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View Full Version : The Quickie Response Thread to the Question: Should the Twins Trade Liriano?



powrwrap
07-16-2012, 05:14 PM
OK, here is the concept of this thread. Please answer the question with Yes or No and then post no more than 3 sentences to explain your answer. I'll start.

Should the Twins trade Francisco Liriano?

No. The Twins need quality starting pitching and Liriano fits the bill. Any trade of Liriano would likely include a starting pitcher in return, probably of lower quality than Liriano. Trading him would be a net loss to the starting rotation.

>Next<

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-16-2012, 05:27 PM
Yes*

*Assuming they can't get him to sign a 2 year 16-18 mil deal (w 11 mil team option for 3rd year) prior to the deadline.

LaBombo
07-16-2012, 05:30 PM
Yes, trade him for a good prospect. His hot streak is another mirage, because he's been healthy and good exactly one time in six years since his debut. And even despite his hot streak his 2012 walk rate is the highest it's ever been, 5+ BB/9. The difference between bringing him back for one or, say, three years is the difference between taking one bad risk or three.

IdahoPilgrim
07-16-2012, 05:32 PM
Yes. This is what we were all hoping for back in April; a good run leading to trade value. His past record does not allow us the luxury of thinking "this time will be different." Let's not forget he has motivation now - a new contract; once signed, then what?

Brock Beauchamp
07-16-2012, 05:32 PM
Yes. Francisco looks good right now but I don't trust him to continue looking good in 2013, especially not at the price he should command if he keeps this up all season long. Take the prospect and run.

stringer bell
07-16-2012, 05:37 PM
Liriano has been erratic and unreliable. He will be a free agent after the season with no guarantee that the Twins will sign him. Please, Terry Ryan, get fair value.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-16-2012, 05:38 PM
If you check out Lirianos last 77 games (70 starts) which includes his entire terrible 2010 season he has put up the following numbers:

4.38 ERA
8.8 k/9
4.0 bb/9
1.368 WHIP

Let's stop pretending like these last 9 starts or whatever are the only time he has looked decent lately.

We should offer a contract based off those numbers plus a little extra for upside, thus the 2 years 16-18 million.

twinswon1991
07-16-2012, 05:39 PM
Yes.

If he gets hurt or goes back to being "Bad Frankie" in August or September you get nothing. He is one of the few chips the Twins have that can bring back a couple high upside low level minor leaguers. SELL HIGH AND BUILD FOR A RUN IN 2015!

powrwrap
07-16-2012, 05:48 PM
If you check out Lirianos last 77 games (70 starts) which includes his entire terrible 2010 season he has put up the following numbers:

4.38 ERA
8.8 k/9
4.0 bb/9
1.368 WHIP

Let's stop pretending like these last 9 starts or whatever are the only time he has looked decent lately.

We should offer a contract based off those numbers plus a little extra for upside, thus the 2 years 16-18 million.

His BB/9IP of 5.05 in 2012 is inflated by a slow start in April.

USAFChief
07-16-2012, 05:57 PM
No, unless a reasonable 3 yr extension has already been discussed and hes not interested.

LastOnePicked
07-16-2012, 06:01 PM
Yes. I feel bad for saying this, but I want him traded for HIS sake more than the team's. It'd be fun to see him work under a pitching coach who might know, well, what he's doing with top-level talent. To me, Francisco is just another case of a foreign ballplayer who gets his name anglicized by Gardy, gets labeled a head case by the coaching staff and gets derailed from a promising career until he gets an opportunity to leave. Goodbye, Francisco -- it'll be fun watching you help a team to a pennant (even if it's the Yankees (GAG!)).

Ultima Ratio
07-16-2012, 06:08 PM
Yes

Trade now for something and sign him in the offseason if possible.

Brock Beauchamp
07-16-2012, 06:11 PM
Yes. I feel bad for saying this, but I want him traded for HIS sake more than the team's. It'd be fun to see him work under a pitching coach who might know, well, what he's doing with top-level talent. To me, Francisco is just another case of a foreign ballplayer who gets his name anglicized by Gardy, gets labeled a head case by the coaching staff and gets derailed from a promising career until he gets an opportunity to leave. Goodbye, Francisco -- it'll be fun watching you help a team to a pennant (even if it's the Yankees (GAG!)).

Yeah, I really wish Rick Anderson would have gotten more out of Johan Santana. Such a waste.

Kobs
07-16-2012, 06:13 PM
Yes. He's not staying either way. Why does anyone think that Liriano wants to stay in Minnesota?

Top Gun
07-16-2012, 06:14 PM
No, they should try every means to sign him first, they will not find anyone better.

Seth Stohs
07-16-2012, 06:21 PM
I'd even offer him 3/24 today... and if he says No, absolutely trade him.

108 Double Stitches
07-16-2012, 06:29 PM
Yes. First you get some return in the trade.

And freeing the time of the staff of one underachieving (although very talented) pitcher may yield benefits to the other auditioning SP canidates. So
possible some addition by subtractoin on that front.

Brock Beauchamp
07-16-2012, 06:30 PM
Yes. He's not staying either way. Why does anyone think that Liriano wants to stay in Minnesota?

Its large latin fanbase?

drjim
07-16-2012, 06:53 PM
Yes. These notions of a "reasonable" extension are laughable. And I wouldn't pay what he ultimately is going to get this offseason. Get value why you still can.

USAFChief
07-16-2012, 06:54 PM
Yes. He's not staying either way. Why does anyone think that Liriano wants to stay in Minnesota?

Why does anyone think he doesnt?

Kobs
07-16-2012, 07:07 PM
Why does anyone think he doesnt?

Constant financial, philosophical and medical clashes? The fact that the Twins are completely awful?

darin617
07-16-2012, 07:10 PM
I'd even offer him 3/24 today... and if he says No, absolutely trade him.

Why would he accept 3/24? His agent would never let that happen right now. In other words trade him before he starts to struggle.

beckmt
07-16-2012, 07:14 PM
Yes, Assuming he will not sign a team friendly extension we need to get value before he leaves for nothing. Exception would be if the Twins plan on making the 12.5 million qualifing offer and the offers are not that good.

mike wants wins
07-16-2012, 07:55 PM
Yes, because I don't think they can get a hometown discount, and he's on a super hot streak that inflates his value in everyone's head, including his and his agent's.

TheLeviathan
07-16-2012, 09:10 PM
His BB/9IP of 5.05 in 2012 is inflated by a slow start in April.

Good thing we don't count April! Or odd number years for Frankie - now I get why people think he's an ace!

BrentMpls
07-16-2012, 09:10 PM
Yes they should try to trade him.

-He is not reliable. Showing glimmers of good wont make up for the melt downs.

-Twins can't afford to offer him a deal for fear he may accept it. Unless the Pohlads raise the payroll paying Liriano will make next years budget almost filled up before any other acquisitions might be made, as things currently stand.

TheLeviathan
07-16-2012, 09:12 PM
Deal him. This guy is barely better than Blackburn and Pavano statistically - it is nothing short of delusion to think he's going to take a cupcake deal or somehow magically transform into an ace. It's not impossible, but it's a comically stupid bad bet to invest in this guy beyond an entirely incentive laden deal.

USAFChief
07-16-2012, 09:22 PM
One would think if he's so terrible he would jump at 3/$24.

diehardtwinsfan
07-16-2012, 09:51 PM
yes, but only if they get decent value (aka not a #5 pitcher). Otherwise, bite the bullet and offer 12.5.

TheLeviathan
07-16-2012, 10:04 PM
One would think if he's so terrible he would jump at 3/$24.

You're right, it's entirely plausible that the following thought will run through Liriano's head:

"I'm a terrible pitcher most of the time....I should jump at this mediocre offer from one of baseball's worst teams who I have had repeated issues with about my pitch selection, offseason routine, delivery, pitching to contact, and medical issues. I mean....they're fools for offering an inconsistent schmuck like me this kind of money....Deal!"

That is pretty far-fetched. Just because Liriano is as mediocre to bad as he statistically is doesn't mean he realizes that. And he HAS to realize that fact in order for the "sign him for a team friendly deal" argument to make any sense. So out of one corner of your mouth you think he's a "frontline starter" and out of the other (in some truly baffling logic) you believe Frankie knows how bad he is. It's just so damn silly I'm amazed anyone seriously believes it.

jctwins
07-16-2012, 10:42 PM
Yes.

Some change would be a good thing. Can we put a three sentence max on every thread? I like this.

alarp33
07-16-2012, 10:47 PM
Yes, but I would offer him 12.5 for next year if they don't trade him, so the trade better bring back more than 2 draft picks would

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-16-2012, 11:10 PM
You're right, it's entirely plausible that the following thought will run through Liriano's head:

"I'm a terrible pitcher most of the time....I should jump at this mediocre offer from one of baseball's worst teams who I have had repeated issues with about my pitch selection, offseason routine, delivery, pitching to contact, and medical issues. I mean....they're fools for offering an inconsistent schmuck like me this kind of money....Deal!"

That is pretty far-fetched. Just because Liriano is as mediocre to bad as he statistically is doesn't mean he realizes that. And he HAS to realize that fact in order for the "sign him for a team friendly deal" argument to make any sense. So out of one corner of your mouth you think he's a "frontline starter" and out of the other (in some truly baffling logic) you believe Frankie knows how bad he is. It's just so damn silly I'm amazed anyone seriously believes it.

Well if Lev says so we all know it must be true, thanks for the insight into the mind of a major league pitcher! Also your tl;dr gibberish was much longer then the 3 sentance maximum discussed earlier in the thread.

USAFChief
07-16-2012, 11:14 PM
Well if Lev says so we all know it must be true, thanks for the insight into the mind of a major league pitcher!

This board is much nicer, and saner, since i put one poster on my ignore list.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-16-2012, 11:20 PM
This board is much nicer, and saner, since i put one poster on my ignore list.

Good idea, didn't even know we had the option!

notoriousgod71
07-16-2012, 11:26 PM
No, because I don't think we'll get anybody better than him.

J-Dog Dungan
07-16-2012, 11:41 PM
Yes

Trade now for something and sign him in the offseason if possible.

Yes, and this is what I hope they do with him in the offseason.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-16-2012, 11:47 PM
Yes, and this is what I hope they do with him in the offseason.

I put the odds at that at less than 1%

The last thing the Twins neeed to do is get into a bidding war with teams over free agent pitching.

Sign him now, or trade him.

Oxtung
07-17-2012, 12:50 AM
If you check out Lirianos last 77 games (70 starts) which includes his entire terrible 2010 season he has put up the following numbers:

4.38 ERA
8.8 k/9
4.0 bb/9
1.368 WHIP

Let's stop pretending like these last 9 starts or whatever are the only time he has looked decent lately.

We should offer a contract based off those numbers plus a little extra for upside, thus the 2 years 16-18 million.

Yes trade him quick before the clock strikes twelve. Not sure why you left 2009 out of those numbers unless you're trying to make him look better than he really has been since coming back from TJ surgery. So here are those numbers again with the season you left out:

4.73 ERA
8.6 k/9
4.0 bb/9
1.413 WHIP

He has also failed to qualify in pitching two of the last 3 years, this year he is on the boarder, so he hasn't exactly been an innings eater either.

70charger
07-17-2012, 01:08 AM
Yes, with reservations. If you don't get a good enough offer for him, it'll be hard for the fans to stomach. Granted, he'll be a 3 month rental for whoever picks him up, but we should get something in return, as this should not be a salary dump situation. That said, there's risk on both sides of this transaction. We'd be trading a huge upside, but we'd be trading a hugely inconsistent pitcher. I'd completely understand if the Twins made a 1-year qualifying offer. I'd completely understand if the Twins offered 3 or 4 years at $7 or 8 million per. I'd completely understand if the Twins traded him. Players aren't usually this confusing, but Liriano is.

As it stands today, I'm leaning towards trading him. But I don't work in the front office.

jorgenswest
07-17-2012, 01:36 AM
Yes.

As long as they get an offer clearly better than a comp pick.

Top Gun
07-17-2012, 02:00 AM
No, you don't even have a offer yet!

TheLeviathan
07-17-2012, 07:37 AM
Well if Lev says so we all know it must be true, thanks for the insight into the mind of a major league pitcher! Also your tl;dr gibberish was much longer then the 3 sentance maximum discussed earlier in the thread.

It was in response to a reply, my three sentencer is already up - but you completely missed the point. I have no idea what Liriano is thinking about his future, but the notion that he would take 3/24 is built on ignoring the team's struggles, his past struggles with the organization, and the value of being a free agent pitcher AND making assumptions about what Liriano would think makes sense. As Chief walked into - it's always been built, at least in part, on the notion that Liriano has been a poor pitcher lately and that he will recognize that. While it makes sense from our perspective to speculate on including that data in an offer - Liriano has no reason to do any such thing. He can believe whatever he wants. So it's really the "Offer him 3/20-whatever" crowd that is making assumptions about Liriano's train of thought.

I'll stick to his stats from the last few seasons for my argument. He's been bad, I'd rather not invest any firm money into that - toss major incentives in, but save the guarantees for another player.

DPJ
07-17-2012, 07:57 AM
Like everyone on this roster, SELL SELL SELL!

MWLFan
07-17-2012, 07:59 AM
yes. The odds are we will have buyers remorse if he gets a big contract. I guess I don't believe that he can maintain the current performance. But this comes with risk that he might I know.

Boom Boom
07-17-2012, 08:19 AM
Yes.

If the Twins sign Liriano to a 3-year deal... do you think the Twins will be a division contender in the next three years? I don't, so I'd like to get something for Liriano now.

Jeremy Nygaard
07-17-2012, 08:25 AM
No. Unless blown away by trade offer (Top 50 prospect), offer him arbitration and go from there.