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View Full Version : ELIZ #s cannot be trusted



greengoblinrulz
06-29-2012, 12:57 PM
IMO, you cannot trust any players till they get to at least Beloit. That Lgs hitting #s are irrelevant.
EX
2005
Age 21-Eric Lis 148ABs .315/.356/.577--barely made AAA
2006
21-Steve Singleton 144ABs .340/.368/.556--barely made AAA
21-Danny Valencia 190ABs .311/.365/.505
2007
21-Ozzie Lewis 235ABs .323/.375/.523--gone from org after 1 more yr
20-Deibinson Romero 247ABs .316/.406/.506---stuck in AA
22-Ben Petsch 74ABs .311/.463/.473--gone after 1 more year
2008
20-Jonathon Waltenbury 263ABs .319/.382/.540---gone after 1 more yr
18-Angel Morales 183ABs .301/.413/.623---cannot handle High A pitching
21-Evan Bigley 213ABs .300/.360/.587---3rd yr in AA, finally putting up #s
21-Alex Soto 116ABs .276/.344/.621--gone after 2 more yrs
2009
21-Tyler Ladendorf 61AB .410/.500/.721--stuck in AA after deal to OAK
21-Steve Liddle 50ABs .360/.441/.520---only reason still in org is his dad (MN 3rd base coach)
20-Danny Rams 62ABs .355/.444/.790---cant hit High A
22-Brian Dozier 218ABs .353/.417/.431
20-Josmil Pinto 205ABs .332/.387/.610---stuck in High A, moderate success
21-Paul Michael Klingsbury 100ABs .320/.384/.500---hasnt played since
21-Mike Gonzales 214ABs .304/.364/.477---cant hit High A
21-Chris Hermann 236ABs .297/.391/.453---solid AA prospect
2010
19-Oswaldo Arcia 259ABs .375/.424/.672--solid AA prospect, never close to these numbers tho
21-Nate Roberts 128ABs .336/.444/.547---decent yrs at Beloit
20-Lance Ray 70ABs .314/.360/.414---under .200 @ High A
2011
19-Eddie Rosario 270ABs .337/.397/670---very solid Beloit yr
20-JaDamion Williams 185ABs .324/.406/.465---under .250 in Beloit
20-Kenny Vargas 174ABs .322/.377/.489---suspended
18-Miguel Sano 267ABs .292/.352/.637--sub .240ave but great power in Beloit

I didnt nitpick players either....took the highest performers.
Also, lookin @ the #s.....nobody that couldnt hit there became anything of note.

DPJ
06-29-2012, 01:02 PM
The need to add another short season league in the worst way. Either NYPL or NWL or something.

Twins best friend
06-29-2012, 01:03 PM
Would you liken it then to not trusting spring training numbers? In my mind they share a commonality in the fact that i view pitchers to be at a disadvantage. In spring training they're just getting back into their throwing regimens and in rookie ball they're just facing more than maybe one quality hitter for the first time?

Mr. Ed
06-29-2012, 01:10 PM
Steve Liddle 50ABs .360/.441/.520---only reason still in org is his dad (MN 3rd base coach)


Not his dad. Father played baseball at Lipscomb ... Uncle, also named Steve, is the bench coach for the Minnesota Twins

fetch
06-29-2012, 01:23 PM
pretty much no low level minor league numbers can be trusted. Plus you're talking about an extremely small sample of at bats

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 01:37 PM
So your saying players generally start hitting worse as they move up the organizational ladder and start having to face better competition?

Interesting...

Jeremy Nygaard
06-29-2012, 01:45 PM
I agree with your point greengoblinrulz.

I think it's expected that college guys should perform really well in the Appy League. I would also think repeat guys - like Rhodes - should stand out.

The difference between Romy Jimenez and the guys you listed, to me anyway, is that Jimenez was a DSL guy who essentially skipped over the GCL (because of injury). Yeah, there's a big talent difference between the Appy League and Beloit, but I can't imagine it's much greater (if at all) than the jump from the DSL to the Appy League. Add that to the fact - like Sano or Rosario - that Jimenez probably doesn't speak the language and you've got a pleasant surprise. Is it sustainable? Who knows... but if so, he's become a guy that's at least worth watching (a feat in itself for DSL hitters).

roger
06-29-2012, 02:03 PM
What is missing from all of these numbers is the players age when in Elizabethton. If you add that, you will see a trend beginning to develop, ie, younger players with great numbers means the player has a real chance of being something. Older players have to have obscene numbers and even then only one of many will develop into something, ie, Dozier. Of the younger players, Sano, Arcia and Rosario all had big numbers at a young age and remain top prospects. So did Morales, thus, he proves that not all will make it. As for Jimenez/Trinidad, he didn't play much last year but is also older than Morales/Arcia/Sano/Rosario were at ETon.

GCTF
06-29-2012, 02:10 PM
The need to add another short season league in the worst way. Either NYPL or NWL or something.

I think this is the right answer. The Twins and the Braves have tradionally fielded strong teams in the Appy League as neither org has a team between this advanced rookie league and Low A.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 02:14 PM
I think this is the right answer. The Twins and the Braves have tradionally fielded strong teams in the Appy League as neither org has a team between this advanced rookie league and Low A.

I would be thrilled if the Twins got an NYPL team.

greengoblinrulz
06-29-2012, 02:26 PM
Added the ages cause I think that matters also as MN starts their guys in ELIZ who are too old for that league IMO

Steve Liddle 50ABs .360/.441/.520---only reason still in org is his dad (MN 3rd base coach)


Not his dad. Father played baseball at Lipscomb ... Uncle, also named Steve, is the bench coach for the Minnesota Twins
Stupid error by typing too fast.....knew that but my mistake

pretty much no low level minor league numbers can be trusted. Plus you're talking about an extremely small sample of at bats
Dont agree as you can start trusting numbers once low A starts.....tried to give most players 100ABs @ ELIZ, but some stood out.

Arcia, Rosario & Sano are only ones ,IMO, as they were 18/19yrs old.....but none were even remotelly close to their ELIZ numbers cause the numbers cannot be trusted
There is absolutely no reason for a 21 yr old college guy to be in ELIZ for a full yr

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 03:44 PM
Even 100-150 ABs is a relatively small sample size,

Thrylos
06-29-2012, 05:13 PM
Kind of hard to tell. The real test is AA (for hitters) because the pitchers to make it there throw much more and better off-speed and breaking stuff. A not so much so. A+ little more, but AA is the key. And the big differentiator is not how well you are doing per se, but how well you are doing in comparison to the competition. I think that it would be very hard to have a player in AA with an OPS of 900 or more that will not make it to the big leagues sooner or later. Similar with pitchers. If you got a WHIP around 1 or less in AA, you should be able to make it to the majors. The other leagues are pretty much developmental. AAA is the garage...

Turd Furgeson
06-29-2012, 06:01 PM
Scouting reports almost always trump stats in the minor leagues. Though they probably always trump at the Major League level as well. Anyway, the pitching becomes progressively worse, the Appy League puts up big numbers, the Midwest league puts up the least amount of runs of any league in the minors etc. So obviously, when you're going to a reduced season league that favors hitters like the Appy League, into the most difficult hitting league in the minors, in the Midwest league clearly you're going to see some significant differences in their hitting numbers.

greengoblinrulz
06-29-2012, 06:15 PM
Even 100-150 ABs is a relatively small sample size,

No question, but the only data I (we) have to go on.

Agree AA is the league to actually judge a player. For MN, Ft Myers is such a great pitchers league....that is hard also, but if you can hit there......

There are 5 players in ELIZ, this yr, who are 19/20 who are right age to judge.....Walker, Harrison, Goodrum, Polonco & Keplar. 21 yr olds are too old & cant be judge there till Beloit.

fetch
06-29-2012, 07:09 PM
I wouldn't trust low A stats as far as I can throw them. And since you can't throw numbers as far as I know that should tell you how trustworthy low A stats are.

Seth Stohs
06-29-2012, 07:14 PM
Good thread. I don't know if E-Town stats are meaningless as much as you just have to take them for what they are. The further away from the big leagues that a minor league is, the less important the actual numbers are. It's more about development.

I actually like that most of the college guys that the Twins draft go to Elizabethton. It's a terrific coaching staff and a great atmosphere to spend 2 months at the start of their careers. They can adjust to wood bats, to bus rides, to getting paid and all those things.

The age factor is very important in all of this, and yet it still isn't everything. Since Morales, I've been pretty cautious about looking at the E-Town stats too much as opposed to counting on scouting reports. For instance, Sano had solid numbers last year at ET, but he showed some things like 1.) lots of power with legit HR even in a smallish ball park, 2.) a lot of strikeouts, 3.) lots of errors. As for Eddie Rosario, the reports I got were that he had really quick hands and gap power and lots of those scouting things that made me believe that although he wouldn't hit as many home runs as he moved into the bigger ball parks, he could hit for average, etc.

A college hitter or pitcher, unless the scouting report shows some pretty impressive things, I won't rank a 21 year old very high even if they hit .350. For guys like that, I won't rank them too high until they get to Ft. Myers usually. Obviously there are exceptions to everything.

In the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2012, Roger wrote a good article on what E-Town numbers mean. I came up with a list of the Top 15 OPSs in E-Twins history. The list shows a few guys that had big league time and success, but most of them never came close.