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Nick Nelson
06-13-2012, 12:05 AM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?655-Looking-Ahead-to-the-Deadline

glunn
06-13-2012, 12:22 AM
It will be a shame for the Twins if Liriano gets traded and ends up as some other team's ace. But maybe a change of scene is what he needs.

Land Of 10,000 Beasts
06-13-2012, 12:25 AM
The Twins need to find and identify their core by picking a group of players that are essentially unmovable. Mauer really is the only guy who makes that list at this point. Once they have a group of players who they want as their long term nucleus, trade anyone who has value that they feel won't be in their long term plans. Maybe it's Morneau, maybe Willingham, maybe like you said Liriano. I know what I'm saying is kind of obvious but it's the blatant truth that the front office needs to look at and decide in the next month or so. Lest they panic and make moves that make us fans scratch our heads and think, "what the hell were they thinking?"

old nurse
06-13-2012, 01:07 AM
I did not go back and look but I recall teams making deals for relievers at the deadline. It is entirely possible that one of the Twins middle relievers will go. Sort of a McDonald for Dotel deal is possible, Pittsburg didn't get an ace, but he appears to be a solid starter for them. Some team thinking an upgrade will get them over the top will make a foolish trade. Ryan is capable of doing that. Krivisky is around now. When Ryan and Krivisky were a pair they pulled of great deals. Not Capps or Perkins, but one of the other relievers could be that kind of trade bait. Burton the most likely, the others less so.

Shane Wahl
06-13-2012, 02:01 AM
I see no reason why Matt Capps wouldn't be viable trade bait for a team looking for bullpen depth heading into the playoffs. Teams always pick off closers to put into setup roles like that. Burton is more questionable. Duensing is also very possible.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-13-2012, 02:43 AM
It will be a shame for the Twins if Liriano gets traded and ends up as some other team's ace. But maybe a change of scene is what he needs.

I have the same feelings, but as Nick says it's unlikely we'll keep him anyway. It would be foolish to sign him to a long term extension and he makes 5.5 million this year. Arbitration is an option, but after such a crappy season from him, it would be nuts to sign him for any more than 5 million a year through that process. So that's also not realistic. Although, there would be a chance to sign him in free agency, but that's probably a possibility even if they trade him. The odds don't look good then as it's the Twins vs. 29 teams. I strongly doubt the Twins would have any motivation regardless though. On a positive note, we could get something decent in return and get rid of the biggest headache of the past decade. If he does get traded and becomes an ace, there is absolutely no way that anyone can criticize the Twins for how they handled him. They have waited, and waited, and waited for this guy to produce and he just REFUSES to be consistent in any way.

Twinsoholic
06-13-2012, 07:49 AM
I see no reason why Matt Capps wouldn't be viable trade bait for a team looking for bullpen depth heading into the playoffs. Teams always pick off closers to put into setup roles like that. Burton is more questionable. Duensing is also very possible.

I agree that Capps should be viable (and valuable) trade bait if he continues to pitch well. A team looking for another set up guy to get them to their closer could do a lot worse than trading for Capps to fill that set up role and to be insurance should something happen to the closer. I think Capps could net the Twins at least one strong prospect (likely someone currently at AA) and a slightly lesser A ball prospect under the conditions I've spelled out.

The Twins should not trade Doumit. The Twins have an amazingly high octane offense, and Doumit is a part of that. Plus, he's a switch hitter. The Twins could trade Span and move Revere to center, but then the Twins will need someone to play right field--how's Wilken Ramirez doing at AAA? Span could net the Twins two very good AA prospects (at least one being a starting pitcher). If Span is hitting .300 by the trading deadline with some more rbis, then he could net stronger prospects.

The Twins might be able to trade Liriano if he learns how to pitch effectively and can sustain the effectiveness.

If the Twins' offense continues to assault other teams, then the Twins are really looking for a couple of more starters for the 2013 season, and one of the two might be Hendricks and another might be Gibson if he comes back healthy from his surgery. Just a thought.

TopGunn#22
06-13-2012, 08:15 AM
Twinsaholic makes good points. I would trade Pavano, Capps and Liriano for sure. Pavano could help a National League team. It's time to remove the frustrating inconsistency of Liriano, the better he pitches over the next month, the more intense the bidding will be for his services. Capps will surely bring something of value. I would also look to move Blackburn to a National league team. Last night, typical Blackie effort. We score 11 and hang on to win. I'm sooo sick of watching him pitch. I think Revere is ready. Time to move Span for some solid prospects. If we trade Pavano, Capps, Liriano and Span and get good to decent prospects, and then sign 2 free agent pitchers this off season (Greinke, Edwin Jackson?) we can be a contender next year in the mediocre A.L. Central.

Blackjack
06-13-2012, 08:26 AM
With a change of scenery, Liriano WILL develop into somebody else's ace, theres no doubt in my mind, but the Twins may as well get what they can for him because once he becomes a free agent, other teams will outbid the Twins for him, just on potential.

I don't know why everybody wants to trade Span?? Until Hicks, Benson, etc. develop to the point where you need to find a place for them, keep him - unless you're overwhelmed with an offer.

Ryan has made more positive moves than negative moves, I have faith that he'll do the right thing at the trade deadline.

IdahoPilgrim
06-13-2012, 09:10 AM
I agree that, unless we get offered a solid starting pitcher ready to go now (not a "prospect"), we keep Span. Revere is ready for center, but we need someone in left & right too. Our OF prospects are stuck right now and there is no guarantee they will get to the point they are ready to play everyday in the show. It's all fine and good to say we should trade our veterans for prospects, but let's not trade everybody. Prospects don't always pan out, and if all we have are prospects and some don't work, we'll be in the same boat 3 years from now - with half a team and no idea how to fill out the rest. Not to mention that there was to be somebody marketable to sell tickets, which is not by any means an unimportant consideration.

Shane Wahl
06-13-2012, 09:11 AM
I think Liriano is likely to have a very good-great 2013 with another team. And then a mediocre 2014. And who knows in 2015 . . . and so forth.

Thrylos
06-13-2012, 09:33 AM
I don't know why everybody wants to trade Span?? Until Hicks, Benson, etc. develop to the point where you need to find a place for them, keep him - unless you're overwhelmed with an offer.
.

A couple of reasons: a. this team needs SPs really badly for 2013 and Span is probably the only piece who can get back a quality MLB-ready SP in a package and b. Revere is ready now and should be playing CF over Span anyways. You deal with RF in the offseason (and you have to, since they have no RF right now, just 2 CFs). Easier to find RFs than SPs.

nicksaviking
06-13-2012, 09:36 AM
Hyopothetically, what do the Twins do if someone starts asking about Trevor Plouffe? He can play all four corner spots, and it is quite possible his value will never be higher. Just asking if people here think his current production is telling of future success, or if it's unlikely to continue but the Twins have suddenly found themselves with a player who may bring back a pitcher more likely to contribute in the future.

Rosterman
06-13-2012, 10:37 AM
What are the chances of Liriano signing a reduced contact with the Twins when he his free agency. Nil. I doubt the Twins will offer arbitration, which would put Liriano into the $8 mil range. That is also the downside to any team signing him...they need to sign him to something longterm. If they don't do that, they have to offer arbitration.

Capps has a nice option year for 2013. He is very viable if a team is looking for a closer, beyond this year.

Doumit...no one knows. He signed a one-year with the Twins for a reasonable rate. Is he looking to be a fulltime catcher, play somewhere as a DH -- he is not a first baseman or an outfielder. Tough call. How much will he demand. If the Twins can tie him up, more power to him, but they may be better served sticking with Butera and Hermann over the near future and getting a viable DH that can actually play another position on the field.

Blackburn ash to pitch more than 5 innings and give up fewer runs. He;s Carlos Silva all over again. Nol one will want his contract, sorry.

Casilla, Valencia...don't see them as future Twins beause of salary and attitude.

And what can the Twins do with Toshi...the $3 mil embarassment. There is no room for him at Target Field, is there?

Chance
06-13-2012, 10:54 AM
A couple of reasons: a. this team needs SPs really badly for 2013 and Span is probably the only piece who can get back a quality MLB-ready SP in a package and b. Revere is ready now and should be playing CF over Span anyways. You deal with RF in the offseason (and you have to, since they have no RF right now, just 2 CFs). Easier to find RFs than SPs.

I agree that Span is replaceable now with Revere ready to step into center. Right field could be filled this year with Parmelee/Mastorianni/Doumit. Arcia should be promoted any day now. If he performs well in AA which he should, He could be a September callup and start next season in the MLB. It is possible. Otherwise, yes they can fill it easier in FA.

boney
06-13-2012, 11:02 AM
Hyopothetically, what do the Twins do if someone starts asking about Trevor Plouffe? He can play all four corner spots, and it is quite possible his value will never be higher. Just asking if people here think his current production is telling of future success, or if it's unlikely to continue but the Twins have suddenly found themselves with a player who may bring back a pitcher more likely to contribute in the future.

If it was me I'd hold onto Plouffe for a while unless you get knocked over with an offer, which probably will not happen. He's cheap and under team control for a while still, but the thing that really makes me want to keep him is that he's not just up there trying to pull everything right now and getting lucky. The base hit up the middle, and the drive off the wall in right center last night make it look like he can be a hitter at this level and not a pull happy kid on a hot streak. Hopefully he keeps that approach

DAM DC Twins Fans
06-13-2012, 11:09 AM
To me Capps will not bring much--certainly less than Ramos who we gave up to get him. Liriano and Pavano will get us nothing but salary dump. The only tradeable asset we have is span. Yes, if we can get a starting pitcher for him, grab it, put Revere in CF, maybe bring back Valencia and put Plouffe in RF or put Parmalee there. This team is on a good run now, but I dont think they have enough to contend--the week before the ASB will prove that with 7 games vs Tiggers and Rangers.

SweetOne69
06-13-2012, 11:17 AM
What are the chances of Liriano signing a reduced contact with the Twins when he his free agency. Nil. I doubt the Twins will offer arbitration, which would put Liriano into the $8 mil range. That is also the downside to any team signing him...they need to sign him to something longterm. If they don't do that, they have to offer arbitration.

Capps has a nice option year for 2013. He is very viable if a team is looking for a closer, beyond this year.

Doumit...no one knows. He signed a one-year with the Twins for a reasonable rate. Is he looking to be a fulltime catcher, play somewhere as a DH -- he is not a first baseman or an outfielder. Tough call. How much will he demand. If the Twins can tie him up, more power to him, but they may be better served sticking with Butera and Hermann over the near future and getting a viable DH that can actually play another position on the field.

Blackburn ash to pitch more than 5 innings and give up fewer runs. He;s Carlos Silva all over again. Nol one will want his contract, sorry.

Casilla, Valencia...don't see them as future Twins beause of salary and attitude.

And what can the Twins do with Toshi...the $3 mil embarassment. There is no room for him at Target Field, is there?

Liriano doesn't have any arbitration years left, he will be a full fledged FA at the end of the season.

With the way Nishioka is playing in AAA this year, my guess is that he will be released at the end of the season.

Blackburn's issues may be attributed to loss of stamina. He was on the DL for 2 weeks and in his 2 rehab starts he went less than 3 innings each. In his 2 starts since coming back he has breezed through the 1st 3 innings, hit a wall in the 4th and battled through the 5th.

Boom Boom
06-13-2012, 11:45 AM
And what can the Twins do with Toshi...the $3 mil embarassment. There is no room for him at Target Field, is there?

The Twins aren't stacked in middle infielders in the minor leagues, so it's not like Nishioka is blocking anyone. But he's sunk cost right now. The best the Twins can hope for is to trade him back to a Japanese team for some cash.

Shane Wahl
06-13-2012, 12:59 PM
Revere needs to keep this up for me to be comfortable with any Span talk. Capps might bring about as much as Span at the deadline given the need teams often have for bullpen help. I do have to wonder how desperate the Reds might get with regard to Span, however. That lineup with a good leadoff hitter would be pretty dominant. I would still rather see the Twins spend money to get pitching, than trading key components of the lineup and defense for it.

Blake
06-13-2012, 02:21 PM
What about the possibility the Twins offer Liriano a contract at the end of the season and let him walk? Wouldn't the Twins then be eligible for compensation pick in the MLB draft?

Also, it appears the Twins have some decent pitchers, but do not have that one starting workhorse that sets the tone.

With the core of every day players currently on the roster and the salary that will be gone next year, I would think the Twins will take a long hard look at the free agent pitching market. Yeah, it goes against everything the Twins normally do, but isn't Willingham's contract already a signal that the Twins FO just might do things a little differently? (I have to wonder if the Twins are waiting until some salary comes off the payroll before spending any more money on free agent.)

I cannot see the Twins trading any position players currently starting, unless it is a Pierzynski type of trade, because the Twins don't have anyone that can fill the void.

nicksaviking
06-13-2012, 02:51 PM
What about the possibility the Twins offer Liriano a contract at the end of the season and let him walk? Wouldn't the Twins then be eligible for compensation pick in the MLB draft?

Also, it appears the Twins have some decent pitchers, but do not have that one starting workhorse that sets the tone.

With the core of every day players currently on the roster and the salary that will be gone next year, I would think the Twins will take a long hard look at the free agent pitching market. Yeah, it goes against everything the Twins normally do, but isn't Willingham's contract already a signal that the Twins FO just might do things a little differently? (I have to wonder if the Twins are waiting until some salary comes off the payroll before spending any more money on free agent.)

I cannot see the Twins trading any position players currently starting, unless it is a Pierzynski type of trade, because the Twins don't have anyone that can fill the void.

To get a compensation pick going forward, you have to offer the player a hefty salary. I believe it is the average of the top 150 player salaries which I have heard would be $11-12M dollars. So the Twins could offer that, but he'd quiet possibly accept and the Twins would be stuck that big chunk of change. Somehow the big market teams got this system swung to favor themselves. It will now take a super-star for a small market team to feel compelled to offer that salary, where as a team like the Yankees can certainly offer it to some one like Nick Swisher confident that even if they end up having to overpay him by $4M or so, it wont affect their budget too terribly.

SwainZag
06-13-2012, 02:55 PM
To me Capps will not bring much--certainly less than Ramos who we gave up to get him. Liriano and Pavano will get us nothing but salary dump. The only tradeable asset we have is span. Yes, if we can get a starting pitcher for him, grab it, put Revere in CF, maybe bring back Valencia and put Plouffe in RF or put Parmalee there. This team is on a good run now, but I dont think they have enough to contend--the week before the ASB will prove that with 7 games vs Tiggers and Rangers.

Capps has been overly solid this season actually. An ERA below 3, a WHIP below 1.00 and after a slow start he has been very good. Have you looked around the league and seen how many teams have switched closers and have had bullpen trouble this season? At 4.5M, he isn't a steal, but for a team looking for a solid arm he is a candidate. Now, I don't think they could snag a Top 100 spect ala Ramos for him, but I think he would bring back a return worthy of dealing of him.

SwainZag
06-13-2012, 03:00 PM
I agree that Span is replaceable now with Revere ready to step into center. Right field could be filled this year with Parmelee/Mastorianni/Doumit. Arcia should be promoted any day now. If he performs well in AA which he should, He could be a September callup and start next season in the MLB. It is possible. Otherwise, yes they can fill it easier in FA.

The problem with trading Span is he has a very team friendly contract for the next 2 years and IMO Revere is not a Major League CF. He just doesn't have the arm, hell he barely has the arm to play RF. Yes he has speed and plays good defense and as of late he has been hitting the ball well, but I really don't think he he's a replacement for Span in CF or in the leadoff spot. Revere also does not take walks, like Span does, who boasts a career .360+ OBP. The only way Span should be traded is if he can bring back a good SP prospect or a young one we can put into the rotation now and I really don't know if that's out there right now.

Blake
06-13-2012, 03:01 PM
To get a compensation pick going forward, you have to offer the player a hefty salary. I believe it is the average of the top 150 player salaries which I have heard would be $11-12M dollars. So the Twins could offer that, but he'd quiet possibly accept and the Twins would be stuck that big chunk of change. Somehow the big market teams got this system swung to favor themselves. It will now take a super-star for a small market team to feel compelled to offer that salary, where as a team like the Yankees can certainly offer it to some one like Nick Swisher confident that even if they end up having to overpay him by $4M or so, it wont affect their budget too terribly.

Talk about putting the Twins in a difficult position. They either offer Liriano 11 million after this year or spend twice that on a free agent pitcher.

And I cannot see the Twins really getting anything for Liriano unless he pitches lights out from now until the trade deadline.

CDog
06-13-2012, 03:08 PM
Not exactly on topic, but since there's obviously a lot about Liriano here...the last couple days I've gotten to wondering a non-factual-based question: How good would Liriano have to be the rest of the year for the Twins to actually offer him that minimum amount (which I've heard being as high as $12.5M)? I have run a very, very large range of answers that I think might be correct in my head. It's a puzzler!

strumdatjag
06-13-2012, 03:10 PM
Revere's best position is in left field. Willingham has great value and should be traded for that value. Revere moves into left and the Twins find a Right fielder with a decent arm. Do Not Trade Span. He is a very talented center fielder and relaible leadoff hitter who should help this team for several more years. Trade Liriano, but don't expect to get much (maybe a player with potential on another team who could also benefit from a change of scenery - in other words - someone else's enigmatic player like Liriano)

strumdatjag
06-13-2012, 03:11 PM
Revere's best position is in left field. Willingham has great value and should be traded for that value. Revere moves into left and the Twins find a Right fielder with a decent arm. Do Not Trade Span. He is a very talented center fielder and relaible leadoff hitter who should help this team for several more years. Trade Liriano, but don't expect to get much (maybe a player with potential on another team who could also benefit from a change of scenery - in other words - someone else's enigmatic player like Liriano)

SweetOne69
06-13-2012, 03:53 PM
Talk about putting the Twins in a difficult position. They either offer Liriano 11 million after this year or spend twice that on a free agent pitcher.

The Twins won't spend twice that (on an annual basis) to any FA pitcher.

mike wants wins
06-13-2012, 03:56 PM
As far as I can tell, nearly everyone is arguing not to deal any good players on the roster....not sure how the team gets better then, because we should be pretty sure Ryan won't deal any great prospects for players.

Shane Wahl
06-13-2012, 04:19 PM
Willingham has 2.6 years on his contract paying him a total of $18 million still from today on. Teams had a chance to bid on him this winter and the Twins won. They are not likely to trade for him this season.

Thrylos
06-13-2012, 04:59 PM
Willingham has 2.6 years on his contract paying him a total of $18 million still from today on. Teams had a chance to bid on him this winter and the Twins won. They are not likely to trade for him this season.

Yeah. And, if necessary, he can be a DH for the next couple seasons.

Another guy who has not been mentioned is Morneau. Heck, if I were the Twins at this point, I'd take calls on everyone... But they do have that bad habit of waiting too long and selling low.

YLT
06-13-2012, 05:43 PM
As far as I can tell, nearly everyone is arguing not to deal any good players on the roster....not sure how the team gets better then, because we should be pretty sure Ryan won't deal any great prospects for players.

I agree to a point. In my opinion, anyone on this team should be considered eligible for trade. Not stupid trades just to dump salary or turn things over for the sake of turning things over, but as Gleeman recently said on the radio broadcast with John Bonnes - if you're going to be a bad team, be a bad team. Blow it all up. Don't straggle along in mediocrity for 8 years. Be terrible for 2-3 years and hope that you've made the smart moves to have a contender for the next 5+ years. I don't buy the idea that they need to put some sort of 'product' on the field that will entice fans to Target Field. It's just as exciting (probably more) to watch a bunch of young guys learn the ropes over a couple of seasons with some high highs and some low lows and see talent develop through the system as it is to watch a (maybe) .500 club with serious holes in the farm system that we'll be subjected to for the foreseeable future if they don't start changing things up. Like I said though, don't trade just to trade but have the attitude that no player is some sacred cow that cannot be parted with if the right offer for what we need comes along.

old nurse
06-13-2012, 06:18 PM
With Ryan's (not Smith's) history on trades of productive veterans, if he trades Span or Capps he would get a good return. With disgruntled players, if he traded Valencia, the Twins would receive a player that would wash out.

ashburyjohn
06-13-2012, 06:48 PM
With Ryan's (not Smith's) history on trades of productive veterans, if he trades Span or Capps he would get a good return. With disgruntled players, if he traded Valencia, the Twins would receive a player that would wash out.

Ryan should work on thoroughly gruntling Valencia first, then.

TwinsFanLV
06-13-2012, 09:28 PM
I agree to a point. In my opinion, anyone on this team should be considered eligible for trade. Not stupid trades just to dump salary or turn things over for the sake of turning things over, but as Gleeman recently said on the radio broadcast with John Bonnes - if you're going to be a bad team, be a bad team. Blow it all up. Don't straggle along in mediocrity for 8 years. Be terrible for 2-3 years and hope that you've made the smart moves to have a contender for the next 5+ years. I don't buy the idea that they need to put some sort of 'product' on the field that will entice fans to Target Field. It's just as exciting (probably more) to watch a bunch of young guys learn the ropes over a couple of seasons with some high highs and some low lows and see talent develop through the system as it is to watch a (maybe) .500 club with serious holes in the farm system that we'll be subjected to for the foreseeable future if they don't start changing things up. Like I said though, don't trade just to trade but have the attitude that no player is some sacred cow that cannot be parted with if the right offer for what we need comes along.

Trade Morneau to any team willing to take on his remaining salary.
sign Doumit to an extension as he is an excellent compliment to Mauer, who should never again be considered an every day Catcher.
Trading Plouffe fo a prospect makes no sense. Plouffe is still a prospect. Let's see what he can do.
Package Pavanno, Capps and Liriano to the Padres for Cal League all star, Rico Noel. the Padres are one team more in need of immediate help than the Twins.

twinslover
06-13-2012, 10:10 PM
With a change of scenery, Liriano WILL develop into somebody else's ace, theres no doubt in my mind, but the Twins may as well get what they can for him because once he becomes a free agent, other teams will outbid the Twins for him, just on potential.

I don't know why everybody wants to trade Span?? Until Hicks, Benson, etc. develop to the point where you need to find a place for them, keep him - unless you're overwhelmed with an offer.

Ryan has made more positive moves than negative moves, I have faith that he'll do the right thing at the trade deadline.

I appreciate that comment, I needed to hear a good joke, which is exactly what the idea of Liriano as an ace is.

jorgenswest
06-13-2012, 10:44 PM
It will be interesting to see how the new CBA will impact the trade value of players.

Last year, the Twins knew that they would get two picks if they did not trade Cuddyer. His value to the Twins and any trade partner was greater. They would not only be acquiring Cuddyer the rest of the season but also two picks if they let him go to free agency.

This year teams will be more motivated to trade their players because they won't get picks for most players. This may increase the supply of players available. It also makes the players available less valuable as a trade commodity since teams won't get picks if they don't offer 12-13 million at the end the season.

Teams will have to assess the impact. Smart teams will take advantage of the new trade environment.

My guess is that any non-elite player in the last year of their contract will not bring much back in trades and have little value. In turn, players with a good contract may actually bring more value and teams should expect as much.

For the Twins, Span and Willingham should see an increase in their relative trade value while final year guys like Liriano, Doumit, Pavano will have little to no value. I am not sure where Capps and Morneau fit in the mix. They both have another year, but I am not sure if the terms would be viewed as a bargain.

I agree with all of those that caution the Twins against trading Span and Willingham. We need to get a a lot of value back. It is very unlikely that the Twins can reinvest that money this winter and get their production for the same dollars.

peterb18
06-13-2012, 11:32 PM
A couple of reasons: a. this team needs SPs really badly for 2013 and Span is probably the only piece who can get back a quality MLB-ready SP in a package and b. Revere is ready now and should be playing CF over Span anyways. You deal with RF in the offseason (and you have to, since they have no RF right now, just 2 CFs). Easier to find RFs than SPs.

I do agree that we need starting pitching--as most on this board. But, Span is developing into one of the best centerfielders in the American League. No way Revere(no arm and a Punch and Judy hitter) should be playing over Spann.--even though he is playing well. However, you know that your team is improving if Revere is a utility player. Therefore, the fastest way to improve this team is for the core to remain and the Pohlads to sign some free agent pitchers. Remember, when you are having over 30,000 paying customers each ballgame-- management has to try and field a competitive team. You must do this until the young core of players arrive.
We don't have a lot of trade material now. So we should follow the Cardinal model as we are mid-market team( like the Cards). Develop your base and sign a few key players each year. That is the most logical way to get to the top again. But, the Pohlads have to get salary base up again.