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View Full Version : Report: Astros To Select Appel



darin617
06-03-2012, 05:43 PM
This is according to Jim Bowden of ESPN. I hope this means the Twins decide to draft Kevin Gausman, RHP from Louisiana State. I hope they decide to pass on Byron Buxton, who is being compared to Matt Kemp and BJ and Justin Upton. I woould hate to see another HS OF taken since Aaron Hicks has still not shown much upside. Bottom line is they need pitching help that would be on the fast track and Kevin Gausman might be better than Appel.

CK
06-03-2012, 05:56 PM
What if Buxton is a lot better than Hicks... Draft position tends to suggest this. But, yes, Gaussman would be good too. I just don't want another UCL tear.

PMKI
06-03-2012, 06:03 PM
I was a big Buxton believer but lately have became very nervous about drafting him. I just feel a lot safer drafting Correa even though he is also a big unknown but the fact that he is almost a year younger than Buxton is impressive.

jorgenswest
06-03-2012, 06:12 PM
I appreciated this study over at Puckett's Pond.

http://puckettspond.com/2012/05/15/what-type-of-player-should-the-twins-draft/

It leaves me concerned about drafting college pitchers in hopes of getting an all star player. They appear to be the least safe pick when drafting number 2.

pjnelly
06-03-2012, 06:14 PM
They should draft Buxton. There is too much risk with drafting a pitcher that high for the amount they will have to pay. Pitching injuries have hurt us too much lately--we should try to acquire pitching via trade or free agency instead.

wagwan
06-03-2012, 06:32 PM
The Puckett Pond study is well done but still essentially meaningless. Its the old small survey size syndrome. Over 18 years, there is about 100 guys per category. If a few college pitchers make it out of this class, or don't make it, as seems more likely given the reports of the strength of the class, the whole percentage ranking could change. They still have to draft based on the tools and makeup of each guy. I don't know anything about the personalities and talents of Buxton, Corea, Gausman et al.. I hope the actual draft guys do.

jorgenswest
06-03-2012, 06:44 PM
Has there been a perception that a college pitcher is a safe pick? If so, does it change that perception?

IdahoPilgrim
06-03-2012, 07:00 PM
If he's available, you take Buxton. The upside is to much to pass on, and right now, to be blunt, while we have a number of OF prospects, this year they have been somewhat underwhelming. Benson is mired in AA after slumping miserably in Rochester, Hicks is showing promise but is not lighting up the league in AA and has been advancing slowly, and Arcia is looking good at high A, but it is still uncertain he will fully mature like the Twins hope. If we can get a better bet on an OF prospect, I say take it, especially if people are right and Span is trade-bait.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
06-03-2012, 07:23 PM
If he's available, you take Buxton. The upside is to much to pass on, and right now, to be blunt, while we have a number of OF prospects, this year they have been somewhat underwhelming. Benson is mired in AA after slumping miserably in Rochester, Hicks is showing promise but is not lighting up the league in AA and has been advancing slowly, and Arcia is looking good at high A, but it is still uncertain he will fully mature like the Twins hope. If we can get a better bet on an OF prospect, I say take it, especially if people are right and Span is trade-bait.

Well said. There is just no explanation or reason for the Twins to pass on Byron Buxton if he's available. He's the best player in the draft and has crazy upside. If the Astros are too stupid to realize it, the Twins should give them the finger, take Buxton, and laugh all the way to the bank.

J-Dog Dungan
06-03-2012, 07:30 PM
If the Twins do take Buxton, I would assume that they would be thinking that they would try to sell one or more of their minor league outfielders to get pitching or that they are hoping they get lucky with who is left over in the compensation rounds.

clutterheart
06-03-2012, 07:32 PM
From the little I know if its vs Buxton & Correa I go Correa. If the twins don't take a pitcher he looks to be the best.

darin617
06-03-2012, 07:36 PM
They should draft Buxton. There is too much risk with drafting a pitcher that high for the amount they will have to pay. Pitching injuries have hurt us too much lately--we should try to acquire pitching via trade or free agency instead.

OMG that was hilarious! The Twins acquiring a pitcher via trade or FA. You just gotta love a rotation made up of all #4 or 5 starters or even worse AAAA.

nicksaviking
06-03-2012, 08:28 PM
I'm just curious from the Buxton backers, why do you feel he is such a safe bet?

Either way, making "safe" decisions is how a club wins multiple division championships but gets trounced annually in the playoffs. Congratulations Twin's front office you have finally conditioned the fan base to think taking chances is a bad thing.

mike wants wins
06-03-2012, 08:33 PM
Everything I read on Buxton is that he's the risky hitter pick, huge upside, but "hitting is his least advanced skill", sounds like Hicks to me.

IdahoPilgrim
06-03-2012, 08:49 PM
NOBODY is a safe bet - not Buxton, and not a college pitcher. No matter who they pick, you're taking a risk. The risk with a high school outfielder as that he never becomes more than a career minor-leaguer. The risk with a college pitcher is he blows out his elbow the first year he's in your organization (sound familiar?). You weigh that against the potential reward. Everybody will balance those differently, but the consensus top prospect nationwide is Buxton. Whether he's top of the Twins thinking, we'll find out.

PMKI
06-03-2012, 08:55 PM
Anybody wish we would draft Giolito?

Riverbrian
06-03-2012, 09:01 PM
I appreciated this study over at Puckett's Pond.

http://puckettspond.com/2012/05/15/what-type-of-player-should-the-twins-draft/

It leaves me concerned about drafting college pitchers in hopes of getting an all star player. They appear to be the least safe pick when drafting number 2.

I enjoyed the research... It was a very interesting read. This isn't a slam of the research because I do appreciate it, but I wouldnt place much credence in it.

1. High School Pitchers would logically be more apt to reach the elite status because the elite arms are being drafted and paid money to not attend college. College guys are later bloomers (not in all cases).

2. Hitters are a safer bet because pitchers tend to have their arms fall off. The research was interesting but fairly predictable.

The baseball draft is a crap shoot. Every team has missed and missed a lot. If you want the safe pick. I doubt that he is available or has a neon sign flashing safe over his head.

Personally, I would not shy away from pitching because they are injury risks. They are and that means you need more to cover. Everybody is searching for pitching because it is critical to a teams fortune.

The Twins pitching hole is about as steep as it gets. If you think you can trade Arcia for pitching... Umm...good luck with that. You can trade Arcia for soon to be free agent pitcher X but the Twins won't be looking for that guy.

The college guy gets here quicker... Time is an issue... and if TR isn't factoring in time when determining the BPA for us... He is failing as Deron Johnson's boss.

Im ok with Buxton being the draftee but damn it... He better be safe. He can't be a miss cuz we will be waiting for him and while we are waiting. Our team will be trying to figure out how to overcome 5 runs a game. We need to draft a hundred pitchers and hope that 10 percent work out.

If Buxton is the guy and his learning curve is like Hicks. Tack on some more years to our comeback.

darin617
06-03-2012, 09:11 PM
Anybody wish we would draft Giolito?

I would like that. The only problem would be how the Twins would make him pitch to contact and quit trying to blow hitters away with gas.

Jeremy Nygaard
06-03-2012, 09:24 PM
Jim Callis of Baseball America says the Astros are still considering five names.

About Buxton, yeah, there's risk... but with him, there is a chance for a huge reward. The Twins could take Correa. They've had a lot of luck with that island. But it's more about his bat.

Law's ranking of each:
Hitting: Both presently 35. Future for Buxton 70, Correa 60.
Power: Correa presently 45, Buxton 35. Future Correa 65, Buxton 60.
Speed: Buxton present/future 80; Correa present/future 60.
Range: Buxton 50/70; Correa 40/60.
Arm: Buxton 70/70; Correa 60/60

Law has Buxton #1 on his board and Correa #2.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in that draft room. Obviously, Hector Otero (the P.R. scout) has a feather in his cap for Eddie Rosario. The Georgia scout, Jack Powell, was the guy that recommended Shooter Hunt. Take a look below and tell me which guy you'd be more likely to listen to... obviously there's more to it than just these two scouts, but interesting nonetheless.

(Signed picks only)

2011: Otero - Boyd (1s), D. Rodriguez (6), Montanez (15), Torres (45)
Powell - Gruver (7), Higginbotham (26), Leachman (37)

2010: Otero - Rosario (4), D. Gutierrez (18)
Powell - Goodrum (2), Fawbush (21)

2009: Otero - Herrmann (6), Ahorrio (45), Calacano (49)
Powell - Tootle (3)

Players of note in 07 and 08
2008: Otero - C. Gutierrez (1), Ortiz (4)
Powell - Hunt (1s)

2007: Otero - Rams (2), Morales (3)

Riverbrian
06-03-2012, 09:41 PM
Jim Callis of Baseball America says the Astros are still considering five names.

About Buxton, yeah, there's risk... but with him, there is a chance for a huge reward. The Twins could take Correa. They've had a lot of luck with that island. But it's more about his bat.

Law's ranking of each:
Hitting: Both presently 35. Future for Buxton 70, Correa 60.
Power: Correa presently 45, Buxton 35. Future Correa 65, Buxton 60.
Speed: Buxton present/future 80; Correa present/future 60.
Range: Buxton 50/70; Correa 40/60.
Arm: Buxton 70/70; Correa 60/60

Law has Buxton #1 on his board and Correa #2.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in that draft room. Obviously, Hector Otero (the P.R. scout) has a feather in his cap for Eddie Rosario. The Georgia scout, Jack Powell, was the guy that recommended Shooter Hunt. Take a look below and tell me which guy you'd be more likely to listen to... obviously there's more to it than just these two scouts, but interesting nonetheless.

(Signed picks only)

2011: Otero - Boyd (1s), D. Rodriguez (6), Montanez (15), Torres (45)
Powell - Gruver (7), Higginbotham (26), Leachman (37)

2010: Otero - Rosario (4), D. Gutierrez (18)
Powell - Goodrum (2), Fawbush (21)

2009: Otero - Herrmann (6), Ahorrio (45), Calacano (49)
Powell - Tootle (3)

Players of note in 07 and 08
2008: Otero - C. Gutierrez (1), Ortiz (4)
Powell - Hunt (1s)

2007: Otero - Rams (2), Morales (3)

You'd listen to Otero but you can't handicap Buxton cuz he's in the Powell region. With this high of a pick... Serious cross checking has to be happening. Powell may be the better snake oil salesman but here's to hoping that the Twins have more then Powell's ratings and advocacy.

Great post though. I was not thinking about that angle. I'm gonna put you down on my smart poster list. You got me thinking now.

twinswon1991
06-03-2012, 09:48 PM
I would like that. The only problem would be how the Twins would make him pitch to contact and quit trying to blow hitters away with gas.

I agree 100%. I like Giolito followed by Buxton and Correa. My main concern about Giolito would be the Twins ruining him by going pitch to contact. I feel Buxton and Correa are far superior to the college pitchers. The Twins should use their next 4-5 picks on starters and hope that they get 1 MLB #3 starter out of the group.

This organization needs better coaching or it doesn't matter who they take, they will continue to run off good talent like Hardy, Dickey, Humber, Ortiz, Jones, on, on, on if they do not conform to pitch to contact or PuntoBall.

Jeremy Nygaard
06-03-2012, 09:55 PM
You'd listen to Otero but you can't handicap Buxton cuz he's in the Powell region. With this high of a pick... Serious cross checking has to be happening. Powell may be the better snake oil salesman but here's to hoping that the Twins have more then Powell's ratings and advocacy.

I agree with you completely. I would hope that everybody that ranks higher than "area scout" has seen both of these guys (and everyone else being seriously considered) multiple times. I've read people say, "we can't take Buxton, he could turn out worse than Hicks", "we can't take (insert college pitcher), look at Gibson and Wimmers." The reality is that DJ's job could be riding on this one...


Great post though. I was not thinking about that angle. I'm gonna put you down on my smart poster list. You got me thinking now.

Thanks. I hope I can stay there!

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-03-2012, 10:18 PM
It is a futile endeavor to try to compare Buxton to Hicks. Buxton has significantly more upside and a better skill set then Hicks did coming out of HS.

I understand how everyone wants to find some Ace pitcher ASAP because the Twins currently lack in SP, but in the draft you always draft for talent this high and not for need, especially since the majority of these players won't even be big parts of your major league club for 3+ years. Heck even our minor league OF depth has taken a big hit this year, the only top OF prospect pulling his weight is Arcia. Hicks/Benson/Morales etc all have looked less than stellar (and thats being nice!)

None of the arms this year jump out as anything close to the Bauer types we saw last year, the Twins will have plenty of chances to draft arms with all there comp picks and high 2nd round pick. At this point you gotta go with Buxton IMO, and we should feel lucky as most people view him as the overall top talent in the draft.

righty8383
06-03-2012, 10:49 PM
My main concern about Giolito would be the Twins ruining him by going pitch to contact. .
Are you joking? Please tell me you're joking! If not, please give me one example of a flame throwing strike out pitcher who the Twins converted into a pitch to contact pitcher. Just one! The Twins have too many pitch to contact guys, this cannot be denied. but the idea that they take power strike out pitchers and TURN THEM into contact pitchers in proposterous. So just stop with this crap PLEASE!

TwinsTakes-RD
06-03-2012, 11:08 PM
I hope to God the Twins don't draft a pitcher because they "need" pitching! Take the best player available especially at #2!

Does it matter if they take a college pitcher? Even if they are really good, it's still probably at least two years before they see the majors and by then the Twins will be a different team. Odds are they will still need some pitching but that will also mean they've seen two more years of all the current prospects and some of them could be ready for the Majors by then.

Is it harder to adjust a pitcher's mechanics if he's been pitching for 3-4 more years, a college pitcher compared to a high school pitcher? Can the Twins do more with them if they get them when they are younger? Do we want the Twins to make a pitcher into a Twins pitcher or is the only way to get a power pitcher to draft them?

I'd rather they pick Buxton or Correa.

TwinsTakes-RD
06-03-2012, 11:13 PM
Do we want the Twins to make a pitcher into a Twins pitcher or is the only way to get a power pitcher to draft them?

Maybe I should've said "Do we think the Twins can change a pitcher?"

I think the Twins just want them to throw strikes! The whole "pitch to contact" concept has been blown out of proportion. THROW STRIKES! Get ahead in the count! If you do, then go for the strikeout but don't be afraid of throwing in the zone! How can any pitcher not already know that?

nokomismod
06-03-2012, 11:24 PM
Why not the catcher, Zunino? We will need help at that position soon, and if none of these pitchers jump out, then why waste a number 2 pick?

PMKI
06-03-2012, 11:42 PM
None of the arms this year jump out as anything close to the Bauer types we saw last year, the Twins will have plenty of chances to draft arms with all there comp picks and high 2nd round pick. At this point you gotta go with Buxton IMO, and we should feel lucky as most people view him as the overall top talent in the draft.

Kevin Goldstein was asked where he would rank a healthy Lucas Giolito in last years draft and he said "Top 5, and that's probably light". I am really starting to wish that the Twins would take a chance on him but I am fine with whatever they do.

kyleb_82
06-03-2012, 11:53 PM
Why not the catcher, Zunino? We will need help at that position soon, and if none of these pitchers jump out, then why waste a number 2 pick?

The reason being many people feel Correa and Buxton have more potential than Zunino. I'm not sure that the Twins feel that way, but I'm guessing they do since Zunino's name hasn't been mentioned much lately and has slid the past few weeks. One of the concerns with Zunino is last year and now this year his hitting has slid toward the end of the season. That may be a flag.

But who knows? Any of the 8 or so players we all have mentioned could turn out to be the best player this draft. Many of these decisions are almost splitting hairs and personal preference. There is some luck to it, no doubt.

I hope the Twins get lucky :)

SpiritofVodkaDave
06-04-2012, 12:08 AM
The reason being many people feel Correa and Buxton have more potential than Zunino. I'm not sure that the Twins feel that way, but I'm guessing they do since Zunino's name hasn't been mentioned much lately and has slid the past few weeks. One of the concerns with Zunino is last year and now this year his hitting has slid toward the end of the season. That may be a flag.

But who knows? Any of the 8 or so players we all have mentioned could turn out to be the best player this draft. Many of these decisions are almost splitting hairs and personal preference. There is some luck to it, no doubt.

I hope the Twins get lucky :)

Zunio is a nice talent no doubt, but it is clear there are about 4-5 superior options at #2 instead of him. The only reasonable reason they could take him at #2 is the ability to sign him below slot, however I don't think the #2 pick is the place to get cute, especially when you have a talent like Buxton available.

Riverbrian
06-04-2012, 12:14 AM
It is a futile endeavor to try to compare Buxton to Hicks. Buxton has significantly more upside and a better skill set then Hicks did coming out of HS.

I understand how everyone wants to find some Ace pitcher ASAP because the Twins currently lack in SP, but in the draft you always draft for talent this high and not for need, especially since the majority of these players won't even be big parts of your major league club for 3+ years. Heck even our minor league OF depth has taken a big hit this year, the only top OF prospect pulling his weight is Arcia. Hicks/Benson/Morales etc all have looked less than stellar (and thats being nice!)

None of the arms this year jump out as anything close to the Bauer types we saw last year, the Twins will have plenty of chances to draft arms with all there comp picks and high 2nd round pick. At this point you gotta go with Buxton IMO, and we should feel lucky as most people view him as the overall top talent in the draft.

I was about 22 when I made my first trip to Vegas. I had about 1,000 bucks with me and I was ready to try it all. I checked into the hotel, dropped my bags off in my room... Said "here I am" and rode the elevator down to the lobby.

To make a long story shorter... I went back to my room 45 minutes later with 30 bucks in my hand. Although the escort named Samantha that I hung around with was very nice and she felt sorry for me.

The next day I had enough of the gambling thing and decided to sightsee. I didn't want to see no damn dam. So I got in the car and drove a ways to check out Death Valley arriving around noon with 30 bucks in hand.

To make a long story shorter... I took a wrong turn and my car overheated. I had driven past a ranger station 4 or 5 miles back and decided to walk back that direction.

To make a long story shorter... There were animal skulls and mesquite everywhere and you have to understand that the creosote bush starts to look the same after awhile and I got turned around and headed the wrong direction. It must have been around 3PM when I collapsed. My skin was blistering, I was crawling toward mirages, my breathing was getting shallower and my mouth was so dry that my tongue was stuck to the roof of my mouth. I had to pry it loose with my fingers. My thirst was so great that I stuck my face into the sand and tried to drink it.

To make a long story shorter... I could feel myself drifting in and out of consciousness. Just when I thought my end had come. Some guy named Gary from Lone Pine California pulled up on a dirt bike. It was actually a regular bike but after riding through the desert... It got dirty and became a dirt bike. Gary asked if he could lend a hand and I begged him for water. He whipped out a cantine and said 15 bucks and it's yours. As I reached for the money. Gary went on to show me something else. Authentic passes good for 72 holes of golf at Augusta National and he was charging 30 dollars for them.

To make a long story shorter... I'm no fool. I gave him 30 bucks and off Gary went. As I laid there drinking more sand, I stared at those passes, someday I would meet the challenge of Amen Corner.

Bark's Lounge
06-04-2012, 12:43 AM
i was about 22 when i made my first trip to vegas. I had about 1,000 bucks with me and i was ready to try it all. I checked into the hotel, dropped my bags off in my room... Said "here i am" and rode the elevator down to the lobby.

To make a long story shorter... I went back to my room 45 minutes later with 30 bucks in my hand. Although the escort named samantha that i hung around with was very nice and she felt sorry for me.

The next day i had enough of the gambling thing and decided to sightsee. I didn't want to see no damn dam. So i got in the car and drove a ways to check out death valley arriving around noon with 30 bucks in hand.

To make a long story shorter... I took a wrong turn and my car overheated. I had driven past a ranger station 4 or 5 miles back and decided to walk back that direction.

To make a long story shorter... There were animal skulls and mesquite everywhere and you have to understand that the creosote bush starts to look the same after awhile and i got turned around and headed the wrong direction. It must have been around 3pm when i collapsed. My skin was blistering, i was crawling toward mirages, my breathing was getting shallower and my mouth was so dry that my tongue was stuck to the roof of my mouth. I had to pry it loose with my fingers. My thirst was so great that i stuck my face into the sand and tried to drink it.

To make a long story shorter... I could feel myself drifting in and out of consciousness. Just when i thought my end had come. Some guy named gary from lone pine california pulled up on a dirt bike. It was actually a regular bike but after riding through the desert... It got dirty and became a dirt bike. Gary asked if he could lend a hand and i begged him for water. He whipped out a cantine and said 15 bucks and it's yours. As i reached for the money. Gary went on to show me something else. Authentic passes good for 72 holes of golf at augusta national and he was charging 30 dollars for them.

To make a long story shorter... I'm no fool. I gave him 30 bucks and off gary went. As i laid there drinking more sand, i stared at those passes, someday i would meet the challenge of amen corner.

awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:d