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ScottyB
07-18-2012, 01:54 PM
Next year the Twins obviously need to blow up the starting rotation. Pavano, Liriano are good as gone. Any trade is unlikely to return a starter for next season. At this point Diamond is a lock, Hendricks is a probability, Gibson is unlikely until May or June, Blackburn has shown nothing this season (with luck maybe we can trade him this winter), and even if they bring back Baker on a new contract with incentives, it will be at earliest July before he's recovered to a point of being an okay pitcher. The Twins will need to be active in the free agent market this winter as they don't have any trade chips that can return a good starter for next season (unless they use someone like Sano - but then what's the point). I think they will need 3 starters. Using the list from MLB Trade Rumors who should the Twins go after - remember this is the Twins. They won't spend $100M+ on Grenke or Hamels. The 3 at the top of my list are Colby Lewis, Brandon McCarthy and Anibal Sanchez.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html)

PseudoSABR
07-18-2012, 02:23 PM
1)
2)
3)
4) Diamond
5) Blackburn

greengoblinrulz
07-18-2012, 02:35 PM
From how we stand right now, Pavano will be back in AUG & get another 10 starts. If those go well, they will offer Pavano another contract or arbitration (1 yr deal w/incentives???) IMO.
Dont love the idea, but what are your other options.
Hendriks & Gibson are both gonna get real considerations next yr also & I havent ruled out Scot Baker back at a reduced/incentive deal.
Cant truly look ahead till after seeing if we get anything at deadline for Frankie/Denard & whether we truly enter the FA race for the first time.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-18-2012, 02:56 PM
From how we stand right now, Pavano will be back in AUG & get another 10 starts. If those go well, they will offer Pavano another contract or arbitration (1 yr deal w/incentives???) IMO.
Dont love the idea, but what are your other options.
Hendriks & Gibson are both gonna get real considerations next yr also & I havent ruled out Scot Baker back at a reduced/incentive deal.
Cant truly look ahead till after seeing if we get anything at deadline for Frankie/Denard & whether we truly enter the FA race for the first time.
No on Pavano.

PseudoSABR
07-18-2012, 03:01 PM
Gibson, Hendricks, Broomberg, Blackburn, Baker (i think they bring him back on a Matt Capps like deal), and probably two FAs will compete for four spots in the rotation. Diamond is the only lock at this point; how odd is that!

As for the FAs, I think it will depend on how the team finishes whether or not we take a few from the scrap heap or sign a Marcum type.

Winston Smith
07-18-2012, 03:06 PM
We have what 20-25 mill to spend next winter if payroll isn't cut again. Why would you spend any of that on Baker when you have no idea if he will pitch next year and if he does will be any good?

PseudoSABR
07-18-2012, 03:17 PM
We have what 20-25 mill to spend next winter if payroll isn't cut again. Why would you spend any of that on Baker when you have no idea if he will pitch next year and if he does will be any good?Because Baker is a front line starter when healthy. A two year contract, with the second year being an option would help alleviate some risk. Say 5 mil the first year with a 9 mil option. Any FA pitcher we sign that has a track record will want a long term contract; there's risk with any pitcher when you're not going year to year. I'd rather have Baker than another Marquis or Livan Hernandez...

SweetOne69
07-18-2012, 03:21 PM
Because Baker is a front line starter when healthy. A two year contract, with the second year being an option would help alleviate some risk. Say 5 mil the first year with a 9 mil option. Any FA pitcher we sign that has a track record will want a long term contract; there's risk with any pitcher when you're not going year to year. I'd rather have Baker than another Marquis or Livan Hernandez...

The $9M option seems about right, but the $5M first year is too high unless it is $2M base with $3M in incentives.

greengoblinrulz
07-18-2012, 03:34 PM
For Baker next yr (or Pavano either) Im way willing to pay these guys in incentives but unfortunately they will take the most guarranteed money they can find AND then see about incentives.
Id give both 5m + incentives (still less than Blackburn) & if they give me 32 starts, it is WELL worth it.
Problem is, Im sick/tired of the same pitchers here & want change for change sake.
Im willing to say (if I had a say) that Diamond/Gibson/Hendriks are in the rotation. Means we need 2 solid guys. Depends on what happens in the next 10 days in trades, but while I would love Grienke, an innings eater like Ed Jackson is very valuable.

Tcrose3636
07-18-2012, 03:39 PM
Brandon McCarthy (5/54, 10.8/year)
Scott Diamond
Anibal Sanchez (5/48.5, 9.7/year)
Joe Saunders (2/13, 6.5/year)
Kyle Gibson

Docsilly
07-18-2012, 03:58 PM
If we (the Twins) don't get a nice package of prospects for Liriano, then we keep him and offer him arbitration. We go out a sign Edwin Jackson for 2-3 years at 8-9 mil a year (like Pavano got). Diamond for the 3 spot. Gibson 4 spot. Blackburn, Hendricks, Baker. Heck, even bring back Pavano for 1-2 mil with bonuses. I think you could be really competitve with these pitchers in the Central. We might even be able to sign Greinke if the Pohlads can dig into there pocker like the Wild. I think you could get Greinke for 18-20 mil for 4-5 years. Morneau is off the books the year after next and it looks like we have some help in Parmalee for 1B.

diehardtwinsfan
07-18-2012, 04:08 PM
whether we like it or not, Blackie will be there. Diamond is a lock as well at this point. I suspect the team will have an open spot for Hendricks/Gibson/minor league FA to compete for. Hopefully the go out and get at least 2 decent starters.

cr9617
07-18-2012, 04:17 PM
I can't see any team, other than the Twins, offering even a 1 year deal for Pavano.

jimbo92107
07-18-2012, 04:19 PM
1) Deduno
2) De Vries
3) Hendriks
4) Diamond
5) Blackburn

Excuse me, I have to go put a plastic bag on my head now...

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 04:20 PM
We go out a sign Edwin Jackson for 2-3 years at 8-9 mil a year (like Pavano got).

It's going to require at least 3 years, $30m to get Jackson, maybe more. He's only 28 years old. It would probably take four years to get him to the Twins.

cr9617
07-18-2012, 04:22 PM
If we (the Twins) don't get a nice package of prospects for Liriano, then we keep him and offer him arbitration. We go out a sign Edwin Jackson for 2-3 years at 8-9 mil a year (like Pavano got). Diamond for the 3 spot. Gibson 4 spot. Blackburn, Hendricks, Baker. Heck, even bring back Pavano for 1-2 mil with bonuses. I think you could be really competitve with these pitchers in the Central. We might even be able to sign Greinke if the Pohlads can dig into there pocker like the Wild. I think you could get Greinke for 18-20 mil for 4-5 years. Morneau is off the books the year after next and it looks like we have some help in Parmalee for 1B.

I don't think the Twins will be in the mix for any FA pitcher that would require 100 mil contract. I'll believe it when it happens.

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 04:24 PM
Anyway, this is how I'd like to see it happen:

1. FA acquisition (second tier, Jackson-level of pitcher)
2. Baker
3. Gibson/Blackburn (Blackburn early, Gibson later)
4. Hendriks
5. Diamond

It could be an awful rotation, it could be a serviceable one. Hard to say with almost every spot being a wildcard.

I'd cut and run on Pavano. I don't think he has anything left in the tank and he's going to be 37 next season.

ScottyB
07-18-2012, 04:25 PM
Tcrose3636 - I could go for Saunders as well. After Joe Nathan had Tommy John, it took him a season and an half to be decent (about midway through 2011), this year he is back to normal - and he had one of the most stringent rehab stints of anyone. I don't see Baker being his old self until at least July of 2013, and Gibson not much before that. Docsilly - If you think Edwin Jackson will sign for that little with Scott Boras as his agent, you're dreaming, not to mention this Twins regime signing a pitcher like Zack Grenke to more than a 4-year deal. I don't see them spending much more than $10M a year for any pitcher. It's one of the reasons we're in the predicament we're in now.

Tcrose3636
07-18-2012, 04:30 PM
RP - Yeah, that looks pretty ugly with a lot of hoping and praying. I could definetly see it going that way but I hope the deadline passes with maybe a Liriano trade and then they go out heavily in FA to get 3 second teir starting pitchers.

I put Joe Saunders in my rotation pick cause he would fit well with the Lefty/Righty mix and I think the Twins were high on him a few years back...but I could be making that up, and he pitched well last year and this year is going pretty good for him too.

jimbo92107
07-18-2012, 04:35 PM
It is absolutely impossible to predict any starter for 2013 except Scott Diamond.

If Frankie Liriano is still around, but that's a complete coin flip.
If Cole De Vries pitches well in his next start, then his odds go up a lot.
If Samuel Deduno stops walking batters just before giving up a home run, or throwing wildly to first and home, then his odds go up. He's got talent.
If Liam Hendriks develops better damage control, then he's in.
If Brian Duensing gets his tight snap back, he'd be fine.

From there, the odds go down fast. Both Duensing and Swarzak have worked better out of the bull pen. Gray might be a possibility... I was high on Bromberg before the broken arm... Gibson might still make it next year... Wimmers will probably wind up with TJ surgery (ain't it the way?)... Walters looked strictly marginal.

Spring training will be another cattle call. That's the one thing we can be sure of.

Docsilly
07-18-2012, 04:43 PM
Tcrose3636 - I could go for Saunders as well. After Joe Nathan had Tommy John, it took him a season and an half to be decent (about midway through 2011), this year he is back to normal - and he had one of the most stringent rehab stints of anyone. I don't see Baker being his old self until at least July of 2013, and Gibson not much before that. Docsilly - If you think Edwin Jackson will sign for that little with Scott Boras as his agent, you're dreaming, not to mention this Twins regime signing a pitcher like Zack Grenke to more than a 4-year deal. I don't see them spending much more than $10M a year for any pitcher. It's one of the reasons we're in the predicament we're in now.

Edwin Jackson has to be tired of signing these 1 year deals all the time. He has to get the to point where some sort of multi-year deal that's halfway reasonable he would consider. He/Boras has to know that teams aren't lining up for his client "to get the big money" so any 2-3 deal in the 8-10 mill/year they would have to consider. This year he signed for 11 or 12 mil on a 1 year deal. Give up a little money per year average for 3 years. Never know.

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 04:45 PM
RP - Yeah, that looks pretty ugly with a lot of hoping and praying. I could definetly see it going that way but I hope the deadline passes with maybe a Liriano trade and then they go out heavily in FA to get 3 second teir starting pitchers.

I put Joe Saunders in my rotation pick cause he would fit well with the Lefty/Righty mix and I think the Twins were high on him a few years back...but I could be making that up, and he pitched well last year and this year is going pretty good for him too.

There's no way the Twins pick up three second tier guys. I'd be happy with one. If the Twins could swing Joe Saunders, I'd be pretty happy with that but I'd rather see them find someone that K's guys more in the 7 per 9 range.

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 04:46 PM
Edwin Jackson has to be tired of signing these 1 year deals all the time. He has to get the to point where some sort of multi-year deal that's halfway reasonable he would consider. He/Boras has to know that teams aren't lining up for his client "to get the big money" so any 2-3 deal in the 8-10 mill/year they would have to consider. This year he signed for 11 or 12 mil on a 1 year deal. Give up a little money per year average for 3 years. Never know.

He chose Washington last season. I think he's a shoe-in for at least a three year deal this offseason.

cr9617
07-18-2012, 04:47 PM
It is absolutely impossible to predict any starter for 2013 except Scott Diamond.

If Frankie Liriano is still around, but that's a complete coin flip.
If Cole De Vries pitches well in his next start, then his odds go up a lot.
If Samuel Deduno stops walking batters just before giving up a home run, or throwing wildly to first and home, then his odds go up. He's got talent.
If Liam Hendriks develops better damage control, then he's in.
If Brian Duensing gets his tight snap back, he'd be fine.

From there, the odds go down fast. Both Duensing and Swarzak have worked better out of the bull pen. Gray might be a possibility... I was high on Bromberg before the broken arm... Gibson might still make it next year... Wimmers will probably wind up with TJ surgery (ain't it the way?)... Walters looked strictly marginal.

Spring training will be another cattle call. That's the one thing we can be sure of.

De Vries and Deduno are stop gaps, nothing more than that. Duensing has proven to be solid out of the bullpen, and not good enough to be a starter. Almost every name on that list is totally underwelming. This team needs to go outside the organization for real pitching help.

Thrylos
07-18-2012, 04:49 PM
a. There is no way that the Twins sign any Free Agent pitcher to a 5-year deal.
b. I think that the best free agent out there when all is said and done (i.e. after the trade deadline and after contracts have been awarded to Hamels/Greinke and I still like him both than those because NL numbers do not always translate to the AL) might be Liriano
c. Unless the Twins are sure they are going to compete in 2013 it would be silly to sign any big time SPs on their prime or close to the end of the line
d. I would really do not mind them rebuilding in 2013 with a plan in a good organized way and try to re-think the way they do thinks top down in all levels of the organization and target 2015 as the serious competing point. But they got to have the guts to do it all the way and start investing on prospects that would be coming from trading veterans. I am not sure that they can do that...

diehardtwinsfan
07-18-2012, 05:04 PM
De Vries and Deduno are stop gaps, nothing more than that. Duensing has proven to be solid out of the bullpen, and not good enough to be a starter. Almost every name on that list is totally underwelming. This team needs to go outside the organization for real pitching help.

Agreed. Those two belong in Rochester as filler for the eventual injury.

Badsmerf
07-18-2012, 06:25 PM
Anyway, this is how I'd like to see it happen:

1. FA acquisition (second tier, Jackson-level of pitcher)
2. Baker
3. Gibson/Blackburn (Blackburn early, Gibson later)
4. Hendriks
5. Diamond

It could be an awful rotation, it could be a serviceable one. Hard to say with almost every spot being a wildcard.

I'd cut and run on Pavano. I don't think he has anything left in the tank and he's going to be 37 next season.
Exactly my guess. If Liriano isn't traded he will be in the 1 spot. I think it will also be Blackburn for Baker early before its Blackburn for Gibson early. Actually, I guess JR will do a low risk sign like Ramon Ortiz to fill that spot until Baker is ready. Look what happened with R.A. Dickey!!11!1 You know JR saw him make the All-Star Game and punched himself in the face.

The Greatest Poster Alive
07-18-2012, 06:31 PM
#1 Grienke
#2 Hamels
#3 Dempster
#4 Jackson
#5 Liriano

Superbowl homeboy.

ScottyB
07-18-2012, 06:59 PM
#1 Grienke
#2 Hamels
#3 Dempster
#4 Jackson
#5 Liriano

Superbowl homeboy.

Which earth continuum are we talking about?

Top Gun
07-18-2012, 07:38 PM
Joe Saunders is just awful!

Nick Nelson
07-18-2012, 10:52 PM
I can't believe someone actually suggested bringing Pavano back.

lecroy24fan
07-18-2012, 11:03 PM
I think they should target Shaun Marcum.

ashburyjohn
07-18-2012, 11:17 PM
Brandon McCarthy (5/54, 10.8/year)

I am worried that McCarthy is a figment of the Oakland stadium.


Joe Saunders (2/13, 6.5/year)

Saunders on the other hand is badly hurt by his current home park. You might get equivalent production out of either pitcher in the same park, and I agree Saunders might be the cheaper one to sign.

James Richter
07-19-2012, 02:56 AM
Several of the 2nd-tier options are spending some time on the DL this season. I don't think many FAs will get lengthy deals without a track record of durability. This will play into the Twins' hands this offseason. Had they reached 200 IP, guys like Marcum, McCarthy and Lewis all could have been looking at $30M+ guaranteed. Now I think they may have to settle for less than $25M, particularly whoever still doesn't have a chair by January. There's no excuse for the front office not to sign at least one guy at that price.

Outside of Liriano, I think it's pretty important for the near-term future of the organization for the in-house SP options to struggle for the rest of the season. That includes Diamond - it would be better if his ERA winds up closer to 4.00. We need the front office to believe that nobody under team control is capable of filling the front half of the rotation. If they do, they might prioritize spending some money on someone who could actually plug that hole.

DPJ
07-19-2012, 06:36 AM
1. Crap
2. Crap
3. Crap
4. Diamond
5. Crap

Brock Beauchamp
07-19-2012, 07:21 AM
Joe Saunders is just awful!

Except for the times when he's not.

A career 104 ERA+ isn't going to light the world on fire but it's nothing to scoff at, either. Saunders definitely wouldn't be my first choice but if the market isn't hot on him (unlikely given the season he's having), I wouldn't completely be against signing the guy.

Badsmerf
07-19-2012, 08:29 AM
Joe Saunders? Really? If Grienke continues to struggle he isn't going to get 20m a year. If they can get Grienke for 5 years 80-90m thats what I would want. Me ideal scenario would be Grienke, Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, Blackburn. With an incentive deal negotiated with Baker and him taking Blackburn's spot when ready. That would be a solid rotation. I'm assuming Gibson and Hendriks will develop, but I know this isn't a given. With that rotation I think this team could be playoff team... BUT, if they really wanted to... Sign Grienke and get Liriano with the option. A rotation like that could be legit. That would put the Twins over 100m, but not by much (assuming Span is dealt). Morneau is then coming off the books to free up more space so next year would be the highest of payroll, but you'd also be winning games (and selling out target field in the process). This team will be better and my approach would have them making more money via playoffs (and hopefully deep playoff run).

Brock Beauchamp
07-19-2012, 08:36 AM
Joe Saunders? Really? If Grienke continues to struggle he isn't going to get 20m a year. If they can get Grienke for 5 years 80-90m thats what I would want. Me ideal scenario would be Grienke, Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, Blackburn. With an incentive deal negotiated with Baker and him taking Blackburn's spot when ready. That would be a solid rotation. I'm assuming Gibson and Hendriks will develop, but I know this isn't a given. With that rotation I think this team could be playoff team... BUT, if they really wanted to... Sign Grienke and get Liriano with the option. A rotation like that could be legit. That would put the Twins over 100m, but not by much (assuming Span is dealt). Morneau is then coming off the books to free up more space so next year would be the highest of payroll, but you'd also be winning games (and selling out target field in the process). This team will be better and my approach would have them making more money via playoffs (and hopefully deep playoff run).

If Greinke keeps scuffling and interest drops in him, I'm all for the Twins going after the guy.

I just don't think it will happen. Somebody is going to offer him big money, even if he hasn't been very good since his Cy Young season (which he really hasn't).

It will be interesting to see how this offseason shakes out. Over the past three seasons, Greinke isn't terribly different than Edwin Jackson, though Zack strikes out quite a few more batters (around 7 vs. 9 K/9). ERA+, walks, hits/9, etc. are all pretty similar and they're the same age.

If teams go after Greinke and not Jackson, pursue Edwin (though he's a Boras client... ugh).

At this point, I'm starting to believe that most of the hype around Zack Greinke is because his name is Zack Greinke. He's still a good pitcher but he hasn't been anything close to the dominant pitcher he was four years ago (his peripherals are still good, just not great) and he's been "not so dominant" in the NL, not the AL. I'm a little skeptical of the guy at this point.

mike wants wins
07-19-2012, 08:59 AM
1. Crap
2. Crap
3. Crap
4. Diamond
5. Crap


I think this is the most likely outcome right now. The Twins will say "we wanted to sign these guys, but we don't think 5 year contracts make sense for pitchers", and all the really good pitchers will get 3-5 year deals, and the Twins will use the leftovers.

That said, I think Gibson and Hendriks are better than "crap", so to me it is more like:

1. a number 4 starter signed for low dollars
2. a number 4 starter signed for low dollars
3. Diamond
4. Gibson (moving to a 3 over time)
5. Hendriks (moving to a 4 over time)

Boom Boom
07-19-2012, 09:26 AM
1. Diamond
2. Baker
3. Blackburn

and then a couple dumpster-dive moves. Maybe Jeff Francis and Bartolo Colon.

stringer bell
07-19-2012, 09:38 AM
I don't think Pavano, Liriano, or Baker will be back. The year after rehab is typically poor for TJ patients so getting anything from Baker would be a stunner. He will be a free agent, as well. An innings eater coming off a season when he didn't eat innings is of little value. I don't expect many will offer much for Pavano, but the rebuilding Twins shouldn't take an interest unless he is truly dirt cheap. If Liriano isn't traded, he will probably net the Twins a draft pick, but I can't see the Twins outbidding everyone for Francisco on the open market and it would make zero sense for Frankie to sign an extension with free agency so close.

I think Gibson will have a chance to make the rotation out of the spring. If his recovery is complete, he will go the the AFL and if he pitches acceptably, he'll be in line to compete for a spot.

My plan for rotation 2013: Diamond is there. The best of the rotation for the balance of 2012 (De Vries, Walters, Deduno, Blackburn ) gets the edge for a spot. The Twins sign one guy in free agency who gets a spot and trade for a guy this month who is pencilled in for a spot. The final spot comes from the farm with Gibson the favorite if healthy and effective for the balance of 2012.

chopper0080
07-19-2012, 02:24 PM
1-Shaun Marcum (3yrs)
2-Anibal Sanchez (4yrs)
3-Scott Diamond
4-Nick Blackburn
5-Liam Hendriks/Cole DeVries/Kyle Gibson

nicksaviking
07-19-2012, 03:41 PM
I want to see the Angels get another arm, like Liriano, before the deadline and look to retain said arm the following season. This would cause them to second guess picking up Dan Haren's $15.5 million option. After a down year, Dan Haren may not be able to command the contract normally expected and he may fit into the Twins budget if he has to settle for a more reasonable offer. He's still only 31 and is not someone with major injury concerns.

Vervehound
07-19-2012, 04:08 PM
1. Diamond
2. Baker
3. Blackburn


= 111 losses

btw, the beej, bj hermsen is going to see innings in 2013 whether you like it or not.

Badsmerf
07-19-2012, 08:21 PM
= 111 losses

btw, the beej, bj hermsen is going to see innings in 2013 whether you like it or not.

Verve coming out (of the closet) with his guns blazing.

shs_59
07-19-2012, 09:06 PM
Agreed we essentially have to do 2 things.....

1A Find the next Pavano.....Colby Lewis, McCarthy and Shawn Marcum are probably possibilities. (the key is to get them for less than 8.0 Million a year) like 5-7.

1B Bring back Scott Baker !!!!!!!!!!!!! -after declining option, bring him back for cheaper, incentive laden

1) FA 2) Scott Baker 3) Anibal Sanchez? (if others leave) 4) Diamond 5) Gibson, Hendriks, Blacky.................Bromberg, Lanigan, Hermsen, Darnell, Walters....

IdahoPilgrim
07-19-2012, 09:10 PM
I don't think Pavano, Liriano, or Baker will be back. The year after rehab is typically poor for TJ patients so getting anything from Baker would be a stunner. He will be a free agent, as well. An innings eater coming off a season when he didn't eat innings is of little value. I don't expect many will offer much for Pavano, but the rebuilding Twins shouldn't take an interest unless he is truly dirt cheap. If Liriano isn't traded, he will probably net the Twins a draft pick, but I can't see the Twins outbidding everyone for Francisco on the open market and it would make zero sense for Frankie to sign an extension with free agency so close.



So you're in favor of offering him $12M for next year? That's the only way you get a draft pick if he leaves - offering that much and having him turn it down.

The Greatest Poster Alive
07-19-2012, 10:00 PM
So you're in favor of offering him $12M for next year? That's the only way you get a draft pick if he leaves - offering that much and having him turn it down.

Honestly I'd rather give liriano 12 million for one year... than twice that for 3 years. I still don't trust him yet. He has the talent... but he's had the talent since 2006... Also... his pitching has improved since he switched back to violent mechanics... he's well on his way to another tommy john.

if the Twins don't trade liriano... don't re-sign him... and don't offer him enough money to net a draft pick... **** that would be stupid.