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View Full Version : Reds Have "Kicked the Tires" on Span



Nick Nelson
07-25-2012, 09:21 PM
According to Ken Rosenthal. (Link (http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/the_reds_like_span_but_at_what_price/11300359?new_post=true))

I said (http://twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?2000-Article-Are-Span-s-Days-in-Minnesota-Numbered) back in the beginning of July that I expected Span to be gone by the deadline and I still feel that way, even though there hasn't been a whole lot of trade buzz surrounding him up until this point. Sounds like the Reds are more interested in a short-term fix but they may eventually decide that Span's multi-year contract offers more appeal.

Seth highlighted a few Reds prospects that might interest the Twins in his trade target team profile (http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?766-Trade-Target-Team-Profile-Cincinnati-Reds) a few weeks ago.

J-Dog Dungan
07-25-2012, 09:55 PM
Any chance that if the Twins trade Span, they get two of the guys on the list from Seth's article?

gunnarthor
07-25-2012, 10:04 PM
Any chance that if the Twins trade Span, they get two of the guys on the list from Seth's article?

I think they'd have to, at a minimum. It's not like the Twins should be trading for fungible parts. If they don't get a good deal that seriously upgrades their farm system, they keep Span. They can trade him next year or the year after if they want to. If they trade Span for Didi and some C prospects, I'd be pretty upset.

John Bonnes
07-25-2012, 10:56 PM
Rosenthal mentioned Tony Cigrani as trade bait. Thoughts? His stats look outstanding.

70charger
07-25-2012, 11:24 PM
Rosenthal mentioned Tony Cigrani as trade bait. Thoughts? His stats look outstanding.

Yes!

striker_86
07-25-2012, 11:30 PM
yeah' don't dump span just to dump him. Liriano on the other hand, trade him for a bag of leaves

USAFChief
07-25-2012, 11:43 PM
Cigrani would work, obviously, but would Cincy seriously consider that? Doubtful.

PMKI
07-25-2012, 11:48 PM
Cigrani would work, obviously, but would Cincy seriously consider that? Doubtful.

Where does he rank in their system? I was looking at MLB.com's rankings and they have him as their 10th best prospect. I don't know how good MLB.com is at ranking prospects but that's where I always look.

Highabove
07-26-2012, 12:03 AM
Kicking the Tires??
What if we throw in Rust Proofing.

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 12:04 AM
A big question for Cigrani is what will his 3rd pitch be like. He was a reliever in college and has a good fastball and slider but he has to develop another pitch or two. He could be dominating the low majors on his FB/SL alone. Anyone hear anything?

gunnarthor
07-26-2012, 12:14 AM
Where does he rank in their system? I was looking at MLB.com's rankings and they have him as their 10th best prospect. I don't know how good MLB.com is at ranking prospects but that's where I always look.

He's having a bit of a break out season. Sickels ranked him #94 (not counting recent draftees) in his midseason write-up (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update). Although he had two other Red pitchers - Corcino (61) and Stephenson (63) higher. Honestly, for Span I'd want two of those pitchers in a package. If not, keep Span.

Nick Nelson
07-26-2012, 12:55 AM
Span has a sub-.700 OPS dating back to 2010. Even now, relatively healthy, he's not looking like a star player. If people are expecting to get back another org's top pitching prospect, I think they're going to be disappointed.

USAFChief
07-26-2012, 01:01 AM
He's having a bit of a break out season. Sickels ranked him #94 (not counting recent draftees) in his midseason write-up (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update). Although he had two other Red pitchers - Corcino (61) and Stephenson (63) higher. Honestly, for Span I'd want two of those pitchers in a package. If not, keep Span.

Have you watched Span at all? He's a nice player and all, with a good contract, but I think we need to acknowledge the .390 OBP guy of '08 and '09 hasn't been there for 3 yrs now. He plays a decent CF, but he's not elite. He really doesn't steal bases much any more...in fact he probably should try less often. There are at least minor reasons to be concerned about long term health issues.

I like Denard Span, but I think we need to look at him through the eyes of another GM. Would you want JR to give up 2 of your top minor league pitching prospects for him?

If there's one thing the Twins can probably afford to deal, it's an OFer. Cigrani would be a fair deal, I think. A pitcher with stuff, and promise, LHer to boot, that has reached AA. I don't think you'll get better than that.

raindog
07-26-2012, 01:31 AM
Yep, I'd pretty much trade Span for Cigrani, straight up. Not that I undervalue Span. I just think Cigrani could be a stud.

gunnarthor
07-26-2012, 06:46 AM
Have you watched Span at all? He's a nice player and all, with a good contract, but I think we need to acknowledge the .390 OBP guy of '08 and '09 hasn't been there for 3 yrs now. He plays a decent CF, but he's not elite. He really doesn't steal bases much any more...in fact he probably should try less often. There are at least minor reasons to be concerned about long term health issues.

I like Denard Span, but I think we need to look at him through the eyes of another GM. Would you want JR to give up 2 of your top minor league pitching prospects for him?

If there's one thing the Twins can probably afford to deal, it's an OFer. Cigrani would be a fair deal, I think. A pitcher with stuff, and promise, LHer to boot, that has reached AA. I don't think you'll get better than that.

By most metrics, Span does play an elite CF. His OBP isn't as high as it was a few years ago but his value, if you trust WAR (either version), is higher. He also happens to fix a huge hole for the Reds. Cigrani is a nice prospect and all but he isn't a top 100 prospect, it isn't a certainty that he'll stay in the rotation and his upside is probably a #3 type pitcher. That's nice and all but isn't worth losing Span for.

diehardtwinsfan
07-26-2012, 07:59 AM
Rosenthal mentioned Tony Cigrani as trade bait. Thoughts? His stats look outstanding.

This is the type of pitcher the Twins should be looking at... High upside and doing quite well in AA. There's some risk here that he never develops the feel for a 3rd pitch, but I do think that letting Cueller have at him in Rochester might be a wise move. Given the risks, I suspect the Twins might be able to pry a high ceiling low A guy away from the Reds as well... Not a bad hual, and I'd do it in a second. Perhaps a package with Liriano might get another decent AA pitcher to boot.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-26-2012, 10:34 AM
Span and Liriano for Hamilton and Cigrani.

mike wants wins
07-26-2012, 10:44 AM
Hamilton is not being traded, I just don't see that at all....

DPJ
07-26-2012, 11:23 AM
Is Span really that big of an upgrade over Stubbs that it's worth giving up a solid prospect or two?

gunnarthor
07-26-2012, 11:35 AM
Is Span really that big of an upgrade over Stubbs that it's worth giving up a solid prospect or two?

Yeah, Stubbs has been horrible and the Reds really need a quality leadoff hitter and another LH bat. Reds leadoff hitters have a .248 OBP! NL avg is .316.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 11:41 AM
Stubbs -.668 OPS
Span - .731

No doubt Span is the hitter player right now, but if the upgrade that large that you would give up a top prospect. Is the gain really that large?

Nick Nelson
07-26-2012, 11:43 AM
CINGRANI***!

Goodness, every single person on this thread has spelled it wrong. The lesson here is to never follow Bonnes' lead when it comes to spelling. :)

gunnarthor
07-26-2012, 01:37 PM
Stubbs -.668 OPS
Span - .731

No doubt Span is the hitter player right now, but if the upgrade that large that you would give up a top prospect. Is the gain really that large?

Yeah, it is. His defensive value/baserunning etc make him about twice as valuable as Stubbs. Plus, Stubbs is coming into his arbitration years where Span has the more team friendly contract.

mike wants wins
07-26-2012, 01:51 PM
A 70 point difference in OPS is massive.

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 02:07 PM
A 70 point difference in OPS is massive.

Hyperbole much? While a difference it is nowhere near "massive".

John Bonnes
07-26-2012, 02:21 PM
The lead off hitters for the Reds combined have an OBP of around .250. That is not a typo. Span would be a huge upgrade for them.

DPJ
07-26-2012, 02:26 PM
If I were the Reds I'd rather just give up a lower level prospect for Juan Pierre then give up something larger for Span. I don't think he's that massive up an upgrade to give up a solid arm for. NTM I've always been a huge Stubbs fan and believe he'll figure it out. He's always gonna have some contact issues, but I still really like him.

Brock Beauchamp
07-26-2012, 02:36 PM
Hyperbole much? While a difference it is nowhere near "massive".

It's the difference between a 79 OPS+ and a 105 OPS+. Stubbs is putting up that OPS in the Great American Bandbox while Denard is doing it at Target Field.

That's massive.

mike wants wins
07-26-2012, 02:42 PM
Yup, after checking Fangraphs, I'm even more sure the difference is massive. Not to mention Denard has a very nice contract. Put him in a smaller stadium, and he's even better, offensively and defensively.

Winston Smith
07-26-2012, 02:44 PM
I'd add Burton to Span and ask for Corcino or Cingrani and Didi.

Brock Beauchamp
07-26-2012, 02:45 PM
Yup, after checking Fangraphs, I'm even more sure the difference is massive. Not to mention Denard has a very nice contract. Put him in a smaller stadium, and he's even better, offensively and defensively.

Yep, it should be noted that even OPS+ is slanted in favor of Stubbs in this case (and a 79 to 105 OPS+ difference is already "massive"). Cincinnati's second-ranked pitching staff is skewing the results in GAB compared to Minnesota's 29th-ranked pitching staff in TF.

nicksaviking
07-26-2012, 03:09 PM
The Reds already have four quality starters under the age of 26 and that's assuming they don't give Chapman a chance to start next year. It might sound rediculous, but along with Sulbaran, they have three stud arms in AA and may have nowhere for them to go in the next year. Dealing one of them for a long-term upgrade to the leadoff and CF spots is probably something they should be willing to do.

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 04:15 PM
Yup, after checking Fangraphs, I'm even more sure the difference is massive. Not to mention Denard has a very nice contract. Put him in a smaller stadium, and he's even better, offensively and defensively.

I guess we'll just have to disagree about what the definition of "massive" is. To me "massive" would be Willingham's .957 OPS and 157 OPS+. I understand and agree that Span would be an upgrade and obviously his OBP and OPS would be upgrades. My only point is that .07 OPS isn't "massive" and blowing things out of proportion to make a point doesn't help further a discussion.

Great American Ball Park isn't any smaller than TF in CF. It's proportions are just different. It's slightly shallower at straight away center but it is slightly deeper in left center and right center. Spans defense should play about the same. On a purely hypothetical note a playing in a smaller stadium would actually reduce a players defensive impact. The larger the area to cover the better the defense is required and the more you can show off just how good you are.

ashburyjohn
07-26-2012, 04:23 PM
A pitcher with stuff, and promise, LHer to boot, that has reached AA. I don't think you'll get better than that.

There's an understatement. If Ryan can pull that off, say combining Span with a throw-in, he has my further respect.

Brock Beauchamp
07-26-2012, 04:25 PM
Great American Ball Park isn't any smaller than TF in CF. It's proportions are just different. It's slightly shallower at straight away center but it is slightly deeper in left center and right center. Spans defense should play about the same. On a purely hypothetical note a playing in a smaller stadium would actually reduce a players defensive impact. The larger the area to cover the better the defense is required and the more you can show off just how good you are.

It may not be much smaller than Target Field but it plays a lot smaller. It's consistently in the top 10 in HRs allowed. It's #1 this season, even with the Reds second-best-in-baseball pitching staff (and those aren't all Reds homers, they're only 12th in baseball in homeruns as a team). In its three year history, Target Field has ranked 30th, 20th, and 18th in homers allowed. Considering that the Twins pitching staff has been second worst in baseball in the last two years, the 20th and 18th rankings are probably as high as the park will ever get.

Span hit 8 homers in his last dome season. He hasn't hit more than 3 in a season since. It's not hard to envision a world where he tacks on another 20-30 OPS points by moving to a smaller stadium. All it takes is 3-4 warning track fly balls in Target Field to turn into homeruns in the GAB to do it. Span has decent pop but Target Field is death to lefties so it doesn't show.

rogrulz30
07-26-2012, 04:41 PM
The only way I would trade Span is to the Reds. As we know the Reds are horrible at leadoff, putting Span leadoff for the next few years in Cinci is a huge upgrade. Which then puts a higher trade value for him. Span's deal to the Twins is really good, I don't understand trading Span unless we get an impact pitcher and that is hard to do. Span isn't an All Star caliber CFer, but putting in perspective what he does for the team vs. the price we pay is really big. In order to get rid of Span it really has to be a good deal, or easily just keep him.

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 04:45 PM
It may not be much smaller than Target Field but it plays a lot smaller. It's consistently in the top 10 in HRs allowed. It's #1 this season, even with the Reds second-best-in-baseball pitching staff (and those aren't all Reds homers, they're only 12th in baseball in homeruns as a team). In its three year history, Target Field has ranked 30th, 20th, and 18th in homers allowed. Considering that the Twins pitching staff has been second worst in baseball in the last two years, the 20th and 18th rankings are probably as high as the park will ever get.

Span hit 8 homers in his last dome season. He hasn't hit more than 3 in a season since. It's not hard to envision a world where he tacks on another 20-30 OPS points by moving to a smaller stadium. All it takes is 3-4 warning track fly balls in Target Field to turn into homeruns in the GAB to do it. Span has decent pop but Target Field is death to lefties so it doesn't show.

GABP might let more balls out and Span's OPS might climb by as you say. None of that will affect his defensive value though. When you get down to it what matters is how big is the area you need to cover. The bigger the area the better your defender better be. Now, there might be some difference when it comes to wind patterns and balls getting moved by air currents in stadiums, but again that really isn't an effect of the size of the stadium. Even if balls are getting blown around CF seems like it would come out close to equal in the "balls blown out of your defensive area" and "balls blown into your defensive area" game.

Chance
07-26-2012, 05:06 PM
I would do Span Liriano and Capps for hamilton and Cingrani. Heck, anyone that can be traded to make the deal happen. I would be super pumped about the twins again!

Brock Beauchamp
07-26-2012, 05:13 PM
GABP might let more balls out and Span's OPS might climb by as you say. None of that will affect his defensive value though. When you get down to it what matters is how big is the area you need to cover. The bigger the area the better your defender better be. Now, there might be some difference when it comes to wind patterns and balls getting moved by air currents in stadiums, but again that really isn't an effect of the size of the stadium. Even if balls are getting blown around CF seems like it would come out close to equal in the "balls blown out of your defensive area" and "balls blown into your defensive area" game.

Every major league OF is large enough where a defender can't cover it all. While GAB's somewhat less spacious dimensions could make OF defense slightly less important, it's not as if Span's range is suddenly marginalized. Outfield coverage isn't only about how far you can run but it's also how quickly you get there. A line drive could be hit 30 feet from the center fielder but if the guy isn't quick enough to cover that 30 feet in less than 2-2.5 seconds, that ball still drops for a hit.

Oxtung
07-26-2012, 05:36 PM
Every major league OF is large enough where a defender can't cover it all. While GAB's somewhat less spacious dimensions could make OF defense slightly less important, it's not as if Span's range is suddenly marginalized. Outfield coverage isn't only about how far you can run but it's also how quickly you get there. A line drive could be hit 30 feet from the center fielder but if the guy isn't quick enough to cover that 30 feet in less than 2-2.5 seconds, that ball still drops for a hit.

Lots of things in this post that I would like to comment on but this thread isn't really the place for it. If you, or anyone else, would be interested in having a discussion about outfield defense or how ballparks shape affects defensive play I would be interested in going down that path and seeing where we end up. I have some ideas but certainly have never given it any real in depth thought.

Until someone starts that thread I'll leave my thoughts at this:

1) Of course a defender has to cover all of his assigned outfield so outfield size does matter. You can't necessarily get to everything in the air but you still have to get there.

2) GAB and TF are roughly the same dimensions in CF so the outfield play should be equally important.

3) In baseball terms speed and distance covered are really two sides of the same coin.

drjim
07-26-2012, 06:01 PM
Span is worth more than just Cingrani.

One other option I was actually thinking was Mesoraco. I wonder if the Reds would include him in a trade if the Twins flipped back a certain beloved backup catcher.

70charger
07-26-2012, 10:41 PM
Span is worth more than just Cingrani.

One other option I was actually thinking was Mesoraco. I wonder if the Reds would include him in a trade if the Twins flipped back a certain beloved backup catcher.

I said "yes" to Span for Cingrani straight up. I say "yes, yes, YES!" to this deal. I don't think the Reds are using Mesoraco well anyway.

Also, it's been covered before, but Span plugs a huge hole for the Reds. An upgrade of .100 points in OBP (for leadoff hitters, to boot) is ridiculous, and if I'm the Reds GM, I'm thinking that kind of thing really helps me out.

Jeremy Nygaard
07-26-2012, 10:48 PM
Span is worth more than just Cingrani.

One other option I was actually thinking was Mesoraco. I wonder if the Reds would include him in a trade if the Twins flipped back a certain beloved backup catcher.

I don't think the Reds have any desire to trade Mesoraco, he's their future catcher.

And color me crazy, but I think the Mauer/Doumit/Butera is the way to go moving forward.

I read up a lot on Reds prospects last night and if the Twins could get either Cingrani or Daniel Corcino, SS Didi Gregorius and a lower-level pitcher (or Yorman Rodriguez), I think I would pull the trigger.

Brock Beauchamp
07-27-2012, 06:46 AM
And color me crazy, but I think the Mauer/Doumit/Butera is the way to go moving forward.

More importantly, how much could you possibly gain by replacing Butera with a catcher that isn't awful with a bat? The guy is only going to get ~130 PAs this season. The amount of damage he can inflict is limited.

Parise11
07-27-2012, 11:40 AM
Get it done Span for Cigrani/Stephenson and another highly rated prospect!

Vervehound
07-27-2012, 12:11 PM
cingrani would become our best pitching prospect right away but...stephenson has one of the best arms in the minors - he's flashing triple digits fairly regularly. i was hoping we could somehow pry syndergaard loose from the jays but stephenson would be a grade A plan B.

diehardtwinsfan
07-27-2012, 12:22 PM
I'd take Span for Cigrani straight up... Hard throwing lefties getting tons of Ks in AA aren't exactly easy to come by. The reds still have one other nicely rated pitching prospect too. I do think a package deal here with Span and Liriano makes sense, but I doubt the reds would want to part with that much AA talent. FWIW, Sickes graded the following guys:

Cingrani B- (though given how he's done this year, I'd think this is going to go up). #6 overall
Corcino B. #3 overall
Hamilton B+ (also top 100). #2 overall
Stephenson B. #4 overall.

Getting one of these guys would be pretty impressive. I'm doubtful we could get two unless the Reds are more desparate than I thought. They have some nice pitching depth that fits nicely with the Twins needs.

John Bonnes
07-28-2012, 12:15 AM
More Reds-Span talk. This time from current MLB.com CIN beat writer (and former MLB.com MIN beat writer) Mark Sheldon:

http://mlb.mlblogs.com/2012/07/27/reds-still-want-leadoff-help/

Shane Wahl
07-28-2012, 01:04 AM
The Reds will get Victorino.

John Bonnes
07-31-2012, 08:53 AM
The Reds will get Victorino.

According to Heyman, the Reds and Phillies are no longer talking. Maybe that opens the door for a Span deal?

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/230289400695762944

Brock Beauchamp
07-31-2012, 08:55 AM
According to Heyman, the Reds and Phillies are no longer talking. Maybe that opens the door for a Span deal?

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/230289400695762944

I think Heyman should try to find a little cornier background for his Twitter page.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-31-2012, 09:11 AM
According to Heyman, the Reds and Phillies are no longer talking. Maybe that opens the door for a Span deal?

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/230289400695762944

Wow, I am very thankful I am not a Phillies fan at this point, they have completely screwed the pooch with nearly every move they have made the past year or two.
100 million to Ryan Howard?
Overpaying Hamels.

Not trading your free agents when you have the chance? If they end up holding onto Victorino this will be a disaster for Philly.

DPJ
07-31-2012, 09:17 AM
I think Heyman should try to find a little cornier background for his Twitter page.

I'm shocked it's not a picture of his lord and savior Scott Boras.

DPJ
07-31-2012, 09:18 AM
Wow, I am very thankful I am not a Phillies fan at this point, they have completely screwed the pooch with nearly every move they have made the past year or two.
100 million to Ryan Howard?
Overpaying Hamels.

Not trading your free agents when you have the chance? If they end up holding onto Victorino this will be a disaster for Philly.


The Phillies are having the greatest run in the history of that franchise. They've been in win now mode for the last 5-6 years. When you're in win-now mode this is what happens.

Ruban has made plenty of mistakes, but I get why he did them.

alarp33
07-31-2012, 09:21 AM
Wow, I am very thankful I am not a Phillies fan at this point, they have completely screwed the pooch with nearly every move they have made the past year or two.
100 million to Ryan Howard?
Overpaying Hamels.

Not trading your free agents when you have the chance? If they end up holding onto Victorino this will be a disaster for Philly.

It sounds like Victorino is going to the Dodgers

gunnarthor
07-31-2012, 09:23 AM
The Phillies are having the greatest run in the history of that franchise. They've been in win now mode for the last 5-6 years. When you're in win-now mode this is what happens.

Ruban has made plenty of mistakes, but I get why he did them.

Agreed. It's part of the cycle if your not the Yankees. Phillies have a lot of money so they'll have some room to regroup. I'm glad their ownership went all in.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-31-2012, 09:24 AM
The Phillies are having the greatest run in the history of that franchise. They've been in win now mode for the last 5-6 years. When you're in win-now mode this is what happens.

Ruban has made plenty of mistakes, but I get why he did them.
Does this year count as part of the greatest run? They have like $100 mil tied up per year to the following players then next few seasons; Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Howard.

They are going to have a hell of a time fielding a lineup.

DPJ
07-31-2012, 10:23 AM
Does this year count as part of the greatest run? They have like $100 mil tied up per year to the following players then next few seasons; Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Howard.

They are going to have a hell of a time fielding a lineup.

Well it was going to end eventually ( even though I personally could see them winning the East next season) The Phillies were all in and this is what you get, alot of bloated contracts. They can still move Lee and that frees up some cash, they can make things happen still. It's not like they're doomed.

We'd be kneeling at the Pohlads feet if they had the same commitment to winning.

mike wants wins
07-31-2012, 10:47 AM
The Howard contract was riduculously bad. They outbid themselves, no one else was going to pay that. Just bad. I have no major issue with the Halladay and Lee signings, frankly. That is the cost of great pitching these days.

Jim Crikket
07-31-2012, 11:09 AM
Looking at what the Dodgers gave up for Victorino (from Tim Dierkes MLBTR), let me ask this... if this is the going rate for a CF and is comparable to what TR is getting offered for Span, do you take it? (Personally... I don't think so):

Martin, the Dodgers' first-round draft pick from 2008, owns a 3.58 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and 0.38 HR/9 in 118 Double-A innings this year. Drafted as a raw high schooler, Baseball America ranked Martin 17th on their Dodgers prospect list prior to the season. They wrote that Martin "maintains the ceiling of a No. 2 starter but has a long way to go."
Lindblom, 25, has a 3.02 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.70 HR/9, and 38% groundball rate in 47 2/3 relief innings this year, so he's had some issues with the longball. He doesn't have much big league service time, and is technically under team control through 2017. Drafted in the second round in '08, Lindblom was once considered one of the team's top prospects. Lindblom was made more expendable by the Dodgers' acquisition of League (https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/230302196258992128) from the Mariners last night.

Nick Nelson
07-31-2012, 11:14 AM
Have to think the Twins could command significantly more for Span, given that he's younger, having a better year and under contract for multiple seasons.

Jim Crikket
07-31-2012, 11:20 AM
Have to think the Twins could command significantly more for Span, given that he's younger, having a better year and under contract for multiple seasons.

Agree. But I'm just not seeing anyone giving up high-ceiling young pitching for anyone. Have I missed something? Looks like teams are not letting go of that kind of guy.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-31-2012, 11:20 AM
The Twins honestly may have gotten just as good of a package for Liriano.

DPJ
07-31-2012, 11:21 AM
Looking at what the Dodgers gave up for Victorino (from Tim Dierkes MLBTR), let me ask this... if this is the going rate for a CF and is comparable to what TR is getting offered for Span, do you take it? (Personally... I don't think so):

The Twins should be able to get more for Span, but Martin isn't chopped liver so I wouldn't complain.

DPJ
07-31-2012, 11:22 AM
I wonder if the fact that Stubbs has been killing the ball since June change the Reds thinking of how much they'll give up?

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-31-2012, 11:24 AM
The Twins should be able to get more for Span, but Martin isn't chopped liver so I wouldn't complain.

Martin has been a huge bust ever since getting drafted and still walks way to many people. He isn't anything special at this point, sure he has some upside but it is very unlikely that he will reach it. He was the 17th rated prospect in the org for a reason.

Thrylos
07-31-2012, 11:26 AM
Victorino is a rental. Span is under a good team friendly contract for a while. He has to be more valuable and return at least a B+ prospect plus.

70charger
07-31-2012, 11:27 AM
Have to think the Twins could command significantly more for Span, given that he's younger, having a better year and under contract for multiple seasons.

This is probably right, but it all seems to come down to what another organization has on offer. Span SHOULD get more, but if they trade him just to trade him, he probably WON'T get more. Waiting for real value is the way to go here, regardless of whether that's at 3:00 PM or in the winter meetings.

DPJ
07-31-2012, 11:29 AM
Martin has been a huge bust ever since getting drafted and still walks way to many people. He isn't anything special at this point, sure he has some upside but it is very unlikely that he will reach it. He was the 17th rated prospect in the org for a reason.

A huge bust, he's lowered his walk rate and still maintained a solid K-rate at AA. He's still got some work, but I wouldn't call him a bust by anymeans and is a damn solid pickup for 2 months of the dirty Hawaiian.

Jim Crikket
07-31-2012, 11:31 AM
This is probably right, but it all seems to come down to what another organization has on offer. Span SHOULD get more, but if they trade him just to trade him, he probably WON'T get more. Waiting for real value is the way to go here, regardless of whether that's at 3:00 PM or in the winter meetings.

I guess this was my point (made much better than I managed to). I'm not seeing teams willing to give up top pitching prospects in any deals so far, so I'm not sure why we should think someone will for Span today. If that's the case, there's no reason not to wait until the offseason to see what the market is then.

James
07-31-2012, 11:33 AM
Giants acquire Hunter Pence. When the details come out for this trade, this should give a better idea of what we should be looking for with a Span trade.

TR, you get the details and make some calls. You have 3.5 hours to get a great deal in place and have it approved by the commissioner. But only pull the trigger if it is a great deal.

Edit: I hope TR is actually on the phones trying to make some deals and not reading my posts on this site right now.

Boom Boom
07-31-2012, 11:34 AM
I guess this was my point (made much better than I managed to). I'm not seeing teams willing to give up top pitching prospects in any deals so far, so I'm not sure why we should think someone will for Span today. If that's the case, there's no reason not to wait until the offseason to see what the market is then.

I disagree with this.

Because there are more teams in contention with the extra wild card, Span's value is higher now than it will be in the offseason.

If you want to wait to build up some more value, you wait until the 2013 trade deadline.

Jim Crikket
07-31-2012, 11:40 AM
I disagree with this.

Because there are more teams in contention with the extra wild card, Span's value is higher now than it will be in the offseason.

If you want to wait to build up some more value, you wait until the 2013 trade deadline.

I don't think any team who's just in contention for a one-game WC play-in game will give away top pitching talent. Only those teams contending for Division titles will even consider it.

Blake
07-31-2012, 11:44 AM
If a team is willing to trade a starting pitcher straight up for a position player, best look closely at the pitcher or the player. (There's a reason why Tampa was willing to trade Delmon for Garza)

Anyway, Span is very good at his position and is on track to play how many games this year? Versus how many games a starting pitcher will pitch in a year?

Starting position players should never be traded straight up for a starting pitcher. An even worse trade is Span straight up for a minor league pitcher. Doesn't matter how highly rated the pitcher is, still not an established starter, unlike Span.

Boom Boom
07-31-2012, 11:46 AM
I don't think any team who's just in contention for a one-game WC play-in game will give away top pitching talent. Only those teams contending for Division titles will even consider it.

You may have a point, but if that's the case, do you think any team will give away top pitching talent in the offseason if the Twins look to trade Span then?

DPJ
07-31-2012, 11:47 AM
Giants acquire Hunter Pence. When the details come out for this trade, this should give a better idea of what we should be looking for with a Span trade.

Pence's value will have nothing to do with Span.

Philly should be happy as hell to get rid of him so they don't have to pay him 15 million next season.

gunnarthor
07-31-2012, 11:47 AM
I wonder if the fact that Stubbs has been killing the ball since June change the Reds thinking of how much they'll give up?

Yeah, I was wondering if the Reds recent hot streak (10 straight wins or so) would make them content. That could be a big problem for them b/c they aren't that good and do need to upgrade or they'll get bounced in the playoffs again. And Hamilton makes it hard for them to take on Span (I think). Not that they'd have to trade him but rather that if he doesn't stick at short, they'll have to move him to CF. So they'd rather rent than own a CFer.

James
07-31-2012, 11:58 AM
Pence's value will have nothing to do with Span.

Philly should be happy as hell to get rid of him so they don't have to pay him 15 million next season.
I would think that the Pence deal would be a closer comparison than the Victorino deal. That's all. I don't think that it will improve Span's value.

DPJ
07-31-2012, 12:00 PM
I would think that the Pence deal would be a closer comparison than the Victorino deal. That's all. I don't think that it will improve Span's value.

Pence is gonna make 15 million next season, I don't think Span will make 15 over the remainder of his contract while being a more valuable player then Pence. It's just not a good comp for any potential Span deal.

Funny how Pence goes from fetching two very good prospects in Singleton and Cosart to now people realizing that he's not that good of a player.

Jim Crikket
07-31-2012, 12:07 PM
You may have a point, but if that's the case, do you think any team will give away top pitching talent in the offseason if the Twins look to trade Span then?

The likelihood of OVERpaying isn't any better, but teams that think they may be able to improve in 2013 may kick the tires on Span (Mariners, Cubs, etc.). But you're right... I just don't think many teams will part with top pitching prospects for anyone, so expecting TR to make that kind of deal is a bit unrealistic.

James
07-31-2012, 12:09 PM
Pence is gonna make 15 million next season, I don't think Span will make 15 over the remainder of his contract while being a more valuable player then Pence. It's just not a good comp for any potential Span deal.

Funny how Pence goes from fetching two very good prospects in Singleton and Cosart to now people realizing that he's not that good of a player.
After I saw what Philly got in return for Pence, I retract my previous comments about Span comparison.

diehardtwinsfan
07-31-2012, 01:15 PM
So just throwing it out there, both of those propsects would have been nice gets for this organization.... if they had throw in a similar 3rd prospect or MI prospect, would you deal Span for that?

Thrylos
07-31-2012, 01:23 PM
So just throwing it out there, both of those propsects would have been nice gets for this organization.... if they had throw in a similar 3rd prospect or MI prospect, would you deal Span for that?

They actually got 3 prospects. The 3rd one is Twin Cities (and U of M) own Seth Rosin who is pitching pretty well in the Giants' organization. But Span should bring more.... The C is the best prospect in this deal and Span needs to bring a SP who is at least that good a prospect (B) or better likely.

shs_59
07-31-2012, 01:30 PM
Cingrani and Gregorious

for Span and Casilla

GET IT DONE TR!!!

Jim Crikket
07-31-2012, 01:33 PM
So just throwing it out there, both of those propsects would have been nice gets for this organization.... if they had throw in a similar 3rd prospect or MI prospect, would you deal Span for that?

I'm not sure if you're referring to the Victorino return or the Pence return, but either way, my answer is "no". The Twins don't need volume, they need quality. They have plenty of mid level prospects who may or may not turn in to serviceable infielders or back of the rotation starters. At this point, if they aren't able to get high-ceiling starting pitching, regardless of current level of play, there's no point in trading away a starting position player with several years left on a reasonable contract.

Thrylos
07-31-2012, 01:48 PM
there's no point in trading away a starting position player with several years left on a reasonable contract.

Sure there is if that player is at the peak of his value and the Twins have a ready in-house replacement. Both of those things are true for Span. Assuming that his value will continue to be steady or rise in the off-season is not true. Injuries etc happen. Got to trade high. But have to get better returns that what Pence and Victorino brought

nicksaviking
07-31-2012, 01:56 PM
The Marlins just got Zack Cox, BA's preseason #88 for RP Edward freaking Mujica. Ha! Good luck to any of us trying to predict trade scenarios now.

Jim Crikket
07-31-2012, 01:59 PM
Sure there is if that player is at the peak of his value and the Twins have a ready in-house replacement. Both of those things are true for Span. Assuming that his value will continue to be steady or rise in the off-season is not true. Injuries etc happen. Got to trade high. But have to get better returns that what Pence and Victorino brought

You're assuming you know he's at peak value now. That's no more "true" an assumption than any other assumption. Could he get injured? Sure. He could also go on a tear and increase his value even more. Just because one possibility fits your desire to see him traded now more than the other possibility doesn't make your assumption any more valid. It's a crapshoot either way and taking a lesser deal now just because he might get injured before the offseason would be foolish.

chavez
07-31-2012, 02:11 PM
Just saw an MLB Network that Span "Declined" a trade to the Reds. Huh?

Jim Crikket
07-31-2012, 02:15 PM
Just saw an MLB Network that Span "Declined" a trade to the Reds. Huh?

Yeah saw that Tweeted, too, and "huh?" was my first reaction.

Maybe TR got an offer that he didn't feel was a "must do", but offered Span a choice if he wanted to go to a contender right now? No idea what else it might be. Not aware he had even any partial no-trade rights.