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View Full Version : Article: Looking Back at the 2002 Twins Draft



Seth Stohs
06-07-2012, 06:38 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?633-Looking-Back-at-the-2002-Twins-Draft

twinswon1991
06-07-2012, 07:04 AM
By far the Twins best draft since Mauer which isnt saying much. The Twins drafts have been terrible the last 10 years with international signings keeping them from being dead last in org rankings.


As Sickles pointed out in his chat the Twins didnt plan to spend close to their draft cap this year which makes me sick. If you`re not going to spend money for the best prospects how are you going to improve?

Han Joelo
06-07-2012, 07:09 AM
Somewhat of a mirror image to this years draft--a toolsy outfielder and a hard-throwing pitcher with the top two picks. Hopefully both have a bit more upside than their predecessors, not that Span and Crain disappointed.

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 07:49 AM
If sickels is right, it is sickening. They cut the payroll, will not sign big time free agents, and now they are potentially not taking advantage of their draft position. Ugh.

As for the draft profiled, I would call that a success, in the B grade range.

jharaldson
06-07-2012, 08:49 AM
I am not sure of the best way to judge a draft but we got a combined 18.6 WAR from this draft.

jharaldson
06-07-2012, 09:02 AM
For comparison I looked at the first 15 rounds of the White Sox draft that year and they got a combine .7 WAR out of it so we look to have done reasonably well. Anybody know a quicker way of getting this type of data that isn't copying names from a draft list and looking them up in fan graphs one by one? It would be interesting to compare to the rest of the league.

Seth Stohs
06-07-2012, 09:58 AM
If anyone knows a place for that, that would be very informative!!

birdwatcher
06-07-2012, 10:07 AM
jharaldson, you on the right track in actually comparing the draft record against the other teams. Sure beats the ignorant statements in a vacuum about how the Twins drafts have been terrible in the past ten years. Wouldn't you agree, twinswon1991?

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 10:34 AM
Another way to look at the draft, is across years, and see who has come up to the majors each year. Like, one year, pretty much Valencia was it. How's that working out? Last year it was pretty much Revere and some guys that weren't ready. How'd that go? And this year, Revere and Dozier are pretty much it so far (with Hendriks and Parmalee adding negative WAR so far, but likely back up at some point). It's not so much when players were drafted, but if the minors are kicking out guys that help the team win. Also, I'd guess that if you looked at a different year, your results would be different. Should we look at the White Sox draft the year Chris Sale was drafted, and see how many WAR each team has?

I'm not worried about individual classes, but what comes up to the majors year after year, no matter what year they were drafted.

adjacent
06-07-2012, 10:35 AM
Very interesting article. What this shows to me is how incredibly selective MLB baseball is. Each year around 1500 players are drafted (granted, not all of them sign). Plus international signings, which every year are more significant. That is roughly 15000 players are signed one way or another to play professional baseball. And at a given time only 750 are in major league rosters. It makes me more appreciative of the guys who make it even if only for a stint.

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 10:41 AM
adjacent, great point. great, great point. It just shows the fine line between AA/AAA/and MLB. These guys are so far above "mortals" when it comes to baseball skill, but the difference between AA and MLB is still massive.

gunnarthor
06-07-2012, 10:49 AM
By far the Twins best draft since Mauer which isnt saying much.

Isn't saying much? We're supposed to get a Mauer out of every draft?

righty8383
06-07-2012, 12:42 PM
I think last year's draft will prove to be a success. Didn't care for Michael but the next 5 picks (Harrison, Boyd, Boer, Williams, Summers) all have some promise along with a few others. This year's draft I'm not as confident outside of Buxton. Berrios has some potential as do a few others.

Seth Stohs
06-07-2012, 12:50 PM
Very interesting article. What this shows to me is how incredibly selective MLB baseball is. Each year around 1500 players are drafted (granted, not all of them sign). Plus international signings, which every year are more significant. That is roughly 15000 players are signed one way or another to play professional baseball. And at a given time only 750 are in major league rosters. It makes me more appreciative of the guys who make it even if only for a stint.

Absolutely this... hopefully it helps people realize how good a baseball player is who "just" gets to AAA or AA.

greengoblinrulz
06-07-2012, 01:18 PM
myself, a draft where you dont sign your 3/5/8 picks & your #4 doesnt go above GCL is a bust. Why waste the picks if you arent gonna sign them??
If MN isnt spending the total allowed, it makes sense why they reached on so many FAR below their daft averages. Total BS if its true.

pbrezeasap
06-07-2012, 01:40 PM
Baseball Reference has draft data by team/year that shows WAR per player and total WAR at the bottom. You still have to do some sifting because it adds up the WAR from players that didn't sign and ended up getting drafted by other teams. It says that Michael Clete Thomas was who was drafted in the 5th round by the Twins, is that correct?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=MIN&year_ID=2002&draft_type=junreg&

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-07-2012, 03:12 PM
We got 1 really good pick in this draft. That's generally a great draft overall.

twinswon1991
06-07-2012, 03:16 PM
Isn't saying much? We're supposed to get a Mauer out of every draft?

9 years of drafts with no solid sp`s to show for it and other than Span no above replacement level position players or prospects.......yeah I think most of us would be fired if we had a track record like that.

CDog
06-07-2012, 03:55 PM
What this shows to me is how incredibly selective MLB baseball is...It makes me more appreciative of the guys who make it even if only for a stint.

Not to hijack, but also wanted to comment how much I agree with this. I'm sure many know somebody who got a whiff (or more) somewhere along the line. The one this makes me think of is a guy I knew in high school who was filthy good. Hit EVERYTHING, played catcher with a rocket arm, incredible natural athlete, etc. He got drafted somewhere in the 25-30th round range, I think, and played two years with the GCL Twins and Elizabethton...and that was it. Thinking that there are guys far better--just to get to A-ball, let alone AA and beyond--just boggles the mind. Just another reason baseball is fun.

glunn
06-07-2012, 11:59 PM
Another great article by Seth.

I agree with those who will be pissed if the Twins spend materially less than the cap this year.

Seth Stohs
06-08-2012, 12:16 AM
I agree with those who will be pissed if the Twins spend materially less than the cap this year.

I don't get this... Why? Who cares? The players have been drafted now. Why shouldn't they try to get them for as little as possible? Especially when this one year, if any of the money is not spent, some can carry forward to next year.

The Astros got the guy generally believed to be the best hitter in the draft and signed him for like $2.2M below slot. THey should be applauded.

ashburyjohn
06-08-2012, 06:21 PM
I agree with those who will be pissed if the Twins spend materially less than the cap this year.

Since this is the first year under the new system, I'll wait to see how their spending stacks up compared to other teams, and not just in absolute terms. But I'm pretty sure they need to be in the upper echelon, as a percent of their cap, given their needs.

Here's what worries me. They drafted a slew of pitchers, and rightly so. Past the first two or three rounds at best, any individual draftee is a long shot to ever make an impact in the major leagues. I imagine the guys from round 5-15 (say) are labeled by the front office as grade-B prospects, and all from 16-40 are labeled fringe. Can these pitchers ever shake their label based on actual performance? Judging by the Twins' treatment of (as the most recent examples) Slama and DeVries, with public comments that their stuff won't let them translate AAA success to the majors, I am doubtful. In that case, investing a lot of money to sign any but the top draft picks is ultimately a waste, of money, attention, and time.

Rosterman
06-09-2012, 11:40 AM
It is fun to go to baseballreference and just follow the different draft years, yet alone the minor league rosters of a team, and how few players advance on the course to the majors. The Twins seems to be in the 7-10 range for guys that make the major (not the Twins). But interesting to look at, like, the A rosters of the Snappers and how few make it thru to the show.

minn55441
06-09-2012, 12:04 PM
Can these pitchers ever shake their label based on actual performance? Judging by the Twins' treatment of (as the most recent examples) Slama and DeVries, with public comments that their stuff won't let them translate AAA success to the majors, I am doubtful. In that case, investing a lot of money to sign any but the top draft picks is ultimately a waste, of money, attention, and time.


I couldn't disagree more.

Baseball is a game of numbers, the more you sign the more likely you will get someone special. Even the first rounders are a 50/50 chance of making it to the majors, the odds decrease as you move down the rounds, but there will be major leaguers taken this year in rounds 10 and below. The good organizations are the ones that are able to not only draft them, but also sign them, give the a chance to progress and coach them along the way.

The quickest route to a failed organization is to stop sending money to sign talent. The second quickest route is to only sign your first 10 picks, thinking the other guys don't have a chance.

I don't have the number in front of me, but how many on our current 40 man roster were drafted after the 10th round or not drafted at all?