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View Full Version : How bad is it really?



minn55441
04-29-2012, 07:31 PM
Through 21 Games the Twins are 6-15. We knew this was going to be a rough start to the season because of the schedule. Take a closer look, we are 1-1 against central division opponents and we are only 5.5 back of first, more importantly we are only 4.5 behind the Tigers. Forget the record, if you were told on opening day, that we would only be trailing the Tiger's by 4.5 games after this opening stretch of games most of us would have been very encouraged. We have a shot of competing this year.

What is more surprising that Baltimore leads the East? That Boston trails the East with a Losing record? How about the fact that the Angels are last in the West trailing both Oakland and Seattle by 3.5 games and a shocking 9.5 out of first before the first of May?

Will these trends continue? My take is that, Texas is the one team that was projected to be strong and has looked every bit as good advertised. They win the west. The Angels will recovery and may land one of the two wild card spots. The Tigers will recover and still win the Central going away. The East is loaded as expected and I still think Tampa will rise to the top and leave the Yankees, Boston and the Angels to fight it out for the 2 Wild card spots. I still think the Twin's make it to .500

nokomismod
04-29-2012, 07:46 PM
Way to keep it positive! I like it. I really wish that we could have managed to win one more on that road trip, one from Boston, and Friday night's game. But to keep it positive, the bullpen has been better, the infield defense has been much better, and our bats are coming around.

Riverbrian
04-29-2012, 08:02 PM
I'm worried about needing to throw in the towel later in the season but I still have the towel.

Go Twins!!!

spideyo
04-29-2012, 08:34 PM
Looking ahead too, the one series we actually won so far was against the angels, and we play them six times in the next 9 games. In fact, for the month of May we only face two two teams that are currently above .500 (the blue jays and indians), and both could easily be at or below .500 after they face the rangers next week.

As I mentioned to a guy at the stadium today, it could be worse. We could be Royals fans

bronald3030
04-29-2012, 08:36 PM
I love the Twins and will continue to follow and root for them, but with this starting pitching staff it is hard to be positive about this season.

one_eyed_jack
04-29-2012, 08:59 PM
Not as bad as it could be with a 6-15 record. This is a weak division that shouldn't be that hard to at least hang in for a while. It's quite possible that nobody will run away with it, and it will be there for the taking for anyone who can catch fire down the stretch.

The bats have come alive. The bullpen has been solid. Defensively we're not great, but we're far better than last year.

If the starting rotation can get its act together in time for the stretch of the schedule where we play Detroit, Cleveland and the Mighty Whities in a couple of weeks, we could get ourselves right back in the mix.

I'm not expecting a playoff spot, but it would at least be nice to see the Twins playing meaningful games this summer.

Fire Dan Gladden
04-29-2012, 09:26 PM
Let's see, as a team they are currently:

- Tied for the worst record in baseball
- Have the worst ERA by .20 runs
- Teams are hitting .291 against them, worst in baseball
- They have 3 quality starts, again worst in baseball
- They are giving up the worst OPS (.833) in all of baseball

Yuck.

Offensively, they are in the middle third of most categories. Same with defense. Pretty easy to see where the problems are. Hard to be real optimistic when the pitching is bad now and will still be bad tomorrow.

cr9617
04-29-2012, 09:41 PM
There is very little upside across almost the entire roster. Hard to see how this team can improve much in the coming months, or years....

Top Gun
04-29-2012, 10:03 PM
I expect the Twins to win the central. There pitching will be fine.

CDog
04-29-2012, 10:20 PM
There is very little upside across almost the entire roster. Hard to see how this team can improve much in the coming months, or years....

Except the 7 position players with numbers well below their career. Or the 4 pitchers. Or the ten...yes ten...pitchers with xFIP values wayyyyy below their ERA.

striker_86
04-29-2012, 10:33 PM
4.5 behind the tigers. Ill take it. Although look at last summer, when they made that run from late May to June, the pitching was fantastic, they were winning a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games. If the starters (even 2 starters) can turn it around, we'll be ok.

cr9617
04-29-2012, 11:30 PM
Except the 7 position players with numbers well below their career. Or the 4 pitchers. Or the ten...yes ten...pitchers with xFIP values wayyyyy below their ERA.

Alright. So rather than lose 15 out of every 20 games, they will only lose 12 out of every 20. I stand corrected...

scottz
04-30-2012, 12:56 PM
We have a shot of competing this year.

I still think the Twin's make it to .500

I like your optimism, but your logic is flawed. Getting to .500 - even if that occurs (requires a 75-66 record, a .532 clip) - would finish out of the 2nd wild card anywhere from 5-10 games, which to me seems like not truly competing (though it would be a more enjoyable season). Actually competing for the wild card - getting to 86 wins, minimum - would mean going 80-61 the rest of the way (.567). That just doesn't seem likely with this rotation, even if the starters improve en masse.

So, my answer has to be, "it's bad".

StormJH1
04-30-2012, 02:25 PM
It's bad. But the scary part is that it isn't unexpectedly bad. Mauer has basically been Mauer, and he's played EVERY GAME. At the beginning of the year, we had no idea if Span and Morneau could even stay in the lineup, but they've been healthy and fairly productive. The bullpen, despite letting go of virtually every proven commodity except for Capps and Perkins over the past few years, has been serviceable.

Then there's the rotation. Yuck. I'm not too sympathetic to those who are surprised by this. Yes, losing Baker kills. Perhaps it's surprising that Pavano lost 3 mph off his fastball, and that Liriano continued the downward slide.

But where was the upside? Pavano was never going to post a sub-4.00 ERA. He can't miss any bats, and the defense behind him and the other "pitch to contact" guys is not all that good. Hendricks feels like a poor man's Kevin Slowey, who felt like a poor man's Brad Radke. And the worst part of it is that there's no help on the way. Scott Diamond is not going to win 12 games for us. They certainly aren't going to go spend money on any veteran solutions (though post-hype garbage on the waiver pile is certainly possible). This is the worst rotation in the majors -and they play in a ballpark that favors pitchers. Seattle's a bad team, but middle of the road starters can thrive there because of the park. San Diego makes average starters (and relievers) look like All-Stars. How bad, then, must guys like Blackburn, Pavano, and Swarzak really be? Could you imagine them pitching half their games at Fenway or Coors?

mike wants wins
04-30-2012, 02:45 PM
It is hard to believe they are this bad at pitcing, in a pitcher's ballpark, agreed.

Riverbrian
04-30-2012, 03:45 PM
It's bad. But the scary part is that it isn't unexpectedly bad. Mauer has basically been Mauer, and he's played EVERY GAME. At the beginning of the year, we had no idea if Span and Morneau could even stay in the lineup, but they've been healthy and fairly productive. The bullpen, despite letting go of virtually every proven commodity except for Capps and Perkins over the past few years, has been serviceable.

Then there's the rotation. Yuck. I'm not too sympathetic to those who are surprised by this. Yes, losing Baker kills. Perhaps it's surprising that Pavano lost 3 mph off his fastball, and that Liriano continued the downward slide.

But where was the upside? Pavano was never going to post a sub-4.00 ERA. He can't miss any bats, and the defense behind him and the other "pitch to contact" guys is not all that good. Hendricks feels like a poor man's Kevin Slowey, who felt like a poor man's Brad Radke. And the worst part of it is that there's no help on the way. Scott Diamond is not going to win 12 games for us. They certainly aren't going to go spend money on any veteran solutions (though post-hype garbage on the waiver pile is certainly possible). This is the worst rotation in the majors -and they play in a ballpark that favors pitchers. Seattle's a bad team, but middle of the road starters can thrive there because of the park. San Diego makes average starters (and relievers) look like All-Stars. How bad, then, must guys like Blackburn, Pavano, and Swarzak really be? Could you imagine them pitching half their games at Fenway or Coors?

More so then the impressively bad trades that netted nothing in return. This is the biggest failure of the Bill Smith regime. The nearly complete collapse of a once highly ranked farm system under his watch. I don't know who's fault it is, I don't know if this was just bad luck or something that was bound to happen.

All I know is that it happened under his watch.


28 Million in pitching contracts are coming off the books this year. 28 Million!!! The Twins spend 28 million on this pitching staff and that doesn't even include Blackburn.

sotafan
04-30-2012, 03:56 PM
It has gone how I thought it would through the first month of the season record wise. The starting pitching is much worst than I thought it would be while the offense has been some what of a surprise. The Hammer was a great get this offseason and Doumit has held his own while providing a good replacement for Mauer. Morneau is back to his old ways and let's hope he keeps it up. Mauer is Mauer and without a new hitting coach he will never hit for power.

I really don't want the Twins to even try to contend this year, only due to the fact that if they do start having some success they will stand pat like last year. Meaning, they won't trade for any one or trade away anyone. Pavano, Liriano, Capps and Marquis ALL need to be traded. We may see a few bags of balls and a few bats back if they are pitching like they currently are. The best we can hope for this season is those four to have ERA's in the mid to low 4's and we can trade them for some much needed pitching depth. We can only really expect mid-lvl prospects back but at this point that is better than nothing.

I will be happy if they are close to 500 and have no shot at a playoff spot come the end of July. Here is to a great season of up's and down's. Go Twins!!! You are what you are!!

Dilligaf69
04-30-2012, 04:01 PM
I like their offensive output so far but they have left a TON of men on base, avg is gotta be below .200 still??...A few more key hits and even with our terrible starting pitching we'd have maybe 10 wins. Also why do I have a bad feeling LAA will get healthy against us like the Bosox did??

hitterscount
04-30-2012, 04:06 PM
It's bad...there is nothing positive about being 6-15. Yes we have had a tough schedule, but rolling over against the east gets old. Trying to be positive, but with a starting rotation as bad as this teams a long, or any kind of, winning streak will be next to impossible. This start shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.