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View Full Version : Cafardo: Denard Span remains on Nationals' radar.



Parker Hageman
05-06-2012, 12:53 PM
According to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo (http://bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/05/06/mariano-rivera-injury-throws-curve-east-teams/M2za9aJsAUMRcb1BWssdML/story.html), the Washington Nationals still have interest in Twins' center fielder Denard Span, whom they had shown interest in a year ago.



He remains on Washington’s radar, but with Nationals closer Drew Storen on the DL, a deal is on hold for a while.



As I noted the first time around when the Span-for-Storen rumors cropped up, (1) I did not like the idea of trading a position player for a closer and (2) Storen's arm action (http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/07/finding-relief.html) led me to believe that he will eventually have elbow problems (eventually, by the way, became this spring and he still has yet to throw a pitch in 2012 (http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=5975&line=357827&spln=1)). I sincerely doubt (or at least hold out hope) that the Twins still are interested in that particular proposal.

Nonetheless, with the current record, focus will begin to slowly shift towards the future of this club. Obviously there will be a gaping need in the rotation and some critical positions (such as second base, third base, etc) will need to be addressed. Right now with Span hitting .308/.357/.383, playing solid defense in center and signed to a team-friendly contract, he appears to be the Twins' lone trading chip that can actually land the organization decent players. The Nationals have developed a good farm system (John Sickels at MinorLeagueBall.com (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/1/23/2728027/2012-baseball-farm-system-rankings-prospects) ranks them 13th overall) so there may be an opportunity to address some needs for 2013 and beyond.

What do you think? If the Twins current pace remains, do you move Denard Span and what do you want in return?

kmerfi
05-06-2012, 12:57 PM
I'm skeptical about this, because I doubt the Nationals are looking for another outfielder. They already have Jayson Werth and his massive contract out there, and then have Rick Ankiel, Roger Bernadina, Xavier Nady and now Bryce Harper out there, as well. Unless they move some of their outfielders, I think it'd be hard for that to happen.

gunnarthor
05-06-2012, 12:58 PM
I just posted this elsewhere but the Twins should get a Pence-like deal for Span (4 prospects, 2 top 50). I'm not sure the Nats have what we need (a lot of their best prospects are hurt and/or within a year of being drafted). I think we'd be better off looking elsewhere. A good CFer, LH, high on-base guy with a team friendly contract should be something nearly every team should want. I think teams like the Giants (Angel Pagan leading off in CF) or the Reds (Stubbs have been a bust) could really use Span since they both seem to be in win now modes.

Parker Hageman
05-06-2012, 01:09 PM
I doubt the Nationals are looking for another outfielder

From what I understand, they are targeting Span more as a lead-off hitter. After all, they are using Ian Desmond, who has a .295 OBP, as their lead off guy right now.

JeffB
05-06-2012, 01:15 PM
But isn't Span a piece of the near-future since he's affordable and a known quantity? There's no guarantee Benson, Hicks, Plouffe, Tosoni are locks for starting OF.

mike wants wins
05-06-2012, 01:17 PM
Philly and Texas have better pitching in the minors, don't they?

DJSim22
05-06-2012, 01:38 PM
Without a doubt, Span is the main trading piece, and I would be disappointed in TR if he did not trade him before the trade deadline. The sooner, the better imo. I like Span, think he's a very good lead off hitter, but we need more pieces to the puzzle and trading him likely improves the team as a whole. TR has to try it.

greengoblinrulz
05-06-2012, 03:55 PM
Most of us have focused on the name Drew Storen as he was the name mentioned last yr. This yr, he's obviously out.
I dont even open up the discussions with WASH w/o Jordan Zimmerman being the guy coming back. 26 yr old RHP, already had TJ surgery (YEAH) & throws over 93mph. He's got 4 yrs (counting this yr) till FA and would immediatley become our ace. This would also allow Ben Revere to step right into CF & not have to worry about a followup concussion.

Shane Wahl
05-06-2012, 04:07 PM
I might be interested if the Twins would subsequently move Joe Mauer to the leadoff spot.

cr9617
05-06-2012, 05:26 PM
But isn't Span a piece of the near-future since he's affordable and a known quantity? There's no guarantee Benson, Hicks, Plouffe, Tosoni are locks for starting OF.

The Twins could lose 90-100 games with or without Span. I would hate to see him go but, if he can return a quality starter or more, you gotta make that move. If you can't pitch, you cant' win...

davidjcampbell
05-06-2012, 05:36 PM
The Twins could lose 90-100 games with or without Span. I would hate to see him go but, if he can return a quality starter or more, you gotta make that move. If you can't pitch, you cant' win...

According to fangraphs, his WAR in 2011 was 2.2, so far this year it is 0.7 - to me that is replaceable on this team. He has value, the Twins should use that value to get new guys in the system.

I am in favor of a move that will get us a number of actual prospects to move Span this year. The team doesn't need bodies that will fill up the AA and AAA rosters for the next 4-5 years - the Twins need guys who will be able to produce "at the major league level."

jorgenswest
05-06-2012, 05:57 PM
Span's WAR ranks him 13th among centerfielders this year. He would be a real upgrade to a few competing teams, but the Twins need to play hardball. He is an asset and will be an asset next year. They can replace his defense with Revere but not his lead off ability. Revere does not get on base enough. I don't see another lead off hitter in the system close to ready for next year. They also have him under a reasonable contract.

Rosterman
05-06-2012, 06:05 PM
Span is a lead-off hitter. He plays centerfield. He has a reasonable contract that will only sky-rocket in a couple of years.

He has had health problems, he is replacable in the long-term, his value right now is fairly high, doubt that it could get higher.

The question is what pieces (not a piece) can you get for him and why would another team do this.

glunn
05-06-2012, 07:52 PM
The question is what pieces (not a piece) can you get for him and why would another team do this.

The ideal match would be a contender that needs a good centerfielder and who has a surplus of decent starters in its system. I would be happy to get a top rated AAA starter who is young and who strikes people out, plus one or two AA or A level starters who have decent upside. Would this be asking for too much?

jorgenswest
05-06-2012, 08:12 PM
The Twins can ask for a top level starter prospect, but I don't think it is reasonable.

The Astros received 4 players for Michael Bourn. This was written last year in analysis of the deal.

"The Great Astros Purge of '11 continues with Atlanta's thieving Bourn for Jordan Schafer and three prospects. None of the four project as anything more than mediocre big-league regulars. Bourn, in the meantime, is among the game's three best defensive center fielders and is primed to lead the league in steals for the third consecutive season."

I would think Bourn had more value than Span when traded last year.

YourHouseIsMyHouse
05-06-2012, 08:18 PM
Denard Span is the living embodiment of what the Twins are (*coughs*) were for the past decade. It may be a good move, maybe even a smart move, but I pray that Terry Ryan doesn't pull the trigger. He's a great person, an EXCELLENT table setter offensively, and has the intangibles on defense. For as much as I hate the Nationals, I couldn't bear to see him in a red #2 (Unless they want to give us Strasburg haha).

Bark's Lounge
05-06-2012, 10:29 PM
The Twins are at a disadvantage. I cannot see any real contenders who would pursue Span that would give us an advantageous return. I like Span, I think he can be part of the solution. He is the sure bet. Our minor leagues, while highly rated, are unproven and utmostly a crap shoot. Also, Span can play all OF positions more than effectively. A trade I would propose, but is unrealistic would be this: Span, Wimmers, Guerra for Shelby Miller and Jon Jay of the Cardinals.

Shane Wahl
05-06-2012, 10:33 PM
Span's WAR ranks him 13th among centerfielders this year. He would be a real upgrade to a few competing teams, but the Twins need to play hardball. He is an asset and will be an asset next year. They can replace his defense with Revere but not his lead off ability. Revere does not get on base enough. I don't see another lead off hitter in the system close to ready for next year. They also have him under a reasonable contract.

OH MY GOD, finally someone agrees with me about this.

spideyo
05-06-2012, 10:40 PM
If we're still way below .500 ball a month or two from now, it makes sense to trade Span, but only if we get some guys who are ready to be MLB starters at the absolute latest by next year.

Bark's Lounge
05-06-2012, 10:49 PM
TOur minor leagues, while highly rated, are unproven and utmostly a crap shoot.

What I meant to say: "Our minor league outfielders, while highly rated, are unproven and at utmost a crap shoot"

one_eyed_jack
05-06-2012, 11:10 PM
I'm open to the idea of trading Span, but it had better be for some quality talent in return. Otherwise, we should just hold onto him.

Also, there should not be any rush to make a move, and I would have to think that the Nationals would not be our only or even our best trading partner on this.

I'm don't buy into this idea that we have to deal him now because he's our most tradeable asset, we need to shake things up, and he's replaceable. I am not so dismissive of what Span brings to the table. He's a legit leadoff hitter and solid defensive centerfielder with a team-friendly contract.

He can be moved, but it has to be a move to help the Twins either now or down the road, not just for the sake of making a move.

Bark's Lounge
05-06-2012, 11:19 PM
"SUBSTANTIAL" needs to be and is the Key Word!

CDog
05-06-2012, 11:23 PM
According to fangraphs, his WAR in 2011 was 2.2, so far this year it is 0.7 - to me that is replaceable on this team.

Not sure if you're considering the fact that that was in 70 games last year and 26 this year. If not, it certainly is a big thing to consider. Those both project to around 4.5 wins for a full season.

Top Gun
05-06-2012, 11:42 PM
Updating a previous item, Jayson Werth has been diagnosed with a broken left wrist.

Werth will visit with a specialist Monday, but is expected to miss ''at least six weeks,'' according to Nationals manager Davey Johnson. His absence creates a need in the outfield, and all but ensures Bryce Harper will avoid being sent down. Tyler Moore likely stands to benefit in the short-term, though the Nationals could also look outside the organization for depth.


Source: Amanda Comak on Twitter (http://twitter.com/#!/acomak/status/199337089224028161)

Shane Wahl
05-06-2012, 11:51 PM
Good grief, trading any number of your very best players away is not something a team looking to rebuild should do. At all. Instead, the idea would have to be to package lesser players who might still be interesting to other teams but who annoy yours (Danny Valencia, Alexi Casilla, Matt Capps, Anthony Swarzak) with notable prospects (Ben Revere, Oswaldo Arcia, Angel Morales, Carlos Gutierrez, BJ Hermsen, Corey Williams, etc.) to get good value in a couple of trades (in this case, for starting pitching and maybe 3rd base).

Shane Wahl
05-06-2012, 11:55 PM
For instance, are there really no possible good-great starting pitchers available for trade A: Danny Valencia, Anthony Swarzak, Oswaldo Arcia and BJ Hermsen, or trade B: Alexi Casilla, Matt Capps, Ben Revere and Carlos Gutierrez? The Twins have outfield and middle relief depth in the system. That's all the depth right now (though middle infield is changing for the better), but still.

gunnarthor
05-07-2012, 12:04 AM
Good grief, trading any number of your very best players away is not something a team looking to rebuild should do.

Actually, it sorta is. Knoblauch for Milton/Guzzy, AJ for Liriano/Nathan, Buchanan for Bartlett etc.

We're gonna lose a lot this season. Unless Morneau comes back from injury and comes back to his MVP self, our offense is gonna be bad and our pitching will remain very bad. Span is a great asset that could bring back potential impact players. No deal centered around Valencia, Swarzak and Arcia would. It's very likely that when we're good again, Hicks or Benson will be our best centerfielder.

meister
05-07-2012, 12:09 AM
Couple thoughts...
The Nations would love Denard Span to be their table-setting CF. Bernadina and Nady would be expendable to them if they had Span and they'd have no problem letting go of those strings. The Werth injury could spurn the Nat's to move more quickly, but there interest has to be very high regardless. The Nat's are adequate without Span, as Ankiel is decent enough and they are ok with Tyler Moore to get reps in place of Werth, but they would be far happier with Span.

Jordan Zimmerman is off the table... just forget about that. The Nat's have not and will not give up quality young pitching that is extremely useful in their current pennent drive... has any team ever done such a thing? One problem with the Nat's is the Gio Gonzalez trade... the A's took most of what the Twins would have wanted for Span, so there is not much left to pick from and like another poster mentioned, what is left may not be trade elligible until after this year's draft (although that 1 year rule has been known to be waived with a simple request).

Having said all that, I could see:
Span for Daniel Rosenabum & future considerations (Anthony Rendon)

Not the type of deal I'd usually see from the Nat's, but their M.O. has changed now that they think they can win now. IMO.

Shane Wahl
05-07-2012, 12:15 AM
Actually, it sorta is. Knoblauch for Milton/Guzzy, AJ for Liriano/Nathan, Buchanan for Bartlett etc.

We're gonna lose a lot this season. Unless Morneau comes back from injury and comes back to his MVP self, our offense is gonna be bad and our pitching will remain very bad. Span is a great asset that could bring back potential impact players. No deal centered around Valencia, Swarzak and Arcia would. It's very likely that when we're good again, Hicks or Benson will be our best centerfielder.

Knoblauch? You mean the most under-appreciated Twin in my lifetime (31 years) . . . for Milton and Guzman? No. Bartlett? No. Yes, there is a point with AJ there but that was not also a simple rebuild decision but rather a this-guy-doesn't-fit-with-Mauer coming soon decision.

A team has to rebuild around something. Span is a good leadoff hitter who plays good defense. That is NOT common in baseball. You don't give that up unless someone is clearly there to replace him. And no one is right now. MAYBE this is a discussion for next year. Maybe.

meister
05-07-2012, 12:16 AM
For instance, are there really no possible good-great starting pitchers available for trade A: Danny Valencia, Anthony Swarzak, Oswaldo Arcia and BJ Hermsen, or trade B: Alexi Casilla, Matt Capps, Ben Revere and Carlos Gutierrez? The Twins have outfield and middle relief depth in the system. That's all the depth right now (though middle infield is changing for the better), but still.

A. No, not for what we need, which is quality ballplayers for 2013 and beyond.

Capps could probably bring a low/medium level prospect or two, but packaging those mentioned just wouldn't be in anyone's interest. It would be great to keep Span, but being our top chip, you can't keep him AND get value coming back to us.

Shane Wahl
05-07-2012, 12:19 AM
And let's not forget that Pavano and Liriano are going to be worth something as pieces in some trade package. I do think that the Twins, if they are going to make trades, need to come up with such combinations of players according to prospect depth and MLB expendability (for the Twins). They cannot just trade away their top MLB players or multiple top prospects. They are not in a position to do that.

Shane Wahl
05-07-2012, 12:22 AM
A. No, not for what we need, which is quality ballplayers for 2013 and beyond.

Capps could probably bring a low/medium level prospect or two, but packaging those mentioned just wouldn't be in anyone's interest. It would be great to keep Span, but being our top chip, you can't keep him AND get value coming back to us.

This is just false. A team absolutely can trade a MLB player, a top prospect and one or two middle prospects for immediate or near-immediate value in return.

gunnarthor
05-07-2012, 12:24 AM
Knoblauch? You mean the most under-appreciated Twin in my lifetime (31 years) . . . for Milton and Guzman? No. Bartlett? No. Yes, there is a point with AJ there but that was not also a simple rebuild decision but rather a this-guy-doesn't-fit-with-Mauer coming soon decision.

A team has to rebuild around something. Span is a good leadoff hitter who plays good defense. That is NOT common in baseball. You don't give that up unless someone is clearly there to replace him. And no one is right now. MAYBE this is a discussion for next year. Maybe.

I'm not sure where to go with someone who thinks Buchanan/Bartlett swap was a bad move. In any event, you won't get anything valuable for the Danny Valencia's of the world. This team needs talent and they have a good piece to swap for future talent in Span. They should do it if there's a good offer out there.

gunnarthor
05-07-2012, 12:28 AM
This is just false. A team absolutely can trade a MLB player, a top prospect and one or two middle prospects for immediate or near-immediate value in return.

Flip this on its head - would you trade a healthy Kyle Gibson to the Cubs for Ian Stewart and Chris Volstad?

meister
05-07-2012, 12:28 AM
And let's not forget that Pavano and Liriano

Agreed, but only to a level similar to what Capps might bring. Those two, currently, would only fetch mid-level guys. Span really is our only chip. And if we're talking mid-level, Carroll is a mention as well... perhaps Lombardozzi is added to Rendon & Rosenabaum, while we add Carroll to Span? Just a thought.

frightwig
05-07-2012, 12:37 AM
He remains on Washington’s radar, but with Nationals closer Drew Storen on the DL, a deal is on hold for a while.

I don't think Span is untouchable, although his contract status makes him a nice asset to keep around. But, if Terry Ryan can swap him for a good prospect, that's fine. However, I don't understand why a deal would be on hold because Drew Storen is hurt.

Say you're the GM of a last place team. Your team was lousy last year, too. You need to start rebuilding soon. Right now, your starting rotation is a trainwreck; but at least four SP's on the roster have expiring contracts and shouldn't be back next year, which is good but also leaves you with a lot of holes to fill. At the same time, most of your lineup sucks, as well. You really, really could use upgrades at every spot but Catcher, Leftfield, and Centerfield; even if your constantly injured former MVP at 1B/DH is healthy and productive again next year, you probably need a replacement for him in 2014, too. Unfortunately, your prospect crop in the high minors isn't very good, either. So maybe you're thinking about trading your Centerfielder for some rebuilding pieces, and the Nationals seem interested in him. OK, fine.

Why would the plan to trade your CF depend upon the health and availability of the Nats' closer? How does Drew Storen solve any of Terry Ryan's biggest problems?

glunn
05-07-2012, 01:10 AM
Why would the plan to trade your CF depend upon the health and availability of the Nats' closer? How does Drew Storen solve any of Terry Ryan's biggest problems?

I agree. But maybe a three team trade could end up with Ryan getting a starting pitcher.


And let's not forget that Pavano and Liriano are going to be worth something as pieces in some trade package. I do think that the Twins, if they are going to make trades, need to come up with such combinations of players according to prospect depth and MLB expendability (for the Twins). They cannot just trade away their top MLB players or multiple top prospects.

I think that Shane makes an excellent point here, and if Marquis is pitching well, he might also have trade value.

Also, Benson and Hicks don't seem to be doing well enough in the minors to be ready to come up. On the other hand, Revere is a great fielder and is fun to watch.

Shane Wahl
05-07-2012, 01:45 AM
gunnarthor, you are being a bit difficult here. I am not actually proposing a trade, I am indicating the kind of trade of some sort that might work. I regard Span more highly then you do, clearly. And I don't want to trade someone who seems to have no in-house replacement for someone who may be comparable to pitchers on the FA market in the offseason. I don't want to trade Span for a prospect. I want the Twins to figure out either A: a way to spend 10-15 million bucks on at least one great starting pitcher for multiple years or B: a way to trade multiple players/pitchers for one good-great starting pitcher.

I also find the common assumption that Span is the best trade chip to be in no way clearly true. Different teams have different needs and it always changes. Danny Valencia and prospects isn't something to totally scoff at.

BeefMaster
05-07-2012, 08:37 AM
I also find the common assumption that Span is the best trade chip to be in no way clearly true. Different teams have different needs and it always changes. Danny Valencia and prospects isn't something to totally scoff at.

Valencia is pretty clearly not as valuable a player as Span. Yeah, he's a better fit for a team that needs a third baseman, but a team that's in contention (and likely to be the other end of a rebuild trade) isn't likely to have a third baseman who's clearly worse than Danny Valencia.

spideyo
05-07-2012, 09:09 AM
Valencia is pretty clearly not as valuable a player as Span. Yeah, he's a better fit for a team that needs a third baseman, but a team that's in contention (and likely to be the other end of a rebuild trade) isn't likely to have a third baseman who's clearly worse than Danny Valencia.

Will the A's be in contention in a few months? Cuz they have Inge and Hughes in the minors....

gunnarthor
05-07-2012, 09:15 AM
gunnarthor, you are being a bit difficult here. I am not actually proposing a trade, I am indicating the kind of trade of some sort that might work. I regard Span more highly then you do, clearly. And I don't want to trade someone who seems to have no in-house replacement for someone who may be comparable to pitchers on the FA market in the offseason. I don't want to trade Span for a prospect. I want the Twins to figure out either A: a way to spend 10-15 million bucks on at least one great starting pitcher for multiple years or B: a way to trade multiple players/pitchers for one good-great starting pitcher.

I also find the common assumption that Span is the best trade chip to be in no way clearly true. Different teams have different needs and it always changes. Danny Valencia and prospects isn't something to totally scoff at.

I think Span is great - I want a Pence like deal for him. Where we disagree is the idea that we can give away a platter of our bad players and low prospects for a good/great starter from another team. The Twins aren't going to get anything with a centerpiece being a thirdbaseman who can't field and posts an 82 OPS+ over the last two seasons. To get the type of starters we want, we'll have to surrender something valuable back. Last year at the trade deadline, we held onto Cuddyer who was in demand. The Mets decided to trade their FA OF, Carlos Beltran, to the Giants for pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. The Twins should've been doing something like that. Instead, we hung onto him, lost 99 games and got the 32 and 83 (I think) pick in this draft for him instead. And spent 21m on his replacement.

The team is far away. They'll need to spend money in free agency this offseason but that won't be enough. They need to get young talent that can come up and build around a new nucleus of talent. Span can get us several additional young pieces to build around. If the best offer you get for him is Drew Storen, then you hang onto Span. But if you can get a Pence-like deal, go for it.

chaderic20
05-07-2012, 10:41 AM
I completely agree with gunnarthor here. Too many people on this site seem to think that all the other GM's in the league are either stupid, gullible, or both. You can't in one breath say "Valencia sucks, we need someone better! And our high minor leagues suck, we need more talent!" And then in the next breath claim that we could package Valencia and our high minor leaguers to get something valuable. If those players aren't good enough for a team as bad as the Twins are right now, what makes you think that a team actually in contention would give up top-talent prospects in a trade for them? As I think some others have asked, would you take players like Valencia, et al, in return for a player like Span, or in return for a top ML-ready pitcher if we had one? No, you would laugh at any such trade proposal! And that's what any other GM in the league will do.

The Twins are not going to win this year, and probably not next year either. So yes, even though Span is one of our best players right now, he is exactly what we need to trade away. Another common complaint I see on here is that the Twins don't ever "trade high". And then again, on the other hand, I see people yelling and screaming when there's talk of trading players like Span. It doesn't make any sense to me! You can't have it both ways! As much as it sucks to see good players now get traded away, we don't have enough good players now to win. So we need to turn those good players now, into future good players by trading them for prospects.

As for the Nats situation, with Werth now breaking his wrist, they might be a little more willing to deal. No, we're not going to get Zimmerman (that's another problem with most people on this site, if they are willing to trade away good players like Span, they are completely unrealistic in what they expect to get in return). We MIGHT be able to get Gonzalez or Jackson. Hopefully the Twins don't trade for Storen or any closer as that's not our primary need and is such an unpredictable position.

Shane Wahl
05-07-2012, 11:04 AM
Agreeing with gunnarthor means that you are disagreeing with me and then characterize my view as someone who thinks lowly about the Twins prospects mentioned. That is false. One or two high level prospects and two middle level prospects were mentioned. And gunnarthor also claims that I mean low prospects. That is false. Words being put into my mouth and that is annoying as hell.

Packaging serviceable major league guys with prospects for value in return is not that crazy. Giving away your only leadoff guy and one of your three best overall hitters at age 28 for some pitching prospect is crazy.

gunnarthor
05-07-2012, 11:33 AM
Agreeing with gunnarthor means that you are disagreeing with me and then characterize my view as someone who thinks lowly about the Twins prospects mentioned. That is false. One or two high level prospects and two middle level prospects were mentioned. And gunnarthor also claims that I mean low prospects. That is false. Words being put into my mouth and that is annoying as hell.

Packaging serviceable major league guys with prospects for value in return is not that crazy. Giving away your only leadoff guy and one of your three best overall hitters at age 28 for some pitching prospect is crazy.

Look at recent real trades. Reds got Mat Latos and gave up Yonder Alonso (BA #33 prospect), Yasmani Grandal (BA #53 prospect), Brad Boxberger (Reds #10 prospect) and Edinson Volquez. Nats got Gio Gonzalez for AJ Cole (BA #57 prospect), Brad Peacock (BA #36 prospect), Derek Norris (former top 100 prospect, now A's #7) and Tommy Milone (now A's #10 prospect). So, the Twins don't have those type of deals to make to get a top flight pitcher. Instead, they should be the selling team and trading away Span for two top 50 prospects + two more team top 10 prospects. Span should get that kind of return.

Thrylos
05-07-2012, 12:56 PM
Recent developments with the Nats, including diagnosing Werth with a broken hand, increase the probability of a Span trade there. Article here (http://www.nbcwashington.com/blogs/capital-games/Werth-Breaks-Wrist-Adding-to-Nats-Woes-150415605.html). Also mentioned in the same piece is that the Nats have lost their closer and back up closer this season. And are in contention for the NL East. Wonder what Span and Capps might bring back. The problem is that all of their MLB-ready SP talent (othen than maybe Dan Rosenbaum who is in AA) is in the majors already.

Steve Lein
05-07-2012, 01:05 PM
Fact is, Denard Span is the only player on the Twins roster that will bring back anything of worthwhile future value in what should now be the Twins rebuilding plan. As mentioned, people complain about the Twins "selling low". Well, this would go away from that.

However, it's laughable to me that Drew Storen's name is still cited as a target. 1. he's hurt, and 2. We don't need a freakin' closer.

Jordan Zimmerman is a great name to throw around. I don't think the Nats would move him, but they also do have Strasburg and Gio Gonazalez atop their rotation already. Maybe you try to go Anthony Rendon (Ryan Zimmerman is a Nats cornerstone at 3B) and a pitching prospect or 2 (Matt Purke, Alex Meyer, Sammy Solis). The Hunter Pence return is a great trade to compare too on what we might hope to get back.

USAFChief
05-07-2012, 01:10 PM
Agreeing with gunnarthor means that you are disagreeing with me and then characterize my view as someone who thinks lowly about the Twins prospects mentioned. That is false. One or two high level prospects and two middle level prospects were mentioned. And gunnarthor also claims that I mean low prospects. That is false. Words being put into my mouth and that is annoying as hell.

Packaging serviceable major league guys with prospects for value in return is not that crazy. Giving away your only leadoff guy and one of your three best overall hitters at age 28 for some pitching prospect is crazy.

I don't think the Twins are in any position to be trading "one or two high level prospects." They need to be getting high level prospects. Nobody likes the thought of dealing Span but the reality of the situation dictates that might be necessary. As said above, you can't package enough crap together to hide the fact you're dealing crap.

Thrylos
05-07-2012, 01:14 PM
I don't think the Twins are in any position to be trading "one or two high level prospects." They need to be getting high level prospects. Nobody likes the thought of dealing Span but the reality of the situation dictates that might be necessary. As said above, you can't package enough crap together to hide the fact you're dealing crap.

They can deal high level prospects as long as they are outfielders :)

Revere, Benson, Hicks, A. Morales, Arcia are blocking each other. Add maybe Sano and Rosario to the mix and you got a mess that you need to get out of.

MileHighTwinsFan
05-07-2012, 01:29 PM
Jayson Werth just broke his wrist - increasing the urgency for the Nats to find a replacement. Would not be surprised that the Twins get a call today. Agree that the Twins need a ransom for him, but it is time for Twins to be honest about the next couple of years. While Span could be a part of the future - the one area of relative strength in the system is outfield. Revere could be a transition centerfielder with the hope that Benson makes the final step soon. The Twins do have a history of developing centerfielders and have to believe they can do it again. Remember both Torii and Denard were far from sure things and struggled mightily at first when they made the transition to the bigs.

gunnarthor
05-07-2012, 02:01 PM
I think the Twins would be better looking at other teams than the Nats. Giants have Angel Pagan leading off and playing CF. Reds are in win-now mode but Stubbs has been a disappointment. Marlins have been using Emilio Bonificio in center and in the two spot. Phillies, still in win-now mode, have an OF with Juan Pierre and Shane Victorino. Myjer Morgan's been a disaster in Milwaukee (although they might be sellers, not buyers). Flower's been bad in CF for Colorado, who could use some more range in their OF. Rays are losing Upton after this year and would allow Zobrist to move to second. Etc, etc.

The point is, nearly every team that thinks it's in a race could use Span. Finding a good deal for him should be possible.

jimbo92107
05-07-2012, 02:04 PM
...They already have Jayson Werth...

Well, not so much Werth anymore. Broken left wrist, same one he had troubles with in 2006. He's done for the year.

Still, Span is worth a lot more than a closer, which the Twins already have in Capps, who now has serious movement on his pitches. Twins also have Perkins. Why would they consider trading for someone else's injured closer?

How about Gio Gonzalez? See, there's nothing they have that they'll give away. If the Twins trade Span, it better be for at least a top starting pitcher prospect, like a Kyle Gibson with no arm problems.

jimbo92107
05-07-2012, 02:12 PM
I just posted this elsewhere but the Twins should get a Pence-like deal for Span (4 prospects, 2 top 50). I'm not sure the Nats have what we need (a lot of their best prospects are hurt and/or within a year of being drafted). I think we'd be better off looking elsewhere. A good CFer, LH, high on-base guy with a team friendly contract should be something nearly every team should want. I think teams like the Giants (Angel Pagan leading off in CF) or the Reds (Stubbs have been a bust) could really use Span since they both seem to be in win now modes.

Now that's more like it. Look for teams that collect good arms, like the Reds, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Braves, etc. At least one of them could use a top-three lead-off hitter averaging over .300, great range in CF, good base runner, and a smart, consistent player.

Wait a minute. Why are we trading him again??

James Richter
05-07-2012, 02:31 PM
Nobody should think about selling anything until the last 10 days of July. Anybody within 5 games of a playoff spot at that time can reasonably consider themselves a buyer. The addition of the 2nd Wild Card in each league will greatly expand those ranks. Had that extra berth been available on July 21st last summer, there would have been 18 buyers, 8 sellers, and 4 teams on the bubble (the Twins, at 6 GB, were one of the bubble teams, unfortunately). That's a huge seller's market. Whatever the Twins might get for Span now, I bet they'll get more in a couple months when 5 or 6 teams are bidding on him.

USAFChief
05-07-2012, 03:12 PM
They can deal high level prospects as long as they are outfielders :)

Revere, Benson, Hicks, A. Morales, Arcia are blocking each other. Add maybe Sano and Rosario to the mix and you got a mess that you need to get out of.

Nobody on your list is blocking anyone. The Twins have one open OF spot even if you don't deal Span. Only 2 on your list have reached AAA and neither is a lock to be a major league starter. Half your list is in A ball and not all are even outfielders. The Twins should not be dealing minor leaguers that have a chance until they know what they have.

tobynotjason
05-10-2012, 04:09 PM
This thread is funny.

Guys loudly proclaiming that a rebuild involves (wait for it...) the rebuilding team trading their prospects (and strangely alluring replacement level MLB talent) for actual MLB talent... presumably to win 73 instead of 65 games while eviscerating their future?

GMs around the league chomping at the bit to get their hands on Valencia, Casilla, etc.... Sure.

When you've resigned yourself to what is going on, here is the deal: rebuidling teams don't trade prospects unless they get a silly return back. Do the Twins have a bunch of OF prospects? Sure. Do they know which ones, if any, are going to work out? Absolutely not. So unless you are offered absolute blue chippers back in an area of need (middle infield, starting pitching) there's no point to moving them. Certainly not to add a few wins onto lost seasons.

Span is reasonably priced and signed through 2015. This is the reason NOT to keep him. Sure, MAYBE everything falls into place and the Twins compete in 2015. If things get incredibly crazy, 2014. You are still looking at a minimum of two and very probably three utterly lost seasons paying him for no reason.

Meanwhile, the fact that he is reasonably priced through 2015 means other teams that are competitive now will pay A LOT more for him now than they will a similar guy at the deadline in his contract year or one year removed. His reasonable contract and talent are exactly why he SHOULD be moved. Pay some salary if it brings back more/better prospects.

If Willingham gets hot again: ditto. Rebuilds are ugly at the MLB level. You can't afford luxuries when you're trying to go from "guaranteed to suck now" to "good chance of not sucking in the medium future." Which is what a rebuild is.

Riverbrian
05-12-2012, 01:05 PM
This thread is funny.

Guys loudly proclaiming that a rebuild involves (wait for it...) the rebuilding team trading their prospects (and strangely alluring replacement level MLB talent) for actual MLB talent... presumably to win 73 instead of 65 games while eviscerating their future?

GMs around the league chomping at the bit to get their hands on Valencia, Casilla, etc.... Sure.

When you've resigned yourself to what is going on, here is the deal: rebuidling teams don't trade prospects unless they get a silly return back. Do the Twins have a bunch of OF prospects? Sure. Do they know which ones, if any, are going to work out? Absolutely not. So unless you are offered absolute blue chippers back in an area of need (middle infield, starting pitching) there's no point to moving them. Certainly not to add a few wins onto lost seasons.

Span is reasonably priced and signed through 2015. This is the reason NOT to keep him. Sure, MAYBE everything falls into place and the Twins compete in 2015. If things get incredibly crazy, 2014. You are still looking at a minimum of two and very probably three utterly lost seasons paying him for no reason.

Meanwhile, the fact that he is reasonably priced through 2015 means other teams that are competitive now will pay A LOT more for him now than they will a similar guy at the deadline in his contract year or one year removed. His reasonable contract and talent are exactly why he SHOULD be moved. Pay some salary if it brings back more/better prospects.

If Willingham gets hot again: ditto. Rebuilds are ugly at the MLB level. You can't afford luxuries when you're trying to go from "guaranteed to suck now" to "good chance of not sucking in the medium future." Which is what a rebuild is.

Great post Toby!!!

Last year and this year may seem like the nightmare scenerio.

Let's be clear... The Nightmare scenerio is hanging on to the very few pieces of valued tradeable talent and surrounding them by rentals and lolli gaggers.

This type of thinking will delay the return to respectability. Try to imagine the Pirates for the past decade. Get Young Quick. Don't trade prospects... Acquire them... We may have OF depth in the LOW Minors right now but we won't have actual OF depth until it performs at the MLB Level. Let's lose for a couple of years and make sure the scouts are focused and the direction of the draft is clearly defined and followed.

Shane Wahl
05-12-2012, 02:08 PM
This thread is funny.

Guys loudly proclaiming that a rebuild involves (wait for it...) the rebuilding team trading their prospects (and strangely alluring replacement level MLB talent) for actual MLB talent... presumably to win 73 instead of 65 games while eviscerating their future?

GMs around the league chomping at the bit to get their hands on Valencia, Casilla, etc.... Sure.

When you've resigned yourself to what is going on, here is the deal: rebuidling teams don't trade prospects unless they get a silly return back. Do the Twins have a bunch of OF prospects? Sure. Do they know which ones, if any, are going to work out? Absolutely not. So unless you are offered absolute blue chippers back in an area of need (middle infield, starting pitching) there's no point to moving them. Certainly not to add a few wins onto lost seasons.

Span is reasonably priced and signed through 2015. This is the reason NOT to keep him. Sure, MAYBE everything falls into place and the Twins compete in 2015. If things get incredibly crazy, 2014. You are still looking at a minimum of two and very probably three utterly lost seasons paying him for no reason.

Meanwhile, the fact that he is reasonably priced through 2015 means other teams that are competitive now will pay A LOT more for him now than they will a similar guy at the deadline in his contract year or one year removed. His reasonable contract and talent are exactly why he SHOULD be moved. Pay some salary if it brings back more/better prospects.

If Willingham gets hot again: ditto. Rebuilds are ugly at the MLB level. You can't afford luxuries when you're trying to go from "guaranteed to suck now" to "good chance of not sucking in the medium future." Which is what a rebuild is.

A: Rebuilding through prospects alone (and Joe Mauer) is risky business. So,
B: One of the best rebuild-around veterans is the guy you would trade away for these prospects (pitching prospects, I would assume)
C: That veteran is not replaceable in any easy way with what is in-house already, both offensively and, apparently defensively given your question marks about the OF prospects in house.

So you would prefer to create a hole in the team that goes forward while adding pitching prospects.
I would rather not create that hole and add major league pitchers, rebuilding much through free agency, and yes, trying to trade players and prospects where there is depth (OF, middle relief). I never mentioned trading those players right now, but rather at the deadline. It is NOT impossible to imagine that players like Valencia, Casilla, Capps, and Doumit might be worth something to contending teams looking to add missing pieces.

Shane Wahl
05-12-2012, 02:14 PM
OF prospect or under 25 depth (FYI):

Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, Aaron Hicks, Evan Bigley, Oswaldo Arcia, Angel Morales, Danny Rams, Lance Ray, Danny Ortiz, JD Williams, Nate Roberts, Drew Leachman, Max Kepler, Dereck Rodriguez . . .

And perhaps Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Niko Goodrum if they don't stick in the infield.

roger
05-12-2012, 02:20 PM
Span's WAR ranks him 13th among centerfielders this year. He would be a real upgrade to a few competing teams, but the Twins need to play hardball. He is an asset and will be an asset next year. They can replace his defense with Revere but not his lead off ability. Revere does not get on base enough. I don't see another lead off hitter in the system close to ready for next year. They also have him under a reasonable contract.

If you follow what Revere is doing at Rochester this year, you will see that he is working on the little things that will make him a great leadoff hitter. He is bunting and taking more walks with a lot of stolen bases. He hasn't gotten a lot of time in AAA until this year and is working hard to become a solid major league player. Let him stay there for another couple months, then bring him up.

twinswon1991
05-12-2012, 02:23 PM
You guys are missing the point......Span really isn't worth much to any other team. He is an average to above average CF with zero power and only average speed. Most teams have a guy like this and really Roger Bernadina isn't that much worse than Span....definitely not worse enough for the Nats to give up anything more than a PJ Walters type for him.

The Twins are in a SAD, SAD state because they have no tradeable talent and no prospects. Wake me up in 2025!

Riverbrian
05-12-2012, 03:00 PM
You guys are missing the point......Span really isn't worth much to any other team. He is an average to above average CF with zero power and only average speed. Most teams have a guy like this and really Roger Bernadina isn't that much worse than Span....definitely not worse enough for the Nats to give up anything more than a PJ Walters type for him.

The Twins are in a SAD, SAD state because they have no tradeable talent and no prospects. Wake me up in 2025!

Span is pretty damn good for a leadoff hitter. Everyone is looking for an upgrade. If the Nats are in the race and the Braves and Phillies and Marlins and Mets are nipping at their heels. They upgrade. They Go for it because those kids in the minor league's are crapshoots and won't help them win RIGHT NOW. It gets more intense if the Phillies are also looking for a leadoff guy as well and sniffing around.

The desire to win RIGHT NOW when you are in the hunt is actually how we picked up Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos. It's also why Matt Capps can be a decent trading chip for the Twins in July.

If the Nats think that Bernadina is just as good. True, they will not be interested. However, They don't because Bernadina would have been slotted into the CF job over Ankiel coming out of spring and they will get really nervous if they have to stand pat and the Phillies upgrade and pick up Span.

If Bernadina was the guy(in their opinion)... Ian Desmond wouldn't be hitting leadoff this year.

Riverbrian
05-12-2012, 03:04 PM
If you follow what Revere is doing at Rochester this year, you will see that he is working on the little things that will make him a great leadoff hitter. He is bunting and taking more walks with a lot of stolen bases. He hasn't gotten a lot of time in AAA until this year and is working hard to become a solid major league player. Let him stay there for another couple months, then bring him up.

I'm a Revere Fan and I await his re-arrival. If you are rebuilding... You rebuild with young players who bust ass.

Shane Wahl
05-12-2012, 03:25 PM
Good god, Roger Bernadina is terrible.

Shane Wahl
05-12-2012, 03:28 PM
Ben Revere is walking less this year in the minors than he EVER has. Look again.

But speaking of a trade chip . . .

darin617
05-12-2012, 03:33 PM
Nobody should think about selling anything until the last 10 days of July. Anybody within 5 games of a playoff spot at that time can reasonably consider themselves a buyer. The addition of the 2nd Wild Card in each league will greatly expand those ranks. Had that extra berth been available on July 21st last summer, there would have been 18 buyers, 8 sellers, and 4 teams on the bubble (the Twins, at 6 GB, were one of the bubble teams, unfortunately). That's a huge seller's market. Whatever the Twins might get for Span now, I bet they'll get more in a couple months when 5 or 6 teams are bidding on him.

You may be correct, but there will also be more players available for contending teams to choose from. You don't want another Santana situation where you passed on a great deal and get stuck holding onto to Span or worse yet taking a lesser deal than you could have accepted now.

Rosterman
05-12-2012, 03:52 PM
And, again, you an build thru free-agency unless you have a nucleus to build around. Free-agency can fill a few holes, not ALL the holes. And if you have too many holes, why would a free gent want to play here unless you vastly overpay them.

Right now, today, Span has worth because the Twins could make him available, which makes him worth more than 80% of the outfielders out there right now. Plus he is producing. If he fell to 2011 totals and we wait for everyone to com e back, or the divisions to open up and MORE teams make players available, he becomes less of a blue-chip piece.

Highabove
05-12-2012, 04:44 PM
If Span is traded, it must be for pitching.

James Richter
05-12-2012, 05:31 PM
As long as there are more bidders than sellers, the sellers win. If the Twins aren't blown away by an offer for Span during the season, they should just hang onto him. Players can get traded during the offseason, too. Getting inadequate value in trades is one of the reasons we're in this mess right now.

Neinstein
05-12-2012, 06:33 PM
Hows about Denard Span for Ross Detwiler, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Kobernus (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t547&t=p_pbp&pid=571862) and Daniel Rosenbaum (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t547&t=p_pbp&pid=572095).
http://cache.blippitt.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Evil-Laugh.png

snepp
05-12-2012, 06:33 PM
Inadequate value would be an improvement over what they have been getting.

gunnarthor
05-12-2012, 07:38 PM
Hows about Denard Span for Ross Detwiler, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Kobernus (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t547&t=p_pbp&pid=571862) and Daniel Rosenbaum (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t547&t=p_pbp&pid=572095).

Probably depends on how the Twins view Detwiler. Clippard is a good piece but Kobernus and Rosenbaum aren't that highly regarded and are a bit old, from what I can tell. Sickels rated them the # 11 and 19 prospects in the Nats system. Detwiler doesn't have the best peripherals, I'm not sure the Twins should do that sort of trade.

glunn
05-12-2012, 11:44 PM
As long as there are more bidders than sellers, the sellers win. If the Twins aren't blown away by an offer for Span during the season, they should just hang onto him. Players can get traded during the offseason, too. Getting inadequate value in trades is one of the reasons we're in this mess right now.

I agree with this. The best trade partner is a team that wants Span so much that they are willing to pay a premium, preferably with at least two high level pitching prospects.

TKGuy
05-12-2012, 11:58 PM
Gotta get the rangers involved

twinsnorth49
05-13-2012, 09:15 AM
There are 73 good reasons in this thread for why none of us are big league managers. I'm a little league manager, all I need to worry about is having enough sunflower seeds and bubblegum to make the kids happy.

gunnarthor
05-13-2012, 12:12 PM
Gotta get the rangers involved

I'd love it if the DBacks got in on it. They have an insane number of high quality arms in their system.

twinstalker
05-13-2012, 12:40 PM
OH MY GOD, finally someone agrees with me about this.
No, a lot of people agree with you, it's just that some of us who agree with you don't come here that often...not when supposed Twins fans/intellects advocate dumping Span for, say, a reliever. It's bad enough we have a GM without much of a clue...who might actually do something like that.

gunnarthor
05-13-2012, 01:07 PM
No, a lot of people agree with you, it's just that some of us who agree with you don't come here that often...not when supposed Twins fans/intellects advocate dumping Span for, say, a reliever. It's bad enough we have a GM without much of a clue...who might actually do something like that.

Quick, find a post where anyone advocated trading Span for a reliever. Or, for that matter, where our GM ever made a trade like that.

Seth Stohs
05-13-2012, 09:57 PM
Gotta get the rangers involved

This... the Rangers are the team that 1.) need Span (CF and leadoff hitter), and 2.) have a lot of pitching to trade!

glunn
05-14-2012, 01:50 AM
This... the Rangers are the team that 1.) need Span (CF and leadoff hitter), and 2.) have a lot of pitching to trade! I would like to get a lefty with a high ceiling. It looks like the Mariners have at least two of these -- Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. -- and the Mariners might highly value Span. (http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/index.jsp?c_id=tex#list=tex)

Montecore
05-14-2012, 04:10 AM
Unless it's Span for a good frontline starter - forget it.

twinswon1991
05-14-2012, 06:27 AM
I would like to get a lefty with a high ceiling. It looks like the Mariners have at least two of these -- Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. -- and the Mariners might highly value Span. (http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/index.jsp?c_id=tex#list=tex)

The Mariners have Guttierez coming off the DL soon. He is a far better defender than Span and has a better power/speed combo. Both players have checkered injury history and Span's concussion history is a major red flag. I would guess the Mariners think they have a better in house option thus no need to trade. If you want Hultzen or Paxton, Sano will need to be part of the deal plus another prospect.

Dilligaf69
05-14-2012, 11:31 AM
Sano AIN'T happening!

Dilligaf69
05-14-2012, 11:33 AM
this... The rangers are the team that 1.) need span (cf and leadoff hitter), and 2.) have a lot of pitching to trade!



agree!!!!!

nicksaviking
05-15-2012, 11:06 AM
The Nationals reportedly are scouting Red Sox catchers to replace former Twin Wilson Ramos who looks to be out for the season. Should the Twins be trying to engage a team like the Nationals who have plans on contending in the hopes of them overpaying for Ryan Doumit? The Nationals have quite a few organizational prospects in the 10-20 range that I'd be interested. I'd be interested in a guy named Robbie Ray, he's in the lower ranks but he has a strong arm. They have a couple 1B with quite a bit of power and high K rates who are in the upper levels of the system Chris Marrero and Tyler Moore. They also have some middle infielders that hit for average. Of course the "We are family" Twins would probalby insist on Stever Lomardozzi Jr who hits better than his dad. Good speed, SLG will probably be low at the MLB level, OBP probably respectable.

gunnarthor
05-15-2012, 12:06 PM
The Nationals reportedly are scouting Red Sox catchers to replace former Twin Wilson Ramos who looks to be out for the season. Should the Twins be trying to engage a team like the Nationals who have plans on contending in the hopes of them overpaying for Ryan Doumit? The Nationals have quite a few organizational prospects in the 10-20 range that I'd be interested. I'd be interested in a guy named Robbie Ray, he's in the lower ranks but he has a strong arm. They have a couple 1B with quite a bit of power and high K rates who are in the upper levels of the system Chris Marrero and Tyler Moore. They also have some middle infielders that hit for average. Of course the "We are family" Twins would probalby insist on Stever Lomardozzi Jr who hits better than his dad. Good speed, SLG will probably be low at the MLB level, OBP probably respectable.

It's not a bad idea to trade Doumit but at the same time I suspect ownership doesn't want another 99 loss team for financial reasons.

nicksaviking
05-15-2012, 02:23 PM
Keeping Butera as the backup catcher obviously would be the hangup, but if the club thinks that loosing 96 games instead of 99 games will apease the fans, they are sadly overestimating everyone's tolarence for losing.

Neinstein
05-16-2012, 10:16 AM
Probably depends on how the Twins view Detwiler. Clippard is a good piece but Kobernus and Rosenbaum aren't that highly regarded and are a bit old, from what I can tell. Sickels rated them the # 11 and 19 prospects in the Nats system. Detwiler doesn't have the best peripherals, I'm not sure the Twins should do that sort of trade.

Take another peak at Rosenbaum's profile. Tell me you wouldn't be happy with a guy like that pitching in New Britain or Rochester. Kobernus and Rosenbaum are 24 years old. 24 is not old, not even close. Detwiler is a Lefty that has displayed some success already. Tyler Clippard is the obvious prize in the deal with a couple other players knocking on the door, and if Ross Detwiler is figuring out his delivery problems, he could be better than any of the Twins' other starting pitchers.

gunnarthor
05-16-2012, 10:32 AM
Take another peak at Rosenbaum's profile. Tell me you wouldn't be happy with a guy like that pitching in New Britain or Rochester. Kobernus and Rosenbaum are 24 years old. 24 is not old, not even close. Detwiler is a Lefty that has displayed some success already. Tyler Clippard is the obvious prize in the deal with a couple other players knocking on the door, and if Ross Detwiler is figuring out his delivery problems, he could be better than any of the Twins' other starting pitchers.

I wouldn't be happy trading Span for two guys outside of their own team's top 10 prospects. I don't know enough about MiLB stats to say Rosenbaum is a good player but I note that he hasn't been better in the EL than Liam Hendriks, despite being a year older when he was in it. (I don't know why the Giants Surkamp isn't a top 100 prospect based on his numbers, either). But people that know more than me rate Rosenbaum outside his teams top 10, which means, at best, he probably profiles as a #5 starter or long reliever, which I don't trade Span for. And I don't want the centerpiece of a Span trade to be a relief pitcher. So I'd pass on that deal unless the Twins thought Detwiler has a huge ceiling that I don't know about.

mike wants wins
05-16-2012, 10:41 AM
Fangraphs has a nice listing of the top prospects for each team, easy to find on their website. I like to read up on players there. If I already typed that, sorry....

StormJH1
05-16-2012, 12:42 PM
The Mariners have Guttierez coming off the DL soon. He is a far better defender than Span and has a better power/speed combo. Both players have checkered injury history and Span's concussion history is a major red flag. I would guess the Mariners think they have a better in house option thus no need to trade. If you want Hultzen or Paxton, Sano will need to be part of the deal plus another prospect.
Agree. My face lit up a bit when you mentioned the Mariners because they have such a wealth of good pitching. But keep in mind the following:

(1) They just did a major "pitching for offense" swap in the Pineda/Montero trade, how many more times will they do that?
(2) Based on the configuration of that ballpark, they may be purposefully aiming for a pitching/defense oriented team, rather than a bunch of mashers. They do play Chone Figgins at 3B, after all.
(3) Span is 28, and already on the tail end of his "prime". The Mariners aren't ready to contend for anything now, and Franklin Guttierez is a better defensive CF anyway. A team like the Nationals is at least logical because they seem to be closer to contending than the Mariners are.

Riverbrian
05-16-2012, 01:22 PM
The Mariners are going through the rebuilding thing and in my opinion are on target. They traded Pineda for Montero because it looks like they will have three potential 1 or 2's currently in AA arriving in Seattle about the same time. Walker, Hultzen and Paxton will join King Felix who is signed through 2014 in a young talented rotation. Who will man the 5th spot is being competed for right now.

They will look to make any deal possible to improve the offense at this point to coincide with the arrival of the big Three... Hence the Trade for Montero. However, I doubt that they will part with any of the young pitching since their rebuilding plans seemingly revolve around these 3 arms.

The Twins have to get to where the Seattle Mariners are right now before they can start to get better in my opinion. Find a trading partner to move Span for a potential frontline starter. Forget about getting a current frontline starter. It won't happen unless the guy is a head case. The Twins need to start stockpiling arms and the scary thing is that the current stockpile is unstocked.

Neinstein
05-16-2012, 03:25 PM
I wouldn't be happy trading Span for two guys outside of their own team's top 10 prospects. I don't know enough about MiLB stats to say Rosenbaum is a good player but I note that he hasn't been better in the EL than Liam Hendriks, despite being a year older when he was in it. (I don't know why the Giants Surkamp isn't a top 100 prospect based on his numbers, either). But people that know more than me rate Rosenbaum outside his teams top 10, which means, at best, he probably profiles as a #5 starter or long reliever, which I don't trade Span for. And I don't want the centerpiece of a Span trade to be a relief pitcher. So I'd pass on that deal unless the Twins thought Detwiler has a huge ceiling that I don't know about.

Scouts don't know what to make of Rosenbaum. He was drafted 22nd round, 2009 out of Xavier University Cincinnati Ohio. No one has ever come out of that school to provide anything remotely close to MLB level talent. His numbers are better than Hendrik's were in EL. At least bookmark his profile, revisit it later in the year. I'll bet you he climbs their list very quickly if he keeps pitching the way he has. In an organization with that weak of a minor league system, he'll be in their top 6 next year.

Remember when Blackburn basically wasn't on anyone's radar, then in 2008 he was their #1 prospect? Weird huh. Don't put all your scouts in one basket.

Brandon Warne
05-17-2012, 09:01 AM
If a deal is done, wouldn't mind at all if Lombardozzi was the third piece (or 2nd piece with a bigger name).

But I think those of you throwing around names like Rendon will be pretty disappointed. I could see one top prospect for Span -- someone in the 75-101 range -- but I don't think a guy like Rendon fits that bill.

Brandon Warne
05-17-2012, 09:06 AM
Span is 28, and already on the tail end of his "prime".

I don't think that's the tail end of anyone's prime.

Shane Wahl
05-17-2012, 09:34 AM
I don't think that's the tail end of anyone's prime.

The tail end begins when his current contract ends. Seems pretty happily coincidental.

gunnarthor
05-17-2012, 10:36 AM
If a deal is done, wouldn't mind at all if Lombardozzi was the third piece (or 2nd piece with a bigger name).

But I think those of you throwing around names like Rendon will be pretty disappointed. I could see one top prospect for Span -- someone in the 75-101 range -- but I don't think a guy like Rendon fits that bill.

Yeah, Rendon (injuries and all) would be nice but probably unlikely. I wonder if the Dodgers, flush with moola and stuck with Gordon leading off and Rivera in left would put together a package around Zach Lee (BA #62, currently in A+).

one_eyed_jack
05-17-2012, 10:52 AM
I'm starting to come around to the idea of trading Span. He's our best trade chip, and thus our best chance to bring assets in return.

Terry Ryan needs to pull another AJ-for-Nathan/Liriano type trade, which obviously isn't easy, but trading Span is his best shot at it.

syves
05-17-2012, 12:01 PM
I wish we could trade Span to the Rays if we had to trade him, and send him home. The Mariners aren't going to give up pitching for hitting in their park, they get more value from pitchers, as we should realize is the same for the Twins. We need to trade for Pitching and defense. Long term we'll trade Willingham and our veterans, and we'll have an outfield of Revere in left, Hicks in center, and Benson in right.

That is a rather fast outfield. Revere will get OBP figured out in the MLB too, just give him a little time.

Trading for Starting pitching needs to be the priority with Doumit and Span.

Neinstein
05-29-2013, 07:12 PM
1 year later and this still appears a quite a huge haul.


Hows about Denard Span for Ross Detwiler, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Kobernus (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=t547&t=p_pbp&pid=571862) and Daniel Rosenbaum (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t547&t=p_pbp&pid=572095).
http://cache.blippitt.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Evil-Laugh.png

gunnarthor
05-29-2013, 08:07 PM
1 year later and this still appears a quite a huge haul.

A couple 25 yr old AAA pitchers, a reliever and a 25 yr old UI with 2 ML games? I'm pretty happy with the Meyer deal.

But man, was I close with my Lee idea. Instead of the #61 prospect they ended up trading for the #59. Nailed it.

Pius Jefferson
05-29-2013, 09:14 PM
It's not even June but I wonder if the Nats regret not going a different direction with lead-off hitter? Denard Span is having another below average season. That's three in the last four years and last season he was barely above average.

Neinstein
05-29-2013, 09:19 PM
You're so concerned about age. I'll post again next year, and we'll look at the outcome again.


A couple 25 yr old AAA pitchers, a reliever and a 25 yr old UI with 2 ML games? I'm pretty happy with the Meyer deal.

But man, was I close with my Lee idea. Instead of the #61 prospect they ended up trading for the #59. Nailed it.

gunnarthor
05-29-2013, 10:48 PM
It's not even June but I wonder if the Nats regret not going a different direction with lead-off hitter? Denard Span is having another below average season. That's three in the last four years and last season he was barely above average.

Not sure, my guess is they are ok with the trade since he's probably better than he's played but you're right, he's not having a great year.