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John Bonnes
06-28-2012, 12:04 PM
When do they stop throwing good innings after bad money?

If the Twins didn't have a long-term contract with Blackburn, he would have been done long ago, right? As I watched him get the snot kicked out of him yet again yesterday, I couldn't help but wonder: how much longer until he is recognized as a sunk cost? Why are they still investing innings in this guy? When do they stop throwing good innings after bad money?

And I'll admit - I've been a supporter of Blackburn's in the past. Even within the last couple of weeks, I thought he was pitching better than his numbers. But this is getting silly.

Right now there isn't really another option, but when Pavano or Walter gets healthy, doesn't this have to be over? Even if Hendriks is struggling, I'd still rather see him getting innings than Blackburn now. Or Duensing. Or Swarzak. There just isn't any "there" there.

Am I overreacting?

Mayhem25
06-28-2012, 12:11 PM
I don't think you are overreacting at all. The money they tied up in him seems to be blinding the FO/Gardy. Which brings up another issues, the deal they made to lock him up in the first place!

Yoshii
06-28-2012, 12:13 PM
Hopefully we have seen the last of Blackburn in a Twins uniform after his last start. I hope they dont stick him in the bullpen like Liriano, just DFA him and eat the rest of his contract.

He is a useless piece of ****, who at best is only a innings eater. What does that say?

Nick Nelson
06-28-2012, 12:15 PM
Yeah, this is getting out of hand. I too have been pretty bullish on Blackburn, but my patience is running out. It's always something; either his command is shaky or he's getting the ball in the zone and getting hammered (like yesterday). In his post-game quotes yesterday he sounded helpless, and not like a guy who's confident he's going to be able to get things figured out.

shs_59
06-28-2012, 12:23 PM
Well, I think you guys are overreacting a touch.
He is what he is. A perfectly capable 5th starter on a good baseball team. A Team like Texas , on an ave. year, would love to slot him in their 5th spot in that tiny Ballpark at Arlington. Or White Sox @ U.S. Cellular similar thing. A team like The Padres could use Blackburn because he won't give up the long ball there as much.

Its not Blackburns fault the Twins, saw more in him, Thought more of him than what he actually is, The Twins Mistake #1 pay him like he's a #3 starter for the next few years

Mistake #2 Lock him up as long as they did.

Mistake #3 Expecting him to keep up the awesome #'s he did possess when he first broke in, despite having those Tiny K Rates, and Massively high Oppotents Batting Average. - HE did have excessively Low BB% rates.

The Twins saw more in him than he really is, and I think the pressure has gotten to Blacky as he probably goes out there expecting to shut the other team down in some starts, which simply put ..... He cannot do time and time again. I think its clear Blackburns once mighty sinker or "moving" Fastball does not sink like it once did.

He's a 5th starter now, (at one time maybe a #4 guy) and For some reason the Twins saw much more in him than a back end guy/ long reliever.

mike wants wins
06-28-2012, 12:24 PM
Other than wanting to see Duensing get starts, I'm with you. Duensing is not a starter. He is a reliever with value though, not sure why they are ruining that value by starting him. They are going to lose if Duensing starts or Blackburn starts, don't lose value on one of them in the process.

nokomismod
06-28-2012, 12:26 PM
Me too. I thought the decision to offer him the contract ~2 years ago was a good one. At the time he was an innings eater and I thought the big ballpark would be great for his career. I think the bullpen would be worth a shot before putting him on waivers though.

mike wants wins
06-28-2012, 12:28 PM
Why would TX be happy to have him as a 5th starter? His ERA is so high, no one should want him to start any game, #1 starter or #5 starter. If he was really "as good as" a number 5 starter, the Twins should also be happy to have him start. OTOH, they have no real options.....that's the quandry they are in. The majors and minors are devoid of starters, and yet in the paper Ryan says he doesn't want to make trades and send up the white flag, while also stating he will do what's best for the team ..... so I have no idea what he was trying to say.

DPJ
06-28-2012, 12:38 PM
As craptastic as Blackburn has been and will continue to be, what are the other options?

The Twins dug there own grave with the lack of depth in the starting rotation and now they're at the point where they have no other options but to throw Blackburn out there and cross your fingers.

Winston Smith
06-28-2012, 12:38 PM
Dfa him, nobody will pick up his contract (except maybe the Rangers) then send him to Roch. Let him finish the year down there, maybe he builds some value or next spring he makes the team with a big come back year (being funny). At this time he doesn't belong on a major league field! If they are just pitching him because of his contract our future is lost anyway.

edavis0308
06-28-2012, 12:41 PM
Well, I think you guys are overreacting a touch.
He is what he is. A perfectly capable 5th starter on a good baseball team. A Team like Texas , on an ave. year, would love to slot him in their 5th spot in that tiny Ballpark at Arlington. Or White Sox @ U.S. Cellular similar thing. A team like The Padres could use Blackburn because he won't give up the long ball there as much.

Its not Blackburns fault the Twins, saw more in him, Thought more of him than what he actually is, The Twins Mistake #1 pay him like he's a #3 starter for the next few years

Mistake #2 Lock him up as long as they did.

Mistake #3 Expecting him to keep up the awesome #'s he did possess when he first broke in, despite having those Tiny K Rates, and Massively high Oppotents Batting Average. - HE did have excessively Low BB% rates.

The Twins saw more in him than he really is, and I think the pressure has gotten to Blacky as he probably goes out there expecting to shut the other team down in some starts, which simply put ..... He cannot do time and time again. I think its clear Blackburns once mighty sinker or "moving" Fastball does not sink like it once did.

He's a 5th starter now, (at one time maybe a #4 guy) and For some reason the Twins saw much more in him than a back end guy/ long reliever.

This is a joke, right?

A capable 5th starter on a good baseball team? He has an ERA over 7.50. He wouldnt even crack the top 10 best starters in the Rangers org. You realize how bad he is getting crushed right? 400ft+ home runs are still going to leave Petco.

Boom Boom
06-28-2012, 12:42 PM
The way Blackburn's been pitching, he's not a #5 starter on any team.

Fun with stats - for his career, opponents are hitting .300/.343/.470 off of Nick Blackburn.

DPJ
06-28-2012, 12:46 PM
Fun with stats - for his career, opponents are hitting .300/.343/.470 off of Nick Blackburn.

Think about that, every hitter Nick Blackburn has ever faced is pretty much Torii Hunter (sans BA)

rnw24
06-28-2012, 12:50 PM
Well, I think you guys are overreacting a touch.
He is what he is. A perfectly capable 5th starter on a good baseball team. A Team like Texas , on an ave. year, would love to slot him in their 5th spot in that tiny Ballpark at Arlington. Or White Sox @ U.S. Cellular similar thing. A team like The Padres could use Blackburn because he won't give up the long ball there as much.

Its not Blackburns fault the Twins, saw more in him, Thought more of him than what he actually is, The Twins Mistake #1 pay him like he's a #3 starter for the next few years

Mistake #2 Lock him up as long as they did.

Mistake #3 Expecting him to keep up the awesome #'s he did possess when he first broke in, despite having those Tiny K Rates, and Massively high Oppotents Batting Average. - HE did have excessively Low BB% rates.

The Twins saw more in him than he really is, and I think the pressure has gotten to Blacky as he probably goes out there expecting to shut the other team down in some starts, which simply put ..... He cannot do time and time again. I think its clear Blackburns once mighty sinker or "moving" Fastball does not sink like it once did.

He's a 5th starter now, (at one time maybe a #4 guy) and For some reason the Twins saw much more in him than a back end guy/ long reliever.

you can't be serious. blackburn is garbage and needs to go. as bad as the pitching depth is in the twins organization i'm not sure he's even the 10th best pitcher in the twins org.

edavis0308
06-28-2012, 12:50 PM
Think about that, every hitter Nick Blackburn has ever faced is pretty much Torii Hunter (sans BA)

Opp OPS this year alone, .951.

Boom Boom
06-28-2012, 12:52 PM
Think about that, every hitter Nick Blackburn has ever faced is pretty much Torii Hunter (sans BA)

That's pretty close to the career hitting lines of HOFers Dave Winfield and Eddie Murray.

Thrylos
06-28-2012, 12:52 PM
I have never been a Blackburn fan... That said, I had never been a Perkins fan either. I think that because of the contract or what, Blackburn should get a chance for the rest of the season to prove himself in the pen. Let him be as bad as Gray or Manship, if that's what it takes. But I think from what I've seen periodically from him (like a flash of a 93-94 mph FB, if he forgets and throws the four seamer) that he might actually find his niche there and be useful.

Don't be frustrated at Blackburn (he is what he is) be frustrated at Gardy and Andy who are playing him and starting him. They are the ones who are at fault here, not Blackburn.

rnw24
06-28-2012, 12:54 PM
putting him in the bullpen doesn't improve this year, getting rid of him improves the team.

Thrylos
06-28-2012, 01:00 PM
putting him in the bullpen doesn't improve this year, getting rid of him improves the team.

Like they are going any place this year? Putting him in the pen is a tryout to see whether he is part of the solution for next season or not. This season is gone.

Boom Boom
06-28-2012, 01:04 PM
I have never been a Blackburn fan... That said, I had never been a Perkins fan either. I think that because of the contract or what, Blackburn should get a chance for the rest of the season to prove himself in the pen. Let him be as bad as Gray or Manship, if that's what it takes. But I think from what I've seen periodically from him (like a flash of a 93-94 mph FB, if he forgets and throws the four seamer) that he might actually find his niche there and be useful.

Don't be frustrated at Blackburn (he is what he is) be frustrated at Gardy and Andy who are playing him and starting him. They are the ones who are at fault here, not Blackburn.

This is true, on most other teams Blackburn would not have gotten so many chances.

You made me think of this - http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Gardenhire_says_Nick_Blackburn_in_rotation_Hes_one _of_my_guys030511

gunnarthor
06-28-2012, 01:07 PM
Whatever leash he has, has to be incredibly short at this point. We don't have enough options to just DFA him but a move to the pen makes sense when another starter is ready.

rnw24
06-28-2012, 01:12 PM
how much more do we need to see to know he isn't a solution for any season in any capacity? the guy sucks, plain and simple. the FO screwed this one up, cut bait now and move on. i'd much rather watch the kids with some semblence of upside take their lumps in the pen and learn than let blackie chew up more good innings with bad performances.

DPJ
06-28-2012, 01:16 PM
BTW wasn't Blackburn in the pen a few years back and just as god afwul as he was in the rotation?


You made me think of this - http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/G..._my_guys030511 (http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Gardenhire_says_Nick_Blackburn_in_rotation_Hes_one _of_my_guys030511)

Ah...the coveted Gardy "Circle of Trust"

Riverbrian
06-28-2012, 01:42 PM
yet in the paper Ryan says he doesn't want to make trades and send up the white flag, while also stating he will do what's best for the team ..... so I have no idea what he was trying to say.

Send up a White Flag? Who does he think he'd be surrendering to? You'd have to assume that the players have been around baseball and are able to see the condition of the Starting Rotation. Players would probably be not only understanding of trades for Starting Pitching but thankful for any pitching help. That's my opinion anyway.

Is there some sort of belief inside Target Field that the rotation can get the job done if the wind blows exactly right?

On the subject of Blackburn: In my mind... As a pitcher... he has no margin of error. Never has... Never will... If you average 4 K's per nine innings. That's a lot of balls put in play. If the walk rate goes up from 1.8 to 3.2 that is significant because of all the balls put in play and the BABIP percentages alone will eat you alive. Couple that with a sinker that doesn't sink down in the zone and the HR rate goes up and it's good night nurse. (look at me using those metric thingies... now go watch the game... lol)

Blackburn had a couple of decent years in 2008 and 2009 but was living on the edge each of those years. His contract was questionable from the get go.

As for this year... We have no alternatives... Next year... He's back with us... Feel free to skip his starts to give others with a future a turn. The phasing out of Blackburn should be getting underway. It could last until the end of 2013 or with a loud explosion in the next few months.

CDog
06-28-2012, 01:58 PM
Lots of things in this thread I felt like I wanted to comment on, so no quote since they were from so many. I apologize in advance for any lack of clarity as to what I'm talking about.

Like John and Nick stated, I have also thought Blackburn had more to offer than many. And like them I'm befuddled by the lack of results. As for the actual direction of the original post, the only reason I can see continuing to start him now because of being under contract next year is if there is some merit to the general argument that the best way for him to get right is by starting big league games. Given they are very unlikely to get to contention this year, do you use this year as work to get him better for next? I don't know if there IS any merit to that, but that's the only reason I can think of to keep going in the same lane.

Along the lines of results and what it might take and how far away he is from fixing anything, wasn't it just three months ago that he was lights out in spring training? So this is a question...having virtually no access to see spring training performances and the lack of statistics to properly measure them, is there anyone with the expertise here that actually WAS able to watch then to know what was different? Was it just luck or small-sample variation? Or was his sinker actually sinking and his breaking ball actually breaking and all of that? If he WAS throwing a good, heavy sinker just that recently, is that hope enough to think he could do it again relatively soon?

There was a comment about him being paid like a # 3 starter. I haven't looked it up, so this may be wrong, but I can't imagine the median or average for a starting pitcher in the big leagues is as low as what he's getting. More in general, there's a lot of hand-wringing (or worse) about his contract, but the dollars involved really weren't that enormous.

And finally, I can't imagine how big "a brass bowl" (that's a rhyme) one has to be to call someone a "piece of ****" or "garbage" behind the safety and anonymity of their keyboard because they aren't throwing a baseball as well as they'd like.

chopper0080
06-28-2012, 02:02 PM
You probably have to try him in the bullpen to see if you can salavage any value from him in the future. I think he is done as a starter, and was last year as well. I wouldn't be crushed if they DFA him however.

Thrylos
06-28-2012, 02:06 PM
Like John and Nick stated, I have also thought Blackburn had more to offer than many. And like them I'm befuddled by the lack of results. .

Unfortunately the numbers were there 3-4 years ago that showed that Blackburn was as effective a starter as Perkins was. Here (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2009/08/state-of-twins-pitching-and-trade.html)is a crunching at some point in 2009. Clearly, Blackburn has not been cutting it since then (and even before that.) That is 3 seasons ago. Nothing new. Just Gardy and Andy cannot see it, because they do not think that way.

And I agree, there is no reason to deamean any player personally. They are who they are. Most of us wish to have half Blackburn's talent ;)

glunn
06-28-2012, 02:06 PM
Lots of things in this thread I felt like I wanted to comment on, so no quote since they were from so many. I apologize in advance for any lack of clarity as to what I'm talking about.

Like John and Nick stated, I have also thought Blackburn had more to offer than many. And like them I'm befuddled by the lack of results. As for the actual direction of the original post, the only reason I can see continuing to start him now because of being under contract next year is if there is some merit to the general argument that the best way for him to get right is by starting big league games. Given they are very unlikely to get to contention this year, do you use this year as work to get him better for next? I don't know if there IS any merit to that, but that's the only reason I can think of to keep going in the same lane.

Along the lines of results and what it might take and how far away he is from fixing anything, wasn't it just three months ago that he was lights out in spring training? So this is a question...having virtually no access to see spring training performances and the lack of statistics to properly measure them, is there anyone with the expertise here that actually WAS able to watch then to know what was different? Was it just luck or small-sample variation? Or was his sinker actually sinking and his breaking ball actually breaking and all of that? If he WAS throwing a good, heavy sinker just that recently, is that hope enough to think he could do it again relatively soon?

There was a comment about him being paid like a # 3 starter. I haven't looked it up, so this may be wrong, but I can't imagine the median or average for a starting pitcher in the big leagues is as low as what he's getting. More in general, there's a lot of hand-wringing (or worse) about his contract, but the dollars involved really weren't that enormous.

And finally, I can't imagine how big "a brass bowl" (that's a rhyme) one has to be to call someone a "piece of ****" or "garbage" behind the safety and anonymity of their keyboard because they aren't throwing a baseball as well as they'd like.

I agree with all of this and would love to see one of our gurus address these issues.

Boom Boom
06-28-2012, 02:11 PM
So this is a question...having virtually no access to see spring training performances and the lack of statistics to properly measure them, is there anyone with the expertise here that actually WAS able to watch then to know what was different? Was it just luck or small-sample variation? Or was his sinker actually sinking and his breaking ball actually breaking and all of that? If he WAS throwing a good, heavy sinker just that recently, is that hope enough to think he could do it again relatively soon?


Spring Training stats?

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=min#playerType=ALL&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page_type=SortablePlayer&season=2012&season_type=ANY&sportCode='mlb'&league_code='MLB'&split=&team_id=142&active_sw=&game_type='S'&position=&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=avg&results=&page=1&perPage=50&timeframe=&extended=0&last_x_days=&ts=1340909907724&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching

Blackburn's ST numbers were very good. I don't put stock into ST numbers for multiple reasons. Small sample size, questionable competition, players "working on things" rather than playing their game, pitchers "ahead of the hitters", etc, etc, etc. Look at some of the other Twins pitchers that had very good STs - not exactly a cross-section of the best pitchers in the organization.

cr9617
06-28-2012, 02:21 PM
Spring Training numbers? Come on....

CDog
06-28-2012, 02:23 PM
Spring Training stats?

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=min#playerType=ALL&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page_type=SortablePlayer&season=2012&season_type=ANY&sportCode='mlb'&league_code='MLB'&split=&team_id=142&active_sw=&game_type='S'&position=&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=avg&results=&page=1&perPage=50&timeframe=&extended=0&last_x_days=&ts=1340909907724&elem=[object+Object]&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching

Blackburn's ST numbers were very good. I don't put stock into ST numbers for multiple reasons. Small sample size, questionable competition, players "working on things" rather than playing their game, pitchers "ahead of the hitters", etc, etc, etc. Look at some of the other Twins pitchers that had very good STs - not exactly a cross-section of the best pitchers in the organization.

Right. Like you said, these are small samples. AND they don't count "non-official" appearances. AND they don't include secondary stats that are likely more useful about swings and misses and strikes and all that. Which is why I said (and I think you're agreeing) that there aren't stats there to accurately explain what was going on.

CDog
06-28-2012, 02:24 PM
Spring Training numbers? Come on....

Do feel free to read entire sentences and paragraphs to get actual meaning.

snepp
06-28-2012, 02:27 PM
Spring Training numbers? Come on....

Quoted for reinforcement.

Boom Boom
06-28-2012, 02:33 PM
I don't think Bill James or any of his sabermetric acolytes are burning the midnight oil to crunch spring training data.

The guys who should know best what was working for Blackburn then - and what isn't working for him now - are Gardenhire and Anderson. If it was something that could be easily fixed, like a move to the other side of the rubber or a minor mechanical flaw, they'd have fixed it by now.

The easiest answer is that Blackburn's spring training was a mirage, and not in line with his career statistics.

diehardtwinsfan
06-28-2012, 02:48 PM
How long has he been in the leauge now? If it's less than 5 years, they can designate him for assigment and he has to pass through waivers. I highly doubt someone is going to take him, so he clears waivers and he goes to Rochester where he can figure out what he's been doing wrong. Yes, it's expensive to have him down there, but there sadly are better options up here.

Nick Nelson
06-28-2012, 02:50 PM
Like John and Nick stated, I have also thought Blackburn had more to offer than many. And like them I'm befuddled by the lack of results. As for the actual direction of the original post, the only reason I can see continuing to start him now because of being under contract next year is if there is some merit to the general argument that the best way for him to get right is by starting big league games. Given they are very unlikely to get to contention this year, do you use this year as work to get him better for next? I don't know if there IS any merit to that, but that's the only reason I can think of to keep going in the same lane.
I have generally felt the Twins should stick with him in the rotation for this reason, but the lack of ANY improvement is a serious red flag. I mean, we're halfway through the season now; at some point a guy needs to earn his keep, and Blackburn hasn't turned in a quality start in two months. It's just not fair to the fans (or the admittedly uninspiring replacement options) to keep trotting the guy out when he's this awful. I wouldn't necessarily DFA him, but at the very least the Twins need to bump him to the bullpen for a while so he can clear his head and work things out -- seemed to help Liriano.


Along the lines of results and what it might take and how far away he is from fixing anything, wasn't it just three months ago that he was lights out in spring training? So this is a question...having virtually no access to see spring training performances and the lack of statistics to properly measure them, is there anyone with the expertise here that actually WAS able to watch then to know what was different? Was it just luck or small-sample variation? Or was his sinker actually sinking and his breaking ball actually breaking and all of that? If he WAS throwing a good, heavy sinker just that recently, is that hope enough to think he could do it again relatively soon?
This is the weird thing. I didn't see Blackburn in spring training, but I know that Phil Mackey was constantly talking him up (to a ridiculous degree -- I think at one point he had like 30 tweets about Blackburn in one week). I tend to think Mackey's smart enough not to be fooled by superficial ST performances, but he was definitely buying into Blackie and with good reason: He was inducing whiffs on a quarter of the swings taken against him, which regardless of the low stakes competition was an encouraging sign. As soon as the games started mattering, Blackburn turned to a pumpkin, and unlike his various past slumps he seems incapable of emerging from this one.

CDog
06-28-2012, 02:52 PM
Quoted for reinforcement.

And to repeat for your reinforcement...

"Do feel free to read entire sentences and paragraphs to get actual meaning."

CDog
06-28-2012, 02:54 PM
I don't think Bill James or any of his sabermetric acolytes are burning the midnight oil to crunch spring training data.

The guys who should know best what was working for Blackburn then - and what isn't working for him now - are Gardenhire and Anderson. If it was something that could be easily fixed, like a move to the other side of the rubber or a minor mechanical flaw, they'd have fixed it by now.

The easiest answer is that Blackburn's spring training was a mirage, and not in line with his career statistics.

Which is why I was curious if anyone was both there to see AND had the expertise to notice what (if anything) was different.

shs_59
06-28-2012, 02:58 PM
This is a joke, right?

A capable 5th starter on a good baseball team? He has an ERA over 7.50. He wouldnt even crack the top 10 best starters in the Rangers org. You realize how bad he is getting crushed right? 400ft+ home runs are still going to leave Petco.


You're overreacting!

woa dude stop, just please stop

Anybody Even Tim Lincecum, can put up 2 1/2 months of ERA @ 7.50 +

Its all about the context and the sample size.

Blackburns career ERA (useless statistic that it is) is still less than 5.00 ...........

Please stop it was not a Joke and just about ANY YEAR besides THIS Year and last, YES the Texas Rangers, would love to have had him in their 5th spot on opening day.

I will say 5th starters are easily replacable they're replacement Level players &Orgs.Like ours and the Rangers can pump them out 2-3 times a season. But I think Blacky is also hurt or not at 100% health. He's taking the ball because we ALL KNOW there really is nobody to come up and take his spot for him.

cr9617
06-28-2012, 03:00 PM
And to repeat for your reinforcement...

"Do feel free to read entire sentences and paragraphs to get actual meaning."

Read through your entire post(again).

Spring training stats? Come on.....

CDog
06-28-2012, 03:02 PM
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Blackie was willing to accept being sent down if he had options left (I think he's been around long enough he would have to agree to it, right? Does he have options, though?). I feel like he went down rather willingly (or maybe it was to the bullpen?) during a bad spell last year or the year before. And given his reaction to the most recent outing, he sure seems like he's ready to do something--anything--to get things figured out. Is that an option without giving him the ol' DFA?

On another note, it's a bit of a slow day at work, so I took a look through some other rosters and salaraies according to USA Today's lists. On teams that spend at least as much as the Twins, Blackburn's salary would put him as the 5th or 6th highest paid starter on six of them, and the 4th highest on three others (including being 4th highest on Twins). For the third of the league directly behind the Twins in payroll, he would be 3rd highest paid on seven of them. And for the penny-pinchers, he would be the first (rarely) or second (usually) highest paid starter on all but one of them (where he would be 3rd).

CDog
06-28-2012, 03:06 PM
Read through your entire post(again).

Spring training stats? Come on.....

You can keep saying the sky is green, but it doesn't make it so. And you kind of embarrass yourself when you do so.

snepp
06-28-2012, 03:09 PM
And to repeat for your reinforcement...

"Do feel free to read entire sentences and paragraphs to get actual meaning."

Here's the real meaning.

Spring training stats are meaningless. If you don't bring them up in the first place you won't have to explain them away.

alarp33
06-28-2012, 03:15 PM
You're overreacting!

woa dude stop, just please stop

Anybody Even Tim Lincecum, can put up 2 1/2 months of ERA @ 7.50 +

Its all about the context and the sample size.

Blackburns career ERA (useless statistic that it is) is still less than 5.00 ...........

Please stop it was not a Joke and just about ANY YEAR besides THIS Year and last, YES the Texas Rangers, would love to have had him in their 5th spot on opening day.

I will say 5th starters are easily replacable they're replacement Level players &Orgs.Like ours and the Rangers can pump them out 2-3 times a season. But I think Blacky is also hurt or not at 100% health. He's taking the ball because we ALL KNOW there really is nobody to come up and take his spot for him.


1st of all, his ERA in the last calender year is 7, so its not really a small sample size.

2nd of all, you bring up replacement level performance. Do you realize since the start of 2010 he has been worth 1.5 wins LESS than a replacement level player?

3rd, what injury does he currently have that isn't being reported? More than any pitcher I can ever remember he likes to make excuses after getting rocked, but his forearm was fixed in the offseason and he's 100% healthy

shs_59
06-28-2012, 03:19 PM
Yes I realize these things, I guess I thought he was -0.5 or -1.0 To replacement level.

But he's been hurt too you know.

I'm not at all saying he's 100% healthy even right now.
Its the Twins Fault , my original point, not HIS that we signed him to that deal.

Ok?

Just stop it already

Its the Twins mistake the deal went down, not blackburns. He is what he is when healthy, a 4-5th starter.

CDog
06-28-2012, 03:19 PM
Here's the real meaning.

Spring training stats are meaningless. If you don't bring them up in the first place you won't have to explain them away.

You just used "spring training" and "stats" in the same sentence. Therefore you think they matter. See how stupid that sounds? Every time I "brought them up" was to say that there weren't stats to properly measure spring training performance. If you're going to attack with snark, it really is a good idea to read what you're responding to. Or have someone do it for you that can understand. Because otherwise you sound dumb AND like a jerk. One of those at a time isn't so bad, but both at once is no fun for anyone.

cr9617
06-28-2012, 03:32 PM
You just used "spring training" and "stats" in the same sentence. Therefore you think they matter. See how stupid that sounds? Every time I "brought them up" was to say that there weren't stats to properly measure spring training performance. If you're going to attack with snark, it really is a good idea to read what you're responding to. Or have someone do it for you that can understand. Because otherwise you sound dumb AND like a jerk. One of those at a time isn't so bad, but both at once is no fun for anyone.

I don't know what you are trying to prove with your little tantrum. It's probably best for all of us if you analyze spring training statistics on your own time.
Thanks for you cooperation.

John Bonnes
06-28-2012, 03:33 PM
He hasn't been either effective OR durable since 2009. In 2010 & 2011 he averaged 150 IP and a 5+ ERA and this year he's been on the DL twice and has an ERA over 7. He's not good and he hasn't been good for quite some time.

And his salary is a little misleading, too. First, comparing him to other teams is tricky, since the is based on whether they were signed as free agents or in arbitration. The bottom line is that he hasn't earned his salary and he wouldn't be getting these chances if he didn't have that deal. Look at Marquis - he had a simiar deal for this year but was DFAed because he was terrible. The difference is the money next year, not this year.

BTW, I like Blackburns, but I savaged that deal (http://twinsgeek.blogspot.com/2010/03/twins-risk-getting-black-burned.html)when it was made. I wasn't alone. This is an organizational blind spot, because they did it with Silva and Mays, too. This is looking a lot like that Joe Mays deal, actually.

jokin
06-28-2012, 03:38 PM
You just used "spring training" and "stats" in the same sentence. Therefore you think they matter. See how stupid that sounds? Every time I "brought them up" was to say that there weren't stats to properly measure spring training performance. If you're going to attack with snark, it really is a good idea to read what you're responding to. Or have someone do it for you that can understand. Because otherwise you sound dumb AND like a jerk. One of those at a time isn't so bad, but both at once is no fun for anyone.

Huh.

I agreed with your previous post about anonymous posters at their keyboard, demeaning people by calling them names and besmirching their character. I guess this post qualifies for your closing sentence, "two-at-a-time" qualifier, then. Such fun for everyone.

CDog
06-28-2012, 03:40 PM
I don't know what you are trying to prove with your little tantrum. It's probably best for all of us if you analyze spring training statistics on your own time.
Thanks for you cooperation.

Each time you re-tell your lie gets a little bit more sad. Even more so because it is fairly clear that you think you're being clever.

CDog
06-28-2012, 03:42 PM
And his salary is a little misleading, too. First, comparing him to other teams is tricky, since the is based on whether they were signed as free agents or in arbitration.

I agree that the salary comments weren't really an "analysis." It was really a reply to my own comment in an earlier post that I doubted he was paid like a typical # 3 starter.

CDog
06-28-2012, 03:46 PM
Huh.

I agreed with your previous post about anonymous posters at their keyboard, demeaning people by calling them names and besmirching their character. I guess this post qualifies for your closing sentence, "two-at-a-time" qualifier, then. Such fun for everyone.

The post you refer to was about comments directed at athletes besmirching (that is a fantastic word) their personal character based on their athletic success. Responding to someone lying about what I've said...then doing it again...and then doing it again, and all while trying to belittle me based on said lie isn't nearly the same thing.

Highabove
06-28-2012, 03:48 PM
Who cares if he is out of options. It would be a blessing if he was claimed by someone.

Rosterman
06-28-2012, 03:51 PM
The reincarnation of Carlos Silva. If you truly have the best fielding team, mainly. But he does give up the long-ball, too. Everyone ahs to be on when he pitches. And if he's just giving you five innings, you can find junkballers to do that any old day.

Cut the bugger. Take the salary hit this year. Let him Mike Lamb himself thru baseball with other teams. You ate Marquis. You can eat Blackburn. Get him off the roster if nothing else.

Brock Beauchamp
06-28-2012, 04:25 PM
It would be a blessing if he was claimed by someone.

Yep. It would be a gift to the team if someone picked up his salary by claiming him.

Thrylos
06-28-2012, 04:37 PM
Who cares if he is out of options. It would be a blessing if he was claimed by someone.

Same reason they should DFA Nishioka off the 40-man roster

Paul
06-28-2012, 06:01 PM
I know a little about pitching. I hope this helps. The sinker that is Blackburn's bread and butter is a real finesse pitch. I believe the Twins staff, me, and plenty of others, were enamored with Blackburn because of his fleeting mastery of the pitch. And the belief that his simple mechanics put the unfleeting mastery of the pitch within his grasp. I have to admit that I haven't watched much of the Twins the past year so I really don't have an opinion on what's wrong now. I do know that the sinker must be mixed with at least 1 other pitch, and a SP needs to be able to change speeds. Because it tips the pitch, ML pitchers rarely succeed with different arm slots for different pitches. Unfortunately different arm slots work best for different pitches, so finding a slot that works best for the mix is challenging. Arm/shoulder/elbow pain can put a pitcher at odds with his body and render a particular pitch ineffective. If a sinker don't sink, or a cutter don't cut, or a slider don't slide, you ain't exactly helping out. Finally, you can hang a sinker just like a curveball, so if you aren't commanding whatever you're throwing you won't succeed. Blackburn could have 1 or all of these maladies, I don't know because I haven't seen him. But one thing's for certain, he's not carrying his end right now.

DPJ
06-28-2012, 06:07 PM
I know a little about pitching. I hope this helps. The sinker that is Blackburn's bread and butter is a real finesse pitch. I believe the Twins staff, me, and plenty of others, were enamored with Blackburn because of his fleeting mastery of the pitch. And the belief that his simple mechanics put the unfleeting mastery of the pitch within his grasp. I have to admit that I haven't watched much of the Twins the past year so I really don't have an opinion on what's wrong now. I do know that the sinker must be mixed with at least 1 other pitch, and a SP needs to be able to change speeds. Because it tips the pitch, ML pitchers rarely succeed with different arm slots for different pitches. Unfortunately different arm slots work best for different pitches, so finding a slot that works best for the mix is challenging. Arm/shoulder/elbow pain can put a pitcher at odds with his body and render a particular pitch ineffective. If a sinker don't sink, or a cutter don't cut, or a slider don't slide, you ain't exactly helping out. Finally, you can hang a sinker just like a curveball, so if you aren't commanding whatever you're throwing you won't succeed. Blackburn could have 1 or all of these maladies, I don't know because I haven't seen him. But one thing's for certain, he's not carrying his end right now.

So to summerize...Nick Blackburn sucks.

notoriousgod71
06-28-2012, 06:09 PM
This is a joke, right?

A capable 5th starter on a good baseball team? He has an ERA over 7.50. He wouldnt even crack the top 10 best starters in the Rangers org. You realize how bad he is getting crushed right? 400ft+ home runs are still going to leave Petco.

I question whether he'd be the number five starter at Rochester.

notoriousgod71
06-28-2012, 06:10 PM
The reincarnation of Carlos Silva. If you truly have the best fielding team, mainly. But he does give up the long-ball, too. Everyone ahs to be on when he pitches. And if he's just giving you five innings, you can find junkballers to do that any old day.

Cut the bugger. Take the salary hit this year. Let him Mike Lamb himself thru baseball with other teams. You ate Marquis. You can eat Blackburn. Get him off the roster if nothing else.

We should have signed Rudy Eugene if that was the plan.

edavis0308
06-28-2012, 06:27 PM
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/count/219/qualified/false/order/false

Sweet Jesus.

The Greatest Poster Alive
06-28-2012, 06:28 PM
We should have signed Rudy Eugene if that was the plan.

Or Jose Mijares.

Brandon
06-28-2012, 06:49 PM
There isnt that much better on the team right now. Who would pitch? Lets see we have Diamond, Liriano, Deunsing (from the pen), Hendricks (hasn't pitched too good yet) and Blackburn (can at least make it through 5 innings)

Hurt starting pitchers
Baker (out for year)
Pavano (don't know when he's comming back hopefully soon)
Walters (I think its right around the allstar break)

in the minors our 2 best prospect Gibson and Wimmers are out.

So as we start getting pitching back then we should consider putting Blackburn in the pen. but he still has value as someone who consistantly gets through 5 innings. (thats only value on this staff as it is that bad) We may need him to start again.

I would keep him around to finish this year and even to compete in spring training next year. Hopefully the Twins do something with their pitching by next season so it is a competition and Blackburn could be let go if he isn't living up to his end or after Gibson is in the minors long enough to show he is healthy (put off arbitration and free agency another year). That could be his value too.

I am in no way advocating Blackburn as he should be pitching for the Whitesox right now instead of us. But i did want to see him get closer to the over under of 70 wins that Gleeman and some guy at Baseball america had going a few years back after Blackburn was named the organization's top prospect.

diehardtwinsfan
06-28-2012, 08:36 PM
Yes I realize these things, I guess I thought he was -0.5 or -1.0 To replacement level.



I think what bothers me about this is that the replacement player is about as mythical as big foot. They are there, but not exactly in large supply, and I'd argue that's especially true with pitchers moreso than hitters....

that said, I think we are all sick of Nick (Blackburn that is). Given the lost season, he isn't exactly hurting anyone, and quite frankly he's not exactly blocking anyone either... so I really don't care what you do with him. If he's not a 5 year guy, you can send him to the minors and he can fix it in Rochester, but I'll bet anything that his "replacment" isn't exactly a replacement player either.

Riverbrian
06-28-2012, 09:04 PM
I know a little about pitching. I hope this helps. The sinker that is Blackburn's bread and butter is a real finesse pitch. I believe the Twins staff, me, and plenty of others, were enamored with Blackburn because of his fleeting mastery of the pitch. And the belief that his simple mechanics put the unfleeting mastery of the pitch within his grasp. I have to admit that I haven't watched much of the Twins the past year so I really don't have an opinion on what's wrong now. I do know that the sinker must be mixed with at least 1 other pitch, and a SP needs to be able to change speeds. Because it tips the pitch, ML pitchers rarely succeed with different arm slots for different pitches. Unfortunately different arm slots work best for different pitches, so finding a slot that works best for the mix is challenging. Arm/shoulder/elbow pain can put a pitcher at odds with his body and render a particular pitch ineffective. If a sinker don't sink, or a cutter don't cut, or a slider don't slide, you ain't exactly helping out. Finally, you can hang a sinker just like a curveball, so if you aren't commanding whatever you're throwing you won't succeed. Blackburn could have 1 or all of these maladies, I don't know because I haven't seen him. But one thing's for certain, he's not carrying his end right now.

Thank You Paul... Breath of fresh air.

I'm putting you on my smart poster list.

BTW... On the nasty attack side of this thread... If someone makes the major leagues and then sucks in the major leagues... Please understand that they kick your ass and it isn't close. It's kind of like Goober with no teeth, flunked out of school in 10th grade, today getting evicted after spending his rent money on Beer and Ravioli. Goober Can't understand how the computerized voice on the weather radio has a job talking that way and yet will sit in the middle of a bar and say Obama is an idiot.

The Greatest Poster Alive
06-28-2012, 09:59 PM
Thank You Paul... Breath of fresh air.

I'm putting you on my smart poster list.

BTW... On the nasty attack side of this thread... If someone makes the major leagues and then sucks in the major leagues... Please understand that they kick your ass and it isn't close. It's kind of like Goober with no teeth, flunked out of school in 10th grade, today getting evicted after spending his rent money on Beer and Ravioli. Goober Can't understand how the computerized voice on the weather radio has a job talking that way and yet will sit in the middle of a bar and say Obama is an idiot.

Nick Blackburn being able to strike me out has nothing to do with his talent, or my ability to analyze his talent. I guess we should only post appreciative gamethreads where we give him a pat on the back and battling. No need for any other threads since people who haven't played in the majors can't analyze those that do.

darin617
06-28-2012, 10:21 PM
I am just waiting for Nickie to come forward and claim some weird injury for the reason for his downward spiral. If he needs any foolish aliments he would just need to consult Joe Mauer and he could come up with something for him.

Riverbrian
06-28-2012, 10:44 PM
Nick Blackburn being able to strike me out has nothing to do with his talent, or my ability to analyze his talent. I guess we should only post appreciative gamethreads where we give him a pat on the back and battling. No need for any other threads since people who haven't played in the majors can't analyze those that do.

Ya kinda missed my point by a couple of football fields and kinda made my point at the same time. Thats impressive and not easily done... No wonder you are the greatest poster alive. The average poster alive would struggle attempting that. ;)

jctwins
06-28-2012, 11:54 PM
I agree with all of this and would love to see one of our gurus address these issues.

http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_llavvrkvLE1qbu7b1o1_500.gif

glunn
06-29-2012, 12:31 AM
It's kind of like Goober with no teeth, flunked out of school in 10th grade, today getting evicted after spending his rent money on Beer and Ravioli. Goober Can't understand how the computerized voice on the weather radio has a job talking that way and yet will sit in the middle of a bar and say Obama is an idiot.

Good one Brian. Goober is probably upset today about Obamacare, but tomorrow he will feel no shame getting free care at his local emergency room.

Paul
06-29-2012, 11:56 AM
Thank You Paul... Breath of fresh air.

I'm putting you on my smart poster list.

BTW... On the nasty attack side of this thread... If someone makes the major leagues and then sucks in the major leagues... Please understand that they kick your ass and it isn't close. It's kind of like Goober with no teeth, flunked out of school in 10th grade, today getting evicted after spending his rent money on Beer and Ravioli. Goober Can't understand how the computerized voice on the weather radio has a job talking that way and yet will sit in the middle of a bar and say Obama is an idiot.

Thank you Brian.

As to your critique of the "nasty attack side of this thread", I enjoyed it, and the concept of giving diamonds to ducks springs to mind for some reason.

Riverbrian
06-30-2012, 02:27 PM
Thank you Brian.

As to your critique of the "nasty attack side of this thread", I enjoyed it, and the concept of giving diamonds to ducks springs to mind for some reason.

Paul... (Sheepishly) I ask... What is the concept of giving Diamonds to Ducks? I admit that I don't know the reference but it sounds like a good one.

All in all, I rarely think about it when I post away... But there are times when I think it's completely plausible that Twins Players actually read this site. Why not... They can all afford Ipads and laptops... The Hotels that they stay in have internet connection. They have some down time. It's human nature to see what people are saying about them even if it isn't what they want to hear.

I know they are compensated well and taking some abuse from fans comes with the territory but calling a player a piece of **** is just wrong and it also lacks imagination. Of course players can and will be critiqued and it's a major component of what makes this board tick. It's reasonable to say that someone doesn't belong at the MLB level if they are struggling but calling a player a piece of **** is beyond defense.

Just making the major leagues is an accomplishment of epic scale regardless of the results.

Goober calls Obama or Bush or Shelly Winters an idiot because he doesn't know what it took to get there nor the myriad of challenges that have to be addressed once there and he doesn't have the words or ability to understand it.

crapforks
06-30-2012, 03:26 PM
Welp. This got weird.

Brock Beauchamp
06-30-2012, 06:26 PM
Welp. This got weird.

Sup, hotcakes. A/S/L?