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Seth Stohs
06-06-2012, 09:21 AM
Today is the final day of the 2012 MLB Draft. Teams will make their choices in Rounds 16 through 40 today. This is where the really good scouts show their stuff. The Twins have had a lot of success stories in the late rounds. Can they find another one today?

J-Dog Dungan
06-06-2012, 09:37 AM
I think this is where the Twins truly show why they were considered for the team to be featured in Moneyball, because they have done so well drafting in the later rounds, and have proven that there is a point to having these late rounds.

Shane Wahl
06-06-2012, 09:48 AM
How on earth were the Twins considered to featured in Moneyball? This organization is notorious for ignoring statistics in favor of "seeing-eye" scouting.

gunnarthor
06-06-2012, 09:57 AM
How on earth were the Twins considered to featured in Moneyball? This organization is notorious for ignoring statistics in favor of "seeing-eye" scouting.

The author of Moneyball was going to write a story about how small market teams were competing. He narrowed it down to A's and Twins, Twins and Ryan were actually his first choice. I don't remember what happened to change that - A's offered more access? - but he decided to write about the A's instead. Rest is history.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 10:26 AM
The Twins did not want to be part of the book from what I've heard. Obviously the Twins version would not have been called "Moneyball" probably something like "Smallball." But the big question is, would Brad Pitt really have been able to play Terry Ryan? He would have had to go pre-teen Benjamin Button to pull that one off.

Shane Wahl
06-06-2012, 10:36 AM
I did not actually know that. I did not read the book, obviously. I had just assumed that it was orignally setup to be a book about the exact way the A's maximized on their payroll issues, by relying on statistics (OBP, mainly) instead of "the sound of the bat" kind of scouting. Interesting.

They would have had to cast Ed Harris as Terry Ryan.

glanzer
06-06-2012, 10:52 AM
Jonah Hill likely would have stayed on to play Bill Smith.

mike wants wins
06-06-2012, 10:55 AM
This could be interesting, or not. Given that all these guys can sign for is $100K, I'm guessing a lot of HS kids and their parents will be deciding between $50K-$100K, and going to college. I'd probably choose college, much more likely path to a future. OTOH, there is plenty of time for that, and why not roll the dice on a 2-3 years of playing baseball for a living (and then going to college later, if you need to).

James
06-06-2012, 11:09 AM
This could be interesting, or not. Given that all these guys can sign for is $100K, I'm guessing a lot of HS kids and their parents will be deciding between $50K-$100K, and going to college. I'd probably choose college, much more likely path to a future. OTOH, there is plenty of time for that, and why not roll the dice on a 2-3 years of playing baseball for a living (and then going to college later, if you need to).
Well, if you're playing college ball, the college is likely free or cheaper if you have a scholarship, depending on the school you go to, and there is potential for you to get drafted higher in a few years.

James
06-06-2012, 11:20 AM
Uh oh. The Twins just drafted another Hicks. Dalton Hicks, 1B a junior from Central Florida. Let the confusion begin!

mike wants wins
06-06-2012, 11:30 AM
Well, if you're playing college ball, the college is likely free or cheaper if you have a scholarship, depending on the school you go to, and there is potential for you to get drafted higher in a few years.

Good point, I'd choose college on a scholarship over minor league baseball any day.....but then, I'm not potential professional athlete either.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 11:38 AM
There are plenty of these kids that have no intention of going to college though. Some know they wouldn't make the grades, others just want to play baseball no matter what the pay. There will be many players who have told scouts they are planning to go to college to try to leverage a better draft position and slot but were never seriously considering school.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 11:57 AM
I did a google search for Dalton Hicks. He was on the MaxPreps 2008 all-american team. Not too significant but also on the list was Danny Hultzen, Garrett Cole, Kyle Skipworth, Eric Hosmer, Tim Beckham, Casey Kelly, Matt Hogood and the Twins very own BJ Hermson and Aaron Hicks. Some pretty impressive company, so if he's still any good he'll probably be going back for his SR year.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 12:00 PM
I see the Orioles just drafted a 1B from a Maryland HS named Ryan Ripken. Might be some nepotism going on here!

James
06-06-2012, 12:22 PM
I see the Orioles just drafted a 1B from a Maryland HS named Ryan Ripken. Might be some nepotism going on here!
No! That sort of thing doesn't happen in the MLB draft!!!!!!!

old nurse
06-06-2012, 12:30 PM
Good point, I'd choose college on a scholarship over minor league baseball any day.....but then, I'm not potential professional athlete either.

There is the MLB tuition program that they can negotiate in their first contract. Given that schools only have on average 12 scholarships to divide between the players it might be more profitable to negotiate with a team for the max bonus with max scholarship money. One would hope that the teams would be smart enough to have people motivated and organized. I know, there is plenty of evidence to the contrary.

J-Dog Dungan
06-06-2012, 12:31 PM
How on earth were the Twins considered to featured in Moneyball? This organization is notorious for ignoring statistics in favor of "seeing-eye" scouting.

Back when the events in Moneyball took place, the Twins won a lot of games with one of the smallest payrolls in the game. That was also the year of the Twins becoming relevant to the AL Central again.

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 12:38 PM
Round 21 TTech Catcher Bo Altobelli
Round 22 Oregon HS catcher Joshua Graham
Round 23 U/Nebraska P Travis Huber

alarp33
06-06-2012, 12:42 PM
Moneyball followed the 2002 Oakland A's, so it was obviously determined before hand which team to follow. In the 3 years leading up to the book, the A's won; 87, 91 and 102 games. The Twins won; 63, 69 and 85.

ashburyjohn
06-06-2012, 12:45 PM
Yankees just drafted Vincent Jackson. Hope for their sake they don't think they're getting Bo.

James
06-06-2012, 12:48 PM
Moneyball followed the 2002 Oakland A's, so it was obviously determined before hand which team to follow. In the 3 years leading up to the book, the A's won; 87, 91 and 102 games. The Twins won; 63, 69 and 85.
True. But he was looking at the money spent per win. He originally wan't going to follow a team, he was just going to write about the economics of baseball (the author is not a baseball guy, his other books tend to deal with wall street). The Twins actually are mentioned in the book as having the second lowest dollar amount per win (obviously not true any more).

On an actual draft note, the Twins seem to be going very catcher heavy in rounds 21-24. 4 picks, 3 catchers.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 12:50 PM
Three of the last four picks for the Twins are catchers. Certainly these guys wont make it, but the slew of new arms are going to need someone to catch them.

ashburyjohn
06-06-2012, 01:05 PM
Twins are going more for position players today, overall.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 01:07 PM
The White Sox just picked a 6'7" pitcher named Storm Throne. He's a junior so hopefully he's going back to school, because that's way to cool of a name to go to the White Sox.

James
06-06-2012, 01:17 PM
The White Sox just picked a 6'7" pitcher named Storm Throne. He's a junior so hopefully he's going back to school, because that's way to cool of a name to go to the White Sox.
Agreed. Luckily, his signing bonus is probably under $100K at this point, which may have him decide to go back to school for another year.

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 01:22 PM
Round 26 Justin Jones LHP Cal

ashburyjohn
06-06-2012, 01:25 PM
Round 26 Justin Jones LHP Cal

He's no Storm Throne.

James
06-06-2012, 01:26 PM
Is it immature of me to chuckle when I see that the Pirates have just drafted a guy whose name is Jimmy Rider?

ashburyjohn
06-06-2012, 01:29 PM
Is it immature of me to chuckle when I see that the Pirates have just drafted a guy whose name is Jimmy Rider?

He should go by Storm.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 01:31 PM
This Justin Jones is a left handed pitcher, same as the Justin Jones the Twins got for Doug Mientkiewicz. Dougie should have been able to fetch a little more than that guy. Never got above AA ball.

James
06-06-2012, 01:34 PM
And Washington drafted a guy name Skye Bolt. The past few rounds have been awesome for names.

jokin
06-06-2012, 01:35 PM
He should go by Storm.

Must be incoming weather. The Nats just drafted CF Skye Bolt

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 01:45 PM
Round 27 LHP Jerad Grundy U Kentucky

jokin
06-06-2012, 01:56 PM
Round 27 LHP Jerad Grundy U Kentucky

This is a great pick. The Twins are channeling their inner Miami Marlins scouting service. Doubtful if they get him, but he has been to 3 colleges in the 3 years, so you never know.

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 01:59 PM
Round 28 Carson Goldsmith, NW State, LA

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:01 PM
Round 28 Carson Goldsmith, NW State, LA

Even their pitchers are converted catchers. Does he convert back to catcher?, can't have enough with all the new arms coming in.

James
06-06-2012, 02:03 PM
Round 28 Carson Goldsmith, NW State, LA
Funny. NW State roster has Goldsmith listed as a catcher, but the draft board has him going as a pitcher. I wonder how he feels about that.

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 02:08 PM
Round 29


Shades of Sweet Music


Sean Hagan 6'6" LHP St.Johns U NY

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:10 PM
Funny. NW State roster has Goldsmith listed as a catcher, but the draft board has him going as a pitcher. I wonder how he feels about that.

Because he pitched all year for Northwestern State? Probably feels all right about it, I would guess.

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:11 PM
Round 29


Shades of Sweet Music


Sean Hagan 6'6" LHP St.Johns U NY


Another good pick, improved every year at St John's. They had a good squad this year. I remember him shutting out the Gophers last season (two years in a row).

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 02:20 PM
The Twins must just be killing time. Either that or they know something about the signabilty of these guys. They've only drafted 1 college SR and 2 2nd year juco guys today. I wonder what this stratagy is all about. They can't possibly believe these guys are going to sign.

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:40 PM
Timothy Robinson HS LF. Alex Burnett's brother? His scouting video confirms that he looks like a future converted catcher.

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:43 PM
The Twins must just be killing time. Either that or they know something about the signabilty of these guys. They've only drafted 1 college SR and 2 2nd year juco guys today. I wonder what this stratagy is all about. They can't possibly believe these guys are going to sign.

I wasn't sure of your premise, but not it's confirmed: Andrew Ferriera LHP......Harvard?

James
06-06-2012, 02:44 PM
Do you think Round #32 pick, Andrew Ferreira is going to sign with Twins or finish out the two years he has remaining at Harvard?

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:47 PM
Do you think Round #32 pick, Andrew Ferreira is going to sign with Twins or finish out the two years he has remaining at Harvard?

Let's see.... a lifetime of being first in line at every job interview with a Harvard degree......or a resume that shows you traveled the world, seeing E-Town, Beloit, Fort Meyers, New Britain and Rochester.....?

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 02:49 PM
Do you think Round #32 pick, Andrew Ferreira is going to sign with Twins or finish out the two years he has remaining at Harvard?

Maybe the smarty pants already graduated.

Timothy Robinson, the HS guy the Twins just drafted was good enough to have a profile on the MLB site, sooooo safe bet he's not signing.

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:50 PM
Do you think Round #32 pick, Andrew Ferreira is going to sign with Twins or finish out the two years he has remaining at Harvard?

Upon further reflection, is there any chance they are "drafting for need" and are looking for a future replacement at the GM position?

James
06-06-2012, 02:50 PM
Let's see.... a lifetime of being first in line at every job interview with a Harvard degree......or a resume that shows you traveled the world, seeing E-Town, Beloit, Fort Meyers, New Britain and Rochester.....?
You make a convincing argument. Sign with the Twins it is.

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:51 PM
Maybe the smarty pants already graduated.

Timothy Robinson, the HS guy the Twins just drafted was good enough to have a profile on the MLB site, sooooo safe bet he's not signing.

Listed as a sophomore, but you're right, he could be on an accelerated academic program. Still, how often do Harvard players get drafted?

James
06-06-2012, 02:52 PM
Maybe the smarty pants already graduated.

Timothy Robinson, the HS guy the Twins just drafted was good enough to have a profile on the MLB site, sooooo safe bet he's not signing.
Already graduated from Harvard as a sophomore... smarty pants would indeed be the correct name for him then.

jokin
06-06-2012, 02:59 PM
Kaleb Merck, SR RHP from TCU. Kind of cool to say you were drafted #1000.

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 03:00 PM
Round 33

Kaleb Merck RHP TCU SENIOR

jokin
06-06-2012, 03:02 PM
Kaleb Merck, SR RHP from TCU. Kind of cool to say you were drafted #1000.


Uh oh. Sat out his true junior year with TJ surgery. I guess the Twins are glad he's gotten it out of the way.

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 03:06 PM
Round 34, Senior OF UC San Diego Brian Haar

jokin
06-06-2012, 03:13 PM
Round 34, Senior OF UC San Diego Brian Haar

The Twins are always looking for the next LNP, they found him in Haar, only Haar is 6'3".

PMKI
06-06-2012, 03:17 PM
So no chance Timmy Robinson signs?

jokin
06-06-2012, 03:21 PM
So no chance Timmy Robinson signs?

His video suggests he looks like a Bull in a china shop, big body boy, I think the Twins ask he try catcher. Does he buy the notion that that is his quick ticket through the minors? and What will Burnett recommend he do?

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 03:26 PM
Round 35 JR RHP Jared Wilson UC Santa Barbara

Jeremy Nygaard
06-06-2012, 03:33 PM
The White Sox just picked a 6'7" pitcher named Storm Throne. He's a junior so hopefully he's going back to school, because that's way to cool of a name to go to the White Sox.

Throne is a decent basketball player at D2 Morningside in Iowa, slim chance he signs.

Jeremy Nygaard
06-06-2012, 03:35 PM
Maybe the smarty pants already graduated.

Timothy Robinson, the HS guy the Twins just drafted was good enough to have a profile on the MLB site, sooooo safe bet he's not signing.


Robinson will be offered money if they Twins have any left at the deadline. The same way they signed Jason Kubel's brother-in-law Michael Tonkin.

From the looks of it, Robinson will be one of the few guys I hit on this year, but his future (most likely in college) will be in the corner OF.

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 03:35 PM
Round 36


OF Brandon Bayardi UNLV JR

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 03:45 PM
Round 37 Marvel James RHP California HS

Apparently has a committment to Duke

jokin
06-06-2012, 03:57 PM
Austin Rei, shocking that they would go for yet another catcher.

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 03:57 PM
Round 38


Austin Rei California HS catcher

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 04:00 PM
Any way the Twins can engineer some kind of high profile prostitue bust with some of these high upside high school kids to scare the colleges into pulling the scholarship offers?

jokin
06-06-2012, 04:00 PM
Robinson will be offered money if they Twins have any left at the deadline. The same way they signed Jason Kubel's brother-in-law Michael Tonkin.

From the looks of it, Robinson will be one of the few guys I hit on this year, but his future (most likely in college) will be in the corner OF.

Jeremy, sounds like you already know a little about Robinson, what little I know is from the video, what a big kid! Does he have some quality college offers?/ can the Twins counter by suggesting he can fast-track by converting to catcher?/Thrylos says he's Burnett's brother?

jokin
06-06-2012, 04:02 PM
Any way the Twins can engineer some kind of high profile prostitue bust with some of these high upside high school kids to scare the colleges into pulling the scholarship offers?

Amen and LOL...Now that's some creative, outside the box thinking the Twins need in their current time of desperation!

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 04:18 PM
Round 39


Alex Liquori Georgia HS outfielder

Mr. Ed
06-06-2012, 04:20 PM
Round 40


Brad Schreiber RHP Purdue JR

ashburyjohn
06-06-2012, 04:23 PM
Round 39 Alex Liquori Georgia HS outfielder

Wonder if he's any relation to Marty Liquori, the 60s-70s runner from when a 4 minute mile was a big deal.

nicksaviking
06-06-2012, 04:28 PM
Only 6 of the 25 guys picked today were SR or juco 2nd yr players. Shouldn't expect to see many of these guys in uniform this summer as none of these guys can be offered much of a bonus, unless there is some dynamic about the new draft rules we have yet to figure out.

Jeremy Nygaard
06-06-2012, 04:40 PM
Jeremy, sounds like you already know a little about Robinson, what little I know is from the video, what a big kid! Does he have some quality college offers?/ can the Twins counter by suggesting he can fast-track by converting to catcher?/Thrylos says he's Burnett's brother?

I think he's committed to USC. He doesn't have the arm of his brother, so I don't see him being converted to catcher... but yeah, Alex Burnett's brother and had the talent to go before Round 10. I would expect we hear his named called as a re-draft in 2015 (unless, of course, there is spendable money left in the bonus pool).

James
06-06-2012, 04:40 PM
Only 6 of the 25 guys picked today were SR or juco 2nd yr players. Shouldn't expect to see many of these guys in uniform this summer as none of these guys can be offered much of a bonus, unless there is some dynamic about the new draft rules we have yet to figure out.
After round 10, any bonus over $100k is added to the bonus pool. I can't imagine too many of the HS guys or JR guys will be lured away by that amount, but... you never know. If some of the other guys sign for much below slot level, you could maybe give a big enough bonus to one of the guys that you really like in the later rounds.

IdahoPilgrim
06-06-2012, 04:48 PM
After round 10, any bonus over $100k is added to the bonus pool. I can't imagine too many of the HS guys or JR guys will be lured away by that amount, but... you never know. If some of the other guys sign for much below slot level, you could maybe give a big enough bonus to one of the guys that you really like in the later rounds.

Are you sure? By what I read, the $100K per pick is not added to the pool and can't be accumulated. Any pick after round 10 can be given at most $100K, and any overage put you at risk of fines/losing picks. That makes sense; the purpose is to prevent teams not signing a lot of later round picks to artificially inflate the bonus pool for someone they want badly, thus skewing the purpose of the bonus pool in the first place.

I could be wrong though.

Thrylos
06-06-2012, 04:52 PM
I think he's committed to USC. He doesn't have the arm of his brother, so I don't see him being converted to catcher... but yeah, Alex Burnett's brother and had the talent to go before Round 10. I would expect we hear his named called as a re-draft in 2015 (unless, of course, there is spendable money left in the bonus pool).

Looks like the Twins will not sign him. Details here (https://twitter.com/jordangarretson/status/210489031631446016).

jokin
06-06-2012, 04:56 PM
I think he's committed to USC. He doesn't have the arm of his brother, so I don't see him being converted to catcher... but yeah, Alex Burnett's brother and had the talent to go before Round 10. I would expect we hear his named called as a re-draft in 2015 (unless, of course, there is spendable money left in the bonus pool).

Thanks, that is a lot of good info there! I guess now we need the analysis of what the Twins' strategy has been in the later rounds. For Robinson (and others), has this just been a "courtesy" draft pick to let the player know of the Twins interest for later on? The impression going into the draft from the media was the Twins had a dire need to restock the farm teams, top to bottom. The Twins actions suggessts that apparently hasn't happened. I thought for sure there would be at least a couple Puerto Rico/Virgin Ilds signings in the late rounds. Is the "restocking" going to happen primarily in the subsequent drafts/international and undrafted free agent signings/waiver wire bargain bin pick-ups?

James
06-06-2012, 04:59 PM
Are you sure? By what I read, the $100K per pick is not added to the pool and can't be accumulated. Any pick after round 10 can be given at most $100K, and any overage put you at risk of fines/losing picks. That makes sense; the purpose is to prevent teams not signing a lot of later round picks to artificially inflate the bonus pool for someone they want badly, thus skewing the purpose of the bonus pool in the first place.

I could be wrong though.
From the CBA:
Each Club will be assigned an aggregate Signing Bonus Pool prior to each draft.
For the purpose of calculating the Signing Bonus Pools, each pick in the first 10
rounds of the draft has been assigned a value. (These values will grow each year
with the rate of growth of industry revenue.) A Club’s Signing Bonus Pool equals
the sum of the values of that Club’s selections in the first 10 rounds of the draft.
Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a Club’s Signing
Bonus Pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess
of $100,000 will count against the Pool.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/2011_CBA.pdf

That link is just to a summary of the CBA. I didn't want to try looking through the full thing as it is close to 300 pages. But here's a link:
http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

IdahoPilgrim
06-06-2012, 05:04 PM
From the CBA:
Each Club will be assigned an aggregate Signing Bonus Pool prior to each draft.
For the purpose of calculating the Signing Bonus Pools, each pick in the first 10
rounds of the draft has been assigned a value. (These values will grow each year
with the rate of growth of industry revenue.) A Club’s Signing Bonus Pool equals
the sum of the values of that Club’s selections in the first 10 rounds of the draft.
Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a Club’s Signing
Bonus Pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess
of $100,000 will count against the Pool.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/2011_CBA.pdf

OK, thanks. I misread your first post, and you are right. That makes sense to me now.:)

Thrylos
06-06-2012, 05:07 PM
From the CBA:
Each Club will be assigned an aggregate Signing Bonus Pool prior to each draft.
For the purpose of calculating the Signing Bonus Pools, each pick in the first 10
rounds of the draft has been assigned a value. (These values will grow each year
with the rate of growth of industry revenue.) A Club’s Signing Bonus Pool equals
the sum of the values of that Club’s selections in the first 10 rounds of the draft.
Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a Club’s Signing
Bonus Pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess
of $100,000 will count against the Pool.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/2011_CBA.pdf

True. But here is how it works, in plain English: The Twins' pool is $12,368,200, based on their top 10 round picks, with their 10th rounder, DJ Baxendale slated to be signed up to $125K.

Now if the Twins spend (let's say) $10 M to sign all their top 10 picks, they would have $2.3M extra to throw to round 11-40 picks. They can pay all that to one or to more players. So potentially a 40th rounder, can make $2.4M in this scenario. All good and kosher and no penalties.



Of course, they can pay someone in the 1st 10 rounds above slot, but that is totalled. Picks 11-40 can be singed for up to $100K each, but if someone signs for less, the leftover cannot be spent elsewhere.

James
06-06-2012, 05:13 PM
True. But here is how it works, in plain English: The Twins' pool is $12,368,200, based on their top 10 round picks, with their 10th rounder, DJ Baxendale slated to be signed up to $125K.

Now if the Twins spend (let's say) $10 M to sign all their top 10 picks, they would have $2.3M extra to throw to round 11-40 picks. They can pay all that to one or to more players. So potentially a 40th rounder, can make $2.4M in this scenario. All good and kosher and no penalties.

Of course, they can pay someone in the 1st 10 rounds above slot, but that is totalled. Picks 11-40 can be singed for up to $100K each, but if someone signs for less, the leftover cannot be spent elsewhere.
That is how read the statement as well. But your explanation is pretty concise.

Now we just get to wait and see how the Twins spread that bonus money around.

mike wants wins
06-06-2012, 05:16 PM
Sorry if I missed it, but did anyone post this already?

http://www.twitvid.com/2ZDTY

It is the celebration by the Berrios (sp?).

mike wants wins
06-06-2012, 05:19 PM
Interesting, I had been led to believe you could not apply the bonus pool money to the later picks. Thanks for the update.

Thrylos
06-06-2012, 05:55 PM
Sorry if I missed it, but did anyone post this already?

http://www.twitvid.com/2ZDTY

It is the celebration by the Berrios (sp?).

Yes. The kid reduced to tears practically is Twins' first of the 2 sup round picks, RHP Jose Berrios

Shane Wahl
06-06-2012, 06:31 PM
Thanks for posting the video. Good to see.

PMKI
06-06-2012, 06:43 PM
I like his reaction a lot better than Buxton's.

Einstein
06-06-2012, 10:30 PM
Sorry if I missed it, but did anyone post this already?

http://www.twitvid.com/2ZDTY

It is the celebration by the Berrios (sp?).

Thanks! Good to see. I'm happy for him.