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East Coast Twin
07-20-2012, 06:55 AM
Interesting read in the StarTribune today.

The article basically says don't expect any deadline trade to produce pitching help for 2013. Terry Ryan states the Twins look for a "high ceiling guy" in such a trade. Given that teams are unlikely to give up such a player whose also major league ready, Ryan said the best target may be a Class A pitcher.

The article also cites scouts as saying Brian Duensing has better overall stuff than Scott Diamond.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/163133146.html

Top Gun
07-20-2012, 07:47 AM
Ya, we all know that.

Twins Fan From Afar
07-20-2012, 08:02 AM
This seems like the smartest plan. Look for young, affordable starting pitchers for 2014 and beyond (the years when guys like Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and others will also hopefully be young, affordable, and playing for the Twins).

2013, though, is going to be another rough one!

mike wants wins
07-20-2012, 08:39 AM
Depressingly accurate. Next year is going to suck again.

Top Gun
07-20-2012, 08:57 AM
Another 5 years!

JB_Iowa
07-20-2012, 09:10 AM
I'm a little puzzled by why the Duensing/Diamond comment is there.

Is this a warning that Diamond might regress? We all know that is a possibility.
Is it a message to Duensing that he can do better?

I didn't think there was an exact correlation between "stuff" and pitching success -- although better "stuff" certainly helps.

Just not sure why that paragraph is there unless he just needed to say something about both of them but then couldn't complete the inference.

twinswon1991
07-20-2012, 09:28 AM
I would be happy trading Frankie for one of the new competitive balance sandwich picks that are tradeable. Get the pick in the bag now before he regresses.

This team won't be good for several years and the best way to try to acquire elite pitching is thru the draft.

Winston Smith
07-20-2012, 09:32 AM
I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.

nicksaviking
07-20-2012, 09:35 AM
I would be happy trading Frankie for one of the new competitive balance sandwich picks that are tradeable. Get the pick in the bag now before he regresses.

This team won't be good for several years and the best way to try to acquire elite pitching is thru the draft.

I'd rather the other teams draft the pitchers and begin the development process, the Twins have not proven to be very good at it as of late.

East Coast Twin
07-20-2012, 09:35 AM
I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.

That's how I read it also.

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 09:39 AM
I think it is a warning that getting by on so so stuff may not last. We have seen it before a pitcher or even hitters will look great for a time and the league will get a scouting report and they will came back to earth. Did Valencia forget how to hit or did the league find a better way to pitch him? Pitchers with so so stuff have to rely on location more and if that fine line of good location and poor location fades things can go south fast, we've seen that many times. Plouffe may be the same case no homeruns for some time, he's getting a lot fewer meatball fastballs. While his average is showing good signs the homeruns may be much farther apart from now on.

Yep. Contact guys are rarely above average pitchers for extended periods of time unless they have an absurd ground ball rate to back up the lack of strikeouts.

I fully expect Diamond to regress. I only hope that his regression isn't Blackburn-esque. I don't think it will be because his K rate is 5.1/9 (Blackburn's career high was 4.6/9 last season), which isn't completely awful, just bad.

Some guys can survive as league-average pitchers with the occasional above-average season with that kind of K rate, even if they don't induce a ton of grounders. Brad Radke was one of those guys. Diamond induces a lot of ground balls right now but even if that lets up a bit, there's a chance he will still be a serviceable pitcher.

birdwatcher
07-20-2012, 09:43 AM
Suckage is one way to look at 2013, but I see a half full glass. Why? We may see some very fun glimpses of a bright future. I'm very excited to see who, among a very promising group, shows they belong with the big club. I will choose to look for improved play from the likes of Revere, Hendriks, Plouffe, Parmelee, Dozier, Robertson, Oliveros, and others. Who will see big league time among Benson, Arcia, Hicks, Tosoni, Guerra, Hermsen, Gutierrez, Wimmers, Bromberg, Waldrop, Herrmann, and others? Will we enjoy continued improvement due to Terry Ryan's moves? Some of us have gotten some satisfaction from the improved lineup and bullpen this year. Are you at least optimistic about Sano, Rosario, Salcedo, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios, Melotakis, Goodrum, and others? It's OK to be reaistic, to expect some failures but there should be some good news too. Enjoy!

2011 was almost invariably unwatchable. 2012? Watchable quite often. 2013 is not going to suck for a lot of us, and I hope some of you choose to come along for the ride instead of looking for the inevitable sources of bad news.

twinswon1991
07-20-2012, 09:47 AM
I'd rather the other teams draft the pitchers and begin the development process, the Twins have not proven to be very good at it as of late.



Very true but I am hoping Ryan is truely an interim GM and by next draft we have a new GM and a completely overhauled scouting department.

mike wants wins
07-20-2012, 10:23 AM
I can be optimistic about 2014, bit who is going to pay target field prices to watch them lose 90 games the third year in a row. The declining attendance will create a negative feedback loop on the payroll, imo....

Thrylos
07-20-2012, 10:34 AM
Suckage is one way to look at 2013, but I see a half full glass. Why? We may see some very fun glimpses of a bright future. I'm very excited to see who, among a very promising group, shows they belong with the big club. I will choose to look for improved play from the likes of Revere, Hendriks, Plouffe, Parmelee, Dozier, Robertson, Oliveros, and others. Who will see big league time among Benson, Arcia, Hicks, Tosoni, Guerra, Hermsen, Gutierrez, Wimmers, Bromberg, Waldrop, Herrmann, and others? Will we enjoy continued improvement due to Terry Ryan's moves? Some of us have gotten some satisfaction from the improved lineup and bullpen this year. Are you at least optimistic about Sano, Rosario, Salcedo, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios, Melotakis, Goodrum, and others? It's OK to be reaistic, to expect some failures but there should be some good news too. Enjoy!

2011 was almost invariably unwatchable. 2012? Watchable quite often. 2013 is not going to suck for a lot of us, and I hope some of you choose to come along for the ride instead of looking for the inevitable sources of bad news.

This assumes that the braintrust does not go out and sign the likes of Marquis and a bunch of washed up AAA/AAAA MiLB FA Ps to add to the rotation... Unfortunately, this has been the "Twins' way". And, unfortunately, I am not confident that this club can complete unless there is infusion of new blood and ideas from top to bottom from outside the organization. The "Twins way" and the stale old people who are running the team is the root cause of the problem here. Lack of MLB-ready SPs in the organization, non-competition the last few years with one and outs before are just the symptoms...

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 10:36 AM
I can be optimistic about 2014, bit who is going to pay target field prices to watch them lose 90 games the third year in a row. The declining attendance will create a negative feedback loop on the payroll, imo....

Agreed. It's probably the biggest problem with an aggressive rebuilding plan. It's tough to get fans interested in a team again after they have been awful for 3+ seasons.

While JR says that high upside, low minors guys are the best option (and I agree with him), it's still a bitter pill to swallow.

And if this team is going to lose big in 2013, I think it's probably a good idea that everyone and everything goes. If the team has no hope next season, what is the point of keeping Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit when they're all worth something (well, maybe not Morneau)?

Unless JR has big plans for this offseason but I don't see the Twins diving into the market and making a real splash.

Dunno. Lots of variables to consider here and without knowing the overall plan, it's hard to say much of anything.

Thrylos
07-20-2012, 10:48 AM
And if this team is going to lose big in 2013, I think it's probably a good idea that everyone and everything goes. If the team has no hope next season, what is the point of keeping Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit when they're all worth something (well, maybe not Morneau)?
.

Bingo. But that is not "the Twins' way". They like to do things their own half-rear end way. I would not be surprised if Ryan picks Capps' option for 2013.



Unless JR has big plans for this offseason but I don't see the Twins diving into the market and making a real splash.
.

Ewing?

birdwatcher
07-20-2012, 11:08 AM
thrlyos, the Twins did not sign a bunch of washed up FA's in 2012, did they? Your "Twins Way" schtick is old news. The "Twins Way" is actually happenning much differently than you portray using pre-Target Field examples. What I assume is they'll sign at least one Shaun Marcum-type free agent. They'll be better. They'll be more fun to watch. They'll probably struggle to be a .500 team. But the thing that we can surely count on is that you'll ignore all the Willingham, Burton, Doumit moves and continue to use the Marquis backfire, or some other move you hate, to make your case. Yawn.

twinswon1991
07-20-2012, 12:04 PM
thrlyos, the Twins did not sign a bunch of washed up FA's in 2012, did they? Your "Twins Way" schtick is old news. The "Twins Way" is actually happenning much differently than you portray using pre-Target Field examples. What I assume is they'll sign at least one Shaun Marcum-type free agent. They'll be better. They'll be more fun to watch. They'll probably struggle to be a .500 team. But the thing that we can surely count on is that you'll ignore all the Willingham, Burton, Doumit moves and continue to use the Marquis backfire, or some other move you hate, to make your case. Yawn.


I agree with Thyros. Other than Willingham, none of the offseason signings were made to make the team better beyond 2012. The other signings were bargin bin stop gaps and in the case of Burton it turned out great. Doumit was a great signing but extending a part timer on a 100 loss team hardly makes sense. The rest of the signings were like setting money on fire buying washed up vets to fill spots that should be occupied by cheap young talent from the minors. This gets back to the main issue that TR and his scouting staff have done a horrendous job of drafting and scouting for the last 10 years.

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 12:28 PM
This gets back to the main issue that TR and his scouting staff have done a horrendous job of drafting and scouting for the last 10 years.

You keep saying it but it's still not true. The Twins have been entirely mediocre with their scouting and drafting. A mid-market team needs to be better than mediocre to compete but that still doesn't mean they've been "horrendous".

twinswon1991
07-20-2012, 12:41 PM
You keep saying it but it's still not true. The Twins have been entirely mediocre with their scouting and drafting. A mid-market team needs to be better than mediocre to compete but that still doesn't mean they've been "horrendous".

Compare the number of above replacement mlb players the Twins have drafted over the last 10 years and you may say it is worse than horrendous. The Pitching draftees have been the worst in baseball and the Twins injuries have been no worse than other teams over that span.

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 01:12 PM
Compare the number of above replacement mlb players the Twins have drafted over the last 10 years and you may say it is worse than horrendous. The Pitching draftees have been the worst in baseball and the Twins injuries have been no worse than other teams over that span.

Okay, let's look at 2002-2009. Anything past that is still up in the air.

Matt Garza. Denard Span. Glen Perkins. Ben Revere. Those are the first-rounders.

Jesse Crain. Scott Baker. Those are the second-rounders.

Brian Duensing. He's the third-rounder.

Chris Parmelee. Joe Benson. Aaron Hicks. Kyle Gibson. Those are still in the pipeline.

Again, that's mediocre. Not "horrendous".

twinswon1991
07-20-2012, 01:23 PM
Okay, let's look at 2002-2009. Anything past that is still up in the air.

Matt Garza. Denard Span. Glen Perkins. Ben Revere. Those are the first-rounders.

Jesse Crain. Scott Baker. Those are the second-rounders.

Brian Duensing. He's the third-rounder.

Chris Parmelee. Joe Benson. Aaron Hicks. Kyle Gibson. Those are still in the pipeline.

Again, that's mediocre. Not "horrendous".

Compared to other teams that is horrendous. No all stars and no long term building blocks other than Garza.

Three solid regulars: Baker, Garza and Span and a whole lot of relief pithers (dime a dozen) and replacement level guys. Revere has a chance to be more than a typical 4th OF but I am not yet convinced.

nicksaviking
07-20-2012, 01:24 PM
Yet none of those guys were drafted this decade. The guys you listed who have made it to the pros are pretty good players, but most were drafted nearly a decade ago. The Twins have only drafted two players who have made it to the majors since 2007. That's not acceptable. The ten year timeframe may paint a somewhat rosy picture, but the six year time frame is undefensable. You may say it's too soon to judge that six year window, but I don't believe it is. Of those players who may end up being contributors, there are only 3-4 for anyone to get even modestly excited about seeing at the MLB level.

mike wants wins
07-20-2012, 01:26 PM
Whether it is horrendous or mediocre, if you won't sign big time FAs to fill your holes (not replace guys you let leave, but replace lower level guys), then you have to be better than they have been. So, if your strategy stays the same, you need to get better at executing it, either with your existing staff, or new staff. So far, I've seen no change in the GM/scouting world, other than bringing back guys that have been pretty much in the scene already.

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 01:39 PM
Compared to other teams that is horrendous.

I think the Houston Astros would disagree. They've had one draft during that period that wasn't "horrendous".

The Cubs have had a string of "horrendous" drafts, much worse than the Twins.

The Padres have had worse drafts.

Again, not claiming the Twins have lit the world on fire with their drafts. But they've consistently drafted major league regulars, which is more than many other teams can claim. You should really look through some of those Cubs drafts if you want to see "horrendous".

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 01:42 PM
Yet none of those guys were drafted this decade. The guys you listed who have made it to the pros are pretty good players, but most were drafted nearly a decade ago. The Twins have only drafted two players who have made it to the majors since 2007. That's not acceptable. The ten year timeframe may paint a somewhat rosy picture, but the six year time frame is undefensable. You may say it's too soon to judge that six year window, but I don't believe it is. Of those players who may end up being contributors, there are only 3-4 for anyone to get even modestly excited about seeing at the MLB level.

I haven't liked a lot about the Twins' recent drafts but it is too early to call it for sure. Look at Trevor Plouffe. It's easy to write off a 22 year old that was drafted at 18 four years ago but you'd be foolish for doing so. It takes six years to see what you have in some of these prep players and calling them a failure before that point is folly (barring the players who completely collapse in the minors).

The Twins still have plenty of players in the pipeline from their 2006-2009 drafts that may or may not pan out. To call a draft a failure after that point when we don't even know if Hicks/Benson/Gibson/etc. will pan out is ridiculous.

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 01:45 PM
Whether it is horrendous or mediocre, if you won't sign big time FAs to fill your holes (not replace guys you let leave, but replace lower level guys), then you have to be better than they have been. So, if your strategy stays the same, you need to get better at executing it, either with your existing staff, or new staff. So far, I've seen no change in the GM/scouting world, other than bringing back guys that have been pretty much in the scene already.

Agree completely. The Twins need to do better in the draft. We can all agree on that point but some people around here need to look at how some other teams have drafted if they want to see what "horrendous" really looks like.

nicksaviking
07-20-2012, 01:56 PM
The Twins are painfully slow at development, but surely we should be able to expect more than a couple guys to take less than six years to develop especially considering that the Twins almost exclusively draft college arms at the top of the draft over the last six years. Even if someone wants to defend the scouting/drafting/development of the hitters, I don't think there is an arguement for their taste and development in pitchers.

twinswon1991
07-20-2012, 01:58 PM
I think the Houston Astros would disagree. They've had one draft during that period that wasn't "horrendous".

The Cubs have had a string of "horrendous" drafts, much worse than the Twins.

The Padres have had worse drafts.

Again, not claiming the Twins have lit the world on fire with their drafts. But they've consistently drafted major league regulars, which is more than many other teams can claim. You should really look through some of those Cubs drafts if you want to see "horrendous".


I agree the cubs have the worst but Twins are right with stros for 29th place. The Twins hage been terrible lately and many of the regulars you speak of would never make the bigs on a playoff club like the Twins should strive to be. Thats like saying the Nick Blackburn signing was solid because he has been a "regular" in the Twins rotation for 5 years.

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 02:03 PM
The Twins are painfully slow at development, but surely we should be able to expect more than a couple guys to take less than six years to develop especially considering that the Twins almost exclusively draft college arms at the top of the draft over the last six years. Even if someone wants to defend the scouting/drafting/development of the hitters, I don't think there is an arguement for their taste and development in pitchers.

You'd think we would have seen more pitching from the minors but few of those guys have panned out (Gibson going down really hurt). Outside of Gibson, I haven't been terribly impressed with their pitching drafts, especially because so many of their picks were college arms.

But pitching is only half of a draft. They've done moderately well with their position player drafts, which offsets the "where are all the pitchers?" complaints a bit.

old nurse
07-20-2012, 02:06 PM
Compared to other teams that is horrendous. No all stars and no long term building blocks other than Garza.

Three solid regulars: Baker, Garza and Span and a whole lot of relief pithers (dime a dozen) and replacement level guys. Revere has a chance to be more than a typical 4th OF but I am not yet convinced.

Span is not a building block? Scott Baker was looked at as a 3 or a 2 starting pitcher, Perkins is viewed as a potential closer, Jesse Crain was core to the bullpen, part of the closer group in Chicago. Relievers a dime a dozen? Look what other teams are paying Crain and the rest of the escapees of the Twins bullpen. All Star as a criteria if a draft is good? What the hell kind of metric is that?

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 02:07 PM
I agree the cubs have the worst but Twins are right with stros for 29th place. The Twins hage been terrible lately and many of the regulars you speak of would never make the bigs on a playoff club like the Twins should strive to be. Thats like saying the Nick Blackburn signing was solid because he has been a "regular" in the Twins rotation for 5 years.

From 2002-2009, the Astros drafted all of two quality players, Zobrist and Pence.

Yay.

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 02:09 PM
Span is not a building block? Scott Baker was looked at as a 3 or a 2 starting pitcher, Perkins is viewed as a potential closer, Jesse Crain was core to the bullpen, part of the closer group in Chicago. Relievers a dime a dozen? Look what other teams are paying Crain and the rest of the escapees of the Twins bullpen. All Star as a criteria if a draft is good? What the hell kind of metric is that?

It's the kind of metric you use when your position is indefensible. You start referencing an exhibition game where the fans elect the players.

Matt Garza and Scott Baker were damned good picks. They're essentially the same pitcher, only Garza can stay healthy. If only the Twins had the two of them anchoring this rotation...

old nurse
07-20-2012, 02:10 PM
I think the Houston Astros would disagree. They've had one draft during that period that wasn't "horrendous".

The Cubs have had a string of "horrendous" drafts, much worse than the Twins.

The Padres have had worse drafts.

Again, not claiming the Twins have lit the world on fire with their drafts. But they've consistently drafted major league regulars, which is more than many other teams can claim. You should really look through some of those Cubs drafts if you want to see "horrendous".
You forgot the amazing Mets.

old nurse
07-20-2012, 02:13 PM
The Twins should figure out which team has the best scout for finding pitchers and overpay him. In the long run it would be better than overpaying for a number 2-3 kind of free agent pitcher and slotting them as a number 1. (See Pavano)

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 02:13 PM
I'd like to take a moment to point out that the Twins 2008 draft actually was horrendous. Hicks was a good pick but they had so many first round, sandwich, and second round picks that year...

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 02:14 PM
You forgot the amazing Mets.

Ah, yes. The Mets. What a franchise.

Boom Boom
07-20-2012, 02:22 PM
I'd like to take a moment to point out that the Twins 2008 draft actually was horrendous. Hicks was a good pick but they had so many first round, sandwich, and second round picks that year...

Gutierrez is hurt now, and time will tell if he'll pan out, but I'm not a big fan of drafting a reliever that high. And Shooter Hunt has a good baseball name but was a spectacular bust.

Brock Beauchamp
07-20-2012, 02:25 PM
I'm not a big fan of drafting a reliever that high.

I don't see the point of it either unless the team sees a guy they can stretch into a starter. It's just not that hard to find relievers if you draft enough starters... Inevitably, a few of them will rotate to the pen.

Boom Boom
07-20-2012, 02:27 PM
I don't see the point of it either unless the team sees a guy they can stretch into a starter. It's just not that hard to find relievers if you draft enough starters... Inevitably, a few of them will rotate to the pen.

At the time, and admittedly I don't have a link to back this up, I believe Gutierrez was starting out of college but the Twins made it clear they intended to make him a reliever.

Tcrose3636
07-20-2012, 02:32 PM
At the time, and admittedly I don't have a link to back this up, I believe Gutierrez was starting out of college but the Twins made it clear they intended to make him a reliever.

I believe he was a closer or setup man for Miami.

gunnarthor
07-20-2012, 02:36 PM
I think it's also worth pointing out that, as bad as they've been, Slowey and Blackburn have had some good seasons as starters - they have more combined 2 WAR seasons than Joba and Hughes have had for the Yanks.

I agree with rocketpig that the Twins drafts have been iffy but it's a bit too early to write off guys like Gibson, Hicks, Benson, etc. And some of the drafts, in total, have been bad. The 1st round of the 07 draft was pretty weak.

kab21
07-20-2012, 04:09 PM
I don't understand why some are clinging to Carlos Gutierrez still. He has had bad ERA's and K:BB rates for the last 4 years. He might make it as a solid reliever but I'm not holding my breath. And yes, he was a closer in college and the Twins drafted him with the intent to be a starter but the knock on him was that he didn't any consistent secondary pitches and that is why he ended up in the bullpen in MN. FWIW the reason that he was a closer in college was because he had TJ and he wasn't ready to be a starter when the season rolled around.

The reason that the Twins had a long run was due some great drafts from '96-'01 where they landed Cuddyer, Jones, Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. Throw in Johan, Hunter and Nathan and they had an outstanding core. The big problems started in 2004 draft since they had 6 picks in the top 61 (finally Plouffe and Perkins are producing). Additionally the Twins ignored Latin America for awhile. Since then they just haven't been able to bring up reinforcements from the farm on a consistent basis. The big trades that they have made have not worked out at all. the good news is that the farm system is in pretty good shape currently although it's light on arms. And it sounds like JR is looking for some riskier but higher upside prospects instead of middling prospects.

Thrylos
07-20-2012, 07:00 PM
At the time, and admittedly I don't have a link to back this up, I believe Gutierrez was starting out of college but the Twins made it clear they intended to make him a reliever.

Other way around. They thought that he was starter material (not unlike a lot of the college relievers they drafted this year) so he started for a while. Then they scrapped that train of thought

twinzgrl
07-20-2012, 07:31 PM
Baker-hurt. Pavano-hurt. Gibson-hurt. Blackburn-trying to figure it out. Slowey-who knows? Liriano-whatever want to call it. Duensing-better in the pen. Hendriks-still a ? Diamond-a surprise. Who can make this stuff up?

Oxtung
07-21-2012, 12:31 AM
I don't see the point of it either unless the team sees a guy they can stretch into a starter. It's just not that hard to find relievers if you draft enough starters... Inevitably, a few of them will rotate to the pen.

Really? If you find someone you think would turn into a Nathan or Rivera quality reliever you don't think that's worth a high draft pick? I'm not trying to say Guttierrez had that potential coming out but if I think there is someone that has serious potential to be a dominant bullpen guy I would not have a problem picking him up. To be clear I'm also not saying we should draft a ton of bullpen arms early, just that if there is a dominant arm that you think will anchor your pen for 5 years I have no problem drafting said arm early.

snepp
07-21-2012, 12:38 AM
Funny the two names you mention, one a failed starter, the other a failed shortstop and failed starter.

Oxtung
07-21-2012, 12:50 AM
Funny the two names you mention, one a failed starter, the other a failed shortstop and failed starter.

What does that have to do with my point?

Top Gun
07-21-2012, 02:21 AM
Twins prospect Carlos Gutierrez underwent successful arthroscopic shoulder surgery on Friday.

Dr. Lewis Yocum performed the procedure, and noted that it went very well. He'll likely be sidelined for the next few weeks before he's able to begin (http://www.twinsdaily.com/#) to rehab the injury. It's unlikely he'll be available for a promotion to the Twins until rosters expand in September.


Source: Rhett Bollinger on Twitter (https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/226464453254840320)

Brock Beauchamp
07-21-2012, 09:05 AM
Really? If you find someone you think would turn into a Nathan or Rivera quality reliever you don't think that's worth a high draft pick? I'm not trying to say Guttierrez had that potential coming out but if I think there is someone that has serious potential to be a dominant bullpen guy I would not have a problem picking him up. To be clear I'm also not saying we should draft a ton of bullpen arms early, just that if there is a dominant arm that you think will anchor your pen for 5 years I have no problem drafting said arm early.

Neither Nathan nor Rivera started out as bullpen arms. That's my point.

Seth Stohs
07-21-2012, 09:18 AM
I don't mind the philosophy of trying high-quality relievers and trying them as starters. With Gutierrez, he had a mid-90s sinking FB which by itself made him a fringe big league reliever. By having him pitch all those innings as a starter, it gave him the opportunity to develop a second and a third pitch. That was really the key to it. If he develops a second pitch to go with the FB, he can be a really good MLB reliever. If he develops a 3rd quality pitch, he could be a quality MLB starter or a dominant MLB reliever. To me, it's strange that he wasn't able to develop even a second decent pitch in four years.

A lot of the big arm, college relievers they picked this year seemingly (or reportedly) already have a second pitch which should put their floors a little higher. I'm intrigued by how it will turn out.

Oxtung
07-21-2012, 12:31 PM
Neither Nathan nor Rivera started out as bullpen arms. That's my point.

I understand that and if you read my post again you see I said "...Nathan or Rivera quality relievers..." not that Nathan and Rivera were themselves college relievers. So you think that it is impossible that a college reliever could have the dominant reliever potential? I guess I'll just have to disagree with you on that but can understand from your perspective why you think picking a reliever early would be a waste of a pick.

Brock Beauchamp
07-21-2012, 01:18 PM
No, I don't think it's impossible to draft a dominant reliever, I just don't think it's a good way to use your top picks.

Oxtung
07-21-2012, 02:30 PM
No, I don't think it's impossible to draft a dominant reliever, I just don't think it's a good way to use your top picks.

Because you think it is unlikely to actually get that dominant reliever to the Bigs? Because you think other positions are so much harder to find and go so quickly that you're forced to use your high picks, and therefore implicitly always should be using your high picks, on a handful of positions? Because you think relievers are the least valuable of the position groups? Some combination of the above or none of the above?

I know you said you think you can turn the starters into relievers and get your bullpen arms that way. Certainly it seems plausible. I'm just wondering if there is more to your opinion than that.

Brock Beauchamp
07-21-2012, 02:40 PM
Probably a little of everything but mostly, I think high picks should go to higher ceiling positions. The same way I wouldn't deft a punter in the fist round in this NFL, I wouldn't draft a dedicated reliever with a high pick. If you draft enough starting pitching with upside, you'll get your relievers in there as well.

PMKI
07-21-2012, 10:53 PM
Apparently the Twins aren't letting Span go easy http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/quick-hits-yankees-span-giants-broxton-mets.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter