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Cody Christie
05-21-2012, 08:36 AM
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?564-Twins-should-go-all-in-on-Greinke

Thrylos
05-21-2012, 08:55 AM
Pavano earns $9.0 million, and Marquis signed this past offseason for $3.0 million. If you add all of those up with the $6.5 million lost on Scott Baker this year, the Twins will have quite the chunk of change to spend on pitching for 2013.

Yes. but I don't think they should spend it all in one place :) I think that Greinke has one exceptional season in the AL and a couple of above average seasons. His NL numbers are better but that is NL. Again: Only a single All Star season, only a single season in which he got votes for Cy Young (yes he won it that season.) But just a season. He is not Santana or Sabathia or Pedro. Not even close. And he will get CJ Wilson money. Someone will give him a 7 year 150 mil contract, and I hope it's not the Twins. (Pretty sure they will not be actually and thankfully.)

Boom Boom
05-21-2012, 09:02 AM
I like Grienke, and the Twins also like Grienke. If they were one good pitcher away, like they were in 2007-2010, I'd say go for it. But they're not that close to competing.

Shane Wahl
05-21-2012, 09:02 AM
Greinke is getting 5 years minimum ($90 minimum) and probably 6 years and $110 million. And that's crazy. The Twins are more likely to go after a 2 or 3 year deal, as well they probably should.

gunnarthor
05-21-2012, 09:12 AM
Grienke will get paid a lot of money. Both fangraphs and MLBtraderumors have had posts up pointing to Cain's extension as starting points for both Hamels and Grienke. I don't think Grienke gets quite that much but it'll be close. Anibal Sanchez is another pitcher I'd like the Twins to go after. I think he'll be a bit cheaper than Grienke.

mike wants wins
05-21-2012, 09:16 AM
If you never pay market rates (salary or years), you never get great players. Pretty simple rule of supply and demand, really. I don't care which very good to great pitcher it is, but I'd like one of them signed here. I don't think, for one minute, that Ryan will do it though. They'll continue on the Pavano/Marquis track, imo. So, I'm setting my expectatons super, super, super low for next offseason.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
05-21-2012, 09:17 AM
"Liriano makes $5.5 million, Pavano earns $9.0 million, and Marquis signed this past offseason for $3.0 million. If you add all of those up with the $6.5 million lost on Scott Baker this year, the Twins will have quite the chunk of change to spend on pitching for 2013."

You can also add $4.75 from Capps and with that the Twins have just over 28 million to spend. I really only see two major holes on the roster at 3B and SP. Greinke and A. Sanchez are the most attractive options available at SP and no potential free agents at 3B look like an upgrade (except Polanco who has a mutual option). I think going after a star pitcher makes a lot of sense for the Twins and they need to sign someone to get the fans excited for next season. The Twins have a lot of money coming off the books in 2013 (Morneau/14mil+Nishioka/3mil+Carroll/3.75m=$20.75mil) too so overspending now isn't terrible, especially if it's a 3-4 year contract.

jmlease1
05-21-2012, 09:43 AM
I would prefer the Twins go big on Grienke and sign a modest FA for the back of the rotation then split the money more evenly on 2 starters with less ability, just this once. Why? Because I think the Twins can actually sign Grienke, who has elite ability, which won't happen too often. I think he'd look at the Twins and see a lot of things that would make it an attractive place to play for him (ballpark, market, team concepts, etc.) and I suspect that will be more important to him than anything else.

A rotation of Grienke, Gibson, Diamond, Blackburn, and Free Agent X with Hendricks/Walters/Swarzak/Duensing as the alternatives for if/when someone fails would be a nice base to work from.

Thrylos
05-21-2012, 09:47 AM
I really only see two major holes on the roster at 3B and SP.

So the Twins are a SP and a third baseman away from being WS champions in 2013? Competing for the division? or for getting to .500?

As is, the Twins are about 3-4 SPs away, 2-3 pen arms away and 4-5 position players (RF, 2B, 3B, 1B, DH for starters) away from having an elite team and about half as much for having a competitive team. Doumit is gone after next season.

It is not just an arm and a bat that would turn this team around...

Shane Wahl
05-21-2012, 09:50 AM
I would argue that Ryan Dempster and Randy Wolf are the two most likely for the Twins to sign, and neither will garner more than 3 years (likely 2). They could probably get both for about $23 million a year for two years.

Boom Boom
05-21-2012, 10:02 AM
So the Twins are a SP and a third baseman away from being WS champions in 2013? Competing for the division? or for getting to .500?

As is, the Twins are about 3-4 SPs away, 2-3 pen arms away and 4-5 position players (RF, 2B, 3B, 1B, DH for starters) away from having an elite team and about half as much for having a competitive team. Doumit is gone after next season.

It is not just an arm and a bat that would turn this team around...


This is my point - signing Grienke would be one of those "put you over the top" moves that the Twins were so hesitant to make while they were a very good team. It would have made a lot of sense a couple years ago. But the Twins need to commit to rebuilding now, and handing out big contracts at this point would be a mistake.

nicksaviking
05-21-2012, 10:20 AM
Unless people think the Twins will be able to win without an ace, the only way to get one is by trade or free agency and the Twins don't have a whole lot to trade any longer. The Twins only drafted and developed a true ace two times in their history, and none since Frank Viola. Next year may not be the ideal time to spend on an ace as the team is still a couple years away, but front end starters are becoming more and more rare on the free agent market as teams are becoming wiser about extending young arms. They could pass and hope to get a big arm in 2014, but hoping Tim Lincicum, Josh Johnson or Johan Santana all make it to free agency and are still healthy may be more of a long shot.

ashburyjohn
05-21-2012, 10:29 AM
Doumit is gone after next season.

A small point: Doumit is signed only through this season, according to both Cot's Contracts (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=80) and baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml)

Steve Penz
05-21-2012, 10:32 AM
If you never pay market rates (salary or years), you never get great players. Pretty simple rule of supply and demand, really. I don't care which very good to great pitcher it is, but I'd like one of them signed here. I don't think, for one minute, that Ryan will do it though. They'll continue on the Pavano/Marquis track, imo. So, I'm setting my expectatons super, super, super low for next offseason.

I wish I did not agree. We need to roll the dice and overpay. I hope they do this for Greinke or another. He is 28. I think it might be worth it.

jeffk
05-21-2012, 10:34 AM
If you never pay market rates (salary or years), you never get great players. Pretty simple rule of supply and demand, really. I don't care which very good to great pitcher it is, but I'd like one of them signed here.

The Twins have no rotation to speak of. It would be a much better value for them to try to pick up several average starters than one great one. Otherwise it will be just like this year 4/5 days.

mike wants wins
05-21-2012, 10:56 AM
You have to pay market rates for average pitchers too. Will any be available? Will they sign two of them? That was really the point of the post.

wolf eyes
05-21-2012, 11:14 AM
This would be a horrible use of money. Even if he adds 10 wins, that probably isn't enough to get this team to the playoffs. The Twins should not be inking any massive, multi-year contracts until they're actually in a position to compete, i.e. hopefully when some of their prospects in the lower leagues have developed.

Siehbiscuit
05-21-2012, 11:16 AM
The Twins have a few talented arms in the minors that can be up next year or by at least 2014. Guys like Benson, Wimmers, Hendricks, possibly Appel and we have Diamond. All of these guys will cost the Twins less than a million dollars for at least the first three years of service. Grienke (18M), Benson (600K) and Diamond (600K) as a top 3 and maybe Hendricks, Wimmers or Appel can take the last two spots. If the Twins want a veteran go and get an inexpensive veteran that can be a clubhouse leader as Grienke has been known to be more of a recluse. Get a top end starter, because the depth coming up is at best filled with one number 2 starter and a bunch of 3's, 4's and 5's. An investment in a long-term solution at 3B should be explored as well, because Sano will be up in 2014 and he will not be at 3B for long.

wolf eyes
05-21-2012, 11:20 AM
The Twins have a few talented arms in the minors that can be up next year or by at least 2014. Guys like Benson, Wimmers, Hendricks, possibly Appel and we have Diamond. All of these guys will cost the Twins less than a million dollars for at least the first three years of service. Grienke (18M), Benson (600K) and Diamond (600K) as a top 3 and maybe Hendricks, Wimmers or Appel can take the last two spots. If the Twins want a veteran go and get an inexpensive veteran that can be a clubhouse leader as Grienke has been known to be more of a recluse. Get a top end starter, because the depth coming up is at best filled with one number 2 starter and a bunch of 3's, 4's and 5's. An investment in a long-term solution at 3B should be explored as well, because Sano will be up in 2014 and he will not be at 3B for long.

Benson is an outfielder.

Thrylos
05-21-2012, 11:51 AM
Benson is an outfielder.

I think he means Gibson. Who is actually doing pretty well with his rehab. I think that the Twins will probably need a couple more younger arms for next season or 2014, in addition to Gibson, Wimmers, Hendriks, Hermsen and they can get at least one by trading Span who by 2014 will probably not be in the plans, this season.

ScottyB
05-21-2012, 11:57 AM
You have to pay market rates for average pitchers too. Will any be available? Will they sign two of them? That was really the point of the post.

Let's face facts - this is the real world. The Twins will not go after Greinke, they have never gone after a free-agent starting pitcher of significance who wasn't their own (i.e. Pavano - who was acquired in a trade originally) except in the case of Morris, and then they were 1 pitcher away from a title, and he was a hometown lad.

Looking at next year's available starting pitchers (by MLB Trade Rumors list), potential $4-$6 million guys who might be decent include Eric Bedard ($4.5M), Joe Saunders ($6M), Brandon McCarthy ($4.275M), Kevin Correia ($4M), or Colby Lewis ($4M). Forget about any guys in the $10M-$12M range and it's pipe dreams to think about Grienke, who would hamstring them even more to go with Mauer's $23M contract.

cr9617
05-21-2012, 12:00 PM
Let's face facts - this is the real world. The Twins will not go after Greinke, they have never gone after a free-agent starting pitcher of significance who wasn't their own (i.e. Pavano - who was acquired in a trade originally) except in the case of Morris, and then they were 1 pitcher away from a title, and he was a hometown lad.

Looking at next year's available starting pitchers (by MLB Trade Rumors list), potential $4-$6 million guys who might be decent include Eric Bedard ($4.5M), Joe Saunders ($6M), Brandon McCarthy ($4.275M), Kevin Correia ($4M), or Colby Lewis ($4M). Forget about any guys in the $10M-$12M range and it's pipe dreams to think about Grienke, who would hamstring them even more to go with Mauer's $23M contract.

Sad but true..

YourHouseIsMyHouse
05-21-2012, 12:31 PM
So the Twins are a SP and a third baseman away from being WS champions in 2013? Competing for the division? or for getting to .500?

As is, the Twins are about 3-4 SPs away, 2-3 pen arms away and 4-5 position players (RF, 2B, 3B, 1B, DH for starters) away from having an elite team and about half as much for having a competitive team. Doumit is gone after next season.

It is not just an arm and a bat that would turn this team around...

I'm really saying that I'm satisfied outside of those two positions. SP is a hole, but it is a gaping one. The Twins are about 4 good SP and a decent 3B away from contention for the Central. They would need a lot more star power to reach a WS. It's not just a bat and an arm (like you said), it's several arms and a bat.

mike wants wins
05-21-2012, 12:58 PM
So, the argument from some is to not spend serious money next year. How many years of Mauer's prime are you willing to burn, not being competitive?

Thrylos
05-21-2012, 01:17 PM
So, the argument from some is to not spend serious money next year. How many years of Mauer's prime are you willing to burn, not being competitive?

I think that they can be competitive next season and they do need to spend some money but they got to spend them smart. And they got to trade everyone they can trade this season who is making more than the minimum (with the exception of Glen Perkins) and or is over 28, to get SP help. Span, Doumit, Pavano, Casilla, Valencia, Blackburn, Capps, Carroll, Morneau etc the list is long. Some of them will bring nothing but some of them do have trade value. Get 2-3 good young arms in, free about $40-50M to spend in 2013 smartly (i.e. not $15-20M/season on a single player) and you got the makings for a contender in 2013.

But of course you got to deal with the biggest issues of this organization, like the front office, the manager and the coaches before you build a team.

USAFChief
05-21-2012, 01:20 PM
This is my point - signing Grienke would be one of those "put you over the top" moves that the Twins were so hesitant to make while they were a very good team. It would have made a lot of sense a couple years ago. But the Twins need to commit to rebuilding now, and handing out big contracts at this point would be a mistake.

Grienke will get a multi yr deal, so won't he still be around when all the "rebuilding" comes to fruition?

You rebuild by dumping below average players and accumulating above average ones. Some of them have to come from the minors--your own system or someone else's--but not all of them. One of the beauties of young players is that they don't cost much, allowing you to pay more for others. The Twins do not have the pitching in the system to build a rotation capable of winning the central, much less a WS. Those pitchers have to come from somewhere, and these next two drafts will hopefully help, but they represent two lottery tickets.

The Twins, like other smart teams, need to build using every available resource. Skipping free agency is short sighted and cheap, i think the owners can afford it, and if not frankly I don't much care if the Pohlads don't pocket a huge profit every year anyway.

If a team this clearly in need of starting pitching isn't interested in doing what it takes to help itself, why should I as a fan continue to invest my time, money and emotions?

Shane Wahl
05-21-2012, 01:31 PM
I think that they can be competitive next season and they do need to spend some money but they got to spend them smart. And they got to trade everyone they can trade this season who is making more than the minimum (with the exception of Glen Perkins) and or is over 28, to get SP help. Span, Doumit, Pavano, Casilla, Valencia, Blackburn, Capps, Carroll, Morneau etc the list is long. Some of them will bring nothing but some of them do have trade value. Get 2-3 good young arms in, free about $40-50M to spend in 2013 smartly (i.e. not $15-20M/season on a single player) and you got the makings for a contender in 2013.

But of course you got to deal with the biggest issues of this organization, like the front office, the manager and the coaches before you build a team.

Pretty much, yes. Doumit, Capps, and Pavano are almost sure to be traded (three prospects total?). Span too, I guess. Morneau and Blackburn have contracts that won't be wanted at all. Carroll will be retained for next year. Casilla and Valencia I want to do well for two months to be traded, yes. Maybe the Twins get 5 prospects out of this.

CDog
05-21-2012, 01:31 PM
Let's face facts - they have never gone after a free-agent starting pitcher of significance who wasn't their own (i.e. Pavano - who was acquired in a trade originally) except in the case of Morris, and then they were 1 pitcher away from a title, and he was a hometown lad.

It may not change your main point, but as far as facts go...the '91 Twins were not exactly a recent contender that was just 1 pitcher away from a title. They were a last place team (in a 7-team division even) that added a bunch of pieces and had a couple others take huge leaps in their early careers. Which makes the Morris signing stand out as out of the ordinary even more, I think.

Boom Boom
05-21-2012, 01:36 PM
Grienke will get a multi yr deal, so won't he still be around when all the "rebuilding" comes to fruition?

You rebuild by dumping below average players and accumulating above average ones. Some of them have to come from the minors--your own system or someone else's--but not all of them. One of the beauties of young players is that they don't cost much, allowing you to pay more for others. The Twins do not have the pitching in the system to build a rotation capable of winning the central, much less a WS. Those pitchers have to come from somewhere, and these next two drafts will hopefully help, but they represent two lottery tickets.

The Twins, like other smart teams, need to build using every available resource. Skipping free agency is short sighted and cheap, i think the owners can afford it, and if not frankly I don't much care if the Pohlads don't pocket a huge profit every year anyway.

If a team this clearly in need of starting pitching isn't interested in doing what it takes to help itself, why should I as a fan continue to invest my time, money and emotions?

They haven't done much to address the SP in the last five years, and it seems like you're still emotionally invested anyway. :)

I get where you're coming from, but I just don't believe that Grienke himself is the answer. Going "all-in" will require the Twins to sign more players than just Grienke. If they did that, I'd be happy about it, but I also don't want them to throw money at big-time free agents when they're a bad team and become the Seattle Mariners, who are still a bad team and have to ride out bad contracts that keep them from rebuilding properly.

Shaun in Chicago
05-21-2012, 02:34 PM
Butera would be a fairly cheap option for the rotation, right?

SirLoin
05-21-2012, 04:01 PM
While it would certainly make things interesting to go after a true ace like Grienke, I don't think it makes a lot of sense considering the state the Twins are in right now. As it stands, the Twins have basically no rotation whatsoever. Diamond has been a nice story, but he still has a lot to prove. Walters is nothing more than a stopgap, and any legitimate pitching prospects we have are facing or are currently in the process of rehabbing injuries. The fact is the Twins need to build a rotation from the ground up next season, and it looks like they might have the money to do just that. They need a rotation that can produce quality starts on a consistent basis so the offense isn't always behind the proverbial 8-ball game in and game out. That way, they ought to be able to win some of those ballgames next year that they are losing this year, thus building themselves into a contender that an ace might find attractive. I'd say the short list of free agent pitchers ought to include, in no particular order:

Joe Blanton
Joe Saunders
Brandon McCarthy
Paul Maholm (If his $6.5M club option isn't picked up)
Erik Bedard
Shaun Marcum (If they want to go high end)
Kevin Millwood (Token old guy for the back of the rotation)

Based on this list, an overhauled Twins rotation should look like this going into next season:

Erik Bedard/Shaun Marcum
Joe Blanton/Joe Saunders/Brandon McCarthy
Kevin Millwood
Scott Diamond
PJ Walters/Jeff Manship/Cole DeVries (Basically a place holder until June for Kyle Gibson)

one_eyed_jack
05-21-2012, 04:13 PM
I'm in favor of spending money to improve, but agree with those who say there are too many holes to fill for it to make sense to go all in on one guy.

Especially when going all in on that guy will mean locking him in for a lot of money for a lot of years.

After all of the recent complaining about how Mauer's contract supposedly hamstrings the team, it's a bit odd to see advocacy for signing up for another long-term huge money deal.

The Twins are a long way off from being a powerhouse, but if they were able to upgrade their pitching from horrendous to mediocre and add another decent bat to the lineup, that would be enough for them to compete for the division.

bdhenders
05-21-2012, 04:13 PM
While it would certainly make things interesting to go after a true ace like Grienke, I don't think it makes a lot of sense considering the state the Twins are in right now. As it stands, the Twins have basically no rotation whatsoever. Diamond has been a nice story, but he still has a lot to prove. Walters is nothing more than a stopgap, and any legitimate pitching prospects we have are facing or are currently in the process of rehabbing injuries. The fact is the Twins need to build a rotation from the ground up next season, and it looks like they might have the money to do just that. They need a rotation that can produce quality starts on a consistent basis so the offense isn't always behind the proverbial 8-ball game in and game out. That way, they ought to be able to win some of those ballgames next year that they are losing this year, thus building themselves into a contender that an ace might find attractive. I'd say the short list of free agent pitchers ought to include, in no particular order:

Joe Blanton
Joe Saunders
Brandon McCarthy
Paul Maholm (If his $6.5M club option isn't picked up)
Erik Bedard
Shaun Marcum (If they want to go high end)
Kevin Millwood (Token old guy for the back of the rotation)

Based on this list, an overhauled Twins rotation should look like this going into next season:

Erik Bedard/Shaun Marcum
Joe Blanton/Joe Saunders/Brandon McCarthy
Kevin Millwood
Scott Diamond
PJ Walters/Jeff Manship/Cole DeVries (Basically a place holder until June for Kyle Gibson)

Why is everyone penciling Diamond into next years rotation? He's had 3 good games, but I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch? 3 games is a very small sample size. I hope he keeps it going, since he's the only one giving the Twins a decent chance of winning right now, but I wouldn't count on him being in the rotation next year. He's a late 20's journeyman that hasn't stuck in the majors in his career yet.

If you think Greinke can give you 5 good years, it might make sense to sign him, but it's a huge risk and I don't think the Twins will do it. We need to get some good pitching prospects for Denard Span (2 number 2/3 starters) since he's the only tradeable commodity right now. If you want to sign starting pitching, it will cost you, but I do agree with the sentiment that they've got a bigger payroll to work with now, so it might make some sense. The SP has been horrible, and they're going to have to sign someone eventually. It probably won't be until they show that they have a chance at being competitive, though.

Just keep winning 4 out of every 5 games and maybe it could happen;-)

SirLoin
05-21-2012, 04:26 PM
Why is everyone penciling Diamond into next years rotation?

We need to get some good pitching prospects for Denard Span (2 number 2/3 starters) since he's the only tradeable commodity right now.

As far as Diamond goes, who else can we pencil in from an internal standpoint? He could also potentially be that 5th starter holding Gibson's spot until he's ready. Especially if they are able to trade Span for a prospect who is major-league ready. Which is not a bad way to go either.

twinstalker
05-21-2012, 04:44 PM
The Twins and I (because I matter) are scared to sign pitchers long-term. I think Baker/Blackburn is the last straw for that notion. Secondly, I think the Twins are a long way (and a long pitching way) from seriously competing.

That being said, if the Twins were to spend on a pitcher who would be around if the Twins suddenly started making good personnel decisions and began winning, I think they could do a LOT worse than Greinke.

CDog
05-21-2012, 04:44 PM
Why is everyone penciling Diamond into next years rotation? He's a late 20's journeyman that hasn't stuck in the majors in his career yet.


25 is late 20's?

twinzgrl
05-21-2012, 04:46 PM
I keep hearing the Nationals want Span. Do they have a pitcher we could get from them that would be a #2 type guy?

snepp
05-21-2012, 05:10 PM
He's a late 20's journeyman that hasn't stuck in the majors in his career yet.

That's a grossly inaccurate representation. I'd love to see you defend it though, should make for quality theatre.

Shane Wahl
05-21-2012, 05:14 PM
I keep hearing the Nationals want Span. Do they have a pitcher we could get from them that would be a #2 type guy?

I would much rather keep Span and spend some money on 1-2 free agent starters in the offseason than trade their leadoff player for a pitching prospect.

darin617
05-21-2012, 05:50 PM
I would argue that Ryan Dempster and Randy Wolf are the two most likely for the Twins to sign, and neither will garner more than 3 years (likely 2). They could probably get both for about $23 million a year for two years.

I would like to see Tim Hudson if Atlanta doesn't pick up his option for next year. Sad thing is the Twins would have more interest in a former teammate of Hudson's... That would Barry Zito. I can already see Terry Ryan throwing a multi-year deal at him instead.

darin617
05-21-2012, 05:58 PM
So, the argument from some is to not spend serious money next year. How many years of Mauer's prime are you willing to burn, not being competitive?

So when do Mauer's prime years start?

Jack Torse
05-21-2012, 06:05 PM
While they're at it they should make a push for Hamilton too. I love the idea and I think he has great stuff but nothing in the Twins DNA would suggest they will even pay 5 million for a free agent pitcher this off season. This team wouldn't even get Cliff Lee for a couple prospects when they had a team that was very good in 2010. Afterall, where would they be without Aaron Hicks? This orginazation makes money 1st, and if they have a good team that just a bonus. You've been hoodwinked if you believe otherwise.

USAFChief
05-21-2012, 06:20 PM
I'm in favor of spending money to improve, but agree with those who say there are too many holes to fill for it to make sense to go all in on one guy.

Especially when going all in on that guy will mean locking him in for a lot of money for a lot of years.

After all of the recent complaining about how Mauer's contract supposedly hamstrings the team, it's a bit odd to see advocacy for signing up for another long-term huge money deal.

The Twins are a long way off from being a powerhouse, but if they were able to upgrade their pitching from horrendous to mediocre and add another decent bat to the lineup, that would be enough for them to compete for the division.

1. I guess I don't agree that signing Grienke represents "going all in." The Twins can spend more money than they're currently spending, and Grienke costs nothing but money. He doesn't cost you prospects going away for a half season rent-a-player, nor stripping of the farm to acquire MLB players in the offseason.

2. It might not work out, but spending money is one way to acquire talent. It can't be the only way, but shying away from difference makers who cost nothing but money isn't good strategy either.

3. You don't upgrade the horrendous pitching by adding more horrendous, but cheap, pitchers.

4. Not exactly sure what "compete for the division" means, but if the goal is to have an outside chance of finishing closer to first than last in the ALC, then yeah, there's no need to sign front line pitchers. If the goals are higher, you need players capable of achieveing that.

I'm not sure Grienke is really what might be called an "ace," but he's a front line pitcher, and the Twins are going to need front line pitching at some point no matter what happens with any other part of the team.

one_eyed_jack
05-21-2012, 10:10 PM
1. I guess I don't agree that signing Grienke represents "going all in." The Twins can spend more money than they're currently spending, and Grienke costs nothing but money. He doesn't cost you prospects going away for a half season rent-a-player, nor stripping of the farm to acquire MLB players in the offseason.

2. It might not work out, but spending money is one way to acquire talent. It can't be the only way, but shying away from difference makers who cost nothing but money isn't good strategy either.

3. You don't upgrade the horrendous pitching by adding more horrendous, but cheap, pitchers.

4. Not exactly sure what "compete for the division" means, but if the goal is to have an outside chance of finishing closer to first than last in the ALC, then yeah, there's no need to sign front line pitchers. If the goals are higher, you need players capable of achieveing that.

I'm not sure Grienke is really what might be called an "ace," but he's a front line pitcher, and the Twins are going to need front line pitching at some point no matter what happens with any other part of the team.


1) The phrase "go all in" was the article author's not mine. And I took it to mean that the Twins spend whatever it takes to get him. I'm not opposed to having Greinke on the Twins, but I am opposed to spending what it will take to get him on one guy.

2) I said I'm in favor of spending money, just not all in 1 place.

3) Who said anything about signing horrendous pitchers? It's not like all pitchers who aren't Greinke are just other versions of Marquis. There's some middle ground there.

4) By compete for the division, I mean be able to hang in the race most of the year with a reasonable chance to win it. If the Twins had gotten mediocre as opposed to horrendous starting pitching and a bit more offense this year they'd be right there. I figure we'd have 6 or 7 more wins had we gotten halfway decent starting pitching and a couple of more clutch hits. That would have put us right in the mix in what is a very weak division. No, it wouldn't make us a legit World Series contender, but we'd at least be playing meaningful baseball in August, possibly later. And that would make it a more attractive destination for free agent like Greinke.

jorgenswest
05-21-2012, 10:16 PM
Why would any significant free agent sign with the Twins? I can't see any reason why a player would sign with a team that has so many needs and so little hope for 2013. They have to rebuild the hard way.

The only way the Twins will sign anyone is to overpay so significantly that it couldn't be anything but a bad contract in the long run.

We see comments like this all the time.

Recently... Why didn't the Twins take the money they spent on Capps, Marquis and Zumaya and spend it on Edwin Jackson (who signed an 11 million dollar contract with Washington)?

How can anyone assume that was ever a choice? Given the two options, Jackson would choose Washington every time. Why choose a Twins team coming off a horrible season and a historically bad infield defense? Jackson not only needed to consider this year, but contracts in the future. They would have had to pay much more than Washington to get him.

Signing significant free agents will not be an option for bottom feeders like the Twins. They have to dig their way out with smart player development.

CDog
05-21-2012, 10:39 PM
This team wouldn't even get Cliff Lee for a couple prospects when they had a team that was very good in 2010. Afterall, where would they be without Aaron Hicks? This orginazation makes money 1st, and if they have a good team that just a bonus. You've been hoodwinked if you believe otherwise.

Like being hoodwinked by rumors and assuming that the Twins could have had Cliff Lee for a couple of prospects? Or being hoodwinked by one's own twisted logic that winning and profit are unrelated?

CDog
05-21-2012, 10:44 PM
Recently... Why didn't the Twins take the money they spent on Capps, Marquis and Zumaya and spend it on Edwin Jackson (who signed an 11 million dollar contract with Washington)?


Umm...cuz of addition and the fact that either Edwin Jackson, his agent, or both are capable of it?

YourHouseIsMyHouse
05-22-2012, 09:36 AM
I've always thought Paul Maholm would be a perfect fit for the Twins and I would be a little surprised if his option was picked up. His 5.5 K/9 and 1.416 career WHIP are really unattractive though.

bdhenders
05-22-2012, 09:56 AM
That's a grossly inaccurate representation. I'd love to see you defend it though, should make for quality theatre.

Looking at fangraphs for Scott Diamond, I see that you are correct. I was just going off memory and was underestimating Diamond. I thought he was older. This does make me feel a little better about him (and the Twins managment for trading Billy Bullock to keep him...which I didn't like).

The point still goes that the best way to get starting pitching without costing you an arm and a leg is to trade Span for AA arms that might become 2/3 starters. I don't think you can get an ace for him, but obviously that would be nice, too. Do you guys have any thoughts on who they could get for Span?

CDog
05-22-2012, 10:08 AM
Do you guys have any thoughts on who they could get for Span?

There is/are (more than?) one thread devoted entirely to this topic. Not too far back if you go to the Forum category and then Twins Talk, you should be able to find lots o' opinions on that.

jorgenswest
05-22-2012, 10:43 PM
Most recent comp is the trade of Michael Bourn last year. The Braves did not have to trade any of their pitching prospects to get him. They sent Jordan Shafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and Juan Abreau to Houston.

Span currently ranks 12th in WAR among centerfielders and could help some teams. However, I don't know if they should expect any more than the Astros received for Bourn who has been a better player over the last two years.

Look at the trades over the last few summers. I don't see many #2-3 pitching prospects changing hands. Last year they were included in trades for Ubaldo Jimenez, Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran.

Fortunately the Twins are in a good position with Span. Worst case, they keep him unless someone comes in a blows them away.

jokin
05-23-2012, 10:44 PM
I'm in favor of spending money to improve, but agree with those who say there are too many holes to fill for it to make sense to go all in on one guy.

Especially when going all in on that guy will mean locking him in for a lot of money for a lot of years.

After all of the recent complaining about how Mauer's contract supposedly hamstrings the team, it's a bit odd to see advocacy for signing up for another long-term huge money deal.

The Twins are a long way off from being a powerhouse, but if they were able to upgrade their pitching from horrendous to mediocre and add another decent bat to the lineup, that would be enough for them to compete for the division.

That sounds an awful lot like the scenario I proposed to you on another thread...:rolleyes:

I think it's obvious now, even to Twins managment, that long-term contracts are not the way to go. As much as Greinke would fit into Gardenhire's perfect player profile in the locker room (Greinke has been diagnosed with SAD- Social Anxiety Disorder), it would be a foolish move to put even more money at risk on a long-term basis. My proposal for signing some combination of 1st, 2nd & 3rd tier proven starting arms for short-term deals is the way to go until the farm system/draft delivers on some combination of Waldrip/Gibson/Wimmers/(Appel or Gausman) and/or a key (#3-5) starter/pitching prospect(s) acquired by trade for Span/Willingham/Doumit/etc.

Ultima Ratio
05-23-2012, 11:49 PM
If I were GM, I wouldn't go beyond 3 years on FA contracts except under unique and momentous conditions. I believe the chances of seriously courting Greinke are quite remote, and I don't think it would be money well spent. I'd rather they go after 2 #2s or 3 #3s at SP next year. We are not one ace away from competing and succeeding the playoffs.

Career ERA of my potential 2013 Pick-ups (all for 2 or 3 year contracts) I like to see 2 or 3 signed -- I know, it's just a wish, reasonable though I think.

All the following are definite FA, without a club option remaining for 2013

Brandon McCarthy 4.06
Joe Blanton 4.30
Jeremy Guthrie 4.24
Colby Lewis Last 2 years: 3.70, 4.42 and so far this year 3.30
Anibal Sanchez 3.61
Joe Saunders 4.13

Guys that would be nice but probably out of reach: Shaun Marcum and Cole Hammels