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View Full Version : Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 1



stringer bell
07-09-2012, 09:25 PM
Play Casilla more and/or recall Florimon

The Twins have divided up the middle infield between Casilla, Carroll, and Dozier. Casilla and Carroll were the regulars until Dozier was recalled, at which time he became the regular SS, moving Carroll mostly to second and Casilla to the bench. At the break, you can throw a blanket over the three offensively--Dozier's OPS is .599, Carroll's is .597 and Casilla's is .577, all substandard. Defensively, Dozier has been poor--13 errors in 53 games--Carroll has been good, and Casilla probably a bit better than good. Carroll has played second, short and third, while Casilla has played almost solely at second and Dozier has played exclusively at short. In less playing time, Casilla is 10 for 11 in SB, while Dozier and Carroll have both stolen six bases.


If all the players were the same age or had the same major league experience, this would be an ideal job sharing situation. It isn't because Carroll is a long-in-the tooth veteran, Casilla has multiple years and Dozier is a rookie. If the Twins are going to be good, they need better play from shortstop than they have received this year. I think they need to see if Dozier can be that guy. He has shown flashes, but he hasn't hit much for more than a month and he has had periods of time when his defense has been unacceptable. If the Twins think he would benefit from more minor league time, then the Twins should recall Florimon, who is reputed to be a good defender, has a bit of power and quite a bit of speed. The question is whether he can hit.


Jamie Carroll has been a utility player all of his career. He is on track to play in the most games and have the most plate appearances of his career. He is currently in a deep slump and his overall line just doesn't merit everyday play. The Twins aren't going to win anything this year and investing another 250 plate appearances in a powerless 38 year old middle infielder makes no sense.


That leaves Casilla. Alexi has a track record and it is mixed at best. He has been inconsistent on the field, with a history of injuries. In 2008, he emerged from oblivion to be a regular and lead an unlikely run to game 163, but he was injured late and when handed a starting job was horrendous the following year. Last year, after sinking to the end of the bench, Casilla was among the best players on the team when they went on their only good run of the season. When he suffered what ended up being a season ending injury, the team went in the tank. Casilla got a raise this year because of arbitration and will be eligible for arb again this offseason before becoming a free agent after 2013. The Twins need to know whether he can be an everyday player, a utility guy or less. I think a month's worth of games would be a fair test. He could play his way to a DFA or non-tender or he could get a raise and maybe a multiyear deal.

mike wants wins
07-09-2012, 09:30 PM
Casilla is a bad baseball player (at the MLB level). I'd rather they call up Floriman or something, anything, other than play Casilla more. What more do you need to see to understand that he's not a legit MLB starting 2B?

Top Gun
07-09-2012, 10:03 PM
Matt Maloney will undergo Tommy John surgery.

Maloney revealed the news himself on Twitter. "My season is officially over," he tweeted. "Gotta have tommy john surgery. Gonna be a lengthy recovery, but I'll be back stronger then ever." Maloney, who allowed 10 runs over 11 innings earlier this season for the Twins, will be sidelined until around midseason next year.


Source: Matt Maloney on Twitter (https://twitter.com/mo44maloney/status/222504039454228483)

stringer bell
07-09-2012, 10:20 PM
Casilla is a bad baseball player (at the MLB level). I'd rather they call up Floriman or something, anything, other than play Casilla more. What more do you need to see to understand that he's not a legit MLB starting 2B?I'm not a believer in defensive metrics, but my eyes see an excellent defender at second base. Casilla has the ability to be a disruptive force on the bases, so the only factor is hitting enough. I think he's a marginal big league regular if he can hit .250, which is pretty close to his lifetime average.

Badsmerf
07-09-2012, 10:36 PM
Casilla is a bad baseball player (at the MLB level). I'd rather they call up Floriman or something, anything, other than play Casilla more. What more do you need to see to understand that he's not a legit MLB starting 2B?

I wouldn't go that far. Casilla has plenty of value as long as his speed holds up. I don't think he's a long-term solution, but he is better than and should be playing in front of Carrol.

IdahoPilgrim
07-09-2012, 10:52 PM
I also would like to see Casilla playing regularly. Is he our long-term 2B? No. But until we get one (whoever that is) he's the best option. Then you have a choice: play Dozier at short to get MLB experience and bench Carroll, or play Carroll at short and send Dozier down to Rochester. Granted, he won't get experience hitting MLB pitchers down there, but he will get experience fielding the position, which is I think his biggest liability right now. A shortstop in AAA gets just as many chances as a shortstop at MLB. Let him spend the rest of the year learning the position, and maybe next year he'll be better prepared for the show.

greengoblinrulz
07-09-2012, 11:15 PM
Matt Maloney will undergo Tommy John surgery.

Maloney revealed the news himself on Twitter. "My season is officially over," he tweeted. "Gotta have tommy john surgery. Gonna be a lengthy recovery, but I'll be back stronger then ever." Maloney, who allowed 10 runs over 11 innings earlier this season for the Twins, will be sidelined until around midseason next year.


Source: Matt Maloney on Twitter (https://twitter.com/mo44maloney/status/222504039454228483)

GREAT, now they decide to have the surgery on a pitcher....but its Maloney???

USAFChief
07-09-2012, 11:16 PM
Carroll might be around in 2013. Can't say I believe the same about Casilla.

I can understand the argument for playing Casilla, I just don't see a major league player there.

glunn
07-10-2012, 12:09 AM
I can understand the argument for playing Casilla, I just don't see a major league player there.

Chief, you are probably correct, but I was thinking the same thing about Plouffe last year. Maybe this is a team with more than one late bloomer?

USAFChief
07-10-2012, 12:55 AM
Chief, you are probably correct, but I was thinking the same thing about Plouffe last year. Maybe this is a team with more than one late bloomer?

Possible, but Casilla will be 28 this month, has had mulitple unsuccessful opportunities to lock down a job, and 1600+ MLB PAs at .250/.306/.333.

IMO that ship has sailed.

Even with that, I can understand the argument he probably should be playing ahead of Carroll.

snepp
07-10-2012, 01:00 AM
Pffft on Casilla. Sure, he may as well play, but there's very little future there.

glunn
07-10-2012, 01:07 AM
Possible, but Casilla will be 28 this month, has had mulitple unsuccessful opportunities to lock down a job, and 1600+ MLB PAs at .250/.306/.333.

IMO that ship has sailed.

Even with that, I can understand the argument he probably should be playing ahead of Carroll.

That makes sense to me as well. And I seem to recall a few flashes of Plouffe-like streaks from Casilla, and it seems possible that Plouffe and Revere might inspire Casilla to realize more of his potential.

I would also like to see Florimon get a chance.

old nurse
07-10-2012, 01:15 AM
Pedro is stopgap at best. It is not like he was blocked at the major league level in Baltimore

glunn
07-10-2012, 01:31 AM
Pedro is stopgap at best. It is not like he was blocked at the major league level in Baltimore

His history is not bright, but if he plays next to Plouffe, then maybe some magic could hit him as well. And it would be nice to see just how slickly he can field, if only for a couple of weeks. In the meantime, I don't see the harm from sending Dozier down for a while to work on his game in a lower pressure environment. This seems like a luxury of being in last place -- the goal can be development for the future, not winning now.

jokin
07-10-2012, 02:01 AM
Casilla is a bad baseball player (at the MLB level). I'd rather they call up Floriman or something, anything, other than play Casilla more. What more do you need to see to understand that he's not a legit MLB starting 2B?

Did you read Stringerbell's entire post? Have you been watching the games this year? Casilla is easily having his finest year defensively. He has saved countless runs and ended many an inning, snaring line-shots, and seeing-eye, hard-hit grounders, to his left and right, frequently laying out full-horizontal and adroitly turning DPs as both initiator and middle-man- which has gotten the Twins pitchers out of many threatening situations and the club far and away leads the majors in that department. FWIW, given the quantifiable metrics that are available, Casilla ranks 7th among all active 2B for 2010-12 and 2011-12 and 2nd for 2012 alone in UZR/150. If you evaluate him solely as a hitter, I see where you're coming from, but even there, if he gets an extended run or two before the season ends, he historically has had a couple of short 10-25 day runs per year where he hits for high average and he does have 2 seasons where he hit above positional average. I fully agree with the OP, establishing his value for trade purposes and future arb worth as a utility player should be a priority in the 2nd half. If Caroll rightly returns to the career role he is accustomed as utility infielder (he currently is on pace to play 153 games, the most in his career) and can play that to age 40 (through 2014), than Casilla should play more now, with Florimon getting his shot in September. Is there anyone else knocking at the door to take that spot in 2013? Eddie Rosario is at least two years away, and there's no firm evidence in yet that he will master 2B. The Twins have to prioritize their spending on pitching, the MI has demonstrably been shored up from last year's disaster of a year with a relatively cheap fix. Hopefully Dozier continues to improve and/or Florimon definitively takes the job away from Casilla.

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 07:09 AM
Casillas saving grace is that he'd be an upgrade for many contending teams (not much of one, but that tells you how bad the MI is right now)... Do agree that defensively he's much improved. That said, I dont' think he's in the 2013 plans at all, which is why he's doing what he's doing now.

Badsmerf
07-10-2012, 07:16 AM
I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 07:20 AM
Play Dozier. Past that, I don't much care. All the BYTOers know my stance on Casilla. If he's healthy and his head has been forcibly removed from his rectum, he's a league average guy.

The problem is that his health and skull rectal removal surgery are always temporary things. He has all kinds of upside but can't put it together for more than a couple hundred PAs a season.

Cody Christie
07-10-2012, 07:25 AM
I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

Carroll is already under contract for next season while Casilla would have to go through the arbitration process for the third time. The Twins could just decide to pass on Casilla and fill the utility role with someone from the minors.

Cody Christie
07-10-2012, 07:26 AM
He has all kinds of upside but can't put it together for more than a couple hundred PAs a season.

Sounds like he has been hanging out with Liriano too much.

James
07-10-2012, 10:56 AM
I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.
Is Casilla worth around the $2MM that he would probably get through arbitration next year though. That is the question.

I'm not saying Carroll is going to be worth the money he will be making either.

Florimon is an interesting person to throw in the mix, but the question is where do you put him? He has been playing a SS exclusively this season (execpt for one appearance as a pitcher). Would you move Dozier to 2B and have Florimon play SS, or would you put him at a position that he has only played 2 times in his professional career?

mike wants wins
07-10-2012, 11:10 AM
I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.

Mauerzy4Prez
07-10-2012, 11:14 AM
Last night on bumper to bumper Ron Coomer made his weekly appearance. In discussion about the second half plans he made a comment about the idea to try Mastrionni at 2nd base... When checking his stats I can see that he has played 68 games at 2nd in the minors. FPCT is .965, 21 DP's and 10 errors.

This idea is pretty intriguing to me. His speed and ability to create havoc on the bases is probably best on the team. The guy so far has proven he can handle major league pitching. I think this would not be a bad idea to clear the way for some of the OF prospects we have coming up and also filling a hole at 2nd base.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 11:16 AM
I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.

On the other hand, more savings could be found by keeping Casilla and offloading Carroll (if that's even possible given his contract).

At the end of the day, I'm not sure it matters much.

stringer bell
07-10-2012, 11:19 AM
I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.I don't believe in the metrics, but I do believe Casilla has been very good defensively for the past year. I do value defense in the middle infield and that is why I have questions about Dozier, not from his disappointing swoon at the plate (I think he'll recover). Casilla has been enigmatic, and I'm sure I wouldn't commit long term to him, but the Twins do need to know whether they will non-tender him or maybe if they want to DFA him this summer. I think there is a good player there who can provide speed and defense from the middle infield. If the top 7-8 hitters are hitting, his offense and baserunning would be a bonus as long as the defense was better than good.

stringer bell
07-10-2012, 11:22 AM
Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

Seth Stohs
07-10-2012, 11:23 AM
I believe that in 2013, we will see a lot of Pedro Florimon at SS. He likely won't post a .600 OPS but I've been told his glove is incredible. I'd expect to see Dozier at 2B. I'd like to see Jamey Carroll kept around as insurance and as a mentor for those two. He's a perfect role model for those guys.

mike wants wins
07-10-2012, 11:24 AM
According to fangraphs, Carroll has been much better than Casilla defensively this year, for what it is worth. One of them should go, to save money. The one that stays should be a backup. And, some younger guy should be the starter (with Dozer at SS or 2B).

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 11:28 AM
According to fangraphs, Carroll has been much better than Casilla defensively this year, for what it is worth. One of them should go, to save money. The one that stays should be a backup. And, some younger guy should be the starter (with Dozer at SS or 2B).

Don't put too much stock in the defensive metrics of part-time players using partial season statistics. WAR is basically useless until an entire season has been played and it's a little sketchy until you get two years worth of data. The other defensive metrics aren't much different.

But overall, I agree with your point. One should go. I'd prefer it be Carroll because he's making too much money but I'm not going to get too riled up about it one way or the other. If the Twins think Carroll is a good mentor character for the young infielders, so be it.

Winston Smith
07-10-2012, 11:30 AM
Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 11:36 AM
Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.

Nothing I've seen has given me any indication that Trevor Plouffe can handle a MLB middle infield position. He's doing just fine at third. Let him stay there.

USAFChief
07-10-2012, 11:39 AM
Did you read Stringerbell's entire post? Have you been watching the games this year? Casilla is easily having his finest year defensively. He has saved countless runs and ended many an inning, snaring line-shots, and seeing-eye, hard-hit grounders, to his left and right, frequently laying out full-horizontal and adroitly turning DPs as both initiator and middle-man- which has gotten the Twins pitchers out of many threatening situations and the club far and away leads the majors in that department. FWIW, given the quantifiable metrics that are available, Casilla ranks 7th among all active 2B for 2010-12 and 2011-12 and 2nd for 2012 alone in UZR/150. If you evaluate him solely as a hitter, I see where you're coming from, but even there, if he gets an extended run or two before the season ends, he historically has had a couple of short 10-25 day runs per year where he hits for high average and he does have 2 seasons where he hit above positional average. I fully agree with the OP, establishing his value for trade purposes and future arb worth as a utility player should be a priority in the 2nd half. If Caroll rightly returns to the career role he is accustomed as utility infielder (he currently is on pace to play 153 games, the most in his career) and can play that to age 40 (through 2014), than Casilla should play more now, with Florimon getting his shot in September. Is there anyone else knocking at the door to take that spot in 2013? Eddie Rosario is at least two years away, and there's no firm evidence in yet that he will master 2B. The Twins have to prioritize their spending on pitching, the MI has demonstrably been shored up from last year's disaster of a year with a relatively cheap fix. Hopefully Dozier continues to improve and/or Florimon definitively takes the job away from Casilla.

This is satire, right? Countless runs? Seeing-eye, hard hit grounders?

Mauerzy4Prez
07-10-2012, 11:40 AM
Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.

Leave Plouffe at third... he has earned that spot and nobody can make a case right now to be a better fit. What has Valencia done to deserve the starting job back? Guy is hitting .244 with an OBP of .281 in 213 AB's in AAA... not to mention he his k/bb is 34/11

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 11:42 AM
I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

Casilla is also arb eligible for the 2nd time now... He's not cheap anymore, and this team cannot get him cheaply. He isn't going to be around much longer.

mike wants wins
07-10-2012, 11:47 AM
No way you move Plouffe at this point. He's succesful offensively and defensively right now. Why mess with that?

and, I agree, defensive stats for this year are not worth much.....not in precision. but, they are probably directionally useful.....

USAFChief
07-10-2012, 11:51 AM
Don't put too much stock in the defensive metrics of part-time players using partial season statistics. WAR is basically useless until an entire season has been played and it's a little sketchy until you get two years worth of data. The other defensive metrics aren't much different.

But overall, I agree with your point. One should go. I'd prefer it be Carroll because he's making too much money but I'm not going to get too riled up about it one way or the other. If the Twins think Carroll is a good mentor character for the young infielders, so be it.

I've never understood why people accept that defensive metrics in small doses are "basically useless," but if you add up enough useless info, it then becomes useful and accurate.

For hitting data, people understand that small sample sizes are often unsustainable. But nobody says "it's a small sample size, Plouffe didn't really hit seven HRs in a week.". They say "he did hit those HRs, but I doubt he'll keep ii up."

But with defensive metrics, that's exactly what people say. Even the "inventor" of UZR says exactly that: "I know UZR says Delmon Young was a plus defender for the first half, but he really wasn't. What we need to do is take a whole bunch of this unreliable data, so it becomes reliable."

If the math is wrong in small sizes, adding up a bunch of wrong samples doesn't somehow make it right.

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 11:52 AM
Nothing I've seen has given me any indication that Trevor Plouffe can handle a MLB middle infield position. He's doing just fine at third. Let him stay there.

I have a tough time believing that Plouffe made it all the way through the minor league system killing spectators on the 1B line. I suspect his problems had a lot to do with nerves and adjustments on both sides of the game. I have no problems letting him play out the year at 3rd, but if the bat is legit, it would be wise to move him back to the middle knowing that he's figured out the offensive side of the game.... Not to mention that huge positional advantage that moving Trevor back to the MI brings. I agree that it's dependent on Valencia figuring enough out to come back and play league average 3B, but it's well worth it if he can.

ashburyjohn
07-10-2012, 12:15 PM
Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

Mastro was drafted as a 2B coming out of college and after a season in the low-A league the Blue Jays moved him off of there and into the outfield. When then Twins obtained him there seemed to be a philosophy to let him try 2B again, as perhaps his best chance to get to the majors, but it was less than a full success, and up with the big club he's wound up playing only in the OF. It's not the craziest idea to try it in the second half of a lost season, but the track record is that his most recent AAA coaches didn't consider him ready for prime time there, and his previous team had apparently decided he could not succeed there.

mike wants wins
07-10-2012, 12:21 PM
Actually, usachief, that is exactly how the law of large numbers works. It is hard to explain on a messageboard, but statistical analysis is very mature and you'll have to trust it, or take some stats lessons online.....

BobH
07-10-2012, 12:23 PM
Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

It's worth a try. He's not going to get a lot of time in the outfield, is he?

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 12:27 PM
I've never understood why people accept that defensive metrics in small doses are "basically useless," but if you add up enough useless info, it then becomes useful and accurate.

For hitting data, people understand that small sample sizes are often unsustainable. But nobody says "it's a small sample size, Plouffe didn't really hit seven HRs in a week.". They say "he did hit those HRs, but I doubt he'll keep ii up."

But with defensive metrics, that's exactly what people say. Even the "inventor" of UZR says exactly that: "I know UZR says Delmon Young was a plus defender for the first half, but he really wasn't. What we need to do is take a whole bunch of this unreliable data, so it becomes reliable."

If the math is wrong in small sizes, adding up a bunch of wrong samples doesn't somehow make it right.

After 2 ABs, guys are often hitting 1.000. Obviously, we should extrapolate that out for an entire season, no?

Fielding stats are even more so. Every guy will get to 95% of the same balls hit to them. That means the difference lays in those final 5% of hit balls.

And it takes time to gather enough of that "5%" to say anything meaningful about the player. You remove outliers (say, a guy tripping, getting an unusually bad jump, or getting lucky by being shifted badly on an oddly hit ball) by waiting until you have more data. Outliers have far less impact if an odd play counts for .1% instead of 1% of the gathered data. In the meantime, those same outliers can drastically skew data one way or the other in SSS.

It's Statistics 101 stuff.

USAFChief
07-10-2012, 12:29 PM
Actually, usachief, that is exactly how the law of large numbers works. It is hard to explain on a messageboard, but statistical analysis is very mature and you'll have to trust it, or take some stats lessons online.....

Actually, no.

That isn't how the law of large numbers works. It works like it does with Plouffe's seven HRs. "those numbers are accurate, they actually did happen, but wait, they'll normalize."

But it doesn't say "these numbers aren't accurate, they didn't really happen, but if we take enough of these numbers that didn't happen and add them up, they DID happen."

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 12:31 PM
I have a tough time believing that Plouffe made it all the way through the minor league system killing spectators on the 1B line. I suspect his problems had a lot to do with nerves and adjustments on both sides of the game. I have no problems letting him play out the year at 3rd, but if the bat is legit, it would be wise to move him back to the middle knowing that he's figured out the offensive side of the game.... Not to mention that huge positional advantage that moving Trevor back to the MI brings. I agree that it's dependent on Valencia figuring enough out to come back and play league average 3B, but it's well worth it if he can.

It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

Mauerzy4Prez
07-10-2012, 12:43 PM
It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

I would also add that a common critique of Plouffe is his inconsistency in his foot work at SS. When you play short, you make throws from all over the diamond, constantly from different angles. If your foot work is not sound, your entire body is out of whack on your throws. Moving him to third greatly increases his ability to make throws from a consistent position on the field and allows him to get his feet set almost always before he throws. He hasn't been perfect at 3B either... however it is very obvious just to the naked eye that the position change is working to his advantage.

stringer bell
07-10-2012, 01:17 PM
I would also add that a common critique of Plouffe is his inconsistency in his foot work at SS. When you play short, you make throws from all over the diamond, constantly from different angles. If your foot work is not sound, your entire body is out of whack on your throws. Moving him to third greatly increases his ability to make throws from a consistent position on the field and allows him to get his feet set almost always before he throws. He hasn't been perfect at 3B either... however it is very obvious just to the naked eye that the position change is working to his advantage.Yes, you don't need to be a stat wizard to see that Plouffe fits third better than short or second. I have been pleasantly surprised by his ability to charge and throw and he is steady enough going left and right. Third base isn't about range--it is reactions and footwork and while Plouffe isn't going to win a gold glove, I think he's been as good a defender as Valencia.

Craig in MN
07-10-2012, 01:26 PM
On the topic of Casilla in 2013, it should be noted that there the middle infielder free agent market is going to be pretty terrible. You aren't going to get anything better than Casilla for $1-$2 million. That's not say that I really want him back, just that he might be harder to replace than some think. He's young and a better defender than a lot of those guys.

mike wants wins
07-10-2012, 01:35 PM
I don't read the comments from the UZR creator the same way you do. I read that the calculation is not trustworty, not that it didn't happen. but maybe we are both reading it the way we want to....either way, i always take the defensive metrics as directional, not a measurement of precision. So, someone rated 9 vs someone rated 4, that has meaning to me. Someone rated 7 vs 6.5, well, not so much.

jokin
07-10-2012, 01:47 PM
This is satire, right? Countless runs? Seeing-eye, hard hit grounders?

Lots of mlb.com blackouts in Tuscon, gameday doesn't cut it.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 01:48 PM
I don't read the comments from the UZR creator the same way you do. I read that the calculation is not trustworty, not that it didn't happen. but maybe we are both reading it the way we want to....either way, i always take the defensive metrics as directional, not a measurement of precision. So, someone rated 9 vs someone rated 4, that has meaning to me. Someone rated 7 vs 6.5, well, not so much.

Pretty much this. Defensive metrics are far from perfect; everyone who understands that freely admits it. But because something isn't perfect doesn't mean it's completely invalid, either. If two players are close, outside reference is needed. But if the players are miles apart statistically, you know there is something to that player that is good or bad.

Again, defensive metrics are generally evaluative tools, not predictive tools. They take too long to accumulate data to be predictive in nature. By the time you have a guy's stats nailed down, he's two years older.

jokin
07-10-2012, 01:50 PM
Casillas saving grace is that he'd be an upgrade for many contending teams (not much of one, but that tells you how bad the MI is right now)... Do agree that defensively he's much improved. That said, I dont' think he's in the 2013 plans at all, which is why he's doing what he's doing now.

Which is why he needs to play now.

jokin
07-10-2012, 01:52 PM
On the topic of Casilla in 2013, it should be noted that there the middle infielder free agent market is going to be pretty terrible. You aren't going to get anything better than Casilla for $1-$2 million. That's not say that I really want him back, just that he might be harder to replace than some think. He's young and a better defender than a lot of those guys.

Spot on. Money must be directed toward pitching first and pitching last...and everywhere inbetween.

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 01:52 PM
It's not only his arm. As he matures, it's been widely speculated that Trevor wouldn't be a middle infielder. His range and hands weren't exactly praise-worthy, either. My understanding is that on his best of days, he's not as rangy as Dozier (who also has doubts about sticking at short), nor does he have as good of hands. His only plus attribute is his arm, which is erratic.

Then why on earth did he spend so much time there? I'm not saying he's going to be a plus defender, but up until his chance in MLB, all the reports said average. But don't tell me that he's not a huge asset in the middle if he can put up circa 2000-2005 Jeff Kent like numbers up the middle, as that what he's done for the last month and a half.

My point is that if (and that's a big if) Valencia were able to recapture some form and be a league avg 3B, then moving Plouffe back into the middle makes a ton of sense. If not, you can delay that until Sano's ready, at which point Plouffe is going to be pretty expensive unless the team locks him down.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 02:09 PM
Then why on earth did he spend so much time there? I'm not saying he's going to be a plus defender, but up until his chance in MLB, all the reports said average. But don't tell me that he's not a huge asset in the middle if he can put up circa 2000-2005 Jeff Kent like numbers up the middle, as that what he's done for the last month and a half.

My point is that if (and that's a big if) Valencia were able to recapture some form and be a league avg 3B, then moving Plouffe back into the middle makes a ton of sense. If not, you can delay that until Sano's ready, at which point Plouffe is going to be pretty expensive unless the team locks him down.

Which might be an okay idea if Valencia wasn't putting up Punto-esque numbers in Rochester. Right now, Plouffe is hitting well and playing an adequate third. Why mess with that when no one else in the system looks like they can fill in for him?

TheLeviathan
07-10-2012, 02:45 PM
Really, it was only a matter of time before we heard the "Plouffe to second!" arguments come back. He's had a heck of a run here, but he's got a lot to prove to stay a part of this team's future. Two years ago we were saying the similar things about Valencia so people shouldn't get too far ahead of themselves. He's comfortable at third and hitting, let's not mess with that success.

Putting him at a position he's never played or one that he was never that great of a fit for in the first place would be incredibly stupid.

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 03:05 PM
Which might be an okay idea if Valencia wasn't putting up Punto-esque numbers in Rochester. Right now, Plouffe is hitting well and playing an adequate third. Why mess with that when no one else in the system looks like they can fill in for him?

I think this means we agree.... I wouldn't force it unless Valencia does, but I'm quite willing to do it if Danny steps it up.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 03:11 PM
I think this means we agree.... I wouldn't force it unless Valencia does, but I'm quite willing to do it if Danny steps it up.

Right now, I don't think it's a good idea no matter how Valencia is playing... but if the team has Trevor take spring training reps at second next season, I wouldn't complain.

Plouffe is going to have a hard enough time adjusting to major league pitching and playing a position he hasn't played much before now (third base). Now that he's succeeding, it's not the time to pull the rug out from under him again.

Fire Dan Gladden
07-10-2012, 03:34 PM
Carroll is already under contract for next season while Casilla would have to go through the arbitration process for the third time. The Twins could just decide to pass on Casilla and fill the utility role with someone from the minors.

Casilla will be non-tendered

jokin
07-10-2012, 04:13 PM
Casilla will be non-tendered


Which again, going back to the OP, is why he needs to play now, to establish possible value now.

Thrylos
07-10-2012, 04:46 PM
Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player.

I find the dislike towards Casilla fascinating. Fact: Casilla and Valencia are the same age (give or take a month). Fact: Casilla has been playing better in a middle infield position (where the expectations about hitting are not the same as a corner position) that Valencia has at third base. Casilla's hitting as a MIF is better than Valencia's as a third baseman. Fact: Casilla is either the best or the second best (Revere) on the bases in this team. He has a lot of value and just entering his prime. He also needs consistent playing time... On the other hand, of course there has been a communication problem with him and the manager and the coaches like with most other Latin American players... And this is not Casilla's fault

Shane Wahl
07-10-2012, 05:00 PM
Casillas saving grace is that he'd be an upgrade for many contending teams (not much of one, but that tells you how bad the MI is right now)... Do agree that defensively he's much improved. That said, I dont' think he's in the 2013 plans at all, which is why he's doing what he's doing now.

Exactly. I posted awhile ago about dumping grounds for Casilla and Valencia. Sticking to the former here, I believe some relevant teams would be Baltimore, Washington, and San Francisco.

Shane Wahl
07-10-2012, 05:05 PM
I find the dislike towards Casilla fascinating. Fact: Casilla and Valencia are the same age (give or take a month). Fact: Casilla has been playing better in a middle infield position (where the expectations about hitting are not the same as a corner position) that Valencia has at third base. Casilla's hitting as a MIF is better than Valencia's as a third baseman. Fact: Casilla is either the best or the second best (Revere) on the bases in this team. He has a lot of value and just entering his prime. He also needs consistent playing time... On the other hand, of course there has been a communication problem with him and the manager and the coaches like with most other Latin American players... And this is not Casilla's fault

And I find your liking of Casilla fascinating. He has been in the majors for 6 seasons. His speed and his defense (this year) are all he brings. That's it.

Has anyone mentioned Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B, yet? I would like them to just try out the youth movement, get Dozier playing proper defense, and see what Florimon can do.

USAFChief
07-10-2012, 05:13 PM
I have no problem leaving Plouffe at third. He needs to learn a position, and if it's third, that's fine. Although....Mauer to third....

However, I disagree that Plouffe "can't" play 2nd. We don't know. Many of the same people now saying Plouffe has no chance to be a decent second baseman are the same people who were loudly proclaiming Plouffe had no chance to be a third baseman. This despite Plouffe lasting through every minor league level as a SS. Players without infield skills do not make it the majors as a SS. My guess is he could learn second base.

I do agree that it's still an open question whether Plouffe will end up hitting enough to justify a full time job, but it's certainly been encouraging since he's gotten regular ABs, and it certainly merits continued play, somewhere.

jokin
07-10-2012, 05:14 PM

I find the dislike towards Casilla fascinating. Fact: Casilla and Valencia are the same age (give or take a month). Fact: Casilla has been playing better in a middle infield position (where the expectations about hitting are not the same as a corner position) that Valencia has at third base. Casilla's hitting as a MIF is better than Valencia's as a third baseman. Fact: Casilla is either the best or the second best (Revere) on the bases in this team. He has a lot of value and just entering his prime. He also needs consistent playing time... On the other hand, of course there has been a communication problem with him and the manager and the coaches like with most other Latin American players... And this is not Casilla's fault

Plouffe finally finds a spot on the field where he finally looks like he's not dancing on hot coals, this comfort level transfers to his hitting production, and people are actually calling for him to move to spot where he's destined to fail? Remarkable. People, there is only one guy at 2B that can really hit, Robinson Cano. Ian Kinsler makes $7.2Mil, did you watch him butcher ball after ball hit to him last weekend? Want to know who the 6th highest rated 2B in WAR is for 2010-12? Rickie Weeks. Here's his line over that time: 254/350/440. HE MAKES $11 MILLION. Casilla's line over the same period: 257/311/357 for less than 1/10 the cost.

mike wants wins
07-10-2012, 05:14 PM
Casilla was historically bad as a hitter one year, I don't get why everyone keeps ignoring his hitting, like somehow running (when you can't get on base) is more important, or making 1 play every 2-3 weeks that others wouldn't make is more important. He's a league replacement level player, a backup quality player. It's not a communication problem that keeps him from being able to hit. And, no one on this thread is defending Valencia as a MLB player, but nice straw man argument. what do you base "he has a lot of value" on? His 1 WAR per year? He's just not been good, even when he's been "good Alexi".

jokin
07-10-2012, 05:15 PM
Exactly. I posted awhile ago about dumping grounds for Casilla and Valencia. Sticking to the former here, I believe some relevant teams would be Baltimore, Washington, and San Francisco.

Detroit

jokin
07-10-2012, 05:19 PM
Casilla was historically bad as a hitter one year, I don't get why everyone keeps ignoring his hitting, like somehow running (when you can't get on base) is more important, or making 1 play every 2-3 weeks that others wouldn't make is more important. He's a league replacement level player, a backup quality player. It's not a communication problem that keeps him from being able to hit. And, no one on this thread is defending Valencia as a MLB player, but nice straw man argument. what do you base "he has a lot of value" on? His 1 WAR per year? He's just not been good, even when he's been "good Alexi".

Up to his FA year, he's very cheap, on a team that has overpayed others, leaving them few other options until they develop one internally.

I don't think anyone is ignoring Casilla's offense, it's just that defense is just more important than hitting in the MI and you're obviously overstating your case about making 1 play every 2-3 weeks.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 05:22 PM
Casilla was historically bad as a hitter one year, I don't get why everyone keeps ignoring his hitting, like somehow running (when you can't get on base) is more important, or making 1 play every 2-3 weeks that others wouldn't make is more important. He's a league replacement level player, a backup quality player. It's not a communication problem that keeps him from being able to hit. And, no one on this thread is defending Valencia as a MLB player, but nice straw man argument. what do you base "he has a lot of value" on? His 1 WAR per year? He's just not been good, even when he's been "good Alexi".

I'm not going to hold Alexi's epic-awful age 24 season against him. He's been pretty good since that point (though not so much this year).

On the other hand, I don't really disagree with anything else you said. When he plays, he's an alright player. The problem is that he doesn't play enough. Part of that is the front office, part of that is management, part of that is Alexi himself.

At this point, I don't see him starting anywhere but I think he's a solid backup player. I'd rather have him on my team in 2013 than Jamey Carroll (and I also think Carroll is a solid backup).

mike wants wins
07-10-2012, 05:24 PM
Really? You think he makes a play that no other MIF would make more often than 1 time every 10-15 games? How many opportunities are there to even make a play that is a great play? I doubt there are even that many opportunities, let alone that many made.

He's not very cheap, not as a backup or replacement level player. Dozier is very cheap, Casilla will make $2-4MM next year. Replace that with a guy that makes $400K, and put that extra money into a real player (which is what they should do with the bullpen also....). All those $1-3MM add up to money for legit players.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-10-2012, 05:34 PM
Casilla would be a nice stop gap if he could actually play more than a 100 games a year.

Thrylos
07-10-2012, 05:42 PM
Casilla would be a nice stop gap if he could actually play more than a 100 games a year.

He is healthy this year. He is not playing because the Manager of the Millennium is not playing him.

USAFChief
07-10-2012, 05:47 PM
He is healthy this year. He is not playing because the Manager of the Millennium is not playing him.

...and the Manager of the Millennium is not playing him because he hasn't earned any playing time.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-10-2012, 05:51 PM
He is healthy this year. He is not playing because the Manager of the Millennium is not playing him.

He isn't playing because he is the 4th best infield option at this point behind Plouffe, Dozier and Carroll.

I get the whole wanting to trade Caroll thing since he is old and won't be part of the long term future, but Caroll shouldn't be benched on a regular basis for Alexi freaking Casilla who has had his share of chances thus far.

If he wants to play every day he can easily win the job if he can actually put up a .650 OPS at this point.

jokin
07-10-2012, 06:01 PM
Really? You think he makes a play that no other MIF would make more often than 1 time every 10-15 games? How many opportunities are there to even make a play that is a great play? I doubt there are even that many opportunities, let alone that many made.

He's not very cheap, not as a backup or replacement level player. Dozier is very cheap, Casilla will make $2-4MM next year. Replace that with a guy that makes $400K, and put that extra money into a real player (which is what they should do with the bullpen also....). All those $1-3MM add up to money for legit players.

I'm not advocating necessarily keeping him, and certainly not for upwards of $2MM+. I am advocating spending on pitching and prospects and maximizing Casilla's value until the Twins part ways. If you have a "real player" in mind at 2B for the "extra money", I'm listening- who is the "legit player" at 2B that will fulfill your wildest dreams? The won't likely trade for it, and certainly won't sign a FA, so who is it? Dozier? Dinkleman? Beresford?

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 07:47 PM
Detroit


wonder if they have another Oliveros type prospect to give up for him... he'd be a nice upgrade over what they have right now.

jokin
07-10-2012, 08:18 PM
wonder if they have another Oliveros type prospect to give up for him... he'd be a nice upgrade over what they have right now.

Exactly right. I posited this previously and I hope to heck the Twins are inquiring, even if it's within their own division.

Top Gun
07-10-2012, 09:10 PM
To many managers and gm on this board.

old nurse
07-10-2012, 09:17 PM
To many managers and gm on this board.
To many wanna be managers and gms. It is the fantasy of some, let them enjoy the dreams.

IdahoPilgrim
07-10-2012, 09:19 PM
He isn't playing because he is the 4th best infield option at this point behind Plouffe, Dozier and Carroll.

I get the whole wanting to trade Caroll thing since he is old and won't be part of the long term future, but Caroll shouldn't be benched on a regular basis for Alexi freaking Casilla who has had his share of chances thus far.

If he wants to play every day he can easily win the job if he can actually put up a .650 OPS at this point.

I find it difficult to rank him behind Dozier, given Dozier's performance at the plate and in the field. If you want to make the argument that Dozier deserves a chance to play and show what he can do (and that Casilla has already had that chance) I'm willing to listen, but I just don't see how, based on current performance, Dozier is better than Casilla.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-10-2012, 09:25 PM
I find it difficult to rank him behind Dozier, given Dozier's performance at the plate and in the field. If you want to make the argument that Dozier deserves a chance to play and show what he can do (and that Casilla has already had that chance) I'm willing to listen, but I just don't see how, based on current performance, Dozier is better than Casilla.

Thats a valid point, I put Dozier ahead of him just because I think at this point Dozier has a significantly higher ceiling then Casilla and this is his first shot in the majors. If Casilla hadn't had a half dozen shots before I would agree, but the Twins have all but given him the opp to be in the starting lineup every single year if only he had preformed/stayed healthy.

snepp
07-10-2012, 09:26 PM
To many managers and gm on this board.

Oh noes!

jokin
07-10-2012, 09:35 PM
Really? You think he makes a play that no other MIF would make more often than 1 time every 10-15 games? How many opportunities are there to even make a play that is a great play? I doubt there are even that many opportunities, let alone that many made.


How many speculative interrogatories can one paragraph hold? I'll try to answer, based on watching every game this year. 1) Yes 2) "No other"? Hard to answer a speculation this vague, and I don't recall characterizing his plays as ones "no other" can make, it's safe to say based on the eye test that Casilla has made good-to-great "rangy" plays and/or agile DP pivots in virtually every game he has appeared in, and most importantly in the Twins situation, he's doing it at a tiny fraction of the MLB average 2B salary. Which is also in contrast to some of the repeatedly shoddy play shown at 2B by recent Twins' opponents in June and July. 3) 2B year-in/year-out usually have the most Total Chances of any position player (other than 1B), and given the hole frequently at first with a man on base, plus bunt coverages, are required to cover the most ground in the infield. 4) More speculation, less of a question, see the answer to #3

stringer bell
07-10-2012, 10:25 PM
It looks to me like Florimon's upside would be a low OBP, good speed and defense, bottom of the order guy. He isn't allergic to XBH, but he doesn't make solid contact often enough to put up good power numbers. That doesn't scream MLB regular. I still am holding out hope that his hitting improves to a point where he can be in a big league lineup and wow us fans with his defense.

Back to the Alexi/Jamie/ Brian trio. We all know what we can get from Carroll--versatility, steady defense, OK OBP and no power. That absolutely says "utility infielder". It makes sense to me to decide whether Casilla is worth keeping in 2013--as noted above he hasn't played in over 100 games in a season in his career, but so far he's been healthy. Carroll could start once a week at short and once a week at second to rest the two younger players. If Dozier continues to spiral, especially on defense, start Carroll or Florimon there and if Casilla can't get it going by the end of this month, make the decision that he's not part of the future (DFA him whatever). Maybe Alexi can make himself tradeable, maybe he can get a contract for next year or maybe he gets nontendered in the winter.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-10-2012, 11:13 PM
It looks to me like Florimon's upside would be a low OBP, good speed and defense, bottom of the order guy. He isn't allergic to XBH, but he doesn't make solid contact often enough to put up good power numbers. That doesn't scream MLB regular. I still am holding out hope that his hitting improves to a point where he can be in a big league lineup and wow us fans with his defense.

Back to the Alexi/Jamie/ Brian trio. We all know what we can get from Carroll--versatility, steady defense, OK OBP and no power. That absolutely says "utility infielder". It makes sense to me to decide whether Casilla is worth keeping in 2013--as noted above he hasn't played in over 100 games in a season in his career, but so far he's been healthy. Carroll could start once a week at short and once a week at second to rest the two younger players. If Dozier continues to spiral, especially on defense, start Carroll or Florimon there and if Casilla can't get it going by the end of this month, make the decision that he's not part of the future (DFA him whatever). Maybe Alexi can make himself tradeable, maybe he can get a contract for next year or maybe he gets nontendered in the winter.

If it was up to me I'd rather they trade Caroll and keep Casilla around as the UTIL INF/Back up guy off the bench for a couple reasons. Casilla would make 1.75 million (2 mil if you count the club option to decline in 2014) less than Caroll next year (assuming he gets 2 mil in arb) and could provide better speed off the bench if needed.

With all that said, the Twins would still need to find an everyday 2B for 2013 if that's the case, Plouffe maybe is an option if Valencia comes back somewhat effective? Or else you have to roll with Alexi as the every day 2B heading into the season which is far from ideal.

Waverley Wildcat
07-11-2012, 08:10 AM
What about Beresford, currently playing 50% SS & 2b at New Brittain, he shows excellent fielding skills both left and right, only 4 errors in 71 games and his batting is more about contact with the lowest by far Ks by regulars players, power is down but seems to hit the ball a lot.

diehardtwinsfan
07-11-2012, 08:23 AM
did something happen in the Texas series that everyone thinks Dozier is spiraling? He was hitting quite well in Detroit. This is his rookie year, he's not a super prospect by any means.... meaning he's going to take some lumps. This is when you let the kid play and see what he can do without the pressure of knowing that if he makes a mistake he will be on the plane back to Rochester.

The question is not Casilla vs. Dozier. It should be Casilla vs. Carrol at 2nd. Honestly, I don't get the big deal. Like others said, the guy has had a ridiculous number of chances including getting the position handed to him in the offseason only for him to blow it. Next year, he's going to cost what Carrol does as well, which essentially makes him overpriced. He's going to be let go and will sign a 1/1M prove it contract with some other team to be a backup or have a chance to compete for a starting job. The only chance of that not happening is if we can convince a team like Detroit to part with a C+ prospect, as he would be a fairly modest upgrade to their situation, and I doubt playing him every day will effect that... I'd add that playing him every day could also destroy what little value he has.

Brock Beauchamp
07-11-2012, 08:57 AM
did something happen in the Texas series that everyone thinks Dozier is spiraling? He was hitting quite well in Detroit. This is his rookie year, he's not a super prospect by any means.... meaning he's going to take some lumps. This is when you let the kid play and see what he can do without the pressure of knowing that if he makes a mistake he will be on the plane back to Rochester.

The question is not Casilla vs. Dozier. It should be Casilla vs. Carrol at 2nd. Honestly, I don't get the big deal. Like others said, the guy has had a ridiculous number of chances including getting the position handed to him in the offseason only for him to blow it. Next year, he's going to cost what Carrol does as well, which essentially makes him overpriced. He's going to be let go and will sign a 1/1M prove it contract with some other team to be a backup or have a chance to compete for a starting job. The only chance of that not happening is if we can convince a team like Detroit to part with a C+ prospect, as he would be a fairly modest upgrade to their situation, and I doubt playing him every day will effect that... I'd add that playing him every day could also destroy what little value he has.

You said almost exactly what I've been saying. Dozier picked it up in Detroit. He stumbled a bit later but hey, he's a rookie. It happens. Cuddyer and Kubel took their lumps before emerging as quality players and they were better prospects than Dozier in their MiLB stints.

I feel like Casilla and Carroll are pretty much interchangeable. I like Casilla because he's younger and will be slightly cheaper than Carroll. On the other hand, having an old MI vet around might help Dozier. Either way, I'm not going to get worked up about it.

Oxtung
07-11-2012, 09:07 AM
There are several points that I would like to make:

1) Casilla has NO trade value right now. Teams at this point are looking for that player(s) that are going to send them to the top of their division. Mentioned trade partners so far:
Twins: Casilla .236, .308, .577
Nats: Espinosa .232, .374, .683.....only 25yr old and hit 21 home runs last year.
Tigers: Santiago .230, .316, .620
Orioles: Andino .231, .318, .611
Giants: Theriot .275, .322, .632
Who here actually thinks any team looks at that line and thinks "I need to add that to my team! We're going to the playoffs!". If you want to argue teams in the offseason might trade for Casilla if he plays the second half and demonstrates an improvement I wouldn't disagree but right now he has no trade value.

2) Casilla vs. Florimon vs. Dozier vs. Carroll re:2013
To me Casilla is the odd man out here. Florimon and Dozier are potential pieces of the future and the only way to truly know is to give them a shot. Casilla has repeatedly shown that he is not the long term solution not because he doesn't have flashes of mediocrity but because he can't stay on the field and has shown a propensity to crater offensively. Carroll hit .290, .347, .706 last year which is just slightly above his career numbers. To me it is worth keeping him around to see if he can return to his career norms. Maybe his age has caught up to him and he is just downhill but maybe he is just having a poor year at the plate. Carroll is also owed $3.75M next year where as Alexi is owed $0. That is probably the biggest reason to keep Carroll.

3) "Carroll is a career backup." Carroll has played in more games than Alexi Casilla in every season except 1. So if Carroll is a "career backup" what does that make Alexi?

stringer bell
07-11-2012, 09:24 AM
There are several points that I would like to make:

1) Casilla has NO trade value right now. Teams at this point are looking for that player(s) that are going to send them to the top of their division. Mentioned trade partners so far:
Twins: Casilla .236, .308, .577
Nats: Espinosa .232, .374, .683.....only 25yr old and hit 21 home runs last year.
Tigers: Santiago .230, .316, .620
Orioles: Andino .231, .318, .611
Giants: Theriot .275, .322, .632
Who here actually thinks any team looks at that line and thinks "I need to add that to my team! We're going to the playoffs!". If you want to argue teams in the offseason might trade for Casilla if he plays the second half and demonstrates an improvement I wouldn't disagree but right now he has no trade value.

2) Casilla vs. Florimon vs. Dozier vs. Carroll re:2013
To me Casilla is the odd man out here. Florimon and Dozier are potential pieces of the future and the only way to truly know is to give them a shot. Casilla has repeatedly shown that he is not the long term solution not because he doesn't have flashes of mediocrity but because he can't stay on the field and has shown a propensity to crater offensively. Carroll hit .290, .347, .706 last year which is just slightly above his career numbers. To me it is worth keeping him around to see if he can return to his career norms. Maybe his age has caught up to him and he is just downhill but maybe he is just having a poor year at the plate. Carroll is also owed $3.75M next year where as Alexi is owed $0. That is probably the biggest reason to keep Carroll.

3) "Carroll is a career backup." Carroll has played in more games than Alexi Casilla in every season except 1. So if Carroll is a "career backup" what does that make Alexi?It makes Casilla injury prone and/or disappointing. However, the gulf between a soon-to-be 28 year old and a 38 year old is pretty wide. Can Carroll honestly be expected to get better? Carroll may have played in more games, but he has never, ever been a regular at one position for even half a season. Has anyone had a career arc where they become regulars at 38 and have their best years then? Casilla could be a late bloomer--at almost 28, there is a small chance that he will improve to the point where he is pretty good. Florimon, at best, looks like a Casilla, but at shortstop. He's 2.5 year younger, but has eight big league at-bats and only this year cracked AAA.

Shane Wahl
07-11-2012, 09:42 AM
Yangervis Solarte with a .760 OPS in AAA this year, mostly at 2B, but with some time at 3B and in LF. Six homers. 30 walks / 26 strikeouts. 21 doubles. He would have altered this conversation significantly, I think. Not sure why he didn't sign as a six-year FA with the Twins org. Either the Twins didn't want him, or because the Twins FOOLISHLY didn't promote him to AAA late last year when he clearly deserved it instead of the plethora of jokers on that polluted AAA roster last year, he simply wanted to get the hell away.

Whatever is going to be the plan next year has to be started this year. So Florimon should definitely get some time (at short) and Dozier can play 2B. If one really thinks that saving $4.5 million or whatever is going to get the Twins to spend that money on pitching, then clearly Florimon and Dozier in, while Casilla and Carroll out (meaning . . . NISHIOKA . . .). I don't think Carroll is going to have any real suitors, though, and he does have very good value as a backup for those three infield positions.

If Florimon doesn't work out this year, oh well. Carroll and Nishioka are options still. Beresford is definitely someone who needs to continue AA numbers in AAA before I would think about including him in this mix.

Brock Beauchamp
07-11-2012, 10:20 AM
One person no one is mentioning in this thread is Michael... He's quietly starting to put together a decent season in Fort Myers.

Given his age and that his early season play could be due to shaking the rust off and adjusting to wooden bats, it wouldn't be a shock to see him get a call to New Britain this season (though I think he'll start next season there if things continue to progress). Either way, I think he'll start progressing through the ranks quickly if he stays healthy.

By the middle of next year, we could be talking about him getting the call to the Twins.

Curt
07-11-2012, 10:25 AM
Dozier is playing because he has potential. Casilla has spent most of his. That said, Casilla is still about one year younger than Carroll was when he got to the majors for the first time.

I don't think Dozier is the long term solution at short but I don't really see another around the bend. I'm willing to let him try it the rest of this year and probably next. I would not be saying that if the Twins were truly contenders though.

Sincerely, I hope Casilla is in this type of discussion somewhere in ten years. I think Casilla can play the Carroll roll for the Twins next year at 1/2 or 2/3 the price. I expect Carroll to be here and Casilla to be elsewhere though.

I'm glad no one mentioned Hardy.

Oxtung
07-11-2012, 02:41 PM
1) However, the gulf between a soon-to-be 28 year old and a 38 year old is pretty wide.
2)Can Carroll honestly be expected to get better?
3) Carroll may have played in more games, but he has never, ever been a regular at one position for even half a season. Has anyone had a career arc where they become regulars at 38 and have their best years then?
4) Casilla could be a late bloomer--at almost 28, there is a small chance that he will improve to the point where he is pretty good. Florimon, at best, looks like a Casilla, but at shortstop. He's 2.5 year younger, but has eight big league at-bats and only this year cracked AAA.

1) At this point statistically it isn't. As a matter of fact the 38yo is outplaying the 28yo.

2) Carroll's career averages and his recent past both say this year is well below his norms offensively. Like I said just last year he hit .290/.347/.706 which was only slightly above his career average. So unless you're claiming his age has finally caught up with him, which is a possibility, yes he has a good chance to bounce back and have a good year next year.

3) This is just flat out wrong. In 2006 he started 102 games at 2B, 212 games with the Dodgers in '10-'11 and 76 games with the Twins so far. Whether or not he plays his best ball at this point in his career doesn't really matter. What matters is will he play better than Casilla and/or are his intangibles worth more to the club?

4) You're absolutely right. The 28 year old that has been below average in his career 1600 PA and hasn't been able to play even 100 games in a season has a chance to be pretty good but the 25yo with the supposedly great defense that has never been given a opportunity has no chance and shouldn't be given a shot. [/sarc]

stringer bell
07-11-2012, 03:55 PM
1) At this point statistically it isn't. As a matter of fact the 38yo is outplaying the 28yo.

2) Carroll's career averages and his recent past both say this year is well below his norms offensively. Like I said just last year he hit .290/.347/.706 which was only slightly above his career average. So unless you're claiming his age has finally caught up with him, which is a possibility, yes he has a good chance to bounce back and have a good year next year.

3) This is just flat out wrong. In 2006 he started 102 games at 2B, 212 games with the Dodgers in '10-'11 and 76 games with the Twins so far. Whether or not he plays his best ball at this point in his career doesn't really matter. What matters is will he play better than Casilla and/or are his intangibles worth more to the club?

4) You're absolutely right. The 28 year old that has been below average in his career 1600 PA and hasn't been able to play even 100 games in a season has a chance to be pretty good but the 25yo with the supposedly great defense that has never been given a opportunity has no chance and shouldn't be given a shot. [/sarc]It is a value judgement that Carroll is outplaying Casilla. The difference between them is OPS is so small that an official scorer's ruling or a lucky bounce could give Casilla a higher OPS. I would say that Casilla has played the best defense of the three middle infielders and his prowess on the bases is worth a bit more. Carroll's hitting numbers are pedestrian and powerless and his best years have been augmented by batting eighth in NL lineups and getting walked more than he otherwise would. The quote from me was that Carroll had never been a major league regular at one position and I believe that is the case. According to baseball-reference.com the most games he ever started at one position in one season is 102 (less than 2/3) and that was when he was 32. I like Florimon. I hope he learns to hit at the higher levels and can force himself into the argument for playing time in the middle infield. Just like Casilla, he hasn't had to climb past Ripken and Cano to get to the majors, but unlike Casilla, he has only had a cup of coffee in the big leagues at age 25.

As for Carroll--he brings great versatility and durability to the table--despite minimal talent, he has carved out an admirable major league career. He has been a very good utility infielder because of those traits. I just don't think he should routinely be starting especially for a noncontender at 38 years of age.

CDog
07-11-2012, 04:29 PM
Carroll's hitting numbers are pedestrian and powerless and his best years have been augmented by batting eighth in NL lineups and getting walked more than he otherwise would.

I wondered and worried about this, but his AL walk rates and NL walk rates are about the same. Carry on.