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View Full Version : Article: Finding A Home For Justin Morneau



John Bonnes
05-28-2012, 10:46 PM
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?592-Finding-A-Home-For-Justin-Morneau

jorgenswest
05-28-2012, 11:06 PM
What is the impact of Morneau's no trade clause?

Given his contract and health, I would think most of us would be disappointed with the return we will get for Morneau. I would expect one B prospect and one or two other less significant prospects. The Twins could improve the level of return by taking on some of the salary risk. I would prefer the health and contract risk of keeping him.

With both Morneau and Span, the Twins need to play hardball. If they are not traded, I see it as a positive sign that the Twins are only going to trade away one of their few assets if they are blown away by the deal. Let's not expect that kind of offer will present itself.

Highabove
05-28-2012, 11:13 PM
Nothing under an A prospect, and even then, the Pohlad's will take a big public relations hit.
There are a couple of B prospects playing at Midway Stadium, and they can be had for free.

jorgenswest
05-28-2012, 11:16 PM
Nothing under an A prospect,

I agree. I just don't think it is reasonable to expect that offer. Let's keep him instead.

glunn
05-28-2012, 11:20 PM
It seems to me that if they trade him, it should be for an A level prospect, even if the Twins have to pick up some salary. It's time to start acting like a mid-market level team and spending some dollars on rebuilding.

Seth Stohs
05-28-2012, 11:29 PM
I'd add Texas to the mix. They need a 1B. I think that's a good place for Span too. They need a leadoff hitter and a CF.

I agree that people will be disappointed by how much the Twins could get for Morneau at this point. I odn't know about A prospects, but if not an A, there needs to be 3-4 Bs (that the scouts/TR think can become an impact player). There's just so much risk with keeping Morneau.

twinswon1991
05-29-2012, 06:28 AM
Unless the Twins eat nearly all of his salary I doubt the Twins are offered anything more than a few low minors type players. Morneau's risk and lack of ability to hit lefty's make him only a decent option for these teams.

The Orioles picked up Chris Davis for basically nothing when his salary was basically zero and I feel that Davis is a good comp for Mornaeu talent wise at this point. Both have bad platoon splits, play decent 1B and have good power. Davis has better positional flexibility (3B) and age is on his side. Again, I don't see Morny bringing much in return.

JB_Iowa
05-29-2012, 07:11 AM
I have always felt that Morneau was the "heart and soul" of this team -- much more so than Mauer. But as far as I am concerned there is not a single player who is off the trading blocks.

The Twins should be entertaining all offers on every player. And if there are deals that can be worked (taking no trade clauses into account) that will improve the future of this team, then they need to be made. I continue to wait for the Twins to demonstrate that they have a plan that will not only return this team to contention in the Central but will make them realistic contenders in the post-season.

kirbyelway
05-29-2012, 07:18 AM
St Louis is number 1, they will gamble on an injury plagued proven star. I am convinced they will make a run at him since they lost Berkman.

Han Joelo
05-29-2012, 08:05 AM
I also feel that Morneau is the heart and soul of the current team. I don't care if his stats are comparable to Chris Davis--the gut tells me the team is far better when he is in the lineup. Unless he is on fire and brings back a true prospect, I'd hate to see him go.

Having said that, for some reason St. Louis seems like the place.

jimbo92107
05-29-2012, 08:16 AM
Don't trade Morneau. Already Cuddy is gone, and this team needs a leader.

kirbyelway
05-29-2012, 08:21 AM
I truly feel Morneau is back and still has a few great years ahead of him. Minnesota is not going to contend in those years, so we need to hope his next 2 months are huge and we will get a good return for him if we trade. St Louis has gambled on Berkman, Beltran and Furcal, so for them to gamble on Morneau is not a reach. He is my favorite Twin and I would love to see him shine on a contending team!

Top Gun
05-29-2012, 08:34 AM
According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, "folks" think Roy Oswalt will decide on a team this week.

We're assuming those "folks" are baseball folks. The Rangers are considered the favorite to sign the veteran right-hander, but the Orioles, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers have also been mentioned as possibilities. Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reported Sunday that he's looking for a prorated $7.5 million contract.

TheTwins better get in the bidding if they want to save some face and there jobs!

Yoshii
05-29-2012, 09:04 AM
Why would we trade Morneau? Look at all his production this week alone, and the fans love him so much. Im sure he will be healthy forever now too.

I am almost crying at the thought of him in another uniform.

Boom Boom
05-29-2012, 09:21 AM
According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, "folks" think Roy Oswalt will decide on a team this week.

We're assuming those "folks" are baseball folks. The Rangers are considered the favorite to sign the veteran right-hander, but the Orioles, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers have also been mentioned as possibilities. Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reported Sunday that he's looking for a prorated $7.5 million contract.

TheTwins better get in the bidding if they want to save some face and there jobs!

Save face? What's the point of spending $7.5 million to turn a 100 loss team into a 95 loss team?

Not to mention that the Twins, if they were even interested, would likely have to pony up more dough than any of those other teams because of the teams you've listed they're the least desirable destination. Just say NO to Oswalt.

jmlease1
05-29-2012, 09:24 AM
I'd add Texas to the mix. They need a 1B. I think that's a good place for Span too. They need a leadoff hitter and a CF.

I agree that people will be disappointed by how much the Twins could get for Morneau at this point. I odn't know about A prospects, but if not an A, there needs to be 3-4 Bs (that the scouts/TR think can become an impact player). There's just so much risk with keeping Morneau.

It's a tough move to deal Morneau. His injury history will keep teams from making a big offer on him, even if he stays healthy and keeps slugging. He's a fan-favorite and draw at the ballpark and if healthy his contract is reasonable. His value just hasn't come back enough yet for me to advocate trading him. Parmelee feel back to earth, so it's not like we have a built-in replacement. (Sorry, sports fans, I refuse to get on the "Joe Mauer will move to 1B" bandwagon, for several reasons. 1) Mauer is a great catcher. 2) Mauer wants to play catcher, and Gardy will play guys where they want to play. 3) If Mauer moves to our primary 1B, Butera will become our regular catcher, which will be very ugly once his OPS comes back down to earth. Eesh.)

Now, if a team comes at us with a big offer, it'd be hard to say no. But I don't think we'll get that big offer. I think it's more likely we'll get low-balled as teams hope we'll just dump salary in a losing year and sell low on a former MVP. I don't want to see Justin go. But I'd do it for the right price. But it'd better be for the right price, not just any price.

gunnarthor
05-29-2012, 09:29 AM
I don't think we can trade Morneau this year. The payoff wouldn't be that great with questions about his health and the contract still lingering. He'd be more valuable next year, if we aren't in contention (but we will be, of course!). Willingham could be worth something this year, though.

LegendOfTheArctic
05-29-2012, 09:29 AM
Interesting list. I definitely view Toronto as a trade partner, and they have some solid young starting pitching prospects. I think the Rangers would be a good idea as well. They're definitely a contender, and 1B has been their only weakness.

As for Cleveland, I know the Twins are sometimes willing to trade within the division, but would they really trade one of their stars to a rival? Anyway, Cleveland sent all their good pitching prospects to Colorado last year, so the Twins wouldn't get much in Return.

Like the previous commenter, I'd be sad to see Morneau leave, but it would be stupid to hang onto him. I just hope the Twins get good prospects in return.

Top Gun
05-29-2012, 09:33 AM
We have already let Nate, Young, Kubel, Cuddyer, ect, go. We better not let anyone else go or we won't have a team!

cr9617
05-29-2012, 09:56 AM
Don't trade Morneau. Already Cuddy is gone, and this team needs a leader.

A team leader isn't all that valuable when you lose 100+ games.

mike wants wins
05-29-2012, 10:01 AM
Morneau might be my favorite player. I like watching doubles and the potential for home runs in my hitters, it's entertaining to me. But, if you can get legit prospect(s) for him, you have to consider it, do it. This team is not likely to contend next year, frankly. Not unless they go out and sign 3+ players in FA that are legit MLB starters. So, at that point, everyone should be available for the right price.

chaderic20
05-29-2012, 10:08 AM
I'd add Texas to the mix. They need a 1B. I think that's a good place for Span too. They need a leadoff hitter and a CF.

I agree that people will be disappointed by how much the Twins could get for Morneau at this point. I odn't know about A prospects, but if not an A, there needs to be 3-4 Bs (that the scouts/TR think can become an impact player). There's just so much risk with keeping Morneau.

Seth, what do you think Texas would be willing to give up in return for BOTH Morneau and Span, if they were packaged together? What do they have for prospects?

Thrylos
05-29-2012, 10:22 AM
I'd add Philly in the list as well. Another team that might be also interested in Span and got plenty of good MLB-ready young pitching to deal.

whydidnt
05-29-2012, 11:31 AM
Uggh, what's the hurry to deal Morneau, he has little trade value right now because of the injuries. So why trade a potential MVP type player for questionable prospects. You know the Twins aren't going to take the $14 Mil and invest in a quality starter if he's not around. I say the best thing to do is to see how he performs the rest of the season and then make a decision. I hate to see them let him go as they have NO ONE anywhere near ready to come up and replace him and his offense. Just because it's a lost year, doesn't mean you throw away guys that could be decent assets for nothing. If they got offered a Texiera like deal, I'd have no problem with trading him, but that's not going to happen. Trading a potential MVP type player for a B level prospect just doesn't interest me. We know Morneau has risks, but so does a B level prospect, with the prospect probably being a bigger risk to ever produce a the ML level. I'd rather have Morneau here than another 20+ million in the Pohlad's pockets.

StormJH1
05-29-2012, 11:55 AM
The swings in perspective on Morneau are so dramatic I can't even keep track. At the start of the year, it was widely assumed by many that he (a) was banished to DH for the remainder of his career; (b) might try and play 5-10 games before realizing his concussion symptoms came back and hung it up for good; or (c) was healthy enough to stay in the lineup, but his focus and timing had been so affected by the concussion problems that he wouldn't be any good anymore.

Morneau had a slow start, hit two homeruns in New York, then he sucked for another week or so before missing May 1st through 15th due to one of his OTHER injuries. Not the head, not the neck, but the wrist. And, of course, he's been mostly terrific since coming back to the lineup, and is also playing regular first base. But it's been two weeks. And as much as I love Morneau as a player, I'm just skeptical that the rest of the league loves him enough to go from "this guy's done" to "hey, we should TRADE for this guy's contract" in a period of just a few weeks.

The concussion concerns are never going away. The next time he has one, he's basically done, a fact which Morneau has bascially acknowledged. Morneau couldn't even finish 162-game seasons BEFORE his concussion problems resurfaced in 2010, and he has a laundry list of other nagging issues that could still pop up at any time. He's clearly still capable of being a terrific player when everything is right, but how often will that be? I think even in a realistic deal, the returns for Morneau will appear disappointing to a fan base that still values this guy as a "star" player, and the de facto "leader" of this team. I don't think it makes sense to trade him simply because we don't have much else to trade and we're supposed to be rebuilding. I'm just not sure that the returns for Morneau would actually be better than the potential of keeping him and possibly having a productive player for a few more seasons, even if intermittently.

Jeremy Nygaard
05-29-2012, 12:05 PM
I guess I don't buy the "can't get an A-list prospect" for Morneau. It was only a couple of years ago that the Indians were able to get Carlos Santana for 34-year-old Casey Blake because they helped cover the rest of Blake's contract. The Twins could stand to pay the remainder (or most) of his contract and get an A-list prospect in return, in my opinion.

The part this is at least equally as concerning as the concussions, is that he's had various other ailments almost consistantly since 2009. On the other hand, though, he was on an MVP pace that year too. If he can stay healthy for another month and a half, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Morneau is the most sought-after player at the deadline. MOST NL teams (which isn't the ideal destination) have issues at 1B. Quick, who's the best NL first basemen not named Joey Votto? (Look it up, it's scarier than I thought!)

nicksaviking
05-29-2012, 12:59 PM
If he proves he's healthy until the trade deadline Morneau would bring back a better return than many people are predicting here. John listed the Pirates, Blue Jays, Marlins, Indians and Mets as possible suitors and others in this thread have mentioned the Cardinals, Rangers, Phillies and I'd throw in the Dodgers with their new ownership, poor 1B play and division lead.

It's all about supply and demand. There is a ton of demand for a power hitting firstbaseman and very little supply. If multiple teams are interested, odds are the Twins are going to get a fantastic offer from one of them. If he can show he can stay healthy, he is definately a player that could put a contending team over the hump, and that is what teams are actually paying for.

Top Gun
05-29-2012, 01:12 PM
Give up and trade your team away. You are whips! What kind of product are you going to put on the field when all the vets are gone? A bunch of AAA kids that can't hold there own.

USAFChief
05-29-2012, 01:14 PM
I remain skeptical about the Twins dealing Morneau. That said, were he to remain healthy and productive into July, he would likely be the highest impact bat on the market, and IMO the fact he's signed reasonably thru next year makes him worth more, not less.

Were he healthy and on the market, the Twins should, and could expect a very attractive return.

IdahoPilgrim
05-29-2012, 01:29 PM
I agree with those who say we should hold out for an A-prospect, and if that doesn't materialize we should hang on to him. Is there risk? Of course, but there's risk in every decision you make. I have not been a big Morneau fan this year; he's just been too inconsistent - spurts where the old Justin is back, and spurts where he looks anemic at the plate. But if he can get on a tear and regain even 80% of his former form, he provides more value by playing than by anything we can get back in trade, unless that includes someone already or soon-to-be MLB quality.

CDog
05-29-2012, 02:35 PM
Morneau couldn't even finish 162-game seasons BEFORE his concussion problems resurfaced in 2010...

Is that the same Morneau who played 477 games over three consecutive seasons including a 163-games-played year?

Jack Torse
05-29-2012, 05:35 PM
B prospects? How many of those did they get for Santana? Much better off waiting for him to put distance behind his injuries and continue to hit for power. It he continues on that track in respect to both he will be in incredible demand at some point.

John Bonnes
05-29-2012, 08:20 PM
Lots of opinions here. Thanks. The one take away that I am taking is that there are certainly teams that could use him and could afford him. That makes this more of a topic than I thought it was 48 hours ago.

jorgenswest
05-29-2012, 10:51 PM
I guess I don't buy the "can't get an A-list prospect" for Morneau. It was only a couple of years ago that the Indians were able to get Carlos Santana for 34-year-old Casey Blake because they helped cover the rest of Blake's contract. The Twins could stand to pay the remainder (or most) of his contract and get an A-list prospect in return, in my opinion.

The trade was in 2008. You might have included that Baseball America ranked Carlos Santana as the Dodger's (not MLB's) 25th ranked prospect entering 2008. By the trade, he was midway through a breakout season as a 22 year old in A-Ball. Entering 2010, Santana was the Baseball America's #10 MLB prospect but he had been an Indian for one and a half years.

In this case, I would agree that the Twins can get an organization's 25th best prospect entering this season for Morneau. Let's hope they choose as well as the Indians.

Purple Domino
05-30-2012, 09:22 AM
I'd add Texas to the mix. They need a 1B. I think that's a good place for Span too. They need a leadoff hitter and a CF.

I agree that people will be disappointed by how much the Twins could get for Morneau at this point. I odn't know about A prospects, but if not an A, there needs to be 3-4 Bs (that the scouts/TR think can become an impact player). There's just so much risk with keeping Morneau.

As much as I dont want to see Morneau go, all the Twins do is NOT trade guys...and then we bitch about it when the rumored prospects we could have had, dominate. Ellsbury, Lester, etc etc. The fact of the matter is this: Morneau HEALTHY at $14m dosent make us a playoff team. Neither does a bunch of crap prospects that would free up money. If i had to chose one of the two for the future, prospects is the way to go and more payroll space.

The other options are to wait until next year and let Morneau become more of an asset. Of course, some team may whore themselves out come July and make an offer that is worth it, in which case...you take it. But he longer the Twins wait, the more desparate THEY become, and other teams take advantage...ie Santana.

Trade Span, trade Morneau and trade Willingham (if the price is right, because I do like him as a RH in our lineup if we some how become competitive in the next 2 years....but still, if he's got value...stock up.

With tenderness,
Purple Domino (@Purple_Domino)
WhatWouldBudDo.com