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John Bonnes
07-09-2012, 07:03 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?777-The-Twins-2013-Payroll-Crunch

Highabove
07-09-2012, 07:20 PM
I believe the current payroll rest at 97 million. Marquis 3 million dollars was added a few weeks into the season.

clutterheart
07-09-2012, 07:33 PM
Vikings & Wolves should be thanking their lucky stars they got money this year. Because Twins should be the poster boys for the "no public money funding a stadium" crowd. Target Field is becoming proof positive that a new stadium does not mean the FO will spend to fix their past decisions / mistakes.

Twins Fan From Afar
07-09-2012, 07:34 PM
Good post, John. If the second half of 2012 continues like the first half, and attendance continues to dwindle, I think we'll see a lower 2013 payroll.

But I disagree with the term "fantasies" to describe retaining Liriano. Sure, it's a fantasy when he's great, or even effective, but I'd argue that the prospect of paying him $12.5 million for that other 50 percent of the time when he's one of the worst pitchers in baseball is tough to swallow. He's an interesting case either way.

Jim H
07-09-2012, 07:36 PM
I actually expect that the budget will go up, at least slightly. Some of the extra money allotted to the draft this year will likely go back to the payroll. Besides, just because the money is available, doesn't mean you should spend it.

Last year, the free agent crop wasn't exceptionally strong. It appears it could be stronger and deeper this year. A 2nd consideration is that many of these free agents can't be signed to one year contracts. If you are going to lose some of your current players because of a long term free agent signing, you better be pretty sure your farm system can cover that.

IdahoPilgrim
07-09-2012, 07:41 PM
One minor correction: the numbers in USA Today only included those on major league rosters, so that $94M didn't include Nishioka. If that's added in, the payroll for this year is $97M. That means they can spend an additional $21M to what is listed in your article and keep payroll same as last year.

mike wants wins
07-09-2012, 08:46 PM
Isn't Nishi on the hook for next year also?

And, I agree with John. The payroll will drop, and the starting pitching will be bad again, and attendance will drop, and a vicious cycle of self-fulfilling prophecy will occur.

ashburyjohn
07-09-2012, 08:47 PM
> ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching?

Why would we want 6 more Jason Marquises?

minn55441
07-09-2012, 08:49 PM
They will have to sign one if not Two FA starting pitchers. Hopefully they won't be of the Jason Marquis caliber. Terry Ryan wants to win, he knows he needs pitching to win. The Pohlands know that without a winner, revenues will continue to drop. I don't think that we will see a drop in payroll. It may not top 100 million, but it will be above 85 million.

jorgenswest
07-09-2012, 08:50 PM
Cot's has them at $100,435,000. I don't think that includes Zumaya. The USA Today data may not have included Nishioka and Marquis who were in minors.

If correct, the difference might be closer to 11.5 million which may have signed Edwin Jackson. It is questionable whether he would have come to Minnesota for the same pay as he received from the Nationals so it may not be a good comp.

Edwin Jackson helps but it does not turn the Twins into a winning team.

As for next year, I really hope that they do 1 or 2 larger contracts for a more elite player instead of the 3-6 million value contracts. For every Doumit who returns good value, we get three guys like Nishioka, Marquis and Carroll. I would prefer the Twins get one pitcher for the money those 4 get and fill in the other three spots with team control players or minor league deal guys. The same goes with the contracts for Span and Blackburn. They both signed what was portrayed to be team friendly seals to avoid arbitration. Are we really better off? Sure Span would be getting a good return next year but we are stuck with Blackburn's bad deal.

You always overpay for top players and risk their injury. Let's just stop paying 3-6 million for the mediocre or injury risk players. Let's risk it on an elite player instead.

Of course, the Twins have already started on the other path. Instead of putting every resource towards pitching first, they signed Doumit to another friendly contract. I understand that I am in the minority and maybe the sole voice on Doumit's contract. Is it really reasonable to project two more healthy seasons from Doumit? What does that leave them for pitching? I don't know, but I want the pitcher who is worth 3.5 million more than the one we get.

Mchans24
07-09-2012, 09:13 PM
Carroll? I think he is a good pickup and that Terry Ryan actually had a really good year in free agency. There wasn't a ton of free agent pitchers that would have done anything for us last winter. This year is a much better year for that, Ryan knew that. Look for them to make strong run at Greinke who will go to a smaller market team. I also think they will gamble on Gibson being ready to help when healthy. You also haven't accounted for them picking up a pitcher through a trade.

IdahoPilgrim
07-09-2012, 09:22 PM
Isn't Nishi on the hook for next year also?


Yes, but that was already in John's table.

IdahoPilgrim
07-09-2012, 09:27 PM
So, if we have $21M available to maintain payroll at it's current level, does that have any implications for picking up options? Baker has a 9.25M option, and while he will be recovering from TJ surgery, I think a Baker at 90% is still better than a AAAA pitcher.

mike wants wins
07-09-2012, 09:31 PM
I don't think Baker is at 90% for most of next year. I just can't see them rolling that die.

Seth Stohs
07-09-2012, 09:38 PM
What if they're able to acquire a C-prospect for Morneau and only have to pick up, say, $4 million of his 2013 contract? There is $9.5 million more available.

I would like to keep Jamey Carroll around because he's been solid and a good influence and all that, but there's some money there.

What if they're able to trade Span for three decent prospects. There's $4 million 2013 and more for the following year.

I'm one who agrees that payroll is a little overrated. Just have to make good decisions and then get players to perform.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
07-09-2012, 09:40 PM
Hopefully Span and Morneau are traded. That clears 18.75 unless the Twins chip in. There are good prospects to be had!! They could then stick Parmelee at 1B because he is more than ready. He just needs playing time. Mastroianni wouldn't be an awful fill-in in my opinion for Span. Call up Clete because he doesn't deserve AAA ABs.That would help change the organizational arrangement of the minors. It's a big problem for outfielders.

Seth Stohs
07-09-2012, 09:42 PM
I'd absolutely bring back Scott Baker on a low-base, high-incentive contract that would include a second year option.

Top Gun
07-09-2012, 09:51 PM
Trade them all because Joe Public is tired of getting screwed buy the rich.

striker_86
07-09-2012, 11:12 PM
Bring back Baker (not for 9.5 though). Hope Gibson is ready, and sign a legitimate starter with the rest of the $$.

Our rotation would be

1. New Ace
2. Diamond
3. Baker
4. Gibson
5. Blackburn or whoever works out in spring training

Rosterman
07-09-2012, 11:30 PM
Isn't Capps all but signed for 2013 with a decent option pick up?

Mchans24
07-10-2012, 12:04 AM
Please, no more Blackburn in 2013, I would rather have Latroy Hawkins return as a starter than see Blackburn throw any more 89mph gopher balls!! What the hell happened to this guy?

East Coast Twin
07-10-2012, 06:03 AM
John - According to mlbtraderumors.com, Alex Burnett is on pace to be arbitration eligible after this year as a "super two."

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 07:05 AM
Unless Baker wants to stay here, this isn't going to be a case where we can just renegotiate with him... He has no incentive to do so. We will have to decline that option and fight for him in FA, but I could see a lot of teams going after him strong. With 21 M to spend, we don't have enough. We need more than 2 decent pitchers. We need 3. I'd be OK with one of them being a 1 year "prove it" deal for something like what Bedard got this year, but we need something more stable too. 21M isn't going to get you two very good FA pitchers. It will get one 1 and a value type pitcher.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 07:49 AM
Unless Baker wants to stay here, this isn't going to be a case where we can just renegotiate with him... He has no incentive to do so. We will have to decline that option and fight for him in FA, but I could see a lot of teams going after him strong.

If teams haven't been going strong after guys like Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt in recent years, there is no way they go hard after Scott Baker.

Mr. Ed
07-10-2012, 08:21 AM
The Twins should have gotten some insurance coverage on Baker's deal(if they had it covered) so that's a couple of dollars to re-invest in something.
Discouraging. As posted elsewhere, other franchises are making the moves to draw fans and get better. Because WINNING still is the best draw for a team.
It just seems like the Twins don't get that.

roger
07-10-2012, 08:25 AM
I'd absolutely bring back Scott Baker on a low-base, high-incentive contract that would include a second year option.

+1. I believe that Scott and Mr. Ryan will work out something beneficial to both sides. Seth, there was language in the old CBA that restricted the amount a player could be cut, etc. Are you aware of any limitations in the new CBA that could make working something reasonable out with Baker impossible?

luckylager
07-10-2012, 08:29 AM
Blackburn??... Blackburn??!!!
Hendricks should be able to take that #5 spot

Boom Boom
07-10-2012, 08:39 AM
So under this back-of-the-napkin analysis, Mauer is taking up almost 1/3 of payroll?

First, I don't think the Twins would put themselves in that kind of situation. Also, if I'm Mauer, and Terry Ryan slashes payroll even further than he's already done, I might request a trade to a team that might win a championship in the next 6 years.

amjgt
07-10-2012, 08:41 AM
Would you package Liriano with Morneau to get a team to eat all of Morneau's owed money?

That feels like a hefty price to pay to just shed payroll, but if it frees up that much extra money to go after players that are part of the long-term solution, I think it needs to be considered.

Now, I think we could probably get a couple mid-grade prospects as well, but the question is, would you do it for nothing (in terms of prospects)

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 09:03 AM
If teams haven't been going strong after guys like Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt in recent years, there is no way they go hard after Scott Baker.

and what incentive does Baker have to working it out now as opposed to waiting till FA?

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 09:12 AM
and what incentive does Baker have to working it out now as opposed to waiting till FA?

None. I was only commenting that I think he'll be a rather easy signing should the Twins want him this offseason. Right now, there is no reason for either side to do anything except wait until he's further along in his recovery.

East Coast Twin
07-10-2012, 09:23 AM
+1. I believe that Scott and Mr. Ryan will work out something beneficial to both sides. Seth, there was language in the old CBA that restricted the amount a player could be cut, etc. Are you aware of any limitations in the new CBA that could make working something reasonable out with Baker impossible?

That clause remains in the current CBA (page 12 at http://bizofbaseball.com/docs/2012-16CBA.pdf). The clause though is limited to players that are "under reserve." I assume Baker is no longer "under reserve" once the Twins decline the option year.

twinsnorth49
07-10-2012, 09:23 AM
I'd absolutely bring back Scott Baker on a low-base, high-incentive contract that would include a second year option.

Amen, Baker is going to have to make some concessions on that option, every other team is going to be just as leery about him as the Twins and be hesitant to make a big commitment. I think an incentive laden contract with a larger base on a second year option is worth it for both sides. I'd like to see him back next year.

beckmt
07-10-2012, 09:34 AM
I feel the Poland's should take a page out of the Wild's book. You have to spend money to make money. They will have to sign at least one decent FA pitcher (probably from the second tier(if not two)). The lineup is solid and maybe you can make a trade in spring training out of the excess outfielders. I would trade Span this year if the offer was right. They will not get enough for Morneau to make moving him worthwhile.

amjgt
07-10-2012, 10:07 AM
1. Perkins is RH?

2. For the sake of argument, let's say you could package Liriano and Morneau and not be on the hook for any of Morneau's salary next year. Also, let's say the payroll remains at 100mil (which is where it really is right now with the Nishi, Marquis, and Zumaya money).

So.... Now our committed payroll next year is 62.45 million with 37.55 left to spend on probably 2 SP and a 1B/DH type (which could be Parmelee, but then his "C IF" spot would open up). The rest gets filled in with Minor league promotions and maybe a couple 1-2mil flier contract to fill out the Bullpen and/or utility IF role. So, let's knock it down to 34 mil to spend.

With that kind of money to spend I want to get AT LEAST 1 (probably 2) guys that I know will be part of the 2014-6 solution.

And there is nothing "un-doable" about any of that. The important part is getting Morneau's 14.0 off the books next year.

Adam Krueger
07-10-2012, 10:33 AM
I think the Twins FO outta stand behind their commitments to MN and MN Twins fans and spend the money to make this team competitive. If you have a good team on the field, the fans will come. It was through their mistakes (along with some bad luck) that this team arrived at its current state so they should spend the money to get a good product back on the field. It is unbelievable to me that this team would consider cutting payroll considering the decade-plus long battle they went through to get this new stadium built. Time to suck it up Pohlads, and put some money into this team.

JB_Iowa
07-10-2012, 10:46 AM
I, too, believe that this year's payroll is higher than the USA Today numbers indicate (I posted a thread on this a while back and we went through all the numbers).

I don't know what will happen with payroll for 2013. I'm personally of the opinion that rebuilding needs to occur and that in the long run, the Twins need to somehow acquire a #1 and #2 starter. And I recognize that it might be necessary to "harbor" money from the next year or two to do that. And I'd be okay with that.

I'm more interested in seeing whether this team has a plan to become competitive with the rest of the league (and not just with the Central). But then, I've been waiting for that for a long time.

I'm also truly concerned about the growing gap in local TV revenues. The Twins may have TF but presumably their TV revenues are nothing like those in expanding markets.

mikeee
07-10-2012, 11:39 AM
If they totally gut the team, I'd expect that to have a very negative impact on the attendance.
Seems like they need to find a way to compete without spending much tho.

DPJ
07-10-2012, 11:56 AM
The last thing this team should be doing is spending big for the Hamels or Grienkes on the free agent market. Besides the fact that they'd have to overspend to get them here I don't think adding one of those guys is gonna turn this abomination around.

USAFChief
07-10-2012, 12:01 PM
The last thing this team should be doing is spending big for the Hamels or Grienkes on the free agent market. Besides the fact that they'd have to overspend to get them here I don't think adding one of those guys is gonna turn this abomination around.

Wouldnt Hamels and/or Grienke still be around when the current minor leaguers everyone is counting on finally get to the big leagues?

amjgt
07-10-2012, 01:07 PM
Wouldnt Hamels and/or Grienke still be around when the current minor leaguers everyone is counting on finally get to the big leagues?

Let's say we sign one of them for 5/90. I think most of us would agree that a lot of what we have in the minor league projects to be at the big leagues by 2015.

That still leaves 3 years of that 5 year contract.

YLT
07-10-2012, 01:28 PM
Let's say we sign one of them for 5/90. I think most of us would agree that a lot of what we have in the minor league projects to be at the big leagues by 2015.

That still leaves 3 years of that 5 year contract.

Have the Twins ever spent 5 years / $90 million on a FA starting pitcher? None of those top level starting pitcher FAs would want to come here anyway.

I'm very interested to see if the Twins are able to shop Morneau to any extent. Hell, I'd be happy to see a team simply eat his contract - no C level prospects needed. The idea of bundling Liriano w/ Morneau is interesting, though that's a pretty specific need that I doubt many teams have.

amjgt
07-10-2012, 02:18 PM
Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Cardinals

amjgt
07-10-2012, 02:21 PM
As for "Have the Twins ever spent 5 years / $90 million on a FA starting pitcher?"

No.

But, I don't think the Twins have ever been so frustrated with the SP situation. If the Twins can clear Morneau's $$$, I think they go after a top 3 FA SP. Clearing Morneau is the key.

The offense will be just fine without Morneau, and you could probably argue that it might get better if you insert a Replacement Level 1B into the mix

Jeremy Nygaard
07-10-2012, 02:33 PM
If the Twins roster remains unchanged between now and the end of the year, the team payroll will be $99,676,000 (assuming that Joe Nathan's buyout was, as stated previously, on last year's books).

As players are activated from the disabled list - and other players are sent down - that number should drop. Regardless, the number for this year is, in fact, under $100 million.

The formatting is not great, but you can view it all here (http://www.mancenter.com/articles/viewarticle.aspx?artID=32). I have also not added contract details for each player, but for most guys that have split time between the major and minors, you can figure out their prorated salary like this: PrS = (S/183 * D) with S being their yearly salary ($480k being the minimum) and D being their days of service time.

Craig in MN
07-10-2012, 02:34 PM
The Twins aren't going to sign an elite free agent pitchers, but there are a ton of the next level guys this year. They gave Willingham 3/25 this offseason, which was totally out of character...they could do 3/30 for the right pitcher, as they certainly have the need and the payroll room. I don't even think they'll do that though. My money is on trading Span for an experienced starter. TB will be loosing Upton in CF and doesn't have an obvious replacement, and Shields is getting more expensive and money is always tight there. That seems like a decent start for trade talks, and it's a lot less risky than signing a pitcher. Revere would move to CF and the Twins could sign a stopgap OF to play (with Mastriani) until Hicks, Benson or Arcia are ready.

That would likely leave the Twins starting with Sheilds, Blackburn, Diamond, <free agent> and the best of a bunch of AAA/AA guys to fill out the rotation. That free agent could be Scot Baker but could just as easily be some bargain bin arm or a decent pitcher if they want to keep payroll steady. Hendriks, Gibson, Walters, Devries, Wimmers, Albers, Darnell, Hermson, etc would probably all be trying to earn their way out of Rochester throughout the next couple seasons. That's not a great rotation, but better than this year, and there's enough talent in the minors to give the rotation some hope.

Fire Dan Gladden
07-10-2012, 02:43 PM
Does anybody else realize we are not the only team looking for pitching? All things being equal, who is going to come here?

The Twins will not get a top tier or 2nd tier FA pitcher. Any pitcher they do bring in will be overpaid (see Matt Capps and Jason Marquis). At least that will give all the haters something else to complain about.

YLT
07-10-2012, 03:52 PM
Does anybody else realize we are not the only team looking for pitching? All things being equal, who is going to come here?

The Twins will not get a top tier or 2nd tier FA pitcher. Any pitcher they do bring in will be overpaid (see Matt Capps and Jason Marquis). At least that will give all the haters something else to complain about.

Agreed. Just because the Twins have the money doesn't mean those 2-3 (Hamels, Grienke and maybe Peavy) top tier guys are going to sign with a cellar dweller. It's a little harsh to say that the Twins couldn't land a 2nd tier guy as there are more of them in this year's FA class than in recent past. All tier 1 and 2 guys are going to be overpaid - that's just how it works out. If the Twins really are looking to cut payroll then they best roll with whatever sticks against the wall from AAA and maybe hope to luck out on a budget-level arm or two for the time being. It's hard to build a future contending team when you keep throwing money at the Jason Marquis' and Nick Blackburn's of the world or under-utilize high-leverage situation guys like Capps. I dislike everything about the Capps' deals but even more infuriating is how much he makes to pitch 60 innings a year. "Closers" are some of the worst ways to spend money in my opinion - especially a supposed "born closer" of Matt Capps caliber. That was off topic but I needed to get it off my chest.

Thrylos
07-10-2012, 05:49 PM
Based on the free agents that are out there (Both Hamels and Greinke have been called "Head Cases", as well, in the past.) and what it will take to sign them (and the Twins' correctly will not offer a multi-year deal,) A 1yr $12.5 M offer to Liriano is a no-brainer. Even if he takes it, which is unlikely. This team cannot build the rotation with free agents. This is why it is imperative to trade Span, Morneau, Carroll or whomever else (Hicks?) can bring a solid MLB-ready young SP or too. Then there will be plenty of $ left to sign a decent FA (not a bottom feeder like Marquis and the other TR SP signings of lore - Livan/Ponson/etc ) for $6-7M for a couple years and offer something for Baker. They do need a couple more or 3 SPs via trade/FA, to add to 2-3 of Hendriks/Diamond/De Vries/Deduno/Duensing/Gibson to have a chance next season. And Blackburn should be gone or in the pen. And if Gardy does not like it, they should be no Gardy (and really there should be no Gardy for the good of the team, but...)

Kobs
07-10-2012, 07:08 PM
Carroll? I think he is a good pickup

Why? At least Tolbert was cheap.

notoriousgod71
07-10-2012, 07:39 PM
Bring back Baker (not for 9.5 though). Hope Gibson is ready, and sign a legitimate starter with the rest of the $$.

Our rotation would be

1. New Ace
2. Diamond
3. Baker
4. Gibson
5. Blackburn or whoever works out in spring training

That is literally four guys you can't depend on and possibly five depending on who our new "ace" is. I really don't see how that's any better than this year.

Fireflyfan
07-10-2012, 10:07 PM
I've seen that Tampa Bay Rays might be willing to trade James Shields. Shields is signed for the next 2 seasons at 9 million and 12 million. He's durable and affordable. I don't know what they would want back for him. We have some outfield prospects and they could use some infeild help. Maybe Alexi Casilla and a couple of prospects could get it done.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-10-2012, 10:17 PM
I've seen that Tampa Bay Rays might be willing to trade James Shields. Shields is signed for the next 2 seasons at 9 million and 12 million. He's durable and affordable. I don't know what they would want back for him. We have some outfield prospects and they could use some infeild help. Maybe Alexi Casilla and a couple of prospects could get it done.
If the Rays needed OF help maybe they would make a perfect partner for a straight up Shields for Span straight up swap, but to be honest that doesn't really make sense for either team.

Also Casilla has very little if any trade value at this point and giving up a top prospect(plus more likely) for two years of a guy like Shields is not something a club like the Twins should be making at this point.

Craig in MN
07-10-2012, 11:10 PM
If the Rays needed OF help maybe they would make a perfect partner for a straight up Shields for Span straight up swap, but to be honest that doesn't really make sense for either team.

It doesn't makes sense if the teams planning on a full scale rebuild or all out push to compete. Neither team really seems interested in either of those though. If they are trying to compete (at all) short term, it makes sense for them to try to trade decent players for other decent players that fill more significant holes. Even at that, it's not at all a perfect trade, but it kind of makes sense. Honestly, I don't think I'd do the trade if offered, but I'm not sure. But it fills holes and in some ways it gives both sides more financial flexibility.

I don't see the Twins trading Span for anyone that isn't going to contribute right away. They just aren't going to go into a full rebuild (especially after extending Doumit). That means they need to do something major about the rotation. They aren't going to sign multiple good free agent pitchers. Terry Ryan will look to resign someone (Pavano/Baker/Liriano) or do trades instead. If they end up wanting to trade for a starter, I don't think there is a better option to trade to make that happen than Span. It might not be with Tampa, though.

jorgenswest
07-10-2012, 11:39 PM
I would respect the Rays too much to trade for Shields. We don't want them to pull a Kazmir on us.

Hopefully they will take a close look at the data. His fastball has maintained velocity, but he throws it less often this year (27% compared to 42% career). The difference in speed between his cutter and fastball is closer than they have been in any other time during his career. His FIP still looks good. His BABIP may be high but it was in 2010 also. Is this the guy we want the Twins to invest in? Why not take the same money and offer it to a free agent? We lose a pick, but it will be less value than what we will have to give up to get Shields.

Top Gun
07-10-2012, 11:40 PM
Morneau will hit .300 and 40 hrs next seson and everyone will be happy.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-10-2012, 11:59 PM
Why not take the same money and offer it to a free agent? We lose a pick,

The Twins wouldn't lose a pick..

glunn
07-11-2012, 12:11 AM
The Rays are great at trading guys who look a lot better than they are. If they want to trade Shields, there is probably something wrong with him.

jorgenswest
07-11-2012, 12:42 AM
The Twins wouldn't lose a pick..

If the Twins sign someone like Sanchez, wouldn't the Marlins get two picks (one from Twins) as long as they offered a compensation level contract?

My assumption was that if they offered a pitcher a multiyear contract at Shields level salary, the pitcher they targeted would require compensation.

diehardtwinsfan
07-11-2012, 08:03 AM
If the Twins sign someone like Sanchez, wouldn't the Marlins get two picks (one from Twins) as long as they offered a compensation level contract?

My assumption was that if they offered a pitcher a multiyear contract at Shields level salary, the pitcher they targeted would require compensation.

Nope, new CBA. The Marlins would have to offer him arb of 1/12.5 and then they'd get a pick right in front of the Twins, but the Twins would keep their pick.

diehardtwinsfan
07-11-2012, 08:04 AM
Morneau will hit .300 and 40 hrs next seson and everyone will be happy.

hope so!

snepp
07-11-2012, 08:07 AM
Nope, new CBA. The Marlins would have to offer him arb of 1/12.5 and then they'd get a pick right in front of the Twins, but the Twins would keep their pick.

Signing teams surrender their first round pick, unless they draft in the top 10, then they surrender their second.

diehardtwinsfan
07-11-2012, 08:09 AM
I would respect the Rays too much to trade for Shields. We don't want them to pull a Kazmir on us.

Hopefully they will take a close look at the data. His fastball has maintained velocity, but he throws it less often this year (27% compared to 42% career). The difference in speed between his cutter and fastball is closer than they have been in any other time during his career. His FIP still looks good. His BABIP may be high but it was in 2010 also. Is this the guy we want the Twins to invest in? Why not take the same money and offer it to a free agent? We lose a pick, but it will be less value than what we will have to give up to get Shields.

Just looking through his stats, something is up... He's kind of a Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde with batters faced and hits allowed as he's had some very good seasons where he's lead the league in hits allowed. His stats this year are not horrible, but not as good as in the past, though he's coming off of a season where he threw 250 innings (a career high by a lot). He's also expensive as someone else pointed out. The Rays may be able to take advantage of a weak pitching market to get someone to overpay, but I'm not sure he's going to reel in a top propsect, much in the same way that Liriano will not either.

drivlikejehu
07-11-2012, 08:44 AM
The problem for the Twins is that they have no starting pitching and little in the way of pitching prospects. So at what point will they be able to field a competitive rotation, and how will it happen? This could easily be a 5+ year issue. Trades can help, but free agency would almost certainly have to be part of any solution.

Brock Beauchamp
07-11-2012, 08:46 AM
Just looking through his stats, something is up... He's kind of a Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde with batters faced and hits allowed as he's had some very good seasons where he's lead the league in hits allowed. His stats this year are not horrible, but not as good as in the past, though he's coming off of a season where he threw 250 innings (a career high by a lot). He's also expensive as someone else pointed out. The Rays may be able to take advantage of a weak pitching market to get someone to overpay, but I'm not sure he's going to reel in a top propsect, much in the same way that Liriano will not either.

Yeah, James Shields has a lot of potential but is an up-and-down pitcher. Much like a certain lefty we love to bash...

kab21
07-11-2012, 12:07 PM
ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching?

they would still be terrible with Buehrle or CJ Wilson and they would be stuck with that pitcher in the latter years of the contract (like Lowe or Burnett). History is not very kind to mid level, 30 something pitchers that sign big contracts. I know the board is clamoring for some big spending on on a couple of starters this winter but I think it's a mistake. Either go big for a stud or pick a guy with a shorter commitment even if he's unimpressive. The problem is that there aren't a lot of starters out there and there will be a lot of competition for them.

John Bonnes
07-11-2012, 01:00 PM
Thanks for the insight guys on what is and is not included in the USAToday numbers. Also, great discussion.

James Richter
07-11-2012, 03:17 PM
Since moving to Target Field, the Twins' average combined spending on the MLB payroll and the Draft has been about $110M. It was about $119M last year, about $112M this year. As dreadful as the first half was, they're on pace to get the 6th or 7th overall pick next year (slotted at about half what they gave Buxton), and it doesn't look as though they'll have any supplemental picks. They're on their way to spending no more than half what they spent on the 2012 draft next year. So if they maintain a Major League payroll of about $100M, they will have reduced total player expenditures by $6-7M.

Do they need to cut any more than that? I doubt it - they're still on pace to draw over 2.8 million in attendance. The money will be there to sign two good starters. The only question is whether they'll have the will to spend it.

Brock Beauchamp
07-11-2012, 03:37 PM
Since moving to Target Field, the Twins' average combined spending on the MLB payroll and the Draft has been about $110M. It was about $119M last year, about $112M this year. As dreadful as the first half was, they're on pace to get the 6th or 7th overall pick next year (slotted at about half what they gave Buxton), and it doesn't look as though they'll have any supplemental picks. They're on their way to spending no more than half what they spent on the 2012 draft next year. So if they maintain a Major League payroll of about $100M, they will have reduced total player expenditures by $6-7M.

Do they need to cut any more than that? I doubt it - they're still on pace to draw over 2.8 million in attendance. The money will be there to sign two good starters. The only question is whether they'll have the will to spend it.

Hopefully the front office is smart enough to realize that basing payroll on the previous year's attendance is letting the tail wag the dog.

Spend a little less, win a little less the next season, which causes you to spend a little less, which means you win even less...

The stadium is only three years old. If you spend a few bucks on pitching and build a contender, butts will immediately return to the seats. Lose for 2-3 more years, it's no longer a given that those butts will return to the seats immediately. Look at a team like San Diego. The Padres can be playing well but people won't go watch their games... The fanbase has zero faith in the team's continued ability to win, which means that they stay away even during winning seasons, which then limits ownership's ability to retain players and maintain a high level of play in following seasons...

Fireflyfan
07-11-2012, 09:51 PM
He's not an ace but he has pitched over 200 innings and 30+ starts each of the last 5 years and he's got a decent contract. The biggest thing this team needs now is innings out of the rotation. He will be an upgrade over the back of our current rotation.

danomyte
07-12-2012, 03:03 PM
What if they're able to acquire a C-prospect for Morneau and only have to pick up, say, $4 million of his 2013 contract? There is $9.5 million more available.

I would like to keep Jamey Carroll around because he's been solid and a good influence and all that, but there's some money there.

What if they're able to trade Span for three decent prospects. There's $4 million 2013 and more for the following year.

I'm one who agrees that payroll is a little overrated. Just have to make good decisions and then get players to perform.

I agree that payroll can be overrated but only when a team is doing all that it can to put out the best product. Did the Twins do that this offseason? I question that...what I have never understood is how a team can cut payroll like the Twins did, have a predictably bad year, see attendance go down and then somehow seem surprised. I wonder if the Twins would have spent that extra money and remained competitive in a very, very vulnerable division if the organization would have made the money back with increased attendance, more concession sales and more paraphernalia sales. It seems highly likely to me. Of course there is no guarantee that the team would have been able to sign a couple of pitchers that would have made enough difference. Obviously they felt that they could not do so. Or, is this payroll cutting just a sign of things to come as this team is gutted? It remains to be seen but I think this season has cast a dark shadow over the prospects of the Twins being willing to make the signings necessary to compete even in this weaker division.

Loosey
07-13-2012, 09:25 AM
Here is my beef with the Twins cutting payroll and then eventually making claims that payroll has to be cut because of declining attendance: Terry Ryan and the Pohlads are businessmen and should have a basic understanding of business. If they think of the payroll and players as investments instead of an expense they would be more willing to "invest" in player salaries. But instead they seem to chase their tails and reduce payroll when the money coming in slows down. The way to bring back the revenue streams is to invest in good players. Just my thought on this.

nokomismod
07-13-2012, 10:28 AM
I don't think there is any chance Baker could contribute next year. If he likes it here (the city and Twins mgmt) they could offer up a creative 4 year deal that makes next year a cheap rehab type of year for him.
I would like to see them try to get a multi year affordable contract for Burton. How do we get any meaningful innings out of the money we have to pay Blackburn. Could he be a 7th inning type of guy? I know that's an expensive for a role like that, but at least we are getting something out of him. Maybe he can throw harder and somehow be better if he's only going one or two innings every other day?

Highabove
07-13-2012, 02:05 PM
In this Market, the Fans never seem to hear both sides of the payroll issue. Below is one example.

In 2009, their last year at the Dome, the Twins realized a very large payday.

Their revenue came in at 162 million. The Twins starting payroll was 65+ million. This amount was far below the 50% of revenue which the Twins have sold us for years.

The Twins operating income came in at 25 million, which was the 9th highest in Baseball.

Twins fans are constantly reminded about how the Twins overpayed the payroll last year.

Did we ever hear about the large payroll under payment in 2009? As a result, the Twins earned almost as much in the last year at the Dome as they did during the first year at Target Field.


The Business Of Baseball - Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/33/baseball-valuations-10_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Income.html)

2009 Baseball Team Payrolls - Total and Average Salaries for Major League Baseball Players (http://baseball.about.com/od/newsrumors/a/09teamsalaries.htm)