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View Full Version : Trade Span or Trade Willingham?



strumdatjag
07-16-2012, 11:25 AM
Presuming there are equally reasonable offers for both: Who would you prefer to go and who to stay? I would vote to keep Span and trade Willingham, because of Denard's defense and reliable record as a leadoff hitter. Trading Willngham opens up left field for the weak armed but speedy Ben Revere. The Twins have Trevor Plouffe to provide power from the right side of the plate, Aaron Hicks may develop power as a switch hitter (he's showing some power in AA-Ball) and it's likely that a right handed power-DH will be available in future free agency.

DPJ
07-16-2012, 11:47 AM
Trade them both.

I know it would be a dick punch to the fans but neither player will be around when this team is ready to compete again. I'm not sold on Revere yet and who know would the hell could play LF but if teams are offering you the arms you need to rebuild this rotation, the Twins should hesitate moving either of these guys.

spideyo
07-16-2012, 11:52 AM
We've got plenty of prospects in the "speedy centerfield leadoff hitter" mold. We don't exactly have a huge stockpile of Mashers. Plus, Span DOES have a history of head issues, between the concussions and the weird inner-ear issue he had a few years ago, so there is no guarantee that he'll be a long-term solution. Right now we'd be selling pretty high on him.

Other things to consider:
Trading Willingham now sends a bad message to other FA's we want to attract. Basically, we're saying that if you perform well but the team struggles, we're going to send you out immediately. Why would anyone want to be in that situation? People like to play for a contender, but they also like to not switch teams every 5-6 months.

While Willingham could be replaced in the future through FA, Span can be replaced RIGHT NOW with in-house candidates. A whole lot easier to slide Revere over to Center than hope we get lucky finding another guy who can hit homers at Target Field.

Homeruns alone won't win games, but they certainly help, and they definitely drive fan interest. Odds are good that by the end of the season, Willingham will have hit more homers than any other Twin at Target Field in the last three seasons combined (currently Thome holds the record with 21 in a Twins uniform). His batting style is an excellent fit for this park. Are we really ready to dump that?

DPJ
07-16-2012, 11:58 AM
Homeruns alone won't win games, but they certainly help, and they definitely drive fan interest. Odds are good that by the end of the season, Willingham will have hit more homers than any other Twin at Target Field in the last three seasons combined (currently Thome holds the record with 21 in a Twins uniform). His batting style is an excellent fit for this park. Are we really ready to dump that?

And what good do all those homers do for the team that's gonna lose another 90+ games?

Tcrose3636
07-16-2012, 12:11 PM
I think trading Willingham makes more sense. I fear that the outfield defense would not be that good with Willingham - Revere - Parmalee, I would rather see Revere - Span - Parmalee. But if we are a few starting pitching free agent signs away to be competitive again, I think keeping them both would make sense. I like the outfield of Willingham - Span - Revere (minus the crap arm strength) but I like the Span, Revere, Mauer, Willingham batting order.

spideyo
07-16-2012, 12:12 PM
And what good do all those homers do for the team that's gonna lose another 90+ games?


Sell tickets.

Also, all those homers might not help the team win a ton this year, but if we can make some serious starting pitching improvements for 2013, all those homers will do wonders when we aren't losing by 5 runs before the 4th inning

nicksaviking
07-16-2012, 12:16 PM
Are we sure that the Twins are't considering trading Revere rathar than Span? There has been no recent talk of it, but Revere's stock was rock bottom after he was sent down to start the season and people on this site were talking about moving him then. His value has gone way up since. During their careers, Span will likely a better OBP guy and can realisitically play all three outfield positions where as Revere would not be considered for RF by 29 teams in the league. However, he's young, cheap, can hit any pitch and could challnege any ballplayer in a foot race. Some teams put speed as one of the top, if not the top attribute for a ball player. Depending on the GM, Revere may get more, possibly a lot more, than Span could in a trade.

minn55441
07-16-2012, 12:19 PM
We've got plenty of prospects in the "speedy centerfield leadoff hitter" mold. We don't exactly have a huge stockpile of Mashers. Plus, Span DOES have a history of head issues, between the concussions and the weird inner-ear issue he had a few years ago, so there is no guarantee that he'll be a long-term solution. Right now we'd be selling pretty high on him.

Other things to consider:
Trading Willingham now sends a bad message to other FA's we want to attract. Basically, we're saying that if you perform well but the team struggles, we're going to send you out immediately. Why would anyone want to be in that situation? People like to play for a contender, but they also like to not switch teams every 5-6 months.

While Willingham could be replaced in the future through FA, Span can be replaced RIGHT NOW with in-house candidates. A whole lot easier to slide Revere over to Center than hope we get lucky finding another guy who can hit homers at Target Field.

Homeruns alone won't win games, but they certainly help, and they definitely drive fan interest. Odds are good that by the end of the season, Willingham will have hit more homers than any other Twin at Target Field in the last three seasons combined (currently Thome holds the record with 21 in a Twins uniform). His batting style is an excellent fit for this park. Are we really ready to dump that?

I agree totally. We need pitching, only give up what can easily be expected to be replaced. The odds of us finding another centerfield/leadoff hitter are much better than ever finding another righthanded power hitter.

Everyone seems to have hit rock bottom because of the 3 game sweep by Oakland, but honestly nothing has changed. We have a competitive team with no starting pitching. Keep the competitive lineup and acquire pitching. We can be competitive next year (maybe not win the division) but competitive enough to be above .500 and be in the wild card mix, if we get some pitching. Spend some money and acquire them through FA, without trading away players we need.

beckmt
07-16-2012, 12:28 PM
Twins hitting will be irrelevant without decent starting pitching. I am for trading anything for pitching that can miss bats. Clubs like Toronto and Oakland have learned to swing hard against the pitch to contact pitchers. When these type of pitchers are slightly off their pitches end up in the bleachers. No club can survive 5.5 starting pitching ERA. If you figure that only maybe 10 - 20% will ever make or do well in the major leagues- the twins need numbers of good arms to find the right pitchers.

chopper0080
07-16-2012, 12:31 PM
Trade Span, Liriano and Capps (if possible) if you get offered legitimate pitching prospects, and if not, trade Span in the winter, make a qualifying offer to Liriano, and decide if picking up Capps option makes us a better team than not.

DPJ
07-16-2012, 12:45 PM
Sell tickets.

Also, all those homers might not help the team win a ton this year, but if we can make some serious starting pitching improvements for 2013, all those homers will do wonders when we aren't losing by 5 runs before the 4th inning

The only way the Twins are gonna compete in the next couple seasons is to pay out the ass for Grienke, Hamels and everyother functioning pitcher on the market. Since there's a less then zero % chance the Twins will break the bank for even one of those guys I don't see how this team is suppose to suddenly suppose to rebuild an entire rotation in a season.

spideyo
07-16-2012, 12:46 PM
We all need to remember to, that unlike last year, not a single one of our position players will hit Free Agency at the end of the season. In fact, Pavano and Liriano are the only guys who will be eligible for FA that don't have a club option.

So basically, to move ANYBODY right now, they need to decide if the offer is better than what they will get in the off-season. Other teams that are in the basement right now, might see Span/Willingham/Morneau/etc. as potentially valuable pieces to rebuild around, but aren't going to chase after them right now.

glanzer
07-16-2012, 01:10 PM
I'm strongly in favor of keeping Willingham. Aside from his numbers, I think it looks terrible from an organizational standpoint to trade a guy in the first year of a three-year contract... it's been said before, but what free agent is going to be comfortable signing here in the future knowing the Twins could just ship them right out the door in a few months. Following Ginger Willingham on Twitter it certainly seems the family loves it in MN... I'm sure Terry Ryan would think twice about the family situation before uprooting the Willinghams and making a trade. Not to say Span isn't in the same situation, but he didn't just uproot his family and move to MN within the past few months.

IdahoPilgrim
07-16-2012, 01:35 PM
If I had to pick between the two, and the offers were the same, I would trade Willingham and keep Span. Span can be part of a winning lineup for years into the future, whereas Willingham is on the wrong side of the bell-curve when it comes to career longevity.

mike wants wins
07-16-2012, 01:45 PM
Both? If both is not an option, I choose Willingham, he's 33 and not always noted for being healthy, and isn't great in the field. I'm operating under the assumption they won't sign a bunch of FAs, so they won't be good again next year, so the only way to get better is to have lots of guys in high A, or AA, that all come up together.

snepp
07-16-2012, 01:54 PM
Sell tickets.

Wins sell tickets, not homers.

Brock Beauchamp
07-16-2012, 01:58 PM
The Twins need Willingham's right handed bat more than they need Span's glove so I say trade Span.

But really, it all depends on what teams are willing to pay for each.

bronald3030
07-16-2012, 02:46 PM
Trade Span and prospects for Shields.

PMKI
07-16-2012, 03:22 PM
Trade them both.

USAFChief
07-16-2012, 03:44 PM
The Twins need Willingham's right handed bat more than they need Span's glove so I say trade Span.

But really, it all depends on what teams are willing to pay for each.

Concur.

Mayhem25
07-16-2012, 04:12 PM
Trade Span. Revere has shown in the minors he can hit and it looks like he's starting to figure it out in the Majors. This is just my opinion, but I think Span is avg defensively at best and wouldn't be hurt on defense by trading him. I'm sure the metrics say otherwise but the test I see a tentative OF who rarely is aggressive going after balls.

papabaseball
07-16-2012, 04:18 PM
Presuming there are equally reasonable offers for both: Who would you prefer to go and who to stay? I would vote to keep Span and trade Willingham, because of Denard's defense and reliable record as a leadoff hitter. Trading Willngham opens up left field for the weak armed but speedy Ben Revere. The Twins have Trevor Plouffe to provide power from the right side of the plate, Aaron Hicks may develop power as a switch hitter (he's showing some power in AA-Ball) and it's likely that a right handed power-DH will be available in future free agency.

You must not watch or read about the Twin's games.Span has very non-productive at bats and is a horrible fielder. Willingham has only been best twin player so far this year.

Vervehound
07-16-2012, 04:35 PM
Trade them both.

ryan deserves praise for signing willingham and those that point out we can't develop power hitters are right, but it really doesn't make much sense to keep him as he won't be here when we're competitive next. he makes this team slightly less unpleasant to watch, but that shouldn't be a criteria for keeping him.

span's redundant and is a prime asset right now with his age and contract. show that the organization knows how to maximize value on something and sell high.

it's more of a kick in the nuts to the fans to keep anything resembling the status quo. blow up whatever you need and get some goddamn arms in house.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-16-2012, 05:19 PM
and decide if picking up Capps option makes us a better team than not.

It won't.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-16-2012, 05:23 PM
ryan deserves praise for signing willingham and those that point out we can't develop power hitters are right, but it really doesn't make much sense to keep him as he won't be here when we're competitive next.

There is zero reason why this team can't be competitive in 2014 (Willingham's final year), and there is a decent chance we can be competitive in 2013 if Ryan keeps up the good work. They should have 25-30 mil to spend next off-season (even more if they trade Span) and quite a bit more when Morneau's money comes off the book prior to 2014. I'd be pretty dissapointed if we don't win the division in 2014.

In addition Willingham has already stated he likes Minnesota and could see himself with the team even after his contract ends. (per mlbtraderumors)

drjim
07-16-2012, 07:45 PM
If offers were the same I would trade Span, as I think Willingham is a more valuable player and Span is more easily replaceable.

I guess I don't get the speed to trade Willingham. He fills an obvious need for the team and I would think the team would take a hit with the casual fan if they trade him. It's possible he gets seriously injured but it's also possible he hits relatively the same for the next calender year and you can move him at next deadline as well for pretty much the same package you'll get right now.

TheLeviathan
07-16-2012, 09:09 PM
There is zero reason why this team can't be competitive in 2014 (Willingham's final year)

Unlikely and even if so you are aware of how old Willingham will be right? This in addition to the fact that he has not been a durable player in his career. I love Hammer and what he's brought to the team, but if he's got high value around the league you deal him. Ditto Span - you don't trade just to trade, but if the value is there you make the move.

Vervehound
07-16-2012, 09:16 PM
There is zero reason why this team can't be competitive in 2014 (Willingham's final year), and there is a decent chance we can be competitive in 2013 if Ryan keeps up the good work. They should have 25-30 mil to spend next off-season (even more if they trade Span) and quite a bit more when Morneau's money comes off the book prior to 2014. I'd be pretty dissapointed if we don't win the division in 2014.

In addition Willingham has already stated he likes Minnesota and could see himself with the team even after his contract ends. (per mlbtraderumors)

how? what's your rotation going to be in 2014? the only way you're going to be competitive by then is by bringing a bunch of high minor arms into the system this year (which is unrealistic - quality arms in the high minors would fetch a premium. wheeler wouldn't have even qualified as such last year) and don't say free agency! we have exactly one arm in our system right now who i'm more than 50% assured will be in our rotation that year and he's busy dominating for the red wings right now.

J-Dog Dungan
07-16-2012, 09:49 PM
Seems like Span has been having some trouble concentrating recently, but I would hope that he would be able to overcome it enough to get traded. I think that if I were the Twins, I would be playing Parmalee in RF a lot down in AAA. I also agree with everyone who says that the Twins should keep Willingham; it would send a horrible message if they did deal him, and his bat overcomes his problems in the field.

Highabove
07-16-2012, 09:53 PM
how? what's your rotation going to be in 2014? the only way you're going to be competitive by then is by bringing a bunch of high minor arms into the system this year (which is unrealistic - quality arms in the high minors would fetch a premium. wheeler wouldn't have even qualified as such last year) and don't say free agency! we have exactly one arm in our system right now who i'm more than 50% assured will be in our rotation that year and he's busy dominating for the red wings right now.

Why not say free Agency! There is 25 million coming off the books next year. The Twins are no longer a small market Franchise. If you are not sure, go to Target Field and check out the prices.

diehardtwinsfan
07-16-2012, 09:55 PM
With some decent starting pitching, there's 0 reason to think this team won't be somewhat competitve next season, at the very least enough to keep TF full. If you get blown away for both of them, obviously deal them as the Hicks/Benson/Arcia group will likely replace their production by 2014. That said, I'd go into the deadline planning on trading one. I suspect Span will net the most value, and he's probably the most replacable as well, so my intention would be to deal Denard. A 2013 OF of Willingham/Revere/Parmalee should produce on the offensive side of things. Sans Revere, it might be a bit weak defensively.

70charger
07-17-2012, 12:46 AM
Other things to consider:
Trading Willingham now sends a bad message to other FA's we want to attract. Basically, we're saying that if you perform well but the team struggles, we're going to send you out immediately. Why would anyone want to be in that situation? People like to play for a contender, but they also like to not switch teams every 5-6 months.

I think this is pretty important.

jorgenswest
07-17-2012, 01:28 AM
This is exactly the right time to trade Willingham. He is healthy and hitting. His value will never be greater than it is this July. He is very likely to have regressed or have health trouble this time next year.

Top Gun
07-17-2012, 01:35 AM
I think everyone is trade happy.

kab21
07-17-2012, 01:40 AM
Why not say free Agency! There is 25 million coming off the books next year. The Twins are no longer a small market Franchise. If you are not sure, go to Target Field and check out the prices.

How much better would the Twins be with 1-2 Mark Buehrle's or CJ Wilson's? They signed for 4/48 and 5/75 and that is the type of starter the Twins can buy in FA. They won't go after Hamels/Greinke.

Trade both of them if the offer is good enough.

USAFChief
07-17-2012, 01:44 AM
How much better would the Twins be with 1-2 Mark Buehrle's or CJ Wilson's? They signed for 4/48 and 5/75 and that is the type of starter the Twins can buy in FA. They won't go after Hamels/Greinke.

Trade both of them if the offer is good enough.

Wilson is 9-5 with 118 innings of 2.43 ball.

Buehrle is 9-8 with 120 innings of 3.13 ball.

Yeah...they wouldn't have made the Twins any better.

Side note: Liriano leads the Twins starters in IP, BTW, and is 2nd in ERA, even with his horrendous start.

No room for him either, on this team I guess.

Brock Beauchamp
07-17-2012, 07:10 AM
How much better would the Twins be with 1-2 Mark Buehrle's or CJ Wilson's? They signed for 4/48 and 5/75 and that is the type of starter the Twins can buy in FA. They won't go after Hamels/Greinke.

Trade both of them if the offer is good enough.

CJ Wilson is the type of guy the Twins need to target (though he was a little on the pricey side). I think the Twins' success will be from signing two second tier pitchers for the price of a Greinke or Hamels (assuming the good Greinke hits the market, not the bad one).

Pitching is too volatile for a mid-market team to dump $120m+ on one guy.

kab21
07-17-2012, 10:29 AM
Wilson is 9-5 with 118 innings of 2.43 ball.

Buehrle is 9-8 with 120 innings of 3.13 ball.

Yeah...they wouldn't have made the Twins any better.

Side note: Liriano leads the Twins starters in IP, BTW, and is 2nd in ERA, even with his horrendous start.

No room for him either, on this team I guess.

They've had a nice first half but in the end they are 3.50-4.00 ERA pitchers. The Twins are 12 games under .500 after 89 games. Even if they signed both they would still be under .500 and these contracts are going to look really bad when each of these pitchers is 37. That's the problem with FA.

mike wants wins
07-17-2012, 10:37 AM
Umm, an ERA of 3.5-4 is well better than the median....those are valuable pitchers.

kab21
07-17-2012, 10:59 AM
Umm, an ERA of 3.5-4 is well better than the median....those are valuable pitchers.

Of course they are valuable to have but you need to think further about this.

the Twins are likely to finish 20 games below .500. Even if the Twins signed both of them would they make up the difference?

What happens when they turn into Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett at the end of the contract (or beginning?)? At that point the Twins won't have any payroll flexibility with 50M tied up between Mauer and two 35+ yr pitchers. That is a recipe for long-term disaster just to battle back to .500.

mike wants wins
07-17-2012, 11:14 AM
By your logic, you never sign a free agent, as none ever take you over the line. Will these two alone fix the twins? No. But you need to add players. And there are nit enough in the minors to do that. And if you want quality, you have to overpay in terms of years. That is the market.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
07-17-2012, 11:30 AM
I'd trade Span because the Twins need Willingham's power. Revere and Span are both really Centerfielders and it makes sense to have one. Mastroianni would move into a starting role. Darin's production resembles Denard Span's more than Willingham's and I think he makes the loss very minimal.

Winston Smith
07-17-2012, 11:50 AM
Is contraction still an option?

Shane Wahl
07-17-2012, 12:03 PM
How much better would the Twins be with 1-2 Mark Buehrle's or CJ Wilson's? They signed for 4/48 and 5/75 and that is the type of starter the Twins can buy in FA. They won't go after Hamels/Greinke.

Trade both of them if the offer is good enough.

Buehlre's most recent contract was 4/58, actually. It was early-ish in the off-season and a strangely high price, I think. I was thinking 4/44 for him.

But yes, technically, the Twins could sign a very good pitcher for $15 million and a good pitcher for $10 million. I imagine that only one of those happens (and frankly, let's hope for that). Trading in the off-season for a guy still in his arbitration years like Clayton Richard or a similar type can be a better alternative to signing the Jason Marquis kind. Richard would probably cost $10 million for two years before he becomes a free agent.

I am sure there are other names like that too. He was just the one I know.

Shane Wahl
07-17-2012, 12:04 PM
Do people not realize that trading away your MLB assets to make up for MLB liabilities leaves the team right the hell where they were!

scottz
07-17-2012, 12:42 PM
To answer the question as posed, Span - even though I'm a big fan - for no additional reasons not already stated earlier.

DPJ
07-17-2012, 12:53 PM
Do people not realize that trading away your MLB assets to make up for MLB liabilities leaves the team right the hell where they were!

Exactly, they're a garbage team with these valuable assets, why not trade them cause you won't get any better while they're under contract and get some prospects that can help hopefully once they're good again.

PseudoSABR
07-17-2012, 03:15 PM
Exactly, they're a garbage team with these valuable assets, why not trade them cause you won't get any better while they're under contract and get some prospects that can help hopefully once they're good again.
Supposedly the team couldn't compete after 2008 either, but they managed two more playoff runs in 09 and 10. It's not impossible to see the team competing next year and especially the year after. The lineup even sans Span or Willingham will be able to produce runs. Of course, out ability to compete depends on acquiring durable top-of-the-rotation starters, but we might get that cheaply by resigning Baker, and developing a healthy Gibson. Hendricks and Diamond can probably fill out the rotation. This is a rather glib sketch, but the Twins being competitive over the next two seasons isn't as far fetched as you're making it.

That said, if TR gets blown away by offers for either or both, he should take the deals. As others have said, Span is more replaceable, so I'd rather trade him and keep Willingham.

Brock Beauchamp
07-17-2012, 03:18 PM
Supposedly the team couldn't compete after 2008 either, but they managed two more playoff runs in 09 and 10. It's not impossible to see the team competing next year and especially the year after. The lineup even sans Span or Willingham will be able to produce runs. Of course, out ability to compete depends on acquiring durable top-of-the-rotation starters, but we might get that cheaply by resigning Baker, and developing a healthy Gibson. Hendricks and Diamond can probably fill out the rotation. This is a rather glib sketch, but the Twins being competitive over the next two seasons isn't as far fetched as you're making it.

That said, if TR gets blown away by offers for either or both, he should take the deals. As others have said, Span is more replaceable, so I'd rather trade him and keep Willingham.

The no good liberal hippie communist basically said what I've been trying to say for three pages. I'm just going to cut and paste his response from here on out.

kab21
07-17-2012, 11:38 PM
By your logic, you never sign a free agent, as none ever take you over the line. Will these two alone fix the twins? No. But you need to add players. And there are nit enough in the minors to do that. And if you want quality, you have to overpay in terms of years. That is the market.

The logic is that rebuilding thru FA is a terrible option. There is only so much FA can do for a 65-70 win team and you can't just throw dollars at it to fix it without affecting the future. FA makes sense when you can spend like the Yankees, when you keep contracts small/short (the Willingham/Doumit/Carroll contracts) or when you are an 85 win team needing that final push.

TheLeviathan
07-17-2012, 11:48 PM
The lineup even sans Span or Willingham will be able to produce runs.

Except that we're a middle-of-the-pack offense with Willingham having a career year, Mauer at full health, and surprising production from Revere and Plouffe. I think we have a tendency to inflate the perception of the offense in part because of how bad the pitching is. They appear better than they really are by comparison with the team's weak points when it really is quite average even with a lot of things breaking right. I don't think it's impossible for this team to contend, but if you can get good offers on these guys (read: not single A flyers, but guys who can contribute and are talented) - then you deal them. And I wouldn't be stubborn about it either.

Also just to note - I agree Span is more replaceable on our roster, but his contract is very valuable and his skillset is more rare around the league than many think. We seem to be tossing the idea of moving him around pretty lightly on the basis of a few hundred Ben Revere at-bats while simultaneously ignoring Willingham's last 5 years of injuries and production. At least that's how it is coming off.

Shane Wahl
07-18-2012, 12:10 AM
Can peeps take a full, wholistic view of this!? Trading your MLB assets for MLB liabilities doesn't make the MLB team better. I am not one to throw the 2013 season away. Sorry. Hell, outside of the Baker injury and the complete failure of Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis, this season wouldn't have been lost either.

So, there are a few things to do. A: Not throw away this rather productive offense comprised of players all young enough to be relevant through at least 2014 (and Willingham-of-the-future haters need to recognize that 2011 and 2012 have meant significant increases in production . . . and his TF performance is very good . . . no DOMINANT). And Denard Span WITH Revere makes for a great 1-2 punch. Great. There are not that many teams who actually can produce 1-7 like this team can no. Why on earth would you sell some of that for AA pitching prospects?

B: Sign two pitchers and spend the damn money. Justin Morneau is most likely not coming back after next season, or if he is, it will be for less money. Nick Blackburn's stupid contract is finally done after next season. The Twins can spend 25 million on pitching for 2013 and see a decrease in payroll in 2014! That is important. They could go back to 2011 payroll numbers in 2013 and basically back to 2012 payroll numbers in 2014. And certainly Willingham, Span and others could be traded either at the deadline next year or in the offseason.

C: Trade Liriano or offer him the $12 million and hope that he declines so they get the picks. He will get the Twins something valuable in A+ at least in a trade.

D: The misery of the Twins system with regard to SP prospects is seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. Gibson and Stuifbergen are back pitching. Bromberg is working it out. Hendriks is dominating AAA. Hopefully Wimmers is viable in 2013 at some point (any update?). Hermsen is another interesting possibilty. Rochester 2013 might have a starting rotation (of 6 candidates) at the beginning of the season of Hendriks, Gibson, Bromberg, Stuifbergen, Wimmers, and Hermsen (assuming some FA signings). That's vastly different than Walters, DeVries, and Deduno.

E: There are plenty of at bats between RF, LF, 1B, C, and DH for Revere, Willingham, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit and X current prospect (Parmelee, Herrmann, Arcia, Benson, Hicks).

F: Stop nay-saying. Good god.

TheLeviathan
07-18-2012, 12:18 AM
Sign two pitchers and spend the damn money.

Well jeez, if I knew it was that easy.....

Sometimes you simply don't have enough major league talent to compete and holding out hope of multiple significant free agents signings to fix that is a bleak/foolish one at best. When that time comes and you can get good value in trades that will align young talent outside your system (pitching) with what you have already (bats) - then you do that. The old saying of "one step back to take two steps forward" is the idea.

Shane Wahl
07-18-2012, 12:45 AM
Well jeez, if I knew it was that easy.....

Sometimes you simply don't have enough major league talent to compete and holding out hope of multiple significant free agents signings to fix that is a bleak/foolish one at best. When that time comes and you can get good value in trades that will align young talent outside your system (pitching) with what you have already (bats) - then you do that. The old saying of "one step back to take two steps forward" is the idea.

Why don't you actually respond to the full post instead of quoting one sentence?

TheLeviathan
07-18-2012, 12:58 AM
Why don't you actually respond to the full post instead of quoting one sentence?

Because it was far too long to take point by point. The current offense is average. It won't be getting any better in the near future (2013) without outside help. The pitching is awful and it has even more limited options inside the organization for help.

So trade some of what you have in current assets that will be replaced internally by 2013/2014 for help in the areas the organization has dire need of (middle infield and pitching) for that same time frame. You can call it "throwing away" 2013 but if you're moving in the direction of a plan you can excuse non-contention. The absolute worst thing you can do is be a bad team (like this one) and think relying on free agency alone can fix your ills.

Shane Wahl
07-18-2012, 01:09 AM
Because it was far too long to take point by point. The current offense is average. It won't be getting any better in the near future (2013) without outside help. The pitching is awful and it has even more limited options inside the organization for help.

So trade some of what you have in current assets that will be replaced internally by 2013/2014 for help in the areas the organization has dire need of (middle infield and pitching) for that same time frame. You can call it "throwing away" 2013 but if you're moving in the direction of a plan you can excuse non-contention. The absolute worst thing you can do is be a bad team (like this one) and think relying on free agency alone can fix your ills.

The current offense is not average, at least not 1-7.

What I think a lot of people are not realizing is that adding 1-2 top-line pitchers (say a 1 and a 3) this year wouldn't mean much more than 6 wins or so, but doing so with the potential rotation next year means 10-12 wins total. A full usage of Revere, Plouffe and figuring out another roster spot for an offensive contributor will mean 2-3 more wins.

When you don't respond in full and just nit-pick, it just isn't going to work for me. I am not going to take you seriously.

Also, trading Willingham and Span, given their contracts, in 2013 is going to bring back more than they are right now. So there's that (only assuming that two OFs out of Hicks, Benson, and Arcia are ready).

TheLeviathan
07-18-2012, 01:12 AM
The current offense is not average, at least not 1-7.

Shall I post the current standing of the Twins offense or are you capable of checking that yourself?


What I think a lot of people are not realizing is that adding 1-2 top-line pitchers (say a 1 and a 3).

Are we shelling out 200+ million for this or just using your proposal in the other thread to throw AAA filler at adding quality talent? At some point, being realistic is pretty important to being taken seriously as well. Your entire post hinged on the claim we can just add a 1 and a 3 without giving up any major league talent - so presumably by trade or free agency. That's, um, a rather ridiculous suggestion.

PseudoSABR
07-18-2012, 02:06 AM
This average offense has been 7th to 6th in WAR in all of MLB since the beginning of June. Yes, small sample size, but that sample size also has Plouffe and Revere playing everyday. Are we the bottom fifth offense of April/May? No. But we're probably not quite as good as lately either, but there's reason to believe we'll be top 10 (a top third in league/all of baseball), which I suppose could be construed to be average, save that we hit in a pitcher's park. Our offense need only be 'statistically' average if our pitching talent is actually average to compete (thanks AL Central!), because of our home park. Having a statically average (or rather top third) offense in Target Field is a boon, any way you cut it.

The Twins would be stupid not to capitalize on the offense in 2013 and 2014.

kryptik
07-18-2012, 03:52 AM
No point in going crazy this summer about immediate fixes. All the assets we have now should be more valuable next year's trade deadline, which is when we'll hopefully be either making a run or going into full scale fire sale mode. Either way we are going to keep dragging along this season and net ourselves some good draft picks in all likelihood which can't hurt. I don't think this team is as far out of contending as many seem to think, but at some point we are going to have to refocus the organizations' pitching philosophy to fit Target Field. We need some top of the rotation talent to be competitive from FA and I'm confident the farm can fill in the holes well.

TheLeviathan
07-18-2012, 06:27 AM
This average offense has been 7th to 6th in WAR in all of MLB since the beginning of June. Yes, small sample size, but that sample size also has Plouffe and Revere playing everyday. Are we the bottom fifth offense of April/May? No. But we're probably not quite as good as lately either, but there's reason to believe we'll be top 10 (a top third in league/all of baseball), which I suppose could be construed to be average.

WAR seems to be an odd stat to choose to measure this. I can't find a site that lets me order team stats in such a way, but by OPS and runs scored this team over the course of the entire season has been average. Could they be slightly above average going forward....sure, but there are plenty of reasons to question the last month and a half as sustainable.

Even if this offense can be around 10th in the league, it's still a razor thin margin of error going forward to be an average hitting and average pitching team. And that's if we can actually rely on FA and returning injured players to boost our pitching in 2013 to average. Worse yet, we'd be electing to take that slim chance with no margin for error at the expense of an opportunity now to utilize very marketable talent that we could deal to help reduce our future organizational weak points. That trade-off doesn't seem worth it. (But again, I'm not saying dump just to dump. The offers for guys like Span and Hammer need to address need with legit talent)

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 07:11 AM
Why on earth would you sell some of that for AA pitching prospects?

Because the team has two centerfielders on the roster, a host of centerfielders in AA, a decent offense, and an absolutely wretched, awful, last in baseball starting rotation.

The concept of "net gain" shouldn't be that hard to grasp. Trading Span does very little to damage the team's offense but it does a mountain of good if Span is replaced with a better than league average starter.

And in case you haven't noticed, starting pitching is the hardest thing to pick up on the FA market. You end up overpaying in both money and years to get an average guy that has a good chance of ending the contract either ineffective, on the DL, or both. I'm not against the Twins going after one guy on the market but two? That's just throwing money at a problem that probably can't be fixed externally... Not in one year, anyway. Pick up one starter this offseason, another the next, and round out the rotation with Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, and maybe a starter for Span.

Shane Wahl
07-18-2012, 07:26 AM
Because the team has two centerfielders on the roster, a host of centerfielders in AA, a decent offense, and an absolutely wretched, awful, last in baseball starting rotation.

The concept of "net gain" shouldn't be that hard to grasp. Trading Span does very little to damage the team's offense but it does a mountain of good if Span is replaced with a better than league average starter.

And in case you haven't noticed, starting pitching is the hardest thing to pick up on the FA market. You end up overpaying in both money and years to get an average guy that has a good chance of ending the contract either ineffective, on the DL, or both. I'm not against the Twins going after one guy on the market but two? That's just throwing money at a problem that probably can't be fixed externally... Not in one year, anyway. Pick up one starter this offseason, another the next, and round out the rotation with Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, and maybe a starter for Span.

Span is not merely a CF, he is also the leadoff hitter. I am not sold on Ben Revere filling that role as of yet, and even if I were, that still merely moves him from position at the top of the order to another. And there is no clear indication that Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson are going to be ready to be Twins at the beginning or middle or even end of next season.

"Trading Span does very little damage to the team's offense"--that's false. Rather blatantly false.

The FA market is going to be pretty good this coming year. And it isn't like Edwin Jackson was going to break the bank (as an example from this year). Marcum, Dempster, etc. are not going to break the bank next year or the the next few. I would also look at trading for a still-in-arbitration-years guy if nothing else. Adding two good-very good pitchers for $20 million isn't impossible at all.

Shane Wahl
07-18-2012, 07:27 AM
This average offense has been 7th to 6th in WAR in all of MLB since the beginning of June. Yes, small sample size, but that sample size also has Plouffe and Revere playing everyday. Are we the bottom fifth offense of April/May? No. But we're probably not quite as good as lately either, but there's reason to believe we'll be top 10 (a top third in league/all of baseball), which I suppose could be construed to be average, save that we hit in a pitcher's park. Our offense need only be 'statistically' average if our pitching talent is actually average to compete (thanks AL Central!), because of our home park. Having a statically average (or rather top third) offense in Target Field is a boon, any way you cut it.

The Twins would be stupid not to capitalize on the offense in 2013 and 2014.

Precisely.

Shane Wahl
07-18-2012, 07:29 AM
WAR seems to be an odd stat to choose to measure this. I can't find a site that lets me order team stats in such a way, but by OPS and runs scored this team over the course of the entire season has been average. Could they be slightly above average going forward....sure, but there are plenty of reasons to question the last month and a half as sustainable.

Even if this offense can be around 10th in the league, it's still a razor thin margin of error going forward to be an average hitting and average pitching team. And that's if we can actually rely on FA and returning injured players to boost our pitching in 2013 to average. Worse yet, we'd be electing to take that slim chance with no margin for error at the expense of an opportunity now to utilize very marketable talent that we could deal to help reduce our future organizational weak points. That trade-off doesn't seem worth it. (But again, I'm not saying dump just to dump. The offers for guys like Span and Hammer need to address need with legit talent)

Over the course of the entire season, yes. But no one was talking about that, were they? Going forward is what matters.

Fire Dan Gladden
07-18-2012, 07:57 AM
A question back on point...

If replacing Willingham's numbers is such an easy thing to do, why is everybody hyperventilating ove what he has done so far? I would contend that right-handed power hitting outfielders that come relatively cheaply are not that easy to acquire. Why else is would he be such a hot commodity in the trade market right now?

Vervehound
07-18-2012, 07:59 AM
Span is not merely a CF, he is also the leadoff hitter. I am not sold on Ben Revere filling that role as of yet, and even if I were, that still merely moves him from position at the top of the order to another. And there is no clear indication that Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson are going to be ready to be Twins at the beginning or middle or even end of next season.

"Trading Span does very little damage to the team's offense"--that's false. Rather blatantly false.

The FA market is going to be pretty good this coming year. And it isn't like Edwin Jackson was going to break the bank (as an example from this year). Marcum, Dempster, etc. are not going to break the bank next year or the the next few. I would also look at trading for a still-in-arbitration-years guy if nothing else. Adding two good-very good pitchers for $20 million isn't impossible at all.

one of the problematic things with your argument(s) is that you're not doing a very good job of conceptualizing the odds. even if the twins were interested in spending $25 million on a couple of free agent starters this year, there is no guarantee that they'd be able to lure them, not to mention a guy like dempster (who will be 36 y.o. , btw). are you going to keep your franchise from moving on and building assets for a small chance to land two quailty pitchers, one who will likely be on a steep production decline, and will still only give you two/fifths of a quality rotation? sounds like a bill smith move. the better value is clearly building with young talent whose better years are ahead of them and afford salary flexibility. i appreciate your optimism and you can be all in and compete every year - it's possible, but not unless your pipeline is full in the minors and ours isn't.

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 08:04 AM
Span is not merely a CF, he is also the leadoff hitter. I am not sold on Ben Revere filling that role as of yet, and even if I were, that still merely moves him from position at the top of the order to another. And there is no clear indication that Aaron Hicks or Joe Benson are going to be ready to be Twins at the beginning or middle or even end of next season.

"Trading Span does very little damage to the team's offense"--that's false. Rather blatantly false.

The FA market is going to be pretty good this coming year. And it isn't like Edwin Jackson was going to break the bank (as an example from this year). Marcum, Dempster, etc. are not going to break the bank next year or the the next few. I would also look at trading for a still-in-arbitration-years guy if nothing else. Adding two good-very good pitchers for $20 million isn't impossible at all.

Edwin Jackson didn't break the bank last season because he took a favorable one year contract so he could break the bank this season. Just like every other offseason, starting pitchers are going to go at a premium.

Again, it's all about team net gain. The dropoff between a Span/Revere/Willingham outfield versus a Revere/Willingham/Parmelee (or a FA Hunter and later filled in by Hicks, Benson, Arcia) is minimal compared to the gain you will get from replacing Sam-&^%$ing-Deduno with a real starting pitcher.

I'm not crazy about the idea of trading away valuable players. But I am interested in making this a better team moving forward. With all the outfield prospects coming through the system, it makes sense to trade off a piece while it's valuable to fill a gaping hole in starting pitching, a hole that will not be filled solely through free agency. The Twins simply need too many pitchers. To find enough on the FA market to compete, they'd have to drop $30m+ on FA pitching in 2013. Do you really expect them to do that?

Finding a corner outfielder on the FA market is one of the easiest things to do for a general manager. Finding a starting pitcher on the FA market is the hardest thing to do, period. Finding multiple quality starting pitchers is pretty much impossible, even if you're the Yankees.

mike wants wins
07-18-2012, 08:21 AM
Willinham is their biggest free agent signing ever. 21 million for three years. Do people really think they will go out and sign two big time pitchers this offseason? They need to make some trades.

Brock Beauchamp
07-18-2012, 08:25 AM
Willinham is their biggest free agent signing ever. 21 million for three years. Do people really think they will go out and sign two big time pitchers this offseason? They need to make some trades.

This.

1. It's unlikely that the Twins will spend the $25m+ (per season) required to sign two quality FA starters.

2. It's unlikely that the Twins will be able to attract two quality FA starters.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-18-2012, 08:58 AM
Random thought: Joe Mauer would make a hell of a leadoff hitter.

TheLeviathan
07-18-2012, 09:47 AM
Willinham is their biggest free agent signing ever. 21 million for three years. Do people really think they will go out and sign two big time pitchers this offseason? They need to make some trades.

Didn't you hear? We can combo Waldrop, Slama, and a few other AAA filler for a quality guy!

TheLeviathan
07-18-2012, 09:51 AM
Over the course of the entire season, yes. But no one was talking about that, were they? Going forward is what matters.

Going forward we can be concerned about the health of Mauer, the health and age of Willingham, the fact that Plouffe's June is highly unlikely, Revere's walk rate and BABIP, Carroll's June spike, and Doumit's .800 OPS June. Just cherry-picking one month to project a year or more in the future is rife with potential problems. Could all those things maintain? Absolutely, and I hope many of them do.

But this team is still facing a major pitching shortage for the next few years and banking on sinking 100-200 million dollars to fix that in the offseason is ludicrous. Everyone is always looking for pitching, it's not like we'll have the market cornered.

chopper0080
07-18-2012, 11:26 AM
Random thought: Joe Mauer would make a hell of a leadoff hitter.

I don't disagree with this thought, though he doesn't have great speed and it is too unconventional for the Twins to try. Other than a lack of speed, what more could you want. The amount of pitches he sees alone would make it worth it. Seriously, how frustrating would it be for an opposing pitcher to have a 9-12 pitch first at bat to start a game?

Shane Wahl
07-18-2012, 12:12 PM
Going forward we can be concerned about the health of Mauer, the health and age of Willingham, the fact that Plouffe's June is highly unlikely, Revere's walk rate and BABIP, Carroll's June spike, and Doumit's .800 OPS June. Just cherry-picking one month to project a year or more in the future is rife with potential problems. Could all those things maintain? Absolutely, and I hope many of them do.

But this team is still facing a major pitching shortage for the next few years and banking on sinking 100-200 million dollars to fix that in the offseason is ludicrous. Everyone is always looking for pitching, it's not like we'll have the market cornered.

$100-200 million? I am not talking about Greinke or Hamels or Anibal Sanchez. I would say that this year's FA market other than the Buerhle deal was fairly reasonable. Dempster is not going to need more than 3 years. Marcum at 4/50 is likely the top end for him. Even getting two guys like that can be done for under $100, and that wasn't even what I was talking about doing! No need to exaggerate.

TheLeviathan
07-18-2012, 12:44 PM
So you plan to convince a 36 year old career NL pitcher to come to the AL's worst team and then convince Marcum to join the same awful AL team? Yeah I'm sure we will be the highlight team for both of them. If we get Marcum I'd be happy but more than that is unlikely at best.

Fire Dan Gladden
07-18-2012, 07:19 PM
I don't disagree with this thought, though he doesn't have great speed and it is too unconventional for the Twins to try. Other than a lack of speed, what more could you want. The amount of pitches he sees alone would make it worth it. Seriously, how frustrating would it be for an opposing pitcher to have a 9-12 pitch first at bat to start a game?

Agreed. I wonder if the time will come when a manager truly puts his batting order from best hitter to worst hitter. Going on the premise that each spot in the order is worth about 15 at-bats over the year, how that would compare to a more traditional lineup.

Badsmerf
07-18-2012, 09:01 PM
I'm glad I've avoided this thread.

Shane Wahl
07-19-2012, 12:30 AM
So you plan to convince a 36 year old career NL pitcher to come to the AL's worst team and then convince Marcum to join the same awful AL team? Yeah I'm sure we will be the highlight team for both of them. If we get Marcum I'd be happy but more than that is unlikely at best.

A: he is 35 and still very good.
B: he chose to stay with the horrible Cubs this year.
C: the Twins are not as terrible as you seem to wish them to be (now or in 2013, 2014, and 2015).
D: I wouldn't count on getting both, no. But trying to actually improve the team without trading away offense (and ending up even in the W-L column between 2012 and 2013) seems worth a try. The trade-Span crowd underestimates what he actually does for the Twins.

old nurse
07-19-2012, 01:54 AM
I'm glad I've avoided this thread.
I agree. There is not much good that one can say about the posts.