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Curt
07-12-2012, 12:55 PM
Ben Revere draws very few walks. His BB% is 4.4% compared to the league average of 8.3%. That is a fact demonstrated by the data.

I have read a number of comments that he has poor plate discipline or is overly aggressive. Do the stats support this as well?

Does he swing at too many pitches?


1. His o-Swing% (swings at pitches outside of strike zone) is very average. 29.6% compared to league average of 29.7%.

2. His z-Swing% (swings at pitches inside the strike zone) is pretty low. 51.6% compared to league average of 63.9%.

3. Overall, his Swing% is 39.9%. League average is 45.2%.


Then why doesn't he draw walks? Because he hits the ball and puts it in play.


1. His o-Contact% (makes contact with pitches swung at outside the strike zone) is 82.4%. The league average is 68.1%.

2. His z-Contact% (makes contact with pitches swung at inside the strike zone) is 98.4% (!). The league average is 87.4%.

3. His overall Contact% is 92.1%. The league average is 80.5%.

4. His foul-ball strike percentage is 19% while the league average is 27%.

5. His ball-in-play percentage is 39% while the league average is 30%.


So, he doesn't draw walks because he makes contact at a high rate and puts the ball in play at a high rate when he does make contact. He literally is too good at putting the ball in play!

Can he draw more walks. Maybe. How about this?


1. Improve o-Swing. As a low power hitter, he needs to be more selective than the average player. Plouffe 28.3%, Mauer 24.7%, Carroll 23.4 (18.4% for career), Span 21.9% and Willingham 20.5% all have better percentages than Revere.

2. Work at fouling off borderline pitches rather than put them in play. This will lengthen the at-bat improving the opportunity to get four balls.

Riverbrian
07-12-2012, 01:11 PM
Ben Revere draws very few walks. His BB% is 4.4% compared to the league average of 8.3%. That is a fact demonstrated by the data.

I have read a number of comments that he has poor plate discipline or is overly aggressive. Do the stats support this as well?

Does he swing at too many pitches?

1. His o-Swing% (swings at pitches outside of strike zone) is very average. 29.6% compared to league average of 29.7%.

2. His z-Swing% (swings at pitches inside the strike zone) is pretty low. 51.6% compared to league average of 63.9%.

3. Overall, his Swing% is 39.9%. League average is 45.2%.


Then why doesn't he draw walks? Because he hits the ball and puts it in play.

1. His o-Contact% (makes contact with pitches swung at outside the strike zone) is 82.4%. The league average is 68.1%.

2. His z-Contact% (makes contact with pitches swung at inside the strike zone) is 98.4% (!). The league average is 87.4%.

3. His overall Contact% is 92.1%. The league average is 80.5%.

4. His foul-ball strike percentage is 19% while the league average is 27%.

5. His ball-in-play percentage is 39% while the league average is 30%.


So, he doesn't draw walks because he makes contact at a high rate and puts the ball in play at a high rate when he does make contact. He literally is too good at putting the ball in play!

Can he draw more walks. Maybe. How about this?

1. Improve o-Swing. As a low power hitter, he needs to be more selective than the average player. Plouffe 28.3%, Mauer 24.7%, Carroll 23.4 (18.4% for career), Span 21.9% and Willingham 20.5% all have better percentages than Revere.

2. Work at fouling off borderline pitches rather than put them in play. This will lengthen the at-bat improving the opportunity to get four balls.




Nice job Curt.

Do you have any info on the percentage of strikes thrown to Ben in comparison to the league average. I could be wrong but I suspect that Ben sees more strikes than average and that will also add to his lack of walks.

Regardless, fouling off some pitches will help because in order to get walks you need to see more pitches and if they get put in play with a swing or two... That kinda stops that train.

ALessKosherScott
07-12-2012, 01:15 PM
I don't think Revere's plate discipline is a problem at all. His swinging strike percentage is currently sitting at 3.2. To put that in perspective, Mauer is sitting at 4.0%. He doesn't walk because there's no reason for a pitcher to not groove him a meatball when he's down in the count. The worst case scenario is a well-placed ball becomes a double. If he starts hitting more doubles and the odd ball over the fence, his walk rate will jump because pitchers will have to start being a little more fine with their pitches. If not, he's still a useful player.

Riverbrian
07-12-2012, 01:27 PM
I don't think Revere's plate discipline is a problem at all. His swinging strike percentage is currently sitting at 3.2. To put that in perspective, Mauer is sitting at 4.0%. He doesn't walk because there's no reason for a pitcher to not groove him a meatball when he's down in the count. The worst case scenario is a well-placed ball becomes a double. If he starts hitting more doubles and the odd ball over the fence, his walk rate will jump because pitchers will have to start being a little more fine with their pitches. If not, he's still a useful player.

Exactly... I've been driving that point for awhile. I wonder if the stats back that up with a higher strike percentage.

I could be wrong. I'm curious to see if I am.

James
07-12-2012, 01:42 PM
Exactly... I've been driving that point for awhile. I wonder if the stats back that up with a higher strike percentage.

I could be wrong. I'm curious to see if I am.
I would love to see this data as well. We have pretty good anecdotal evidence that pitchers aren't afraid to throw to him, but I would love to see some data behind it.

Curt- This was a very good write up. Thanks for that.

Curt
07-12-2012, 03:37 PM
Do you have any info on the percentage of strikes thrown to Ben in comparison to the league average. I could be wrong but I suspect that Ben sees more strikes than average and that will also add to his lack of walks.


This is from FanGraphs.com as is much of the data I posted above. Zone% is the percent of pitches in the strike zone. I've included all Twins with 100+ PA. This shows Revere sees about 1.5% more strikes than the league average.



Player
Zone%


Parmalee
38.20%


Doumit
41.40%


Morneau
41.70%


Mauer
42.30%


Willingham
44.60%


Casilla
45.10%


Span
46.40%


Revere
46.90%


Plouffe
48.30%


Dozier
49.00%


Carroll
50.10%


Valencia
50.90%








Twins Avg
45.60%


AL Avg
45.38%

diehardtwinsfan
07-12-2012, 04:25 PM
Kind of curious how Plouffe will adjust when he starts seeing less strikes.

John Bonnes
07-12-2012, 04:50 PM
This is from FanGraphs.com as is much of the data I posted above. Zone% is the percent of pitches in the strike zone. I've included all Twins with 100+ PA. This shows Revere sees about 1.5% more strikes than the league average.



Player

Zone%



Parmalee

38.20%



Doumit

41.40%



Morneau

41.70%



Mauer

42.30%



Willingham

44.60%



Casilla

45.10%



Span

46.40%



Revere

46.90%



Plouffe

48.30%



Dozier

49.00%



Carroll

50.10%



Valencia

50.90%











Twins Avg

45.60%



AL Avg

45.38%






That is a lot lower percentage than I would have anticipated. It's weird that Carroll has a higher percentage but comes away with so many additional walks. Is he just more willing to take strike 1 and strike 2 in the hopes that he gets a walk? Is that what is being implied here?

Snortwood
07-12-2012, 05:05 PM
Last year it felt as if 2 or 3 times a game Ben was dribbling it back to the mound. This year he has a game or 2 like that and then BAM! he's getting 3 or 4 hits for a few games and all over the bases true with mostly singles and maybe an occasional walk or hbp. But he's busy on the bases.

Remember - we talk about the best hitters in the world in the MLB (c.f., Nishioka, JLB hitting champ = <.200 MLB) and tend to think there's a way to improve on .320 when, in fact, hitting for a living is very VERY difficult because it's highly competitive out there and if Ben can eliminate one bad thing and add one good thing per year, at that rate we're talking about someone with the aptitude to be an absolutely great HOF maybe Tony Gwynn caliber hitter. Let's repair one thing at a time. This year, eliminate those dribblers back to the mound and let's get hard grounders and liners. Next year, future years, cut back on the fly balls and get some gappers and greater selectivity.

OTOH, if Ben stays about where he's at, a .320 singles hitter with great speed hey! that's awfully good as is and top of the order stuff. Like Bill Wigglestick said, "Striving to better oft we mar what's well."

Curt
07-12-2012, 05:45 PM
That is a lot lower percentage than I would have anticipated. It's weird that Carroll has a higher percentage but comes away with so many additional walks. Is he just more willing to take strike 1 and strike 2 in the hopes that he gets a walk? Is that what is being implied here?

It is interesting to compare Revere to Carroll because, like Revere, he has little power, unlike Revere, Carroll walks a lot, 10.3%.

WARNING: Data overload ahead.





Carroll
Revere
AL Avg

Definition


Pit/PA

3.98
3.47
3.85

Pitches per Plate Appearance


Str%

62%
64%
63%

Strike Percentage. Includes both pitches in the zone and those swung at out of the zone. Strikes / Total Pitches.


L/Str

40%
36%
29%

Strikes Looking / Strikes. All strikes looking divided by all strikes.


S/Str

6%
6%
15%

Swinging Strike Percentage. Strikes Swinging (w/o contact) / Total Strikes.


F/Str

23%
19%
27%

Foul Ball Strikes Percentage. Pitches Fouled Off / Total Strikes Seen.


I/Str

31%
39%
30%

Ball In Play Percentage. Balls put into Play / Total Strikes.


AS/Str

60%
64%
71%

Swung at Strikes Percentage. (Inplay + Foul + Swinging Strikes) / Total Strikes.


I/Bll

0%
0%
1%

Intentional Ball Percentage. Intentional Balls / All Balls.


AS/Pit

37%
41%
45%

Percentage of Pitches Swung At. (Inplay + Foul + Swinging Strikes) / Total Pitches.


Con

90%
91%
79%

Contact Percentage. (Foul + Inplay Strikes) / (Foul + Inplay + Swinging Strikes).


1stS

12%
10%
25%

First Pitch Swinging Percentage. First Pitch Swinging / PA.


L/SO

38%
38%
24%

Strikeout Looking Percentage. Strikeouts Looking / All Strikeouts.











O-Swing%

23.4%
29.6%
29.7%

The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.


Z-Swing%

50.8%
51.6%
63.9%

The percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.


Swing%

37.1%
39.9%
45.2%

The overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at.


O-Contact%

83.7%
82.4%
68.1%

The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat.


Z-Contact%

95.5%
98.4%
87.4%

The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with inside the strike zone when swinging the bat.


Contact%

91.8%
92.1%
80.5%

The overall percentage of a batter makes contact with when swinging the bat.


Zone%


50.1%
46.9%
45.4%

The overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone.


F-Strike%

59.6%
58.6%
59.0%

The percentage of first pitch strikes.


SwStr%

3.0%
3.2%
8.6%

The percentage of total pitches a batter swings and misses on.

drjim
07-12-2012, 05:51 PM
Interesting stuff, thanks for posting Curt.

glunn
07-12-2012, 06:15 PM
This is a very interesting and educational thread. Thanks, Curt.

Riverbrian
07-12-2012, 07:55 PM
This is from FanGraphs.com as is much of the data I posted above. Zone% is the percent of pitches in the strike zone. I've included all Twins with 100+ PA. This shows Revere sees about 1.5% more strikes than the league average.



Player
Zone%


Parmalee
38.20%


Doumit
41.40%


Morneau
41.70%


Mauer
42.30%


Willingham
44.60%


Casilla
45.10%


Span
46.40%


Revere
46.90%


Plouffe
48.30%


Dozier
49.00%


Carroll
50.10%


Valencia
50.90%








Twins Avg
45.60%


AL Avg
45.38%




I stand corrected... Nothing here to support my claim that Ben is getting cookies. Although when you consider that Ben has only struck out 16 times that will obviously lessen his strike percentage because he does not see the third strike typically.

I thnk curt nailed it with his first post. Ben just makes absurd contact. Couple that with his speed and you've got a fun player.

If he keeps up that contact rate and betters his discipline by avoiding the contact outside the zone and learns to foul off some tougher pitches. The walk rate should improve. And his BA can even go higher.

Of course that's also like saying that if Liriano learns to spot his slider perfectly and drops his whip a full point... His era will improve. Easier said than done.

Last year Ben did hit a bunch of dribblers back to the pitcher and he still has that happening but that is a by product of what he has been taught. All coaches tell a guy with Bens speed and power to beat the ball into the ground. The middle is the best place for that. When you are shooting for the middle the pitcher can get in the way.

Looking at Carrolls numbers. They are hard to explain. High percentage Strikes thrown... High percentage contact and low percentage of balls fouled off. Yet decent Walk total.

Excellent stuff Curt... I applaud your efforts. Thank you.

diehardtwinsfan
07-12-2012, 08:25 PM
Last year it felt as if 2 or 3 times a game Ben was dribbling it back to the mound. This year he has a game or 2 like that and then BAM! he's getting 3 or 4 hits for a few games and all over the bases true with mostly singles and maybe an occasional walk or hbp. But he's busy on the bases.

Remember - we talk about the best hitters in the world in the MLB (c.f., Nishioka, JLB hitting champ = <.200 MLB) and tend to think there's a way to improve on .320 when, in fact, hitting for a living is very VERY difficult because it's highly competitive out there and if Ben can eliminate one bad thing and add one good thing per year, at that rate we're talking about someone with the aptitude to be an absolutely great HOF maybe Tony Gwynn caliber hitter. Let's repair one thing at a time. This year, eliminate those dribblers back to the mound and let's get hard grounders and liners. Next year, future years, cut back on the fly balls and get some gappers and greater selectivity.

OTOH, if Ben stays about where he's at, a .320 singles hitter with great speed hey! that's awfully good as is and top of the order stuff. Like Bill Wigglestick said, "Striving to better oft we mar what's well."

Let's not get carried away or anything. Ben is a super speedy guy who relies on making contact... much like his pitch to contact guys on the mound, there's a very very very fine line he needs to walk in order to remain productive. It isn't as simple as removing one bad thing and adding a good one, not to mention, opponents will adjust.

70charger
07-13-2012, 12:18 AM
As said before, if you're as fast as Revere, any coach will tell you to smack the ball and run it out with your speed. I'm pleased with his contact rate; he's hit at every stop in the minors, and I never thought he wouldn't hit in the majors. He's blowing me away with .320, but even with some regression to the mean, he can still be a dangerous table setter. Add his outfield range, and you're looking at one heck of a solid piece.

Going back to the Carroll/Revere comparison, one of the (few) differences I saw is Carroll's higher tendency to foul off pitches. Do you think maybe he is better at fouling off the marginal pitches to keep the at bat alive, thus making it statistically more likely that he'll draw a walk? After all, you'll never draw a walk if hit a marginal pitch poorly in play; you might draw a walk if you flip a marginal pitch foul and live to see another one.

ALessKosherScott
07-13-2012, 06:19 AM
I stand corrected... Nothing here to support my claim that Ben is getting cookies. Although when you consider that Ben has only struck out 16 times that will obviously lessen his strike percentage because he does not see the third strike typically.

I thnk curt nailed it with his first post. Ben just makes absurd contact. Couple that with his speed and you've got a fun player.

Looking at Carrolls numbers. They are hard to explain. High percentage Strikes thrown... High percentage contact and low percentage of balls fouled off. Yet decent Walk total.



It's off, to an extent. The pitcher isn't going to throw Revere the cookie on every pitch. He's going to throw it when he's down in the count or risking a walk to Revere. Curt's numbers take a look over every pitch. But what happens on the ultimate payoff pitch-- 3-2? Revere gets strikes 84% of the time. Using Carroll as a control, he gets a strike 76.1% of the time. But it gets more interesting when you look at where the pitches are in the zone.

Here's Revere:
1538
http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/519184/?pitchers=A&count=32&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2012&to=7%2F11%2F2012

Here's Carroll:
1539
http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/425206/?pitchers=A&count=32&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2012&to=7%2F11%2F2012

Curt
07-13-2012, 09:16 AM
It's off, to an extent. The pitcher isn't going to throw Revere the cookie on every pitch. He's going to throw it when he's down in the count or risking a walk to Revere. Curt's numbers take a look over every pitch. But what happens on the ultimate payoff pitch-- 3-2? Revere gets strikes 84% of the time. Using Carroll as a control, he gets a strike 76.1% of the time. But it gets more interesting when you look at where the pitches are in the zone.


Nice. Carroll has many more full count opportunities... We can see that Carroll gets to more full counts (46% more) and walks more when he gets there (113% more). We can also see what happens when Revere gets pitches down the middle, an OPS of 1.336.




PA
FC
FC%
BB
BB%
SO
SO%
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS


Carroll
312
46
14.7%
17
37.0%
7
15.2%
0.302
0.408
0.368
0.776


Revere
227
23
10.1%
4
17.4%
0
0.0%

0.579
0.652
0.684
1.336




Carroll sees more strikes than Revere (50.1% to 46.9%) but gets to 3-2 much more often because (?) he swings less, especially at pitches out of the strike zone (23.4% to 29.6%), hits more foul balls (23% to 19%) and puts fewer into play (31% to 39%).

Fanatic Jack
07-13-2012, 09:45 AM
I'm just curious where are all the bloggers who personally attacked Ben Revere last year saying he did not hit for a high enough average and was unable to get on base. Most of them nearly had a heart attack when Span was traded to the Nationals at the deadline last year. I wonder if they need to be called out or if they will just admit they were wrong.

FrodaddyG
07-13-2012, 09:56 AM
I'm just curious where are all the bloggers who personally attacked Ben Revere last year saying he did not hit for a high enough average and was unable to get on base. Most of them nearly had a heart attack when Span was traded to the Nationals at the deadline last year. I wonder if they need to be called out or if they will just admit they were wrong.
I'm no blogger, but Revere hasn't really proven wrong the people who thought his upside was as a defense-oriented singles hitter who needed to be fortunate on his BABIP to succeed. He still can't get an XBH or take a walk to save his life. This year has pretty much been on the upper end of expectations for his production (to this point). If his average creeps down into the .300 range, and his OPS dips back into the 600s, has he really made anyone who deemed him as (ideally) a fourth outfielder eat crow?

jimbo92107
07-13-2012, 10:21 AM
On Base Percentage:

Denard Span: .334
Ben Revere: .350
Joe Mauer: .416

I think Revere's doing pretty well.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-13-2012, 10:37 AM
My biggest hope for Revere is he ends up being Juan Pierre with a few less stolen bases but a little better defensively. He can be the stop gap CF until Hicks is ready, at that point you either trade him or keep him around as a nice 4th OF.

Brock Beauchamp
07-13-2012, 10:59 AM
I'm just curious where are all the bloggers who personally attacked Ben Revere last year saying he did not hit for a high enough average and was unable to get on base. Most of them nearly had a heart attack when Span was traded to the Nationals at the deadline last year. I wonder if they need to be called out or if they will just admit they were wrong.

Less than half a season of .338 BABIP ball with little power isn't proving anyone wrong. Like Fro said, if that BABIP drops to even .320 and Revere dips down to under a .700 OPS, those doubters weren't wrong. Revere suddenly turns into a punchless OFer with great defense, which is what most of the doubters feared was his ceiling.

I'm very hopeful about Revere's progression and how he's been playing this season but let's not start declaring him the center fielder of the future quite yet. Ben's play has made me think that trading Span is a good idea but there's still a risk there. Revere could regress at any moment and then the Twins are in a pretty tight spot.

By the way, Revere posted a .704 OPS in June and a .662 OPS in July (SSS, obviously). Those numbers aren't proving any doubters wrong. Without his .799 OPS in May, his numbers are entirely pedestrian. Still, he's made progress and we should be happy about that. It makes trading Span a lot easier pill to swallow.

Fanatic Jack
07-13-2012, 11:24 AM
Rocketpig,

Who cares about Revere's OPS. His job is to get on base (By hitting, making contact, or drawing walks), steal bases, score runs, ignite the offense, and provide great defense in the outfield. People make too much of him not hitting for power. Sure it would be great if Revere could sprinkle in a few more doubles and triples. However, with his speed he turns infield hits into doubles and triples. His range is so good in centerfield that it makes his arm not even a issue. He is much better, cheaper, and more durable than Span. Span is expendable!!!

Brock Beauchamp
07-13-2012, 11:29 AM
Rocketpig,

Who cares about Revere's OPS. His job is to get on base (By hitting, making contact, or drawing walks), steal bases, score runs, ignite the offense, and provide great defense in the outfield. People make too much of him not hitting for power. Sure it would be great if Revere could sprinkle in a few more doubles and triples. However, with his speed he turns infield hits into doubles and triples. His range is so good in centerfield that it makes his arm not even a issue. He is much better, cheaper, and more durable than Span. Span is expendable!!!

Which is why I said I'm hopeful about Revere but let's not pretend that it's not possible for him to backslide. Speedy guys without historically strong OBP skills walk a very fine line. Their BABIP drops and suddenly they're a marginal player. They suffer even a minor lower body injury and suddenly they're a marginal player. Pitchers adjust to them and suddenly they're a marginal player.

I'm hoping that won't happen to Revere (otherwise I wouldn't be advocating a trade of Span) but it's a possibility. It happens to "hit it on the ground and burn to first" players in their early to mid 20s all the time.

FrodaddyG
07-13-2012, 11:36 AM
Which is why I said I'm hopeful about Revere but let's not pretend that it's not possible for him to backslide. Speedy guys without historically strong OBP skills walk a very fine line. Their BABIP drops and suddenly they're a marginal player. They suffer even a minor lower body injury and suddenly they're a marginal player. Pitchers adjust to them and suddenly they're a marginal player.

I'm hoping that won't happen to Revere (otherwise I wouldn't be advocating a trade of Span) but it's a possibility. It happens to "hit it on the ground and burn to first" players in their early to mid 20s all the time.
Come on, Pig, all he has to do is "ignite the offense". And he "turns infield singles into doubles and triples"! Insert other generic platitude here!

Cychotic
07-13-2012, 12:31 PM
Rocketpig,

Who cares about Revere's OPS. His job is to get on base (By hitting, making contact, or drawing walks), steal bases, score runs, ignite the offense, and provide great defense in the outfield. People make too much of him not hitting for power. Sure it would be great if Revere could sprinkle in a few more doubles and triples. However, with his speed he turns infield hits into doubles and triples. His range is so good in centerfield that it makes his arm not even a issue. He is much better, cheaper, and more durable than Span. Span is expendable!!!

A single and a steal does not equal a double if there are runners on base at the time. A double with a runner on second will usually result in a run scored. A single and a steal with a man on second will probably result in zero runs and runners on second and third. Call me crazy, but I prefer the actual double.

greengoblinrulz
07-13-2012, 01:27 PM
Ben has exceeded everyones hope but the problem is gonna be that he is only as valuable as his batting average. That can be dangerous, but so far this year, so good.
With Benson, Arcia & Hicks all about ready (give or take) & Buxton possibly a couple yrs out (#2 picks should make majors in 3/4 yrs IMO), Ben could be a 4th OF....but a very valuable one.

Riverbrian
07-13-2012, 10:43 PM
Ben could eventually be pushed out by our prospects in the future. Although... Hes a Gardy type of player and it may not happen under Gardenhire. I don't know.

However... Those players are not here right now. This is the 2012 Twins and Ben is without question a 2012 starter.

I'm enjoying watching him play ball and I can't understand how others don't feel the same. This guy plays baseball how it's supposed to be played. I really don't recall seeing any player like him for quite some time.

That catch he almost made tonight would have given him another MLB play of the year award. The play he made on Vlad last year that gave him the award last year was beyond words. Sensational catch after sensational catch. .300 hitter.

This kid can put some butts in the seats.

Are doubles really the sticking point for the anti Revere crowd. It alludes me.

Bark's Lounge
07-13-2012, 11:36 PM
In the past half year I have been a sometimes vocal opponent of Ben Revere, I now must back River Brian in the fact that Revere is a magic maker, a shaman of baseball.

This young man might not have the greatest abilities when it comes to stereotypical baseball performance, but he is magic on the field and seemingly brings it on a day in and day out basis. He will not accrue many assists as an outfielder, he will not hit many extra-base hits at the plate.

This kid will play a gold glove outfield without a good arm, he will hit near .300 without any pop, and he will steal a ton of bases.

Ben Revere has a magic quality to him, and he will succeed. He is baseball... and a reminder why I love this game.

Bark's Lounge
07-13-2012, 11:41 PM
... He brings excitement!!!!!!!!!!!!!

John Bonnes
07-14-2012, 01:50 AM
I was about 6 ft away from that ol ball catch he almost made tonight. He really got o or that. I was amazed.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 07:49 AM
I was about 6 ft away from that ol ball catch he almost made tonight. He really got o or that. I was amazed.

So close... Just getting a glove on that ball is amazing enough. Decades will have to pass before you see a catch like that. So close!!!

How many players would even attempt it?
Of those... How many players could even get a glove on it?

That catch... If made... Would have been one of the best ever. You were 6 feet from almost seeing something historical.

If only he could have hung on. What an effort.

His catch last year on Vlad has to rank as one of the best ever. Twins Fans... hopefully... are starting to realize what this kid can do and hopefully appreciate it.

TheLeviathan
07-14-2012, 08:35 AM
Ben Revere....leading the league in Magical Almosts

FrodaddyG
07-14-2012, 08:36 AM
Ben Revere....leading the league in Magical Almosts
But if he makes that catch, (obviously one of the best of ALL TIME!) I bet Oakland just forfeits the game out of respect!

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 09:29 AM
But if he makes that catch, (obviously one of the best of ALL TIME!) I bet Oakland just forfeits the game out of respect!

Yeah... I got that coming. God forbid anyone should have a positive comment. My fault... Carry on pointing out every players flaws. That seems to come more naturally.

I just reviewed the tape on the attempted catch. I miss assessed it... It was a substandard effort. Not worth mentioning when we can razor focus on throwing arms and stats vs left handers at night in throwback jerseys.

TheLeviathan
07-14-2012, 09:56 AM
It was a great effort. Hyperventilating over a non-catch starts to look silly - it reveals that you're looking for his successes only and not his failures. That non-catch was not a failure, but he has many other failing aspects of his game that are concerning. He's having a hell of a 2012 though, I hope it continues to trend upward.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 10:11 AM
It was a great effort. Hyperventilating over a non-catch starts to look silly - it reveals that you're looking for his successes only and not his failures. That non-catch was not a failure, but he has many other failing aspects of his game that are concerning. He's having a hell of a 2012 though, I hope it continues to trend upward.

What Failures? After you answer that. Name a player that doesn't have any!!!

You call it hyperventilating... OK... I was saying... So Close... If he catches that... It would have been... Was I wrong?

FrodaddyG
07-14-2012, 10:19 AM
What Failures? After you answer that. Name a player that doesn't have any!!!

You call it hyperventilating... OK... I was saying... So Close... If he catches that... It would have been... Was I wrong?
A complete lack of pop and the inability to draw a walk would be two large ones. Specifically the drawing a walk portion for a guy who should be a table setter, and relies entirely on batting average, which is a department he has been fortunate in to this point in the season.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 10:21 AM
A complete lack of pop and the inability to draw a walk would be two large ones. Specifically the drawing a walk portion for a guy who should be a table setter, and relies entirely on batting average, which is a department he has been fortunate in to this point in the season.

OK... I agree... and lets not forget about his arm.

Now Name a player that doesn't have any failures!!!

FrodaddyG
07-14-2012, 10:26 AM
OK... I agree... Now Name a player that doesn't have any failures!!!
That isn't the point. It's the most players' successes aren't as exclusively tied to one tool as Revere's are, in this case, his speed. Hoping dribblers continue to find holes every AB isn't a great way to expect sustained productivity. As has been pointed out before, one mild hamstring tweak or any dropoff in speed and Revere is essentially a useless player.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 11:17 AM
That isn't the point. It's the most players' successes aren't as exclusively tied to one tool as Revere's are, in this case, his speed. Hoping dribblers continue to find holes every AB isn't a great way to expect sustained productivity. As has been pointed out before, one mild hamstring tweak or any dropoff in speed and Revere is essentially a useless player.

If he has a leg problem... He's done... I agree... His Speed is that important.

His Speed is probably top 5 in the Majors right now. I don't know maybe top two. I don't have a stopwatch.
His OF Glove is probably top 5 in the Majors right now. Subjective I know... But hopefully we won't deny his ability to catch the ball. I've seen more catches from him than I've seen in the past couple of decades from everyone else.
His ability to make contact is top 10. You can look that up.

So he has other things working for him.

But Yeah... If his legs go... You got a problem... I agree.

Just like if Adam Dunn loses his power.
Just like if Justin Morneau loses his ability to hit lefthanders.
Just like if Mariano Rivera loses his cutter.
Just like if Einstien has a labotomy.
Just like if Kate Hudson gets hit in the face by Peter Brady with a Football.

It alludes me why everyone is just hung up on what he can't do and waits for the failure that they are sure is coming. Meanwhile the guy keeps making plays. His legs are fine right now...

He's Young... he can add a little more discipline to his game as time goes on and draw a few more walks.

I choose to enjoy it and than I come to this site and everyone talks about the negatives. His Noodle arm... His lack of extra base hits... It's like being negative about Joey Votto because he can't play SS. Ben is who he is and what he is... Has been pretty good.

Mike Trout is not on this team!!! Nor is Ryan Braun. For us... That means we get to watch a player like Ben do what he's doing and it alludes me that some don't seem to be enjoying it.

I hope Aaron Hicks comes up and is an absolute monster I'd love to have Aaron and Ben in the Same OF... If Joe Benson comes up and starts battling his tail off... Great... If he can be that Extra Base machine with the rocket arm that everyone craves... Super... I'll gladly stand here and type the words that Ben should be the 4th OF'er or traded.

But... Not in 2012... with this team... and I don't think 2013 either...

I got Ben's back and it makes me seem like I got a man crush. I get that... I don't care... I'm just responding to what seems to be an endless string of negative posts about a 5-9 guy who's battling his tail off!!!

It was a hell of an effort. Hanging on a ten foot fence after running maybe 30 yards and getting his glove on the ball. If he would have made the catch... It would have been one of the all time greats... The conditions for that play to happen is such a rare thing. The Ball coming down to where the guy is hanging is lucky... Or being able to hang in the right spot is talent... It's a shame it didn't happen because it will be hard for those conditions to converge again. That's why you don't see it everyday.

I made a positive comment!!! And I'm sorry if that didn't sit well with some of you posters.

Reginald Maudling's Shin
07-14-2012, 11:32 AM
I'd like to see more patient, professional at-bats from Revere. Take some strikes, be selective. Just because he can make solid contact, doesn't mean that he should offer at every pitch in the zone. He's a talented hitter, he shouldn't have a problem working counts and making contact with two strikes.
Revere's AB last night in the 8th provides an example for what he can do better: He decided he was going to bunt for a hit, so he offered at the first pitch he saw that he thought he could hit and popped it up for an easy out.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 11:38 AM
I was thinking the same thing about that last at bat. Young players can try and force things at times.

Curt and others did a nice job laying out what Ben has been doing so far at the plate statistically in this thread. His discipline at the plate could use some improving.

FrodaddyG
07-14-2012, 11:48 AM
I'm just responding to what seems to be an endless string of negative posts about a 5-9 guy who's battling his tail off!!!
Congratulations, you've just invoked the sound byte so ridiculous (and consistently used to justify poor players being on a roster) it spawned an entire Twins site for 6 years.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 11:52 AM
Congratulations, you've just invoked the sound byte so ridiculous (and consistently used to justify poor players being on a roster) it spawned an entire Twins site for 6 years.

Thank you... Those words were chosen by me exactly for that purpose.

Curt
07-14-2012, 12:01 PM
I'd like to see more patient, professional at-bats from Revere. Take some strikes, be selective. Just because he can make solid contact, doesn't mean that he should offer at every pitch in the zone.

Revere does not have enough PA's to qualify yet (54 short by my count after last night's game) but, if he did, his z-Swing%, 51.9%, would the third lowest in the majors behind Jamey Carroll, 50.7%, and Martin Prado of the Braves, 51.7%. Mauer currently has the fourth lowest in the majors at 53.7% for additional perspective. So he is not offering at every pitch in the zone by a long shot.

As noted in the original post, he is swinging at too many pitches outside the strike zone (where he is merely average). Still, combined, if he had enough PAs to qualify, he would have the 17th lowest overall swing% in both leagues.

Oxtung
07-14-2012, 12:01 PM
That isn't the point. It's the most players' successes aren't as exclusively tied to one tool as Revere's are...

Morneau, Willingham, Plouffe lose their power
Span's ability to play solid defense in OF
Almost any MI losing their ability to play defense (certainly any the Twins have had since...Knoblach?)

That's 7/8 fielders and every pitcher who's ability to play is almost exclusively tied to 1 attribute. The players who are able to lose their defining attribute and still be productive are exceptionally rare. So yes if Revere loses his speed & quickness he will add little to the Twins but that's true for just about every player.

Curt
07-14-2012, 12:12 PM
Revere does not have enough PA's to qualify yet (54 short by my count after last night's game) but, if he did, his z-Swing%, 51.9%, would the third lowest in the majors behind Jamey Carroll, 50.7%, and Martin Prado of the Braves, 51.7%. Mauer currently has the fourth lowest in the majors at 53.7% for additional perspective. So he is not offering at every pitch in the zone by a long shot.

As noted in the original post, he is swinging at too many pitches outside the strike zone (where he is merely average). Still, combined, if he had enough PAs to qualify, he would have the 17th lowest overall swing% in both leagues.

And... His contact%, 92.0%, would be fourth behind Marco Scutaro, 94.0%, Denard Span, 92.6%, and Michael Brantley, 92.6%.

His ball-in-play%, 39% would be tied for first with Ichiro.

Oxtung
07-14-2012, 12:31 PM
And... His contact%, 92.0%, would be fourth behind Marco Scutaro, 94.0%, Denard Span, 92.6%, and Michael Brantley, 92.6%.

His ball-in-play%, 39% would be tied for first with Ichiro.

Sounds to me like some Span-Revere hit and runs are in order!

Reginald Maudling's Shin
07-14-2012, 01:00 PM
And... His contact%, 92.0%, would be fourth behind Marco Scutaro, 94.0%, Denard Span, 92.6%, and Michael Brantley, 92.6%.

His ball-in-play%, 39% would be tied for first with Ichiro.

These statistics don't provide for any variation for pitches in the strike zone, just because he's swinging at strikes doesn't mean they are good pitches to hit. Also he's swinging early in the count and making contact...

Revere is dead last among (qualifying) Twins hitters in pitches per plate appearance at 3.47. League average is 3.85. Mauer is at 4.31. Willingham 4.25. Carroll 3.98.



Age PA Pit Pit/PA
JoeMauer* 29 337 1451 4.31
JoshWillingham 33 353 1499 4.25
JameyCarroll 38 318 1267 3.98
RyanDoumit# 31 269 1057 3.93
DenardSpan* 28 355 1392 3.92
League Average 3.85
TrevorPlouffe 26 259 992 3.83
BrianDozier 25 228 857 3.76
JustinMorneau* 31 283 1040 3.67
AlexiCasilla# 27 189 662 3.50
BenRevere* 24 231 801 3.47
Team Total 29.0 3302 12820 3.88



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2012-batting.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#players_pitches_batting)
Generated 7/14/2012.

Again, just because it's a strike doesn't mean you have to swing. This is very important for Revere, since he has so little power. If he could just work his way deeper into the counts and wait for the 1 pitch per at bat that he can really drive, pitchers would be more careful with him, thus, his BB rate would improve.

Brock Beauchamp
07-14-2012, 01:00 PM
Morneau, Willingham, Plouffe lose their power
Span's ability to play solid defense in OF
Almost any MI losing their ability to play defense (certainly any the Twins have had since...Knoblach?)

That's 7/8 fielders and every pitcher who's ability to play is almost exclusively tied to 1 attribute. The players who are able to lose their defining attribute and still be productive are exceptionally rare. So yes if Revere loses his speed & quickness he will add little to the Twins but that's true for just about every player.

Short of a crippling injury, how does one loser power or lose their ability to play defense?

Revere walks a finer line than that. He doesn't have to "lose speed", he only has to "lose a step". He doesn't have Denard's patience at the plate (not historically, anyway). He doesn't have Denard's gap-hitting power. He doesn't have Denard's arm, as unimpressive as it may be.

Which means that if he loses a step and becomes the same speed as Denard, he's suddenly a vastly inferior player to Span. And it's not as if that sort of thing doesn't happen to base-burners on a regular basis. They don't have to "lose their speed", all it takes is a small hindering of their ability and suddenly, they're a below league average player.

Again, not wishing any ill will toward Revere, I'm just calling him out for what he is. A 1 1/2 tool player (speed, contact) who could fall on his face if he loses either one of those abilities because he literally has zero other redeeming qualities as a baseball player.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 01:41 PM
Short of a crippling injury, how does one loser power or lose their ability to play defense?



Adam Dunn:
38 Homers in 2010 to 11 in 2011.

Joe Mauer:
28 Homers in 2009 to 9 in 2010.

Adrian Gonzalez
27 Homers in 2011 to 6 so far in 2012

Defense: Off the top of my head... Chuck Knoblauch started picking off people in the crowd with his throws for some reason. I'm sure there are example of good fielders whose error totals spiked and perhaps stayed there.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 02:24 PM
Again, not wishing any ill will toward Revere, I'm just calling him out for what he is. A 1 1/2 tool player (speed, contact) who could fall on his face if he loses either one of those abilities because he literally has zero other redeeming qualities as a baseball player.

I should have included this in my last reply. Ben is a 3 tool player and superior at those 3 tools. I don't get the 1/2 part.

Speed, Defense and Hitting for average.

He is substandard at the other tools. Power and Arm Strength.

Justin Morneau is also a 3 tool player. Power, Hitting for Average(at least he was) and Defense(I think he does all right)

I don't know if Justin qualfies with his Arm and I'm pretty sure he doesn't qualify with his speed.

Curt
07-14-2012, 02:40 PM
Revere swings too much? He has the 17th lowest swing percent in baseball.

Revere swings too early? See above. When is he not swinging? The middle of the count? Late in the count?

Revere swings at not very good strikes? Is that why he has the third lowest strike swing rate in baseball? Is that why he has the fourth highest contact rate? Is that why has has the highest rate of putting the ball in play? Is that why he is hitting over .300?

Revere isn't waiting for the 1 pitch he can really drive? Maybe he is getting it and when he does, he swings, makes contact, puts the ball in play and hits over .300.

TheLeviathan
07-14-2012, 03:15 PM
OK... I agree... and lets not forget about his arm.

Now Name a player that doesn't have any failures!!!

By all means if I ever become a bubblegum chewing, cheerleading, reality denying schmuck about anyone feel free to hop on me for it. In the meantime recognize that and try and see how gooberish that is. Hell i hate Liriano but can still tip my cap at his success. Just the over-the-top apologist routine is so dumb.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 03:37 PM
By all means if I ever become a bubblegum chewing, cheerleading, reality denying schmuck about anyone feel free to hop on me for it. In the meantime recognize that and try and see how gooberish that is. Hell i hate Liriano but can still tip my cap at his success. Just the over-the-top apologist routine is so dumb.

Likewise... If I ever become a downtrodden, cynical ass, overloaded with hypocrisy and self loathing. Stay behind your keyboard big boy.

I'm sure that Cap tipping you do means something to everyone amongst all the Hatred.

I typed something positive!!! OH MY GOD!!! Let's put a stop to that right now!!! No one should be able to get away with that... We can't have that on this site.

Brock Beauchamp
07-14-2012, 03:38 PM
Adam Dunn:
38 Homers in 2010 to 11 in 2011.

Joe Mauer:
28 Homers in 2009 to 9 in 2010.

Adrian Gonzalez
27 Homers in 2011 to 6 so far in 2012

Defense: Off the top of my head... Chuck Knoblauch started picking off people in the crowd with his throws for some reason. I'm sure there are example of good fielders whose error totals spiked and perhaps stayed there.

Oh, come on. There's a difference between "losing power" and "having an awful year". Guys have awful years all the time and Joe's drop in power was concurrent to moving to a stadium that crushes lefties. Joe is doing quite well for himself, as is Dunn. Gonzalez will probably be back to crushing it by the end of the season or the beginning of next.

And Chuck Knoblauch was an aberration whose mind was his undoing. It's incredibly rare to see a guy play great defense and then suddenly drop off a cliff for no apparent reason.

TheLeviathan
07-14-2012, 03:43 PM
I typed something positive!!! OH MY GOD!!! Let's put e able to get away with that... We can't have that on this site.

I typed something realistic and not obnoxiously fanboyish!!! OH MY GOD !!! We can't have that on the sire.

Brock Beauchamp
07-14-2012, 03:46 PM
I should have included this in my last reply. Ben is a 3 tool player and superior at those 3 tools. I don't get the 1/2 part.

Speed, Defense and Hitting for average.

He is substandard at the other tools. Power and Arm Strength.

Justin Morneau is also a 3 tool player. Power, Hitting for Average(at least he was) and Defense(I think he does all right)

I don't know if Justin qualfies with his Arm and I'm pretty sure he doesn't qualify with his speed.

You're assuming that all tools were created equally. I'm pretty sure range is more important than arm strength and that power is more important than average.

Back to my point. Ben has two real tools. Contact and speed. Everything he does well is linked to those two tools.

And because one of those tools is speed, that's a dangerous tightrope to walk if you want continued success in the major leagues. Guys start off their careers all the time as speedy, defense-oriented contact hitters and they also fail all the time. The Twins have had a non-stop line of these guys pass through the organization for the past 15 years, most of them under the guise of "middle infielder". Over time, every one of them broke down and turned into a sub-standard player because their over-reliance on one tool wasn't enough to adjust to major league pitching. Or maybe they lost a step. When your skill set is so reliant on pure athleticism, it doesn't take much to go from slightly above average to well below in the blink of an eye.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 03:49 PM
Oh, come on. There's a difference between "losing power" and "having an awful year". Guys have awful years all the time and Joe's drop in power was concurrent to moving to a stadium that crushes lefties.

And Chuck Knoblauch was an aberration. It's incredibly rare to see a guy play great defense and then suddenly drop off a cliff for no apparent reason.

I know... but for that year... Adam Dunn was worthless... You take his power away and you ain't got much. If it happens to Ben... Yeah we got a problem. Speed is pretty much what he's about.

Right now... He's running just fine... He might struggle with an injury in years to come but there is also the possibility that he keeps running into his 30's.

The whole point is that attributes can collapse for any player for a time and nearly every player has specific attributes that are crucial to the job they do. Saying Ben is a leg injury away from being worthless is valid but it also can be said that a wrist injury to Justin Morneau can do the same.

Speed declines as you age and so does power. Power is bat speed and you lose it over time as well.

Brock Beauchamp
07-14-2012, 03:54 PM
I know... but for that year... Adam Dunn was worthless... You take his power away and you ain't got much. If it happens to Ben... Yeah we got a problem. Speed is pretty much what he's about.

Right now... He's running just fine... He might struggle with an injury in years to come but there is also the possibility that he keeps running into his 30's.

The whole point is that attributes can collapse for any player for a time and nearly every player has specific attributes that are crucial to the job they do. Saying Ben is a leg injury away from being worthless is valid but it also can be said that a wrist injury to Justin Morneau can do the same.

Speed declines as you age and so does power. Power is bat speed and you lose it over time as well.

Dunn didn't just lose power. He lost the ability to hit the ball, period (he hit what, .160 last year?). He's also a DH. That's a pretty one-dimensional position. Of course a DH that doesn't hit the ball is pretty worthless.

I already outlined a comparison to Span earlier. You're missing my point about players like Revere, not Revere himself. I'm not going to start arguing in circles. Guys who rely on speed and contact often break out and then disappear shortly thereafter. Look at the Twins middle infield for the past 15 years.

PS. Every player is useless after a wrist injury that hinders bat speed or throwing motion. Awful comparison.

Riverbrian
07-14-2012, 04:10 PM
You're assuming that all tools were created equally. I'm pretty sure range is more important than arm strength and that power is more important than average.

Back to my point. Ben has two real tools. Contact and speed. Everything he does well is linked to those two tools.

And because one of those tools is speed, that's a dangerous tightrope to walk if you want continued success in the major leagues. Guys start off their careers all the time as speedy, defense-oriented contact hitters and they also fail all the time. The Twins have had a non-stop line of these guys pass through the organization for the past 15 years, most of them under the guise of "middle infielder". Over time, every one of them broke down and turned into a sub-standard player because their over-reliance on one tool wasn't enough to adjust to major league pitching. Or maybe they lost a step. When your skill set is so reliant on pure athleticism, it doesn't take much to go from slightly above average to well below in the blink of an eye.

I hear ya... I actually agree with what you are saying to a point. I'm just hopeful that folks can enjoy the speed while it's here cuz it's fun to watch.

I also believe that Ben Revere is faster and a better hitter than Christian Guzman. If his speed declines... Let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

We have an army of young OF'ers coming up. If they out play Ben... Then they out play him. Right now... It's his time.

I have always said that if we had Corey Hart or Shin Soo Choo... I'd have Ben playing in Rochester. We don't.

Turd Furgeson
07-14-2012, 07:21 PM
Again, not wishing any ill will toward Revere, I'm just calling him out for what he is. A 1 1/2 tool player (speed, contact) who could fall on his face if he loses either one of those abilities because he literally has zero other redeeming qualities as a baseball player.

Why is contact half of a tool? That's a whole tool. Plus his defense is a tool, so he's a three tool player and yes, a lot of what he does with those three tools is contingent on his speed tool. It really hurts him that his power and arm tools are probably 2s.

Brock Beauchamp
07-15-2012, 10:22 AM
I hear ya... I actually agree with what you are saying to a point. I'm just hopeful that folks can enjoy the speed while it's here cuz it's fun to watch.

I also believe that Ben Revere is faster and a better hitter than Christian Guzman. If his speed declines... Let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

We have an army of young OF'ers coming up. If they out play Ben... Then they out play him. Right now... It's his time.

I have always said that if we had Corey Hart or Shin Soo Choo... I'd have Ben playing in Rochester. We don't.

I'm enjoying the hell out of Revere's play. I wouldn't even have entered this thread if not for Jack saying "it's time to call out the Revere doubters".

Half a season does not a career make, as Yoda would say.

There is a lot that can go wrong with a player like Revere and we shouldn't be crowning him the next Puckett just yet. That's all I'm trying to say.

Brock Beauchamp
07-15-2012, 10:24 AM
Why is contact half of a tool? That's a whole tool. Plus his defense is a tool, so he's a three tool player and yes, a lot of what he does with those three tools is contingent on his speed tool. It really hurts him that his power and arm tools are probably 2s.

Because the five tools of baseball are flawed. There is no accounting for plate discipline. Revere has the batting average. He does not have the discipline to go along with it that makes a decent hitter a good hitter and a good hitter a great hitter (see Mauer, Joe or Olerud, John for more information). Part of that is due to his lack of power. Part of it is due to his contact rate. But no matter the reasons, at the end of the day Revere is probably never going to be a great OBP guy.

How much more valuable would Revere be if he took a walk 10% of the time? He'd border on Rickey Henderson territory at that point (minus Rickey's power). He'd be a baseball star overnight. Yet the "five tools" don't factor that in at all.

Kobs
07-15-2012, 11:13 AM
Dunn's power numbers were pretty decent for a guy who couldn't hit the ball.

Connecticut Twins Fan
07-15-2012, 11:30 AM
Excellent analysis! Great use of swing and contact rates to put Revere's performance in proper context. Hopefully, someone shows this to Vavra!

Turd Furgeson
07-15-2012, 01:22 PM
Because the five tools of baseball are flawed. There is no accounting for plate discipline. Revere has the batting average. He does not have the discipline to go along with it that makes a decent hitter a good hitter and a good hitter a great hitter (see Mauer, Joe or Olerud, John for more information). Part of that is due to his lack of power. Part of it is due to his contact rate. But no matter the reasons, at the end of the day Revere is probably never going to be a great OBP guy.

How much more valuable would Revere be if he took a walk 10% of the time? He'd border on Rickey Henderson territory at that point (minus Rickey's power). He'd be a baseball star overnight. Yet the "five tools" don't factor that in at all.

No one said the 5 tools account for everything. The 5 tools are mostly supposed to represent things that aren't learned. They are considered to be physical talents, for the most part. Taking walks and having a great eye at the plate is very important but doesn't really factor into the 5 tools. Revere is still a three tool player, funny enough two of those tools are probably 80s (run and glove) and his hit tool is probably close to an 80 as well. The fact that his power is a 20 is the biggest limiting factor.

You're right that he'd be a lot more valuable if he could walk at average rates, I'm not really sure what the secret is for him to do that. Maybe he's just too good at putting pitches in the zone in play.

ALessKosherScott
07-15-2012, 03:15 PM
Revere walks a finer line than that. He doesn't have to "lose speed", he only has to "lose a step". He doesn't have Denard's patience at the plate (not historically, anyway). He doesn't have Denard's gap-hitting power. He doesn't have Denard's arm, as unimpressive as it may be.


At the same time, Denard Span didn't have that gap power until he was 24. The problem with all the irrational Ben Revere hate is that it forgets that he still has time for improvement. He'll never hit for Josh Willingham power, but all it takes is Luis Castillo power to make pitchers stop grooving pitches to him every time he gets to ball three, which will push his OBP north and make him a legit all-star candidate in any given year. Revere isn't perfect. The arm is a problem. But at the same time, there's plenty to like. The range in the outfield makes Kirby Puckett and Torii Hunter look like bad defenders. His bat control rivals Mauer and maybe even Rod Carew. He knows the strike zone very well and doesn't chase pitches. And then there's the speed on the basepaths. That's not two tools. That's three-plus tools. And while the lack of power hurts, the historical comp to Juan Pierre is off on one thing-- that Revere doesn't use the same O.J. Simpson-esq choke down on the bat that kills any power Pierre might have.

My advice would be unless you have some sort of Flux-capacitor equipped DeLorean and know for certain that Revere goes the next 1,500 plate appearances without a home run, lighten up, Francis. 99.9% of prospects come up with some sort of warts they need to work out, this includes every prospect currently in the Twins system including Sano. If we're going to ever witness a good Twins team again, we need to take the 1999 Twins approach and let them develop and not the 1996 Twins approach and harp on all of their flaws until we trade them off for fossils of former baseball players. Who knows? Two years from know you may feel the same way about Revere that you do about Span right now.

Riverbrian
07-15-2012, 03:46 PM
I'd like to see some more walks but it makes little sense to wring your hands over his current BB%

To say that he is probably never going to be a great OBP guy. Is kinda like saying that the 2012 Twins Baseball Draft is a fail. He's 24 and way too soon to make that call.

10 walks in 236 at bats this year. 4.1%

League average is 8.1%

53 games played and he would need 9 more walks to reach 8.1%... That's 1 walk every 6 games. It wouldn't take much of an adjustment to pull that off. He's 24 years old.


13 More Walks in 53 games and he reaches that 10% mark. That's one more walk every 4 games. That's not impossible for a guy that looks like Eddie Guedel.

It's too soon to be calling out the Anti Revere Crowd and it's too soon to be saying that the wheels are going to come off.

Brock Beauchamp
07-15-2012, 04:02 PM
I'd like to see some more walks but it makes little sense to wring your hands over his current BB%

To say that he is probably never going to be a great OBP guy. Is kinda like saying that the 2012 Twins Baseball Draft is a fail. He's 24 and way too soon to make that call.

We have 1755 PAs in the minors that say he's probably never going to be a great OBP guy.

Note that I said "probably" and not "definitely". It's not impossible for a guy to suddenly figure out plate discipline in the majors but it is unlikely.

Brock Beauchamp
07-15-2012, 04:06 PM
My advice would be unless you have some sort of Flux-capacitor equipped DeLorean and know for certain that Revere goes the next 1,500 plate appearances without a home run, lighten up, Francis. 99.9% of prospects come up with some sort of warts they need to work out, this includes every prospect currently in the Twins system including Sano. If we're going to ever witness a good Twins team again, we need to take the 1999 Twins approach and let them develop and not the 1996 Twins approach and harp on all of their flaws until we trade them off for fossils of former baseball players. Who knows? Two years from know you may feel the same way about Revere that you do about Span right now.

Okay, swell. I don't know what this has to do with my argument or anything at all, but okay.

I've said multiple times that Revere's play has given the Twins flexibility to trade Span. Obviously, I'm not that down on the guy. Or down on him at all, really... for the billionth time, I'm simply saying that fans need to temper their expectations of speedy, high BABIP players because they tend to fall off a cliff often and very dramatically.

FrodaddyG
07-15-2012, 04:15 PM
Revere's walk% by year:

6.01
7.21
7.73
7.79
5.41 (5.77 in MLB)
4.15 (4.23 in MLB)

Overall he's at 6.29% career, and trending downward as he moves into the majors. AS Pig said, it isn't unheard of for a guy to figure it out, but he's at 2500 PAs as a professional, and he's not getting better in that department, he's getting worse. Hackers tend to stay hackers (See: Young, Delmon) but most of them are guys who can give the ball a ride once in a while and aren't just praying that another grounder finds a hole every time they're at the plate.

I hope Revere succeeds because it helps the Twins, but I'm still hoping that they can eventually (and sooner than later) piece together an outfield with guys whose entire offensive game isn't predicated on flurries of singles and nothing else. That said, I'm nowhere near delusional enough to believe things like "Revere could have a chance to be an All-Star every year", which are just flat-out idiotic. The guy is a nice piece, but if he's anywhere near the Twins' best player in any given year, that will be a historically terrible Twins team.

Brock Beauchamp
07-15-2012, 04:21 PM
No one said the 5 tools account for everything. The 5 tools are mostly supposed to represent things that aren't learned. They are considered to be physical talents, for the most part. Taking walks and having a great eye at the plate is very important but doesn't really factor into the 5 tools. Revere is still a three tool player, funny enough two of those tools are probably 80s (run and glove) and his hit tool is probably close to an 80 as well. The fact that his power is a 20 is the biggest limiting factor.

If the five tools are based purely on ability, there should only be three tools. Hitting, speed, and power. Defense is a learned skill that has a lot of overlap with speed and arm strength. If we're basing things on pure physicality, there is no reason to have defensive ability, speed, and arm listed as three different tools.

Plate discipline isn't a "tool" because very few understood the importance of plate discipline before 1990.

Turd Furgeson
07-15-2012, 07:11 PM
If the five tools are based purely on ability, there should only be three tools. Hitting, speed, and power. Defense is a learned skill that has a lot of overlap with speed and arm strength. If we're basing things on pure physicality, there is no reason to have defensive ability, speed, and arm listed as three different tools.

Plate discipline isn't a "tool" because very few understood the importance of plate discipline before 1990.

What about arm? Not everyone who has hitting power has throwing power. Also, glove is the only one that's a bit different. It relates to the raw athletic traits a guy has that could make him a good defender at a specific position.

That's not why plate discpline isn't a tool, and I don't think what you're saying is entirely accurate. Plate discipline isn't a physical ability. It's important to developing a good hitter, but it isn't a tool.