PDA

View Full Version : Aaron Gleeman's Top 40 Twins Prospects



John Bonnes
02-22-2012, 12:13 PM
Aaron Gleeman is counting down his Top 40 Twins prospects over at his excellent blog (http://aarongleeman.com/). I thought I'd start a thread where we can provide links to each one as they come out and discuss all in one place.

You can click here (http://aarongleeman.com/2012/02/13/top-40-twins-prospects-of-2012-40-39-38-37-36/) for #36 through #40 which are:

40- Kyle Waldrop
39 - Anderson Hidalgo
38 - Derek Rodriguez
37 - JaDamion Williams
36 - Tyler Robertson

You can click here (http://aarongleeman.com/2012/02/20/top-40-twins-prospects-of-2012-35-34-33-32-31/) for #35 through #31 which are:

35 - Scott Diamond
34 - Jairo Perez
33 - James Beresford
32 - Terry Doyle
31 - Tyler Grimes

Any thoughts about where they're ranked? Are there any you're really excited about?

Seth Stohs
02-22-2012, 12:35 PM
Dereck Rodriguez is the interesting name to me so far. He obviously has good genetics. He's a very good athlete and has a rocket for an arm (as we would expect). The fact that he struck out 35 times and hit .156 in 98 plate appearances in the GCL in his debut is meaningless. When the Twins took him in the 6th round last year, most "experts" thought that they reached a little bit on him. I'm very curious whether they'll stick with him as an OF, or if he'll eventually move to the mound.

siouxjv
02-22-2012, 12:36 PM
I was reading the Pioneer Press article about Eddie Guardado today and they had a little quote from Tyler Robertson. They also posted his stats last year and I have to say I was a little surprised how solid they were. I don't know that much about these particular ten, but out of the names I'm familiar with (waldrop, diamond, doyle, etc.), I am interested in how Robertson progresses. Any other info about how he's tracking would be appreciated....

gunnarthor
02-22-2012, 12:36 PM
I'm not saying he's wrong but guys like Scott Diamond probably should be ranked higher even if their stuff/projections isn't that high b/c we know they'll make the majors. Sure, he's not as sexy as others but I think it's pretty likely that Diamond makes a few starts for the ML team this year. There will be dozens of players ranked above him on these lists that will never even get a cup of coffee at the ML level. I think that's often underrated/forgotten.

Seth Stohs
02-22-2012, 12:53 PM
Robertson was terrific the last 2/3 of last season with the Rock Cats. He doesn't throw very hard, but he's left-handed. The team just moved him to the bullpen after the 2010 season (in the AFL). He has a chance to be a decent LOOGY. Stuff-wise, he's well below Perkins and Duensing, but that's why he's a reliever now.

Mr. Ed
02-22-2012, 12:53 PM
I thought the Twins were considering moving D-Rod to pitcher after a rough GCL year.

I hope some of the gaudy numbers in Rook Ball aren't just a product of the Eliz bandbox. Reminds me of the Edmonton days when Resto and others
were cranking the ball, and like when Laudner lit up Orlando. False hopes.

Seth Stohs
02-22-2012, 12:57 PM
gunnarthor - that's the difficulty with prospect lists... it's a struggle between what a player's ceiling is and the likelihood that he'll reach it. With Diamond, his ceiling is back-of-the-rotation starter or long reliever. What is the likelihood that he reaches that ceiling? Probably not too bad since he has spent time with the Twins and made starts. Compare that with Liam Hendriks whose ceiling is probably a big league #3. it's more likely he's a #4 or #5 starter but he could meet his ceiling. Compare that with Eddie Rosario whose ceiling is five-tool, Carlos Beltran All-Star type... the likelihood that he gets to the big leagues and becomes that is not very high. So, it's all a guess based on reports, and some on numbers, and then we see what happens. I think I had Diamond in this same range (31-35).

jtrinaldi
02-22-2012, 03:38 PM
Jairo>Grimes any day

Thrylos
02-22-2012, 03:43 PM
Compare that with Eddie Rosario whose ceiling is five-tool, Carlos Beltran All-Star type... the likelihood that he gets to the big leagues and becomes that is not very high. So, it's all a guess based on reports, and some on numbers, and then we see what happens.

Agree about the guess part, where I somewhat disagree with most people's ranking of Rosario, is that they are thinking of him as an OF. Think of him as a second baseman and the only comparable who comes to mind is Robinson Cano. Slugging OF prospects are many, but slugging MIF prospects are not so many, so his stock rises, just by the position relocation, and that still has yet to be reflected in most of the rankings (at least the ones that place him behind Dozier, Arcia or Hicks...)

On your list, Seth, I think he was placed perfectly btw :)

Shane Wahl
02-22-2012, 04:00 PM
Agree about the guess part, where I somewhat disagree with most people's ranking of Rosario, is that they are thinking of him as an OF. Think of him as a second baseman and the only comparable who comes to mind is Robinson Cano. Slugging OF prospects are many, but slugging MIF prospects are not so many, so his stock rises, just by the position relocation, and that still has yet to be reflected in most of the rankings (at least the ones that place him behind Dozier, Arcia or Hicks...)

On your list, Seth, I think he was placed perfectly btw :)

Yes, but Rosario has had one decent year and one great year as an OF. He has zero years of any kind at 2B. If he sticks and has a year, say, where he splits the difference at between his 2010 and 2011 performance in 2012 at Beloit, then you are definitely correct.

dave_dw
02-22-2012, 04:19 PM
I got the pleasure of watching a little Jairo "The Gyro" Perez last year. And that guy killed it in the Midwest League which is notoriously hard to hit in. Don't let his down year in 2009 throw you, he was battling injury that year which led him to miss 2010. Now he's back and appears to be as good as ever. Plus, unlike Miguel Sano, he looks like he actually profiles at 3B.

Mr. Ed
02-22-2012, 04:38 PM
Yes, but Rosario has had one decent year and one great year as an OF. He has zero years of any kind at 2B. If he sticks and has a year, say, where he splits the difference at between his 2010 and 2011 performance in 2012 at Beloit, then you are definitely correct.


Rosario's GCL year was better than decent. It's a pitcher's league, big offensive numbers are hard to come by.

Seth Stohs
02-22-2012, 04:40 PM
Thrylos - I just have a hard time comping Rosario with Cano yet just because he hasn't played 2B yet ... but I get your point.

dave_dw - In Instructs, the Twins had Perez spend time in the OF too. He told me it was to help make him for versatile and maybe get to the big leagues sooner.

destes
02-22-2012, 08:56 PM
interested in knowing how you came to place doyle at 32

pekingman
02-22-2012, 11:20 PM
Reacting to the Terry Doyle questions, sometimes these long lists don't make a lot of sense because we're combining "readiness" with "long term potential". I'd like to see those who rank prospects move to a "9 box matrix". On one axis would be readiness for major leagues: ready now, ready in 1-2 years, or ready in 3-5 years. On the other axis would be potential contribution at major leagues level: high potential, solid major leaguer, or marginal. Using Terry Doyle as example since some asked about him: my guess is that Aaron would rank him as "ready now" or within "1-2 years", but "marginal" major leaguer.

Shane Wahl
02-23-2012, 12:21 AM
Rosario's GCL year was better than decent. It's a pitcher's league, big offensive numbers are hard to come by.

Fair enough. You are right about that.

Shane Wahl
02-23-2012, 12:24 AM
Sweet Jesus, my brain hurts after reading a single sentence of this. F et M PC thing. How does this happen?

Shane Wahl
02-23-2012, 12:25 AM
Reacting to the Terry Doyle questions, sometimes these long lists don't make a lot of sense because we're combining "readiness" with "long term potential". I'd like to see those who rank prospects move to a "9 box matrix". On one axis would be readiness for major leagues: ready now, ready in 1-2 years, or ready in 3-5 years. On the other axis would be potential contribution at major leagues level: high potential, solid major leaguer, or marginal. Using Terry Doyle as example since some asked about him: my guess is that Aaron would rank him as "ready now" or within "1-2 years", but "marginal" major leaguer.

I like this idea. Now I have more work to do. Thanks . . .

John Bonnes
02-23-2012, 12:31 AM
Aaron posted #26 -#30 tonight (http://aarongleeman.com/2012/02/23/top-40-twins-prospects-of-2012-30-29-28-27-26/).

30. Matt Hauser
29. B.J. Hermsen
28. Pat Dean
27. Deolis Guerra
26. Manuel Soliman

Shane Wahl
02-23-2012, 12:51 PM
Those five are all legitimate breakout pitchers this year. I think Soliman should be higher. Guerra maintaining his 'pen numbers for last year could give me more hope for 2013.