PDA

View Full Version : Pick up Baker's option?



TKGuy
07-02-2012, 11:17 PM
I say no. Baker's club option is for $9.25 million. Coming off of surgery, he probably won't be that effective ( see Joe Nathan) and will probably bolt anyways (again see Joe Nathan). Use the money elsewhere and let the kids start or spend money on other starters.

While our starting staff is thin, I dont want see to Blackburn or Baker starting again next year.

Agree or disagree?

Nick Nelson
07-02-2012, 11:19 PM
Not even a consideration. If anything, the Twins will decline the option (which doesn't even have a buyout) and sign him to a cheap one-year deal. I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with that.

jorgenswest
07-02-2012, 11:43 PM
Without medical data it is impossible to judge.

I am confident that the only way to keep him is to pick up the option. A healthy Baker is worth that contract.

If the best Baker can do is a cheap one year contract, he will take that contract with another team. He will have plenty of offers at that level.

Riverbrian
07-02-2012, 11:47 PM
The option no way... I'm not sure what kind of market will be waiting for Baker and I don't know where I'd cap my interest.

9 million plus will get you a McCarthy or Dempster or Anibel Sanchez. More years obviously but similiar money.

SwainZag
07-02-2012, 11:49 PM
There is no way the option will be picked up. I do think there is a great chance he comes back on a one-year deal though.

You have to imagine with rehabbing and him knowing the organization/trainers/coaches that it's the most logical place for him coming off surgery.

CDog
07-02-2012, 11:50 PM
Not even a consideration. If anything, the Twins will decline the option (which doesn't even have a buyout) and sign him to a cheap one-year deal. I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with that.

You say "will" sign him to a one-year deal. Is that based on some knowledge? Did you mean they'll try? I've been of the opinion that if they decline the option, he'll likely not sign anything here, just because it seems like that's how it's gone with others in the past. But that "seems" is pretty sketchy in my mind. Anyone know how common it is for a player to sign after the team declines their option?

righty8383
07-02-2012, 11:52 PM
The option will be declined for sure. i predict they will offer him a 1 year deal with a base around $800K with insentives that could push it as high as $3 or 4 million.

Crotalo
07-03-2012, 12:42 AM
No. They can re-sign him to a one year deal for less. Although if he's smart, he'll go to the NL like every other looking for a big deal after a nice single season.

fetch
07-03-2012, 12:45 AM
The option will be declined for sure. i predict they will offer him a 1 year deal with a base around $800K with insentives that could push it as high as $3 or 4 million.

I would assume he would get more

Shane Wahl
07-03-2012, 01:17 AM
An incentive-laden deal is the only choice to be made. $1.5 million base out of charity, maybe. Up to $4 million depending on IP and performance.

Cody Christie
07-03-2012, 08:15 AM
Like many have said here already, his option isn't much of an option (see what I did there). I could see an incentive deal to come back with the team since they will be hurting for starting pitching. But he won't even be able to pitch at the beginning of the season. Tough to know what kind of deals will even be an option for him.

TheLeviathan
07-03-2012, 08:18 AM
An incentive-laden deal is the only choice to be made. $1.5 million base out of charity, maybe. Up to $4 million depending on IP and performance.

I think he almost certainly gets more than this. I would guess he'll get a base salary closer to 3 with incentives going up from there.

Pitching is hard to come by and Scott Baker was a very good pitcher prior to injury. I'd like to see them offer him a three year deal, but I also question if declining the option won't finish burning that bridge.

Kirby_Waved_At_Me
07-03-2012, 08:22 AM
I have not read anything since his surgery to hint at the option being considered by the team - coming off surgery, he may be willing to stick with the Twins on a one-year deal, though in my opinion he's probably going to be offered more money to sign with another team.
The Twins would benefit from having Baker as depth, but given how thin their rotation has been the last few years, it would not be a good investment to offer Baker the kind of deal he'll get elsewhere. Other teams can afford to offer something around 5 million to Baker and still not have to rely on him to give 25-30 starts for that money.
For the Twins to spend 3 to 5 million on a starter next season, they will need that player to pitch more innings and make more starts than can be reasonable expected for a guy their first year coming off TJ surgery.
I think at his best health, Baker is a great asset - the Twins probably can't afford that risk given their needs next season.

Brock Beauchamp
07-03-2012, 08:23 AM
There is a zero chance the Twins pick up Baker's option.

On the other hand, they might sign him to a $2m + incentives type of deal. I'm down with that, actually.

DPJ
07-03-2012, 08:29 AM
If your Baker would you even resign with the Twins after the coaching staff and front office called you a pussy all spring training only to find out your elbow is mush?

NTM if you're gonna go on a one year make good deal, you head to SD, the Dodgers or another excellent pitchers park in the NL.

Fire Dan Gladden
07-03-2012, 08:32 AM
Not even a consideration. If anything, the Twins will decline the option (which doesn't even have a buyout) and sign him to a cheap one-year deal. I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with that.

Totally agree. It would also probably be in Baker's interest to resign with the Twins, as this team knows him best and they will give him every opportunity to succeed due to their woeful pitching situation.

Mauerzy4Prez
07-03-2012, 08:48 AM
Screw Baker,,, i'd rather see them give Frankie a low end contract for 2 years and take the risk there. Much greater upside over Baker and even if he doesn't perform well, we still have a cheap contract to trade away to a team that is dumb enough to take a shot at him next year. I will probably get ripped for my take, but I had to play devil's advocate :)

Brock Beauchamp
07-03-2012, 08:50 AM
Screw Baker,,, i'd rather see them give Frankie a low end contract for 2 years and take the risk there. Much greater upside over Baker and even if he doesn't perform well, we still have a cheap contract to trade away to a team that is dumb enough to take a shot at him next year. I will probably get ripped for my take, but I had to play devil's advocate :)

At this point, I question how much higher a "ceiling" Liriano has over Moonshot. He's certainly a better pitcher when he's on his game but the difference between the two players isn't enormous.

On the other hand, Baker has been a much more consistent pitcher. Of course, you can throw all that out the window with TJ surgery.

Nick Nelson
07-03-2012, 09:06 AM
You say "will" sign him to a one-year deal. Is that based on some knowledge? Did you mean they'll try? I've been of the opinion that if they decline the option, he'll likely not sign anything here, just because it seems like that's how it's gone with others in the past. But that "seems" is pretty sketchy in my mind. Anyone know how common it is for a player to sign after the team declines their option?
I said "if anything" they will sign him to a one-year deal. That's not based on any knowledge, but I know they ain't picking up the option.

I don't think the Twins will burn any bridges by declining it. I'm sure Baker understands that any team would be hesitant to pay him $9M coming off elbow surgery.

CDog
07-03-2012, 09:12 AM
If your Baker would you even resign with the Twins after the coaching staff and front office called you a pussy all spring training only to find out your elbow is mush?

What about if he had gotten hit by lightning? Neither likely happened, so...

CDog
07-03-2012, 09:14 AM
I said "if anything" they will sign him to a one-year deal.

Completely missed that when I read it. Oops.

DPJ
07-03-2012, 09:24 AM
What about if he had gotten hit by lightning? Neither likely happened, so...

Huh?

TheLeviathan
07-03-2012, 11:03 AM
If declining the option doesn't burn the bridge, I'd prefer Baker over Liriano. I just trust the make-up and the consistency more. I guess I'll take the devil I don't know in this case (TJ surgery) over the devil I'm done with.

SweetOne69
07-03-2012, 11:31 AM
If declining the option doesn't burn the bridge

I don't know why declining it would burn any bridges. With the injury I think Baker and his agent expect it to be declined. He knows that he is going to have to settle on a 1 year "prove he's healthy" incentive laden contract. Whether that is with the Twins or elsewhere is anybody's guess.

Steve Penz
07-03-2012, 11:31 AM
I am amazed that this discussion exists. He had TJ in mid April. I know that surgeries and rehab processes improve all the time but that puts him at about 1 year on the nose. It seems really early to me. I asked Seth Stohs on his online chat last Friday if he thought Baker could be ready and he seemed to think yes. I just don't understand how it is possible that he could contribute next year. I still wonder if there is some detail I have missed with him regarding recovery. How can he be ready that quickly?

TheLeviathan
07-03-2012, 11:47 AM
I don't know why declining it would burn any bridges. With the injury I think Baker and his agent expect it to be declined. He knows that he is going to have to settle on a 1 year "prove he's healthy" incentive laden contract. Whether that is with the Twins or elsewhere is anybody's guess.

Declining the option + the way he was treated medically = my thinking.

Boom Boom
07-03-2012, 12:06 PM
I can see either side - 9.25 mil is a lot for a guy coming off Tommy John surgery, but it's only for one year. And I don't expect the Twins to be big players on the free agent market (as usual). They're going to need to find pitching somewhere. Picking up the option keeps the Twins from having to bid against other teams and potentially lose.

However, if he can come back and pitch next spring, Baker will be making a very quick turnaround. That didn't work so well for Joe Nathan last year. By picking up the option the Twins risk not even having Baker available for a couple months at the start of the season. Even if he's ready to come back, there's a good chance Baker won't be back to form for another year or more.

DPJ
07-03-2012, 12:32 PM
If the Twins were in a position to compete next season I could see picking up the options and hoping he'll be ready for the second half of the season. But with another losing season on the horizon it doesn't make much sense to have Baker back in the fold with his option.

SpiritofVodkaDave
07-03-2012, 01:06 PM
Before we crap all over the Twins medical staff once again, it should be noted that two separate doctors (One who wasn't even affiliated with the Twins?) didn't even think Baker needed TJS, they only decided to go ahead with it once they cut his arm open.

In addition, Baker was in the last year of his contract with the Twins, why on earth would he or them want to push for surgery in 2012 until it was necessary?

DPJ
07-03-2012, 01:23 PM
Before we crap all over the Twins medical staff once again, it should be noted that two separate doctors (One who wasn't even affiliated with the Twins?) didn't even think Baker needed TJS, they only decided to go ahead with it once they cut his arm open.

In addition, Baker was in the last year of his contract with the Twins, why on earth would he or them want to push for surgery in 2012 until it was necessary?

The Twins front office and coaches shouldn't have **** all over Baker in the media then. Like you said in the last year of his deal why would Baker want to be out unless he was legit injuried. Instead the Twins ripped the guy apart all spring.


But what else is new in this organziation

CDog
07-03-2012, 03:02 PM
The Twins front office and coaches shouldn't have **** all over Baker in the media then. Like you said in the last year of his deal why would Baker want to be out unless he was legit injuried. Instead the Twins ripped the guy apart all spring.


But what else is new in this organziation

So Baker repeatedly came out and threw 10 mph (or so) slower than he normally does, repeatedly said he was fine and the velocity would come and he wasn't worried about it, and Gardenhire and Ryan saying that if he was fine he would start throwing with "fine" velocity is your definition of "****"ing on Baker or "ripping him apart?" I smell something (again)...

mike wants wins
07-03-2012, 03:08 PM
I can't imagine why you'd pick it up. He won't be throwing by the time they have to decide. It would make no sense to pick it up.

jorgenswest
07-03-2012, 03:12 PM
It will be very difficult for the Twins to convince any significant free agent pitcher to sign with them unless they overpay in years and dollars. A healthy Baker is well worth 9.25 million. I have no medical information to judge. However, any pitcher willing to sign a one year deal at 9.25 million will come with risks. Any #3 starter or better will get more money or years or both.

CDog
07-03-2012, 03:22 PM
I am amazed that this discussion exists. He had TJ in mid April. I know that surgeries and rehab processes improve all the time but that puts him at about 1 year on the nose. It seems really early to me. I asked Seth Stohs on his online chat last Friday if he thought Baker could be ready and he seemed to think yes. I just don't understand how it is possible that he could contribute next year. I still wonder if there is some detail I have missed with him regarding recovery. How can he be ready that quickly?

There are some guys who've come back and been pretty much all the way in a year. I think average/median/typical is a little longer, but expectation would be that he'd be pitching by the start of the year and more or less fully ready by mid-season. At least from what I've read. I'm not a doctor.

Highabove
07-03-2012, 03:23 PM
There will be a large group of mid price Free Agent Pitchers on the Market next year. Why would you use your money on anyone coming off TJ. Lets remember how Nathen looked coming off his Surgery.

Boom Boom
07-03-2012, 03:28 PM
There are some guys who've come back and been pretty much all the way in a year. I think average/median/typical is a little longer, but expectation would be that he'd be pitching by the start of the year and more or less fully ready by mid-season. At least from what I've read. I'm not a doctor.

This is pretty much what I expect as well, but unless Baker blows away that expectation he's worth nowhere near 9.25 million for a half-season of healthy pitching.

DPJ
07-03-2012, 04:52 PM
So Baker repeatedly came out and threw 10 mph (or so) slower than he normally does, repeatedly said he was fine and the velocity would come and he wasn't worried about it, and Gardenhire and Ryan saying that if he was fine he would start throwing with "fine" velocity is your definition of "****"ing on Baker or "ripping him apart?" I smell something (again)...

What the hell are you talking about?

Baker kept saying something wasn't right and Gardy and the front office kept questioning his toughness and saying "he just needs to get out there and pitch"

Highabove
07-03-2012, 05:06 PM
What the hell are you talking about?

Baker kept saying something wasn't right and Gardy and the front office kept questioning his toughness and saying "he just needs to get out there and pitch"

DPJ is correct. It is well documented in print and on the sports shows.

Thrylos
07-03-2012, 05:21 PM
A few things in play here:

a. I think that based on observations from returns from a TJ surgery for SPs, really we are looking at 2014 for Baker to be effective, so if the Twins are going to do anything for 2013 it better include a team-friendly 2014 option.
b. Darn... some of the numbers that are thrown out there like 800K and 1.5M... Remember, this team signed a borderline MLB starter (Marquis) to a $3.5 M contract and gave a number 4 starter (Pavano) $8.5 M to sit most of this year. And I am not even going to mention the Blackburn or the Capps contracts. So I think that fair be fair, we are looking at at $3-4 M base if the Twins (or anyone else) are going to go the Baker way.
c. Baker will be 31 in 2013 and 32 in 2014.

I still think that the Twins need to fix their infrastructure, both medical and coaching, before they start investing on older hurt players like that...

CDog
07-03-2012, 07:30 PM
What the hell are you talking about?

Baker kept saying something wasn't right and Gardy and the front office kept questioning his toughness and saying "he just needs to get out there and pitch"

I got bored after the following...ALL CAPS lines are mine to indicate source.

FROM THE PIONEER PRESS FROM A CONVERSATION LATE IN SPRING TRAINING '12 (AFTER HIS LAST OFFICIAL START):

Last week in Fort Myers, manager Ron Gardenhire and GM Terry Ryan expressed frustration that Baker wasnít throwing hard since being held back a few weeks this spring. Baker said it would all come at once; that his velocity would appear when his location did. Itís a process.

FROM PIONEER PRESS AFTER START IN LATE MARCH:

Radar readings on Baker's pitches were consistently between 83-86 mph. Baker, 30, generally pitches in the low 90s but said he's unconcerned.


"As long as I'm getting outs, I really don't care," he said. "I'll pitch to the situation and not try to blow guys away. It's going to be there, I know that. I'm not even remotely worried about velocity right now."


FROM ESPN 1500:

In 2 2/3 innings, Baker allowed seven earned runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out one. He threw 51 pitches (33 strikes) and induced only one swing-and-a-miss in 23 hacks, and his fastball velocity sat mostly between 86-87 mph with a couple 88's and 89's sprinkled in.


"I think, at the end of the day, it's about repetitions," Baker said, reporting no issues with his elbow after the start. "There's only one way to do that. Unfortunately I didn't make pitches when I needed to. Six runs with two outs... Just a couple pitches away from having a game totally different. I was just forcing it, the ball was up. But at the end of the day, as along as I'm healthy and getting enough repetitions in, all of that will come tomorrow."


When asked if he thought the ball not coming out of his hand well signaled any major injury issues, Baker said no.


"I know it's going to come, it's just a matter of when. I know we've talked a little bit about the velocity not being there, just like I said, it all relates - the velocity, the location, the not trying to overdo it. You have a tendency when you try to force pitches, the results are not to your liking. But sometimes it's not going to come out as good as it can."

ALSO FROM ESPN 1500:

Baker said the inflammation had subsided on Friday, adding, "it's just a matter of kind of pushing it a little bit and see how it goes. ...

"It's tendonitis," Baker said. "I've been there, done that. It's just a matter of getting it taken care of. But if it's not taken care of, it for sure can be a problem if it progresses into something that you definitely don't want to be dealing with."

FROM ESPN 1500 AFTER TJ SURGERY:


In retrospect, it's clear now why Baker was unable to ramp up into the 90's, but when asked if there were any hard feelings between he and the coaching staff Baker said, "None whatsoever."


"Nobody knows what's going on," he added. "Nobody knows what's going on until you get in there. I didn't know, doctors don't know. The doctors don't know until they get in there. I mean, they can have an indication from an MRI, but what can you do until you get in there? To be honest with you, you're not always completely forthright with the staff. I mean, that's any pitcher."

darin617
07-03-2012, 07:55 PM
I say no. Baker's club option is for $9.25 million. Coming off of surgery, he probably won't be that effective ( see Joe Nathan) and will probably bolt anyways (again see Joe Nathan). Use the money elsewhere and let the kids start or spend money on other starters.

While our starting staff is thin, I dont want see to Blackburn or Baker starting again next year.

Agree or disagree?

This would be as dumb as giving Joe Mauer or Ron Gardenhire contract extensions right now.