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View Full Version : Should Dozier stay up?



IdahoPilgrim
06-07-2012, 07:43 AM
OK, with last night's performance, I'm starting to ask if it's time to make an adjustment and send Dozier back down for more seasoning. He started off hot, but both his bat and (especially) his fielding have tailed off the past couple of weeks. He's been up here for about a month now, and has 8 errors. He's made some spectacular plays, too, but that doesn't cover not making the ones that should be made.

I know there is an argument to be made that he should be given a chance to work this out up here in the bigs. Give him more time to adjust to major league pitching and learning how to field. Given we are not contenders this season, maybe that's OK; losing a few extra games won't hurt that much (although I love to win regardless). I also don't know what the corresponding move would be, who'd you would bring up. Carroll can go back over to short, but it's not as if we have a bunch of middle infielders knocking on the door at Rochester. But now that our starting pitching is starting to turn around a little bit, don't we owe it to them to give them the best defense possible?

Thoughts?

tpb8
06-07-2012, 08:03 AM
Yes. If he gets sent down, who takes his place? The Twins are playing well right now and Dozier is just a young kid taking his lumps. He'll be fine.

clutterheart
06-07-2012, 08:10 AM
Dozier is not so young and scouts always questioned his ability to make plays at SS. If he makes errors AND can't hit Gardy will struggle to find excuses to leave him at SS.

But I wouldn't mind seeing him at 2B and see if he can't play there now and again.

Cap'n Piranha
06-07-2012, 08:25 AM
Dozier is not so young and scouts always questioned his ability to make plays at SS. If he makes errors AND can't hit Gardy will struggle to find excuses to leave him at SS.

But I wouldn't mind seeing him at 2B and see if he can't play there now and again.

Dozier is 25, and has been for less than a month, so that's still fairly young. He never will be a superstar, and the errors certainly are a bit troubling for someone who was billed as a guy who will "make the routine plays". That being said, it's worth remembering that at this time last year Dozier was in Fort Myers, so to go from there to everyday shortstop in the Bigs is pretty good. If we had some other young guy worth trying out, I'd say sure, let's give them a chance. But right now, this season is about seeing if we can compete and win with young guys, which means Dozier and Plouffe need to be playing SS and 3B respectively 5-6 times a week.

Loosey
06-07-2012, 08:40 AM
They showed a stat during the game last night. He batted something like .290 during his first 7 games, then .130 during his next 10 or so, but over the last 8 he has hit .350 (all approximations). He is a rookie and will be inconsistent. I say keep him up here and let him sink or swim.

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 08:45 AM
Isn't plouffe the same age or so, but people gave up on his defense pretty fast....that said, no, he should not be sent down. Now is the time to play with youth.

John Bonnes
06-07-2012, 08:48 AM
He showed enough defensively early that I'm hoping his play lately is an aberration - taking his at-bats into the field with him. But I'm not sure that he wouldn't regain his confidence more quickly if he was in Rochester. I can handle him struggling at the plate, but he has to quit crapping his pants in the field.

twinsnorth49
06-07-2012, 08:49 AM
I think the best course of action is to leave Dozier where he is right now. He has shown some ability to make some adjustments at the plate but he is definitely still a work in progress. Defensively I think he'll pull it together again, sometimes players go through these things but I think he's already shown he can make the plays, it's only been 30 games. Eventually he's going to move to 2B anyway, he's keeping the SS seat warm for Florimon and will move there on a regular basis once they get rid of Casilla.

stringer bell
06-07-2012, 08:58 AM
I don't know if I could say that Dozier has made a lot of spectacular plays. He looked like he would be steady and reliable when he arrived, but has had a prolonged hiccup of unacceptable defense at short. I don't think his poor defense will continue and it probably helps his confidence that he hasn't been benched despite his poor defensive play. Over the course of a season, players go through bad stretches. IIRC, Dozier has had less than stellar stretches with the bat before. I think the kid is a keeper and continued playing time will iron out some of the kinks.

peterb18
06-07-2012, 09:11 AM
I do think that he is not the shortstop of the future. More of a 2nd baseman. However, Coomer has been talking a bit about him using the opposite field--maybe they are changing his swing--ala Hardy. This could cause lapses in the field. Just a theory!

Mauerzy4Prez
06-07-2012, 10:05 AM
The Bull "Dozier" as I like to call him is going to be a good everyday player but I have a hard time believing he can be All Star caliber. I think when you look at how he started out it proves that he can hit the fast and straight stuff... once the reports went out he struggled. It looks like his adjustments at the plate are starting to pay off again, and hopefully he can keep driving the ball. Defensively I am not overly impressed (that missed routine play he made behind second base last night was BAD)... I think Dozier will keep hitting well and boost his confidence, which will in turn allow him to loosen up and make more plays in the field.

Shane Wahl
06-07-2012, 10:13 AM
Well, I wouldn't mind seeing him at 2B, perhaps. This would hurt Casilla (who at the very least, aside from a few games' mental errors, has been great defensively) since Gardenhire, for whatever reason, doesn't think Casilla can play SS. I would not send Dozier down to Rochester.

Mauerzy4Prez
06-07-2012, 10:26 AM
Well, I wouldn't mind seeing him at 2B, perhaps. This would hurt Casilla (who at the very least, aside from a few games' mental errors, has been great defensively) since Gardenhire, for whatever reason, doesn't think Casilla can play SS. I would not send Dozier down to Rochester.

I don't think playing 2nd is a bad idea either... but something is clearly stopping Gardy from putting Casilla at short on an everyday basis. Who knows, Casilla may have told him that he would rather play second... HEY Remember that "All-Star" "MVP" caliber Japanese second basemen we scouted and paid something like $15million to??? Yeah, me neither...

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 10:26 AM
Casilla is not a good MLB player. Really, he's not young, a good hitter, or good fielder. He's just not good. Gardenhire doesn't think Casilla can play SS, because he's a bad MLB player. Just go look at the stats, year after year.

Mr. Ed
06-07-2012, 10:33 AM
I don't think playing 2nd is a bad idea either... but something is clearly stopping Gardy from putting Casilla at short on an everyday basis. Who knows, Casilla may have told him that he would rather play second... HEY Remember that "All-Star" "MVP" caliber Japanese second basemen we scouted and paid something like $15million to??? Yeah, me neither...

You mean the .218 average .269 SLG in AAA?

Nope, don't recall. Neither does the scout who recommended signing him.

Mauerzy4Prez
06-07-2012, 10:37 AM
You mean the .218 average .269 SLG in AAA?

Nope, don't recall. Neither does the scout who recommended signing him.

Is that scout even employed by the Twins anymore? I don't even know why we are wasting quality at bats and everyday playing time with him and holding back other prospects that can actually take coaching and improve their game...

IdahoPilgrim
06-07-2012, 10:40 AM
Casilla is not a good MLB player. Really, he's not young, a good hitter, or good fielder. He's just not good. Gardenhire doesn't think Casilla can play SS, because he's a bad MLB player. Just go look at the stats, year after year.

I have to respectfully disagree. Is he an everyday starter? Probably not. But he could be a decent utility middle infielder. He's better at 2nd than short, but his defensive numbers are similar at either. Career he's averaging .250 hitting - if he can get back to that this year (and he isn't too far away) he can fit on the bench nicely.

Shane Wahl
06-07-2012, 10:42 AM
Casilla is fine defensively. But he is not going to be on the 2013 Twins.

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 10:45 AM
That wasn't the arguments, he's a fine utility guy, but that's not what people were saying above. People keep saying, or suggesting, he's a legit starter, and he's just not. And, batting average? What about OBP and SLG? sorry, not buying it. He is what we've seen for years now, a below average MLB player who should be a backup player.

Mauerzy4Prez
06-07-2012, 10:49 AM
My point about him being a starter was relative to the teams current situation... Of course his career numbers make him a better fit as a utility type guy, and his clutch hitting I would argue make him especially a better bench player. Right now, who else do we have that could be an everyday starter on the big club or in the farm system, that you think legitimately should get a shot over Alexi? That's a serious question too...

Boom Boom
06-07-2012, 10:50 AM
Should Dozier work on some things at AAA? Probably.

I don't see who you call up to replace him though. The other potential left-side infielders on the 40-man are Nishioka and Valencia, who've both been awful at AAA. The only infielder warranting a call up is Parmelee, and calling him up would limit defensive options.

jimbo92107
06-07-2012, 10:59 AM
Dozier stays. His mentality is tough, so he'll learn enough this season to survive in the bigs, then come back better next season. Fielding errors are just a matter of getting more reps, then they'll mostly go away. Dozier is going to be a solid SS, but he IS a rookie, and rookies do make mistakes. Practice, practice, practice.

twinsnorth49
06-07-2012, 11:08 AM
That wasn't the arguments, he's a fine utility guy, but that's not what people were saying above. People keep saying, or suggesting, he's a legit starter, and he's just not. And, batting average? What about OBP and SLG? sorry, not buying it. He is what we've seen for years now, a below average MLB player who should be a backup player.

I don't read anyone above arguing Casilla is a legit starter, a couple of guys said he has been fine defensively (which he has) but other than that I don't see anyone advocating for him to play everyday. Right now he's at least a left handed batting option while Mauer is out.

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 11:26 AM
fair enough, I misread the comments then. I just want him replaced next year, as a starter. Not sure how that is done, while also fixing the pitching and 3B and maybe 1B....

Mauerzy4Prez
06-07-2012, 11:32 AM
fair enough, I misread the comments then. I just want him replaced next year, as a starter. Not sure how that is done, while also fixing the pitching and 3B and maybe 1B....

Who would you replace him with? Either from our current system, or going out and getting somebody? I'm not sure where our middle infield depth is at in the farm system and really am tired of seeing the revolving door of "veteran" FA infielders each and every year... We just should have kept O-dog and had him play short until Dozier was ready.

spideyo
06-07-2012, 11:37 AM
I think the only way Dozier gets sent down is if Valencia and/or Burroughs is ready to be an everyday 3b. If you take Dozier out of the equation, our starting IF right now is Plouffe-Carroll-Casilla. Do we really want to do that?

twinslover
06-07-2012, 12:21 PM
Sending Dozier to AAA isn't going to do him any good at this point. Most of his errors have been mental lapses and it seems pretty clear that his slump at the plate is effecting his defense, just like nearly every other rookie I've ever seen. The only way he's going to make the adjustments to major league baseball is by playing major league baseball.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-07-2012, 12:22 PM
Who would you replace him with? Either from our current system, or going out and getting somebody? I'm not sure where our middle infield depth is at in the farm system and really am tired of seeing the revolving door of "veteran" FA infielders each and every year... We just should have kept O-dog and had him play short until Dozier was ready.

I don't think anyone thought much of Dozier, who was a 24 year old at Ft. Myers, before this year. The Twins were never waiting for him to be ready because no one expected him to make the majors. I'll take Casilla over Hudson thank you very much.

greengoblinrulz
06-07-2012, 03:12 PM
When UZR defensive stats came aboard a few yrs ago....I stopped using errors as the sole meter for defense.
Official scoring in MLB games is horrible & I cannot gauge a player on those anymore.
Dozier is 15th of 26 SSs (via Fangraphs) in defense (250INN....Brian's amt). There is nothing wrong with his play so far. He's missed some plays, he's made some plays.
Offensively, he's fine. .952OPS vs LHP so far .554 vs RHP. Needs to play everyday right now & see how he progresses.

Dilligaf69
06-07-2012, 03:21 PM
Keep him here, he needs to learn and we need a long term answer at SS... Is Dozier it??? IDK but sending him to AAA won't give us the answer.

Dilligaf69
06-07-2012, 03:23 PM
I don't think anyone thought much of Dozier, who was a 24 year old at Ft. Myers, before this year. The Twins were never waiting for him to be ready because no one expected him to make the majors. I'll take Casilla over Hudson thank you very much.




Me too...easily!

CDog
06-07-2012, 03:41 PM
When UZR defensive stats came aboard a few yrs ago....I stopped using errors as the sole meter for defense.
Official scoring in MLB games is horrible & I cannot gauge a player on those anymore.
Dozier is 15th of 26 SSs (via Fangraphs) in defense (250INN....Brian's amt). There is nothing wrong with his play so far. He's missed some plays, he's made some plays.
Offensively, he's fine. .952OPS vs LHP so far .554 vs RHP. Needs to play everyday right now & see how he progresses.

You likely know this, but some may not...I think most would agree that errors alone is a bit of a broadsword tool when a scalpel is more appropriate, but I think most agree that the more advanced defensive stats are very volatile without quite large sample sizes (like full seasons or even more). Using them still might be better than errors, but one needs to be careful with quarter-season-sized data.

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 04:17 PM
Well, since I said "not sure how that's done", I don't have a suggestion in June of what they should do at 2B next year just yet. And, I'd rather they get some pitching first, so who knows, maybe we get to watch Casilla again next year, and wonder just when the young guy will finally reach his prime.... :)

Montecore
06-07-2012, 04:58 PM
Bench him for a bit and play Carroll there. The errors and non-error errors are demoralizing to team morale.

James
06-07-2012, 05:12 PM
When UZR defensive stats came aboard a few yrs ago....I stopped using errors as the sole meter for defense.
Official scoring in MLB games is horrible & I cannot gauge a player on those anymore.
Dozier is 15th of 26 SSs (via Fangraphs) in defense (250INN....Brian's amt). There is nothing wrong with his play so far. He's missed some plays, he's made some plays.
Offensively, he's fine. .952OPS vs LHP so far .554 vs RHP. Needs to play everyday right now & see how he progresses.
Agreed. I hate errors as a stat. UZR is much better. Dozier is doing fine. Keep him up.

My favorite comment about errors: You have to do something right before you get charged with an error.

twinzgrl
06-07-2012, 05:51 PM
I went to Scheel's a few weeks ago and wanted to buy a Dozier T shirt. The manager told me that he wanted to be sure Dozier was going to stick before ordering a bunch of shirts with his name on them (he'd been stuck with a bunch of Hughes shirts). I like the guy, and THIS is the year to let him play and see what happens.

70charger
06-08-2012, 01:49 AM
OK, with last night's performance, I'm starting to ask if it's time to make an adjustment and send Dozier back down for more seasoning. He started off hot, but both his bat and (especially) his fielding have tailed off the past couple of weeks. He's been up here for about a month now, and has 8 errors. He's made some spectacular plays, too, but that doesn't cover not making the ones that should be made.

I know there is an argument to be made that he should be given a chance to work this out up here in the bigs. Give him more time to adjust to major league pitching and learning how to field. Given we are not contenders this season, maybe that's OK; losing a few extra games won't hurt that much (although I love to win regardless). I also don't know what the corresponding move would be, who'd you would bring up. Carroll can go back over to short, but it's not as if we have a bunch of middle infielders knocking on the door at Rochester. But now that our starting pitching is starting to turn around a little bit, don't we owe it to them to give them the best defense possible?

Thoughts?


I see both sides of this, but I find the latter more convincing. He's a rookie; he's streaky. It happens. Besides, the Twins' second option at SS isn't as good on two fronts: 1) the guy who replaces him probably wouldn't have any better defense or offense, and that's a short-term (i.e. this-year-only) deal, and 2) the guy who will eventually replace him probably needs the minor league seasoning more than he.

I'm fine with this scenario: keep Dozier on the big club now, and let him work out his difficulties. If he turns into an everyday guy, we win. If we replace him with, say, a Florimon later on, and he moves into the everyday second-baseman role, we win. I just don't really see the upside of having him return to AAA.

That said, Casilla must be feeling some heat under his seat right about now, eh?

Rosterman
06-08-2012, 01:59 AM
Right now, here is no one on the farm and all your candidates for any of the infield spots (Dozier, Casilla, Carroll, Plouffe, Burroughs, Valencia) all are taking lumps. It's who you want to put stock in. Can Valencia come back? Will Plouffe find a home at third? Carroll is Carroll and signed for another year and provides the vet leadership, although if he gets hot and someone wants him...go for it. Alexi is playing for a bigger contract. Twins will not feel he is worth it, but you can't trade nothing. oshi is still around collecting a paycheck in the minors...talk about the Bill Smith albatross! Dozier is either the real thing or a stop gap. Others would need to be added to the 40-man. I can wait to see what the Twins team looks like come August!

StormJH1
06-08-2012, 09:58 AM
Casilla is fine defensively. But he is not going to be on the 2013 Twins.
Right on both counts. I like him as a utility player just fine. He hits well enough to perform THAT role. But it's clear the organization (okay, Gardy mostly) just doesn't like the guy. It's funny how that perception works. Because he's a Latin player, there seems to be this belief that he's either becoming a star, or he's worthless to us. But players like Tolbert, Punto, etc. are accepted for their shortcomings, and are celebrated as guys who battle their tail off to stay in the league. I can't think of a single instance of Casilla dogging it out there or showing like he doesn't care. This just is what he is.

On Dozier - We should definitely keep him up. I know he only got 28 games in at Triple-A, but this guy hit at an .800+ OPS all over the minors. He's 25 now, and his MLB hitting after 120 plate appearance hasn't been great, but let's play this out some more. Again, as we say for virtually EVERY position on the Twins, it's not like they Mike Trout or Bryce Harper ready to take his place.

USAFChief
06-08-2012, 06:25 PM
I'm having a hard time trying to understand what benefit would currently come from sending Dozier back to AAA.

Let the kid play.

Sort of off topic, sort of on, in response to posts above: IMO there is no way Alexi Casilla is an everyday major league SS. It's been tried before, as recently as last year.

J-Dog Dungan
06-08-2012, 06:50 PM
With the hype being given to Bruno's ability to see problems in swings, it wouldn't hurt to send him down to get a little more seasoning, after all, his success at the plate is only recently developed.

IdahoPilgrim
06-08-2012, 10:12 PM
I'm having a hard time trying to understand what benefit would currently come from sending Dozier back to AAA.

Let the kid play.



The benefit would be that perhaps he was promoted too quickly. I was listening to an interview on 1500am the other day with Roy Smalley, and he likes the idea of letting players move up 1 level at a time. Prove to yourself (and everyone else) that you belong in high-A, then in AA, then in AAA. Then, when you're cruising in AAA, there should be no doubts to anyone (including yourself) that you belong in the show. I thought that idea had merit; hence my musings. I don't think that needs to always be adhered to rigorously; there will always be exceptions that demand to be made. That said, though, Dozier spent very little time in AAA, and his numbers (both batting and fielding) were OK but not great; perhaps he was promoted too quickly, because of lack of depth in the MLB roster.

That said, now that he's here, I'm leaning to keeping him up myself, for the reasons many here have mentioned. I just thought it was a legitimate question for discussion.

James Richter
06-09-2012, 01:05 AM
Possible benefits to sending Dozier down: stepping off the train for a few weeks could give him a chance to catch up mentally, which might help him at the plate and in the field; might ensure that he's not a Super-2 after 2014. To replace him, they could put Florimon on the bench and have Casilla play every day for a few weeks, or they could give Burroughs another shot starting only against RHPs (.881 OPS at AAA). Plouffe has pretty extreme platoon splits right now - I'd love to see him even it out, but it looks more likely that he needs to be a guy who only starts vs. LHPs. If splitting time with Burroughs works, I'm not worried about 3B for the next couple years. Having said that, I don't think there's any urgency to make a move with the IF for the next little while.

By the way, in fairness to Nishioka, check out his monthly splits (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t534&t=p_pbp&pid=457292). Nothing wonderful yet (and small sample sizes all), but they're definitely trending in the right direction, as though he might be acclimating to the level. He's going to get paid $3M next season no matter where he plays, so it'd be nice for him to get to the point where the Twins could make him the bench MI and spot him in the #9 hole once or twice a week.

twinstalker
06-09-2012, 04:01 AM
I think Dozier has done a pretty good job of not being overwhelmed at the plate. He should be overwhelmed. He's shot through the system and basically skipped AAA. Parmelee needed to go back. Dozier's here to stay, and I'll wager confidently that his stats improve this year.