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MidwestMeat
07-18-2012, 02:43 PM
Are we really a bigger market and bigger revenue team than all of them awarded? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/competitive-balance-lottery-results.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+R umors%29

I'm at work = don't want to do any fangraphing

mikeee
07-18-2012, 03:47 PM
I wonder how they compute revenue?
I'd have to guess our revenue is way up with the new stadium.
Wikipedia says we are the 16th largest metro area in the country by population (2010 census)

mikeee
07-18-2012, 04:06 PM
Detroit is still ahead of us population wise...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Metropolitan_Statistical_Ar eas

Thrylos
07-18-2012, 04:54 PM
I suspect some of those formulae are complex :)

The Bay area for example is a huge market with a pretty high income level but the A's have been sucky as far as revenue goes. So is Detroit, but that area is financially depressed. Diamondbacks in that list are somewhat of a puzzle to me. And of course what'shisface would have to find a way to include the cheeseheads (his beloved former team)

diehardtwinsfan
07-18-2012, 04:58 PM
Detroit is still ahead of us population wise...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_Metropolitan_Statistical_Ar eas

yeah but everyone there is unemployed or broke... I wouldn't be shocked in the least if people are going to the game and not buying concessions and that type of thing..

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 04:59 PM
And of course what'shisface would have to find a way to include the cheeseheads (his beloved former team)

He didn't have to try very hard. Milwaukee is the smallest metro area in baseball. It's also squeezed on three sides, limiting its expanded territory: Lake Michigan on the east, Chicago on the south, Minnesota to the west.

And almost nobody lives north of Green Bay. I'd say Milwaukee not only has every right to be on that list, I'd argue they deserve the top slot.

Scheherezade
07-18-2012, 05:04 PM
He didn't have to try very hard. Milwaukee is the smallest metro area in baseball. It's also squeezed on three sides, limiting its expanded territory: Lake Michigan on the east, Chicago on the south, Minnesota to the west.

And almost nobody lives north of Green Bay. I'd say Milwaukee not only has every right to be on that list, I'd argue they deserve the top slot.

So call them the Wisconsin Brewers, they don't have any competition in the state.

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 05:06 PM
So call them the Wisconsin Brewers, they don't have any competition in the state.

They don't? Racine/Kenosha is basically as much Cubs territory as it is Brewers. The western part of the state belongs to the Twins. The Brewers basically have Madison, Milwaukee, and Green Bay. The rest doesn't add up to enough to matter.

Badsmerf
07-18-2012, 06:09 PM
They don't? Racine/Kenosha is basically as much Cubs territory as it is Brewers. The western part of the state belongs to the Twins. The Brewers basically have Madison, Milwaukee, and Green Bay. The rest doesn't add up to enough to matter.

I'd argue with that. The Western part of WI is half and half. They are Brewers fans first, and Twins fans second.

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 06:18 PM
I'd argue with that. The Western part of WI is half and half. They are Brewers fans first, and Twins fans second.

Possibly, but the only two cities of note in western WI are La Crosse and Eau Claire, which are both considered Twins broadcast zones, I believe.

Anyway, the point still stands. Milwaukee is not only the smallest MLB metro, it's also squeezed on three sides by either geography or another team.

kab21
07-18-2012, 06:31 PM
I suspect some of those formulae are complex :)

The Bay area for example is a huge market with a pretty high income level but the A's have been sucky as far as revenue goes. So is Detroit, but that area is financially depressed. Diamondbacks in that list are somewhat of a puzzle to me. And of course what'shisface would have to find a way to include the cheeseheads (his beloved former team)

The A's share the Bay area with the Giants and the A's get the Oakland part. There is no way that they aren't in the lottery. The tigers are the puzzling one as well as the Diamondbacks.

At the same time it's hard to argue that the Minneapolis/StPaul should be one of the small market areas. The Twins were low revenue for a long time because of an awful stadium deal but the TC area is a strong market.

JB_Iowa
07-18-2012, 06:58 PM
Would be interesting to see how they define "market". For example, for TV market, Iowa is included in: Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Cardinals and Royals.

So do the markets overlap?

I suspect Oakland qualifies on revenue (one of 10 lowest) and, if revenue includes TV contracts, those figures can always shift dramatically as new deals are made.

It doesn't surprise me that Minnesota would not be in the 10 lowest in either revenue or market size.

JB_Iowa
07-18-2012, 06:59 PM
Oh, and as I read it, the teams that qualify are in the 10 lowest in EITHER revenue or market size.

So you could have a big market team with lower revenues that qualifies.

Here's a link to an MLB.com article that explains it pretty well.

Looks like Detroit got into the 2nd round because their revenues were low enough to qualify for revenue sharing:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120716&content_id=35035642&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Jeremy Nygaard
07-18-2012, 07:17 PM
You're rehashing a lot of the discussion we had on this thread (http://www.twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?2300-Competitive-Balance-Lottery).

biggentleben
07-19-2012, 05:11 PM
Milwaukee (and a lot of the state of Wisconsin) are also very large supporters of the Braves, based on the previous status of the team there and their success while in Milwaukee. Typically Braves/Brewers is a very, very good draw in Milwaukee, moreso than some of their more regional competitors (Twins, Cubs, etc.).

FrodaddyG
07-19-2012, 05:15 PM
Milwaukee (and a lot of the state of Wisconsin) are also very large supporters of the Braves, based on the previous status of the team there and their success while in Milwaukee. Typically Braves/Brewers is a very, very good draw in Milwaukee, moreso than some of their more regional competitors (Twins, Cubs, etc.).
They finally found a way to capture Milwaukee's lucrative 65-and older baseball market.

Brock Beauchamp
07-19-2012, 05:58 PM
They finally found a way to capture Milwaukee's lucrative 65-and older baseball market.

It is pretty hard to pry them away from never-ending Happy Days marathons.

But don't try to sell them that Joanie Loves Chachi crap.

biggentleben
07-19-2012, 06:23 PM
They finally found a way to capture Milwaukee's lucrative 65-and older baseball market.

That or any children, grandchildren, family of that market. Pretty much spot on.

FrodaddyG
07-19-2012, 11:45 PM
That or any children, grandchildren, family of that market. Pretty much spot on.
Yes, I'm sure grandpa has talked tons of Milwaukee folk into rooting for a team ~1000 miles away that left half a century ago, instead of the one in town.

"But Ricky, these guys played here 50 years ago! Oh those were the days, I tell ya!"

biggentleben
07-20-2012, 08:42 PM
Yes, I'm sure grandpa has talked tons of Milwaukee folk into rooting for a team ~1000 miles away that left half a century ago, instead of the one in town.

"But Ricky, these guys played here 50 years ago! Oh those were the days, I tell ya!"

I'm a Braves fan because of a great-grandmother who loved Hank Aaron rather than a Twins/Royals fan as geography would say I should be. Believe it or not, regardless of geography, some families all share fandom. I know it may shock you, but it happens.

FrodaddyG
07-20-2012, 08:59 PM
I'm a Braves fan because of a great-grandmother who loved Hank Aaron rather than a Twins/Royals fan as geography would say I should be. Believe it or not, regardless of geography, some families all share fandom. I know it may shock you, but it happens.
So because it happened with you, that means "a lot of the state of Wisconsin" are "very large supporters of the Braves"?

Better inform the Red Sox that they should start slashing payroll since the Braves resided in Boston during the 40's when my great-uncle was in their farm system. Such a divided hometown fan base is certain to be a crippling blow to their popularity and ability to compete.

biggentleben
07-20-2012, 09:42 PM
So because it happened with you, that means "a lot of the state of Wisconsin" are "very large supporters of the Braves"?

Better inform the Red Sox that they should start slashing payroll since the Braves resided in Boston during the 40's when my great-uncle was in their farm system. Such a divided hometown fan base is certain to be a crippling blow to their popularity and ability to compete.

A lot of the state as in there are strong Braves fan pockets in a number of places throughout the state, and their fandom is strong as it has stayed the test of time and success of the local squad. You're trying to make it into a numbers thing, which is in no way, shape, or form what I was referring to in my statement. I have been to a number of Brewers/Braves games, and there are heavy Braves fan populations at each of those games. I would also say Wisconsin is in the top 3-4 states represented outside of Georgia on Braves message boards throughout the internet.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-20-2012, 09:53 PM
That is pretty ridiculous, the Brooklyn Dodgers were as beloved as any baseball team and you don't see a bunch of folks here rooting for the LA Dodgers. Just like you don't see a bunch of Twins fans in D.C.

Jeremy Nygaard
07-20-2012, 11:09 PM
I'm in Rapid City, SD tonight. Far west SD, mountain time zone. The hotel had two FSNs. Colorado and Midwest
I figured I'd be watching Cuddy, but Midwest had the Twins broadcast on it... so Twins territory reaches farther than I imagined.

glunn
07-20-2012, 11:15 PM
Why are people arguing about this? It makes sense that some people would remain Braves fans even many years later. Some people are just very loyal, and they teach their progeny to love the same team as they love. There are still pockets of Rams fans and Raiders fans in Los Angeles. Some people will still root for the old team even if we ever get a new team.

And why would these posters lie about being Braves fans? I believe them.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-20-2012, 11:27 PM
Why are people arguing about this? It makes sense that some people would remain Braves fans even many years later. Some people are just very loyal, and they teach their progeny to love the same team as they love. There are still pockets of Rams fans and Raiders fans in Los Angeles. Some people will still root for the old team even if we ever get a new team.

And why would these posters lie about being Braves fans? I believe them.

Nobody is denying he is a Braves fan, it was just the notion that Wisconsin is "Braves territory"

Also the Rams and Raiders moved within the past 20 years and the Raiders still play relatively close to LA. (not over 1500 miles away). The Braves moved almost 50 years ago and ended up getting new team in the area a short time later.

kab21
07-20-2012, 11:49 PM
Regardless if there are Braves fans in Wisconsin the Braves don't have a share of the Wisconsin baseball market that will factor into the draft pick lottery. I also doubt that this fractional minority impacts the baseball revenue.

Pius Jefferson
07-20-2012, 11:53 PM
Why are people arguing about this? It makes sense that some people would remain Braves fans even many years later. Some people are just very loyal, and they teach their progeny to love the same team as they love. There are still pockets of Rams fans and Raiders fans in Los Angeles. Some people will still root for the old team even if we ever get a new team.

And why would these posters lie about being Braves fans? I believe them.


I'm sure there are Braves fans in Wisconsin. How much having loyalty to a team that wasn't in your state very long and bailed is a different story.

Brock Beauchamp
07-21-2012, 09:08 AM
I'm in Rapid City, SD tonight. Far west SD, mountain time zone. The hotel had two FSNs. Colorado and Midwest
I figured I'd be watching Cuddy, but Midwest had the Twins broadcast on it... so Twins territory reaches farther than I imagined.

Geography-wise, I think Twins Territory may be the largest of any team in baseball. It has MN, part of WI, part of IA, SD, and ND. Dunno what other team would have an area that large (outside of possibly the Rockies).

Brock Beauchamp
07-21-2012, 09:13 AM
Ah, found a map. Of all the silly things, Seattle has the most territory. Who would have guessed that?

1614

JB_Iowa
07-21-2012, 09:14 AM
"Fandom" doesn't have anything to do with the competitive market lottery so it doesn't matter how many Braves fans live in Wisconsin. They aren't doing a Harris Poll to determine team allegiance before they determine the bottom 10 in market size.

According to Wikipedia (shaky but the only reference I could find that made sense here), the Twins would be the 11th smallest market. They use MSAs and define the following as the lowest 10 (from smallest to biggest): Milwaukee, Kansas City, Cleveland, Cinncinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and San Diego. They have the Mpls-SP statistical area as about 215,00+ bigger than San Diego.

Assuming Wiki is correct in how baseball defines market size, that explains why the Twins didn't qualify in the bottom 10 in market size. And, for now, with TF revenues, they aren't likely to qualify in the bottom 10 in revenue.

So the first round included those who fall within the bottom 10 in market size or revenue (they overlap so you don't end up with 20 teams).

Then Detroit slipped in the 2nd round because they received revenue sharing money last year. I'm not sure how they did that. Saw speculation in Jeremy Nygaard's thread that it was because of Detroit's TV deal but according to Phil Mackey and others, the Tigers have a TV deal that started in 2008 that is worth $40 million/year (as compared to the Twins TV deal started in 2011 worth $29 million/year).

So Detroit must have lagged significantly in other revenues to allow it to get revenue-sharing money qualifying them for the 2nd round. Apparently they need Dave St. Peter to help them capitalize on all their other revenue stream possibilities.

JB_Iowa
07-21-2012, 09:18 AM
RCP, that's the TV markets, right? That's the one that has Iowa in 6 different markets (thus giving Jim Crikket heartburn).

I'm not sure if that is how baseball is defining market size or if they are using Metropolitan Statistical Areas (where Minnesota ranks 11th).

Brock Beauchamp
07-21-2012, 09:39 AM
RCP, that's the TV markets, right? That's the one that has Iowa in 6 different markets (thus giving Jim Crikket heartburn).

I'm not sure if that is how baseball is defining market size or if they are using Metropolitan Statistical Areas (where Minnesota ranks 11th).

Yep, I believe that is a TV-only map.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-21-2012, 01:37 PM
Ah, found a map. Of all the silly things, Seattle has the most territory. Who would have guessed that?

1614
Montana really doesn't count.

biggentleben
07-21-2012, 02:05 PM
I'm in Rapid City, SD tonight. Far west SD, mountain time zone. The hotel had two FSNs. Colorado and Midwest
I figured I'd be watching Cuddy, but Midwest had the Twins broadcast on it... so Twins territory reaches farther than I imagined.

Until the 1998 home run chase, MSC (FSN) was the only regional channel in any of South Dakota, even the farthest west. The Rockies had a pretty good fan base in western SD from the time they started in 1993, but the Twins have been the dominant radio/TV team in the entire of the Dakotas since they came in the 60s, and you'd find the same in a lot of Montana/Wyoming as well, though those states start to get to Mariners long-standing fan bases.

biggentleben
07-21-2012, 02:09 PM
Nobody is denying he is a Braves fan, it was just the notion that Wisconsin is "Braves territory"

Also the Rams and Raiders moved within the past 20 years and the Raiders still play relatively close to LA. (not over 1500 miles away). The Braves moved almost 50 years ago and ended up getting new team in the area a short time later.

Where did I say that it was Braves territory? My comment was about the entirety of Wisconsin being Brewers, not just Milwaukee, and I made the comment that there are pockets of Braves fans throughout a lot of the state that remain loyal to the team.

biggentleben
07-21-2012, 02:10 PM
Regardless if there are Braves fans in Wisconsin the Braves don't have a share of the Wisconsin baseball market that will factor into the draft pick lottery. I also doubt that this fractional minority impacts the baseball revenue.

Once again, that was not the point I was making at all. There were comments about whether all of Wisconsin is Brewers or not, and someone brought up the western part of the state being loyal to the Twins, so I mentioned the Braves fan base in the state. There's also a pretty long-standing Cubs fan base in the southern part of the state.