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View Full Version : Article: What Would a Francisco Liriano Trade Look Like?



Parker Hageman
06-26-2012, 11:54 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?719-What-Would-a-Francisco-Liriano-Trade-Look-Like

glunn
06-27-2012, 12:37 AM
Great article. But do you think that the Twins should give up on the only pitcher on the 40 man roster who seems to have a real chance of being an ace next year? I am hoping that they sign him to a multi-year incentive laden deal.

clutterheart
06-27-2012, 05:18 AM
If they trade Liriano, the FO not only gives up on '12 but also '13
There is no way to field a professional pitching staff next year without Liriano. - this is the sorry state of the Rotation.
So if he goes, might as well try to trade Willingham, Span, and both of the M&M brothers

Blackjack
06-27-2012, 06:40 AM
So what kind of a contract will Liriano get in free agency this winter? What would it take for the Twins to sign him to a 2, 3, or 4 year contract?? He drives you crazy with his inconsistency but with his high upside, it could be worth the risk, at the right price. And they could always trade him next year at the trade deadline.... In 20013, if he has truly turned the corner and the Twins still suck, then they could truly get some gooooood prospects.

kirbyelway
06-27-2012, 06:43 AM
Keep him and offer arbitration. If he continues to pitch this way he will turn it down and we will get a comp pick. That pick will probably have higher upside then what we get for him.

twinswon1991
06-27-2012, 06:50 AM
There is zero chance Frankie signs with the Twins long term. What can the Twins offer: a losing team, terrible pitching coach and a medical staff that causes more injuries than they prevent.

Frankie must be traded but sadly the game has passed Terry Ryan by and he will sit around and lose him with zero compensatio.

IdahoPilgrim
06-27-2012, 06:51 AM
There is no good answer to this one. If we try to trade him, we probably wouldn't get anything decent in return, for the reasons mentioned in the article. That begs the question, What's the point? I have no interest in trading for spare parts in the hope a miracle happens and one actually develops into a major leaguer. On the other hand, if we try to sign him to an extension, I just can't see him keeping up this pace. Sooner or later Bad Frankie will return. And unless we offer $12.5M (which would be ludicrous) we won't get a comp pick if he becomes a free agent.

DPJ
06-27-2012, 07:31 AM
There's zero chance that Liriano signs with the Twins unless they overpay for him and that's not a road I'd like to see the Twins go down.

As for arb you have to make a qualifiing offer to any potential free agents so 1) is Liriano even ranked in the Elias rankings as an A or B?

Cody Christie
06-27-2012, 08:27 AM
Anyone else have the feeling that Liriano will succeed for another organization but if he stays with the Twins, it will be more of the same old Liriano?

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 08:36 AM
Anyone else have the feeling that Liriano will succeed for another organization but if he stays with the Twins, it will be more of the same old Liriano?

I find it much more likely that he puts together one good stretch, or even entire season, and people around here start throwing themselves off bridges in despair. Only to see the real Frankie show back up with his 6 ERA and inability to hit the plate.

At which point, of course, another team will tell him exactly the same thing we did (Throw it over the god-damn plate!) only they won't call it "pitch to contact" and we'll label them a genius if he pulls his head out of his butt again.

A trade of Liriano looks like this - beautiful. Get rid of him before you do something dumb like overpay him to stay.

Brock Beauchamp
06-27-2012, 08:39 AM
I find it much more likely that he puts together one good stretch, or even entire season, and people around here start throwing themselves off bridges in despair. Only to see the real Frankie show back up with his 6 ERA and inability to hit the plate.

Agreed. Parker brought up Edwin Jackson. I think that's a great comp for Liriano.

DPJ
06-27-2012, 08:41 AM
Anyone else have the feeling that Liriano will succeed for another organization but if he stays with the Twins, it will be more of the same old Liriano?


When an organizations entire pitching philosophy is throw the ball over the plate and hopefully down in the zone it wouldn't shock me to see Liriano go kill it elsewhere.

Hell I'd love to see a real pitching coach get his hands on Liriano and clean up his mechanics.

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 08:44 AM
Yeah, I liked that comp to Jackson. Liriano has the ability to be electric but the inability to be even consistently decent. He's either pretty good for awhile or he's one of the worst in baseball for awhile. Not much middle ground. I really hope other teams are swayed by this stretch against the league's worst offenses.

I'm not sure anyone can fix his mechanics DPJ. That seems to be predicated on focus and work-ethic. And, well, this is Frankie we're talking about.

Brock Beauchamp
06-27-2012, 08:47 AM
Yeah, I liked that comp to Jackson. Liriano has the ability to be electric but the inability to be even consistently decent. He's either pretty good for awhile or he's one of the worst in baseball for awhile. Not much middle ground. I really hope other teams are swayed by this stretch against the league's worst offenses.

I'm not sure anyone can fix his mechanics DPJ. That seems to be predicated on focus and work-ethic. And, well, this is Frankie we're talking about.

I don't think this is about Liriano facing cakewalk lineups. He's a different pitcher. He's throwing his slider more often and his mechanics seem to be different.

But that's not the point. The point is that Liriano can never seem to hold on to the success he's having... Something goes wrong and he unfolds. Is it his head? Muscle memory? Coaching? I have no idea but it's there and it's real.

roger
06-27-2012, 08:48 AM
Good analysis Parker, thanks!

BigVin
06-27-2012, 08:51 AM
Trade Liriano! The Twins are rebuilding for the next year or 2, so why pay an average pitcher 12.5 Million for a .500 ball club or less. I realize the upside to Liriano, hence his last 3 starts, but look at his first 6-8 starts this year. My vote is to trade, and try to get a pitching or middle infield prospect. He will not sign with the Twins at years end.

peterb18
06-27-2012, 09:01 AM
I think they should keep him. If they re-sign Liriano, sign Baker(who has a real live arm when healthy), hope that Gibson is ready, and then sign Grienke as your fourth starter. That would be 4 strong arms with good stuff. Then have Diamond as your other starter--that is a pretty good staff. A lot of big ifs! Also, I think most fans want a competitive team next year. Not a repeat of the last two seasons.

peterb18
06-27-2012, 09:06 AM
I think they should keep him. If they re-sign Liriano, sign Baker(who has a real live arm when healthy), hope that Gibsouran is ready, and then sign Grienke as your fourth starter. That would be 4 strong arms with good stuff. Then have Diamond as your other starter--that is a pretty good staff. A lot of big ifs! Also, I think most fans want a competitive team next year. Not a repeat of the last two seasons.

I must add that I don't think he will want to come back to the Twins. Probably wants to get away from Anderson and the pitch to contact philosophy. A pitcher like him just needs to bust the ball in there and let the natural movement take place. He is at his best when he doesn't think too much and become overwhelmed. He is more of a natural.

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 09:22 AM
I must add that I don't think he will want to come back to the Twins. Probably wants to get away from Anderson and the pitch to contact philosophy. A pitcher like him just needs to bust the ball in there and let the natural movement take place. He is at his best when he doesn't think too much and become overwhelmed. He is more of a natural.

"Pitch to contact" = "Throw strikes" = "Bust the ball in the zone". That's all it is. You can argue he needs to hear a different term for it, but they are all the same.

Twins have gotten WAY too much flack for that advice to Liriano from day 1.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-27-2012, 09:32 AM
Is Liriano the most frustrating player in not only the history of this franchise, but in all of baseball as well?

I have no idea what I want them to do with Frankie as I am sure he will turn to crappy Liriano again if they sign him to a 2 year deal, but I could very well see him turning into CY Young Liriano if he signs elsewhere...like St. Louis..grrr....

gunnarthor
06-27-2012, 09:38 AM
"Pitch to contact" = "Throw strikes" = "Bust the ball in the zone". That's all it is. You can argue he needs to hear a different term for it, but they are all the same.

Twins have gotten WAY too much flack for that advice to Liriano from day 1.

Agreed. As to the topic, I think we should hold onto right up the deadline, hope he continues to improve and, if he does, get a good deal for him or offer him arbitration (which he might accept). I don't want the Twins to trade him for Dustin Martin/Drew Butera type deal.

diehardtwinsfan
06-27-2012, 09:57 AM
There's a few things to consider with this, the biggest is whether the Twins view themselves as contenders next year.. If they do, they are going to need Liriano. I'm going to assume that while they may publicly say they are, in private, they are writing off next year and will trade him, hopefully for a front line starter in A+/AA to complement the crop of hitting prospects that are coming through the system. If they can get that for him, they should move him in a heartbeat.

I'd be leary of offering him too big a pay day... His history is eratic enough that he will not likely be a team's top aquisition. If the Twins offer him the 12M to ensure a draft pick, they may be shocked when he accepts arb with the hope of having a second good season and getting a payday.

jorgenswest
06-27-2012, 10:07 AM
It is good news that he looks like a player with value again.

The Twins can set the bar for a Dan Hudson level pitching prospect. BBA had Hudson at #66 and Chicago's #3 entering 2010.

It may not be reasonable that they will get that offer. In that case, they can offer him a 12.4 million/1 year contract. That level will guarantee compensation of two picks if he chooses free agency.

His talent is worth the risk that he will accept the one year deal.

With Liriano, any decision is a risk. The Twins may turn down an offer of middling prospects and then watch him fall apart or come up injured after the trade deadline. At that point, offering a compensation level deal wouldn't make sense and the Twins would be left empty handed.

I would hold out for a good pitching prospect and risk the reasonable possibility that Twins will end up with nothing.

DAM DC Twins Fans
06-27-2012, 10:11 AM
I think they should keep him. If they re-sign Liriano, sign Baker(who has a real live arm when healthy), hope that Gibson is ready, and then sign Grienke as your fourth starter. That would be 4 strong arms with good stuff. Then have Diamond as your other starter--that is a pretty good staff. A lot of big ifs! Also, I think most fans want a competitive team next year. Not a repeat of the last two seasons.

Re-sign Baker and Liriano??????? LUDICROUS!!! That would take $20mill. of our (hopefully) 100mill. payroll not counting Mauer. Neither has shown he is capable of being an ace (Verlander, CC level) for more than a month at a time. (and those months are few and far between). If we did re-sign both, there would be absolutely ZERO dollars for any free agent.

Trade Liriano for any two minor leaguers and whatever else we can get. Maybe like Lohse he will have ONE good year elsewhere. Maybe not--but only one. No GM is gonna give us much for Frankie. No GM is gonna give Frankie a $10 million contract for 2013 that Twins have to.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-27-2012, 10:24 AM
Re-sign Baker and Liriano??????? LUDICROUS!!! That would take $20mill. of our (hopefully) 100mill. payroll not counting Mauer. Neither has shown he is capable of being an ace (Verlander, CC level) for more than a month at a time. (and those months are few and far between). If we did re-sign both, there would be absolutely ZERO dollars for any free agent.

Trade Liriano for any two minor leaguers and whatever else we can get. Maybe like Lohse he will have ONE good year elsewhere. Maybe not--but only one. No GM is gonna give us much for Frankie. No GM is gonna give Frankie a $10 million contract for 2013 that Twins have to.
No way would Baker and Liriano get 20mm on the free agent market.

jorgenswest
06-27-2012, 10:42 AM
The only way to keep Baker is to pick up his option for about 9 million. If allowed to be a free agent, he will sign elsewhere. While that will likely be less than 9 million, he will no longer be a Twin.

If Liriano continues to pitch well, the only way to have a shot a keeping him is to offer the compensation level of 12.4 million.

The point is that in order for the Twins to keep these two, they will need to budget 21 million. The likelihood that they will get less in the market is irrelevant, because they won't stay with the Twins for less.

The only good side of both of these deals is they will be one year commitments to players with an up side. The risks are overwhelmingly obvious.

boney
06-27-2012, 10:47 AM
If they get a good offer anytime befroe the trade deadline the should jump on it imo. Liriano's biggest problem (even bigger than his mechanics) has always been his own head. It could take one bad inning, say an error, a walk and a bloop double to ruin the value he's built up with these last few starts.

PopRiveter
06-27-2012, 11:04 AM
I think you could realistically offer both Baker an Liriano a low-end, 2 year deal with incentives. Maybe $7mil + incentives/yr for Frankie. For Baker, offer $4+incentives for 2013 and $7+incentives for 2014. If the pitchers outperform the base rate, they earn what they believe they are potentially worth, but the club would limit risk with pitchers who are currently known by everyone in baseball to be high-risk. If it takes more than the above to sign either of them, you have to look elsewhere.

StormJH1
06-27-2012, 11:05 AM
About 2 months ago, this question seemed absurd because Liriano's ERA was in the neighborhood of 10.00. Now he looks like a Top 25 starter again. I don't get it. I think Twins fans have accepted the fact that he'll have some degree of success wherever he ends up. The guy is in his 5th season after returning from Tommy John, and in only one of those seasons (2010) has he put together "front of the rotation" numbers.

Even worse (and this sticks in my head more than the numbers), he completely fell apart in September in both 2008 and 2010 against mediocre AL Central opponents, in critical games down the stretch when the rest of the rotation seemed to be doing well. He's a total headcase, and while there's clearly something there, I would much rather have the budget flexibility for signing other starters or improving positional players.

Ironically (and one of the reasons some are tempted to keep him), if there was a type of free agent pitcher the Twins should target this offseason, it would be a slightly younger version of Liriano: A post-hype guy who seems to have something left in the tank, but has been marred by inconsistency to go with his considerable upside.

Jeremy Nygaard
06-27-2012, 11:18 AM
We all like the Edwin Jackson comps, but think no one will give Liriano $10m? Jackson has a year of service time on Liriano (so one more payday, essentially) and got $11m in his first go-around in free agency (granted he earned more his arbitration years). I also read on other sites (because TwinsDaily wasn't up yet), where many - though not all - would have endorsed giving Jackson the contract the Nationals did.

I'm not trying to say its a no-brainer to keep Liriano for the rest of year and hope he accepts arbitration. But I think there are worse ways to potentially spend $12.5m. I would take the risk, under the belief that there is a 25% chance he accepts and a 75% chance he wants to test the waters.

Liriano has probably earned between $8-9m for next year on the FA market... and if he continues to pitch like he has been since May 30, he could earn a lot more...

biggentleben
06-27-2012, 11:25 AM
Is Liriano the most frustrating player in not only the history of this franchise, but in all of baseball as well?

He's the pitching version of Jeff Francoeur.

peterb18
06-27-2012, 11:42 AM
No way would Baker and Liriano get 20mm on the free agent market.
I agree with the above.
The only way I see a competitve pitching staff for the next two years is to sign Liriano, Baker and hope that Gibson develops. From what I see there are no potential 1 or 2 starters in the farm system. Otherwise it is going to a rough next couple of years.

peterb18
06-27-2012, 11:57 AM
"Pitch to contact" = "Throw strikes" = "Bust the ball in the zone". That's all it is. You can argue he needs to hear a different term for it, but they are all the same.

Twins have gotten WAY too much flack for that advice to Liriano from day 1.

Leviathan,
No they are not the same. If you ever pitched a lot of games you would know there is a big difference. However, only a few pitchers can pitch this way--a guy like Liriano can. Maybe the only way he can pitch. There is a big difference between throwing strikes and pitching to contact than just trying to bust the ball. With the later you can just try to get relaxed with your arm and rock back and just try to hit the plate and let natural movement take over. The type of movement is determined by your arm angle. Over the top is best for strikeouts. Like Bert always says," set them up with fastball and the strikeout pitch is the curve, or slider in the dirt". If you told Sandy Kofax to pitch to contact he would be in a lot of trouble. Now a guy like Radke, that is a different story.

jctwins
06-27-2012, 12:02 PM
Leviathan,
No they are not the same. If you ever pitched a lot of games you would know there is a big difference. However, only a few pitchers can pitch this way--a guy like Liriano can. Maybe the only way he can pitch. There is a big difference between throwing strikes and pitching to contact than just trying to bust the ball. With the later you can just try to get relaxed with your arm and rock back and just try to hit the plate and let natural movement take over. The type of movement is determined by your arm angle. Over the top is best for strikeouts. Like Bert always says," set them up with fastball and the strikeout pitch is the curve, or slider in the dirt". If you told Sandy Kofax to pitch to contact he would be in a lot of trouble. Now a guy like Radke, that is a different story.

peterb18,
I think you might have a point, but it's pretty much just semantics.

USAFChief
06-27-2012, 12:25 PM
It is not a given it will take $12.5M to sign Liriano for 2013. That's just the offer the Twins would have to make under the new CBA to get compensation if he signs elsewhere.

It is also not a given he would need to be signed to a 1 year deal.

I remain convinced the Twins should have signed Liriano to a 3 yr deal last winter, when they could have done so cheaply, and remain convinced they should be looking to sign him to a 3 yr deal now, when it would be slightly less cheap, but doable. Liriano would take a 3 yr deal, at something like $21-$24/3.

Where else are the Twins going to get a starter with higher upside over the next 3 yrs? What would you rather see them spend that money on? There is nothing in the upper minors, save the possibility Gibson or Wimmers comes back to be effective in 2014 or so, and little chance the Twins are going to spend the type of money necessary to acquire top line starting pitching.

I would agree if he refuses a long term contract, then maybe you have to consider dealing him. But the "dump him for anything" crowd is just completely idiotic, and trading him before trying to get him signed to a reasonable long term deal is only slightly less stupid.

Parker Hageman
06-27-2012, 12:26 PM
To combat Morosi's point, Buster Olney spoke to some evaluators who were "skittish" about pursuing Liriano and favored the Cubs' Matt Garza in spite of his higher salary. Can't say I don't disagree.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/central-notes-greinke-brewers-liriano-byrd.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Brock Beauchamp
06-27-2012, 12:27 PM
To combat Morosi's point, Buster Olney spoke to some evaluators who were "skittish" about pursuing Liriano and favored the Cubs' Matt Garza in spite of his higher salary. Can't say I don't disagree.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/central-notes-greinke-brewers-liriano-byrd.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


I'd favor Garza as well.

CDog
06-27-2012, 02:10 PM
Leviathan,
No they are not the same. If you ever pitched a lot of games you would know there is a big difference. However, only a few pitchers can pitch this way--a guy like Liriano can. Maybe the only way he can pitch. There is a big difference between throwing strikes and pitching to contact than just trying to bust the ball. With the later you can just try to get relaxed with your arm and rock back and just try to hit the plate and let natural movement take over. The type of movement is determined by your arm angle. Over the top is best for strikeouts. Like Bert always says," set them up with fastball and the strikeout pitch is the curve, or slider in the dirt". If you told Sandy Kofax to pitch to contact he would be in a lot of trouble. Now a guy like Radke, that is a different story.

Was it intentional that you picked THE guy as your example of a non-pitch to contact player that also happens to have given THE pro-pitch to contact quote? The irony is fantastic either way, although I'm partial to the flavor where it wasn't.

It's been claimed (I don't know the veracity) that for a while Liriano was given a target down the middle and was told to just fire the ball over the plate to let his natural movement thrive. That...didn't work.

Congrats on having pitched a lot of games.

mike wants wins
06-27-2012, 02:22 PM
Baker? He just had TJ surgery, he won't be effective until 2014. I don't get how anyone thinks that makes sense. They aren't contending next year, trade them all. Where has anyone said "dump him for anything", where has anyone said that? Straw man arguements are weak.

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 02:48 PM
Leviathan,
No they are not the same. If you ever pitched a lot of games you would know there is a big difference. However, only a few pitchers can pitch this way--a guy like Liriano can. Maybe the only way he can pitch. There is a big difference between throwing strikes and pitching to contact than just trying to bust the ball. With the later you can just try to get relaxed with your arm and rock back and just try to hit the plate and let natural movement take over. The type of movement is determined by your arm angle. Over the top is best for strikeouts. Like Bert always says," set them up with fastball and the strikeout pitch is the curve, or slider in the dirt". If you told Sandy Kofax to pitch to contact he would be in a lot of trouble. Now a guy like Radke, that is a different story.

Why are you responding like this is a civil war correspondence?

You're talking about the difference in these approaches as mechanical. Which would work for your argument if the Twins had tried to change his mechanics. They didn't. The "pitch to contact" issue came up two springs ago when he was throwing 100 pitches in barely four innings. He wasn't trusting his stuff and throwing strikes. So the Twins labeled it "pitch to contact" to get him to start throwing the ball and trusting his movement. If you throw it to where they will swing...your stuff will cause missed bats.

Your example also falls apart because no matter if you're Koufax, Johan Santana, Randy Johnson, or Fransisco Liriano - you don't strike people out if you don't throw strikes. Guys will just take pitches and beat you that way. To put it more simply - you can't get strike three if you can't get strikes one and two first. Hitters aren't dumb. Hell, AJ said it on Barreiro yesterday - the gameplan with Frankie is to see if he'll do the work for you. If he's in the zone - you're in trouble. If he's not, you're going to beat him around.

And, for the record, Nick N., Phil Mackey, and others have confirmed that the "pitch to contact" criticisms are nonsense. I'm not saying anything that isn't well known. I just happened to be on that same bandwagon from the get-go.

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 02:53 PM
Where else are the Twins going to get a starter with higher upside over the next 3 yrs? What would you rather see them spend that money on?.

I would rather see Baker, even off of TJ surgery, make 4/32 than Liriano. As Storm posted above. We're five years removed from Liriano's surgery and only once has he posted the numbers you insist are possible. And in at least two full seasons he has been arguably one of the worst starters in all of baseball.

At what point of inconsistency (and I would argue - reliable awfulness) does a long term contract not become a bad move?

birdwatcher
06-27-2012, 03:01 PM
If you read back in this thread, MWW, you WILL find that "trade him for anything you can get message." And exactly what strawman argument did YOU see? THAT's the thing I missed.

There are several viable options, including offering a fair three-year deal, trading him for Dan Hudson level return, offering him arbitration and either living with the compensation pick or living with his expensive presence, and perhaps dangling him again at next year's trade deadline. Those are reasonable options. The option that is unreasonable comes from the "dump him for anything crowd, and that crowd does in fact exist.

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 03:04 PM
There are several viable options, including offering a fair three-year deal, trading him for Dan Hudson level return, offering him arbitration and either living with the compensation pick or living with his expensive presence, and perhaps dangling him again at next year's trade deadline. Those are reasonable options. The option that is unreasonable comes from the "dump him for anything crowd, and that crowd does in fact exist.

You're taking the point to the extreme. Liriano, if healthy and semi-competent, will have some value. If we have the opportunity to trade him and get value this year - it's better than letting him walk for nothing. The offseason's most likely scenario is him NOT returning. It's far more ridiculous to hope he'll take some team-friendly deal than it is to just want him gone and take what should likely be a decent offer this year.

USAFChief
06-27-2012, 03:10 PM
I would rather see Baker, even off of TJ surgery, make 4/32 than Liriano. As Storm posted above. We're five years removed from Liriano's surgery and only once has he posted the numbers you insist are possible. And in at least two full seasons he has been arguably one of the worst starters in all of baseball.

At what point of inconsistency (and I would argue - reliable awfulness) does a long term contract not become a bad move?

At what point of having no possibility of an above average pitcher in the rotation does not taking a chance on Liriano become a bad move?

He has unquestionably the best stuff of any pitcher in the Twins system, rookie ball to the majors. That seems to me the guy you take a chance on, not Scott Baker coming of TJ, or hoping to snag another couple Jason Marquis types to round out the Blackburn, Diamond, Walters trio topping the rotation next year.

A three yr contract that doesn't work out would hurt the Twins, but not cripple them. A three year contract where he pitches anything close to his potential would be a bargain, and give them a number one, or two, starter, that they need no matter whether they're hoping to compete in 2013 or 2015.

And despite your usual over-the-top schtick, "realiable awfulness" is exactly what Liriano ISN'T. Inconsistent? Yes. But he's always had flashes of brilliance, even in his bad seasons. I certainly don't know if he can become consistent, but I'd much rather gamble on that than gamble on something that you already know won't ever be better than 'decent.'

USAFChief
06-27-2012, 03:11 PM
If you read back in this thread, MWW, you WILL find that "trade him for anything you can get message." And exactly what strawman argument did YOU see? THAT's the thing I missed.

There are several viable options, including offering a fair three-year deal, trading him for Dan Hudson level return, offering him arbitration and either living with the compensation pick or living with his expensive presence, and perhaps dangling him again at next year's trade deadline. Those are reasonable options. The option that is unreasonable comes from the "dump him for anything crowd, and that crowd does in fact exist.

Well said.

Thrylos
06-27-2012, 03:22 PM
I think that the comparison between the returns in the Jackson and Lohse trades is very interesting and teaches a good lesson: Hudson was doing well in AAA for a couple of seasons and had a couple cups of September coffee with the Sux, while Maloney had just gotten up to AA when they were traded. It was obvious that Hudson was MLB-ready, whereas Maloney had "potential". So if the interim goes after MLB-ready players over "potential", he can do better (and at least will have bodies for the 2013 rotation.)

One note: I think that FranKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKie is much better pitcher than Jackson.

About that "offering him arbitration" talk: With the new CBA, the Twins have to offer a contract of at least 1 yr $12.5 M to get a comp. pick if he signs elsewhere. I doubt they do that.

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 03:30 PM
At what point of having no possibility of an above average pitcher in the rotation does not taking a chance on Liriano become a bad move?

Baker was above average recently. And he has less history being awful...why not him? His stuff isn't as electric, but he also hasn't been nearly as bad as Liriano has been.


And despite your usual over-the-top schtick, "realiable awfulness" is exactly what Liriano ISN'T. Inconsistent? Yes. But he's always had flashes of brilliance, even in his bad seasons. I certainly don't know if he can become consistent, but I'd much rather gamble on that than gamble on something that you already know won't ever be better than 'decent.'

2009 and 2011 were awful. That's two out of the last three and then an awful start this year. And this year he has ranged from brutal to pretty good. Unfortunately, until Monday night, his pretty good starts had all been against offenses in the bottom five of the league. Maybe that was coincidence, but maybe not. No one is denying that Frankie has talent. But you basically want to give him guaranteed money out of nothing more than hope. I find that to be a pretty poor way to operate a baseball team.

Winston Smith
06-27-2012, 04:21 PM
CC and Pettit both go on the DL today, perfect time to get max out of Frankie, after a very good start and a team in need with assets. Ryan call the Yankees today!

Brock Beauchamp
06-27-2012, 04:25 PM
CC and Pettit both go on the DL today, perfect time to get max out of Frankie, after a very good start and a team in need with assets. Ryan call the Yankees today!

Well, that's certainly intriguing.

Parker Hageman
06-27-2012, 04:36 PM
I also find it interesting that I write about Daniel Hudson and today we learn that his UCL has crapped out.

Thrylos
06-27-2012, 04:47 PM
I also find it interesting that I write about Daniel Hudson and today we learn that his UCL has crapped out.

Gotta write about Verlander, Cabrera (both the drunk and Assdribble), Fielder, miscallenous WSux players, etc... keep it to the division :)

Dilligaf69
06-27-2012, 05:24 PM
There is zero chance Frankie signs with the Twins long term. What can the Twins offer: a losing team, terrible pitching coach and a medical staff that causes more injuries than they prevent.

Frankie must be traded but sadly the game has passed Terry Ryan by and he will sit around and lose him with zero compensatio.


C'mon really????

Dilligaf69
06-27-2012, 05:26 PM
I also find it interesting that I write about Daniel Hudson and today we learn that his UCL has crapped out.


Oh i thought only the Twins med staff was incompetent and cause UCL injuries, maybe the D backs hired a former Twins trainer and it's his fault.:p

70charger
06-27-2012, 05:27 PM
Quick question - I've heard a lot about how Liriano is unlikely to return to the Twins unless the team throws big money at him. Why is that? Is this an assumption being made because the Twins aren't a good team at the moment? But what if you walk and your options end up being the Cubs and Mariners?

Unless a winning team has expressed a desire for Liriano, or Liriano has expressed a desire to go to a winning team at a discount, about the only other thing I can think of is that he doesn't want to be a Twin anymore. Do we know this for sure? If so, trade him for sure.

Dilligaf69
06-27-2012, 05:35 PM
I would'nt hate a 2-3 yr deal, what's he making this yr...$10 mil. 2yr/$22 mil or 3/$30, they have about $20 mil or so coming off don't they?? If the Jays are really interested in Justin that's another $13 mil even if the Twins eat a 1/3rd of his salary for next yr that's still plenty of $$ fo a FA starter. It also allows Parm to actually play, I'm not saying i want to trade Morneau but it makes sense if your trying to rebuild your rotation and FA or trade will get it done not waiting for the young kids. Span is another $5 mil off the books if you can trade him.

USAFChief
06-27-2012, 05:37 PM
Baker was above average recently. And he has less history being awful...why not him? His stuff isn't as electric, but he also hasn't been nearly as bad as Liriano has been.

Baker had TJ a couple months ago. There's no guarantee he will even pitch in the major leagues in 2013, and if he does, the chances he resembles his former self in his first year back are extremely low. Baker is also under a team option for 2013, and the chances the Twins pick that up are next to zero. Maybe he signs for significantly less, but if (when) the Twins decline that option, he's no longer under their control.

Riverbrian
06-27-2012, 05:42 PM
I would love Terry Ryan's Job... At least I think I would... Maybe it has a private hell that the public doesn't see.

If I had Terry Ryan's Job... Liriano would be keeping me awake at night. His inconsistency has been too great but his stuff is also great. The Twins desperately need pitching and if you are searching for arms and need to try arms out looking for gems. Liriano fits that mold. But, Liriano is just too big a risk based on how bad he gets in long stretches.

More time is needed to make this call. Right now... I wouldn't bring him back... If he's still pitching like this in August. I'd still have to drive a knife through my eyeball fretting over it.

mike wants wins
06-27-2012, 06:43 PM
I saw 1 person say "trade him for anything", and a whole lot (lost count) saying to trade him for value. Whatever, i"m not interested in a back and forth argument. Most rational fans want players traded for something of value. And, in this case, I'd agree. This team is bad, really, really bad. It was really, really bad last year. They are not the kind of team to go out and get big time expensive players in trade or FA, so to me, the most likely path for this particular GM and ownership group is to trade veterans for young guys. IF I thought they'd sign a Greinke, or trade for that type of player, maybe you keep Liriano. But I just don't see it.

I'm baffled that anyone thinks Baker is a realistic option for next year, given that he just had TJ surgery. That's the part of this thread that confuses me.

Mchans24
06-27-2012, 06:54 PM
Has anyone else noticed that Frankie has actually stopped listening to Anderson? His motion has become much more like it was before he got hurt. It is much more violent again which explains the nasty bite on the slider and his average fastball sitting at 92-94 instead of 89-91. With all that being said, someone will overpay for Liriano especially if he has five more good starts leading up to the deadline. Take what you can now, like you should have done when Delmon Young had his best year!!

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 07:06 PM
Baker had TJ a couple months ago. There's no guarantee he will even pitch in the major leagues in 2013, and if he does, the chances he resembles his former self in his first year back are extremely low. Baker is also under a team option for 2013, and the chances the Twins pick that up are next to zero. Maybe he signs for significantly less, but if (when) the Twins decline that option, he's no longer under their control.

The team could reject the option and sign a different extension. But your points on why he is a risk are valid, however the problem is that none of these arguments are all that much more convincing than the same I'm making against Liriano. Yes, Baker is likely to be a mystery next year with a good chance of being a bad investment. But in that second year, like some other starters who have had TJ, he could be even better than he has been. (And he's been better than people think) But as you say....why not risk a little money on that? The difference, in my eyes with Baker, is that he hasn't been nearly as awful as Liriano has been prone to being.

Just to put it in context, there were only 9 pitchers with a worse ERA in 2011 than Liriano with more than 120 IP. Only 12 with a worse WHIP. His K/BB ratio was only .08 better than Nick friggin Blackburn. His most comparable current pitcher is Dice-K over his current career. I can go on. We're not "idiots" for wanting to avoid giving our personal Dice-K a guaranteed 40 million. He'll have some value, let's cash in on it.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-27-2012, 07:28 PM
I would'nt hate a 2-3 yr deal, what's he making this yr...$10 mil. 2yr/$22 mil or 3/$30, they have about $20 mil or so coming off don't they?? If the Jays are really interested in Justin that's another $13 mil even if the Twins eat a 1/3rd of his salary for next yr that's still plenty of $$ fo a FA starter. It also allows Parm to actually play, I'm not saying i want to trade Morneau but it makes sense if your trying to rebuild your rotation and FA or trade will get it done not waiting for the young kids. Span is another $5 mil off the books if you can trade him.

Liriano is making 5.5 million this year. I wouldn't give him 10 million a year, and I don't think he will get anywhere near that on the FA market, a 1 year/7 mil deal or 2/13 I would be interested in. But that is only because I always have this feeling he is due for an amazing run. Fool me once..etc I know, but I can't shake the feeling where he could just go lights out one year and lead a team to the playoffs.

With that all said, if Grienke is unavailable or at least partially unavaible (won't goto a major market) Liriano very well could find himself as the best candidate on the block (Garza will cost a lot prospect wise), if you can get a nice prospect or two for him you don't hesitate for a second to pull the trigger. However if you are offered garbage maybe you keep him around and hope you can resign him?

CDog
06-27-2012, 09:02 PM
C'mon really????

You're here enough to know a troll. I know, I know...sometimes it's just too unbelievable to not respond, but we all must try...

CDog
06-27-2012, 09:20 PM
I've half-asked this question elsewhere and I was even going to start a thread on it, but it seems to be on topic here enough to include. Somewhere I'm missing something in the changes for offering arbitration and getting compensation picks. So...can someone tell me where I'm astray here?

My understanding of the old system and timeline: After the season, a team could offer a free agent arbitration. If they declined, they became a free agent (and the team would receive first round or sandwich picks depending on Type A or Type B status). If they accepted, THEN the team and the player would submit their salary number and there was a period where they could negotiate any deal with the player before the actual arbitration hearing. At the time of the hearing (assuming they hadn't come to an agreement on their own), the arbitrator picked one.

My understanding of the new system and timeline: After the season, a team can offer a free agent arbitration. If they decline an offer of ~$12M, then the offering team gets a compensation pick(s?). But...isn't the amount the team submits only available AFTER the decision is made to accept or decline? So I don't get how the amount is tied to whether or not they get compensation.

Does any of that make sense? Does anyone know how it works or where I'm missing something (that I'm guessing is obvious)? I suppose I could go try to find it myself, but I'll first attempt here to see if anyone knows.

USAFChief
06-27-2012, 09:21 PM
The team could reject the option and sign a different extension. But your points on why he is a risk are valid, however the problem is that none of these arguments are all that much more convincing than the same I'm making against Liriano. Yes, Baker is likely to be a mystery next year with a good chance of being a bad investment. But in that second year, like some other starters who have had TJ, he could be even better than he has been. (And he's been better than people think) But as you say....why not risk a little money on that? The difference, in my eyes with Baker, is that he hasn't been nearly as awful as Liriano has been prone to being.

Just to put it in context, there were only 9 pitchers with a worse ERA in 2011 than Liriano with more than 120 IP. Only 12 with a worse WHIP. His K/BB ratio was only .08 better than Nick friggin Blackburn. His most comparable current pitcher is Dice-K over his current career. I can go on. We're not "idiots" for wanting to avoid giving our personal Dice-K a guaranteed 40 million. He'll have some value, let's cash in on it.

I doubt anyone on the Twin is even considering an extension for Baker. For that matter, I doubt Baker would accept "hey, we want to decline your 2013 option, but sign you to a cheap extension instead...ok?" from the Twins.

As to comparable risks, Liriano didn't have TJ a couple months ago. The risk with Liriano is that he might not pitch well. The risk with Baker is that he won't pitch at all, and if he does, he might not pitch well.

I like Baker, always have, and I agree he's been underrated by many Twins fans. That does not mean I think he'll be a front of the rotation starter in 2013. Nor do I think there's any logic to depending on Scott Baker to man your rotation in 2013.

BTW, I don't think there would be any need to commit $40M to Liriano. I think you could get him for 3 yrs for somewhere between $20-$24.

I can't help but feel if the Twins give Liriano away, this will be looked on as a David Ortiz situation a few years from now. The Twins had a guy with enormous talent on their hands, didn't appreciate what they had, incomprehensibly chose to spend money on Matthew Lecroy instead of Ortiz, and had egg on their face almost immediately.

TheLeviathan
06-27-2012, 09:54 PM
I like Baker, always have, and I agree he's been underrated by many Twins fans. That does not mean I think he'll be a front of the rotation starter in 2013. Nor do I think there's any logic to depending on Scott Baker to man your rotation in 2013.

I can't help but feel if the Twins give Liriano away, this will be looked on as a David Ortiz situation a few years from now. The Twins had a guy with enormous talent on their hands, didn't appreciate what they had, incomprehensibly chose to spend money on Matthew Lecroy instead of Ortiz, and had egg on their face almost immediately.

Nor is there any logic in thinking a guy who has been in the bottom ten of starting pitchers in 2 of the last 3 seasons and still has an ERA over 5 is somehow a "top of the rotation" talent. It would be one thing if you had some balanced expectations behind your thinking. But you don't. Hell, Liriano has been SO BAD in two of the last three seasons that even if Baker didn't pitch at all you could argue AAA filler might be no worse than Frankie has been. Is there potential for him to put it together? Sure, but not worth that kind of guaranteed money.

It's cute to call it "idiotic" to want him gone when at the same time you are virtually in denial about how terrible his results have actually been. Just because you have money doesn't mean you flush it on someone who has ACTUALLY been awful in HOPE that he won't be.

Ortiz is an awful comparison. The Twins, if anything, have overly babied Liriano and done everything in their power to make things work for him. They appreciate his talent and want him to succeed. Kelly was Ortiz' enemy. Liriano is his own worst enemy. Huge difference. I understand the general concern, it's just blinded you to the reality of Liriano.

USAFChief
06-27-2012, 09:59 PM
I've half-asked this question elsewhere and I was even going to start a thread on it, but it seems to be on topic here enough to include. Somewhere I'm missing something in the changes for offering arbitration and getting compensation picks. So...can someone tell me where I'm astray here?

My understanding of the old system and timeline: After the season, a team could offer a free agent arbitration. If they declined, they became a free agent (and the team would receive first round or sandwich picks depending on Type A or Type B status). If they accepted, THEN the team and the player would submit their salary number and there was a period where they could negotiate any deal with the player before the actual arbitration hearing. At the time of the hearing (assuming they hadn't come to an agreement on their own), the arbitrator picked one.

My understanding of the new system and timeline: After the season, a team can offer a free agent arbitration. If they decline an offer of ~$12M, then the offering team gets a compensation pick(s?). But...isn't the amount the team submits only available AFTER the decision is made to accept or decline? So I don't get how the amount is tied to whether or not they get compensation.

Does any of that make sense? Does anyone know how it works or where I'm missing something (that I'm guessing is obvious)? I suppose I could go try to find it myself, but I'll first attempt here to see if anyone knows.

You can find the information here: http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/info/cba.jsp Download the 2012-2016 basic agreement.

The gist (pp 84-89): In order to qualify for compensation, a team has to offer a free agent a one yr contract equal to the average of the 125 highest paid players from the preceeding season (I believe it was in the neighborhood of $12.4M this past offseason). If the player turns down that contract and signs with another team, his former team is entitled to a "sandwich pick" immediately after the first round. Sandwich picks are awarded based on reverse order of W/L percentage from the previous season.

Lots more detail and legalize there, but that's the much abridged version.

RE: Liriano...the Twins would need to offer him a contract in the neighborhood of $12.5M this offseason, and be turned down, to get one sandwich pick in the next rule 4 draft.

CDog
06-27-2012, 10:48 PM
You can find the information here: http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/info/cba.jsp Download the 2012-2016 basic agreement.

The gist (pp 84-89): In order to qualify for compensation, a team has to offer a free agent a one yr contract equal to the average of the 125 highest paid players from the preceeding season (I believe it was in the neighborhood of $12.4M this past offseason). If the player turns down that contract and signs with another team, his former team is entitled to a "sandwich pick" immediately after the first round. Sandwich picks are awarded based on reverse order of W/L percentage from the previous season.

Lots more detail and legalize there, but that's the much abridged version.

RE: Liriano...the Twins would need to offer him a contract in the neighborhood of $12.5M this offseason, and be turned down, to get one sandwich pick in the next rule 4 draft.

The legalese is pretty much what I was hoping to avoid. Hmmm. Your gist is about what I've heard, but I guess I don't get if the arbitration part is just gone now (for someone entering free agency)? Or...what? For instance, what if they just wanted to offer him $7M? Do they just make that offer and the player accepts or not?

USAFChief
06-27-2012, 11:47 PM
The legalese is pretty much what I was hoping to avoid. Hmmm. Your gist is about what I've heard, but I guess I don't get if the arbitration part is just gone now (for someone entering free agency)? Or...what? For instance, what if they just wanted to offer him $7M? Do they just make that offer and the player accepts or not?

Salary arbitration (See pg 17 in the CBA) is for players with between 3 and 6 yrs MLB service time (plus "super twos), and as far as I can tell, this hasn't changed other than a minor change to the definition of "super two." During this time, the player is "reserved" to their team and cannot become a free agent unless released by the team. Salary arbitration is at the discretion of the player, not the club...if a club wants to keep a player between years 3 and 6, they must agree to arb if the player requests. For players past 6 yrs service time, if a player wants to arbitrate, the club has to agree to the procedure. Arbitration is seldom used for players past 6 yrs.

Liriano is, I believe, a free agent at the end of this season. The Twins no longer hold his rights. Arbitration most likely isn't an issue, so yes, the Twins can make any offer they want (I don't believe this situation falls under the "maximum salary reduction" clause, see pg 12, since Liriano is not under "reserve" after this season.). Liriano can accept or decline.

In order to receive comp for Liriano, the Twins would have to make an offer as noted in the post above.

That's how I read it. Feel free to struggle through the legal mumbo jumbo if you want to confirm/deny.

jokin
06-28-2012, 12:10 AM
The legalese is pretty much what I was hoping to avoid. Hmmm. Your gist is about what I've heard, but I guess I don't get if the arbitration part is just gone now (for someone entering free agency)? Or...what? For instance, what if they just wanted to offer him $7M? Do they just make that offer and the player accepts or not?


They can offer him the $7M. Liriano is indeed, an unrestricted FA at the end of the season.

By my reading of the CBA and yes, there is a level of opaqueness in the legalese language, there is a certain period of time, about a week after the end of the World Series, the "dead period", where the soon-to-be FAs can be offered by the previous team the "qualifying-for-compensation contract number" and contacted by prospective teams without specific contract offering language, and then a follow-up 7-day period for the impending FA to consider accepting or rejecting the previous team's offer. This apparently is the procedure to determine whether or not the previous team is entitled to a comp pick. Once FA is official, the Twins could make the $7M offer. It's hard to imagine, given Liriano's erratic history, that anyone will offer that much without heavy incentives and other protections for the offering team.

diehardtwinsfan
06-28-2012, 07:34 AM
someone would overpay, though I suspect Francisco is going to go the Ed Jackson route this season... so if the Twins offer 12.4, he takes it.

CDog
06-28-2012, 09:16 AM
Salary arbitration (See pg 17 in the CBA) is for players with between 3 and 6 yrs MLB service time (plus "super twos), and as far as I can tell, this hasn't changed other than a minor change to the definition of "super two." During this time, the player is "reserved" to their team and cannot become a free agent unless released by the team. Salary arbitration is at the discretion of the player, not the club...if a club wants to keep a player between years 3 and 6, they must agree to arb if the player requests. For players past 6 yrs service time, if a player wants to arbitrate, the club has to agree to the procedure. Arbitration is seldom used for players past 6 yrs.

Liriano is, I believe, a free agent at the end of this season. The Twins no longer hold his rights. Arbitration most likely isn't an issue, so yes, the Twins can make any offer they want (I don't believe this situation falls under the "maximum salary reduction" clause, see pg 12, since Liriano is not under "reserve" after this season.). Liriano can accept or decline.

In order to receive comp for Liriano, the Twins would have to make an offer as noted in the post above.

That's how I read it. Feel free to struggle through the legal mumbo jumbo if you want to confirm/deny.

I think either I'm confusing some terminology or had misinterpreted something in the past. For instance, haven't the Twins offered arbitration to Pavano (before working out deals with him between the offering and when the hearing would have been)? Or wasn't there something like they had to offer one of the Orlandos arbitration with the wink-wink agreement that he wouldn't accept it so that the Twins would get the compensation pick? Maybe there was different system for guys who had already had a free agent contract and those that were first entering? I don't mean to beat a dead horse here (despite the fact that I likely am).

Rytwin
06-28-2012, 09:31 AM
I think either I'm confusing some terminology or had misinterpreted something in the past. For instance, haven't the Twins offered arbitration to Pavano (before working out deals with him between the offering and when the hearing would have been)? Or wasn't there something like they had to offer one of the Orlandos arbitration with the wink-wink agreement that he wouldn't accept it so that the Twins would get the compensation pick? Maybe there was different system for guys who had already had a free agent contract and those that were first entering? I don't mean to beat a dead horse here (despite the fact that I likely am).

I'm not sure what the rules are now, but in the past a team could offer arbitration to any player whose contract had just expired at the the end of the season.

The player's 3-6 years of service were called his "arbitration years" because if he did not reach a separate deal with the team he was required to go through arbitration if the team offered it--the player could not decline arbitration.

Once a player had 6 years of service, he could still be offered arbitration (and had to be if the team wanted to receive any compensatory draft picks if the player left in free agency), but the player had the option to decline, which happened quite often.

CDog
06-28-2012, 09:39 AM
Once a player had 6 years of service, he could still be offered arbitration (and had to be if the team wanted to receive any compensatory draft picks if the player left in free agency), but the player had the option to decline, which happened quite often.

This is the part I'm assuming changed. And I'm wondering the details of how. Is arbitration for players after 6 years gone? Just not connected to compensation picks? Other...?

diehardtwinsfan
06-28-2012, 10:10 AM
This is the part I'm assuming changed. And I'm wondering the details of how. Is arbitration for players after 6 years gone? Just not connected to compensation picks? Other...?

nope, still there... except that to get picks, the compensation amount needs to be around 12M. I can offer a scrub an arb award of 2M, but if the scrub leaves for greener pastures, I'm not getting a comp pick...

CDog
06-28-2012, 10:25 AM
nope, still there... except that to get picks, the compensation amount needs to be around 12M. I can offer a scrub an arb award of 2M, but if the scrub leaves for greener pastures, I'm not getting a comp pick...

But that's where the timing of things doesn't make sense to me. By the time the arbitration process gets to an offer amount ($12M or $2M or whatever it is), the player has already agreed to the arbitration process, which means he's NOT leaving for greener pastures. So there's nothing to be compensated for. That is, if my understanding is correct that it goes: team offers arbitration process, player accepts (or doesn't), THEN team and player submit their amounts (assuming offer of process was accepted).

mini_tb
06-28-2012, 10:58 AM
I can't help but feel if the Twins give Liriano away, this will be looked on as a David Ortiz situation a few years from now. The Twins had a guy with enormous talent on their hands, didn't appreciate what they had, incomprehensibly chose to spend money on Matthew Lecroy instead of Ortiz, and had egg on their face almost immediately.


This is just picking nits, but I believe the Twins let David Ortiz walk to make room for Doug Mientkiewicz.

SweetOne69
06-28-2012, 11:24 AM
But that's where the timing of things doesn't make sense to me. By the time the arbitration process gets to an offer amount ($12M or $2M or whatever it is), the player has already agreed to the arbitration process, which means he's NOT leaving for greener pastures. So there's nothing to be compensated for. That is, if my understanding is correct that it goes: team offers arbitration process, player accepts (or doesn't), THEN team and player submit their amounts (assuming offer of process was accepted).


You are correct in the timing. What has changed is that now when you offer a player FA Arbitration your offer is at least the average of the top 150 salaries.

Brock Beauchamp
06-28-2012, 11:33 AM
This is just picking nits, but I believe the Twins let David Ortiz walk to make room for Doug Mientkiewicz.

I think it had more to do with Matt LeCroy. Both were lumbering sluggers who couldn't play a lick of defense. Ortiz had injury troubles, LeCroy less service time. A bad decision but that ship has long sailed.

mini_tb
06-28-2012, 11:34 AM
How do the injuries to the Yankees lefty starters, Sabathia (groin) and Pettitte (ankle), affect Liriano's trade value? Freddy Garcia and David Phelps do not sound like a Yankees-like solution to me. Sabathia may only miss a few starts, but 6+ weeks on 245 year old Pettitte does not sound good.

The Braves as a trade partner also make me curious. The only lefty in their rotation, Mike Minor, has been flat out terrible, so I would think they would not mind trading for a southpaw starter. With Minor, Jurrjens, Delgado, and Teheran (in AAA) largely ineffective, and their best starter, Brandon Beachy, out for a year+ with TJ surgery, Frank Wren and company have got to be on the lookout for an impact starter or 2 to try to send Chipper Jones out in style.

In fact, the only reliable starters they have left are Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Hanson has had his shoulder woes last year, so he's not a given down the stretch. And Hudson's already been out with a bad back and a bad ankle this season.

I wonder if the Twins could manage to pry away 1 of Teheran, Minor, or Delgado in a Liriano trade... Any thoughts there?

The Braves also make an interesting trade target for the Twins because their centerfielder, Michael Bourn, is a free agent at the end of the season. His services will be costly to retain. He is a Scott Boras client, and he is likely to get too much money and too many years for an aging speed guy with fringy on base skills. Liberty Media keeps the Braves' payroll pretty low, and they don't seem to have much of a backup plan waiting in the wings to replace Bourn. Could they be interested in one of Span, Revere, or even Aaron Hicks as a CF replacement?

Thoughts on any of this?

StormJH1
06-28-2012, 11:57 AM
How do the injuries to the Yankees lefty starters, Sabathia (groin) and Pettitte (ankle), affect Liriano's trade value? Freddy Garcia and David Phelps do not sound like a Yankees-like solution to me. Sabathia may only miss a few starts, but 6+ weeks on 245 year old Pettitte does not sound good.



An interesting thought with the Yankees, except I think New York has probably learned by now to stay away from guys who exhibit any signs of being a headcase or having confidence problems. For example, there were some questions about how Zack Greinke would respond if he gave up 8 earned runs in a start and got destroyed by a Daily cover the next morning. Liriano, even in his GOOD years, was never an effective starter in September for AL Central pennant races, let along Yankees/Red Sox/Rays. Plus, if the Yankees really wanted him, there probably would have been other times they could have pursued him, and apparently haven't to any large degree.

I keep hearing about all these teams that need a center-fielder, and how Span is the top guy, but is he really? What about Peter Bourjos on the Angels? They have a terrible log-jam in the outfield, and Bourjos is the odd man out. He also just turned 25, is probably a better defensive center fielder than Span, and also a more reliable stolen base threat (Span looks like he's going to get picked off every time he's on base). True, Span is more of a ready-made leadoff hitter, but I think Bourjos fills a lot of those defensive concerns at what would likely be a more reasonable price, and he's younger and doesn't have the concussion issues.

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 01:04 PM
But that's where the timing of things doesn't make sense to me. By the time the arbitration process gets to an offer amount ($12M or $2M or whatever it is), the player has already agreed to the arbitration process, which means he's NOT leaving for greener pastures. So there's nothing to be compensated for. That is, if my understanding is correct that it goes: team offers arbitration process, player accepts (or doesn't), THEN team and player submit their amounts (assuming offer of process was accepted).

This is where terminology gets in the way (and I apologize if someone else has already made this, but I responded after enough comments with incorrect terminology were confusing folks). "Arbitration" to free agents is gone. Period. There is a qualifying offer now, which is basically accepted or denied, and that offer must be "at least" the amount of the average of the 125 highest paid players. It's a flat offer, not an arbitration-type offer. The player has an actual one-year contract offer in place. If the player accepts, he can play just for that contract, or he can negotiate further for a long-term deal with just that team. If he denies, he's open season for anyone, including his previous team.

The big thing everyone needs to be aware of is that any upcoming free agent will get MUCH, MUCH less in trade offers because no longer will a team be able to acquire a player mid-season and get a compensatory pick. The player must be on the team for the entire season in order to get any compensation pick, so a guy like Liriano that will be a free agent this year will get much, much less in trade than a guy like Garza who still has a full year of contract/arbitration left for a team to control and then get a pick.

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 01:10 PM
How do the injuries to the Yankees lefty starters, Sabathia (groin) and Pettitte (ankle), affect Liriano's trade value? Freddy Garcia and David Phelps do not sound like a Yankees-like solution to me. Sabathia may only miss a few starts, but 6+ weeks on 245 year old Pettitte does not sound good.

The Braves as a trade partner also make me curious. The only lefty in their rotation, Mike Minor, has been flat out terrible, so I would think they would not mind trading for a southpaw starter. With Minor, Jurrjens, Delgado, and Teheran (in AAA) largely ineffective, and their best starter, Brandon Beachy, out for a year+ with TJ surgery, Frank Wren and company have got to be on the lookout for an impact starter or 2 to try to send Chipper Jones out in style.

In fact, the only reliable starters they have left are Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Hanson has had his shoulder woes last year, so he's not a given down the stretch. And Hudson's already been out with a bad back and a bad ankle this season.

I wonder if the Twins could manage to pry away 1 of Teheran, Minor, or Delgado in a Liriano trade... Any thoughts there?

The Braves also make an interesting trade target for the Twins because their centerfielder, Michael Bourn, is a free agent at the end of the season. His services will be costly to retain. He is a Scott Boras client, and he is likely to get too much money and too many years for an aging speed guy with fringy on base skills. Liberty Media keeps the Braves' payroll pretty low, and they don't seem to have much of a backup plan waiting in the wings to replace Bourn. Could they be interested in one of Span, Revere, or even Aaron Hicks as a CF replacement?

Thoughts on any of this?

No way that Delgado or Teheran are part of any deal for Liriano. The Braves are VERY tight on funds, so it is highly doubtful they could afford to take on all of Liriano without some cash coming back in the deal. The Braves do have a good chunk of funds available for 2013 and beyond, but they also have one of the youngest rosters in all of MLB, so they will likely be doing some extending of current options before opening their checkbook in the offseason. Span would make a lot of sense in the offseason as a trade, and the Braves may even be looking to move a guy like Hanson in the right deal (if the Twins were looking more toward a front-end starter). For right now, Span is a tough sell midseason unless it's a very nice deal for the Braves in some way, shape, or form.

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 01:12 PM
I keep hearing about all these teams that need a center-fielder, and how Span is the top guy, but is he really? What about Peter Bourjos on the Angels? They have a terrible log-jam in the outfield, and Bourjos is the odd man out. He also just turned 25, is probably a better defensive center fielder than Span, and also a more reliable stolen base threat (Span looks like he's going to get picked off every time he's on base). True, Span is more of a ready-made leadoff hitter, but I think Bourjos fills a lot of those defensive concerns at what would likely be a more reasonable price, and he's younger and doesn't have the concussion issues.

Span would make a lot more sense for the Braves, at least because he's basically a lite version of what they'd be replacing - leadoff guy, excellent defense.

twinswon1991
06-28-2012, 01:27 PM
Span would make a lot more sense for the Braves, at least because he's basically a lite version of what they'd be replacing - leadoff guy, excellent defense.


Add Gerrardo Parra to Bourjos as tradeable CF that are better and or younger than Span. We need to temper our expectations in trading Span. I would be happy with an A ball hard throwing SP prospect as a return since it looks like the Twins are 3 YEARS from being competitive.

chopper0080
06-28-2012, 01:56 PM
A couple of points...

1: I highly doubt Liriano or his agent would accept an extention by the Twins. They see his value as rising right now, and pitchers tend to do very well in the free agent marketplace. Also, they know if the Twins don't trade him they are planning to make him a qualifying offer, so it's really a no lose situation from his standpoint.

2: As far as the return for Liriano, I think we have to realize the most likely option is probably a high end, low A pitcher or a mid range AA/AAA pitcher. I would be fine with either. We are rebuilding, and the last thing a rebuilding team should do is take a high doller risk on an inconsistant player rather than upgrading their minor league talent pool.

diehardtwinsfan
06-28-2012, 02:54 PM
This is where terminology gets in the way (and I apologize if someone else has already made this, but I responded after enough comments with incorrect terminology were confusing folks). "Arbitration" to free agents is gone. Period. There is a qualifying offer now, which is basically accepted or denied, and that offer must be "at least" the amount of the average of the 125 highest paid players. It's a flat offer, not an arbitration-type offer. The player has an actual one-year contract offer in place. If the player accepts, he can play just for that contract, or he can negotiate further for a long-term deal with just that team. If he denies, he's open season for anyone, including his previous team.

The big thing everyone needs to be aware of is that any upcoming free agent will get MUCH, MUCH less in trade offers because no longer will a team be able to acquire a player mid-season and get a compensatory pick. The player must be on the team for the entire season in order to get any compensation pick, so a guy like Liriano that will be a free agent this year will get much, much less in trade than a guy like Garza who still has a full year of contract/arbitration left for a team to control and then get a pick.

That all really depends if they are willing to keep that guy around... Let's pretend for a second that April didn't happen. If Liriano was like he is now all season long, I can pretty much guarantee you that whatever team has him at free agency would be more than happy to submit a qualifying offer. You are correct in that this can lower value, simply from the standpoint that teams don't have as much incentive to hold on to the guy if they don't plan on offering 12.4M or whatever it is... In Minnesota's case, they have the resources, so they can bluff... teams like KC and Pittsburg though do not.

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 03:07 PM
That all really depends if they are willing to keep that guy around... Let's pretend for a second that April didn't happen. If Liriano was like he is now all season long, I can pretty much guarantee you that whatever team has him at free agency would be more than happy to submit a qualifying offer. You are correct in that this can lower value, simply from the standpoint that teams don't have as much incentive to hold on to the guy if they don't plan on offering 12.4M or whatever it is... In Minnesota's case, they have the resources, so they can bluff... teams like KC and Pittsburg though do not.


The value in rentals in the past was that even if they didn't resign with you, you got two picks for them. Now a team trading for a rental gets no picks at all, because they cannot offer a qualifying offer if he's not on the team to start the season. So a rental player under the new CBA is very, very devalued in trades.

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 03:08 PM
Add Gerrardo Parra to Bourjos as tradeable CF that are better and or younger than Span. We need to temper our expectations in trading Span. I would be happy with an A ball hard throwing SP prospect as a return since it looks like the Twins are 3 YEARS from being competitive.

Okay, but neither of those guys would fit with the Braves whatsoever.

shs_59
06-28-2012, 03:13 PM
My DREAM scenerio:

Since we know they're always awfully interested. Seattle Mariners
No, they're not in contention this year.
But that doesn't mean they won't want him, Michael Pineda is a Yank, and hurt.

Nick Franklin their AA / AAA SS....... I'd take him and him alone for Liriano and, not Dozier, but maybe Casilla.

Do it TR see if they'll bite? Terry Ryan & F.O. Need to explore many many options out there just like this one, they're phone lines should be put to use.

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 03:18 PM
My DREAM scenerio:

Since we know they're always awfully interested. Seattle Mariners
No, they're not in contention this year.
But that doesn't mean they won't want him, Michael Pineda is a Yank, and hurt.

Nick Franklin their AA / AAA SS....... I'd take him and him alone for Liriano and, not Dozier, but maybe Casilla.

Do it TR see if they'll bite? Terry Ryan & F.O. Need to explore many many options out there just like this one, they're phone lines should be put to use.

The Mariners have the best group of minor league pitchers outside Arizona. No reason at all to consider Liriano, let alone send over anything of value.

SweetOne69
06-28-2012, 03:27 PM
A couple of points...

1: I highly doubt Liriano or his agent would accept an extention by the Twins. They see his value as rising right now, and pitchers tend to do very well in the free agent marketplace. Also, they know if the Twins don't trade him they are planning to make him a qualifying offer, so it's really a no lose situation from his standpoint.

I'm sure Liriano and his Agent are praying that the Twins make him a qualifying offer as he will accept it before the ink dries.

There is no way that the Twins are going to make Liriano a qualifying offer of $12M+.

twinswon1991
06-28-2012, 03:35 PM
Okay, but neither of those guys would fit with the Braves whatsoever.

Parra is cheaper and a better overall player than Span so I don't know why he wouldnt be a fit. Is it just because he isnt a full-time starter? Span would only be a defensive replacement for the snakes.

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 03:37 PM
Parra is cheaper and a better overall player than Span so I don't know why he wouldnt be a fit. Is it just because he isnt a full-time starter? Span would only be a defensive replacement for the snakes.

The Braves will be looking for a good defender who can leadoff. That's their main priority. Parra cannot leadoff, and neither can Bourjos. That's why neither would be a fit for the Braves, but Span would.

twinswon1991
06-28-2012, 04:24 PM
The Braves will be looking for a good defender who can leadoff. That's their main priority. Parra cannot leadoff, and neither can Bourjos. That's why neither would be a fit for the Braves, but Span would.


Sorry buddy but you apparently are not familiar with baseball outside of what the FSN homers spew. Go to fangraphs and compare them. Parra has a higher obp, more stolen bases and is a gold glove centerfielder not just a good one. Like I said Span is fine but he couldnt hold Parra' jock.

Add in the salary difference and concussion issues Parra is far more valuable.

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 04:44 PM
Sorry buddy but you apparently are not familiar with baseball outside of what the FSN homers spew. Go to fangraphs and compare them. Parra has a higher obp, more stolen bases and is a gold glove centerfielder not just a good one. Like I said Span is fine but he couldnt hold Parra' jock.

Add in the salary difference and concussion issues Parra is far more valuable.

LOL! My favorite team doesn't even play on FSN, so you may want to reconsider that statement. I've seen Parra for years. He's never won a Gold Glove as a CF. He looks amazing in left, and he's certainly above average in CF, but he's not THAT elite. Brett Gardner is a similar player. He looks elite in left, but he'd be simply an above-average CF. Span is a leadoff type of hitter. In the NL, Parra is a #2 or #8 hitter, not a leadoff type. Also, BRef's dWAR (which isn't perfect by any means) has Span as worth 2.3 WAR defensively the last two seasons while Parra has been worth 1.6 WAR in similar games. Span steals twice as many bases per 162 and has 20 points of OBP on Parra in their careers, so not sure what you're talking about. If you're enjoying small sample sizes, then sure, you can compare 3 months versus entire careers. They're similar value players, but Span is a better leadoff type.

twinswon1991
06-28-2012, 05:04 PM
You cant look at Spans peak years and compare them to the player he is today....not the same. SPAn is on the way down and Parra is rising. Span would not be a leadoff hitter on a good team team. Your logic in saying Span is the better leadoff hitter because he is doing it now is flawed. Gardy pencils him in there....big deal. Gardy used to bat Redmond 3RD beacause it was the "catchers spot".

biggentleben
06-28-2012, 05:21 PM
You cant look at Spans peak years and compare them to the player he is today....not the same. SPAn is on the way down and Parra is rising. Span would not be a leadoff hitter on a good team team. Your logic in saying Span is the better leadoff hitter because he is doing it now is flawed. Gardy pencils him in there....big deal. Gardy used to bat Redmond 3RD beacause it was the "catchers spot".

No response to the defense, huh?

I'm not assuming that he's a leadoff guy because Gardy puts him there, but you can assume that all you'd like. For as much attention as I pay to each Twins box score, he could be batting 9th for all I worry. I've seen what his numbers have been all season. For your comparison, THIS season, Parra and Span have identical 1.8 fWAR numbers.

You're obviously anti-Span, so I'll leave the back and forth at that, but you may be surprised how Span is valued around the league.

twinswon1991
06-28-2012, 06:04 PM
Span has value, they are basically equal except defense where Parra is superior. To other teams the age, contract, concussions etc are HUGE and make all the difference.

diehardtwinsfan
06-28-2012, 08:37 PM
The value in rentals in the past was that even if they didn't resign with you, you got two picks for them. Now a team trading for a rental gets no picks at all, because they cannot offer a qualifying offer if he's not on the team to start the season. So a rental player under the new CBA is very, very devalued in trades.

I missed that in the new CBA... good to know.

diehardtwinsfan
06-28-2012, 08:54 PM
SPAn is on the way down and Parra is rising. Span would not be a leadoff hitter on a good team team. Your logic in saying Span is the better leadoff hitter because he is doing it now is flawed. Gardy pencils him in there....big deal. Gardy used to bat Redmond 3RD beacause it was the "catchers spot".

Did he beat you up and steal your lunch money as a kid?

1) He's not "on his way down", he's in his prime. He's 28 years old, established, and having a pretty good year. Yes, Parra is 3 years younger, but that makes him more expensive too.

2) He gives teams something that's hard to find, and Parra does not. (good leadoff guy)

3) He plays well above average defense at a critical defensive position. Parra does this as well.

4) He's also a above average hitter for the same position, as is Parra, but he's lacking the leadoff OBP skills Span has.

5) Both are cheap, though Span is cost controlled.

I'm not saying that Parra isn't valuable, but let's be realistic... this is hardly a slam dunk. Parra has been in the league one less year, so it isn't as if Parra is somehow massively cheaper... He's just a year behind in the arb process, and his main comparable is likely Denard Span. They are very similar players. Due to his age and this little problem that he Arizona franchize is on the rise and that they might still consider themselves as contenders, Parra is going to cost a lot more, and he has more question marks to go with it. I doubt he gets moved anytime soon unless AZ gets an absolute haul.

USAFChief
06-28-2012, 09:09 PM
A couple of points...

1: I highly doubt Liriano or his agent would accept an extention by the Twins. They see his value as rising right now, and pitchers tend to do very well in the free agent marketplace. Also, they know if the Twins don't trade him they are planning to make him a qualifying offer, so it's really a no lose situation from his standpoint.

2: As far as the return for Liriano, I think we have to realize the most likely option is probably a high end, low A pitcher or a mid range AA/AAA pitcher. I would be fine with either. We are rebuilding, and the last thing a rebuilding team should do is take a high doller risk on an inconsistant player rather than upgrading their minor league talent pool.

I, on the otherhand, think Liriano or his agent would jump at something like 3/$24. He's only 6 six starts into a return from losing his starting spot. He wasn't very good last year. Were he to implode again (and even I, someone who wants him signed to an extension, acknowledge that's entirely possible), he wouldn't sniff anything like those numbers. A 3 yr extension at around these numbers seems to me a pretty fair offer from the Twins, and balances the risk slightly in Liriano's favor. If he harnesses his talent, he'll be underpaid a little. On the otherhand, if he reverts back to awful, he's gotten one pretty decent payday that sets him up for life, and the Twins are stuck with a bad contract, but one that doesn't cripple them.

But it has to be done now, for both sides. If you wait till winter, one side or the other ain't gonna like that deal.

TheLeviathan
06-28-2012, 10:29 PM
So you believe that players approach free agency with the mindset of "Geez, I'm a sucky player just waiting to happen...better cash in quick!" That's the basis of your Liriano opinion? Because that's essentially what you're saying here. He'd accept the offer you propose because he and his agent know how possible/likely it is he'll be awful?

I think I'll refer you back to this post's Edwin Jackson comp. Seems appropriate as one of many, many examples of how naive that thinking is, especially considering how many players walk into free agency believing they're much more valuable than they really are.

USAFChief
06-28-2012, 11:27 PM
So you believe that players approach free agency with the mindset of "Geez, I'm a sucky player just waiting to happen...better cash in quick!" That's the basis of your Liriano opinion? Because that's essentially what you're saying here. He'd accept the offer you propose because he and his agent know how possible/likely it is he'll be awful?

I believe Albert Pujols and Francisco Liriano probably have different expectations for what might await them in free agency, yes.

You, on the other hand, in the space of 2 months seem to have gone from "Liriano is worthless, dump him for anything you can get," to "why would he accept $24M guaranteed?".

Because that's essentially what you're saying here.

Riverbrian
06-28-2012, 11:42 PM
I believe Albert Pujols and Francisco Liriano probably have different expectations for what might await them in free agency, yes.

You, on the other hand, in the space of 2 months seem to have gone from "Liriano is worthless, dump him for anything you can get," to "why would he accept $24M guaranteed?".

Because that's essentially what you're saying here.

Hey Chief... You typed 2 months... You meant 2 pages I assume.

USAFChief
06-29-2012, 12:32 AM
Hey Chief... You typed 2 months... You meant 2 pages I assume.

+1. 10char

glunn
06-29-2012, 12:46 AM
Potential aces are rare and hard to acquire. It seems to me that Chief's idea would make sense for both sides. I would prefer 2/$12 to 3/$24, but I don't think that 3/$24 would be ridiculous.

From Liriano's point of view, there is a risk of injury and a risk of not doing well for the balance of this season. In either of these events, he could end up with much less than 2/$12. Or Liriano could be light out the rest of this season, in which case he would have given up an opportunity to make a lot more.

From the Twins point of view, they might get an ace at a bargain price or they might get another Nick Blackburn type outcome.

This is how deals get made in the business world when there is uncertainty -- both sides meet in the middle based on rational evaluations of their upsides and downsides. Considering the value of an ace (especially on the postseason), it seems like a risk that the Twins should consider. And considering that a shoulder injury could cause Liriano's best offer as a free agent to be 0/$0, he and his agent would be fools not to at least listen.

TheLeviathan
06-29-2012, 07:38 AM
I believe Albert Pujols and Francisco Liriano probably have different expectations for what might await them in free agency, yes.

You, on the other hand, in the space of 2 months seem to have gone from "Liriano is worthless, dump him for anything you can get," to "why would he accept $24M guaranteed?".

Because that's essentially what you're saying here.

Mighty fine scarecrow Dorothy. Just because we know he's worthless, doesn't mean he will. Free agency is littered with guys that arrogantly thought they were worth more than they were. The only reason it "makes sense" for both sides to sign this kind of a deal is because you're projecting a rational, balanced take on to Liriano.

Players imagine their own worth much higher than is deserved - and almost always higher than hope-filled message board scenarios. My opinion hasn't changed at all - dump him in July. His career as a Twin is done and thankfully so. I'd prefer not to toss three year extensions to guys that are in the bottom ten of starting pitching as often as he has been. The pipe-dream "ace" stuff is pretty silly when you take the time to look at 2009 and 2011. Hell, 2012 too, even with this nice run.

twinswon1991
06-29-2012, 08:14 AM
If Liriano's agent allows him to resign with the Twins he is a moron. He should take less money and go to a team with a decent pitching coach. Look at all the guys with less talent than Frankie who have left Anderson to get realcoaching to prosper. A Duncan, Maddox, Cooper type coach could turn Frankie into a 15 mil a year pitcher over 4 years.

Also, why take the risk of working with clueless medical staff should he have even some minor pain? He is looking at one more nice contract in his career and he cant afford to blowing due to an assessment by Dr. Larry, Curley or Moe.

Brock Beauchamp
06-29-2012, 08:28 AM
Look at all the guys with less talent than Frankie who have left Anderson to get realcoaching to prosper.

And who might these people be?

Oh, right. Eric Milton, Kevin Slowey, Joe Mays, Carlos Silva, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Mark Redman... They all lit up the world after leaving the Twins.

Jesse Crain was good with the Twins once he started throwing harder again. That continued after his signing with the Sox. Lohse was an up-and-down pitcher with the Twins. He's a marginally better up-and-down pitcher since that point... In the National League.

You've got RA Dickey and...

RA Dickey. A journeyman who bounced between so many teams that it's obvious something just clicked with him one day and he suddenly figured out the knuckleball, an almost unteachable pitch.

twinswon1991
06-29-2012, 08:54 AM
You can build a decent rotation right now using guys that Andy couldnt help who went on to much better success elsewhere:

Dicky, Lohse, Humber, Garza, even gawd awful Marquis found a coach to fix a flaw in his delivery where he may stick in the bigs and earn money the rest of the year.

CDog
06-29-2012, 09:04 AM
RA Dickey. A journeyman who bounced between so many teams that it's obvious something just clicked with him one day and he suddenly figured out the knuckleball, an almost unteachable pitch.

I've wondered a few times over the last couple months as he's been lighting up the world if it's closer to what you describe or was more of a gradual thing that just took him time and reps and tinkering to pefect. I saw they did a feature on him on ESPN recently where it looked like he was talking a lot about how he throws it, etc, but I was somewhere with picture but no sound. Did anyone see that and did it shed any light?

Apologies for any thread hijacking.

Brock Beauchamp
06-29-2012, 09:04 AM
You can build a decent rotation right now using guys that Andy couldnt help who went on to much better success elsewhere:

Dicky, Lohse, Humber, Garza, even gawd awful Marquis found a coach to fix a flaw in his delivery where he may stick in the bigs and earn money the rest of the year.

Philip Humber pitched 20 innings over two seasons with Minnesota. Yeah, damn Anderson for not doing more with the kid. Wait, what?

Garza was a good pitcher with the Twins. He had a 117 ERA+ the year he was traded. His career ERA+? 109.

Dickey was an aberration. Anyone with an objective viewpoint can see that. He struggled with how many teams before figuring it out with the Mets?

Lohse has had a marginal career as a decent middle-to-back of the rotation NL starter. He's not any better away from the Twins than he was with them. With the Twins, he had almost exactly a 100 ERA+. His career ERA+ is 96.

Jason Marquis has pitched 26 innings for the Padres.

You're not very good at this.

Brock Beauchamp
06-29-2012, 09:07 AM
I've wondered a few times over the last couple months as he's been lighting up the world if it's closer to what you describe or was more of a gradual thing that just took him time and reps and tinkering to pefect. I saw they did a feature on him on ESPN recently where it looked like he was talking a lot about how he throws it, etc, but I was somewhere with picture but no sound. Did anyone see that and did it shed any light?

Apologies for any thread hijacking.

Probably six of one, half dozen of the other. He's been good for the Mets for what, 2 1/2 seasons now? Knuckleballers are fickle beasts. Most don't ever figure it out. Dickey did. It's hard to give the Mets much credit for that or blame any previous teams for not pulling it off.

CDog
06-29-2012, 09:38 AM
Probably six of one, half dozen of the other. He's been good for the Mets for what, 2 1/2 seasons now? Knuckleballers are fickle beasts. Most don't ever figure it out. Dickey did. It's hard to give the Mets much credit for that or blame any previous teams for not pulling it off.

Agree on all counts. Has been more of a curiosity of how exactly the evolution took place because it's rather a fantastic story (probably at least in part because for some reason I can't put my finger on given the limited information, I always felt like I liked him as a person).

twinswon1991
06-29-2012, 10:16 AM
Philip Humber pitched 20 innings over two seasons with Minnesota. Yeah, damn Anderson for not doing more with the kid. Wait, what?

Garza was a good pitcher with the Twins. He had a 117 ERA+ the year he was traded. His career ERA+? 109.

Dickey was an aberration. Anyone with an objective viewpoint can see that. He struggled with how many teams before figuring it out with the Mets?

Lohse has had a marginal career as a decent middle-to-back of the rotation NL starter. He's not any better away from the Twins than he was with them. With the Twins, he had almost exactly a 100 ERA+. His career ERA+ is 96.

Jason Marquis has pitched 26 innings for the Padres.

You're not very good at this.

Except for Garza all of these guys looked to be headed out pf baseball when Andy was done with them. Name one SP he has coached up? Thank goodness Diamond was sent to AAA to get fixed and good thing Frankie went back to the slider and old arm slot despite Andy's wishes

Brock Beauchamp
06-29-2012, 10:26 AM
Except for Garza all of these guys looked to be headed out pf baseball when Andy was done with them. Name one SP he has coached up? Thank goodness Diamond was sent to AAA to get ixed and good thing Frankie went back to the slider and old arm slot despite Andy's wishes

Andy never had Humber in the first place. 20 innings. That's what he pitched with Minnesota. Blame the front office all you want but Anderson cannot be blamed for Humber. And let's not overlook the fact that one Mr. Philip Humber has been absolutely awful this season.

Lohse did not look like he was on his way out of baseball. In his last full season before the trade, he had an ERA+ of 106. That's quite a bit better than his career average. Yeah, he was bad right before the trade but he had only logged 60 innings that year. He performed even worse than that season in 2010 with St. Louis. He's an up-and-down pitcher who is basically the same guy away from Minnesota that he was with Minnesota.

I'm not the one claiming Anderson is God's gift to pitching. You're the one claiming that he's awful. I don't have to show examples where he's taken a pitcher off the scrap heap (Burton), whereas you have to back up the claim that a lengthy list of pitchers have left Minnesota and achieved greatness (or even mediocrity).

Except you can't do that. Because it's not true.

biggentleben
06-29-2012, 10:58 AM
Agree on all counts. Has been more of a curiosity of how exactly the evolution took place because it's rather a fantastic story (probably at least in part because for some reason I can't put my finger on given the limited information, I always felt like I liked him as a person).

Not to further the hijacking or anything, but read his book, and you'll very quickly figure out why you like him as a person. He is a very likable person.

Brock Beauchamp
06-29-2012, 11:00 AM
Not to further the hijacking or anything, but read his book, and you'll very quickly figure out why you like him as a person. He is a very likable person.

Plus, his name is RA Dickey. Who doesn't love a guy named RA Dickey?

USAFChief
06-29-2012, 01:07 PM
Mighty fine scarecrow Dorothy. Just because we know he's worthless, doesn't mean he will. Free agency is littered with guys that arrogantly thought they were worth more than they were. The only reason it "makes sense" for both sides to sign this kind of a deal is because you're projecting a rational, balanced take on to Liriano.

Players imagine their own worth much higher than is deserved - and almost always higher than hope-filled message board scenarios. My opinion hasn't changed at all - dump him in July. His career as a Twin is done and thankfully so. I'd prefer not to toss three year extensions to guys that are in the bottom ten of starting pitching as often as he has been. The pipe-dream "ace" stuff is pretty silly when you take the time to look at 2009 and 2011. Hell, 2012 too, even with this nice run.

I see your point. The Twins are so loaded with starting pitching talent at every level, they should endeavor to rid themselves of some of it at any cost.

BTW...Liriano is easily the Twins second best starter in 2012, even with his horrendous start.

TheLeviathan
06-29-2012, 01:13 PM
I see your point. The Twins are so loaded with starting pitching talent at every level, they should endeavor to rid themselves of some of it at any cost.

BTW...Liriano is easily the Twins second best starter in 2012, even with his horrendous start.

Yeah, our pitching is bad. I can see your point - let's toss a couple ten million dollars at one of the key cogs in that awful portion of our team. Makes sense.

I'm sure his recent past performances indicate your position better. Right?

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-29-2012, 01:15 PM
Philip Humber pitched 20 innings over two seasons with Minnesota. Yeah, damn Anderson for not doing more with the kid. Wait, what?

Garza was a good pitcher with the Twins. He had a 117 ERA+ the year he was traded. His career ERA+? 109.

Dickey was an aberration. Anyone with an objective viewpoint can see that. He struggled with how many teams before figuring it out with the Mets?

Lohse has had a marginal career as a decent middle-to-back of the rotation NL starter. He's not any better away from the Twins than he was with them. With the Twins, he had almost exactly a 100 ERA+. His career ERA+ is 96.

Jason Marquis has pitched 26 innings for the Padres.

You're not very good at this.

Are we talking about the same Phillip Humber that has a 6.01 ERA this year? Yes, damn the Twins for not teaching him that!

Dickey shouldn't be in the conversation at all, its literally a once in a lifetime scenario and he was a emergency starter for a playoff team when he was with the Twins, there was literally no space for him. A rebuilding team like the Mets did have space for him eventually, then magically he figured out how to master the knuckleball. It's a great baseball story, and the Twins can't take any blame for letting him go at the time. It's just a case of wrong place/wrong time for them.

Marquis sucks and is a 5th starter for a NL team like he has always been. His results in the AL while disappointing were not shocking.

Lohse is an NL baby, don't make me post the NL/AL pitching comic again.

70charger
06-29-2012, 01:44 PM
Philip Humber pitched 20 innings over two seasons with Minnesota. Yeah, damn Anderson for not doing more with the kid. Wait, what?

Garza was a good pitcher with the Twins. He had a 117 ERA+ the year he was traded. His career ERA+? 109.

Dickey was an aberration. Anyone with an objective viewpoint can see that. He struggled with how many teams before figuring it out with the Mets?

Lohse has had a marginal career as a decent middle-to-back of the rotation NL starter. He's not any better away from the Twins than he was with them. With the Twins, he had almost exactly a 100 ERA+. His career ERA+ is 96.

Jason Marquis has pitched 26 innings for the Padres.

You're not very good at this.


No, he's not good at this. Read his past posts, and it becomes clear that he despises the Twins. Don't feed the trolls.

chopper0080
06-29-2012, 04:01 PM
I see your point. The Twins are so loaded with starting pitching talent at every level, they should endeavor to rid themselves of some of it at any cost.

BTW...Liriano is easily the Twins second best starter in 2012, even with his horrendous start.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. That is what not trading and re-signing Liriano would be. He has always been inconsistent, why you would want to invest more money into a car that may or may not start on any given day is beyond me.