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travistwinstalk
06-04-2012, 12:07 PM
According to Jon Heyman the Twins are preparing to take Georgia HS OF Byron Buxton at 2 after Houston takes SP Mark Appel at 1. Report is unconfirmed but should not be a surprise. Thoughts?

nicksaviking
06-04-2012, 12:28 PM
It seems inevitable. I still don't know why there haven't been any comparasons to Donavan Tate, they seem so comparable, same size, position and stats; both are "5 tool" guys from rural Georgia devoid of real compition. Tate has been such a bust, it worries me. It just seems like there was a vacuum caused by a lack of big name bats this year and Buxton is the name who got pushed to fill the void.

twinstalker
06-04-2012, 12:32 PM
Repost from another thread:
The best player in the draft is Carlos Correa. John Sickels, a Twins fan, is almost beside himself with the possibility the Twins will pass on him. (Note: you'll find a mock draft where John takes Appel, but the draft where he got to choose who he wanted, he took Correa).

IdahoPilgrim
06-04-2012, 12:41 PM
The best part about this is this is a debate that we can relive over and over for the next 3 years, as we watch how the #2 pick (whoever it is) develops and as we watch how the other options fare on their journey to the bigs.:)

Yoshii
06-04-2012, 12:48 PM
Any chance of Buxton being called up to play this year? He could play off the bench as our 4th OF!

Einstein
06-04-2012, 12:56 PM
Any chance of Buxton being called up to play this year? He could play off the bench as our 4th OF!Seriously?

Einstein
06-04-2012, 12:58 PM
It seems inevitable. I still don't know why there haven't been any comparasons to Donavan Tate, they seem so comparable, same size, position and stats; both are "5 tool" guys from rural Georgia devoid of real compition. Tate has been such a bust, it worries me. It just seems like there was a vacuum caused by a lack of big name bats this year and Buxton is the name who got pushed to fill the void.Might be a fair comparison if not for Tate's drug issues.

CK
06-04-2012, 01:02 PM
Any chance of Buxton being called up to play this year? He could play off the bench as our 4th OF!
Trolling...

mike wants wins
06-04-2012, 01:13 PM
Plus we will get to watch gausman strike out twins hitters while Buxton is in a ball after Kansas city drafts him.

PMKI
06-04-2012, 01:15 PM
Right now my order of who I want the Twins to draft is 1. Correa 2. Giolito (won't happen) 3. Gausman 4. Buxton

birdwatcher
06-04-2012, 01:18 PM
I've never wanted a Twins choice to suceed more than this pick. Why? Because I'm so tired of hearing how the Adam Johnson pick proves the Twins are bad talent evaluators by fans who conveniently ignore that NONE of picks#2-10 that year panned out.

I have to admit Buxton makes me nervous, given the "hit tool" is the one in question, especially the power potential. But something else tells me they will, and SHOULD take him or Correa at #2. I'm even MORE nervous about these college pitchers.

nicksaviking
06-04-2012, 01:40 PM
Might be a fair comparison if not for Tate's drug issues.

That's true, but I don't think it would be fair to say the issues are the reason for his problems on the field.

Like Buxton, everyone said he had the frame to develop power, but Tate has yet to hit a HR outside of rookie league. Denard Span is 6'0" 210 lbs, Joe Mauer is 6'5" 230 lb, both were drafted out of high school and have the size for power but did not develop any mostly due to their swings and approach at the plate. We can't possibly think a guy who doesn't have high school power is going to suddenly develop it when the Twins hound him to constantly go the other way.

Shane Wahl
06-04-2012, 01:42 PM
I've never wanted a Twins choice to suceed more than this pick. Why? Because I'm so tired of hearing how the Adam Johnson pick proves the Twins are bad talent evaluators by fans who conveniently ignore that NONE of picks#2-10 that year panned out.

I have to admit Buxton makes me nervous, given the "hit tool" is the one in question, especially the power potential. But something else tells me they will, and SHOULD take him or Correa at #2. I'm even MORE nervous about these college pitchers.

Just because none of the later picks in the first ten panned out, does not mean that one of them wouldn't have in the Twins organization.

J-Dog Dungan
06-04-2012, 01:50 PM
My order for the Twins to draft would be 1)Gausman 2) Buxton 3) Some guy that none of us have heard of

StormJH1
06-04-2012, 02:07 PM
That's true, but I don't think it would be fair to say the issues are the reason for his problems on the field.

Like Buxton, everyone said he had the frame to develop power, but Tate has yet to hit a HR outside of rookie league. Denard Span is 6'0" 210 lbs, Joe Mauer is 6'5" 230 lb, both were drafted out of high school and have the size for power but did not develop any mostly due to their swings and approach at the plate. We can't possibly think a guy who doesn't have high school power is going to suddenly develop it when the Twins hound him to constantly go the other way.
This is a great take. You have to look at "frame" to some degree, obviously, because if a guy is 5'9" 160lb, I'm sorry, but he's never going to be a 15-HR guy. Ben Revere, for example, is a guy that had a ceiling from the moment he was drafted.

But that doesn't mean that 6'3" 220lb behemoth will necessarily become a power hitter either. Mauer murdered that ball this weekend for his 3rd HR, but that just isn't his approach. He either can't or won't be that guy, so he is what he is.

I hear all this talk about the "toolsy" outfielders and I instantly think of the Upton brothers and a lot of the guys the Rays have drafted. But there's an interesting thing going on with (6'4", 190 lb) Dexter Fowler right now. He's 26 and it was basically presumed he was a decent leadoff-type hitter, and suddenly he has his career high in HR's (8) after only 168 plate appearances. Bat speed and technique can generate power just the same that sheer brute muscle can. Alfonso Soriano is one of those guys who never looked that strong but can absolutely kill a baseball with whatever weight he does have on his frame.

I'd rather pick Buxton here and be wrong about it, than take a pitcher (even one who could be decent in the majors) and have to watch 4 years ago if Buxton blows up somewhere.

Thrylos
06-04-2012, 02:12 PM
if a guy is 5'9" 160lb, I'm sorry, but he's never going to be a 15-HR guy. .

Two words: Kirby Puckett. He was actually under 160 lbs when he broke in. "Never" is way too fatalistic a word

mike wants wins
06-04-2012, 02:14 PM
I'm ok with the pick, I'd just prefer a pitcher, given what we know about all the players and the Twins' minor league system (and its utter lack of pitching depth). I think I might prefer Correa also.

SEC
06-04-2012, 02:33 PM
I prefer Correa and Gausman over Buxton so I kind of hope this one of those "leaked" rumors that never end up true. Two positions, SS and Pitchers, that I value over OF and I think position factors into best player available. Lets just hope that if it is Buxton, he isn't a bust

mlhouse
06-04-2012, 02:41 PM
Correa and Buxton are no sure shots even if they have the highest "upside". But the Twins organization simply cannot wait 6 years for them to develop. THey need pitching help now, and that means a college arm.

nicksaviking
06-04-2012, 02:42 PM
Dustin Pedroia is 5'8" 165lb's and has more HR than 6'+ 200lb+ Mauer and Span combined. I just don't see Buxton suddnely finding his power in this organization, there is just such little track record for it. In the last 30 years you can count the consistant and legit power hitters the Twins drafted and developed on 1 finger. Chris Parmelee was even transitioned away from being a slugger, it might have been the right move, but I don't think the Twins have a very good template as to how to develop power while keeping the other 4 "tools." Maybe Buxton is the exception, and I know I'm in the minority, but I think the odds that he develops MVP credentials are no better than any of the hard throwing pitchers.

Gernzy
06-04-2012, 02:53 PM
I want a pitcher as well, but after Appel there is no one who truely stands out. Even Appel might not be a stud. Buxton is probably the safest pick.

tpb8
06-04-2012, 02:54 PM
Correa and Buxton are no sure shots even if they have the highest "upside". But the Twins organization simply cannot wait 6 years for them to develop. THey need pitching help now, and that means a college arm.

By "now" do you mean 2014? Are you expecting this amazing college pitcher to step right into the rotation?

ashburyjohn
06-04-2012, 02:58 PM
My order for the Twins to draft would be 1)Gausman 2) Buxton 3) Some guy that none of us have heard of

I'm curious why you believe some player has flown under the radar after all this time and be worth a #2 pick. If it's purely a joke, I apologizing for letting it whoosh past me.

nicksaviking
06-04-2012, 03:04 PM
I want a pitcher as well, but after Appel there is no one who truely stands out. Even Appel might not be a stud. Buxton is probably the safest pick.

Safe isn't the same as sure thing and Buxton is no sure thing. Regardless, safe doesn't win the World Series, no one gets to the top without taking some risks, something the Twins have always been frightened to do.

Gernzy
06-04-2012, 03:07 PM
Safe isn't the same as sure thing and Buxton is no sure thing. Regardless, safe doesn't win the World Series, no one gets to the top without taking some risks, something the Twins have always been frightened to do.

None of them are sure things. That is the biggest problem with this draft. Typical we have a high draft pick and the field is weak.

birdwatcher
06-04-2012, 03:08 PM
shanewahl, this is not a criticism, just an observation about your take on the Adam Johnson draft year, where all of picks #2-10 were busts. So, if the Twins had drafted one of the eight others who busted instead of Johnson, that pick may have succeeded in the Twin's system? This logic is so very contrary to what most people seem to think, which is that being subjected to the Twin's development prowess greatly reduces a pick's chances for success.

My belief is that these players succeed or fail on their own merits for the most part.

travistwinstalk
06-04-2012, 03:13 PM
i dont know what safe is as there is not a safe pick in Baseball. Ill take the guy with the most upside and that is Buxton. He is a 5 tool talent who has a chance to be in the Matt Kemp, Justin Upton range. Will he get there probably not, but he has the most god given talent and I would have no problem if the Twins took the guy with the most talent that is left on the board every year. This year it is Buxton so they should take him and not worry because he doesn't fill a need right now. The thing about that is even a college pitcher wouldn't be ready for 2-3 years and who knows what the Twins will look like in 3 years. So the bottom line is take the best athlete available and worry about where he fits in later.

darin617
06-04-2012, 03:15 PM
The question I have about Byron Buxton is, does he have a stronger arm than Ben Revere? hahahahhaha

Also, to slam on little Ben one more time was he know as a 3 tool player when he was drafted?

righty8383
06-04-2012, 03:16 PM
By "now" do you mean 2014? Are you expecting this amazing college pitcher to step right into the rotation?

Not right away but next year would be a safe bet. Also mlhouse suggesting Correa or Buxton would take 6 years is quite extreme. Even the Twins wouldn't take nearly that long to get such a high pick through the minors unless something goes wrong. 3or 4 years would be more accurate.

Shane Wahl
06-04-2012, 03:20 PM
shanewahl, this is not a criticism, just an observation about your take on the Adam Johnson draft year, where all of picks #2-10 were busts. So, if the Twins had drafted one of the eight others who busted instead of Johnson, that pick may have succeeded in the Twin's system? This logic is so very contrary to what most people seem to think, which is that being subjected to the Twin's development prowess greatly reduces a pick's chances for success.

My belief is that these players succeed or fail on their own merits for the most part.

All I mean is that it isn't set in stone that all of those players would have failed if drafted elsewhere (anywhere). I am not sure about individual cases, but if injuries impacted any of them, then clearly such injuries may very well have not happened if in a different environment. And different coaches matter, different development timeframes . . . maybe some of those players were rushed too fast? In any event, this kind of "set in stone" mentality reminds me of when I hear announcers talk about "if only" as in "if only he wouldn't have attempted to steal second base and get thrown out, that would have been a two-run homer" (for example). That ignores that a man on first vs. no one on is a completely different situation with different pitches, throwing from the stretch, etc. etc.

Jim Crikket
06-04-2012, 03:28 PM
Not right away but next year would be a safe bet. Also mlhouse suggesting Correa or Buxton would take 6 years is quite extreme. Even the Twins wouldn't take nearly that long to get such a high pick through the minors unless something goes wrong. 3or 4 years would be more accurate.

3-4 years to get a HS position player through the system? The Twins? I wouldn't bet my paycheck on that. yes, Buxton or Correa could follow a path similar to Mauer, but the Twins rarely push a teenage positional prospect aggressively.

Dilligaf69
06-04-2012, 03:40 PM
Correa and Buxton are no sure shots even if they have the highest "upside". But the Twins organization simply cannot wait 6 years for them to develop. THey need pitching help now, and that means a college arm.

I would agree with this

Cap'n Piranha
06-04-2012, 03:41 PM
It seems inevitable. I still don't know why there haven't been any comparasons to Donavan Tate, they seem so comparable, same size, position and stats; both are "5 tool" guys from rural Georgia devoid of real compition. Tate has been such a bust, it worries me. It just seems like there was a vacuum caused by a lack of big name bats this year and Buxton is the name who got pushed to fill the void.

I'll admit, I'm not well versed on Donovan Tate, but here's a link to an SI piece on Buxton. How much of this is media gloss and trying to tell a story I don't know, but if half of it is true, it's pretty good

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1198695/index.htm

Incidentally, in A-Rod's senior season he hit .505 with 9 homers, and comparable stolen base numbers. For those concerned about Buxton's power, there is a throw-away stat in the article above that says Buxton hit 14 homers in his sophomore year, and then stopped getting pitches to hit. Take it for what it's worth.

Dilligaf69
06-04-2012, 03:42 PM
None of them are sure things. That is the biggest problem with this draft. Typical we have a high draft pick and the field is weak.


I would say this for the ML draft in general not just this yr but every yr...way more then the other major sports drafts because it takes so long to develop most of these guys.

righty8383
06-04-2012, 03:44 PM
3-4 years to get a HS position player through the system? The Twins? I wouldn't bet my paycheck on that. yes, Buxton or Correa could follow a path similar to Mauer, but the Twins rarely push a teenage positional prospect aggressively.
3-4 years is not aggressive by any teams standards for a player taken so high. Cuddyer, Kubel, Mauer, Morneau were all drafted out of high school and they were all in the bigs within or around 4 years. Not all these guys were even 1st rounders. So the point is, if THEY can move through in that amount of time, why can't Buxton so long as he's producing? Oh yeah, and Revere too. So 6 years IS extreme.

travistwinstalk
06-04-2012, 03:47 PM
A similiar case was Denard Span who was drafted in first round in 2002 and didn't become a Twins regular until 2008 that is 6 years of minor league time. then there is Michael Cuddyer who was taken 9th in 1997 and didn't make Twins debut until 2003. Even to the extreme Jason Kubel he was a 12th rounder who moved through the system and he spent 5 minor league seasons. What I am trying to say that Joe Mauer, Bryce Harper,and Ken Griffey Jr. are oddities and not the norm. Normally a high school hitter takes 5-6 years to get to the big leagues and thats just the way it is. So for those that think Buxton or Correa are going to be playing at Target Field inside the next 5 years you are fooling yourself that is not happening.

Chance
06-04-2012, 03:48 PM
1) Gausman 2) Giolito 3) Correa.

If Gausman and Buxton both pan out, which one would you rather have? Number 1-2 starter or another span like player?

Chance
06-04-2012, 03:52 PM
1) Gausman 2) Giolito 3) Correa.

If Gausman and Buxton both pan out, which one would you rather have? Number 1-2 starter or another span like player?

Gausman could also be in the majors as soon as 2014 where buxton is more likely 2017ish

righty8383
06-04-2012, 03:53 PM
A similiar case was Denard Span who was drafted in first round in 2002 and didn't become a Twins regular until 2008 that is 6 years of minor league time. then there is Michael Cuddyer who was taken 9th in 1997 and didn't make Twins debut until 2003. Even to the extreme Jason Kubel he was a 12th rounder who moved through the system and he spent 5 minor league seasons. What I am trying to say that Joe Mauer, Bryce Harper,and Ken Griffey Jr. are oddities and not the norm. Normally a high school hitter takes 5-6 years to get to the big leagues and thats just the way it is. So for those that think Buxton or Correa are going to be playing at Target Field inside the next 5 years you are fooling yourself that is not happening.
Cuddyer made his debut in 2001, thats 4 years by my math. Kubel was drafted in 2000 and dubuted in 2004. Span is your only legit example. He moved slow then got screwed out of a job when the Twins traded for Gomez. So the saying that I am fooling myself by thinking that Correa or Buxton will be in the bigs within 5 years, well, the evidence suggests otherwise, all you have to do is take a look.

twinstalker
06-04-2012, 03:59 PM
There is no doubt about Correa's hit tool. With Buxton there is all kinds of doubt. People compare him to BJ Upton. I'll be honest, I'd be disappointed if they ended up with someone equally as good as BJ Upton. Correa may take four years, but he'll be in the majors raking. Of all the players mentioned for the top seven, Correa has the best risk/upside combo.

luckylager
06-04-2012, 04:01 PM
Gausman does not appear to project as an "Ace". Scouting Report from mlb.comFastball: Gausman has plenty of arm strength. He's been up to 95 mph in the past and was sitting 89-93 mph in this start.
Fastball movement: Throws a pretty straight fastball.
Slider: It's a below-average slider that's been flat and without bite.
Curve: His curve is below-average.
Changeup: He has trouble throwing his changeup for strikes.
Control: Shows average overall command but struggles commanding his secondary stuff.
Poise: Has decent mound presence.
Physical Description: Gausman is tall and wiry. He's projectable, but he might have some difficulty putting on weight.
Medical Update: Healthy.
Strengths: It's all about arm strength and the ability to throw an above-average to plus fastball. He's got a projectable frame and is very athletic.
Weaknesses: His secondary stuff is all below-average, both in command and effectiveness.
Summary: Gausman is a known name in Draft circles after hitting the summer showcase circuits. In those settings, he was able to show off his plus arm strength and the ability to light up radar guns from a projectable frame. This spring, however, he hasn't shown the aptitude to do much else consistently. His secondary stuff has not been sharp, and he struggles to throw any of those offerings for strikes. As a "name" prospect who does have big-time arm strength, he's still likely to garner some interest, but it seems like his stock has taken a hit this spring.

Chance
06-04-2012, 04:09 PM
As far as position players go I feel that Correa is a better pick than Buxton. And i feel that if Gausman, who resently started throwing a slider instead of a curve, develops a nice breaking ball that he can get strike outs with he will be an "Ace" type pitcher.

CDog
06-04-2012, 04:21 PM
This is a more general question than the thread, perhaps, but it keeps coming up here about how long it will take various people to get to the big leagues. Generally speaking, why do "we" care? Are some of you planning to stop being Twins fans in the next few years and don't want to miss the debut of Prospect X if it's outside that window? As long as the path isn't ridiculously long where you start to lose them to Rule 5 draft or they're not ready when they're out of options (both seem to be worries outside the scope of this discussion), shouldn't the concern be how good they can be when they do get to the big league team?

Chance
06-04-2012, 04:25 PM
Gausman

10-1, 2.84 ERA, 15 GS, 1072/3 IP, 93 H, 38 R, 34 ER, 24 BB, 125 K

Low walk and high strike out rates. He recently switched to a slider and it has been steadily improving as he has been throwing it. He has been gaining control with his change up which is said to be "major league ready." How many pitching prospects come out with a plus breaking ball and plus arm strength? Buxton hasn't shown power or much offense for the level of competition he has played against. I rather trust a pitcher to tune his pitches with major league help than a batter to learn how to bat. He might have great defense but to me he won't be anything more than a Hicks, talented but cant put it together to be an all-star player which is what you want with the second pick. He has too many question marks to draft at 2.

Jim Crikket
06-04-2012, 04:29 PM
3-4 years is not aggressive by any teams standards for a player taken so high. Cuddyer, Kubel, Mauer, Morneau were all drafted out of high school and they were all in the bigs within or around 4 years. Not all these guys were even 1st rounders. So the point is, if THEY can move through in that amount of time, why can't Buxton so long as he's producing? Oh yeah, and Revere too. So 6 years IS extreme.

If all you want to look at is time before a MLB debut, that's fine, but as long as a player is still playing most of his season in the minor leagues, I don't think we can consider him to have gotten "through the minors" in this organization.

Cuddyer was drafted in 1997 and didn't play more games at the MLB level than in the minors until 2004.
Kubel was drafted in 2000 and didn't play more games at the MLB level than in the minors until 2006 (granted the 2005 year was lost to injury, so he never completed 5 full years of minor league ball).
Justin Morneau was drafted in 1999 and didn't play more than half a season at the MLB level until 2005.
Ben Revere made it in four years, but I'd suggest that was as much due to lack of other options last year as it was to his own performance.

Point is simply that anyone who thinks a HS position player who's drafted #2 tonight by the Twins will automatically be suiting up for them on an everyday basis four years from now is likely being ambitously optimistic. Mauer did it in three years, but that doesn't happen often.

Jim Crikket
06-04-2012, 04:36 PM
Cuddyer made his debut in 2001, thats 4 years by my math. Kubel was drafted in 2000 and dubuted in 2004. Span is your only legit example. He moved slow then got screwed out of a job when the Twins traded for Gomez. So the saying that I am fooling myself by thinking that Correa or Buxton will be in the bigs within 5 years, well, the evidence suggests otherwise, all you have to do is take a look.

You started out by saying 3-4 years to get "through the minors" isn't aggressive, but now the standard is having a MLB debut within 5 years? The latter, I'll agree with... a debut within 5 years isn't unusual. But that's not "through the minors" unless he (unlike your examples) sticks and it doesn't make 6 years "quite extreme" if it happens to take that long.

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-04-2012, 05:18 PM
http://i47.tinypic.com/1604mdg.jpg