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View Full Version : Twins more willing to trade Span



gunnarthor
06-29-2012, 03:20 PM
From http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19444756/twins-are-believed-more-willing-to-deal-span-than-willingham

Twins want a young starter in return. Heyman mentions Nationals, Marlins and possibly the Yankees as potential partners. He says if the Twins don't get the offer they want, they'd hang onto Span.

Badsmerf
06-29-2012, 03:23 PM
I would sure hope so. Span should require a pretty nice prospect in return because the Twins have all the leverage in this scenario.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 03:24 PM
I would sure hope so. Span should require a pretty nice prospect in return because the Twins have all the leverage in this scenario.

They need to get a major league pitcher or a major league ready pitcher (solid #2) in return. Can't be giving up Span for a guy 3 years away from the majors.

twinsfanstreif
06-29-2012, 03:34 PM
They need to get a major league pitcher or a major league ready pitcher (solid #2) in return. Can't be giving up Span for a guy 3 years away from the majors.

Unless that guy is Dylan Bundy.....

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 03:43 PM
Unless that guy is Dylan Bundy.....

Except it won't be Bundy or even close to a Bundy type guy..

Winston Smith
06-29-2012, 03:54 PM
The Giants gave up Wheeler a possible top of the rotation guy for 2 months of Betran last summer. Span for 2 months plus 2 years at a decent rate should be worth a top B+, A- prospect (I wouldn't take less). He may not have the impact bat that Beltran does but you get him for cheap and he should hold his value down the road if you need to move him. NO RELIEF pitchers!

biggentleben
06-29-2012, 04:24 PM
The Giants gave up Wheeler a possible top of the rotation guy for 2 months of Betran last summer. Span for 2 months plus 2 years at a decent rate should be worth a top B+, A- prospect (I wouldn't take less). He may not have the impact bat that Beltran does but you get him for cheap and he should hold his value down the road if you need to move him. NO RELIEF pitchers!

I would be very surprised if the return was a top 50 prospect. Perhaps a top 100 guy, but more likely a guy in that 100-200 range would be the headliner for Span. Span and Beltran are two very different classes of player on the offensive end, and that's where the primary prospect value was driven. The Giants also got two draft picks out of the deal as well, which has some value. Wheeler was not a top 50 prospect coming into 2011, so even Beltran didn't warrant a top 50 guy.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 04:28 PM
I would be very surprised if the return was a top 50 prospect. Perhaps a top 100 guy, but more likely a guy in that 100-200 range would be the headliner for Span. Span and Beltran are two very different classes of player on the offensive end, and that's where the primary prospect value was driven. The Giants also got two draft picks out of the deal as well, which has some value. Wheeler was not a top 50 prospect coming into 2011, so even Beltran didn't warrant a top 50 guy.
Span is certainly worth more than a top 100 guy and worlds more than a 100-200 guy.

Yes Span isn't the hitter Beltran is, but he is an affordable CF leadoff guy who you can pencil into the spot for the next 3+ years.

PseudoSABR
06-29-2012, 06:29 PM
From http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19444756/twins-are-believed-more-willing-to-deal-span-than-willingham

Twins want a young starter in return. Heyman mentions Nationals, Marlins and possibly the Yankees as potential partners. He says if the Twins don't get the offer they want, they'd hang onto Span.You know how I can tell Heyman knows baseball? The way he holds the bat in his photo on the blog.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 06:45 PM
In a perfect world you would trade Span for a Gio Gonzalez type pitcher. If that is actually available on the market at this point.

MidwestMeat
06-29-2012, 07:10 PM
I don't know why all the rush for a league ready pitcher. Wouldn't it be smarter to get a very nice prospect that is 2 or 3 years out instead of a league ready 3 spot guy that will waste his first 2 or 3 years throwing on a noncontending team? There is more risk that way but I believe our potential depth at both leadoff and OF justify it. We aren't EVER getting past the yankees in the first round if we don't figure out some way to get some true top of the rotation talent.

notoriousgod71
06-29-2012, 07:11 PM
Span is a dime a dozen. He's a good, not great CF that doesn't get on base, hits for no power, and no longer steals bases.

If I was an opposing GM I would not be giving up anything considered valuable for him.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 07:56 PM
Span is a dime a dozen. He's a good, not great CF that doesn't get on base, hits for no power, and no longer steals bases.

If I was an opposing GM I would not be giving up anything considered valuable for him.

He's a very good defensive CF who is one of the better lead off men in baseball, his career OBP is .358 so he gets on base plenty and adds some decent pop as well (4 away from hitting his career best in 2B in a season). 104 Career OPS+ with playing a premium position and being signed to a team friendly contract gives him plenty of value. As far as the SB comment goes, he is on pace to swipe 16-18 and I wonder with a more aggressive manager if he couldn't give you SB a year agian.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 07:57 PM
I don't know why all the rush for a league ready pitcher. Wouldn't it be smarter to get a very nice prospect that is 2 or 3 years out instead of a league ready 3 spot guy that will waste his first 2 or 3 years throwing on a noncontending team? There is more risk that way but I believe our potential depth at both leadoff and OF justify it. We aren't EVER getting past the yankees in the first round if we don't figure out some way to get some true top of the rotation talent.

Yeah its a good argument, honestly you prob just take the best arm available, but I would feel alot better if said pitcher was less than 1 year away from the majors as every top pitching prospect has had some bad luck in the Twins system the past 4-5 years. Guerra, Gibson, Whimmers, Hunt,etc

Dilligaf69
06-29-2012, 07:59 PM
They need to get a major league pitcher or a major league ready pitcher (solid #2) in return. Can't be giving up Span for a guy 3 years away from the majors.


Absolutely! but why would the Skanks want Span??? would they use Grand strictly as DH?? and I guess they would drop him in the order and take adv of his power and more RBI opps then Span could bat leadoff but what do they have to offer?? Seems like they make out better in these trades then not.. I know gardner is hurt so that may be a concern if he's coming back.

Dilligaf69
06-29-2012, 08:01 PM
Span is a dime a dozen. He's a good, not great CF that doesn't get on base, hits for no power, and no longer steals bases.

If I was an opposing GM I would not be giving up anything considered valuable for him.



??? explain! good thing your not.

diehardtwinsfan
06-29-2012, 08:54 PM
No GM may want to give up something of value for Span, but to get him, they are going to have to. He has his flaws, no doubt, but contrary to what some around here think, he's going to be expensive, as he will be in demband. I'd hope they get a AA front line pitcher personally, and possibly another higher ceiling guy in the low minors.

This is one area where I do trust Terry Ryan, and the idea of him being the guy pulling trigger on potential Span, Willingham, and Liriano trades makes me happy.

Riverbrian
06-29-2012, 08:54 PM
Sellers market... Nearly everyone is in contention.... It'll be a good year to be out of contention.

Sellers: CF type or lead off potential.

Houston... Altuve... Not going anywhere. Schaefer... Span is clearly better at this point.

Cubs... DeJesus Not a leadoff guy... Nor a CF... Even though he is holding down both.

Rockies... Fowler... Span has been more consistent over his career. Fowler has always been a big potential guy but Contending teams want Production now... Not the hope of production. Fowler has been coming around but Span is the better of the two... right? Now if the Rockies decide to move Cargo... Look out but he still not a leadoff guy.

Padres... Maybin or Denorfia or Venable. None are in Spans neighborhood.

Oakland... Crisp... Leadoff CF... Do you like Crisp over Span?

Seattle... Ichiro... Could be a leadoff but he's old and well compensated. Stats on the decline. Might be locked into Seattle forever.

Everyone else is around buyer territory. Looks like a great supply and demand market.

glunn
06-29-2012, 10:19 PM
Sellers market... Nearly everyone is in contention.... It'll be a good year to be out of contention.

Sellers: CF type or lead off potential.

Houston... Altuve... Not going anywhere. Schaefer... Span is clearly better at this point.

Cubs... DeJesus Not a leadoff guy... Nor a CF... Even though he is holding down both.

Rockies... Fowler... Span has been more consistent over his career. Fowler has always been a big potential guy but Contending teams want Production now... Not the hope of production. Fowler has been coming around but Span is the better of the two... right? Now if the Rockies decide to move Cargo... Look out but he still not a leadoff guy.

Padres... Maybin or Denorfia or Venable. None are in Spans neighborhood.

Oakland... Crisp... Leadoff CF... Do you like Crisp over Span?

Seattle... Ichiro... Could be a leadoff but he's old and well compensated. Stats on the decline. Might be locked into Seattle forever.

Everyone else is around buyer territory. Looks like a great supply and demand market.

Excellent analysis, Brian. A bidding war between contending teams would produce the best value,

Pius Jefferson
06-29-2012, 10:33 PM
Doing a quick search the one pitching prospect for the Marlins worth anything is Jose Hernandez and no way they give him up for Denard Span.

twinsfanstreif
06-29-2012, 10:41 PM
Except it won't be Bundy or even close to a Bundy type guy..

I know won't get Bundy but in reality you shouldn't ex players off the list just because they are 3 years away, that was my point.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-29-2012, 11:24 PM
I really want Span to be traded because I think Revere is our leadoff guy and CF. However, if a trade were completed, I keep getting the feeling that whatever the Twins get in return will have me disappointed.

Riverbrian
06-29-2012, 11:27 PM
Excellent analysis, Brian. A bidding war between contending teams would produce the best value,
Thanks Glunn... It's just a bunch of names thown together quickly but I appreciate it. You have a good soul.

CDog
06-29-2012, 11:33 PM
Thanks Glunn... You have a good soul.

Do you have the statistics to back that up? (That was the first time I've made myself giggle in a while.)

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-29-2012, 11:40 PM
Do you have the statistics to back that up? (That was the first time I've made myself giggle in a while.)

Riverbrian has a 1.72 KSFT (Kittens Saved from Trees). That's slightly above average (1.70) so I say he gets the call. That's also a new advanced sabermetric, so it took me a while to calculate.

notoriousgod71
06-29-2012, 11:59 PM
There's just nothing special about Span that would make me want to give something up for him.

Ultima Ratio
06-30-2012, 12:07 AM
There's just nothing special about Span that would make me want to give something up for him.

Yep, we've already got you down for that. Let us know if anything changes.

snepp
06-30-2012, 01:01 AM
Is having "something special" a requirement for making a trade now?

Fatt Crapps
06-30-2012, 01:05 AM
I would be very surprised if the return was a top 50 prospect. Perhaps a top 100 guy, but more likely a guy in that 100-200 range would be the headliner for Span. Span and Beltran are two very different classes of player on the offensive end, and that's where the primary prospect value was driven. The Giants also got two draft picks out of the deal as well, which has some value. Wheeler was not a top 50 prospect coming into 2011, so even Beltran didn't warrant a top 50 guy.


Ummm...

John Bonnes
06-30-2012, 01:18 AM
The Giants also got two draft picks out of the deal as well, which has some value.

Thats an interesting point. Will buyers give up less for potential free agents now that thy DON'T get back draft picks when they walk? Not that important for Span, but it is for others.

JM$.02, I thnk Span is worth quite a bit. He has the solid D, good OBP, and is a true lead off guy that can play a defensive position. I wrote a story a few weeks ago finding teams & there are even more now.

Fatt Crapps
06-30-2012, 01:44 AM
Damn you guys.


By most accounts in New York, Alderson pulled off a coup. It was apparent Beltran would leave as a free agent, but fans and media were skeptical that Alderson could acquire a big-time prospect for a two-month rental who contractually can't be offered arbitration and, therefore, won't generate compensatory draft picks.

Remember how Verve (and others) were so upset that the Twinks didn't deal Cuddy at the deadline? Sure he doesn't have the name of Beltran, but at least that team would get a draft pick in return (which ended up being Berrios). Some GM would have caved in Billy Smith style and given the Twinks a real nice piece IMO.

But I kinda like Berrios...who knows.

kab21
06-30-2012, 03:52 AM
Thats an interesting point. Will buyers give up less for potential free agents now that thy DON'T get back draft picks when they walk? Not that important for Span, but it is for others.

JM$.02, I thnk Span is worth quite a bit. He has the solid D, good OBP, and is a true lead off guy that can play a defensive position. I wrote a story a few weeks ago finding teams & there are even more now.

Draft picks have never been a big part of the equation when a player is signed for 2.5 seasons. The Twins should absolutely be expecting a top 50 prospect for dealing Span. I also understand that pitching is a big need but I would take the best prospect package instead of looking just for pitching. When you trade/draft for need you usually lose.

FWIW - a draft pick is still possible if you offer arb and are willing to pay 10-12M if the player accepts.

PseudoSABR
06-30-2012, 04:42 AM
There's Span the player and there's Span the contract. The sum of both is worth substantial pieces, whether at the deadline or next offseason. Given the public rumors over that last year, the Twins seem intent on capitalizing on Span's current value, which can only decrease over time...

notoriousgod71
06-30-2012, 07:00 AM
Yep, we've already got you down for that. Let us know if anything changes.


OK, if you're a contending team why would you trade for him? About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-30-2012, 08:13 AM
About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.

Wow, are you serious?

For one thing, he has the 7th highest WAR of any CF this year, trailing guys like Hamilton, McCutchen, Trout and Bourn. Fan Graphs has him as the 3rd best defensive CF this year as well, trailing only Bourn and Trout and also ranks in the top ten for .BA and OBP for all CF, his .BABIP is about 30 points lower then his career average which indicates he is getting a bit unlucky at the plate and his average, obp and sulgging should all continue to improve as well. He has the 3rd lowest K rate which is exactly what you want out of a leadoff or #2 hitter type guy, hes going to put the ball in play.

Through on top of it that you would have Span for 3+ years and you have yourselves a nice little ball player. Hell I could even see a non contending team like Seattle trading for Span.(Maybe not at the deadline obviously, but heading into next season)

Fire Dan Gladden
06-30-2012, 08:56 AM
Wow, are you serious?

For one thing, he has the 7th highest WAR of any CF this year, trailing guys like Hamilton, McCutchen, Trout and Bourn. Fan Graphs has him as the 3rd best defensive CF this year as well, trailing only Bourn and Trout and also ranks in the top ten for .BA and OBP for all CF, his .BABIP is about 30 points lower then his career average which indicates he is getting a bit unlucky at the plate and his average, obp and sulgging should all continue to improve as well. He has the 3rd lowest K rate which is exactly what you want out of a leadoff or #2 hitter type guy, hes going to put the ball in play.

Through on top of it that you would have Span for 3+ years and you have yourselves a nice little ball player. Hell I could even see a non contending team like Seattle trading for Span.(Maybe not at the deadline obviously, but heading into next season)

I thnk you're argument is just as strong for keeping him as opposed to moving him. For a team that needs good players on team friendly contracts, Span fits that bill. He could be one of those guys the Twins view as core for the next big push. I personally don't see them trading him unless some team decides to vastly overpay.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-30-2012, 09:33 AM
I thnk you're argument is just as strong for keeping him as opposed to moving him. For a team that needs good players on team friendly contracts, Span fits that bill. He could be one of those guys the Twins view as core for the next big push. I personally don't see them trading him unless some team decides to vastly overpay.

I'd have no problem holding onto Span, and honestly will be sad if he is traded. However if a team offers you a true high ceiling pitcher or like Kab said a high ceiling prospect of any position then you have to think seriously about trading him. I'd prefer its a major league ready or close to major league ready #2 pitcher, but that's (think Gio Gonzalez prior to this year) but that is just my preference.

Revere appears to at least be a serviceable stop gap at CF until one of Hicks, Arcia, Buxton or Benson pushes the issue.

Brock Beauchamp
06-30-2012, 09:43 AM
OK, if you're a contending team why would you trade for him? About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.

Take a look around the majors at some of the guys contending teams are running out in the leadoff spot. Now look again and see who some of those same contending teams are running out in centerfield.

A .700+ OPS guy with speed, a decent OBP, and good centerfield defense isn't that easy to come by. Add in the fact that he's under 30 and is cost-controlled for over two more seasons and you have a guy that teams want on their rosters.

Hell, I'll do it for you:

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=was#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&sectionType=st&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1341067737361&split=b1&sortColumn=obp&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

The Reds' leadoff men are getting on base 23% of the time. The Dodgers are getting on base 28% of the time. The Orioles are getting on base 25% of the time, the Pirates 27%.

You don't think those teams would love to have a table setter that gets on base 34-35% of the time?

I keep saying it over and over again but this is not 2004. Baseball is a different game. While we used to be a little meh about guys who get on base 34% of the time in 2004, they're a real and valuable commodity in 2012 and they're well above the MLB average.

MidwestMeat
06-30-2012, 10:14 AM
Yeah its a good argument, honestly you prob just take the best arm available, but I would feel alot better if said pitcher was less than 1 year away from the majors as every top pitching prospect has had some bad luck in the Twins system the past 4-5 years. Guerra, Gibson, Whimmers, Hunt,etc

The twins really have had awful luck with pitching prospects. I don't know what is more frustrating.....having all our prospects go down with TJ or finally landing a true ace and watching him leave once he gets those dollar signs in his eyes.

jorgenswest
06-30-2012, 10:42 AM
If we trade Span and move Revere, who do we have ready to go into RF for 2013? Parmelee? Benson? We can't count on Arcia to be ready.

Free agency? Take a look at the available free agent outfielders. Who will sign for the money they are paying Span?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177

Hardly any. We can probably get Delmon back.

Let's keep the below market value we have in Span and overpay a pitcher in the winter.

Brock Beauchamp
06-30-2012, 10:48 AM
If we trade Span and move Revere, who do we have ready to go into RF for 2013? Parmelee? Benson? We can't count on Arcia to be ready.

Free agency? Take a look at the available free agent outfielders. Who will sign for the money they are paying Span?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177

Hardly any. We can probably get Delmon back.

Let's keep the below market value we have in Span and overpay a pitcher in the winter.

With the glut of outfielders the Twins have in the wings, it won't kill the team to sign a mediocre stopgap or just plug their noses with a Mastrioanni type and hope that one of the kids is ready by next July.

The Twins need starters far more than they need outfielders.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-30-2012, 10:54 AM
With the glut of outfielders the Twins have in the wings, it won't kill the team to sign a mediocre stopgap and hope that one of the kids is ready by next July.

The Twins need starters far more than they need outfielders.
Yeah, also it should be pointed out that finding a capable RF on the FA/trade market is prob the easiest position to find.

But any of Benson, Parmelee, Doumit, Hicks, Arcia or even Plouffe (if Valencia starts playing well again) could man RF in 2013. The FA market has a few guys you could prob bring in on a cheap enough deal like Tori Hunter, Cody Ross, Andruw Jones or Scott Hariston.

jorgenswest
06-30-2012, 11:25 AM
I am in as long as the Twins stay in house or gamble on minor league free agent. Let's go cheap in RF with Parmelee or other. Trade Span and get pitching prospects. Take the Span money saved in RF and overpay a pitcher.

I am not in if it means they sign a decline phase RF to a contract similar to Carroll and Doumit.

greengoblinrulz
06-30-2012, 12:36 PM
Spans biggest negative for me is his lack of SB speed....which he really never had if you look back.
I am extremely happy with his 25 XBH this yr (2nd on club to Josh W)....10th in Lg in doubles w/20. On pace for over 50 & that is excellent.
His CF defensive metrics are also outstanding.....with a modest 350 INN to qualify, he's 2nd in majors & first in AL in UZR w/5.4, range w/4.2 & runs saved w/10 (all 2nd to Michael Bourne).....for those that follow defense.
Add in his contract, & he should yield a VERY good deal soon.

biggentleben
06-30-2012, 01:30 PM
FWIW - a draft pick is still possible if you offer arb and are willing to pay 10-12M if the player accepts.

It's not "arbitration" anymore. It's a qualifying offer. However, for a rental, there are no draft picks, unless the guy accepts a qualifying offer, and plays a full season for the team that traded for him at the offer amount. A player must be on a team's roster (or in the organization) from Opening Day in order to qualify for any compensation.

biggentleben
06-30-2012, 01:34 PM
Spans biggest negative for me is his lack of SB speed....which he really never had if you look back.

It's not really speed. Span has speed, and he's a good baserunner. He's just not a good base stealer for some reason. There is a big difference between the two. Cristian Guzman early in his career was the best baserunner I've ever watched live, but he was a horrible base stealer.

Riverbrian
06-30-2012, 01:46 PM
It's not really speed. Span has speed, and he's a good baserunner. He's just not a good base stealer for some reason. There is a big difference between the two. Cristian Guzman early in his career was the best baserunner I've ever watched live, but he was a horrible base stealer.

I agree... Base stealing is a combination of guts, instinct, confidence, organizational philosophy and the battery combination they are facing. Speed helps greatly but doesn't mean you are a base stealer. Gardy may not like all the advanced metric stats but I'm willing to bet that he has a stop watch and the willingness to express disapointment over base runners getting thrown out.

In my opinion, Span could become a base stealer over time if he was traded to a more aggressive organization such as the Brewers or Angels.

Vervehound
06-30-2012, 02:03 PM
one thing that crimps a trade with the nationals was that they dealt a bunch of prospects to get gio gonzalez, including peacock and cole, who'd likely be at the front of any group of prospects we'd be asking for.

biggentleben
06-30-2012, 02:11 PM
one thing that crimps a trade with the nationals was that they dealt a bunch of prospects to get gio gonzalez, including peacock and cole, who'd likely be at the front of any group of prospects we'd be asking for.

And the guys of interest in the organization at this point wouldn't be available, like Rendon, or would be more highly thought of by Washington than their relative value, like Alex Meyer and Matt Purke. I could see some guys like Marrero or their group of lefties (Solis, Ray, and Rosenbaum) being trade bait for Span, but I'm not sure that's the return many here would be happy with.

greengoblinrulz
06-30-2012, 02:33 PM
It's not really speed. Span has speed, and he's a good baserunner. He's just not a good base stealer for some reason. There is a big difference between the two. Cristian Guzman early in his career was the best baserunner I've ever watched live, but he was a horrible base stealer.
Better stated than I did. He does have speed/decent baserunner but a very below average basestealer.