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Curt
06-20-2012, 04:05 PM
Nishioka was a career .293 hitter in Japan and won a batting title there in his final season. He was reputed to be one of the top fielding shortstops there. Wouldn't he still have value there? Even now?

The Twins would have to eat a large portion of his salary but why wouldn't a team in Japan take him off the Twins' hands and absorb a portion of that salary? Top players there make up to $5 million per year. Perhaps someone would take him for $1 million?

Does this ever happen? You would think Nishioka, himself, would find value in getting back to Japan where he could continue his career. In the US, it is hard to imagine him having a major league career.

Anyone have any contacts in Japan? :D

PS - I feel bad for Nishioka's translator. What a gig that was, sitting in MLB dugout every game.

ashburyjohn
06-20-2012, 04:13 PM
I suspect that over in Japan the opportunities are not wide open - recall the lengthy negotiation period just to get rights to work out a contract with the player. Probably he can only be offered back to the original team there, and the Twins thus have zero leverage. You're right that maybe a $1M figure would be interesting to the Japanese team, but maybe (to resort to an Asian meme) the Twins aren't ready to lose face yet.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-20-2012, 04:45 PM
I'd be willing to eat the entire contract if we could send Bill Smith to Japan with him.

glanzer
06-20-2012, 04:53 PM
I had the same thought... isn't Japan's professional league a step up from AAA in the US? Why not admit it was a failure and get out of the contract and go back to Japan.

spideyo
06-20-2012, 05:14 PM
Just out of curiosity, what do you guys think is the biggest reason he hasn't panned? Different style of play, heightened competition, language barrier? Slightly different sized ball? Two-year jet lag?

powrwrap
06-20-2012, 05:22 PM
Just out of curiosity, what do you guys think is the biggest reason he hasn't panned? Different style of play, heightened competition, language barrier? Slightly different sized ball? Two-year jet lag?

He isn't a very good player. His fundamentals are all wrong. Look at his batting stance/swing. He steps out, transfers his weight to his front foot. Look at his footwork in the field, it's just plain wrong. He fields grounders with one hand, for gosh sakes! I don't know what the Twins were thinking when they signed him.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-20-2012, 05:30 PM
I had the same thought... isn't Japan's professional league a step up from AAA in the US? Why not admit it was a failure and get out of the contract and go back to Japan.
I have heard it compared to somewhere between AA/AAA for what its worth.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-20-2012, 05:31 PM
He isn't a very good player. His fundamentals are all wrong. Look at his batting stance/swing. He steps out, transfers his weight to his front foot. Look at his footwork in the field, it's just plain wrong. He fields grounders with one hand, for gosh sakes! I don't know what the Twins were thinking when they signed him.

He had one fluke season at the plate in an otherwise very mediocre career, however I am pretty surprised that he has been THIS awful. At worst I figured he would be a decent Util player in the majors. This is just pathetic.

IdahoPilgrim
06-20-2012, 05:33 PM
If I remember the discussion from last year, pitchers over here throw harder in general than over in Japan - he had a hard time adjusting to 90+ mph fastballs. It also sounded like they were less aggressive on the basepath, so he wasn't prepared for that - hence being in the wrong place leading to a broken leg.

And, I think you have to chalk part of it up to bad scouting, too. $5M is not a lot of money in today's terms, but nobody except the Twins was willing to pay that - turns out everybody else was right.

greengoblinrulz
06-20-2012, 05:37 PM
MN can get rid of him if they want. Easiest way to get him to a buyout is to just DFA him. Nobody will claim him & knowing he's not on 40 man roster with no shot at re-reaching majors will make him more willing to head home.
After this yr, Chris Hermann, Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson all need to be added to 40 man & he will be a casualty.

IdahoPilgrim
06-20-2012, 10:00 PM
My guess is they'll keep him around - they're stuck with his salary unless some team wants to trade for him, and while he wasn't the middle infielder we thought we were getting, it sounds like he's making progress. All it takes is one or two injuries (Dozier, Caroll, Casilla, etc) and he might be back in the picture.

Cody Christie
06-20-2012, 10:06 PM
He did help start a rally in the ninth inning tonight for Rochester with a double. But his numbers at Triple-A are still not very good...

twinzgrl
06-20-2012, 10:15 PM
His failure to perform was just one of many horrendous things that went wrong last year for the Twins. I wish him the best but I think he'll be back in Japan after this season.

one_eyed_jack
06-20-2012, 10:37 PM
It's easy to Monday morning quarterback this move, but I'm good with the gamble. Yeah, we lost this one, but I'd rather see a team that takes risks in an effort to improve than one that either stands pat in hopes that what it has is good enough (or makes a bunch of Tony Bautista-type low-risk, low-reward signings.)

Better to swing for the fences with the game on the line than get caught looking with the bat on your shoulder.

snepp
06-20-2012, 10:41 PM
I don't care that he sucks, I'm just pissed that signing him meant they "needed" to ship off Hardy.

ashburyjohn
06-20-2012, 11:09 PM
It's easy to Monday morning quarterback this move

I do not have the skills to scout any player. But it's not Monday morning quarterbacking, or second guessing, to say that this was a massive failure on the part of the scout or scouts who said "Yes. This guy has what it takes to help us."

It's good to swing for the fences sometimes, but not with your eyes closed, and this one pretty clearly was like that.

Bark's Lounge
06-20-2012, 11:21 PM
What did the Twins sign him for? 9M over 3 years? If that is the case, what? we owe him about 4.5M remaining on his contract. ****, set Nishioka free. He will never play for us again or in MLB and is taking up a 40 man roster spot - choking up 4.5M is a lot better than what the Cubs have going on for them with Alphonso Soriano. It could be worse for the Twins.

IdahoPilgrim
06-21-2012, 07:59 AM
What did the Twins sign him for? 9M over 3 years? If that is the case, what? we owe him about 4.5M remaining on his contract. ****, set Nishioka free. He will never play for us again or in MLB and is taking up a 40 man roster spot - choking up 4.5M is a lot better than what the Cubs have going on for them with Alphonso Soriano. It could be worse for the Twins.

We don't need that 40-man roster slot right now - we're already 2 under limit. And if injuries happen, he is one of two middle infielders at Rochester (the other is Floriman) who have played regularly and could possibly step up. I think they'll keep him for the season, as injury cover, and then they can release him at the end of the year, if they need the 40-man slot for someone else then. Plus, Rochester needs decent players too, and Nishioka is holding his own there if not really improving. The PDC expires after this year, and the Twins want to preserve that working relationship, at least until that is resolved. Bad enough that we took all their starting pitching...:)

Curt
06-21-2012, 08:19 AM
I was thinking this would be a win-win-win. Twins save a mil or two. Japanese team gets established starter. Nishi gets out of the minors and back to the (relative) big time. No one can be happy as things are.

Brock Beauchamp
06-21-2012, 08:24 AM
I was thinking this would be a win-win-win. Twins save a mil or two. Japanese team gets established starter. Nishi gets out of the minors and back to the (relative) big time. No one can be happy as things are.

It makes sense to me. It's not as if the situation could really get any worse, could it?

jlovren
06-21-2012, 08:49 AM
I had already forgotten about his existence, thanks for reminding me....

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-21-2012, 08:55 AM
It's easy to Monday morning quarterback this move, but I'm good with the gamble. Yeah, we lost this one, but I'd rather see a team that takes risks in an effort to improve than one that either stands pat in hopes that what it has is good enough (or makes a bunch of Tony Bautista-type low-risk, low-reward signings.)

Better to swing for the fences with the game on the line than get caught looking with the bat on your shoulder.

The problem with over spending for a turd like Nishioka is the Twins already had a perfectly fine SS on the roster, that is the most frustrating. If they wanted to go make a high risk move then they should have tried to bring in a pitcher or a player that filled a need at the time.

Brock Beauchamp
06-21-2012, 08:59 AM
The problem with over spending for a turd like Nishioka is the Twins already had a perfectly fine SS on the roster, that is the most frustrating. If they wanted to go make a high risk move then they should have tried to bring in a pitcher or a player that filled a need at the time.

Jesus, Dave... JJ Hardy hits way too many homeruns to play shortstop. Everybody knows that.

cr9617
06-21-2012, 09:50 AM
Nishi isn't even worth discussing at this point.

Musk21
06-21-2012, 02:54 PM
Nishi isn't even worth discussing at this point.

He still counts another 1.5 million this year and another 3 million next year towards the payroll, so yes, unfortunately he is still part of the discussion.

jokin
06-21-2012, 04:32 PM
It's easy to Monday morning quarterback this move, but I'm good with the gamble. Yeah, we lost this one, but I'd rather see a team that takes risks in an effort to improve than one that either stands pat in hopes that what it has is good enough (or makes a bunch of Tony Bautista-type low-risk, low-reward signings.)

Better to swing for the fences with the game on the line than get caught looking with the bat on your shoulder.

The Twins organization was making excuses for the guy's incompetent level of play from the day he took the field in spring training ( I believe that's called a "tell"). Nishi's biggest break of 2011 was when he broke his leg. That enabled the FO to extend the pretense that they had a bona-fide major league middle infielder, meanwhile they put their bold gamble on hold, hoping to draw an inside straight, all the while utilizing a grand bluff on the public that it somehow would all work out, only to continue the excuses and double-down on the stupid with the move to SS!- where he was even more exposed- until finally Gardy was allowed to admit he was busted and folded his hand.

At least Hardy could fulfill your dream and actually swing for the fences with the game on the line- with a decent chance to roll a 7, whereas Nishi's fractured swing always seemd to shoot snake-eyes.

spideyo
06-21-2012, 06:32 PM
Yes the Nishioka trade has turned out to be an utter complete failure, but honestly, I don't know that Hardy would have stayed wether they got Nishi or not. As I recall, there were rumors that he would be leaving the team before rumors started that Nishioka might be coming to us. Hardy didn't exactly do a great job with Twins in 2010 either. He was coming off the worst season of his career, and didn't improve all that much at the plate and actually did WORSE in the field. He hit 6 homers that year. In 2010, Plouffe was still considered a SS and hit 15 HR's in the minors, and 2 HR's in only 22 games with the Twins. My guess is that had Nishi not been signed, Plouffe would have come to ST battling for a starting spot in the IF and Hardy would still have been traded.

The Greatest Poster Alive
06-21-2012, 07:04 PM
The Twins absolutely failed on this signing... but I hope it doesn't scare them away from Japan for good. Yu Darvish is evidence that talent can come out of that league.

I really like the extra emphasis international signings have taken since the building of target field. One of the less publicized benefits of the extra revenue.

I don't think the Metrodome era Twins take the risk they did on Sano.

USAFChief
06-21-2012, 07:46 PM
Yes the Nishioka trade has turned out to be an utter complete failure, but honestly, I don't know that Hardy would have stayed wether they got Nishi or not. As I recall, there were rumors that he would be leaving the team before rumors started that Nishioka might be coming to us. Hardy didn't exactly do a great job with Twins in 2010 either. He was coming off the worst season of his career, and didn't improve all that much at the plate and actually did WORSE in the field. He hit 6 homers that year. In 2010, Plouffe was still considered a SS and hit 15 HR's in the minors, and 2 HR's in only 22 games with the Twins. My guess is that had Nishi not been signed, Plouffe would have come to ST battling for a starting spot in the IF and Hardy would still have been traded.

1. There was no "Nishioka trade." He was signed as a free agent after the Twins won bidding rights.
2. "Rumors?" The only rumors were coming from the Twins. Hardy was in his last yr of arb eligibility in 2011 and was under team control. WTF are you talking about?
3. Hardy hit .268/.320/.394 for the Twins. Not great, but pretty damn solid for a SS. In the second half, when he was over his injury, he put up a .304/.363/.442 line in over 200 PAs.
4. Hardy absolutely did NOT do "worse" in the field. Very solid SS.

Other than missing on virtually every "fact," nice post.

glunn
06-21-2012, 10:44 PM
I would hope that the Twins would at least explore whether they could save some money by sending Nishi back to Japan. This could be a win-win for everyone.

jctwins
06-21-2012, 10:49 PM
It's refreshing to see JJ Hardy threads again. Perhaps the good old days aren't so far away after all. Would Nick care to join in this discussion? I see an Orlando Hudson comment in your future!

one_eyed_jack
06-22-2012, 12:08 AM
JJ Hardy is a nice player but I think the gushing over him is a bit excessive. You'd think we were talking about the second coming of Ernie Banks here.

He had the power surge last year, but his numbers so far this year are pretty similar to Doumit's. And for good reason, I don't see a whole lot of gushing over Doumit.


The Nishioka issue aside, I'd rather be developing Dozier than overpaying Hardy.
.

Highabove
06-22-2012, 01:17 AM
I still wonder, who in the organization was responsible for recommending Nishioka. Its one thing to miss on draft picks and prospects but the scouting on Nishi was absolute incompetence. Is this person or persons, still with us? Bill Smith went on advice and recommendations. I will not point the finger torwards him on this one.

PseudoSABR
06-22-2012, 01:29 AM
I vaguely recall a named scout connected to Nishi. There was (evidently and obviously) a glowing scouting recommendation for Nishi internal to the Front Office. I wonder if that scout still works for the Twins.

Nick Nelson
06-22-2012, 02:12 AM
I vaguely recall a named scout connected to Nishi. There was (evidently and obviously) a glowing scouting recommendation for Nishi internal to the Front Office. I wonder if that scout still works for the Twins.

Actually I remember coming across a copy of the scouting report on Nishioka (it was floating around online at some point, I think). It really wasn't that complimentary. Basically said he had the tools to be maybe a decent MLB regular, not a star. Clearly even that proved to be inaccurate, but the Twins must have been going off something other than straight scouting input to make this decision.

Highabove
06-22-2012, 02:27 AM
I vaguely recall a named scout connected to Nishi. There was (evidently and obviously) a glowing scouting recommendation for Nishi internal to the Front Office. I wonder if that scout still works for the Twins.

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glunn
06-22-2012, 03:00 AM
Maybe someone should have read this scout's report: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/thoughts-on-nishioka/

MWLFan
06-22-2012, 07:26 AM
Wasn't the whole Nishi thing supposed to bring in $$$'s from Japan as the folks there got to see one of their stars play on the big stage. Didn't the Twins envision thousands of Nishi jersey being sold in Toyko? Broadcasting the beauty of Target Field to all those possible customers who might swing by as they visited the Mall of America? I have the funny feeling there was a money component to this that had nothing to do with baseball. I believe that part of this was expanding the Twins brand past the United States. When baseball reality meets marketing plans it is not always pretty.

CDog
06-22-2012, 09:08 AM
JJ Hardy is a nice player but I think the gushing over him is a bit excessive. You'd think we were talking about the second coming of Ernie Banks here.

He had the power surge last year, but his numbers so far this year are pretty similar to Doumit's. And for good reason, I don't see a whole lot of gushing over Doumit.


The Nishioka issue aside, I'd rather be developing Dozier than overpaying Hardy.
.

Agree that Hardy has become one of those players that people like to inflate from reality to fit their narrative that the Twins are stupid and dumb and all the other teams are smart. That said, I didn't really get why he was let go when he was. And also, Doumit doesn't play a lot of shortstop, so that's probably not a great comparison. And on the opposite side of that, I think Doumit has been given a fair amount of credit for his contributions this year. As may be clear, I don't really have a point here!

JB_Iowa
06-22-2012, 09:22 AM
I still wonder, who in the organization was responsible for recommending Nishioka. Its one thing to miss on draft picks and prospects but the scouting on Nishi was absolute incompetence. Is this person or persons, still with us? Bill Smith went on advice and recommendations. I will not point the finger torwards him on this one.

I will probably always wonder about this as well. Was it a failure of the scouting department? Did marketing concerns override scouting reservations? Did Dave St. Peter as team Pres (and marketing strategist) play a role in the baseball side of the operations in this instance?

I'm sure we'll never know. Personally I'm convinced that it was a complete organizational failure (and that, for that reason, no one will ever have to take responsibility). I suspect that the scouting reports were "just good enough" that the final decision-makers allowed marketing considerations to overcome any reservations that may have been in those reports (in a way that they wouldn't have done if they player had been from the U.S.) This was also done at the time when they were riding high on new TF revenues -- allowing them to take a risk that they wouldn't have taken earlier.

But I doubt we'll ever know for sure.

Brock Beauchamp
06-22-2012, 09:23 AM
Agree that Hardy has become one of those players that people like to inflate from reality to fit their narrative that the Twins are stupid and dumb and all the other teams are smart. That said, I didn't really get why he was let go when he was. And also, Doumit doesn't play a lot of shortstop, so that's probably not a great comparison. And on the opposite side of that, I think Doumit has been given a fair amount of credit for his contributions this year. As may be clear, I don't really have a point here!

I was iffy on the Hardy move when it happened. I didn't really like it much but had more faith in the Twins scouting department regarding Nishioka. Turns out, they really blew it. It makes me question the amount of thought and research that went into the move before the trigger was pulled on the deal. Anyone who watched him play for more than a few minutes had to realize he is not a ML shortstop. And if you know that, why would you make the deal if it's a choice between Hardy and Nishioka? The Twins needed a shortstop, not a second baseman.

Well, they kinda needed both but shortstops are much harder to find and they already had one on the roster under team control.

old nurse
06-22-2012, 10:05 AM
Consider for 2011 the Twins paid 5 million for the rights, 3 million in salary and .5 million to get rid of Hardy and get Nishi. Hardy's salary was 5.8 million. The remainder of the money could have been spent on a Cris Camuano or better type of pitcher. The end result would have been a far more successful season. 8 less starts by Slowey, Duensing in the pen could have made for a far different season.

UCLA_YANKEE_COLA
06-22-2012, 10:28 AM
I have a buddy who works as a camerman for a local news outlet. They were going to do a story on him at the beginning of last year, a get to know him kind of piece where they followed him around town and talked about the transition from Japan to the US. Apparently Nishi smokes and when they asked him to put out his cigarette he got pissed and stormed off. They never did the piece. That doesn't necessarily mean anything but it might be an insight into how seriously he takes his conditioning.

Paul
06-22-2012, 01:10 PM
I take solace from only one aspect of the whole Nishioka / Hardy swap. And that is that the lessons Gardenhire learned will stick. I don't know the problem between Gardy and Hardy, I can only speculate, which I've done plenty on this site in other postings. But, can you imagine the frustration Gardy felt, and the aging it caused him, when he had to watch that kid stumble around 2B until he broke his leg? And then, because of the investment, be convinced SS might work better because he couldn't avoid the runner as a 2B. And then have to watch that kid stumble around at SS, the place your leader on D plays. Remember the Pavano emotional display in the dugout? You think he was the only player that felt that? No, that was a rough clubhouse last year.

So anyway, I take a little solace in the fact that, because of the magnitude of the pain, the lessons will not be forgotten. I just hope the aging on him doesn't cause him to wanna be shut of this place.

Loosey
06-22-2012, 01:39 PM
He had the power surge last year, but his numbers so far this year are pretty similar to Doumit's. And for good reason, I don't see a whole lot of gushing over Doumit.
.

Put Doumit's line in place of any shortstop that has played here recently and I think we would all be very pleased. (.253/.313/.405) with 6 HR's. If that were Dozier's line the Twins would be ecstatic. For a shortstop that line is very quality in my opinion.

Brock Beauchamp
06-22-2012, 01:46 PM
Put Doumit's line in place of any shortstop that has played here recently and I think we would all be very pleased. (.253/.313/.405) with 6 HR's. If that were Dozier's line the Twins would be ecstatic. For a shortstop that line is very quality in my opinion.

Considering that the league average OPS for a shortstop is somewhere around .690, everyone should think that's a quality line.

spideyo
06-22-2012, 01:48 PM
1. There was no "Nishioka trade." He was signed as a free agent after the Twins won bidding rights.
2. "Rumors?" The only rumors were coming from the Twins. Hardy was in his last yr of arb eligibility in 2011 and was under team control. WTF are you talking about?
3. Hardy hit .268/.320/.394 for the Twins. Not great, but pretty damn solid for a SS. In the second half, when he was over his injury, he put up a .304/.363/.442 line in over 200 PAs.
4. Hardy absolutely did NOT do "worse" in the field. Very solid SS.

Other than missing on virtually every "fact," nice post.

Ok, so I typed trade when I meant signing. Sorry. As far as the rumors, all I remember is reading things and hearing people talk about Hardy potentially leaving the twins. I don't remember the sources, it was a year and a half ago.

I didn't say Hardy was awful, but he wasn't spectacular at the plate, and was nowhere near his 2007-2008 peak numbers. Based on his 2009 and 2010 numbers and injuries, it wasn't hard to make the assumption that he wasn't going to return to All-Star form.

And in the field, he absolutely did do worse in 2010 than he did in 2009. He had the lowest fielding percentage he'd had since his rookie year. Again, it was easy to assume that he wasn't going to make a sudden recovery.

I would guess they were expecting that either Nishi or Casilla would field better than Hardy. They weren't expecting to need that much offense from SS, with the assumption that Thome, Kubel, Young, Mauer, Morneau, Span, Cuddyer, and Valencia would perform well at the plate. Clearly, that was an incorrect assumption, but after 2010 it was a fairly easy one to make.

spideyo
06-22-2012, 01:51 PM
Actually, now that I think about it, it seems like the biggest mistake they made was getting rid of Hardy AND Punto. They really should have kept at least one of them around, just as insurance.

Brock Beauchamp
06-22-2012, 01:55 PM
And in the field, he absolutely did do worse in 2010 than he did in 2009. He had the lowest fielding percentage he'd had since his rookie year. Again, it was easy to assume that he wasn't going to make a sudden recovery.

Fielding percentage tells absolutely nothing about the quality of the player in the field.

On the other hand, Hardy's UZR for 2010 was pretty outstanding. It's hard to put too much weight into defensive metrics for half seasons but Hardy has always been solid defensively. 2010 was no different.

Paul
06-22-2012, 02:10 PM
...Hardy has always been solid defensively. 2010 was no different.

For Hardy's entire career, save 09 when the Brewers dicked him around and 10 when he was battling an injured wrist, he has been well above average ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL.

Brock Beauchamp
06-22-2012, 02:12 PM
For Hardy's entire career, save 09 when the Brewers dicked him around and 10 when he was battling an injured wrist, he has been well above average ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL.

I was definitely understating Hardy's defensive prowess. If healthy, he's in the upper echelon of shortstops defensively. In his off years, he's merely "well above average".

Loosey
06-22-2012, 02:18 PM
My point exactly. I was pointing out how someone was comparing Hardy's numbers this year to Doumit's and essentially saying Hardy is no good. Hardy's numbers, while not All-Star caliber, are very good for a shortstop and I would take him back in a heartbeat.

Paul
06-22-2012, 02:28 PM
My point exactly. I was pointing out how someone was comparing Hardy's numbers this year to Doumit's and essentially saying Hardy is no good. Hardy's numbers, while not All-Star caliber, are very good for a shortstop and I would take him back in a heartbeat.

Perhaps someone who compares a SS offensive stats with a backup catcher's should not be considered credible.

I wonder if Gardy would "take him back in a heartbeat"?

jokin
06-22-2012, 05:47 PM
I will probably always wonder about this as well. Was it a failure of the scouting department? Did marketing concerns override scouting reservations? Did Dave St. Peter as team Pres (and marketing strategist) play a role in the baseball side of the operations in this instance?

I'm sure we'll never know. Personally I'm convinced that it was a complete organizational failure (and that, for that reason, no one will ever have to take responsibility). I suspect that the scouting reports were "just good enough" that the final decision-makers allowed marketing considerations to overcome any reservations that may have been in those reports (in a way that they wouldn't have done if they player had been from the U.S.) This was also done at the time when they were riding high on new TF revenues -- allowing them to take a risk that they wouldn't have taken earlier.

But I doubt we'll ever know for sure.

I agree 100%. You've correctly identified why this situation has evidentiary fingerprints in place, all the way from the field manager to the top of the organization. This is why I suggested that St. Peter also has to go, along with much of the FO braintrust. We still probably won't get to the bottom of this fiasco, but in hiring the caliber of people I proposed, at least the type of thinking that brought it about will be gone for good.

jokin
06-22-2012, 06:47 PM
Originally Posted by one_eyed_jack http://twinsdaily.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://twinsdaily.com/showthread.php?p=26462#post26462) JJ Hardy is a nice player but I think the gushing over him is a bit excessive. You'd think we were talking about the second coming of Ernie Banks here.

He had the power surge last year, but his numbers so far this year are pretty similar to Doumit's. And for good reason, I don't see a whole lot of gushing over Doumit.

The Nishioka issue aside, I'd rather be developing Dozier than overpaying Hardy.

Originally Posted by CDog


Agree that Hardy has become one of those players that people like to inflate from reality to fit their narrative that the Twins are stupid and dumb and all the other teams are smart. That said, I didn't really get why he was let go when he was. And also, Doumit doesn't play a lot of shortstop, so that's probably not a great comparison. And on the opposite side of that, I think Doumit has been given a fair amount of credit for his contributions this year. As may be clear, I don't really have a point here!







For Hardy's entire career, save 09 when the Brewers dicked him around and 10 when he was battling an injured wrist, he has been well above average ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL.

I should say so, definitely well above average! The stats below make the overwhelming case that he is in the elite group of SS. In the case of Hardy, the "narrative is the reality", no need for inflation. The Twins first made probably their second best trade of the millenium (other than Nathan?). Most knowledgeable Twins fans were ecstatic, as we hadn't had a SS of that style or caliber ever in a Twins uniform before. Within less than a year, the Twins converted that into perhaps a tie for their worst trade of the millenium (Hardy for Hoey/Ramos for Capps). Hardy isn't Banks, don't think anyone accused him of that, but his career numbers don't lie:

UZR Rankings for all MLB Shortstops:


2005-12: #1
2006-12: #1
2007-12: #1
2008-12: #1
2009-12: #2
2010-12: #2
2011-12: #2


WAR Rankings for all MLB Shortstops


2005-12: #8
2006-12: #6
2007-12: #6
2008-12: #7
2009-12: #10
2010-12: #4
2011-12: #4

I'd be willing to split the difference and suggest that the Twins are either stupid or dumb. Take your pick.

jokin
06-22-2012, 11:07 PM
Considering that the league average OPS for a shortstop is somewhere around .690, everyone should think that's a quality line.

Actually, AL OPS average for SS is only .673, so this is a quality line, even in a "down" year. Furthermore, Hardy's current BABIP ranks him at 29th with a .253 average, so his numbers will undoubtedly rise significantly as his BABIP normalizes and his luck improves to more typical career numbers.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-22-2012, 11:35 PM
Yes, JJ Hardy is never going to be a hall of fame guy and prob won't make any all star games anytime soon.
But the fact remains he is clearly the best SS the Twins have had in like 20 years. Defensively they have had no one better I could post UZR and other stats but its been done and if you truly believe Hardy wasn't elite defensively then frankly there isn't much to be said to combat it. Also for the record, I wasn't totally against trading Hardy, but getting a garbage, medicore no upside RP in return for him was laughable, and your replacement for him was an overpaid medicore Japanese player was just as absurd. Offensively the numbers speak for themselves:
2012: Dozier 56 OPS+
2011: Nishioka 48 OPS+
2010: Hardy 96 OPS+
2009: O Cab 95 OPS+ (clearly a downgrade defensively, but FWIW they got rid of him as well for nothing)
2008: Adam Everett 48 OPS+
2005-2007:Bartlett 82 OPS+ (Solid all around for a while, again, why the hell do you just toss him into the Delmon Trade? Also Hardy was better)
1999-2005: Christian Guzman 73 OPS+
1993-1998: Pat Meares 73 OPS+
Again, Hardy isn't going to get confused for A-Rod, Tulo or Reyes anytime soon, but at the end of the day he still is the best option we have had in a long time, letting him go for freaking Jim Hoey when he still had a year of team control on him should go down as Bill Smiths biggest blunder, fortunately for Bill Smith though he had a couple other deals go down that out stunk that garbage.

CDog
06-23-2012, 02:08 AM
Since I was directly quoted in one post and implicated in others, I'd like to reiterate something from that quoted post: I think Hardy is a very good shortstop and would love if he was employed in that role for the Twins. What I actually said was that people often go overboard in their praise to make an invalid point that feeds their negativity, when simply the truth would suffice to make a valid point (that in this case, the Twins made a weird and poor choice).

CDog
06-23-2012, 02:09 AM
Fielding percentage tells absolutely nothing about the quality of the player in the field.

I'm fairly confident that the 15-20% or so fielding percentage I'd put up would be quite telling of the quality of the player.

Brock Beauchamp
06-23-2012, 09:53 AM
2009: O Cab 95 OPS+ (clearly a downgrade defensively, but FWIW they got rid of him as well for nothing)

I don't think the Twins had a choice with Cabrera. Didn't his contract include a by-line that the team could not offer him arbitration? Or was that Hudson?

jokin
06-23-2012, 12:48 PM
Since I was directly quoted in one post and implicated in others, I'd like to reiterate something from that quoted post: I think Hardy is a very good shortstop and would love if he was employed in that role for the Twins. What I actually said was that people often go overboard in their praise to make an invalid point that feeds their negativity, when simply the truth would suffice to make a valid point (that in this case, the Twins made a weird and poor choice).

Just whose "narrative" ox needs goring? The "valid truth", according to you, is that "the Twins made a weird and poor choice", but definitely NOT a: "laughable" one, a "blunder", "a complete organizational failure", "painful lesson learned", situation that "turned out, they really blew it". And certainly not "dumb or stupid", because that would just fit a biased narrative. M-kay, then.

Badsmerf
06-23-2012, 02:09 PM
Can we be done with this thread now?

one_eyed_jack
06-23-2012, 03:14 PM
My point exactly. I was pointing out how someone was comparing Hardy's numbers this year to Doumit's and essentially saying Hardy is no good. Hardy's numbers, while not All-Star caliber, are very good for a shortstop and I would take him back in a heartbeat.


---I said that Hardy was a nice player (not sure where you got "essentially no good" from), but he is overrated by Twins fans who like to dwell on the decision to trade him. Doumit was not a good example to cite as he's not a shortstop, that's a fair point.

Did trading Hardy and signing Nishioka prove to be dumb moves? Absolutely. But like Cdog said, you don't need falsely make the guy sound like a first ballot Hall of Famer to make that point.

As far as "taking him back in a heartbeat" - yeah, sure, at no cost, but he's in the first-year of a 3-year/$22 mil deal. And outside of a 3-week period in May, he's been pretty ineffective at the plate this year. Dozier has put up better numbers at the plate than Hardy over the last month.

Here's the other thing: suppose we had kept Hardy, he had a great year last year here, we gave him the same extension Baltimore did, and he put up the same 2012 numbers here; I highly doubt that you'd see the same fawning praise of Hardy.

USAFChief
06-23-2012, 04:35 PM
But like Cdog said, you don't need falsely make the guy sound like a first ballot Hall of Famer to make that point.


Is that what the kids these days call a "strawman?"

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-23-2012, 04:44 PM
---I said that Hardy was a nice player (not sure where you got "essentially no good" from), but he is overrated by Twins fans who like to dwell on the decision to trade him. Doumit was not a good example to cite as he's not a shortstop, that's a fair point.

Did trading Hardy and signing Nishioka prove to be dumb moves? Absolutely. But like Cdog said, you don't need falsely make the guy sound like a first ballot Hall of Famer to make that point.

As far as "taking him back in a heartbeat" - yeah, sure, at no cost, but he's in the first-year of a 3-year/$22 mil deal. And outside of a 3-week period in May, he's been pretty ineffective at the plate this year. Dozier has put up better numbers at the plate than Hardy over the last month.

Here's the other thing: suppose we had kept Hardy, he had a great year last year here, we gave him the same extension Baltimore did, and he put up the same 2012 numbers here; I highly doubt that you'd see the same fawning praise of Hardy.

If the Twins would have held onto Hardy and gave him the 6 mil arbitration he was owed, they would have minimized there risk quite a bit, instead they went out and overpaid for some mediorce imported player and are now on the hook for another season.

Also if the Twins decided they didn't want to give Hardy a 3/22 mil type deal then they could have just traded him at the deadline last season and got back something 1000x better than Jim Hoey. Even coming off of his 2010 season at the very worst Hardy was an above average option at SS for any team. And as "bad" as he has been in 2012, he still is playing significantly better at SS than anyone in the Twins org.

They completely mishandled the SS position as poorly as humanly possible last off-season.

jokin
06-23-2012, 05:36 PM
---

Did trading Hardy and signing Nishioka prove to be dumb moves? Absolutely. But like Cdog said, you don't need falsely make the guy sound like a first ballot Hall of Famer to make that point.

As far as "taking him back in a heartbeat" - yeah, sure, at no cost, but he's in the first-year of a 3-year/$22 mil deal. And outside of a 3-week period in May, he's been pretty ineffective at the plate this year. Dozier has put up better numbers at the plate than Hardy over the last month.

Here's the other thing: suppose we had kept Hardy, he had a great year last year here, we gave him the same extension Baltimore did, and he put up the same 2012 numbers here; I highly doubt that you'd see the same fawning praise of Hardy.

Wow, you know you're on the losing side when you can't even quote statistically insignificant arguments accurately:

Dozier vs. Hardy- Last 30 Days:


Hardy 215/265/355/620
Dozier 208/232/260/592


As noted previously, Hardy's BABIP is ridiculously out of kilter, suggesting it highly likely that he will return to something close to resembling his career numbers.

So, other than careening wildly to the left and right in attempting to miss the point, you at least are a step ahead of CDog in agreeing that the handling of this situation by the Twins was "dumb".

one_eyed_jack
06-23-2012, 05:52 PM
Wow, you know you're on the losing side when you can't even quote statistically insignificant arguments accurately:

Dozier vs. Hardy- Last 30 Days:


Hardy 215/265/355/620
Dozier 208/232/260/592


As noted previously, Hardy's BABIP is ridiculously out of kilter, suggesting it highly likely that he will return to something close to resembling his career numbers.

So, other than careening wildly to the left and right in attempting to miss the point, you at least are a step ahead of CDog in agreeing that the handling of this situation by the Twins was "dumb".


---Well, so much for that previous agreement to debate respectfully with each other and only hurl snotty barbs at White Sox fans.

glunn
06-23-2012, 05:59 PM
---Well, so much for that previous agreement to debate respectfully with each other and only hurl snotty barbs at White Sox fans.

Yes, can we PLEASE save the invective for people who are truly misguided, such as White Sox fans?

jokin
06-23-2012, 07:53 PM
---Well, so much for that previous agreement to debate respectfully with each other and only hurl snotty barbs at White Sox fans.




"JJ Hardy is a nice player but I think the gushing over him is a bit excessive. You'd think we were talking about the second coming of Ernie Banks here."

"But like Cdog said, you don't need falsely make the guy sound like a first ballot Hall of Famer to make that point......I highly doubt that you'd see the same fawning praise of Hardy."


My mistake then, I guess I'll put away the Kleenex, nothing snotty to see here...

From this point, I'll reiterate a pledge to work harder at respectful debate, especially when the street goes both ways.

CDog
06-24-2012, 02:09 AM
From this point, I'll reiterate a pledge to work harder at respectful debate, especially when the street goes both ways.

Or you could try reading and actually trying to understand. That might work just as well.

glunn
06-24-2012, 02:52 AM
From this point, I'll reiterate a pledge to work harder at respectful debate, especially when the street goes both ways.

I respect you for this jokin. In our passion for the Twins, it's easy to become more abrasive than we need to be in order to make our points. But in reality, the worst Twins fan is better than the best White Sox fan. We Twins fans share a common obsession, and while we may disagree, we must remain brothers and sisters lest we start acting like Yankees fans.

one_eyed_jack
06-24-2012, 09:05 AM
I respect you for this jokin. In our passion for the Twins, it's easy to become more abrasive than we need to be in order to make our points. But in reality, the worst Twins fan is better than the best White Sox fan. We Twins fans share a common obsession, and while we may disagree, we must remain brothers and sisters lest we start acting like Yankees fans.


---Well said, glunn, and I salute you for calling us out previously over this. We can disagree, even passionately so, but should do so without attacking each other's character, intelligence and motives. I've let emotion get the best of me a couple of times in the past and crossed that line myself; I apologize for that and resolve not to escalate baseball disagreements into urinating contests. I love this forum, and would hate to see it devolve into the equivalent of the Strib comments section.

snepp
06-24-2012, 08:34 PM
Is that what the kids these days call a "strawman?"

No, that's what the middle aged folk call it.


The kids call it an "egregious strawman."

jokin
06-24-2012, 08:48 PM
---Well said, glunn, and I salute you for calling us out previously over this. We can disagree, even passionately so, but should do so without attacking each other's character, intelligence and motives. I've let emotion get the best of me a couple of times in the past and crossed that line myself; I apologize for that and resolve not to escalate baseball disagreements into urinating contests. I love this forum, and would hate to see it devolve into the equivalent of the Strib comments section.


I can't disagree with one thing you've said and I readily admit to holding strongly to my own point of view, no reason on my part to contribute to any Strib-equivalent "devolvement", though.

jokin
06-24-2012, 08:54 PM
Or you could try reading and actually trying to understand. That might work just as well.

My bad then, given there weren't even any college-level words in your thesis, I thought I understood what you said perfectly well. I wasn't aware that you just infrequently pop in from Delphi to deign upon the masses your varied and assundry Oracles. Perhaps it might work just as well for you to make your point better by dumbing it down even lower so even us peons can understand.

gil4
06-24-2012, 09:44 PM
I'm fairly confident that the 15-20% or so fielding percentage I'd put up would be quite telling of the quality of the player.

Your -60 UZR would still be a better indicator :)

Steve Fetch
06-25-2012, 12:55 AM
---I said that Hardy was a nice player (not sure where you got "essentially no good" from), but he is overrated by Twins fans who like to dwell on the decision to trade him. Doumit was not a good example to cite as he's not a shortstop, that's a fair point.

Did trading Hardy and signing Nishioka prove to be dumb moves? Absolutely. But like Cdog said, you don't need falsely make the guy sound like a first ballot Hall of Famer to make that point.

As far as "taking him back in a heartbeat" - yeah, sure, at no cost, but he's in the first-year of a 3-year/$22 mil deal. And outside of a 3-week period in May, he's been pretty ineffective at the plate this year. Dozier has put up better numbers at the plate than Hardy over the last month.

Here's the other thing: suppose we had kept Hardy, he had a great year last year here, we gave him the same extension Baltimore did, and he put up the same 2012 numbers here; I highly doubt that you'd see the same fawning praise of Hardy.

A lot of analysis problems could be solved by not talking about how guys have done over the course of half a season. Hardy's no HOFer but he's easily a top 5 SS in the league.