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View Full Version : Liriano .... 4 more starts???



greengoblinrulz
07-06-2012, 10:27 PM
8 relatively solid starts now for Frankie since being reinstated.
49.2 IP 30h 15er 2.72ERA 52k 24bb.....99.25pitches per start
He can only screw up a deal 4 more times.....
If he woulda started the season like this, would he have gotten an extension???

Mchans24
07-06-2012, 11:13 PM
Without a doubt. Problem is, we all expect him to melt down again at some point. They are trying to trade him, Gardy doing nothing but praising him on a night he walked six guys!!

minn55441
07-06-2012, 11:37 PM
Will it be a package deal? The team that Takes Liriano also has to take Drew? they are a pitching team now.

greengoblinrulz
07-07-2012, 12:00 AM
Will it be a package deal? The team that Takes Liriano also has to take Drew? they are a pitching team now.
without Frankie, Butera is again a AAA player.....but who will Gardy appoint to Drew to be his defensive savior after the deal??? My guess for personal catcher will be Blackburn

jokin
07-07-2012, 12:22 AM
without Frankie, Butera is again a AAA player.....but who will Gardy appoint to Drew to be his defensive savior after the deal??? My guess for personal catcher will be Blackburn

Great! Can we send him down to Roc to join Blackie tomorrow?

spideyo
07-07-2012, 11:32 AM
Hey, if Butera could get Blackburn to pitch like a Major League starter on a consistent basis, I'll take that!

On another Liriano note, anybody else read MLB.com's recap of the game? "It's certainly not a stretch to say Francisco Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since rejoining the Twins' rotation on May 30 after a stint in the bullpen." It goes on to say that he has been dominating, and pitching like an ace.

I'll give you that he's pitching much better, but one of the best pitchers in baseball? I don't think so. I would expect one of the best pitchers in baseball to make it through the 7th inning more than once in 8 games. Also, when I think "best pitcher in baseball" I think of guys who keep the bases clear, not guys who are really good at keeping the two guys they walked back to back from scoring.

But hey, if the excessive praise jacks up his trade value, then I suppose let's just keep piling it on.

Boom Boom
07-07-2012, 11:43 AM
I was ready to give up on Liriano and trade him for anything... but given the dearth of pitching in the Twins org., I'd seriously consider offering Liriano a 2 year + option deal right now while the price may be cheaper.

If he continues pitching well, it's a great move. And if he does the Jekyll and Hyde routine again, you can try trading him later.

Thrylos
07-07-2012, 11:45 AM
Hey, if Butera could get Blackburn to pitch like a Major League starter on a consistent basis, I'll take that!

On another Liriano note, anybody else read MLB.com's recap of the game? "It's certainly not a stretch to say Francisco Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since rejoining the Twins' rotation on May 30 after a stint in the bullpen." It goes on to say that he has been dominating, and pitching like an ace.

I'll give you that he's pitching much better, but one of the best pitchers in baseball? I don't think so. I would expect one of the best pitchers in baseball to make it through the 7th inning more than once in 8 games. Also, when I think "best pitcher in baseball" I think of guys who keep the bases clear, not guys who are really good at keeping the two guys they walked back to back from scoring.

But hey, if the excessive praise jacks up his trade value, then I suppose let's just keep piling it on.


Do not confuse Liriano's results (1.179 WHIP, .178 OBA, 3.38 ERA, 8.4 K/9 his last 6 starts) with when GardynAndy decide to take him out of the game. Manager's choice. Yes he has been pitching like an ace., but Gardy has been taking him out of the game.

CTS
07-07-2012, 01:15 PM
Can anyone explain why this page: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins shows Liriano as the team leader in ERA? Surely Diamond has enough innings to qualify?

IdahoPilgrim
07-07-2012, 01:28 PM
Can anyone explain why this page: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins shows Liriano as the team leader in ERA? Surely Diamond has enough innings to qualify?

No, he doesn't. To qualify you have to have one inning pitched per game the team as played. That means right now you need 83 innings. Liriano is the only one on staff who has that (83.1). Diamond has only 79. He'll probably qualify, though, after his next start.

ancestral
07-07-2012, 01:32 PM
Teams would want Liriano not as a starter (this year) but as a middle-relief/situational pitcher. The fact that he is left-handed is perhaps the biggest reason to trade for him. Not sure where he ranks in the league this year, but lefties are batting .154 against Liriano.

USAFChief
07-07-2012, 01:51 PM
Teams would want Liriano not as a starter (this year) but as a middle-relief/situational pitcher. The fact that he is left-handed is perhaps the biggest reason to trade for him. Not sure where he ranks in the league this year, but lefties are batting .154 against Liriano.

Huh?

Get the extension done, TR. Get the extension done.

TheLeviathan
07-07-2012, 03:21 PM
Apparently ERAs near 5 constitute ace material. Liriano has a strange power to inspire delusion.

USAFChief
07-07-2012, 03:27 PM
Apparently ERAs near 5 constitute ace material. Liriano has a strange power to inspire delusion.

A year from now you (and a lot of folks) will be bemoaning the Twins lack of front line starting pitching, while simultaneously shaking your head in wonderment at how good Liriano has been for the (insert team name here).

Much like you've had to back off from your "there is no reason to let Plouffe play, ever, anywhere, he can't hit or field" take from a couple months ago.

greengoblinrulz
07-07-2012, 07:15 PM
A year from now you (and a lot of folks) will be bemoaning the Twins lack of front line starting pitching, while simultaneously shaking your head in wonderment at how good Liriano has been for the (insert team name here).

Much like you've had to back off from your "there is no reason to let Plouffe play, ever, anywhere, he can't hit or field" take from a couple months ago.

there were just enough of us yelling for Plouffe to get everyday ABs to show what he can do.
There is NO way I give Liriano even a 1yr extension right now....trade him. HOWEVER, after trading him....nothing wrong with looking at him in FA if the money is right.

TheLeviathan
07-07-2012, 07:34 PM
A year from now you (and a lot of folks) will be bemoaning the Twins lack of front line starting pitching, while simultaneously shaking your head in wonderment at how good Liriano has been for the (insert team name here).

Much like you've had to back off from your "there is no reason to let Plouffe play, ever, anywhere, he can't hit or field" take from a couple months ago.

Are you unable to constitute a fair argument ever? I didn't want him getting regular ABs at second and still don't. Never had an issue with third.

I won't ever go back and question letting Liriano go. He's garbage. By the way ~ five ERA is frontline material eh? One of the ten worst starters in all of baseball by virtually every stat for two of the last three years is "frontline"?

My god. With the ability to delude people about crappy performance Frankie missed his calling as an infomercial pitchman.

USAFChief
07-07-2012, 08:20 PM
Are you unable to constitute a fair argument ever? I didn't want him getting regular ABs at second and still don't. Never had an issue with third.

I won't ever go back and question letting Liriano go. He's garbage. By the way ~ five ERA is frontline material eh? One of the ten worst starters in all of baseball by virtually every stat for two of the last three years is "frontline"?

My god. With the ability to delude people about crappy performance Frankie missed his calling as an infomercial pitchman.

1. Fair Argument? Perhaps I'm mistaken...are you a different Leviathan? Not the one that spent a month ridiculing anyone on BYTO who suggested Plouffe should be given a full time shot, somewhere?

You're embarrassing yourself to anyone who knows the backstory.

2. If you think Liriano is always going to be a "five ERA pitcher" or is even right now a "five ERA pitcher" then you're right. I don't. I think gambling on him is a better bet than anything they're likely to get for similar money.

We'll see. I'll be here to admit I was wrong, if I indeed was wrong. Somehow I doubt you'll reciprocate.

TheLeviathan
07-07-2012, 08:34 PM
Backstory is easy: you wanted him at second base because you didn't think he could hit enough for RF. I wanted nothingnothing to do with that. I still wouldn't. But he has been an offensive marvel. I hope it continues and I'm glad a spot that made sense for him opened up so we could see this. Never once did I have an issue with him playing third just had low expectations. So far my expectations were wrong. Hope it stays that way just like Perkins, Span, and others. That's the true, fair version. Not your warped nonsense.

But its cute that less that 10 starts are enough to justify 20 million. Certainly these last ten tell us way more than last year, the start of this year, and all of 2009. Frontline indeed.

IdahoPilgrim
07-07-2012, 08:59 PM
Is there a chance we could let Liriano go and, next year, when he has his head together, makes us look foolish? Yes - that is a real risk.

There is also a real risk that, if we give him an extension, he ends up going back into a funk, and people are griping next year about how foolish it was for Ryan not to move him when he had some/any value.

I guess it all comes down to which risk you think is greater. For myself, I have to look at his track record, and I'm more worried about the second choice than the first.

TheLeviathan
07-07-2012, 09:03 PM
I guess it all comes down to which risk you think is greater. For myself, I have to look at his track record, and I'm more worried about the second choice than the first.

Any other conclusion is based on hope and a denial of the statistical preponderance of evidence. It isnt impossible for him to be great again but his track record says that is the sucker bet at this point.

jm3319
07-07-2012, 09:11 PM
I feel like everyone has this same conversation every year. "Wow, look at Frankie, he has the potential to be the ace of this staff. lock him up." Yet for every dominant start he easily has 2 crappy ones, he just bunches them together. I say trade him and hope for the best. If there's anything Frankie has shown us is that he is consistently inconsistent. If the Twins had any depth at starting pitching he'd have been gone years ago.

glunn
07-08-2012, 12:16 AM
Is there a chance we could let Liriano go and, next year, when he has his head together, makes us look foolish? Yes - that is a real risk.

There is also a real risk that, if we give him an extension, he ends up going back into a funk, and people are griping next year about how foolish it was for Ryan not to move him when he had some/any value.

I guess it all comes down to which risk you think is greater. For myself, I have to look at his track record, and I'm more worried about the second choice than the first.

It seems to me that despite all of the debate, almost everyone agrees that Liriano might be very bad going forward, or he might be very good going forward. Liriano's track record suggests that he is likely to be bad overall, but no one can predict the future.

What is undeniable is that when Liriano is in the zone, he can pitch like an ace. It also seems undeniable that aces are rare, and very valuable to teams that can make the postseason. And the Twins don't have many potential aces in the farm system.

I agree with sbknudson that this is a matter of risk, but I hope that the Twins make some offer based on risk assessment.

For example, if the best guess is that there is a 25% chance of Liriano being worth $36 million over 3 years and a 75% chance of him being worth $14 million, then why not make an offer of $19.5 million per year (i.e. $36 million + $14 million + $14 million + $14 million divided by 4). We can argue about the percentage chances of each outcome or the dollar amounts, but it seems to me that there is a lot of value in the possibility of Liriano maturing and becoming able to consistently realize his potential.

I agree with Chief that the offer should be made soon. If Liriano stays hot (and perhaps even improves) for the rest of this season, then he might get more than $36 million on the open market. But because he and his agent realize that the risk runs both ways, it seems possible that 3 years at something less than $20 million might be possible.

jm3319
07-08-2012, 11:53 AM
It seems to me that despite all of the debate, almost everyone agrees that Liriano might be very bad going forward, or he might be very good going forward. Liriano's track record suggests that he is likely to be bad overall, but no one can predict the future.

What is undeniable is that when Liriano is in the zone, he can pitch like an ace. It also seems undeniable that aces are rare, and very valuable to teams that can make the postseason. And the Twins don't have many potential aces in the farm system.

I agree with sbknudson that this is a matter of risk, but I hope that the Twins make some offer based on risk assessment.

For example, if the best guess is that there is a 25% chance of Liriano being worth $36 million over 3 years and a 75% chance of him being worth $14 million, then why not make an offer of $19.5 million per year (i.e. $36 million + $14 million + $14 million + $14 million divided by 4). We can argue about the percentage chances of each outcome or the dollar amounts, but it seems to me that there is a lot of value in the possibility of Liriano maturing and becoming able to consistently realize his potential.

I agree with Chief that the offer should be made soon. If Liriano stays hot (and perhaps even improves) for the rest of this season, then he might get more than $36 million on the open market. But because he and his agent realize that the risk runs both ways, it seems possible that 3 years at something less than $20 million might be possible.


$19.5 million a YEAR? Excuse my language, but you're F#$&ing crazy. We're talking about a guy whose ERA over his last 45 starts is over 5.00 dating back to last season. His lowest season ERA is 2.16 but that was before his surgery. Since then, it's 3.62. Every other season has been 4+. How many "Aces" have ERA's over 4? Maybe 19.5 M over 2 seasons. Yes he shows flashes of figuring things out. His ERA is 2.74 over his last 8 starts, but that's 8 starts not a whole season. Can you imagine if the Twins signed him for $19.5M a year and his ERA was 5 again? People hate the Mauer contract, but at least Mauer is good and consistent (when healthy), but paying frankie $19.5M for 10 good starts a year is insane.

ashburyjohn
07-08-2012, 02:19 PM
$19.5 million a YEAR?

Maybe glunn will speak up, but if you re-read the longest paragraph it looks like "per year" was a typo (brain cramp) as the rest of the analysis was for a 3 year contract.

jokin
07-08-2012, 02:24 PM
If Liriano stays hot (and perhaps even improves) for the rest of this season, then he might get more than $36 million on the open market. But because he and his agent realize that the risk runs both ways, it seems possible that 3 years at something less than $20 million might be possible.

Not to speak for Glunn, but this is the math from his post that makes the most sense. With the glut of SPs in the FA market off-season, I've got to think Liriano's actual number will come in closer to the latter than the former.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-08-2012, 03:08 PM
Offer him a 2 year/16-17 mil contract (can go up to 9 mil a year with 200 IP/incentives) with a 10 mil team option (1 mil buy out). If he declines trade him for whatever you can get.

Giving him a 1 year 12.5 million dollar deal is bad for a few reasons:
1. You are overpaying him by at least 3-4 million. The Twins don't have the luxury at this point to be over paying for players.
2. It doesn't solve your long term pitching issues. If Liriano pitches like a stud in 2013 then they end up losing him at the end of 2013 and there is another hole in the rotation moving forward. You need to have him around for at least 2 years to make it worthwhile (since the Twins look to have a better shot to win in 2014 then 2013)

Also it should also be noted that Liriano wouldn't need to pitch like an "ace" to make the contract worthwhile. If you are giving him 8-9 million a year and he gives you 190-200 IP with around a 4.00 ERA he is defiantly worth that money. (See Pavano's value in 2010/2011)

glunn
07-09-2012, 01:44 AM
Maybe glunn will speak up, but if you re-read the longest paragraph it looks like "per year" was a typo (brain cramp) as the rest of the analysis was for a 3 year contract.

My error -- I meant $19.5 million over 3 years. Sorry for the goof up.

glunn
07-09-2012, 01:47 AM
Offer him a 2 year/16-17 mil contract (can go up to 9 mil a year with 200 IP/incentives) with a 10 mil team option (1 mil buy out). If he declines trade him for whatever you can get.

Giving him a 1 year 12.5 million dollar deal is bad for a few reasons:
1. You are overpaying him by at least 3-4 million. The Twins don't have the luxury at this point to be over paying for players.
2. It doesn't solve your long term pitching issues. If Liriano pitches like a stud in 2013 then they end up losing him at the end of 2013 and there is another hole in the rotation moving forward. You need to have him around for at least 2 years to make it worthwhile (since the Twins look to have a better shot to win in 2014 then 2013)

Also it should also be noted that Liriano wouldn't need to pitch like an "ace" to make the contract worthwhile. If you are giving him 8-9 million a year and he gives you 190-200 IP with around a 4.00 ERA he is defiantly worth that money. (See Pavano's value in 2010/2011)

What you say makes a lot of sense, Dave. I would also be happy to see 3 years at a total of $19.5 million or so.

Brock Beauchamp
07-09-2012, 08:04 AM
Offer him a 2 year/16-17 mil contract (can go up to 9 mil a year with 200 IP/incentives) with a 10 mil team option (1 mil buy out). If he declines trade him for whatever you can get.

Giving him a 1 year 12.5 million dollar deal is bad for a few reasons:
1. You are overpaying him by at least 3-4 million. The Twins don't have the luxury at this point to be over paying for players.
2. It doesn't solve your long term pitching issues. If Liriano pitches like a stud in 2013 then they end up losing him at the end of 2013 and there is another hole in the rotation moving forward. You need to have him around for at least 2 years to make it worthwhile (since the Twins look to have a better shot to win in 2014 then 2013)

Also it should also be noted that Liriano wouldn't need to pitch like an "ace" to make the contract worthwhile. If you are giving him 8-9 million a year and he gives you 190-200 IP with around a 4.00 ERA he is defiantly worth that money. (See Pavano's value in 2010/2011)

This isn't a terrible idea. Liriano should be worth something around $8m a year even if he's just mediocre.

On the other hand, I wouldn't mind it if they traded him, either.

Rosterman
07-09-2012, 08:45 AM
Liriano is too expensive. $12 million required BY THE TWINS to keep him in 2013. Other teams can get him for less.

Hey, wait, sounds like David Ortiz all over again.

But the hard reality is that Liriano (unproven) probably would ratehr try the fre agent market. If the Twins offer him arbitration, he would have that to fall back on.

Better to trade him for something halfway decent, and THEN float a free agent offer to him, assuming his new team doesn't pick up the option. Then we find out how badly he wants to be a Twin.

It's a tough trade decision, because the new team will have the option to resign him, or offer him arbitration and get two draft choices. The Twins should be offered at least close to two draft picks for the guy.

CDog
07-09-2012, 09:59 AM
Liriano is too expensive. $12 million required BY THE TWINS to keep him in 2013. Other teams can get him for less.

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly sure the Twins can make him any offer they want. The $12+M is only to qualify for a compensation picks. They're still welcome to offer him $1M if they want. I think.

Brock Beauchamp
07-09-2012, 10:34 AM
I could be wrong, but I'm fairly sure the Twins can make him any offer they want. The $12+M is only to qualify for a compensation picks. They're still welcome to offer him $1M if they want. I think.

Yep. They can offer whatever they like, they just don't get the picks if he leaves.

jorgenswest
07-09-2012, 11:04 AM
The only way to sign Liriano and motivate him to give up his earned right to free agency is to overpay in years and dolllars. There are many reasonable contract proposals listed above. I don't see him accepting any of them. I would think it would take minimally a three year offer at 25-30 million. That may not be enough to motivate him to give up his free agent rights. I think the one year comp level offer is the better route. In order to keep a player and get them to give up their right to free agency, teams almost always overpay.

chopper0080
07-09-2012, 01:01 PM
The only way to sign Liriano and motivate him to give up his earned right to free agency is to overpay in years and dolllars. There are many reasonable contract proposals listed above. I don't see him accepting any of them. I would think it would take minimally a three year offer at 25-30 million. That may not be enough to motivate him to give up his free agent rights. I think the one year comp level offer is the better route. In order to keep a player and get them to give up their right to free agency, teams almost always overpay.

This is the main reason I believe the Twins have to trade him. Re-signing Liriano now is more than just paying him market value, it is about paying him enough to forgo exploring what he feels he is worth on the open market. If the Twins were to trade him, they could add a prospect and then wait to see what Liriano's market value turns out to be. If the market for him is shallow, they can always offer the 9 or 10 million per year that most would like to sign him more. If not, they can explore other options knowing they at least got some value for him leaving. If the Twins keep him this year, they are stuck. Either he is successful and signs a big contract with another team, or he regresses again and they didn't get anything for him when his value was at it's highest.

chopper0080
07-09-2012, 01:06 PM
Offer him a 2 year/16-17 mil contract (can go up to 9 mil a year with 200 IP/incentives) with a 10 mil team option (1 mil buy out). If he declines trade him for whatever you can get.

Giving him a 1 year 12.5 million dollar deal is bad for a few reasons:
1. You are overpaying him by at least 3-4 million. The Twins don't have the luxury at this point to be over paying for players.
2. It doesn't solve your long term pitching issues. If Liriano pitches like a stud in 2013 then they end up losing him at the end of 2013 and there is another hole in the rotation moving forward. You need to have him around for at least 2 years to make it worthwhile (since the Twins look to have a better shot to win in 2014 then 2013)

Also it should also be noted that Liriano wouldn't need to pitch like an "ace" to make the contract worthwhile. If you are giving him 8-9 million a year and he gives you 190-200 IP with around a 4.00 ERA he is defiantly worth that money. (See Pavano's value in 2010/2011)

My question is why would Liriano take a deal like this when he is in the prime of his career. He will hold out for a long term deal which I would say would probably be 3 years WITH an option or 4 to 5 years without. Make no mistake about it, Liriano is looking to sign the biggest deal of his career while he is still young. This is pretty much it for him. When he hits the market, if he continues his current production, he will probably command 13 - 15 million per year for 3-5 years.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
07-09-2012, 02:44 PM
If you people want to stick with the no talent scrubs that our AAA affiliate keeps pumping out, then by all means trade Liriano. The Twins need to lock him up for 3 years while he's cheap. He will keep improving his stats and it would be a shame to miss out on an ace or at least a good #2 starter.

TheLeviathan
07-09-2012, 02:50 PM
If you people want to stick with the no talent scrubs that our AAA affiliate keeps pumping out, then by all means trade Liriano. The Twins need to lock him up for 3 years while he's cheap. He will keep improving his stats and it would be a shame to miss out on an ace or at least a good #2 starter.

Well, that much is true. Hard for him to get much worse than he has been for 2.5 of the last 3.5 seasons - nowhere to go but up, even if slightly!

Have you looked at Liriano's stats though? He's been nothing close to an ace. Even in 2010 you could argue his peripheral stats were ace-like, but many of his other stats were not.

I can understand the argument that says we should a purely incentivized contract at him. I can even understand tossing him a one year 12.5M in hopes of a pick and because we have a bunch of money coming off next year. But guaranteeing this roller coaster three years and 20+? No logical defense for that. Pure irrational hope and nothing more.

nicksaviking
07-09-2012, 03:08 PM
Well if resigning him is a legit option, why not engage him in extension talks now just to see where the team and the pitcher stand? At the very least it will show other teams that the Twins (a. still value Liriano, and (b. believe that his injuries/inconsistancies are behind him. If other clubs see that the Twins still want him, it may sway the teams that think the Twins are simply trying to dump him in return for next-to-nothing.

It would also be helpful to find out through extension talks if Liriano still wants to be here, and it may give the Twins a better idea of what he and his agent think they will get on the free agent market which will determine if he will or will not accept arbitration. The Phillies and Brewers did this to better gauge the feasability of keeping Grienke and Hamels. Both are signifcanly better pitchers, but now both clubs have a better understanding of where the gap will be when free agency hits when the option of a trade is long gone.

Musk21
07-09-2012, 03:09 PM
Well, that much is true. Hard for him to get much worse than he has been for 2.5 of the last 3.5 seasons - nowhere to go but up, even if slightly!

Have you looked at Liriano's stats though? He's been nothing close to an ace. Even in 2010 you could argue his peripheral stats were ace-like, but many of his other stats were not.

I can understand the argument that says we should a purely incentivized contract at him. I can even understand tossing him a one year 12.5M in hopes of a pick and because we have a bunch of money coming off next year. But guaranteeing this roller coaster three years and 20+? No logical defense for that. Pure irrational hope and nothing more.

I've gotta wholeheartedly agree with this. At what point is he no longer considered a "potential ace?" If you include this year's stats (which by the way are almost exactly in line with his numbers last year), he's been pretty terrible 3 out of the last 4 years.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
07-09-2012, 09:34 PM
Well, that much is true. Hard for him to get much worse than he has been for 2.5 of the last 3.5 seasons - nowhere to go but up, even if slightly!

Have you looked at Liriano's stats though? He's been nothing close to an ace. Even in 2010 you could argue his peripheral stats were ace-like, but many of his other stats were not.

I can understand the argument that says we should a purely incentivized contract at him. I can even understand tossing him a one year 12.5M in hopes of a pick and because we have a bunch of money coming off next year. But guaranteeing this roller coaster three years and 20+? No logical defense for that. Pure irrational hope and nothing more.

He has the best stuff of anyone on this roster and can actually strike out batters. I'll take that over a pitch to contact pitcher. What else should we spend money on? We aren't going to get any free agents unless they're cheap veterans. A three year deal will not kill a rebuilding process or even hamper it. There is a chance that he overperforms and provides a good presence in the rotation. No reason to sell low either. We know how that works out for the Twins.

TheLeviathan
07-09-2012, 11:03 PM
He has the best stuff of anyone on this roster and can actually strike out batters. I'll take that over a pitch to contact pitcher. What else should we spend money on? We aren't going to get any free agents unless they're cheap veterans. A three year deal will not kill a rebuilding process or even hamper it. There is a chance that he overperforms and provides a good presence in the rotation. No reason to sell low either. We know how that works out for the Twins.

There is a FAR greater chance we just wasted 20 million. Just because you have the money doesn't mean you toss it at someone who is statistically a bad bet. If you haven't noticed, all the Liriano cheerleaders avoid posting statistics. The reason being? For roughly 2.5 of the last 3.5 seasons he's been one of the worst starters in all of baseball by most any statistical measure.

You're welcome to hope he outperforms - just don't think you have much reason for doing so. Then your argument is more about what the Twins don't have rather than what Liriano actually is.

striker_86
07-09-2012, 11:07 PM
There is a FAR greater chance we just wasted 20 million. Just because you have the money doesn't mean you toss it at someone who is statistically a bad bet. If you haven't noticed, all the Liriano cheerleaders avoid posting statistics. The reason being? For roughly 2.5 of the last 3.5 seasons he's been one of the worst starters in all of baseball by most any statistical measure.

You're welcome to hope he outperforms - just don't think you have much reason for doing so. Then your argument is more about what the Twins don't have rather than what Liriano actually is.

Get rid of him, for whatever it takes. We've waited long enough, dump him and spend some money in the offseason on a starter who has decent stuff and his head on straight.

glunn
07-10-2012, 12:50 AM
Get rid of him, for whatever it takes. We've waited long enough, dump him and spend some money in the offseason on a starter who has decent stuff and his head on straight.

If there are no good offers before the trade deadline, why not keep him for the rest of this season and see what he does. If he does very well, then a one year offer might make some sense. And if all that you can get for him is mediocre prospects, why not just forgo the mediocre prospects and keep him for the rest of this year? It seems to me that the Twins already have an abundance of mediocre prospects.

Your hypothetical "starter who has decent stuff and his head on straight" won't come cheap and will never have the kind of ability necessary to win in the postseason. I believe that Liriano has the ability. I also concede that the chances are at least 75% that Liriano will not be able to realize his potential. The odds of success seem low here, but the level of potential success if all goes well seems very high. So I would be reluctant to trade him for anything less than at least one prospect who has a very high upside.

Brock Beauchamp
07-10-2012, 07:25 AM
If there are no good offers before the trade deadline, why not keep him for the rest of this season and see what he does. If he does very well, then a one year offer might make some sense. And if all that you can get for him is mediocre prospects, why not just forgo the mediocre prospects and keep him for the rest of this year? It seems to me that the Twins already have an abundance of mediocre prospects.

Your hypothetical "starter who has decent stuff and his head on straight" won't come cheap and will never have the kind of ability necessary to win in the postseason. I believe that Liriano has the ability. I also concede that the chances are at least 75% that Liriano will not be able to realize his potential. The odds of success seem low here, but the level of potential success if all goes well seems very high. So I would be reluctant to trade him for anything less than at least one prospect who has a very high upside.


This would probably be my first choice as well. If he puts up very good numbers for the rest of the season, he's worth a $12.5m offer for the pick, mainly because he wouldn't take it and might get a 3/$30m deal from somebody else.

But trading him this month should obviously be a priority.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
07-10-2012, 09:35 AM
You don't need stats to show whether or not he can pitch. To a degree yes, but if you watch him you know he can be something special and he will be. There is a reason Liriano has gotten away with those stats and a player like Cole Devries couldn't. And the reason isn't because Gardy loves him, but because he has a high ceiling. It's worth the gamble because the payroll isn't going to be an issue while rebuilding. There are so many Twins fans that complain about all of the pitch to contact pitchers and when we finally have one that can fan batters, they want to send him on the first flight out. I just think we should be even MORE patient in this case to finally be rewarded.

TheLeviathan
07-10-2012, 11:26 AM
You don't need stats to show whether or not he can pitch. To a degree yes, but if you watch him you know he can be something special and he will be..

Like I said - pure hope. This is borderline some kind of religious faith. Reality is that he hasn't even been average. He's been a poor to awful pitcher for most of the last 3+ seasons.

I completely relate to the frustration of not having more top-end arms. But pretending Liriano is a top-end arm is just delusion. You're making him into something he's not because the team has no top-end pitching. If we're going to sink close to 10M+ into a pitcher, let's at least shoot for a guy whose performance actually reflects a top-end pitcher. It just boggles my mind that people hang on to this delusion about Liriano when the stats/reality say he hasn't even been as good as Carl Pavano over the last three years. You could argue, at best, that they're a wash. If someone was suggesting the same things in this thread about Carl Pavano we'd call them a lunatic - yet that's exactly what we're doing. And it's out of nothing more than blind hope.

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 12:08 PM
Like I said - pure hope. This is borderline some kind of religious faith. Reality is that he hasn't even been average. He's been a poor to awful pitcher for most of the last 3+ seasons.

I completely relate to the frustration of not having more top-end arms. But pretending Liriano is a top-end arm is just delusion. You're making him into something he's not because the team has no top-end pitching. If we're going to sink close to 10M+ into a pitcher, let's at least shoot for a guy whose performance actually reflects a top-end pitcher. It just boggles my mind that people hang on to this delusion about Liriano when the stats/reality say he hasn't even been as good as Carl Pavano over the last three years. You could argue, at best, that they're a wash. If someone was suggesting the same things in this thread about Carl Pavano we'd call them a lunatic - yet that's exactly what we're doing. And it's out of nothing more than blind hope.

I don't think he got lucky in 2006 and 2010, and the numbers he put up both years were pretty good. I wouldn't call it blind hope... There's a legitimate reason for hope. I agree that in the mean time he's been absolutely terrible and that 12.5M is a pretty signficant gamble for a team that needs 2 or 3 starters and has 21M to spend, as such, I'd trade him if you can get something decent for him... though like others said, if all you have is a Rene Tosoni type prospect, then you may as well hold on to the guy and see if he pitches himself into a multi-year contract where you can offer him arb and he rejects it.

TheLeviathan
07-10-2012, 12:13 PM
I don't think he got lucky in 2006 and 2010.

You realize due to a major injury that only one of these two counts as a valid season? I've always given him credit for 2010. When I say 2.5 of the last 3.5 have been awful...the one that wasn't was 2010. The rest is awful.

StormJH1
07-10-2012, 01:09 PM
He's been largely awful, and he's essentially NEVER been good at the end of the year (either due to injury, or in the case of 2010 because he just wasn't any good). It's already mid-July, so the chance to move him as a rental might be soon or never. If we can get any type of B-level prospect for him, you have to think about it. I know we are desperate for SP's, but we had Liriano this year, and he's as big a reason as anyone that we're in the hole we're in.

diehardtwinsfan
07-10-2012, 01:31 PM
You realize due to a major injury that only one of these two counts as a valid season?

huh? So because he had Tommy John, his 2006 season doesn't count? Apparently someone forgot to expunge the 121 innings, 144k, the 2.61 ERA, and the 12-3 record.

Look, I'm not on the defender or attacker bandwagon. But let's not pretend that there isn't a mighty nice ceiling. I agree with you in that the odds of him hitting that ceiling are not too good and that the 12.5M would be better off spent elsewhere. But I do think that if the Twins cannot get something decent for him at the deadline that they would be much better off seeing if he can ride this hot streak into Sept and parlaying that into a big enough deal that they can offer him arb...

Mauerzy4Prez
07-10-2012, 01:38 PM
The Twins don't have the 12.5M to give up in payroll next season for one player. Read the article by John Bonnes about Twins future payroll and the potential or more cuts. Basically Bonnes claims that with the current team they will go into next year around $78Million. Attendance isn't going anywhere but down, and the team will more than likely have to cut payroll again to compensate. Unless they do some major cuts, unfortunately it just does not look very good for being able to afford Frankie.

TheLeviathan
07-10-2012, 02:37 PM
So because he had Tommy John, his 2006 season doesn't count?

2006 doesn't count towards his future. He was a different pitcher. We can hope for 2010 again but 2006 is never coming back. I too look back fondly on what might have been, but it's done and buried. I don't even count 2008 for/against him because his numbers are very erratic. Some numbers are good, others not.

The problem with Frankie is that any extension 8M+ is bordering on taking up 8-10% of the payroll for a guy that has been awful more often than he's been good lately. If you want to toss him a contract with less than 3M in base salary and heavy incentives - fine. I have no problem paying him like an ace if he pitches like one. But guaranteeing him a significant chunk of the team payroll is a bad bet.

greengoblinrulz
07-13-2012, 11:08 PM
Now 3-3 in last 9 starts
57.2 IP 34h .171 BAA 18er 2.81 ERA 67k 25bb 1.023 WHIP..... only 2HRs allowed but drove in 7runs with those
Only given up runs in 10 of those 58 innings in 9 starts

USAFChief
07-13-2012, 11:25 PM
I still don't understand why some people are in such a rush to dump the best arm in the Twins system for little or nothing.

Top Gun
07-14-2012, 01:01 AM
How many SP do the Twins need? We already have 10 +!

Top Gun
07-14-2012, 01:03 AM
Zack Greinke turned in his fourth straight rough outing on Friday, allowing five runs on seven hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Pirates.

Greinke struck out six while walking two in the game. He was in line to pick up his third loss of the week until the Brewers rallied late to take him off the hook.

Shane Wahl
07-14-2012, 01:29 AM
Liriano is barbarically frustrating. Do we TRUST this two-month run? Or do we look at the up and down year-to-year performance as being more relevant. I guess that MAYBE I think MAYBE that the $12 million offer for ONE year is worth making for the Twins. If he accepts, and dominates, all is good. If he sucks, you sink it and deal with making whatever out of that $12 million. If he doesn't accept it (very possible), you get the draft picks. It might be a lucrative situation.

TheLeviathan
07-14-2012, 08:28 AM
Now 3-3 in last 9 starts
57.2 IP 34h .171 BAA 18er 2.81 ERA 67k 25bb 1.023 WHIP..... only 2HRs allowed but drove in 7runs with those
Only given up runs in 10 of those 58 innings in 9 starts

Can we play "in his previous" a bit further back? Apparently Liriano is a master of inspiring the Availability Heuristic.....

minn55441
07-14-2012, 10:09 AM
Did last night help or hurt his trade value? I really think it improved it for now. 15 strikeouts. He made many of the A's hitters look foolish. I have been on the Frankie roller coaster ride for too many years and I'm ready to get off. He has the best arm and the highest upside of any player on our team, yes and I mean player. He could be elite, one of the top 5 pitchers in the all of baseball and we don't have anyone else on the roster that can make that claim. He may turn into that consistent dominating starting pitcher after to moves to another team, but with his contract up there is no way we can give him $12 million. Make the trade while the demand for him is high. There has to be at least one team out there, that believes that they can make the changes in Frankie and turn him into the ace that we can all see glimpses of.

Oxtung
07-14-2012, 12:28 PM
I still don't understand why some people are in such a rush to dump the best arm in the Twins system for little or nothing.

While Liriano might have the "best arm" in the system he has been one of the 10 worst starting pitchers in baseball over the last 5 years. Interestingly enough so are Blackburn and Pavano. The only Twins starter who has been decent over that time frame is Baker.

notoriousgod71
07-14-2012, 01:58 PM
How many SP do the Twins need? We already have 10 +!

10=0 in this case.

Thrylos
07-14-2012, 02:15 PM
While Liriano might have the "best arm" in the system he has been one of the 10 worst starting pitchers in baseball over the last 5 years. Interestingly enough so are Blackburn and Pavano.

How do you measure that? W-L record? ERA?


The only Twins starter who has been decent over that time frame is Baker.

Last five years time frame?
You are forgetting Slowey.

twinswon1991
07-14-2012, 03:22 PM
While Liriano might have the "best arm" in the system he has been one of the 10 worst starting pitchers in baseball over the last 5 years. Interestingly enough so are Blackburn and Pavano. The only Twins starter who has been decent over that time frame is Baker.

There is no way Liriano has been one of the worst 5 SP in MLB over the last 5 years. I agree Blacky probably has been the worst over that timeframe and Pavano may be top 5. If not for their contracts and the clueless Twins front office they both would be unemployed. I can't imagine Liriano has been worse than those 2, Livan, Drabek, Zito (close), Jon Sanchez, Cook, Marquis off the top of my head.

twinswon1991
07-14-2012, 03:26 PM
10=0 in this case.

Exactly, that is the MAJOR problem with this organization and cannot be fixed overnight or in one offseason for that matter.

TheLeviathan
07-14-2012, 03:48 PM
There is no way Liriano has been one of the worst 5 SP in MLB over the last 5 Years.

I dont know about the last five years, but you can pretty much pick your stat in 2009 and 2011
and he's one of the worst in baseball. Hell even Blacky had a K/9 better or similar which is supposedly the main reason to resign him.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-14-2012, 05:02 PM
I more concerned about the Liriano we have seen lately after his demotion to the pen.

Last 9 starts:
57.1 IP
67k
25 BB (Would be nice to get this a bit lower)
34 H
2.83 ERA

That is not a fluke! The guy has potential to be great in this league!

TheLeviathan
07-14-2012, 07:40 PM
I wont hold against him that the majority of these were against baseball's worst offenses - he's been very good. But the "april doesnt count" bit is just a bit. They do count and Liriano's full season stats are still mediocre to subpar on the season. 2010 was far more impressive than this and how did he follow that?

Oxtung
07-17-2012, 01:56 AM
How do you measure that? W-L record? ERA?



Last five years time frame?
You are forgetting Slowey.

I was measuring by ERA or ERA+ .... there were no advanced metrics available to sort by. If you want to go by WHIP he was the 14th worst out of 86. I went with 5 years because that is when he came back from TJ surgery. I think much of the confusion is in my parameters so let me clarify that. Starting pitchers who have pitched 600+ innings in the last 5 years. Certainly there have been worse pitchers who have not lasted the whole 5 years but that doesn't really matter much. Those pitchers were rightfully let go. So when you look at pitchers who have pitched a significant portion of those years Liriano has been one of the worst. So I'll reiterate. Yes, at times he has great stuff but he can't seem to put the whole package together and be a good pitcher.

Here is my search:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/season_finder.cgi?type=p#ajax_result_table::21