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John Bonnes
06-06-2012, 09:05 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?631-Nationals-Should-Not-Be-Lone-Suitor-For-Denard-Span

Bark's Lounge
06-06-2012, 09:20 PM
I don't see a fit with these three teams. We definitely are not going to get Zach Lee, Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, Billy Hamilton, or Mesoraco in a deal for Span - I'm not too excited about the other prospects that were named and as far as the Dodgers, Orioles, and Red's are concerned... I have a hard time envisioning them being desperate to make this kind of trade this season.

twinswon1991
06-06-2012, 10:02 PM
Span will not bring any of those prospects in return. You are looking at 2 upside type pitchers who are in A ball and in the 5-15 range on their team's prospect lists.

I think the best fit for both Willingham and Span is the Indians. They are starting to look like contenders and have some brutal options in the OF/DH spots. Not a big deal to trade in the division if you are in a multi year rebuild like the Twins are.

Seth Stohs
06-06-2012, 10:09 PM
Yeah, I don't see much mix with this teams. I'll stand by my thoughts that th Twins and Rangers are great trade partners for Span, Morneau and Willingham. There's no way they're getting a 5-star type of prospect for Span. Maybe I'm dreaming too in hoping they might be able to get a 4 star and maybe two 3 stars.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 10:16 PM
I actually think the Dodgers will be sniffing around Morneau. They are in need of a replacement for James Loney who will likely be non-tendered after the season seeing as he is 4th year arbitration eligible and is possibly the worst offensive 1B that continues to get the opening day starting gig.

Thrylos
06-06-2012, 10:23 PM
Been saying this for a while: I think that my local team (the Phillies) is the best Twins' partner for such a trade because it has a lot of good young stuck pitching and a serious OF need. Might take a couple more pieces to make it work, but...

and I am dead serious about the Phillies being it. And they will overspend for someone like Span (just ask the 'voice of reason' ;) )

Bark's Lounge
06-06-2012, 10:37 PM
Been saying this for a while: I think that my local team (the Phillies) is the best Twins' partner for such a trade because it has a lot of good young stuck pitching and a serious OF need. Might take a couple more pieces to make it work, but...

and I am dead serious about the Phillies being it. And they will overspend for someone like Span (just ask the 'voice of reason' ;) )

Just for fun - throw out a trade scenario involving The Twins and Phillies involving Span - Curious minds want to know!

drivlikejehu
06-06-2012, 10:41 PM
Considering the fact Span's signed through 2014 (plus a '15 option), I don't see any point in trading him for a mediocre return. They could always do that later. If no one wants to pay a high price, then he can just remain with the Twins. The organization won't be rebuilt with a few C+ prospects here and there.

Bark's Lounge
06-06-2012, 10:58 PM
Maybe I'm dreaming too in hoping they might be able to get a 4 star and maybe two 3 stars.

If this is only a dream - then you straight up do not trade Span... over and done.

jorgenswest
06-06-2012, 11:05 PM
Looking back at in season CF trades over last few years. Atlanta has made two trades trying to find a CF. Last year they traded for Michael Bourn (Gold Glove and All Star 2010) and in 2009 they traded for Nate McLouth (an All Star and Gold Glove winner in 2008).

Ranked by WAR, Span finds himself ranked 13th of 18 qualifiers.

Michael Bourn brought Jordan Schafer, Juan Abreu, Paul Clemens and Brett Oberholtzer. The Braves did not give up any of their better pitching prospects.

Nate McLouth brought Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke. At the time of the trade, Hernandez had made an appearance in the Baseball America top 100 and #4 Atlanta prospect . Locke made some organizational top 10s.

It is hard to imagine that Span will bring worth more than Bourn and McLouth at the time of their trade. It isn't even reasonable that he is on par with these players at the time of the trade. In that case, the better course is to keep Span.

pjnelly
06-06-2012, 11:33 PM
Here is optimism at its finest: on June 6th, 2006 the MN Twins had 25 wins and 32 losses--they were 11.5 games out of 1st place. Lets talk trades in July, not in early June.

striker_86
06-06-2012, 11:36 PM
I think the rangers would make a great trade partner....as much as I love span, now is the time to dump him and get something back<br>

righty8383
06-06-2012, 11:37 PM
Jorgenswest, that was a great post but I will counter a couple things. While WAR is a great stat, it does not tell the whole story. Span is one of the best in the game at making pitchers work. He often does what a leadoff hitter should do and works the count early in the game. You also have to consider the contract, which is very team friendly. This of course plays a very big factor in his overall trade value. Those two things (mainly the contract status) make me believe the Twins should be able to get more than Bourn and McLouth. If not, then yeah, we gotta keep him.

Highabove
06-06-2012, 11:54 PM
There is no reason to trade Span in till someone is willing to overpay.
Whats the rush?

glunn
06-07-2012, 12:16 AM
I just hope that this is not going to be a repeat of last year, where the Twins were contending enough that they made no big trades, then got flushed down the toilet after the trade deadline. If the Twins are less than 7 games out at the trade deadline, it seems likely that they might be buyers, not sellers, in order to keep the attendance figures higher and in the hope that they can make the playoffs. And if Mauer/Morneau/Span/Willingham could all have career seasons, and Ploufee and some others could play to their potential (and the starting pitchers could pitch like they have during the past 8 games), the Twins could be in first place in the division by the trade deadline.

Land Of 10,000 Beasts
06-07-2012, 12:17 AM
I like Span but we have plenty of young outfielders ready to get their feet wet so I wouldn't complain if we traded him to any of these teams. I don't really care who we trade him to, as long as it isn't within the division and not to the Yankees, not that they would want him.

John Bonnes
06-07-2012, 07:17 AM
In retrospect, I wish I had left the top prospects off of each team, since they clearly distracted from the story. Listing them was not to suggest I think Span could be traded for them. It was simply a reference to get thoughts going.

Thryloss, I almost listed Philly. I didn't because Juan Pierre hasn't turned into a pumpkin yet. It seemed premature.

I'm puzzled by the Texas stuff. I wonder if it's driven more by what WE want than what THEY want. Ian Kinsler is their leadoff hitter. Hamilton is their center fielder. The other corner OFs are Cruz and Murphy. And their top priority is a right-handed hitting outfielder. I don't see Span as a great fit for them.

roger
06-07-2012, 07:17 AM
John, I expect that Mr. Ryan views the Twins much different than most of us. He is looking at putting the Twins back into contention next year. I expect that he sees a team that is really pretty good throughout its everyday lineup, assuming they stay healthy. The bullpen fixes he did have worked very well and there are four/five arms in Rochester about major league ready. The problem, the starting rotation including the health of Pavano/Baker. I think he sees a team that needs to add two solid starters and they can be back.

If he is thinking like that, he isn't going to be trading away any of his better players just to be doing something. Yes, he will listen to phone calls and if someone blows him away for Span or another player...he certainly will listen. But I suspect we are going to see a lot less moves between now and July 31 than most people expect.

Blackjack
06-07-2012, 07:36 AM
John, I expect that Mr. Ryan views the Twins much different than most of us. He is looking at putting the Twins back into contention next year. I expect that he sees a team that is really pretty good throughout its everyday lineup, assuming they stay healthy. The bullpen fixes he did have worked very well and there are four/five arms in Rochester about major league ready. The problem, the starting rotation including the health of Pavano/Baker. I think he sees a team that needs to add two solid starters and they can be back.

I think you hit it on the head right there. Unless the Twins really tank between now and the trade deadline, Terry R. is not going to hold a fire sale.

Personally I wouldn't trade Span unless they get a stud prospect in return.

clutterheart
06-07-2012, 08:07 AM
This is why I am glad Ryan is the GM. He won't get focused on one team / scenario and he has the balls to walk away from a deal if its not good.

Loosey
06-07-2012, 08:37 AM
I agree with whoever mentioned that we shouldn't just trade Span to trade him. He is under contract for a few more years and is a pretty good leadoff hitter and center fielder. If you can't receive some top prospects for him in return then why bother making a trade. The reason for trading established players is to build for the future, and you aren't going to improve in the future if you trade away the better players you have now for fringe prospects unless you have a younger player in your system who is ready to take the place of the guy you are trading. And I don't believe the Twins have that guy in place yet, Revere isn't ready and doesn't have the arm for CF and Hicks is still toiling in AA. Stand pat on Span unless they are blown away.

John Bonnes
06-07-2012, 08:44 AM
The bullpen fixes he did have worked very well and there are four/five arms in Rochester about major league ready. The problem, the starting rotation including the health of Pavano/Baker. I think he sees a team that needs to add two solid starters and they can be back.

Roger, I agree that Ryan is probably not in a hurry to give any of these guys away, least of all Span. He shouldn't be; the purpose of this story is to suggest there should be plenty of demand for him. (My god but the Reds could use Span badly.) And I've debated whether breaking up the top/middle of the lineup is a good idea, because rebuilding that is harder than people think.

But Ryan cannot be thinking this team is a starting arm or two away from contention. Pavano and Baker are free agents and neither is certain, or even particularly likely, to be healthy enough to be effective next year. Blackie has been bad. Liriano will be gone. They're already scraping the bottom of the bucket with Cole DeVries and receiving way more than they can count on from Scott Diamond and PJ Walters. Gibson and Wimmers are huge question marks. They are actively resisting moving Swarzak and Duensing to the rotation, probably wisely.

There MIGHT be enough options there to piece together 800-900 innings, but not enough talent to contend, at least not next year. Ryan has to see that.

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 08:51 AM
I do not understand the posts stating they should not trade him just to trade him. No on is making that argument. I still think Arizona should be the trade partner target....they have three pitchers in the top 18 prospects in all of baseball.

twinswon1991
06-07-2012, 08:56 AM
I do not understand the posts stating they should not trade him just to trade him. No on is making that argument. I still think Arizona should be the trade partner target....they have three pitchers in the top 18 prospects in all of baseball.

Sorry pal but Gerrardo Parra is Arizonas 4TH OF and is a far better offensive and defensive player than Span. If a team really needs a good/cheap/young CF they will be after Parra not Span.

gunnarthor
06-07-2012, 09:25 AM
Span's a good trade chip but unless we get a Pence like deal for him, keep him. As others noted, there's no point in trading him for low level prospects. With the additional wild card, a lot more teams will be in playoff races, Span's deal is good enough that small market teams can afford him. Wait until the deadline and hopefully one team overpays. If no one is willing to make a good deal, keep Span.

jmlease1
06-07-2012, 09:36 AM
If there's a real bidding war for Span and we can get some high-upside prospects for him, then I guess you have to seriously consider it. but considering Span's value as A) a lead-off hitter and B) a good CF, and C) a guy who has proven to be a superior defensive player at LF, and D) has a good contract I don't want him dumped near the trade deadline. Span should only get moved for the right trade.

I agree with John, there should be multiple teams interested in dealing for Span for all of those factors. But I don't know if there are enough teams willing to give up serious prospects to make it a value move for the twins. I understand that the twins have some serious rotation issues and 1 arm isn't going to fix it...but the team should also have money to spend on more than one in free agency, and if guys like Diamond prove it over the course of the season, we're not quite as far back as one might think, especially since the offense seems to be solid.

The Twins are in an interesting and difficult position in their rebuild. They don't want to tear the whole thing down because they have some nice pieces, they just moved into a new stadium and don't want to crash the attendance, and they don't want to become KC/Pittsburgh rolling the dice on prospects for a decade. At the same time, they're not well-constructed to win in the short-term because the starting rotation has collapsed through age & injury & ineffectiveness.

roger
06-07-2012, 09:37 AM
But Ryan cannot be thinking this team is a starting arm or two away from contention.

There MIGHT be enough options there to piece together 800-900 innings, but not enough talent to contend, at least not next year. Ryan has to see that.

John, I believe they are two good starters away from competing. We are seeing that Scott Diamond will be an effective starter, one capable of filling one of the #3-#5 spots in the rotation. If you read my stuff every week, you know I believe that Liam Hendriks is going to be very good and should be back and pitching well later in the year. That is two, lets say #3 and #4. The fifth starter can come from a combination of Walters, DeVries, Blackburn, Gibson and Baker. I believe that at the end of the year (October) when he is beginning to throw, the Twins will work out something on Baker's contract and he will be back. Will he be ready on opening day, unlikely. Gibson could, but both should be ready during the season to fill in if one of the starting five fails or is injured.

That leaves two spots open. Yes, they are #1 and #2 which he will have to fill. As I look at the rest of the team, it is solid for next year. Fill those two spots and the Twins should be very good. Can they possibly do that by trading someone like Span for a young stud who will fill one of those two spots...maybe. In that case Mr. Ryan will have to evaluate what he has in the outfield and at the top of the order. Another option would be to package Liriano for a young starter in July...assuming the Frankie we saw the last two times out keeps showing up for another 7-8 starts!

cr9617
06-07-2012, 09:55 AM
John, I believe they are two good starters away from competing. We are seeing that Scott Diamond will be an effective starter, one capable of filling one of the #3-#5 spots in the rotation. If you read my stuff every week, you know I believe that Liam Hendriks is going to be very good and should be back and pitching well later in the year. That is two, lets say #3 and #4. The fifth starter can come from a combination of Walters, DeVries, Blackburn, Gibson and Baker. I believe that at the end of the year (October) when he is beginning to throw, the Twins will work out something on Baker's contract and he will be back. Will he be ready on opening day, unlikely. Gibson could, but both should be ready during the season to fill in if one of the starting five fails or is injured.

That leaves two spots open. Yes, they are #1 and #2 which he will have to fill. As I look at the rest of the team, it is solid for next year. Fill those two spots and the Twins should be very good. Can they possibly do that by trading someone like Span for a young stud who will fill one of those two spots...maybe. In that case Mr. Ryan will have to evaluate what he has in the outfield and at the top of the order. Another option would be to package Liriano for a young starter in July...assuming the Frankie we saw the last two times out keeps showing up for another 7-8 starts!

That is wishful thinking, at best. I sure hope the FO doesn't see it this way. That rotation you just named has a lot of IFs, and even IF all of those thing fall in place...it's still a below average rotation.

mike wants wins
06-07-2012, 10:09 AM
Sorry pal but Gerrardo Parra is Arizonas 4TH OF and is a far better offensive and defensive player than Span. If a team really needs a good/cheap/young CF they will be after Parra not Span.
I was not talking about Span per se.

Winston Smith
06-07-2012, 10:17 AM
We've been hearing for a week from Coomer how the Twins can get back in the race. But does anyone really think this is a playoff team. They had the worst record in the AL last year and for the first third of this year. Right now the Rangers have the best record at .579 and if the Twins were to play Ranger quality ball the rest of the way they'd finish with 83 wins. Let's hope Ryan is realistic, not dreaming and will work hard before the trade deadline to rebuild the talent level on this team.

nicksaviking
06-07-2012, 10:41 AM
There MIGHT be enough options there to piece together 800-900 innings, but not enough talent to contend, at least not next year. Ryan has to see that.

That's the problem, it IS enough to contend in most years in the AL Central and Ryan knows it. The division is weak year in and year out and Ryan knows he just needs a couple of servicable arms to compete for the Central title. Cleveland's rotation is pretty poor and of similar talent caliber to the Twins. Unfortunately, the Indians somehow got enough effort out of their crappy starters to stay in games while the Twins pitchers, with a similar historically mediocre track record got destroyed and pulled before they got out of the 4th inning. It easily could have gone the other way in which case the Twins would have been around .500 and the Indians in the cellar. Before the season started, no one would have said the Indians rotaion of Lowe, Jimenez, Gomez, Tomlin and Masterson was significantly better than Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn, Marquis and Diamond/Hendricks/Walters. They are even composed of the same mixtures of Vets, high upside/high bust, and arbitration eligible pitch to contact guys.

But being able to contend next year is a problem. We know all too well this approach only gets you to the playoffs but does not help to advance in them. If Ryan indeed thinks the Twins can contend again next year, it means he thinks he can patch together another 1st round exit caliber playoff team with "servicable" innings eaters. It would take a mulity year overhaul if he has set his sights higher. So personally, I hope they make some drastic changes. Signing an over-acheiving, end of the line vet like Derek Lowe sure as hell isn't going to get the Indians anywhere if they make the playoffs. The Twins need to think bigger and put together a staff the right way next time they plan on competing.

gunnarthor
06-07-2012, 10:44 AM
Sorry pal but Gerrardo Parra is Arizonas 4TH OF and is a far better offensive and defensive player than Span. If a team really needs a good/cheap/young CF they will be after Parra not Span.

Um, well Parra is younger but that's about it. Career OPS+ 104 v 94, career WAR 13.2 v 4.5. More of the same this year. Not sure why you'd even think that unless you're just blinded by some anti-Twin rage.

Blackjack
06-07-2012, 11:39 AM
But being able to contend next year is a problem. We know all too well this approach only gets you to the playoffs but does not help to advance in them. If Ryan indeed thinks the Twins can contend again next year, it means he thinks he can patch together another 1st round exit caliber playoff team with "servicable" innings eaters.

If I had to pick, I'd rather have a contending team that has a chance to to win every night, plays .500 ball, and makes the playoffs vs the horrible team that we watched the first month and half of the season. Thats what you're going to have for years if you trade every decent player you have for unproven prospects.

cr9617
06-07-2012, 12:16 PM
If I had to pick, I'd rather have a contending team that has a chance to to win every night, plays .500 ball, and makes the playoffs vs the horrible team that we watched the first month and half of the season. Thats what you're going to have for years if you trade every decent player you have for unproven prospects.

So, if the upside for a team is to hover around the .500 mark, in a bad division, with an outside chance to make the playoffs...you think this should be the goal? Striving for mediocrity should never be the goal.

shs_59
06-07-2012, 12:27 PM
John, great thread I LOVE you're mention of Zach Cozart, though i'm not sure the Reds would be willing to part with him.

In general though, i think Denard Span should not be traded at all. He and Mauer are my 2 guys to build around, along with Dozier, Gibson, Diamond, Burton, Duensing, Perk, and hopefully Revere, Plouffe.

but of all those names Span and Mauer have to be at the top 1.B and 1 . A ......right?

If we're going to trade him we have to get a HUGE haul something like the Nats already gave up to get Gio Gonzalez.
(not quite that massive but close)

ltwedt
06-07-2012, 02:25 PM
No one will bite on Span because he continues to show that he has no idea what he should do on the base paths once he gets on.

Shane Wahl
06-07-2012, 05:02 PM
John, I believe they are two good starters away from competing. We are seeing that Scott Diamond will be an effective starter, one capable of filling one of the #3-#5 spots in the rotation. If you read my stuff every week, you know I believe that Liam Hendriks is going to be very good and should be back and pitching well later in the year. That is two, lets say #3 and #4. The fifth starter can come from a combination of Walters, DeVries, Blackburn, Gibson and Baker. I believe that at the end of the year (October) when he is beginning to throw, the Twins will work out something on Baker's contract and he will be back. Will he be ready on opening day, unlikely. Gibson could, but both should be ready during the season to fill in if one of the starting five fails or is injured.

That leaves two spots open. Yes, they are #1 and #2 which he will have to fill. As I look at the rest of the team, it is solid for next year. Fill those two spots and the Twins should be very good. Can they possibly do that by trading someone like Span for a young stud who will fill one of those two spots...maybe. In that case Mr. Ryan will have to evaluate what he has in the outfield and at the top of the order. Another option would be to package Liriano for a young starter in July...assuming the Frankie we saw the last two times out keeps showing up for another 7-8 starts!

Giving you credit for a very good post here, as I generally agree. Even ONE top or near top of the line starter would go a long way next year, as long as people are healthy. Ideally they sign one such pitcher and trade (not Span, but a package) for one B+ or better SP prospect who is no lower than AA this year.

Dilligaf69
06-07-2012, 05:23 PM
I agree with whoever mentioned that we shouldn't just trade Span to trade him. He is under contract for a few more years and is a pretty good leadoff hitter and center fielder. If you can't receive some top prospects for him in return then why bother making a trade. The reason for trading established players is to build for the future, and you aren't going to improve in the future if you trade away the better players you have now for fringe prospects unless you have a younger player in your system who is ready to take the place of the guy you are trading. And I don't believe the Twins have that guy in place yet, Revere isn't ready and doesn't have the arm for CF and Hicks is still toiling in AA. Stand pat on Span unless they are blown away.



Keep him unless your getting something more then a fringe prospect...we have enough of them. Revere has been much a much better hitter this yr and IF Span is traded he will be the CF bad arm or not and the leadoff hitter but you don't GIVE Span away!

sotafan
06-08-2012, 01:47 PM
Ok, there are a lot of different things people are throwing out there in regards to contending or rebuilding. There are pieces the Twins need to hang on to and there are piece that need the boot in the worst way. The 3-4 players that should be actively shopped at the deadline are the players that will not be here next year, Pavano, Capps, Doumit and Liriano. Just trade them for whatever you can get!!! We can save the money from their contracts the rest of 2012. As for trading Span, Morneau, and Willingham, C’mon MAN!!! They are the heart of this team and the main reason we are returning to respectable baseball. If you can get a haul for them then by all means, thanks for playing.

The main question that really needs to be analyzed and discussed is “what are the options for 2013 via free agency?” There are people saying we are one good arm away, or two away from contention. Well we are at least two away IMO but check it. In 2013, the payroll that is committed is roughly 65-70 mil. Now, if Ryan has a similar budget as this year, there is about 30mil to spend in FA. How can that money be used? TWO Starting pitchers!!!! Here is who is available in the 2013 free agency class.
Cole Hamels
Zach Greinke
Anibal Sanchez
Shaun Marcum
Erik Bedard
Edwin Jackson
Colby Lewis
Carlos Zambrano

The top 3 will be getting nice 5-7 year deals and they should because they are #1 pitchers. So pick one of the three—I like Greinke and he doesn’t like large market teams so we could make a run at him. I also like Sanchez for the #2 starter. Greinke will likely be in the 16-20mil range for 5 years. Sanchez would be in the 8-12 mil range for maybe 3 years. Hamels is a pipe dream, he will be way to expensive. The other five all can be that #2 starter and will likely be the in 5-12mil on 3 years deals.

Let’s play this out.
Greinke for 6 years at 18.5mil per
Sanchez for 4 years at 11.5mil per
Total is 30mil
With those two starters at the top of the rotation, and Diamond/Walters/Blackburn/Hendirks/Gibson fighting for the other three spots, would you consider the Twins a playoff contender and a good chance at getting pass the first round?? You would have to keep Willingham, Span and Morneau.

Will the FO be that bold and spend some money is the other question.

TopGunn#22
06-10-2012, 06:46 PM
Sotafan hits the nail on the head! No matter what we do trade-wise this year at the deadline or in the off season, we need to pony up the CASH to sign TWO starters for the rotation. The pitchers he lists are the caliber we need to go after. Hamels is a pipe-dream. He'll either stay with Philly or sign with the Dodgers. Zambrano is a head case. Colby Lewis has shown he can pitch in the A.L. Sanchez, E. Jax and Marcum would all make a decent #2. Greinke is the target for #1. I could even see keeping Liriano around for the #5 spot if we can't get a decent prospect for him. Baker and Pavano gone. Trade "Blackie" to an N.L. team where he has at least a 10% chance of survival. He can't pitch in the A.L.