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View Full Version : Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 3



stringer bell
07-11-2012, 05:05 PM
Clear a spot in the outfield for a hitter

The Twins currently start two outfielders, Span and Revere, who have good batting averages but slugging percentages under .400 and very low power numbers. It is my belief that they can't be serious about contending with two such starters in the outfield. Also, they have substandard to nonexistent power at other positions--2nd base and SS--so that too high a percentage of their home runs comes from two players--Plouffe and Willingham. They need extra base power from both corner OF spots and they won't get it with Revere.

Span is a prototypical leadoff hitter, a speedy runner, and a good center fielder. He hits lefties very well, so that he isn't a candidate to be platooned. He has a long-term contract that is regarded as "team-friendly" and he is 28 years old. Span has shown that he can play any of the outfield positions well. He missed a lot of time with concussion/vertigo issues last year, but those problems appear to be in his rear-view mirror.


Revere is an aggressive swinging singles hitter with tremendous speed. His speed helps him get on base, disrupts opponents when he gets on base, and allows him to roam far and wide to run down balls in the outfield. He also carries two big negatives--he doesn't drive the ball often enough for outfielders to play him honest and he has a weak throwing arm allowing others to take extra bases. This season, Revere is hitting well over .300 and has shown he can go get 'em in the outfield.

I think that Revere has shown enough that the Twins should proceed with trading Span. They need to get good value in what comes back, hopefully in areas of need. Revere would succeed Span as the leadoff guy and while he wouldn't work the count like Span does, he has shown the ability to get on base and he has shown he can steal bases and distract opponents.


For the short term a Span trade would get Revere's superior range in center field and most likely a less adept fielder in right field. Long term, the Twins have several candidates for center and the corners who could provide more punch but still provide good defense and range. A Span trade would put Revere in his natural position, potentially add talent to a position of weakness, and provide a position for another hitter with power on the team. Unless Revere goes in the tank or no one offers enough for Span, I think the incumbent Twins' center fielder should be moved.

Brock Beauchamp
07-11-2012, 05:16 PM
Torii Hunter seems like the obvious stop-gap choice for a corner outfield spot until one of the prospects is ready. I'm becoming more sold on the idea every day.

diehardtwinsfan
07-11-2012, 06:46 PM
I'm of the opinion that you trade teh more valuable piece, which I assume to be Span at this point... but if you get better offers from Revere, I would trade Revere in a heartbeat. Hunter makes sense from a stop gap solution, but there's also a Parmalee problem. Where you do you play him? I could buy letting him sit in AAA this year, but I'd have a tough time believing you will need to justify it this and next season. Morneau has 1B through next year. Mauer and Doumit will occupy the DH spot quite a bit. Perhaps you clear the OF spot and let Chris play in right for the forseable future? Just a thought.

Snortwood
07-11-2012, 07:07 PM
Torii Hunter? Are people serious? The Twins have 5 or 6 highly regarded minor league prospects who can play right field, or CF and keep Revere in RF where his range overcomes his arm 3 or 4 plays to 1, and my guess is every one of those prospects will be a better major leaguer than Torii H in 2014 given the opportunity to play the position and get 400+ ABs in 2013. Going with Torii would be expensive and short-term, and this team is NOT in a short-term mode from anything they've shown lately.

Trade Span and Danny V, sure, and Liriano maybe, if the return warrants it, for pitching and if possible a shortstop who can really play the position and stay above the Mendoza line with or without pop in his bat but defensively strong, and the rest of the lineup (C/Mauer, 1B/Morneau, 2B/Casilla until some kid is ready, 3B/Plouffe, SS/get-or-find-somebody!, LF/Josh, CF-RF/Hicks-Benson-Revere, DH/Doumit) with better starting pitching is enough. It may take a few years to build the rotation. Now would be the time to start giving younger players an opportunity to get the plate appearances it takes to move from rookie to novice to reliable contributor.

No reason to expect this team to win 90 games this year or next, but getting this club into a position where it might be able to do that next year, and can be expected to do that 2 years from here, that's the challenge. And that isn't going to happen by giving Torii Hunter a job next year which could go to some deserving talented hungry soon-to-be-much-better-than Torii kid.

Erock
07-11-2012, 07:27 PM
Hicks needs AAA, Arcia might still be at AA, Benson will need to start next year AAA given his injury has set him back this year. Torii Hunter makes perfect sense as a stop gap for 1-2 years, he can start at RF and move around as needed, and gets to retire as a Twin. Has value has dwindled a bit and he's going to be 37 years old.

Oxtung
07-11-2012, 07:47 PM
Torii Hunter? Are people serious? The Twins have 5 or 6 highly regarded minor league prospects who can play right field, or CF and keep Revere in RF where his range overcomes his arm 3 or 4 plays to 1, and my guess is every one of those prospects will be a better major leaguer than Torii H in 2014 given the opportunity to play the position and get 400+ ABs in 2013. Going with Torii would be expensive and short-term, and this team is NOT in a short-term mode from anything they've shown lately.

Trade Span and Danny V, sure, and Liriano maybe, if the return warrants it, for pitching and if possible a shortstop who can really play the position and stay above the Mendoza line with or without pop in his bat but defensively strong, and the rest of the lineup (C/Mauer, 1B/Morneau, 2B/Casilla until some kid is ready, 3B/Plouffe, SS/get-or-find-somebody!, LF/Josh, CF-RF/Hicks-Benson-Revere, DH/Doumit) with better starting pitching is enough. It may take a few years to build the rotation. Now would be the time to start giving younger players an opportunity to get the plate appearances it takes to move from rookie to novice to reliable contributor.

No reason to expect this team to win 90 games this year or next, but getting this club into a position where it might be able to do that next year, and can be expected to do that 2 years from here, that's the challenge. And that isn't going to happen by giving Torii Hunter a job next year which could go to some deserving talented hungry soon-to-be-much-better-than Torii kid.

Of those talented outfielders only Benson realistically could be ready and he'd have to show that his first half was behind him. Hicks only has 1/2 year at AA at this point and while he is playing well in NB he certainly isn't killing it so counting on him to start in RF next year is asking too much of a 22 year old kid. Arcia, Rosario, Sano, etc... are even farther out and may not even be in the outfield by the time they hit the majors. At this point it certainly seems that the Twins will need a veteran to fill in the first half of the year at a minimum. Of course this could all change if Benson comes out swinging in the second half and gets quality at bats in at AAA still this year.

Fireflyfan
07-11-2012, 09:32 PM
Just throwing out this but the Twins could move Plouffe to right feild and bring back up Danny Valencia for 3rd. If we trade Span or Reeve it should be for a major league ready starting pitcher. I've mentioned James Shields before. The Nationals need a center fielder. They got John Lannan in the minors. He had a decent year last year. He's also got some years of arb control for the Twins. He's not a top of the rotation guy but when have the Twins gone after top tier pitching?

edavis0308
07-11-2012, 10:04 PM
Just throwing out this but the Twins could move Plouffe to right feild and bring back up Danny Valencia for 3rd. If we trade Span or Reeve it should be for a major league ready starting pitcher. I've mentioned James Shields before. The Nationals need a center fielder. They got John Lannan in the minors. He had a decent year last year. He's also got some years of arb control for the Twins. He's not a top of the rotation guy but when have the Twins gone after top tier pitching?

Just what this team needs is Nick Blackburn 2.0 for their best trade chip. Brilliant.

Erock
07-11-2012, 10:40 PM
Just throwing out this but the Twins could move Plouffe to right feild and bring back up Danny Valencia for 3rd. If we trade Span or Reeve it should be for a major league ready starting pitcher. I've mentioned James Shields before. The Nationals need a center fielder. They got John Lannan in the minors. He had a decent year last year. He's also got some years of arb control for the Twins. He's not a top of the rotation guy but when have the Twins gone after top tier pitching?

No, you don't move Plouffe. He's been comfortable at 3rd and is more valuable there than in the corner. Don't wanna mess up a good thing when you got it. Plus Danny V has done nothing to warrant being called back up.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-11-2012, 11:39 PM
LOL at the thought of trading for John freaking Lanahan, at this point you could get him for nothing if you agreed to pick up his salary.

Shane Wahl
07-12-2012, 12:07 AM
No. No. No. The Twins adding OFs is ridiculous. The entirety of the effort here forward must be devoted to starting pitching. Then they should simply figure out what to do about the MI (Florimon at SS, Dozier at 2B, and Carroll at UTIL). This is all that matters. The Twins fixing this problem means 12-15 games.

Top Gun
07-12-2012, 03:09 AM
Parmelee should start in lf or rf next season just to see if he can play.

stringer bell
07-12-2012, 11:26 AM
Parmelee should start in lf or rf next season just to see if he can play.If Span is moved, I wouldn't mind seeing how Parmelee can do in RF. Other candidates off the top of my head--Wilken Ramirez, Matt Carson, Plouffe, Doumit, and Mastroianni (another light hitting speed guy). I was hoping Joe Benson would be ready at midseason this year, but his year has been a disaster and he's trying to get it going with the Miracle.

Brock Beauchamp
07-12-2012, 11:29 AM
Parmelee has less than 100 AAA ABs and is only 24. Justin Morneau is entering the last year of his contract.

Chris can sit in Rochester for the rest of the year and hopefully, he'll start getting prepared for first base duties after Justin is gone. There's no reason to shuffle him around the diamond when there's a good chance the team needs a first baseman for 2014 and beyond.

Oxtung
07-12-2012, 11:34 AM
Parmelee has less than 100 AAA ABs and is only 24. Justin Morneau is entering the last year of his contract.

Chris can sit in Rochester for the rest of the year and hopefully, he'll start getting prepared for first base duties after Justin is gone. There's no reason to shuffle him around the diamond when there's a good chance the team needs a first baseman for 2014 and beyond.

Justin is most likely going to be here still next year as well though. At a minimum he will likely man first base for the first half of 2013 trying to drive his trade value or if he is back to Justin of old because we're looking to resign him. So where do you put Parmelee for the first half of next season? Do you let him ride out ANOTHER half season at AAA? Does he come up and just sit on the bench?

Brock Beauchamp
07-12-2012, 11:43 AM
Justin is most likely going to be here still next year as well though. At a minimum he will likely man first base for the first half of 2013 trying to drive his trade value or if he is back to Justin of old because we're looking to resign him. So where do you put Parmelee for the first half of next season? Do you let him ride out ANOTHER half season at AAA? Does he come up and just sit on the bench?

I say you start grooming Chris to be the first baseman of the future and let the chips fall where they may. If Justin has a good season in 2013, yay. A win. If he doesn't, Chris is ready to start taking playing time from him and you start platooning the two players into the 1B/DH role at some point next season.

Worst case scenario is that you have performing first basemen in Minnesota and Rochester, which is a good problem to have. If neither performs, then you know you need outside help going forward.

The Twins have lots and lots of outfielders. They don't have any first basemen.

J-Dog Dungan
07-12-2012, 11:45 AM
Clear a spot in the outfield for a hitter

The Twins currently start two outfielders, Span and Revere, who have good batting averages but slugging percentages under .400 and very low power numbers. It is my belief that they can't be serious about contending with two such starters in the outfield. Also, they have substandard to nonexistent power at other positions--2nd base and SS--so that too high a percentage of their home runs comes from two players--Plouffe and Willingham. They need extra base power from both corner OF spots and they won't get it with Revere.

Span is a prototypical leadoff hitter, a speedy runner, and a good center fielder. He hits lefties very well, so that he isn't a candidate to be platooned. He has a long-term contract that is regarded as "team-friendly" and he is 28 years old. Span has shown that he can play any of the outfield positions well. He missed a lot of time with concussion/vertigo issues last year, but those problems appear to be in his rear-view mirror.


Revere is an aggressive swinging singles hitter with tremendous speed. His speed helps him get on base, disrupts opponents when he gets on base, and allows him to roam far and wide to run down balls in the outfield. He also carries two big negatives--he doesn't drive the ball often enough for outfielders to play him honest and he has a weak throwing arm allowing others to take extra bases. This season, Revere is hitting well over .300 and has shown he can go get 'em in the outfield.

I think that Revere has shown enough that the Twins should proceed with trading Span. They need to get good value in what comes back, hopefully in areas of need. Revere would succeed Span as the leadoff guy and while he wouldn't work the count like Span does, he has shown the ability to get on base and he has shown he can steal bases and distract opponents.


For the short term a Span trade would get Revere's superior range in center field and most likely a less adept fielder in right field. Long term, the Twins have several candidates for center and the corners who could provide more punch but still provide good defense and range. A Span trade would put Revere in his natural position, potentially add talent to a position of weakness, and provide a position for another hitter with power on the team. Unless Revere goes in the tank or no one offers enough for Span, I think the incumbent Twins' center fielder should be moved.

1) Why do they need Span and Revere to hit home runs if they get on base at really high clips
2) When they get on base, they are good table setters for Plouffe and Willingham
3) Teams don't need too many power hitters, otherwise a team will have the stats of Mark Reynolds a lot of HR's, but a HELL of a lot of K's.
4) Revere's arm has very rarely cost the Twins anything this year; I am sure that they would prefer his range to having a Torii Hunter-esqe arm
5) Why is right field weak?
6) The Twins need pitching so much more than they need a right fielder, it is not even funny. Trade Span for pitching before trading him for a RF
7) The Twins have several power hitters in Morneau, Willinghammer, Plouffe, as well as Mauer and Doumit to a certain extent. Honestly, that is all the power a team needs. As much as a team needs guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark, said team also needs guys who are good at getting on base to set up said power hitters.
8) The Twins need pitching more than a RF if they were to deal Span or Willingham. They have outfielders galore in the minors; get over wishing the Twins had another one.

chopper0080
07-12-2012, 11:49 AM
I don't see clearing an outfield position as a NEED, but if the Twins can improve their middle infield or starting pitching by trading a current outfielder, they have to consider it. I find it hilarious that people think the Twins HAVE to trade an outfielder when in fact, they should only do so if they get a solid offer which improves some key areas of this team that are lacking.

nicksaviking
07-12-2012, 12:02 PM
I don't thnk Hunter's coming back unless the Twins look like a contender, and they won't. That being said, if Span gets moved, I could totally see the Twins going after him. Everyone thought the Twins had the outfield covered this year when people were excited about Span plus a combo of Revere, Benson, Parmelee and Plouffe. The Twins inked Willingham anyway and as it turned out, it was a much needed signing.

James
07-12-2012, 12:07 PM
I think some people are missing an obvious solution as well. Say you trade Span and get some pitching. Good, we need pitching. You move Revere to CF and you can put Parmelee at RF. It's not a bad option. Parmelee gets his ML at bats and plays a position he's familiar with. Later, if they trade Morneau, you move Parmelee to 1B and bring up someone like Hicks or Aracia.

If Span is not traded... Good, we have Span, who is good at CF and being a lead off hitter.

Oxtung
07-12-2012, 12:17 PM
I say you start grooming Chris to be the first baseman of the future and let the chips fall where they may. If Justin has a good season in 2013, yay. A win. If he doesn't, Chris is ready to start taking playing time from him and you start platooning the two players into the 1B/DH role at some point next season.

Worst case scenario is that you have performing first basemen in Minnesota and Rochester, which is a good problem to have. If neither performs, then you know you need outside help going forward.

The Twins have lots and lots of outfielders. They don't have any first basemen.

I agree that Parmelee's future is at 1B. I just don't see the downside of playing him in RF for the first half of the season (assuming a Span/Revere/Willingham trade). Unless Benson comes out swinging and gets back to AAA I don't think he's ready in May (and if he does then it's time to rethink things), do you? Hicks, Arcia, Sano, Rosario, etc... aren't ready for another year minimum (that's not to say someone won't get forced into action but the Twins shouldn't be counting on one of them next spring). I guess I'd rather see Parmelee in the lineup than any of the AAAA players we have stocked. So unless you're worried about playing in RF hurting Chris' play at 1B, I guess I don't understand what the problem is.

Nick Nelson
07-12-2012, 12:29 PM
I agree that Parmelee's future is at 1B. I just don't see the downside of playing him in RF for the first half of the season (assuming a Span/Revere/Willingham trade). Unless Benson comes out swinging and gets back to AAA I don't think he's ready in May (and if he does then it's time to rethink things), do you? Hicks, Arcia, Sano, Rosario, etc... aren't ready for another year minimum (that's not to say someone won't get forced into action but the Twins shouldn't be counting on one of them next spring). I guess I'd rather see Parmelee in the lineup than any of the AAAA players we have stocked. So unless you're worried about playing in RF hurting Chris' play at 1B, I guess I don't understand what the problem is.

Agreed. The Twins may need a RF in the short-term and they seem to believe Parmelee will hit. So why not give him some run out there? I'm sure he'll be pretty awful defensively but they've lived with Delmon/Kubel/Willingham etc in the past.

Oxtung
07-12-2012, 12:33 PM
Agreed. The Twins may need a RF in the short-term and they seem to believe Parmelee will hit. So why not give him some run out there? I'm sure he'll be pretty awful defensively but they've lived with Delmon/Kubel/Willingham etc in the past.

Haha....In another thread there was a puddle on the floor from the drooling over an OF with Hicks, Revere and Benson. Imagine what Willingham, Revere, Parmelee looks like!!!

Brock Beauchamp
07-12-2012, 12:44 PM
Agreed. The Twins may need a RF in the short-term and they seem to believe Parmelee will hit. So why not give him some run out there? I'm sure he'll be pretty awful defensively but they've lived with Delmon/Kubel/Willingham etc in the past.

Well, I'm becoming more convinced that a Torii Hunter farewell tour in RF is what the Twins should be aiming for in 2013. He won't cost much more than Span and we know what we'll get out of the guy. It's a good stop-gap measure until Hicks is ready.

I'd prefer to save Parmelee in case Morneau falters. Even if Justin doesn't falter, he can DH more often while Chris gets reps at first later in the season.

Basically, I don't see any reason to jump the gun and force Parmelee into a position he doesn't play well when it's not hard to find reasonably priced corner outfielders on the market.

Oxtung
07-12-2012, 01:07 PM
Well, I'm becoming more convinced that a Torii Hunter farewell tour in RF is what the Twins should be aiming for in 2013. He won't cost much more than Span and we know what we'll get out of the guy. It's a good stop-gap measure until Hicks is ready.

I'd prefer to save Parmelee in case Morneau falters. Even if Justin doesn't falter, he can DH more often while Chris gets reps at first later in the season.

Basically, I don't see any reason to jump the gun and force Parmelee into a position he doesn't play well when it's not hard to find reasonably priced corner outfielders on the market.

So you think the emotional and economic (selling tickets to see his fairwell tour) advantages of Torii in RF is greater than the future building of playing Parmelee there? Often times we as fans only look at the baseball side of things to the detriment of the business side (I am definitely guilty of that at times) and I can see there being a need to draw fans for reasons other than the competitiveness on the field. So that is a real question, I'm not trying to be a smart ***. If Parm/Morneau split 1B/DH reps where do Mauer/Doumit get their AB's (see stats in next 2 posts)?

***EDIT to add quip about next 2 posts***

Oxtung
07-12-2012, 01:13 PM
To put some numbers to those AB's from 2012:

DH AB:
Doumit: 90 AB
Mauer: 88 AB
Morneau: 77 AB

1B AB:
Morneau: 175 AB
Parmelee: 87
Mauer: 50

Catcher AB:
Mauer 145
Doumit: 116
Butera: 62

Oxtung
07-12-2012, 01:23 PM
As % of personal AB's:

Morneau
DH: 37%
1B: 63%

Mauer
DH:31%
1B:18%
C: 50%

Doumit
DH: 42%
1B: 0%
C: 49%
RF: 10%

***EDIT: Fixed Doumit's %****

stringer bell
07-12-2012, 01:45 PM
Long term, Parmelee should be a 1B, but given what exists right now, if he is ready for the majors he will probably have to play RF. In the almost three weeks until the trade deadline, perceptions can change. Right now, I don't know if there is a functional replacement for Revere in RF. However, by the 31st we may have four or five guys knocking on the door. Long term, there are a lot of good prospects to fill the Twins outfield. One has to believe that enough of them will pan out to part with a pretty nice asset (Span) in order to strengthen the pitching. J-Dog, regarding the Twins' power and power hitters: They are near the bottom in team home runs. They are the only team in MLB with two players accounting for more than 50% of their home runs. Mauer and Doumit, despite having enough at-bats to qualify are in single digits in homers past the middle of the season and only in Minnesota can that be considered a power hitter. The Twins are carrying two guys who haven't homered in more than 500 at-bats (Carroll and Revere) and have Span and Dozier who don't project to get double digit homers in this season. They need more power from more places and I think RF is the most logical place to acquire/promote someone. BTW Oxtung, Doumit has 111% of his homers at DH, RF and C! Sorry, couldn't resist.

Brock Beauchamp
07-12-2012, 01:52 PM
So you think the emotional and economic (selling tickets to see his fairwell tour) advantages of Torii in RF is greater than the future building of playing Parmelee there? Often times we as fans only look at the baseball side of things to the detriment of the business side (I am definitely guilty of that at times) and I can see there being a need to draw fans for reasons other than the competitiveness on the field. So that is a real question, I'm not trying to be a smart ***. If Parm/Morneau split 1B/DH reps where do Mauer/Doumit get their AB's (see stats in next 2 posts)?

***EDIT to add quip about next 2 posts***

No, I simply think that Hunter will put butts in seats and that there's a good chance it won't retard Parmelee's progression as a player that much. I'd like to see Chris get as many reps at first as possible and IMO, there's little reason for him to join the team before next season.

Honestly, I kind of expect Morneau to fall on his face or be traded at some point before July 2013.

In addition, I'd like to point out that if Chris is killing it in AAA and Span is traded, I would not be against bringing Parmelee back up and giving him two months in RF. If he can hack it, maybe he can start there next season.

Basically, there are just so many variables in what happens in the next 2 1/2 months that it's hard to say anything for certain. I'm open to doing different things based on how events unfold.

Oxtung
07-12-2012, 03:10 PM
BTW Oxtung, Doumit has 111% of his homers at DH, RF and C! Sorry, couldn't resist.

Fixed that ... now he only has 101% :D

Oxtung
07-12-2012, 03:11 PM
Basically, there are just so many variables in what happens in the next 2 1/2 months that it's hard to say anything for certain. I'm open to doing different things based on how events unfold.

Isn't that the truth!!

Thanks for walking me through your thoughts :)

diehardtwinsfan
07-12-2012, 04:28 PM
kind of odd in that this is a bit of a nice problem to have. Though I'm not quite sure Hunter is going to want to return here. He's commented before that he'd love to be back, but he's also commented unfavorably about MN since...

Shane Wahl
07-12-2012, 05:34 PM
Have to wonder what the trade value comparison is now between Revere and Span. Might the Twins actually get more for Revere? Clearly he's cheaper than Span right now, but that is also an advantage in terms of making him trade bait.

I would want the Twins to keep Span until Hicks is ready (maybe at next year's trade deadline, at the earliest) at the very least. But I don't really like the idea of messing with the current Twins lineup too much.

stringer bell
07-12-2012, 05:46 PM
Have to wonder what the trade value comparison is now between Revere and Span. Might the Twins actually get more for Revere? Clearly he's cheaper than Span right now, but that is also an advantage in terms of making him trade bait.

I would want the Twins to keep Span until Hicks is ready (maybe at next year's trade deadline, at the earliest) at the very least. But I don't really like the idea of messing with the current Twins lineup too much.

Why not mess with the lineup? This team is going nowhere. For the team to have any chance of contending next year, they need more pitching. Trade the most expendible pieces and get pitching.

diehardtwinsfan
07-12-2012, 08:34 PM
Have to wonder what the trade value comparison is now between Revere and Span. Might the Twins actually get more for Revere? Clearly he's cheaper than Span right now, but that is also an advantage in terms of making him trade bait.

I would want the Twins to keep Span until Hicks is ready (maybe at next year's trade deadline, at the earliest) at the very least. But I don't really like the idea of messing with the current Twins lineup too much.

Revere is not a proven commodity by any means. He's had a nice run after an abysmal start, but lets be realistic, anyone can do that in a small sample. Teams should pay a decent price for Span. If Revere keeps doing it, he should fetch something nice when Hicks/Arcia/Benson are knocking at the door.