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View Full Version : Article: R.A. - The One That Got Away



Nick Nelson
06-07-2012, 07:41 PM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?635-R-A-The-One-That-Got-Away

Thrylos
06-07-2012, 07:49 PM
The timing of this is extremely funny. I have been having this to do thing in the back of my mind and look how many pitchers performed better when they left the Twins (and Andy) and/or after the Twins gave up on them. I just looked at this Millennium and only on MLB pitchers, so Peter Moylan, Sergio Santos et al are not included in the list. And I just did it minutes ago.

There are 20 (!!!) pitchers who actually performed better after they left the Twins. I think that this is pretty darn significant about the way the Twins deal with pitching. The full list is here (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2012/06/myth-busting-rich-anderson-legacy-or.html).

Enjoy

CDog
06-07-2012, 08:12 PM
The timing of this is extremely funny. I have been having this to do thing in the back of my mind and look how many pitchers performed better when they left the Twins (and Andy) and/or after the Twins gave up on them. I just looked at this Millennium and only on MLB pitchers, so Peter Moylan, Sergio Santos et al are not included in the list. And I just did it minutes ago.

There are 20 (!!!) pitchers who actually performed better after they left the Twins. I think that this is pretty darn significant about the way the Twins deal with pitching. The full list is here (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2012/06/myth-busting-rich-anderson-legacy-or.html).

Enjoy

There are a lot of posts that stretch truth to try and fit a point, but this and the included link stand out for the effort that went into it.

glunn
06-07-2012, 08:16 PM
The timing of this is extremely funny. I have been having this to do thing in the back of my mind and look how many pitchers performed better when they left the Twins (and Andy) and/or after the Twins gave up on them. I just looked at this Millennium and only on MLB pitchers, so Peter Moylan, Sergio Santos et al are not included in the list. And I just did it minutes ago.

There are 20 (!!!) pitchers who actually performed better after they left the Twins. I think that this is pretty darn significant about the way the Twins deal with pitching. The full list is here (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2012/06/myth-busting-rich-anderson-legacy-or.html).

Enjoy

Your analysis is very interesting thrylos, as always. But I wonder whether some of the improvement might be attributable to pitching in more pitcher-friendly ballparks than the Metrodome.

Thrylos
06-07-2012, 08:25 PM
Your analysis is very interesting thrylos, as always. But I wonder whether some of the improvement might be attributable to pitching in more pitcher-friendly ballparks than the Metrodome.

The funny thing about that is that if you look at the park factors, in the 2000s the Metrodome was about 100 (which is average), so it was considered a "pitcher's" park. Seriously.

Thrylos
06-07-2012, 08:26 PM
There are a lot of posts that stretch truth to try and fit a point, but this and the included link stand out for the effort that went into it.

any evidence to add to your claim, Toby?

Seth Stohs
06-07-2012, 08:30 PM
Wow, Thrylos... I'm not Rick Anderson fan and think he is vastly overrated, I don't think that this is completely fair.

I mean, Anderson's greatest work was helping Hawkins to figure things out. In reality, he deserves a ton of credit for helping Jesse Crain figure things out the year before he became a free agent.

Grant Balfour was clearly talented but he was hurt, Tommy John and shoulder surgery. It took him awhile to come back to full strength. Similarly, I find it hard to compare a guy like Mike Lincoln, who came up too quickly to make spot starts for the Twins out of necessity to a guy who, years later was a decent bullpen guy for a year or two. Mijares showed plenty of good in his years with the Twins... Let's see how he's doing in a few months. JC Romero started with the Twins as a stater. Once Andersen moved him to teh bullpen, he became dominant.

I could go on and on stating ways in whch it's not at all looking at apples to apples, including several 1.) switching to he NL, and 2.) simply having more experience thanks to the years of learning the big leagues with the TWins.

And I'm not even a Rick Andersen fan.

Seth Stohs
06-07-2012, 08:35 PM
Now on to what NIck actually wrote in this article... This is Nick at his best, by the way. I really enjoyed the article, and he's such a talented writer.

I found it interesting that the Twins actually signed him to a minor league contract a year earlier, but because they signed him so quickly to a minor league deal, he was able to be selected in the Rule 5 draft by Seattle, and when Seattle wanted to send him down, the M's sent Jair Fernandez to the Twins.

The next year, the Twins and Dickey waited until afte the Rule 5 draft to sign a minor league contract.

As for the question at hand, I can't blame the Twins for letting Dickey go. I don't think there were any (many) Twins fans that were disappointed when the TWins let him go. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, and the Twins sure could use Dickey! But I can't blame the Twins for not seeing this. And again, it's in the NL.

USAFChief
06-07-2012, 08:49 PM
A few thoughts:

1. Baseball is a funny game. Trying to predict an individual player's future is educated guesswork at best. Trying to predict the future of a mid-30's hurler without major league stuff, learning a new and difficult pitch, is even harder. You can't blame the Twins for looking at Dickey's past, and his work while with the team, and deciding to look elsewhere.

2. The knuckleball is a tough pitch to master. Not many can get the consistent release needed to ensure you're throwing a knuckleball almost every time, rather than 2 good knucklers followed by one which adds just a half a revolution or so on it's way to the plate and becomes a 65 MPH fastball with little movement. Knuckleballers often take years to learn their craft...but conversely, good ones can pitch for a long time. (Side note: Note that this matters, but I have a personal distaste for knuckleballers. In fact, I hate em. Ugly baseball, IMO. Which is not to say they can't be reasonably effective, I just prefer 98 at the knees on the black. I do agree Dickey is easy to root for on a personal level. Just not as a baseball player, for me anyway.)

3. While predicting baseball players is hard, predicting thrylos will show up with a half-cocked diatribe against Gardy and/or Anderson is actually quite easy.

BTW, I agree with Seith...Nice article, Nick.

Thrylos
06-07-2012, 09:01 PM
Wow, Thrylos... I'm not Rick Anderson fan and think he is vastly overrated, I don't think that this is completely fair.
.


, predicting thrylos will show up with a half-cocked diatribe against Gardy and/or Anderson is actually quite easy.
.

ok...
I take that as constructive criticism ;)

So... I gave y'all evidence of 20 pitchers who did better (and some flourished) after they left the Gardy and Andy mess. And numbers do not lie. Period. Unless y'all give me 20 or more pitchers who improved under Gardy and Andy, you got to take the truth and see the reality that these guys are hurting our team big time.

Just saying. Put up or shut up. (Isn't that how that saying goes?)
Thank you.

Ultima Ratio
06-07-2012, 09:49 PM
Thrylos, I don't find your thesis absurd. Yet, I'm also not willing to subscribe to it just yet either because I'm sure we can find several pitchers whom became better when with the Twins and worse upon leaving. I'm only going to look at dramatic (.5 ERA) differences when considering the pitcher as better or worse, because smaller amounts are a difference in degree not kind, and I think you are trying to expose how pitchers become a significantly better pitcher post Twins. I did look over your list carefully and have never figured out why we let Breslow go. Money? I don't recall. In summary, I enjoy an argumentative thesis, and you have an interesting one here, even if it's a little long on the claims and short on the evidence (I'm speaking of balance here).

Ultima Ratio
06-07-2012, 09:52 PM
Now if Marquis accrues a sub 3 ERA the rest of this season, I'll join to call for pitching coach 'adjustments'

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 10:00 PM
It is the job of the GM and coaches to predict how players will do, though, right? And if you miss too often, you end up winning 70 games in back to back years (giver or take).....At least thrylos is consistent, and tries to use facts to back up his opinion. I respect that, even if I don't always agree with the conclusions drawn. Many other people post accusations or other statements like they are true, when they are clearly not. If you don't agree with his logic, fight it with logic.

CDog
06-07-2012, 10:15 PM
Wow, Thrylos... I'm not Rick Anderson fan and think he is vastly overrated, I don't think that this is completely fair.

I mean, Anderson's greatest work was helping Hawkins to figure things out. In reality, he deserves a ton of credit for helping Jesse Crain figure things out the year before he became a free agent.

Grant Balfour was clearly talented but he was hurt, Tommy John and shoulder surgery. It took him awhile to come back to full strength. Similarly, I find it hard to compare a guy like Mike Lincoln, who came up too quickly to make spot starts for the Twins out of necessity to a guy who, years later was a decent bullpen guy for a year or two. Mijares showed plenty of good in his years with the Twins... Let's see how he's doing in a few months. JC Romero started with the Twins as a stater. Once Andersen moved him to teh bullpen, he became dominant.

I could go on and on stating ways in whch it's not at all looking at apples to apples, including several 1.) switching to he NL, and 2.) simply having more experience thanks to the years of learning the big leagues with the TWins.

And I'm not even a Rick Andersen fan.

All this. Plus, off the top of my head, no attempt to account for possible usage differences; no attempt to define "better;" no accounting for time actually spent with Twins vs. others vs. minors, etc; no filter for sample sizes; no accounting for when in career time with Twins/others was (before he "got it?" etc); no discussion or attempt to find reverse examples; no comparison of this list to the list that could be created for any other team or even for the Twins under different coaching staffs; no mention or accounting for pitchers who trended positively for the Twins and then continued that same trend after.

CDog
06-07-2012, 10:16 PM
3. While predicting baseball players is hard, predicting thrylos will show up with a half-cocked diatribe against Gardy and/or Anderson is actually quite easy.


Uh oh...wait a minute...did what I think happen happen? Am I Macho Man or Hogan here?

CDog
06-07-2012, 10:18 PM
Back on actual topic...I really liked Dickey during his stay with the Twins and it bummed me out that it was so short. I never really thought of it as a mistake since he didn't really pitch that well here. Maybe it was just that it was during my time with a beard that happened to make me look a LOT like him with my Twins hat on. Really happy he's having success post-Twins.

USAFChief
06-07-2012, 10:26 PM
ok...
I take that as constructive criticism ;)

So... I gave y'all evidence of 20 pitchers who did better (and some flourished) after they left the Gardy and Andy mess. And numbers do not lie. Period. Unless y'all give me 20 or more pitchers who improved under Gardy and Andy, you got to take the truth and see the reality that these guys are hurting our team big time.

Just saying. Put up or shut up. (Isn't that how that saying goes?)
Thank you.

1. Your "list" is laughable. Just to cherry pick a few names, your "evidence" includes the likes of:

Luis Ayala. Luis Ayala?? Ayala was actually slightly better in 2009 for the Twins than he was in the National League in 2008. And...he was worse in 2009 after he left the Twins and joined the Marlins. Now, granted he only pitched 7 2/3 innings for the Marlins, so I wouldn't normally even mention this, but since you brought him up, AND your list includes:

Joe Biemel, who pitched a total of 1.2 innings for the Twins...I feel justified. I say again...one point two innings. Five outs constitutes one of your 20 "examples."

Craig Breslow. Breslow's numbers with the Twins are almost identical to his post-Twins career.

Phil Humber. Humber pitched a total of 20.2 innings for the Twins, spread out over 2 seasons, during which time he was battling arm problems often. He did have a nice season with the Sox in 2010, but he's currently sitting at a 5.68 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP despite the perfect game.

Mike Lincoln. Livan Hernandez. Matt Garza as a 22/23 yr old. I could go on, but is that really necessary?

2. I'm too lazy, but Anderson has been the Twins pitching coach since 2002. I bet if someone wanted to take the time, for any major league pitching coach with a 10 yr career, you could find some examples of pitchers who went on to have better success somewhere else. Your list, as noted, is laughably weak. If anything, that list shows how few Twins pitchers have been markedly better after leaving. Further, if I wasn't so lazy, I bet I could find 20 pitchers who were better under Anderson. Hell, I found 1 (Ayala) who was immediately better under Anderson on YOUR list, and I think you could add Burton to that list just from this year's team, just off the top of my head.

Paul
06-07-2012, 10:47 PM
Good for Dickey. He's one of the good guys.

Thrylos, like everything else in the universe, the quality of a pitcher's ability is not static. It's either improving or degrading. I have no idea how many pitchers have passed through the current coaching staff's hands, but I suspect it's a lot. It's not too surprising that you were able to easily find 20 out of that group that improved after they left. Unfortunately the coaching staff has to deal with the here and now in addition to predicting and responding to the the odds on the future ability of every pitcher. Some times it's just a numbers game.

p.s. Gardy sends his love.

twinsnorth49
06-07-2012, 10:51 PM
It is the job of the GM and coaches to predict how players will do, though, right? And if you miss too often, you end up winning 70 games in back to back years (giver or take).....At least thrylos is consistent, and tries to use facts to back up his opinion. I respect that, even if I don't always agree with the conclusions drawn. Many other people post accusations or other statements like they are true, when they are clearly not. If you don't agree with his logic, fight it with logic.


It's inductive logic, which claims nothing more than something being likely to be true. If the premise is true, then therefore, so is the conclusion. The only caveat is that the inductive process has to be used correctly and in this case it is not. It is far to convenient, it's really a generalization to conclude that the reason for the change in statistics is due to a change in coaching staffs. It also leaves out all of the pitchers who had success under Anderson and Gardy, by eliminating all of that empirical data it fails under the microscope of correct reasoning. It's illogical. All this represents is a simplistic comparison of stats to attempt to prove a predetermined, inference based conclusion. Or simply put, his opinion.:confused::cool::cool:

nicksaviking
06-07-2012, 11:07 PM
It would be hard to dispute Thrylos' figures pitcher for pitcher because the Twins lose more pitchers than they sign in free agency. The Twins are much more likely to promote from within. I also don't mean to advocate for Rick Anderson, he's a great guy but I'm not sure he's getting the job done any longer. That said off the top of my head I can think of Burton and Gray who have improved with the Twins. The same goes for last decade stalwarts Nathan and Guerrier. It would be hard to pick starters for his defense as the only free agent starters this team signs are veterans on the downside of their career, though you could argue Pavano has had his best success with the Twins since his couple of decent years a decade ago.

As for pitchers who pitched worse after leaving the Twins, I can think of Eric Milton, Mark Redmon, Juan Rincon, Boof Bonser, Eddie Guardado, Carlos Silva and while still good, not as good Johan Santana.

Ultima Ratio
06-07-2012, 11:18 PM
It's inductive logic, which claims nothing more than something being likely to be true. If the premise is true, then therefore, so is the conclusion.

Just a gentle pedantic correction: Only with valid (deductive) arguments is it true that the truth of the premises guarantee the truth of the conclusion. You had it correct the first time about the likelihood of truth for the inductive argument, that is until we are confronted with David Hume's analysis of induction as habit. :)

Shane Wahl
06-07-2012, 11:35 PM
Anyway . . .

One of Nick's best articles, I think. I cheer for Dickey and I am glad to see the success for him now. I do wish that the Twins would have kept him, obviously.

twinsnorth49
06-07-2012, 11:42 PM
Just a gentle pedantic correction: Only with valid (deductive) arguments is it true that the truth of the premises guarantee the truth of the conclusion. You had it correct the first time about the likelihood of truth for the inductive argument, that is until we are confronted with David Hume's analysis of induction as habit. :)

You're right, thank you. It should have read, "It's likely that if the premises are true then therefore so are the conclusions. Though not logically required.

Personallly I'm starting to think that Thrylos believes in Reinchenbach's attempt of "pragmatic justification of induction", in that, if there is any chance of something happening based on what has happened then we are justified in reasoning inductively since it's guaranteed to work if anything would.

But I agree with Hume.:)

Rosterman
06-07-2012, 11:44 PM
If anything, makes me wonder why the Twins gave up on some guys too soon. Salary? Arbitration? Make 40-man roster room and the guy gets grabbed by someone else. BUT THE NUMBERS ARE FASCINATING!

Shane Wahl
06-07-2012, 11:50 PM
You're right, thank you. It should have read, "It's likely that if the premises are true then therefore so are the conclusions. Though not logically required.

Personallly I'm starting to think that Thrylos believes in Reinchenbach's attempt of "pragmatic justification of induction", in that, if there is any chance of something happening based on what has happened then we are justified in reasoning inductively since it's guaranteed to work if anything would.

But I agree with Hume.:)

Whoa. I will drop the PhD in Philosophy bomb here (which might explain why I spend so much time on a baseball site . . . ), but I have to at this point to note how impressed I am at the use of philosophers of logic and science in baseball threads. Damn.

twinsnorth49
06-07-2012, 11:53 PM
Whoa. I will drop the PhD in Philosophy bomb here (which might explain why I spend so much time on a baseball site . . . ), but I have to at this point to note how impressed I am at the use of philosophers of logic and science in baseball threads. Damn.

Really, you have a PHD in Philosophy?.......now I'm just embarrassed.

old nurse
06-08-2012, 01:31 AM
Matt Guerrier did not fare so well after leaving the Twins would be another example of Twins pitchers leaving without success .
Also note the lack of A list pitchers in the list. They look better on cherry picked statistics, but not none were perennial All Stars. Merely better than average in some cases for a year or two.
Factors that caused some of these players to leave should be considered. Baseball is about money paid to players, there is only so much to go around. I am sure the Twins would have loved to keep Jesse Crain if it were on talent alone. They chose to spend elsewhere. Garza for Young ended up a bad trade. If Young would have hit his potential here, we would not have minded losing a solid starter. Money for Garza versus the potential that Slowey and Blackburn showed made the trade possible. It failed. A case could be made for Loshe. Traded for a mid level prospect was a bad trade.

Shane Wahl
06-08-2012, 01:38 AM
It would be hard to dispute Thrylos' figures pitcher for pitcher because the Twins lose more pitchers than they sign in free agency. The Twins are much more likely to promote from within. I also don't mean to advocate for Rick Anderson, he's a great guy but I'm not sure he's getting the job done any longer. That said off the top of my head I can think of Burton and Gray who have improved with the Twins. The same goes for last decade stalwarts Nathan and Guerrier. It would be hard to pick starters for his defense as the only free agent starters this team signs are veterans on the downside of their career, though you could argue Pavano has had his best success with the Twins since his couple of decent years a decade ago.

As for pitchers who pitched worse after leaving the Twins, I can think of Eric Milton, Mark Redmon, Juan Rincon, Boof Bonser, Eddie Guardado, Carlos Silva and while still good, not as good Johan Santana.

Ulgh. More detailed and subtle analysis is needed here to really judge a pitching coach. Players progress and regress for ALL SORTS of reasons.

gil4
06-08-2012, 07:51 AM
I don't think there were any (many) Twins fans that were disappointed when the TWins let him go.

It seems to me that there were quite a few that were disappointed - I know I was. I wasn't critical of the move, just disappointed it didn't work out because the knuckleball is a fun pitch to watch. I don't think it's fair to criticize Anderson for failing to help him succeed when the book on developing knuckleballers is very thin. I remember at the time someone did some analysis on the movement on his pitches using pitch f/x data and concluded that there might not have been enough movement to consistently fool MLB hitters. I'm sure there were plenty of caveats in the article about limited data for comparison, but at least it showed there were definitely reasonable people who had doubts about his ability to make it.

I didn't have time to track down that article, but if anyone remembers it and has a link it would be interesting to re-read it.

nicksaviking
06-08-2012, 08:16 AM
Ulgh. More detailed and subtle analysis is needed here to really judge a pitching coach. Players progress and regress for ALL SORTS of reasons.

That was kind of my point. I didn't think it was fair to judge Anderson based on the original list of players and I could just as arbitrarily list guys who would seem to be on the other end of the specturm.

mike wants wins
06-08-2012, 08:56 AM
twinsnorth49: now that is a logical argument that I can respect. That is not what thrylos usually gets back though, he usually just gets called names or somesuch. Like I said, I don't always agree with his process or conclusions, but at least he tries to use logic in his work, rather than just making statements as if they were factual. And for the most part, I don't think he calls others names or ridicules them for their posts either. And, given that he and I spent the last two years pretty much disagreeing on Seth's site, I can't believe I just made two posts in one thread defending him.

gunnarthor
06-08-2012, 09:32 AM
So... I gave y'all evidence of 20 pitchers who did better (and some flourished) after they left the Gardy and Andy mess. And numbers do not lie. Period. Unless y'all give me 20 or more pitchers who improved under Gardy and Andy, you got to take the truth and see the reality that these guys are hurting our team big time.

Just saying. Put up or shut up. (Isn't that how that saying goes?)
Thank you.

Well, I think you certainly found ways to make numbers lie. Look at Lohse, for example. You show a few rate stats that suggest he's been better in St. Louis under uber-pitching coach Duncan. But you ignore things like IP, park factors and even the switch to the NL. WAR (and WAR has TONS of problems) shows that, while their adjusted ERA was roughly the same, Lohse's career WAR in MN was nearly double what he's done in St. Louis 5.5 vs 2.8. (St Louis also payed him over 33m for that while we paid him 7.3m). Same problem again with Romero who threw over 400 innings, out of a career total of about 600, with the Twins yet your only "analysis" is rate stats.

You also included Redman who was traded before Anderson became our pitching coach (solid analysis for the guy who thought Smalley wasn't on the 87 Twins team).

As others indicated, you also failed to do any study the other way - pitchers that got better. Guys like Guerrier, Reyes, Breslow, Burton, Nathan all got better when they came to the Twins.

StormJH1
06-08-2012, 09:32 AM
I don't fault the Twins for letting him go, but I do remember liking him, and there were stretches where he wasn't really THAT bad. If he put up his '09 performance on THIS year's Twins team, we'd be celebrating him.

Still, he had zero track record for success prior to the Twins, and he had a 4.2 BB/9 and 1.62 WHIP for us. In his three years with the Mets, he basically cut his walks in half, which I would imagine is a big key to his success. And yes, he only got one start even though our rotation that year was not all that great, and he's ill suited to be a reliever. I might actually read his book, I think he's one of the more fascinating stories in baseball. It wasn't even discovered he was missing the UCL until somebody spotted him holding his elbow at strange angle in a USA baseball team photo.

DAM DC Twins Fans
06-08-2012, 09:41 AM
Back to original topic--great article on RA Dickey by Nick. I am one of those who is not a knuckle ball fan--it is an ugly pitch and leads to ugly games with passed balls and wild pitches. But good for RA for making it with the Mets.

As to whether guys got better when leaving Rick Anderson--sure Lohse did under Duncan--but in NL pitchers have lower ERAs cause they face the opposing pitcher. Nathan certainly improved under Anderson. Others like Humber didnt really get an opportunity here...as someone pointed out we traded Garza for Delmon...turned out to be a really bad trade that is not Anderson's fault.

cr9617
06-08-2012, 10:08 AM
twinsnorth49: now that is a logical argument that I can respect. That is not what thrylos usually gets back though, he usually just gets called names or somesuch. Like I said, I don't always agree with his process or conclusions, but at least he tries to use logic in his work, rather than just making statements as if they were factual. And for the most part, I don't think he calls others names or ridicules them for their posts either. And, given that he and I spent the last two years pretty much disagreeing on Seth's site, I can't believe I just made two posts in one thread defending him.

I'm not going to call Thrylos any names. He's a passionate Twins fan;somewhat delusional and over the top, and often times lacking objectivity in his points. Example? Thrylos picked the Twins to win the Central, beat the Yanks in the postseason, and go on to win the World Series in 2012. And he was serious...

I guess my point is....Don't take anything Thrylos says seriously. He does try and use logic in what he says, it just happens to be twisted logic that's not always based in reality.

spideyo
06-08-2012, 10:14 AM
Now on to what NIck actually wrote in this article... This is Nick at his best, by the way. I really enjoyed the article, and he's such a talented writer.

I found it interesting that the Twins actually signed him to a minor league contract a year earlier, but because they signed him so quickly to a minor league deal, he was able to be selected in the Rule 5 draft by Seattle, and when Seattle wanted to send him down, the M's sent Jair Fernandez to the Twins.

The next year, the Twins and Dickey waited until afte the Rule 5 draft to sign a minor league contract.

As for the question at hand, I can't blame the Twins for letting Dickey go. I don't think there were any (many) Twins fans that were disappointed when the TWins let him go. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, and the Twins sure could use Dickey! But I can't blame the Twins for not seeing this. And again, it's in the NL.

I was disappointed they let him go. Extremely so. But I'm a big fan of guys who don't fit the traditional molds in their positions. I'm still fascinated and intrigued by his complete lack of a UCL. He won't ever need to Tommy John surgery, because there is NOTHING THERE to replace or repair. Think about that. He is actually MISSING a key component of his pitching arm.

mike wants wins
06-08-2012, 10:18 AM
On topic, I love knuckelballers, and was a bit bummed when they let him go. I also wanted to see him more as a starter. That said, I don't really fault them for the decision making process here.

Shane Wahl
06-08-2012, 10:50 AM
Really, you have a PHD in Philosophy?.......now I'm just embarrassed.

Why be embarrassed? Maybe I should be as an adjunct with another job and a Twins Daily addiction?

Hater
06-08-2012, 10:50 AM
That list is pretty weak. Almost all of them are Bullpen guys. But let's backtrack for a second. Glad R.A Dickey is dominating in the friendly confines of Citi Field where it's impossible to hit a jack in the weak National League where you don't even have to face Prince Fielder and Albert Poo anymore. I remember watching RA Dickey pitch and the only thing that was remotely good about him was that he didn't need to warm up to pitch. He sucked, glad he is pitching well in AAAA ball, he obviously has improved his knuckle ball which takes a lot of time to perfect. As for the list if you think there is some overall major issue with the Twins because 15 bullpen guys pitched better in their later stints well you are a jackanape then sir. Half of those guys pitched well for the Twins in any case or were injured. A big BOO URNS!

Shane Wahl
06-08-2012, 11:28 AM
You are aptly named, Hater.

nicksaviking
06-08-2012, 11:57 AM
I'm not up to date on new internet deriding, is the insult jackanape really back in fashion, or is Shakespeare once again required reading in school?

strumdatjag
06-08-2012, 12:21 PM
Someday, I hope to read a story about a born-again Buddhist baseball player, or recalcitrant atheist athlete, or the formation of the Fellowship of Hindu Athletes. Those would be remarkable.

nicksaviking
06-08-2012, 12:44 PM
Would the old House of David baseball team suffice? That was a pretty interesting group of players from the early 1900's. How the catcher didn't step on his beard when he squated behind the plate was a pretty amazing feat.

twinsnorth49
06-08-2012, 01:29 PM
I'm not up to date on new internet deriding, is the insult jackanape really back in fashion, or is Shakespeare once again required reading in school?

It is if you're still a fan of Strongbad and the Cheat.

Cap'n Piranha
06-08-2012, 01:30 PM
How about the ultimate comeback to "Rick Anderson makes pitchers worse"...one Johan Santana.

Before being selected in the rule 5 draft, Santana never pitched above A ball, compiling a 15-18 record across 294 innings (54 appearances, 48 starts). His ERA was 5.05, with a 1.39 WHIP, while compiling 274 strikeouts compared to 103 walks (8.4 k/9, 2.66 k/BB). He also gave up 26 homers (1 homer every 11.1 innings).

With the Twins (excluding his brief stint in 2002 in AAA), Santana had a 93-44 record in 1308.1 innings (251 appearances, 175 starts). His ERA was 3.22, with a 1.09 WHIP, while putting up 1381 strikeouts against 364 walks (9.5 k/9, 3.79 k/BB). He gave up 144 big flies (1 homer every 9 innings).

With the Mets, Santana is 43-27 in 668 innings (99 appearances, all starts). His ERA is 2.80, with a 1.16 WHIP, while getting 564 strikeouts and surrendering 185 walks (7.6 k/9, 3.05 k/BB), with 63 homers (1 every 10.2 innings).

The only stats Johan has been better at with the Mets is ERA and homers/9. HOWEVER, if you take only the seasons where Santana was a starter for the Twins, you get the following;

70-32, 2.89 ERA, .99 WHIP, 912.1 IP, 983 k, 198 BB (9.7k/9, 4.96 k/BB), 103 HR (1/9IP).

So the Mets Santana is ahead on the same numbers, but not by much, while the other numbers with the Twins dwarf those with the Mets. This is only one example, but this is a clear-cut scenario where Santana was much better with the Twins than either before or after.

gunnarthor
06-08-2012, 01:43 PM
How about the ultimate comeback to "Rick Anderson makes pitchers worse"...one Johan Santana.

Before being selected in the rule 5 draft, Santana never pitched above A ball, compiling a 15-18 record across 294 innings (54 appearances, 48 starts). His ERA was 5.05, with a 1.39 WHIP, while compiling 274 strikeouts compared to 103 walks (8.4 k/9, 2.66 k/BB). He also gave up 26 homers (1 homer every 11.1 innings).

With the Twins (excluding his brief stint in 2002 in AAA), Santana had a 93-44 record in 1308.1 innings (251 appearances, 175 starts). His ERA was 3.22, with a 1.09 WHIP, while putting up 1381 strikeouts against 364 walks (9.5 k/9, 3.79 k/BB). He gave up 144 big flies (1 homer every 9 innings).

With the Mets, Santana is 43-27 in 668 innings (99 appearances, all starts). His ERA is 2.80, with a 1.16 WHIP, while getting 564 strikeouts and surrendering 185 walks (7.6 k/9, 3.05 k/BB), with 63 homers (1 every 10.2 innings).

The only stats Johan has been better at with the Mets is ERA and homers/9. HOWEVER, if you take only the seasons where Santana was a starter for the Twins, you get the following;

70-32, 2.89 ERA, .99 WHIP, 912.1 IP, 983 k, 198 BB (9.7k/9, 4.96 k/BB), 103 HR (1/9IP).

So the Mets Santana is ahead on the same numbers, but not by much, while the other numbers with the Twins dwarf those with the Mets. This is only one example, but this is a clear-cut scenario where Santana was much better with the Twins than either before or after.

Cueller is responsible for all of Santana's sucess. Liriano's too (although it's Anderson's fault when he's bad).

James Richter
06-08-2012, 02:45 PM
Whoa. I will drop the PhD in Philosophy bomb here (which might explain why I spend so much time on a baseball site . . . ), but I have to at this point to note how impressed I am at the use of philosophers of logic and science in baseball threads. Damn.
I think Dickey (and his buddy Slowey) would be proud to see himself discussed with such erudition. Like the anti-Souhan. Maybe we should start a book club!

one_eyed_jack
06-08-2012, 03:18 PM
Good as always, Nick. While I prefer it were with the Twins, I'm glad to see RA having success given all the stuff he's opened up about.

As for the thrylos list, It's kind of like reading an editorial written by a hardcore member of one of the two major political parties about a candidate from the other. It's supported by facts and passion, but it's far too biased, selective and anecdotal to constitute the damning indictment of Anderson he concludes it is.

You need to account for other variables that impact a pitcher's performance (as the pitching coach is not the only one or even the primary one), and at least attempt to balance it out with counterexamples. And while I don't have the time to do it, if one were so inclined, I would be that you could put together a similar list for just about any team for the last dozen years. You can't have a 100-man roster. Decisions have to be made about who to keep and who to let go. Inevitably, some guys you let go will catch on elsewhere and have some success.

Also, it seems to me that if you're going to assess Anderson as a pitching coach, you'd at least want to take a peek at how his guys have fared relative to the competition. The Twins have pretty consistently ranked among the better teams in the AL in pitching, so I don't think the guy is completely worthless.

And I say this as someone who favors bringing in a new coaching staff next year. Not becuase I'm in the "Gardy/Vavra/Anderson are idiots" crowd, I think they've all been solid, but I think things have gotten a bit stale, and it's time for a change.

jokin
06-08-2012, 03:47 PM
I also don't mean to advocate for Rick Anderson, he's a great guy but I'm not sure he's getting the job done any longer.

As for pitchers who pitched worse after leaving the Twins, I can think of Eric Milton, Mark Redmon, Juan Rincon, Boof Bonser, Eddie Guardado, Carlos Silva and while still good, not as good Johan Santana.

It's always interesting when both sides of the argument are true.

Johan's WAR for 2003-2007: 31.3 (#1 ranking for P)
Joahn's WAR for 2008-2012: 12.7 (Scott Baker is 12.2 over the same time frame)



Time for the Thrylos breakdown of Dan Warthen and the Mets.

nicksaviking
06-08-2012, 04:27 PM
It is if you're still a fan of Strongbad and the Cheat.

Good lord, I had to google that. I guess I don't get out enough, and by that I mean stay in and watch internet cartoons!

TwinVike61
06-08-2012, 04:51 PM
Good lord, I had to google that. I guess I don't get out enough, and by that I mean stay in and watch internet cartoons!

Wow, I'm glad I'm not the only one who had no idea what that referred to...

ashburyjohn
06-08-2012, 05:14 PM
Wow, I'm glad I'm not the only one who had no idea what that referred to...

You haven't lived until you've been forced to watch multiple episodes of Teen Girl Squad with your 14 year old daughter. "I HAVE A CRUSH ON EVERY BOY!!!!!!!!"

twinsnorth49
06-08-2012, 05:22 PM
Good lord, I had to google that. I guess I don't get out enough, and by that I mean stay in and watch internet cartoons!

Good lord, nice assumptions cool guy. Clearly you've never spent much time on the internet at all.

jokin
06-08-2012, 05:25 PM
Good lord, nice assumptions cool guy. Clearly you've never spent much time on the internet at all.

Or some others have spent too much...?

twinsnorth49
06-08-2012, 05:38 PM
Or some others have spent too much...?

Well it's nice to see you're finally keeping up.

Krogher
06-09-2012, 06:01 AM
I picked him up during my fantasy-team draft for $1. I now know what the Vikes felt like when they got Cris Carter!

birdwatcher
06-09-2012, 02:52 PM
Classic thrylos "analysis". One-sided garbage to support a belief. Intellectually dishonest crap.