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thebigshow20
06-18-2012, 08:45 AM
With about a month and a half left until the trade deadline, this thread is for trade rumors and speculation. Who do you want to see shipped out? For who? mlbtraderumors.com has good articles about potential trades. I read the Blue Jays have interest in Morneau. Also, would not be surprised to see Span traded to a team with starting pitching available.

stringer bell
06-18-2012, 09:14 AM
Doumit, Capps and perhaps Burton could be available.

James
06-18-2012, 09:55 AM
Well, here's something for you:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/twins-seek-pitching.html

ashburyjohn
06-18-2012, 10:46 AM
Well, here's something for you:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/twins-seek-pitching.html

Ryan said,"We need pitching, and we need it bad."

No, they need it good, and they need it badly. :)

Winston Smith
06-18-2012, 11:21 AM
Imo, you listen on any player on the roster. If you can help the team long term it needs to be done. Willingham and Span you say make me an offer I can't refuse and you don't trade these guys for relief pitchers.

PMKI
06-18-2012, 11:27 AM
Imo, you listen on any player on the roster. If you can help the team long term it needs to be done. Willingham and Span you say make me an offer I can't refuse and you don't trade these guys for relief pitchers.

Agreed with everything. If the Twins top prospects after the trade deadline doesn't look different I will be very disappointed.

Highabove
06-18-2012, 12:04 PM
In less there is a blow away offer, Willingham is going nowhere.. The Twins will need a watchable product next year, also Trading a Player who has just signed as a Free Age will not look good to future Free Agents.
Trading Burton would not make any sense. Cheap and under Team control for next Season. Next years Bullpen will need a couple of Veterans to go along with the kids.

twinzgrl
06-18-2012, 12:24 PM
Great that Terry recognizes that we need pitching....but it must be effective pitching or nothing will improve....I'm at the point where I don't care who they trade to get it, just get it. I'm sick of my team being cellar dwellers....

IdahoPilgrim
06-18-2012, 12:34 PM
I guess my question is who is going to give us ready-to-go starting pitching? While the Twin's situation is worse than most, nobody has as much starting pitching as they like, and everybody is looking for the hot new prospect who is a guaranteed go-to starter in a year or two. And if we're going to trade away a Morneau or a Willingham or a Span, that's what we need in return - somebody who is a good bet to be ready in at most 18 months. We don't need some hotshot in A-ball who may end up fizzling anyway.

I hate to say it, but the best way out of our pitching quandry is hope some of the talent we have in the system develops well, maybe get 1-2 mid-level starters (we'll never get an ace) in free agency, utilize the rule 5 draft effectively, and continue to stock younger arms through the amateur draft.

cr9617
06-18-2012, 12:53 PM
In less there is a blow away offer, Willingham is going nowhere.. The Twins will need a watchable product next year, also Trading a Player who has just signed as a Free Age will not look good to future Free Agents.
Trading Burton would not make any sense. Cheap and under Team control for next Season. Next years Bullpen will need a couple of Veterans to go along with the kids.

Let's hope they get a blow away offer....

nicksaviking
06-18-2012, 01:14 PM
As good as Willingham has been, he doesn't and won't put fans in the seats. As far a marketing goes, he is neither tenured long enough as a Twins nor offensively prolific enough to bring people to the stadium; he is expendable from that standpoint. If Ryan believes the Twins can contend during the last two years of Willingham's contract than he can be hesitant about moving him as misguided as the notion of contending might be. My stratagy would be to start putting out the idea that Willingham is a more consistant and healthier Carlos Quentin seeing as CQ has been the big outfield name on the market. If you can't get a terrific desperation offer, try the move again next year.

DAM DC Twins Fans
06-18-2012, 02:20 PM
Morneau has concussion history--he wont bring an offer Twins cant refuse. The only 2 Twns who can are Span and Willingham--trade one if you get a good number 2/3 starter (like Gio or Jordan Zimmerman of Nats) and a pitching prospect doing well in AAA. With Harper I doubt Span is of interest to Nats...maybe elsewhere. Trading others--Carroll, Plouffe, Morneau wont bring either a top notch prospect or #2 starter...Twins need a second reliable starter for 2013 to go along with Diamond. Thats what they should be trading for.

nicksaviking
06-18-2012, 03:24 PM
Morneau has concussion history--he wont bring an offer Twins cant refuse. The only 2 Twns who can are Span and Willingham--trade one if you get a good number 2/3 starter (like Gio or Jordan Zimmerman of Nats) and a pitching prospect doing well in AAA. With Harper I doubt Span is of interest to Nats...maybe elsewhere. Trading others--Carroll, Plouffe, Morneau wont bring either a top notch prospect or #2 starter...Twins need a second reliable starter for 2013 to go along with Diamond. Thats what they should be trading for.

I think the Nats view Harper as a future corner infield, and I think the Span speculation has more to do with their lack of top of the order bats. Their leadoff hitters have a .308 OBP this year, they are going to want an upgrade for any kind of meaningful playoff run.

PMKI
06-18-2012, 03:35 PM
Any chance we can get a guy like Alex Meyer from the Nats from Span or is that too high of a prospect? Where in most organizations would the prospects rank that we should expect to receive for Span, Morneau, Capps, Willingham, or whoever else?

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-18-2012, 04:25 PM
Any chance we can get a guy like Alex Meyer from the Nats from Span or is that too high of a prospect? Where in most organizations would the prospects rank that we should expect to receive for Span, Morneau, Capps, Willingham, or whoever else?

Puckett's Pond had a great post about some prospects the Twins may want. http://puckettspond.com/2012/06/17/10-pitching-prospects-the-twins-might-want/

Toronto looks like a great trade partner because they have Syndergaard, Sanchez, and Nicolino. I'd hope that the Twins could get 2 out of the 3 and a low prospect if they eat some of Morneau's contract.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-18-2012, 04:36 PM
The Twins really only need to build a core that is essentially untouchable (unless they are blown away which is unlikely).
Right now I think that group is Mauer, Diamond, Burnett, Plouffe, Dozier, and Revere. Nearly everyone else becomes expendable for a reasonable price. I think we have two groups of trade bait. One is "As Good as Gone" and the other is "Moveable". The Difference is that the AGAG absolutely NEED to be traded, while Moveable pieces still could be part of the Twins future and would need to pried away.
AGAG: Doumit, Carroll, Span, Burton, Capps, Swarzak, Liriano, and Pavano (If anyone wants him)
Moveable: Morneau, Perkins, Duensing, and Willingham

spideyo
06-18-2012, 05:07 PM
I would actually put Carroll into the "Moveable" category, simply because they are still weak in the middle IF, and shouldn't move him unit they have a solid third guy besides Casilla and Dozier in the middle.

I would also consider Perkins and Burton as part of the "core" rather than Burnett. They have both shown flashes of brilliance, and both could rack up a lot of holds and saves if the rest of the team handed them the lead in the 8th more often. They aren't as young as Burnett, but I don't know that youth is nesc. as valuable in a relief pitcher as it is in other positions.

Willingham is another one I would add to your "core" group, simply because I think we benefit from having a guy older than 25 in the OF mix, just to help be mentor and an example to the young kids. I think we're going to have a veteran one way or the other, and I'd rather it be willingham than a rent-a-wreck guy like Rondell White

Brandon
06-18-2012, 05:41 PM
I am going to go with Joe Sanders for Burnett (Guerra or Oliveras, or Slama) and Benson or Tosoni, sign Sanders to a 2 year 12-15 million extention and we have another "Twins pitcher who can be a reliable 3-4-5 starter with good control and 200 innings. Basically 2 usable prospects that can somewhat contribute, Benson may be a bit much...

Guthrie is available too. I doubt he would cost much either.

Brock Beauchamp
06-18-2012, 05:47 PM
I would also consider Perkins and Burton as part of the "core" rather than Burnett. They have both shown flashes of brilliance, and both could rack up a lot of holds and saves if the rest of the team handed them the lead in the 8th more often.

As annoying as it is, I'm pretty sure the front office is going to deal Capps (yay!) and slot Perkins into the closer role next season. I'm down with retaining Perkins but I'm not down with giving a lefty the ninth inning... Or anyone the ninth inning, really. It's so much more efficient to use your best bullpen guys when they're needed most and that's usually not the ninth inning. Plus, if you don't declare a "closer", you don't have to pay anyone on the roster "closer" money.

snepp
06-18-2012, 06:01 PM
As annoying as it is, I'm pretty sure the front office is going to deal Capps (yay!) and slot Perkins into the closer role next season.

Look out 3-run leads with the bases empty, your time is done!

Fire Dan Gladden
06-18-2012, 06:32 PM
Everybody needs to prepare to be disappointed. The Twins will not get "blown away", they will not get any top prospects in return for any player on the roster, including Mauer. Teams do not trade top prospects any more. You can count on one hand the number of top shelf prospects that have moved in the last few years. Too much cost control for high production. Veterans are always overvalued. The Twins most moveable pieces, Willingham and Span, both have baggage. Willingham is in year 1 of 3, is 33 yrs old, can't defend, and is having one of the best starts of his career. Span has the concussion thing, along with some perceptions that he won't move from CF. No way the Twins will get top level prospects for these two.

Highabove
06-18-2012, 06:51 PM
Everybody needs to prepare to be disappointed. The Twins will not get "blown away", they will not get any top prospects in return for any player on the roster, including Mauer. Teams do not trade top prospects any more. You can count on one hand the number of top shelf prospects that have moved in the last few years. Too much cost control for high production. Veterans are always overvalued. The Twins most moveable pieces, Willingham and Span, both have baggage. Willingham is in year 1 of 3, is 33 yrs old, can't defend, and is having one of the best starts of his career. Span has the concussion thing, along with some perceptions that he won't move from CF. No way the Twins will get top level prospects for these two.

Great Points
An organization such as Tampa, built their Team with players that they developed through the draft. The Twins cannot turn their Organization around with a collection of C and D prospects.

gunnarthor
06-18-2012, 07:57 PM
Everybody needs to prepare to be disappointed. The Twins will not get "blown away", they will not get any top prospects in return for any player on the roster, including Mauer. Teams do not trade top prospects any more. You can count on one hand the number of top shelf prospects that have moved in the last few years. Too much cost control for high production. Veterans are always overvalued. The Twins most moveable pieces, Willingham and Span, both have baggage. Willingham is in year 1 of 3, is 33 yrs old, can't defend, and is having one of the best starts of his career. Span has the concussion thing, along with some perceptions that he won't move from CF. No way the Twins will get top level prospects for these two.

Let's see, top prospects moved the last few years. Here's a list of prospects traded since after the 2009 season (BA ranking in parenthesis). Zach Wheeler (35) for 3 months of Carlos Beltran. Brad Peacock (36), Derek Norris (72), AJ Cole (57) + Tommy Milone for Gio Gonzalez. Yonder Alonso (33), Yasmani Grandal (53) + 2 more including Edison Valquez for Mat Latos. Wilson Ramos (96) for Matt Capps. Jarred Cosart (50), Jonathan Singleton (34) + Josh Zeid for Hunter Pence. Brett Lawrie (40) for Shaun Marcum. Jake Ordorizzi (68), Alcides Escobar (12), + two more (including BA #100 the year before) for Zach Greinke. Casey Kelly (31), Anthony Rizzo (75) + two more for Adrian Gonzalez. Jesus Montere (6) for Michael Pineda. Kyle Drabek (25), Travis D'Arnaud (81) and Michael Taylor (29) for Roy Halladay. (Taylor was immediately traded for Brett Wallace (27)). Drew Pomeranz (30), Alex White (47) + two more for Ubaldo Jiminez. And that's also not counting some of the other deals for guys like Rasmus or the big Granderson trade that included Kennedy, Jackson, Schertzer (sp) etc.

So clearly, top prospects are getting dealt. Span and Willingham are both established major leaguers with team friendly contracts. While they aren't the game changers that Halladay or Gonzalez are, they are also considerably cheaper (combined salary this year is 12.5m). They also (hopefully) will be dealt in the middle of a very competitive trading deadline with the additon of the fifth wildcard in each league. If the Twins don't get a comparable offer for either of them, they shouldn't trade them. They'll still have value at next years deadline.

John Bonnes
06-18-2012, 08:25 PM
Let's see, top prospects moved the last few years. Here's a list of prospects traded since after the 2009 season (BA ranking in parenthesis). Zach Wheeler (35) for 3 months of Carlos Beltran. Brad Peacock (36), Derek Norris (72), AJ Cole (57) + Tommy Milone for Gio Gonzalez. Yonder Alonso (33), Yasmani Grandal (53) + 2 more including Edison Valquez for Mat Latos. Wilson Ramos (96) for Matt Capps. Jarred Cosart (50), Jonathan Singleton (34) + Josh Zeid for Hunter Pence. Brett Lawrie (40) for Shaun Marcum. Jake Ordorizzi (68), Alcides Escobar (12), + two more (including BA #100 the year before) for Zach Greinke. Casey Kelly (31), Anthony Rizzo (75) + two more for Adrian Gonzalez. Jesus Montere (6) for Michael Pineda. Kyle Drabek (25), Travis D'Arnaud (81) and Michael Taylor (29) for Roy Halladay. (Taylor was immediately traded for Brett Wallace (27)). Drew Pomeranz (30), Alex White (47) + two more for Ubaldo Jiminez. And that's also not counting some of the other deals for guys like Rasmus or the big Granderson trade that included Kennedy, Jackson, Schertzer (sp) etc.

So clearly, top prospects are getting dealt. Span and Willingham are both established major leaguers with team friendly contracts. While they aren't the game changers that Halladay or Gonzalez are, they are also considerably cheaper (combined salary this year is 12.5m). They also (hopefully) will be dealt in the middle of a very competitive trading deadline with the additon of the fifth wildcard in each league. If the Twins don't get a comparable offer for either of them, they shouldn't trade them. They'll still have value at next years deadline.

I love this post so much I want to marry it. Thanks for the research.

IdahoPilgrim
06-18-2012, 09:16 PM
Everybody needs to prepare to be disappointed. The Twins will not get "blown away", they will not get any top prospects in return for any player on the roster, including Mauer. Teams do not trade top prospects any more. You can count on one hand the number of top shelf prospects that have moved in the last few years. Too much cost control for high production. Veterans are always overvalued. The Twins most moveable pieces, Willingham and Span, both have baggage. Willingham is in year 1 of 3, is 33 yrs old, can't defend, and is having one of the best starts of his career. Span has the concussion thing, along with some perceptions that he won't move from CF. No way the Twins will get top level prospects for these two.

It depends on what would cause disappointment. Personally, I would be disappointed if they gave away our best talent for prospects of uncertain future. If we can't get a top prospect for Willingham or Span (and perhaps we can't) then I say keep them. A repeat of the Santana trade we do not need.

Fire Dan Gladden
06-19-2012, 12:56 AM
Let's see, top prospects moved the last few years. Here's a list of prospects traded since after the 2009 season (BA ranking in parenthesis). Zach Wheeler (35) for 3 months of Carlos Beltran. Brad Peacock (36), Derek Norris (72), AJ Cole (57) + Tommy Milone for Gio Gonzalez. Yonder Alonso (33), Yasmani Grandal (53) + 2 more including Edison Valquez for Mat Latos. Wilson Ramos (96) for Matt Capps. Jarred Cosart (50), Jonathan Singleton (34) + Josh Zeid for Hunter Pence. Brett Lawrie (40) for Shaun Marcum. Jake Ordorizzi (68), Alcides Escobar (12), + two more (including BA #100 the year before) for Zach Greinke. Casey Kelly (31), Anthony Rizzo (75) + two more for Adrian Gonzalez. Jesus Montere (6) for Michael Pineda. Kyle Drabek (25), Travis D'Arnaud (81) and Michael Taylor (29) for Roy Halladay. (Taylor was immediately traded for Brett Wallace (27)). Drew Pomeranz (30), Alex White (47) + two more for Ubaldo Jiminez. And that's also not counting some of the other deals for guys like Rasmus or the big Granderson trade that included Kennedy, Jackson, Schertzer (sp) etc.

So clearly, top prospects are getting dealt. Span and Willingham are both established major leaguers with team friendly contracts. While they aren't the game changers that Halladay or Gonzalez are, they are also considerably cheaper (combined salary this year is 12.5m). They also (hopefully) will be dealt in the middle of a very competitive trading deadline with the additon of the fifth wildcard in each league. If the Twins don't get a comparable offer for either of them, they shouldn't trade them. They'll still have value at next years deadline.

Noted. But if you look at list you provided, virtually every trade involves a game changer. The only move I would say not involving a "game changer" would be the Capps/Ramos deal. The rest of that list involves all-stars for prospects, or essentially prospects for prospects. Span and Willingham are no where near the level of any of those considered to be the centerpiece of those deals. Unless some team is incredibly stupid (ie Bill Smith), there is no way we would get anything of value back by trading either one of those. The only true game changer the Twins have is Mauer. His contract and iffy health situation make him unmoveable.

I am all for rebuilding the system, but we have to be realistic about what we are talking about.

gunnarthor
06-19-2012, 07:36 AM
Noted. But if you look at list you provided, virtually every trade involves a game changer. The only move I would say not involving a "game changer" would be the Capps/Ramos deal. The rest of that list involves all-stars for prospects, or essentially prospects for prospects. Span and Willingham are no where near the level of any of those considered to be the centerpiece of those deals.

That's a bit unrealistic, too. WAR has lots of problems but it'll work for our purposes. In three months, Beltran amassed about 1 WAR for the Giants (who gave up uber-pitching prospect Wheeler). Pence is fairly comparable to our guys. Avg about 3 WAR/season, low of 2.1 high of 3.7, traded at 28 so you knew what you'd get over the next few years. Span is a fairly safe bet to be a constant 3 WAR guy (and much cheaper) over his remaining deal. Latos, Marcum and Gonzalez are considered up and coming guys but none are all stars and all had some baggage - either injury concerns or failing to rack up innings or questions about pitching outside of a pitching haven. The three had combined for 4 3+ WAR seasons before they were traded and were traded based on hope that they'd continue to improve (Marcum probably wasn't worth Lawrie, Latos isn't doing well, Gonzalez is), whereas Span and Willingham are already established. Those teams are hoping those guys turn into consistent 3+ WAR guys. Jiminez was traded based on two seasons several years past and had been really struggling when traded (and still is). Gonzalez, Halladay are game changers but also had significant salary baggage that limited the number of teams that could bid on them. Something that won't affect Span and Willingham. (Incidentally, Capps has amassed more WAR than Ramos, the one "incredibly stupid deal" in your words).

The main difference in the handful of trades I listed (and it wasn't a comprehensive list and it only went back a couple years) is that Willingham and Span are more "what you see is what you get" guys, like Pence. Teams aren't going to trade for them and hope they get better and they should be fairly (as much as you can be) consistent in their production over the life of their contracts. Span has had one bad year, which was mostly bad luck, and has racked up 4.5 WAR over his last 130 games. Willingham is a solid slugger making 7m/yr and has a 130 OPS+ since 2009. Both are among the cheapest players listed, as well. The other advantage (hopefully) that the Twins will have will be more teams trying to be buyers with the extra wildcard and tight races in several divisions.

Loosey
06-19-2012, 09:24 AM
I mentioned this in another post, but if the Twins are to move Morneau or Willingham or even Capps for middling minor leaguers I fully expect their opened up salary to be spent on at least one high end free agent. That would free up $20M+. I think a high end talent could be had for $20M. But I doubt it will happen. The Twins will load up on 4 aging Jason Marquis/Rondell White type players and pay them $5M each only to have them be out of the rotation/lineup by June. That's the "Twins Way".

gunnarthor
06-19-2012, 09:50 AM
I mentioned this in another post, but if the Twins are to move Morneau or Willingham or even Capps for middling minor leaguers I fully expect their opened up salary to be spent on at least one high end free agent. That would free up $20M+. I think a high end talent could be had for $20M. But I doubt it will happen. The Twins will load up on 4 aging Jason Marquis/Rondell White type players and pay them $5M each only to have them be out of the rotation/lineup by June. That's the "Twins Way".

Well, the public backlash at trading Morneau for a pu-pu platter won't let that happen. And while this thread is discussing moving guys like Span and Willingham, remember that the Twins got Diamond for Bullock. There are a lot of pitchers like that out there that the Twins might target and get. Other teams tend to de-value soft tossing, control guys whereas the Twins have gotten some good bang for their buck with them. I could see Ryan trying to making small moves like that and keeping Span/Willingham. He said he needs pitching but he never said he needs flame throwers.

chopper0080
06-19-2012, 09:25 PM
Here are the only players I see us moving right now that will bring some sort of decent return...Liriano, Capps, Span, and Willingham. Doumit and Pavano are a pipe dreams in my opinion. I see Span as the piece which would have the highest return, and Capps as the most likely to be dealt. I would be shocked if Liriano is not traded, but I'm not sure what he will bring in return. Willingham is a power RH bat, and probably the most valuable of the 4 for the Twins, so I have a difficult time believing he will be moved.

PMKI
06-20-2012, 11:26 AM
The Nationals would probably be interested in Doumit.

ashburyjohn
06-20-2012, 01:02 PM
That's a bit unrealistic, too. WAR has lots of problems but it'll work for our purposes....

I took a similar tack on this question in a blog entry (http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1278-Can-the-Twins-restock-via-trades) a little more than a week ago. My conclusion was similar to the "prepare to be disappointed" theme here.

The problem is that what you get in return goes down pretty sharply as the talent you are unloading gets closer to average. Take Pence versus Span, looking at WAR from baseball-reference.com
Age Pence Span
24 3.3 4.2
25 2.1 3.7
26 3.7 1.5
27 2.8 2.3
28 3.2 2.3

(The age-28 seasons are both partial and thus somewhat comparable, a little to Span's detriment.) Span's career started out stronger but the recent track record favors Pence, and there would also be the lingering concern over the concussion.

I do think you can expect one can't-miss prospect plus maybe another middling prospect in return for Span, but not a haul like Pence fetched. Based on WAR I saw Span as a trading asset as somewhat matched (ironically) to a pitcher, Zambrano. Would you like a Span-for-Kazmir type of trade? I probably would, but that's about the limit - you won't restock the starting rotation with Span as the bait, and he's about the best/only trading asset we've got.

gunnarthor
06-20-2012, 04:07 PM
I do think you can expect one can't-miss prospect plus maybe another middling prospect in return for Span, but not a haul like Pence fetched. Based on WAR I saw Span as a trading asset as somewhat matched (ironically) to a pitcher, Zambrano. Would you like a Span-for-Kazmir type of trade? I probably would, but that's about the limit - you won't restock the starting rotation with Span as the bait, and he's about the best/only trading asset we've got.

You make some good points but I think their are two issues that will add to Span's attractiveness. First, unlike Pence, he is cost controlled and therefore more teams can afford him than Pence. Second, with the additional wild card, more teams will (hopefully) be buyers at the deadline. That said, I'm not sure the Twins move Span at all. I think it's more likely that the Twins don't make a major move and instead try and make more Bullock for Diamond trades and wait a year before moving anyone of significance.

PMKI
06-27-2012, 01:31 PM
So the Braves are scouting Liriano. I say that we don't settle for anything less than Julio Teheran! haha

CK
06-27-2012, 01:57 PM
Or Vizcaino or Gilmartin
Or both...
STRONG ARM THEM