years, and better both offensively and defensively. Dozier, Plouffe, and Parmalee should all improve as well and should solidify themselves as average or better options for their positions. They need pitching... badly.

The current state of the Twins isn't nearly as rosy as you make it seem.

CDog
07-26-2012, 10:29 AM
What people don't seem to realize is that many more things have gone right than they have gone wrong. Willingham is having a career year. Mauer is healthy and having an outstanding season. Morneau is back and semi-capable. Plouffe had a breakout. Revere is having a breakout. Doumit is healthy and hitting very well. Diamond, Burton, Perkins, and Burnett are pitching some great ball.

When you compare that to the wrongs - Baker hurt, Pavano hurt, Capps hurt, Blackburn garbage. (Maybe one or two others I'm forgetting) - this team is actually a bit lucky they aren't WORSE.


I agree it could be worse, although oddly enough I felt that more strongly earlier in the year when things actually were going worse. Weird. But I don't think they've been lucky, and I'd differntly weight how far above or below expectations some of the things on your list are. Mauer IS having an outstanding year, but it's almost exactly average for him. Doumit is really close to his career averages also. Revere has improved from last year, but is now more in line with what you'd expect of him given his track record. Perkins has been very good, but not all that different than he was last year. Morneau has been available and semi-capable, as you say, but he's still having his worst full-season since his first back in 2005.

Compare that with the downsides. Baker out from before the year even started, and your next two best starters from an expectation standpoint giving very little (Pavano/Liriano), your other two starters (from pre-season plans) both going WELL below career norms to the point of being demoted or released, and Capps being gone has had the domino effect of having every bullpen role being moved a rung up the ladder.

Now that both the positives and the negatives of the year have me depressed, I'll move along...

EDIT: The one downer you may have forgotten that I did too...Valencia crapping the bed. Granted, it allowed in part for Plouffe's breakout, but he was bad while here, and his demotion moved Dozier into the lineup who hasn't been all that effective yet.

BD57
07-26-2012, 10:31 AM
Any club contending would find a way to get Mauer & Willingham's bats in the order pretty much every day. After that - - - not so much.

Span would probably be in the lineup for the majority of contenders.

Morneau has been that kind of player in the past, but he's a couple of years removed from the last stretch when he was that guy.

We don't have a great offensive club - it's better than last year, which (IMO) is why we see it more positively .... but "better than last year" really isn't saying that much.

And the starting rotation ... yeech .... as well as Diamond has pitched, he's not a #1 - but that's who he's been for us this year. Who do we have that you'd want to give the ball for a playoff game?

This isn't a good team. It can't be fixed by adding a piece or two.

mike wants wins
07-26-2012, 10:39 AM
Terry Ryan has specifically stated that the offense isn't nearly good enough....I trust him on this one, frankly. That said, if one or two of Hicks/Arcia/Benson is legit next year, I think they are better than Revere, and maybe Span. But that still leaves no SS, no 2B, an inconsistent 1B, and a big question mark at 3B.

Frankly, I'd deal Span and Willingham, and just suck this year, with two of the above (or Bigley or whomever) in the lineup to start next year. This team is awful, really, really awful. Having them here this year doesn't help this year, and probably doesn't help next year. Time to move on.*

*unless you really believe they'll sign 2-3 legit starting pitchers (which no team has ever done in 1 year, I don't think), and 1-2 more hitters (and that Plouffe and Morneau will join Mauer as being big time again)......but hope is not a strategy

Brock Beauchamp
07-26-2012, 10:44 AM
unless you really believe they'll sign 2-3 legit starting pitchers (which no team has ever done in 1 year, I don't think)

The Yankees have done it at least once. Other than that, I can't recall a team picking up two legit starters.

TheLeviathan
07-26-2012, 10:55 AM
But I don't think they've been lucky, and I'd differntly weight how far above or below expectations some of the things on your list are.

It's not that I'm saying they are lucky completely, but people try to make this season out to be one apocalyptic twist after another.....and I'd actually argue just as many things have gone right as they've gone horribly wrong. So if you're projecting forward, you can't plan on things getting significantly better than they are now, which happens to be the bottom of the AL. This isn't the apocalypse of bad luck - this is just not a very good baseball team.

The only phase of this team that has been good has been the back-end of their bullpen, but the "soft under belly" as was aptly put this weak, was exposed badly by the Sox. This team needs bullpen, lineup, and rotation help. And a significant amount of each.

No reason to grasp at phantom 2013 straws is my position - rebuild around the future of your minor league system.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-26-2012, 11:02 AM
Any club contending would find a way to get Mauer & Willingham's bats in the order pretty much every day. After that - - - not so much.

Span would probably be in the lineup for the majority of contenders.



Span would crack the lineup of any team in baseball. Most teams wouldn't mind Plouffes .855 OPS in the lineup as well, ditto with Doumit.

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 11:35 AM
1)The Twins have made few more moves than the ones listed, namely signing 4 - 30+ year old free agent players this off-season, which the Astros did not do...
2)As far as this goes:


IMHO "contending in their division" should not cut it any more. The Indians are "contending" and they will finish below .500. One should ask which of the 2 teams will "win a world series next", which is the mark of excellence, not "contending in the division", which is the mark of mediocrity. But, unfortunately, a lot of Twins' fans have been happy with the mediocrity of the Gardy era, which appeared great after the contraction situation and the perpetual basement dwelling of the late 90s. But it is about time the bar is raised again. There is no contraction, there is no perpetual suckage, they got a brand new ballpark... Time to raise the bar for the Twins, because if nobody does, and people are satisfied with mediocrity, mediocrity will continue.

Ask yourselves this: How would you feel if they win 80 games in 2013 and finish 2nd in the division? Is this a successful season or just an improved but mediocre season? I think it is about time we are start to expect excellence from this team...


1) And how does this hurt the Twins or help the Astros? The Twins are going to have money to spend on FA's; even more so if they go down the path of a firesale that so many here advocate. Should the Pohlad's just pocket that extra cash? Should an extra $30-60 million go towards the draft or signing international players? Money is going to get spent on FA's whether or not the Twins have a core group of players that are competitive. Shouldn't the Twins be trying to improve the immediate product on the field so that the fans have something more exciting to watch than an outfield of Bigley, Mastroianni and Revere? Shouldn't they be trying to sign good players who they might be able to flip at the deadline for even more prospects? You complain about signing old players who won't be a part of the future. Here is a list of 2013 FA's who are 28 or younger and will be in their prime a few years from now:

BJ Upton
Zach Greinke
Melky Cabrera
Delmon Young

That's it. 4 guys. 3/4 of those guys are going to get BIG contracts and the 4th one is Delmon freaking Young. You just can't sign young guys who will be in their prime years from now to relatively small deals and the Twins can't afford another $100M contract on top of Mauer. No the Twins have the right idea in free agency. Get the value from the players you sign on short term deals up to 3 years. That way in 3 years when you're competitive you can decide where you need that money to be spent. At that point maybe you do go out and pick up a Zach Greinke equivalent who is in his prime where you're going to get good use out of all 4 or 5 years of it instead of 1 or 2.

2) This whole section means absolutely nothing. It means even less when applied to Twins baseball by a fan. Sure it's great as a sound bite but when you get right down to it it has no meaning.

diehardtwinsfan
07-26-2012, 01:00 PM
The current state of the Twins isn't nearly as rosy as you make it seem.


Perhaps, but it isn't nearly as bad as others here make it seem. People seem to forget that team has played .500 ball since May. Plouffe has replaced Valencia, Mauer looks more like the Mauer of old, and Morneau has improved on his April start as well. Dozier and Parmalee both are showing lots of promise and there's 3 guys in AA right now who all look like they could contribute sometime next year. I'm not saying they have a top 5 offense or anything, but I am saying that the offense is built to win games... It certainly isn't their pitching that's been consistenly coming through for them.

USAFChief
07-26-2012, 01:18 PM
I don't think you have to go Houston with this team. I still think they have the resources to compete in 2013 if management/ownership have the smarts and nads to do it.

Im really not interested in starting a neverending five yr plan and being the new KC Royals.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 01:22 PM
I still think they have the resources to compete in 2013 if management/ownership have the smarts and nads to do it.


Which we all know won't happen, so were right back to where we were.

DAM DC Twins Fans
07-26-2012, 01:24 PM
Perhaps, but it isn't nearly as bad as others here make it seem.

Actually this team is far from a contender. Mauer, Span, Morneau (as long as he stays healthy), Willingham/Doumit (offense only) are all MLB players. Diamond is the only consistent quality starter. Bullpen OK but not as good as 3-4 years ago. Revere, Dozier, Parmalee, Plouffe could all become MLB players but probably only 2 will. Benson, Hicks, etc. may replace Doumit/Willingham in 2014 as we build to a contender.

Thats it--do you trade a prospect like Hicks?? Do you trade Willingham/Span/Morneau now when value high?? If you do you must get a player (pitcher) who will help in 2014. Liriano wont get that kind of value--given Willingham's lack of defense and Mornaeu's history not sure they will get value either. I think Ryan knows this.

JB_Iowa
07-26-2012, 01:58 PM
Perhaps, but it isn't nearly as bad as others here make it seem. People seem to forget that team has played .500 ball since May.

I keep reading that phrase (mostly from SOVD) but here's the problem:

2011 (through the date given)
4/30: 9-17
5/31: 17-36 May record: 8-19
6/30: 34-45 June record: 17-9
7/25: 47-55 July record: 13-10


2012
4/30: 6-16
5/31: 18-32 May record: 12-16
6/30: 32-45 June record: 14-13
7/25: 40-58 July record: 8-13

I took the numbers from www.baseballreference.com (http://www.baseballreference.com) so I hope they are right.

Do you see any similarities? Maybe the 2012 team is showing steady "improvement" but maybe the similarities just reflect the timing of interleague play, etc.

While I hope that the 2012 team won't have an historic collapse to match that of the 2011 team, there isn't a lot to indicate to me that it won't happen. Ironically, the 2012 team has been relatively fortunate on the injury front on position players -- there could still be some hits to come.

People shouldn't forget that this team has played .500 ball since May but they shouldn't ignore last year's results either.

I was in favor of a controlled burn in October 2010. Unfortunately the Twins gave us Nishioka for Hardy and 2 more years of Pavano. I'm not sure that they can right this thing without getting out the dynamite.

twinsnorth49
07-26-2012, 02:16 PM
What people don't seem to realize is that many more things have gone right than they have gone wrong. Willingham is having a career year. Mauer is healthy and having an outstanding season. Morneau is back and semi-capable. Plouffe had a breakout. Revere is having a breakout. Doumit is healthy and hitting very well. Diamond, Burton, Perkins, and Burnett are pitching some great ball.

When you compare that to the wrongs - Baker hurt, Pavano hurt, Capps hurt, Blackburn garbage. (Maybe one or two others I'm forgetting) - this team is actually a bit lucky they aren't WORSE.

I'm encouraged by some of Ryan's interviews the last few Sundays. He appears to get that this team isn't as good as some think and they're way further off than a pitcher or two.

This x 2

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 02:26 PM
Which we all know won't happen, so were right back to where we were.

You keep saying that but it is anything but clear. As far as I can remember the Twins have never been in the position they're in right now. They have a historically bad starting rotation. Only Blackburn has a contract committment for next season. They have $20-30 million to put back into the club. They have little guaranteed starting pitching help available in the Minors for the next several years. Yes, maybe Gibson and Wimmers can come back but neither at this point (or even in the offseason) are going to be a sure thing to build around. That leaves you with Diamond, who I think we can all agree is going to keep seeing his ERA move in the direction of 4, and Blackburn, as much as nobody wants to admit it he'll get a shot again next year. The Twins are going to have to go out and get pitching help. And before you say it, veteran free agents on a 1 year deal doesn't help because the starting pitching is a problem long term. They're going to have to sign multiple pitchers and atleast 1 of those is going to have to be 3+ years.

CDog
07-26-2012, 03:31 PM
This x 2

Then my reply to that post x 2, too!!! Haha.

CDog
07-26-2012, 03:37 PM
You keep saying that but it is anything but clear. As far as I can remember the Twins have never been in the position they're in right now.

I keep thinking that, too, but haven't really found the right place to mention it. (For the record, the "that" mentioned in the post quoted was the notion that the "we know" the Twins won't spend any/enough/lots of money this off-season.) But you're right, there really isn't any history to give a guide here. Comparing to Metrodome years is obviously silly since the overall payroll has vastly increased. I also don't know that we've got much knowledge on how and when and in what ways the new Pohlad may be different than Carl. As for New Ballpark History, the first off-season in Target Field is not even close to a good comparison because the first season was a division winner. And last off-season was much, much different in that four expected starting pitchers were already under contract and coming back. So yes, I'd say this is uncharted territory.

TheLeviathan
07-26-2012, 08:39 PM
Even if the Twins do have money to spend, nothing says you can't bank that for a future increase. It's not typically a PR dream, but spending it just to spend it doesn't help much either. This team should take some flyers next season on guys like we did with Burton last year, but planning to fix this team with a few contracts is a big mistake.

snepp
07-26-2012, 09:03 PM
Haven't there been quotes from TR in the past saying that they don't roll any budget room forward?

TheLeviathan
07-26-2012, 09:11 PM
Haven't there been quotes from TR in the past saying that they don't roll any budget room forward?

If so, that is ridiculous. But I wouldn't be surprised.

snepp
07-26-2012, 09:16 PM
If so, that is ridiculous. But I wouldn't be surprised.

Take it with a massive grain o' salt, my recollection is incredibly vague.

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 10:02 PM
Even if the Twins do have money to spend, nothing says you can't bank that for a future increase. It's not typically a PR dream, but spending it just to spend it doesn't help much either. This team should take some flyers next season on guys like we did with Burton last year, but planning to fix this team with a few contracts is a big mistake.

It isn't about spending money just to spend the money. It's about helping this team in the short term through free agency, hopefully helping this team in the mid-term if you find the right deals or potentially helping this team in the long term through flipping those FA's for prospects. Along the way you improve the product to the point where you don't lose 100 games which is a very real possibility if the Twins firesale, reduce payroll and don't sign any decent free agents.

TheLeviathan
07-26-2012, 10:18 PM
It isn't about spending money just to spend the money. It's about helping this team in the short term through free agency, hopefully helping this team in the mid-term if you find the right deals or potentially helping this team in the long term through flipping those FA's for prospects. Along the way you improve the product to the point where you don't lose 100 games which is a very real possibility if the Twins firesale, reduce payroll and don't sign any decent free agents.

The kinds of FA splashes you're talking about aren't 50M+ kinds of deals. I don't have a problem with a few Willingham-like contracts, but people aren't talking about that. The focus of this team should be acquiring assets around our best prospects, not hoping 88 losses keeps more fans in the seats than 98. That is a useless, misguided strategy which is all anyone here is suggesting. As has been said by others - winning puts butts in the seats, so build to win - not keep your head above total futility.

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 11:24 PM
The kinds of FA splashes you're talking about aren't 50M+ kinds of deals.

Please enlighten me on what I am thinking and talking about. You clearly have no idea what I have been saying here or in other threads. Your post on the other hand seems to either be poorly articulated or not well thought out.


The focus of this team should be acquiring assets around our best prospects, not hoping 88 losses keeps more fans in the seats than 98. That is a useless, misguided strategy which is all anyone here is suggesting. As has been said by others - winning puts butts in the seats, so build to win - not keep your head above total futility.

So winning helps put butts in the seats but winning 74 games doesn't matter we should instead cut payroll and win 60? The focus should be on acquiring assets but we should still cut payroll and not spend in FA? Why can't you do both? Why can't you trade Morneau, Span, Willingham, Carroll and other veterans that are worth something over the next year and replace them with a combination of minor leaguers as they are ready AND sign FA's that complement those pieces in the midterm and will help keep this team from absolutely cratering in the short term? If those veterans then become expendable, either because like Willingham they play exceptionally well and have great value, or because we have a prospect develop to replace them maybe a couple get flipped for more prospects which then helps us in the long term.

mike wants wins
07-27-2012, 08:38 AM
Given that they cut payroll this year, I see no evidence that they are willing to pay the price in dollars and years to sign big time, or even average, starting pitching.

DPJ
07-27-2012, 09:14 AM
Given that they cut payroll this year, I see no evidence that they are willing to pay the price in dollars and years to sign big time, or even average, starting pitching.

That's part of the problem, they won't break the bank of a Greinke type arm and a Jackson or Sanchez signing does nothing but make this team a little less worse.

Brock Beauchamp
07-27-2012, 09:24 AM
That's part of the problem, they won't break the bank of a Greinke type arm and a Jackson or Sanchez signing does nothing but make this team a little less worse.

Zack Greinke hasn't been a very good pitcher lately. There's a chance that a Sanchez or Jackson performs just as well as him for 1/2 to 2/3rds the price. They're all the same age.

mike wants wins
07-27-2012, 09:26 AM
I don't they'd sign those guys either "well, tehy got 5 year deals, we just don't want to give pitchers 5 year deals, they get hurt and stuff....". Then they'll sign the guys that are willing to sign for 1-3 years, you know, 38 year old has beens, and 28 year old never weres. I'll believe they do something different, when they give us evidence they will do something different. So far, they've signed old guys for less money than the guys they replaced made. Classic Twins.

DPJ
07-27-2012, 09:37 AM
Zack Greinke hasn't been a very good pitcher lately. There's a chance that a Sanchez or Jackson performs just as well as him for 1/2 to 2/3rds the price. They're all the same age.

Small sample size much?

Brock Beauchamp
07-27-2012, 09:40 AM
Small sample size much?

Greinke has an ERA+ of around 106-108 in his past 510 innings.

DPJ
07-27-2012, 09:58 AM
Greinke has an ERA+ of around 106-108 in his past 510 innings.


I don't put much stock into Zack's 2010 as he was completly checked out on a bad Royals team. Not how you would like to see a professional handle his ****, but nevertheless it happened.

In 2011 he was saddled with a .318 BABIP and even this year his BABIP is .326. I think Zack's just fine and far and away better then Jackson and Sanchez.

Brock Beauchamp
07-27-2012, 10:01 AM
I don't put much stock into Zack's 2010 as he was completly checked out on a bad Royals team. Not how you would like to see a professional handle his ****, but nevertheless it happened.

In 2011 he was saddled with a .318 BABIP and even this year his BABIP is .326. I think Zack's just fine and far and away better then Jackson and Sanchez.

He's also falling apart this season. While you may be okay with ignoring almost three full seasons of pitching, I won't do it. I'd much rather see the Twins target a second tier pitcher like Sanchez or Jackson and get them for 3-4 years at $12-14m per season instead of the 5+ years and $16m+ per season Greinke might demand on the FA market.

Zack has been riding his Cy Young season for three years now and hasn't come anywhere close to repeating that performance (according to ERA+, he has been literally half the pitcher he was in 2010). Why on earth would you want to get into a bidding war on a player who is riding a name instead of performance?

DPJ
07-27-2012, 10:05 AM
Zack has been riding his Cy Young season for three years now and hasn't come anywhere close to repeating that performance (according to ERA+, he has been literally half the pitcher he was in 2010). Why on earth would you want to get into a bidding war on a player who is riding a name instead of performance?

Well who the hell is gonna repeat an ERA+ 205 He's been saddled with some bad luck over the lack couple seasons but give me around 8.2 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9 anyday of the week over Jackson and Sanchez.

Brock Beauchamp
07-27-2012, 10:09 AM
Well who the hell is gonna repeat an ERA+ 205 He's been saddled with some bad luck over the lack couple seasons but give me around 8.2 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9 anyday of the week over Jackson and Sanchez.

I don't expect him to repeat his 2010 but I do expect him to be a better than league average pitcher... Which he's barely been for almost three full seasons, two of them in the mighty National League.

Also, Sanchez has a 2.9/9.3 and 2.5/8.2 BB/K per 9 innings the past two seasons.

At this point, he's not much different than Greinke and he should be a hell of a lot cheaper, both in years and money per year.

DPJ
07-27-2012, 10:17 AM
If you choose to ignore the bad luck he's had the last two seasons that's your own problem. He's been better then league average and has a nice ERA+ 120 even while being saddled with a high BABIP.

TheLeviathan
07-27-2012, 10:20 AM
Please enlighten me on what I am thinking and talking about. You clearly have no idea what I have been saying here or in other threads. Your post on the other hand seems to either be poorly articulated or not well thought out.

By all means provide details and contracts. It'll make it that much easier for me.


The focus should be on acquiring assets but we should still cut payroll and not spend in FA? Why can't you do both?

Now who's assuming? I didn't say we had to actively cut payroll, but we don't need to actively add payroll for the sake of it either. People advocating that they need to keep throwing money out in FA are doing it not because it furthers this team ahead, but simply because they feel there is some obligation to spend the money. As I said, if they want to find a few bargains like Willingham - great. But you also start to limit your ability to do that when you turn around and deal them 5 months later. That can't really be a strategy unless you're signing guys in late February who no one else wants - in which case you aren't handing out big money anyway.

Brock Beauchamp
07-27-2012, 10:26 AM
If you choose to ignore the bad luck he's had the last two seasons that's your own problem. He's been better then league average and has a nice ERA+ 120 even while being saddled with a high BABIP.

It's more than bad luck. His fastball is down over 1 MPH from 2009. His slider is down over 2 MPH. His changeup is over 1 MPH faster (though it's hardly his out pitch and he throws it less than 10% of the time). His LD% in the past two seasons is 3-4% higher than it was during his good seasons.

Greinke is still a good pitcher but his peripherals are moving the wrong direction. For a guy whose last real, sustained success was in 2009, that's a bad sign. It's a doubly bad sign because so many teams are tripping over themselves to placate their fanbases and sign the guy for too much money. No thanks. Give me a guy who has a shot to put up similar numbers for half the overall price.

DPJ
07-27-2012, 10:37 AM
It's more than bad luck. His fastball is down over 1 MPH from 2009. His slider is down over 2 MPH. His changeup is over 1 MPH faster (though it's hardly his out pitch and he throws it less than 10% of the time). His LD% in the past two seasons is 3-4% higher than it was during his good seasons.

Greinke is still a good pitcher but his peripherals are moving the wrong direction. For a guy whose last real, sustained success was in 2009, that's a bad sign. It's a doubly bad sign because so many teams are tripping over themselves to placate their fanbases and sign the guy for too much money. No thanks. Give me a guy who has a shot to put up similar numbers for half the overall price.


I'm personally not gonna trip about a losing 1 mph over 3 years? That's gonna happen to alot of pitchers. Plus Geinke was never a guy who relied on velocity so I personally don't think it's a big deal.

"Last real success was 2009" Are you ****ing kidding me? Saddled by a high BABIP...you ignore. Saddled by a horse**** defense in Milwaukee...you ignore. If you don't want the Twins to sign Greinkie that's fine, it's not like it was gonna happen either way. But don't go off on some bull**** about last year success and peripherals going the wrong way while you openly choose to ignore some pretty loud stats that have hurt his numbers.

Brock Beauchamp
07-27-2012, 10:42 AM
I'm personally not gonna trip about a losing 1 mph over 3 years? That's gonna happen to alot of pitchers. Plus Geinke was never a guy who relied on velocity so I personally don't think it's a big deal.

"Last real success was 2009" Are you ****ing kidding me? Saddled by a high BABIP...you ignore. Saddled by a horse**** defense in Milwaukee...you ignore. If you don't want the Twins to sign Greinkie that's fine, it's not like it was gonna happen either way. But don't go off on some bull**** about last year success and peripherals going the wrong way while you openly choose to ignore some pretty loud stats that have hurt his numbers.

First, chill the hell out.

I'm not ignoring anything. Greinke has had a high BABIP. He's also had that high BABIP for multiple seasons... at some point, you have to start considering that it might be due to more than bad luck.

You're the one making excuses for Greinke. I'm the one saying that I don't think he'll ever be anything close to the same pitcher he was in 2009 but that teams are still going to pay him because of that season. And no matter how you shake it out, that's not a smart game for a mid-market team to start playing in the FA market. I'm not saying that Greinke is a lemon or that he won't continue to be a decent pitcher. But after the last few seasons' mediocrity combined with his complete freakin' meltdown this month, that's not a player I want to throw $100m at over five years.

DPJ
07-27-2012, 10:51 AM
You're the one making excuses for Greinke. I'm the one saying that I don't think he'll ever be anything close to the same pitcher he was in 2009 but that teams are still going to pay him because of that season. And no matter how you shake it out, that's not a smart game for a mid-market team to start playing in the FA market. I'm not saying that Greinke is a lemon or that he won't continue to be a decent pitcher. But after the last few seasons' mediocrity combined with his complete freakin' meltdown this month, that's not a player I want to throw $100m at over five years.

I don't think he'll come close to 2009 again either cause that's one of the great pitching seasons in the history of baseball. The bottom line is I think Greinke would do wonders for the Twins, he's young, he's stayed healthly (unlike Sanchez) I think the Minnesota market would be a good place for him over larger markets on the coasts and he's a really good pitcher. The Twins aren't gonna sign him and I've already resigned myself to that. But will I take 45-50 million for Jackson or Sanchez or 100 million for Greinkie...well I'll take the 100 million.

Oxtung
07-27-2012, 11:33 AM
Now who's assuming? I didn't say we had to actively cut payroll

I guess I just got confused because you did just that ...


The focus of this team should be acquiring assets around our best prospects
or

No reason to grasp at phantom 2013 straws is my position - rebuild around the future of your minor league system.
or

This club has to make some significant changes and it has to start with unloading just about everyone


People advocating that they need to keep throwing money out in FA are doing it not because it furthers this team ahead, but simply because they feel there is some obligation to spend the money.

One time wasn't enough? You thought you'd double down and tell me what I'm thinking a second time? I find that ironic since I showed in general terms how spending in FA could potentially help you in the short, mid and long terms.

Alright, I'm done with this discussion. I find it insulting that you are telling me what I think about things. I'll just leave it at this; burning the Twins to the ground and then not spending in FA is a poor strategy. It might help the Pohlad's pocketbook but it sure doesn't help the Twins and even more it insults all the Twins fans who spend $50 for a ticket, beer and hot dog.

TheLeviathan
07-27-2012, 11:53 AM
One time wasn't enough? You thought you'd double down and tell me what I'm thinking a second time? I find that ironic since I showed in general terms how spending in FA could potentially help you in the short, mid and long terms.

Are you on drugs? Nothing was suggested about what you said - in fact - I asked you to be more specific. Don't cower behind being "general" and then get your panties in a wad when things are spoken about generally. So, again, be specific please. You waded into a general conversation yourself, what's insulting is to have you play this scolded puppy routine and then chop up quotes to make your point.

I'm a season ticket-holder, I'm not thrilled about the idea about the Pohlads pocketing money (as I suggested that any funds not spent should be carried forward. And how I disagree strongly if that is against Pohlad policy) But NOTHING I said had anything to do with dumping money. It's not about unloading payroll - if that happens it's merely a byproduct of the real focus. In fact, since you continue to assume, I wouldn't even consider moving the Twins top two earners. I think their value is either too low to achieve what I said (acquiring assets) or can be part of the team later (when our best prospects arrive).

This is about dealing Span who will be displaced, Willingham who is having a career year and is 33, Liriano who is a bad investment, Burton, Carroll, Pavano, Capps, and anyone else that would qualify as having value that can A) acquire assets to build around or B) will not be part of the team when our best prospects arrive. To bypass on doing any of this in the name of 10 wins/losses in 2013 or about the bottom line on the payroll next year is stupid. It's bad planning and it will only hurt the team's future. The only investments I make into offseason FA are guys that I can sign for below market contracts (thus making them more tradeable) or that are young and capable of helping the team for many years into the future.

Congrats on wildly twisting the point though. Bang up job. (Even more amusing that you did it by hypocritically complaining about words being put in your mouth)

diehardtwinsfan
07-27-2012, 11:53 AM
That's part of the problem, they won't break the bank of a Greinke type arm and a Jackson or Sanchez signing does nothing but make this team a little less worse.

I know this is a bit off topic, but I'm really curious what you think in terms of who should be in the long term plans and who should not. I go through the roster and I see a team with a lot of talent missing some key pitching pieces. You see a perpetual 100 loss team. What exactly would you blow up?

C- Mauer - star, locked in long term. Peforming well above average
1B - Morenau, gone after 2013, not doing well, but is showing signs of life. Parmalee - took some lumps in his first go around, but looking like a middle order bat. Will replace Morneau eventually.
2B - Casilla, league average at best.. but in general, crap. needs improvment. Also starting to get expensive. Carrol, a bit pricey and under contract for a year. Average at best.
SS - Dozier - taking some lumps and presently below average, but is improving. It looks like he'll be an average or better SS, and his minor league nubmers back it up. Cheap and here for a while.
3B - Plouffe - looks to produce well above average at this position. Cheap and here for a while.
LF - Willingham. Well above average and on a reasonable contract. Locked up for 2 more years.
CF - Span - Above average and on a reasonable contract. OF of the future currently sitting in AA. Locked up for 2 more years.
RF - Revere -playing well, but not well enough to be considered a long term solution. Still legit question as to whether he's a 4th OF. OF of the future currently sitting in AA. Cheap and here for a while.
DH - Doumit. .808 OPS... Probably slightly above average for that position. Locked up for 2 more years.

SP - Well below average. Signficant improvement needed here. Diamond is the only guy worth keeping around, but should be considered a back of the pen option, not a front liner.
RP - Average. Some nice cost controlled pieces (Perkins, Burton is arb eligible, Burnett, and Duensing). Could use some help.

To me, the obvious need is pitching. If Liriano wasn't a headcase in April and Baker didn't get hurt, this team would be considering buying another SP to make a run at things. This team won't be contending without some serious help on the mound. But a couple of wise FA signings, reasonable improvement from the youth, and one of Gibson/Hendricks stepping up, and this team would be a contender. I agree that it wouldn't be a 95 win team or anything of that sort, but in the weak central, they can contend. I don't think it's unfair to ask them to be a contending team in 2013. They could likely ship Morneau off and give Parmalee a full time job at first, especially if one of Hicks/Arcia/Benson is ready.

Ryan could likely plug some of those pitching holes by simply trading Liriano and Span for pitching that can step up in 2013/14 time frame. I don't see how making this a contending team can be done without grabbing some help in free agency, but in the end, this team isn't that far away. Why exactly do you just want to blow it up?

mike wants wins
07-27-2012, 12:03 PM
There is no evidence that Parmalee is a middle of the order bat. He's not on anyone's top 100 or 150 prospect list. Casilla is not league average by any stretch of the imagination. How do you conclude Dozier looks like he'll be a league average or better player, based on how he's actually played? Plouffe has 2 months of production, so did Valencia his first year.

Look, all that could go 100% the right way, but what are the odds of that?

They are going to lose 90 games for the second year in a row. They have historically bad starting pitching. They are 9th in the AL in runs scored. They are not a couple of players away.

Terry Ryan has clearly stated that the offense is not good enough as it stands now.

TheLeviathan
07-27-2012, 12:06 PM
They are not a couple of players away.

This x 100 - this is the point.

diehardtwinsfan
07-27-2012, 12:38 PM
There is no evidence that Parmalee is a middle of the order bat. He's not on anyone's top 100 or 150 prospect list. Casilla is not league average by any stretch of the imagination. How do you conclude Dozier looks like he'll be a league average or better player, based on how he's actually played? Plouffe has 2 months of production, so did Valencia his first year.

Look, all that could go 100% the right way, but what are the odds of that?

They are going to lose 90 games for the second year in a row. They have historically bad starting pitching. They are 9th in the AL in runs scored. They are not a couple of players away.

Terry Ryan has clearly stated that the offense is not good enough as it stands now.

No evidence on Parmelee? He's 24 and hitting a nice .327/.459/.570 in AAA. Those numbers would make PCL players envious and look pretty middle of the order to me, even considering a normal drop off playing in the majors full time. Let you forget, he put up some pretty nice numbers last September too against AAAA/MLB pitchers. Sure, he didn't do that his entire minor league career, but the team also overhauled his mechanics, and sometimes these adjustments take time. No one is saying he isn't a question mark, but there's plenty of good reason for optimism too.

Dozier looks... that's the key word. He's shown enough to earn some consistent PT, and while he's taken lumps he's improving. No on expects that right away, but you don't need ARod at short eitehr. League average is >.700 OPS. And his minor league career OPS is right around .800. Again, he has question marks, but there's plenty of good reason for optimism.

No one is saying they will all go 100% the right way. It is a week division, and 100% isn't needed to compete there. What I'm saying is that there's a lot of good pieces in place. The younger players (Plouffe, Dozier, and Parmelee) will likely improve, but what we all agree is that presently the team does not have pitching. Even given Ryan's quotes, that isn't enough reason to simply blow up the team, but there's plenty of evidence that says that they have a far better chance of competing if they spend the 25M on pitching as opposed to beefing up the order.

Thrylos
07-27-2012, 12:51 PM
I know this is a bit off topic, but I'm really curious what you think in terms of who should be in the long term plans and who should not. I go through the roster and I see a team with a lot of talent missing some key pitching pieces. You see a perpetual 100 loss team. What exactly would you blow up?

C- Mauer - star, locked in long term. Peforming well above average
1B - Morenau, gone after 2013, not doing well, but is showing signs of life. Parmalee - took some lumps in his first go around, but looking like a middle order bat. Will replace Morneau eventually.
2B - Casilla, league average at best.. but in general, crap. needs improvment. Also starting to get expensive. Carrol, a bit pricey and under contract for a year. Average at best.
SS - Dozier - taking some lumps and presently below average, but is improving. It looks like he'll be an average or better SS, and his minor league nubmers back it up. Cheap and here for a while.
3B - Plouffe - looks to produce well above average at this position. Cheap and here for a while.
LF - Willingham. Well above average and on a reasonable contract. Locked up for 2 more years.
CF - Span - Above average and on a reasonable contract. OF of the future currently sitting in AA. Locked up for 2 more years.
RF - Revere -playing well, but not well enough to be considered a long term solution. Still legit question as to whether he's a 4th OF. OF of the future currently sitting in AA. Cheap and here for a while.
DH - Doumit. .808 OPS... Probably slightly above average for that position. Locked up for 2 more years.

SP - Well below average. Signficant improvement needed here. Diamond is the only guy worth keeping around, but should be considered a back of the pen option, not a front liner.
RP - Average. Some nice cost controlled pieces (Perkins, Burton is arb eligible, Burnett, and Duensing). Could use some help.



Well... you got to define long term. On the other hand, since you have Morneau on this list, looks like you are defining it as 2013, which is not long term. Add some ages next to those guys as well, and you will see that mid-term (2014-2015 only players like Mauer -because of the contract- Revere, Plouffe, maybe Dozier, maybe Burnett, maybe Perkins would fit the bill.) Long Term (2017-18) not many of those would be around. The key is to look for 2014-15 when Sano, Rosario, Arcia, maybe Buxton, Hicks would form a decent core supplemented with players like Mauer, Plouffe (probably a DH by then) etc. This is why you got to trade players that would not contribute then (Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Span etc) as soon as you get someone who could be part of that 2014-5 core, and yes, preferable a SP, because the Twins' SP then projects something like (no order) Hendriks, Gibson, Hermsen, Wimmers, Salcedo etc. I think that the pen then, because of this years and last years drafts, will be great. SO... these are my thoughts about your question. You got to build a team with a good young core surrounded by some veterans.

diehardtwinsfan
07-27-2012, 08:26 PM
Well... you got to define long term. On the other hand, since you have Morneau on this list, looks like you are defining it as 2013, which is not long term. Add some ages next to those guys as well, and you will see that mid-term (2014-2015 only players like Mauer -because of the contract- Revere, Plouffe, maybe Dozier, maybe Burnett, maybe Perkins would fit the bill.) Long Term (2017-18) not many of those would be around. The key is to look for 2014-15 when Sano, Rosario, Arcia, maybe Buxton, Hicks would form a decent core supplemented with players like Mauer, Plouffe (probably a DH by then) etc. This is why you got to trade players that would not contribute then (Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Span etc) as soon as you get someone who could be part of that 2014-5 core, and yes, preferable a SP, because the Twins' SP then projects something like (no order) Hendriks, Gibson, Hermsen, Wimmers, Salcedo etc. I think that the pen then, because of this years and last years drafts, will be great. SO... these are my thoughts about your question. You got to build a team with a good young core surrounded by some veterans.


I see your point on Morneau. My honest opinion is that they hold on to him and flip him next year at the trade deadline for another decent prospect. I suspect he'll look a lot closer to his former self at that point and should garner some interest and significantly more value. Parmelee slides into 1st and they call up whichever of Hicks/Benson/Arcia that is performing well. If two are performing well, they can either replace Revere or trade Willingham. I agree with you on 2014/15, but you can do it without making 2013 a complete disaster of a season (which I think the Twins brass wants)... They have a very nice core of hitters at that timeframe where the only place with no obvious solution is 2B and of course pitching. I don't see why they cannot be semi-competitive and flip pieces as it makes sense. Morneau would go next year. Willingham might too if the OF prospects are still looking good. I expect Span to go this year. Doumit I'd keep personally as he can hit and keeps Mauer fresh.

That said, they can pick up a few decent pitching prospects, but whether we like it or not, they are going to have to buy in the free agency market. They don't have enough in the high minors to fill that spot. By 2014 I think you can reasonably expect Hendricks and Gibson to be pitching, but whether or not those guys will be approaching their ceilings is a different story...