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View Full Version : Article: What Would A Francisco Liriano Contract Extension Look Like?



John Bonnes
07-04-2012, 09:28 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?764-What-Would-A-Francisco-Liriano-Contract-Extension-Look-Like

John Bonnes
07-04-2012, 10:55 PM
One additional point i wish I would have added. This range also makes it difficult to know if Twins could/should offer Liriano a $12.5 one-year offer to get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. Liriano might take it, or he might not. If he does take it, it would mean paying a premium for a pitcher when the market is likely to be flooded, which would almost certainly be a mistake.

Nick Nelson
07-04-2012, 11:54 PM
I dunno. At this point I'd have no problem with offering the $12.5 M regardless of how the market sorts out. Clearly it can't be the only money they spend on pitching, but they'll have payroll beyond that and Liriano isn't a terrible gamble at that price.

gunnarthor
07-05-2012, 09:21 AM
I'm not sure what they should do with Liriano. I mean, he's been here so long, we shouldn't still be hoping that he gets it together but it sure is tempting. I wouldn't sign Liriano, but I wouldn't blame the FO if they decided to do it based on a handful of summer starts.

It's a pipe dream, but I really hope the Twins go after Sanchez this offseason.

jorgenswest
07-05-2012, 09:37 AM
Three options for Liriano with the future in mind.

1- Trade and get something.
2- Offer 12.4 million/1 year this winter and he either signs or we get two comp picks if he leaves hoping for multiple years
3- Sign to multiyear now

I am not sure our expectations can be that great in a trade. The other team will get 13-16 starts with the likelihood of losing him in the winter. They can not get compensation for losing him. Can we convince Brian Sabean that the Giants need Liriano back? If the Twins can get a deal for two middling prospects it would be similar to getting two comp picks.

As for the multiyear, we will probably have to overpay to convince Liriano to give up his free agent rights. John's suggested offer may not be enough. On the other hand, Doumit gave up his free agent rights when given the second year he couldn't get last winter. The money was fair. The Twins take on the injury risk. Maybe Liriano will do the same for three years if the money is fair.

The other option is do nothing. That can't happen. The Twins need to decide now if they will make a qualifying offer. If not, they need to trade him for whatever they can get.

jmlease1
07-05-2012, 09:47 AM
Liriano is a really hard call. You just don't know what his performance is going to be the next few years, and it seems likely it will be "inconsistent".

I don't like the idea of making the $12.3M arbitration tender, because I think Liriano would probably take it and no one else would come near those dollars for him. $12M for a guy who might be great, could completely stink, and will probably spend another year being really frustrating? Yikes. Especially as it probably takes the team out of the market for one of the top starters.

Right now, I think it's sign a 3-year deal or deal him. No higher than John's $27M package, but I'd hope we might get him in under that considering his injury & recent performance history. But I'm perfectly ok with dealing him too, and I think we might get a decent package for him. Moreover, if he gets moved, that frees up more money to go after a guy like Greinke, whom I think the Twins should go all out to get.

jorgenswest
07-05-2012, 09:48 AM
Lot's of teams will be after Sanchez. Why would he sign with the Twins? John Danks received a $65m/5 contract. Sanchez could get something similar.

While it is true that there are more potential free agent pitchers this winter, it will also be true that there will be more teams losing a pitcher and therefore more buyers. There market was flooded with closers last year. The most reliable closers received very good deals with a lot of buyers in the market. At the end of the market, a some fringe closers were signed at bargain deals. Sanchez will get a good offer and I can't imagine why he would choose the Twins.

nokomismod
07-05-2012, 10:51 AM
As a fan, I completely turned off from Liriano. I just hope we can deal him for something of value and call it over. I'd rather have consistent mediocrity than him at this point.
That being said, the other pitchers John mentioned aren't that consistent either.

USAFChief
07-05-2012, 11:21 AM
I still think 3/$24 gets it done, and balances the risk pretty fairly.

I also don't think offering Liriano $12.5 this winter is an option (the qualifying offer was $12.4 last winter and will most likely go up a little). If he reverts to sucking this year, Twins won't offer. If he continues to pitch like he has recently, he won't accept and the Twins will end up with one sandwich pick.

So to me, the only options are extend him or trade him. I would sign him. Where else do the Twins get a pitcher for that money with his stuff?

Nick Nelson
07-05-2012, 11:26 AM
I also don't think offering Liriano $12.5 this winter is an option (the qualifying offer was $12.4 last winter and will most likely go up a little). If he reverts to sucking this year, Twins won't offer. If he continues to pitch like he has recently, he won't accept and the Twins will end up with one sandwich pick.
... And they end up with an extra draft pick plus all that money to spend on another FA pitcher. I'm failing to see why this isn't an option. Seems like a pretty good one to me.

John Bonnes
07-05-2012, 11:31 AM
... And they end up with an extra draft pick plus all that money to spend on another FA pitcher. I'm failing to see why this isn't an option. Seems like a pretty good one to me.

I'm about 75% sure he would take that offer and run. I haven't crunched the numbers for next year's payroll, but I gotta think that handing $12.5M to Liriano leaves precious little for the other 3/5 of the rotation.

Shane Wahl
07-05-2012, 11:41 AM
I cannot figure out how anyone would want to sign Liriano to a multi-year deal. The Twins absolutely need to trade him away and let another organization deal with his inconsistency. It is troubling that $12.5 million is being talked about for someone who currently has a 5.30 ERA and a growing walk rate. Seriously???

IdahoPilgrim
07-05-2012, 12:10 PM
I just don't know how we can take the chance on him - his last outing you began to see flashes of "bad Frankie" returning.

Two months ago, most everyone said the best we could hope for was for Liriano to get hot, put together a good run of starts, generate some trade value, and then we could move him. Now that he's doing that, the thinking seems to be changing to keeping him, because maybe this time it's for real and for good. Isn't that the same logic that got us into trouble last year, when we had the poor run and everybody said we should sell before the trade deadline and get prospects, only for us to go on a good run and get fooled into thinking we could compete for the AL Central, so we made no moves, lost Cuddyer & Kubel, and got nothing in return? This is just the same thing. This latest run is fool's gold. Let's not be the ones who buy it ourselves.

Musk21
07-05-2012, 12:16 PM
I just don't know how we can take the chance on him - his last outing you began to see flashes of "bad Frankie" returning.

Two months ago, most everyone said the best we could hope for was for Liriano to get hot, put together a good run of starts, generate some trade value, and then we could move him. Now that he's doing that, the thinking seems to be changing to keeping him, because maybe this time it's for real and for good. Isn't that the same logic that got us into trouble last year, when we had the poor run and everybody said we should sell before the trade deadline and get prospects, only for us to go on a good run and get fooled into thinking we could compete for the AL Central, so we made no moves, lost Cuddyer & Kubel, and got nothing in return? This is just the same thing. This latest run is fool's gold. Let's not be the ones who buy it ourselves.

This. He's finally recouped some trade value, so it's time to get something decent for him and move on.

PopRiveter
07-05-2012, 12:17 PM
Liriano is the player an "incentive-laden deal" was created for. Offer him 2 years (or three if you absolutely have to) with a $6mil/yr base and incentives that add up to $4mil/yr on top of it. If he gets more elsewhere, let whoever signs him be the sucker. You just can't risk more than $6mil/yr on this big a question mark and expect to compete. He was a demotion candidate this year and last. If he goes the wrong way, he won't be in baseball 3 more years.

ashburyjohn
07-05-2012, 12:53 PM
No. Just, no.

drjim
07-05-2012, 04:35 PM
Hope he has a good outing against the Rangers, trade him over the all star break for the best package you can get, and never, ever look back.

I would never trust him with a three year deal.

Jack Torse
07-05-2012, 05:46 PM
If the Twins resign Liriano to any sort of contract extension I will eat the chair you were sitting on to type this piece.

notoriousgod71
07-05-2012, 06:07 PM
... And they end up with an extra draft pick plus all that money to spend on another FA pitcher. I'm failing to see why this isn't an option. Seems like a pretty good one to me.

Based off post 1991 history I'm very much convinced that Liriano would be better than any FA pitcher we might sign.

snepp
07-05-2012, 06:13 PM
Trivia time, who is the best free agent pitcher they've signed since 1991?


It isn't Bob Tewksbury is it?

diehardtwinsfan
07-05-2012, 06:44 PM
Trivia time, who is the best free agent pitcher they've signed since 1991?


It isn't Bob Tewksbury is it?

Kenny Rogers and John Smiley weren't terrible if memory serves me right, but I'm too lazy to look it up.

diehardtwinsfan
07-05-2012, 06:44 PM
Oh, and to answer the original question. A Liriano extension would look a lot like Pandora's box.

snepp
07-05-2012, 06:46 PM
Kenny Rogers and John Smiley weren't terrible if memory serves me right, but I'm too lazy to look it up.

I thought Smiley originally, but he came in a trade.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
07-05-2012, 07:19 PM
The extension is extremely risky and it could see everyone complaining about it if it doesn't work. I say arbitration is a great choice. If you go with the 12.5 it's either a one year deal or a draft pick. Win-win. I'd be hesitant of a trade because there's a good chance we end up with nothing. Who would trade anything valuable for half a year of Liriano?

snepp
07-05-2012, 07:22 PM
I don't think going 12.5 for Liriano, even if it is only for one year, could be considered a win.

USAFChief
07-05-2012, 07:57 PM
I don't think going 12.5 for Liriano, even if it is only for one year, could be considered a win.

Yeah, and if he accepts that eats pretty deeply into what's available for other FAs. In my mind, it's either sign him now, or trade him before the deadline.

TheLeviathan
07-05-2012, 08:05 PM
I think the only proper answer to this question is "A bad idea."

Bye bye on July 31st Frankie, I'll be happy no matter the return.

East Coast Twin
07-06-2012, 06:12 AM
I'm about 75% sure he would take that offer and run. I haven't crunched the numbers for next year's payroll, but I gotta think that handing $12.5M to Liriano leaves precious little for the other 3/5 of the rotation.

A quick number crunching: the Twins have contracts worth $68.5M for eight players (plus Nishioka) in 2013. Add four arbitration eligible players (ignoring Casilla) and another ten or so at league minimum, and that brings the total to an estimated $77-78M. What does that leave for free agents, $20M?

Like you said, if you spend $12.5M on Liriano what do you do about the rest of the rotation?

chopper0080
07-06-2012, 10:45 AM
Shanewahl, Nick Nelson, sbknudson, and Musk21 have it right. Make a trade now that Liriano's value is high, and get something in return. If he makes it to the open market the TWins can always pursue him at that point. If the market was depleted of starting pitching talent then I could see trying to extend him, but it is flush and the Twins would be doing themselves a disservice by not trading him. Potential is just that, potential. Liriano may have it, but his track record shows it is a pipe dream.

I alos think Anibal Sanchez would be a great signing, but I wonder if he would bite on a Twins offer. I would guess he will command around 13mil on the open market.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-06-2012, 02:18 PM
Offer him 2 years/15 million right now. I doubt he would do much better on the open market at this point. If he declines, then trade him.

1 year 12.5 million is way to much if he accepts (which he most certainly would)

mike wants wins
07-06-2012, 02:34 PM
I'd like them to trade him if they can get a legit 2B or SP prospect for him. Then use the FA money to fill the holes. The best of both worlds. However, they rarely do what I want them to do with players, so I'm not holding out much hope.

greengoblinrulz
07-06-2012, 10:37 PM
under no circumstances should they not trade him. However, if they want to resign him in the offseason AFTER dealin him.....got no problem with it.
If they dont trade him, I hope he leaves as a FA & MN gets nothing

James Richter
07-07-2012, 03:08 PM
I'm about 75% sure he would take that offer and run. I haven't crunched the numbers for next year's payroll, but I gotta think that handing $12.5M to Liriano leaves precious little for the other 3/5 of the rotation.
I think he'd take it, too. I can't see another team giving up a 1st rounder to offer a multi-year deal to a guy as inconsistent as Liriano (though somebody like San Diego might give up a 2nd-rounder, I suppose.) Whether or not the Twins should offer it depends on their risk tolerance. Everybody on John's list except for Sanchez has health/consistency question marks, but will probably get contracts that guarantee $10M or so per season for multiple years. Nick's right: the Twins can't get a higher-upside starter for less guaranteed money than Liriano.

If he pitches well for the remainder of July, I think the FO should plan on making him a qualifying offer after the season. Therefore, they shouldn't trade him for anything less than the value of the 2 comp picks. But, if somebody offers better value than that, by all means take it. If he's still around at the end of the season, let him choose between $12.5M for one year or a 2-year deal with an option - lower AAV, but more guaranteed money. But I wouldn't offer him an extension until after he's pitched well for 4 straight months.

As for the rest of the rotation, the Twins had better be planning on spending at least $20M for two starters. If recent offseasons are any indication, there will be something decent left at the $8M level in January.

USAFChief
07-07-2012, 03:23 PM
I think he'd take it, too. I can't see another team giving up a 1st rounder to offer a multi-year deal to a guy as inconsistent as Liriano (though somebody like San Diego might give up a 2nd-rounder, I suppose.) Whether or not the Twins should offer it depends on their risk tolerance. Everybody on John's list except for Sanchez has health/consistency question marks, but will probably get contracts that guarantee $10M or so per season for multiple years. Nick's right: the Twins can't get a higher-upside starter for less guaranteed money than Liriano.

If he pitches well for the remainder of July, I think the FO should plan on making him a qualifying offer after the season. Therefore, they shouldn't trade him for anything less than the value of the 2 comp picks. But, if somebody offers better value than that, by all means take it. If he's still around at the end of the season, let him choose between $12.5M for one year or a 2-year deal with an option - lower AAV, but more guaranteed money. But I wouldn't offer him an extension until after he's pitched well for 4 straight months.

As for the rest of the rotation, the Twins had better be planning on spending at least $20M for two starters. If recent offseasons are any indication, there will be something decent left at the $8M level in January.

Under the new CBA, teams signing FAs no longer lose draft picks.

And there would only be one comp pick, not two, between the 1st and 2nd rounds, if he turned down the Twins qualifying offer.

jorgenswest
07-07-2012, 03:42 PM
From SBNation

"The Elias free-agent rankings system is dead. Free-agent compensation is not. In order for a team to receive compensation for losing a free agent, that free agent must have played with the team all season. After the year, the team must offer the free agent a one-year contract worth the average of the 125 highest salaries. If that free agent signs with another team, the other team will give up its first-round pick, unless it picks in the top ten, in which case it will give up its second-round pick. The original team will also gain a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. In the event that there are multiple such picks, the teams will draft in reverse order of winning percentage."

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/23/2581637/major-league-baseball-cba-labor-agreement

According to the above, it is still two picks.