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Seanmiz
04-24-2012, 10:29 AM
Brett Joseph Hermsen

Currently playing at: AA New Britain
Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 6th round of the 2008 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Born: December 1, 1989 in Masonville, Iowa (Age 22)
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 235 lb.


Career Stats (Rk-A+):
3.20 ERA
337.2 Innings Pitched
240 Strikeouts
337 Hits
65 Walks
20 Homeruns
1.191 WHIP
3.69 SO/BB

2012 Stats (A+) as of 04/25/12:
0.78 ERA
23 Innings Pitched
12 Strikeouts
16 Hits
5 Walks
1 Homerun
0.913 WHIP
2.40 SO/BB

2012 pre-season prospect analysis by Aaron Gleeman (http://tinyurl.com/6wtfx8x)



"When the Twins picked B.J. Hermsen out of an Iowa high school in the sixth round of the 2008 draft and gave him second-round money in the form of a $650,000 signing bonus he was touted as a power arm, but somewhere along the way he lost the ability to light up radar guns and miss bats. Hermsen stands 6-foot-6, so he certainly looks the part, but his fastball is regularly clocked in the high-80s and he's managed just 228 strikeouts in 315 pro innings.That includes just 101 strikeouts in 151 innings between low Single-A and high Single-A last season, although the lack of whiffs didn't keep Hermsen from pitching well with a 3.33 ERA in 25 total starts. His success came from throwing strikes and limiting homers, as Hermsen allowed 11 long balls in 645 plate appearances and issued 2.2 walks per nine innings, but opponents also hit .278 off him.
Hermsen is still just 22 years old, so there might be time to rediscover the lost velocity, but it hasn't happened three years into his pro career and unless that changes--or he figures out a way to induce more ground balls to compensate--it's tough to project him as more than a potential mid-rotation starter. This season should provide a good test for whether Hermsen's now-mediocre raw stuff will get the job done against tougher competition."



2012 season (as of 04/24/12) by Seth Soths (http://tinyurl.com/6ocankr)




"Everyone wants to point out that he doesn't throw real hard, but what he does do is get hitters out with a good mix of pitches and a poise on the mound. Hersen has made three starts and is yet to get a decision despite tremendous numbers. He is 0-0 with a 0.50 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. In 18 innings, had has given up just nine hits, walked just four and struck out ten. "

Seth Stohs
04-29-2012, 11:49 AM
Hermsen to be promoted to AA New Britain following today's game. Expected to start on Monday night for Rock Cats.

gunnarthor
04-29-2012, 12:22 PM
Hermsen to be promoted to AA New Britain following today's game. Expected to start on Monday night for Rock Cats.

Well, good for him. He's still pretty young. Here's hoping this turns out well.

greengoblinrulz
04-29-2012, 12:47 PM
You can either throw hard & not get guys out (Dakota Watts/Bruce Pugh types) or not throw hard but get guys out like BJ.

shs_59
04-29-2012, 05:19 PM
Hermsen to be promoted to AA New Britain following today's game. Expected to start on Monday night for Rock Cats.

Whoooo woooooo hoooooooooooooooooooo

I'm glad for him, just saw you're post seth, WOW. I must say a bit shocked. ALL That time in the Midwest Lg. very NILL time at FSL. Almost like Twins (similar to Parmelee) skipped a level. w/ BJ. Now i know pitchers should be handled differently. But I'm sure they (the Twins) KNOW he's ready. And personally i like the move, its aggressive but i think B.J. can more than handle himself there now.

shs_59
04-29-2012, 05:42 PM
Bump^^ anybody know of anyone going to Monday Nights Rock Cats game?

Seanmiz
05-01-2012, 08:43 AM
Hermsen didn't end up starting on 04/30/12. He has been awarded pitcher of the month by Seth Stohs though! (http://tinyurl.com/d2fv7gz (http://tinyurl.com/d2fv7gz))


Ft. Myers – BJ Hermsen - 4 GS, 1-0, 0.78 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 23 IP, 16 H, 5 BB, 12 K

Hermsen had a terrific 2011 season for the Twins organization. He spent most of the year in Beloit where he went 11-7 with a 3.10 ERA. He was promoted to Ft. Myers and made five starts. He made four starts in April for the Miracle before being promoted to AA New Britain where he is expected to make his first start for the Rock Cats tonight. Hermsen is not a pitcher who misses bats, so he relies on a strong mix of pitches. Despite a 6-6 frame, he doesn’t overpower hitters, and yet, when you look at the numbers, he gets results. Double-A may be a challenge for him, but he has earned this opportunity. A 6th round pick in the 2008 draft, the Twins will have to decide after the season whether to put him on the 40 man roster or not. We will see what happens going forward, but for April 2012, he was the Twins top minor league starting pitcher.

Seanmiz
05-01-2012, 10:29 PM
Instead Hermsen pitched tonight! (05/01/2012)

Here is his stat line:


Player
IP
H
R
ER
BB
SO
HR
ERA


B.J. Hermsen (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543297)
7.0
4
1
1
1
5
0
1.29




Pitches-89
Strikes-69 Balls-20
Groundouts-5 Flyouts-6


Fantastic outing for his first AA level start!
The game ended up tied at 1 run until the 12th inning, when the Rock Cats exploded with 5 runs to win it 6-1!

Twins Fan From Afar
05-01-2012, 10:41 PM
I might try to catch his next start in New Britain.
He was great tonight!

Seanmiz
05-06-2012, 02:16 PM
Another solid start for Hermsen in his second AA level game.



Player
IP
H
R
ER
BB
SO
HR
ERA


B.J. Hermsen (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543297)
6.1
5
3
3
1
5
1
2.70

greengoblinrulz
05-06-2012, 04:07 PM
Just gets guys out. Had a very underrated year @ Beloit, leading the lg in IP before his FSL promotion. Basically skipping High A, the team must think highly of him. Wouldnt take much to be the number 1 rated pitching prospect int his organization (of healthy guys).

greengoblinrulz
05-24-2012, 02:42 PM
Another solid start for BJ today......7IP 10h 3er 3k ND......35IP in 5 starts, very nice. He is showing he can be an innings eater despite his lack of velocity.
Anyone think he will get a solid AAA shot this year or not??

jorgenswest
05-30-2012, 11:47 PM
Our minor league pitcher of the month.

Anyone else discouraged by his very low 4.8 k/9 rate? It was a low 6.0 last year in a-ball.

It is very unlikely that a pitcher will be successful in the majors with those k rates. Nick Blackburn has seen limited success with similar rates in minors.

greengoblinrulz
06-10-2012, 03:31 PM
Another great outing for BJ today
7IP 5h 0r 5k 1bb 85pitches

Gardy basically announced Hendriks will be called up to start Sat on his radio show.......does this mean BJ goes to ROC. 2 promotions in one year is VERY unTwins-like but if he earns it, he earns it.

IdahoPilgrim
06-10-2012, 03:48 PM
Another great outing for BJ today
7IP 5h 0r 5k 1bb 85pitches

Gardy basically announced Hendriks will be called up to start Sat on his radio show.......does this mean BJ goes to ROC. 2 promotions in one year is VERY unTwins-like but if he earns it, he earns it.

I was wondering about that myself, and I do think he has earned it, but my guess is they promote Hirschfeld, who has also pitched very well in AA and already was used for a spot start in Rochester last week.

Seanmiz
06-10-2012, 03:53 PM
Great 7 innings of shutout ball today!

Seth Stohs
06-10-2012, 04:47 PM
probably just depends on if they DFA Gray or Option Manship. If Manship goes back to Rochester, he'd start and they probably woudln't need someone.

gunnarthor
06-10-2012, 05:58 PM
Our minor league pitcher of the month.

Anyone else discouraged by his very low 4.8 k/9 rate? It was a low 6.0 last year in a-ball.

It is very unlikely that a pitcher will be successful in the majors with those k rates. Nick Blackburn has seen limited success with similar rates in minors.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing and I don't think his groundball rate is elite, either. He's still young so maybe he adds something. Maybe he ends up as a bullpen arm. But, regardless, it's nice to see him having success. Maybe the Twins will start grabbing more upside HS arms.

PMKI
06-10-2012, 06:06 PM
What's his upside?

greengoblinrulz
06-10-2012, 09:19 PM
What's his upside?

To me its higher than Blackburn as Hermsen is havin an outstanding yr @ 22 after a very solid one @ 21. Blackburn never really had an outstanding minor league yr till 25.
Best case....Mark Buerhle type. Eats innings, low K rate.

Agree that it depends on Manship/Gray & that Hirshfield is probably the guy IF someone is promoted, but he has really entered the discussion

greengoblinrulz
08-01-2012, 12:45 PM
I have come to hope that BJ equals out to a Tommy Milone of OAK. He's got a 3.68ERA w/average fastball of 87.8 (per fangraphs)
BJ is only 22 & gonna be added to 40 man this winter (or lost IMO). Milone dominated High A at age 22, AA @ 23, AAA @ 24 before his MLB debut/dealt to A's. He did have a K/9 of 6 in A/AA but they can be comparable as Hermsens K rate in FTM was 5.8 & he's a younger pitcher in AA than Milone was.
BJ finished his 5 July starts with 4W 1L 2.30ERA w/ 31.1IP 29h .236BAA 21k (impoving) 9bb

DPJ
08-01-2012, 03:27 PM
I just see no way BJ can succeed with that Blackburn-esqe K-rate and lack of groundballs.

greengoblinrulz
08-01-2012, 04:15 PM
The guy is only 22 & having very good success. There are soft tossing guys in the majors who have success (I like Tommy Milone as a guy to compare)....if he wasnt having this type of success at an early age (22), Id be more pesimistic

DPJ
08-03-2012, 08:52 AM
The guy is only 22 & having very good success. There are soft tossing guys in the majors who have success (I like Tommy Milone as a guy to compare)....if he wasnt having this type of success at an early age (22), Id be more pesimistic

Milone averaged 8 K/9 in the minors and is at a respectable 6.5 in the majors. Hermsen is 4.9 K/9 at AA and will only get worse if he gets to the majors.

greengoblinrulz
08-05-2012, 03:08 PM
The 22 yr old Hermsen & his 84/85mph fastball matched up SUN against last yrs #1 overall pick, 21 yr old Gerritt Cole & his 96/97mph fastball.
BJ 6IP 4h 3er 1bb 0k
Cole 4.2 IP 3h 2er 2bb 5k.....rock cats scored 5 in bottom of 5th

Hermsen left with a 6-3 lead

wdhawks3
08-07-2012, 08:56 PM
DPJ-Who cares about his K rate? He is 10-5 this year. He wins. Gets ground balls and can pitch. 12 ground outs to 3 fly outs in his last outing. His velocity has come back up. He has been at the 89-91 range lately. If you are really a Twins fan, you would be excited about having a 22 year old kid on the mound who knows how to win. He is a pitcher in every sense of the word. If you want a thrower, go find one. I see 95 mph fastballs leave the park every night. Give me a proven winner anyday.

drjim
08-07-2012, 09:11 PM
DPJ-Who cares about his K rate? He is 10-5 this year. He wins. Gets ground balls and can pitch. 12 ground outs to 3 fly outs in his last outing. His velocity has come back up. He has been at the 89-91 range lately. If you are really a Twins fan, you would be excited about having a 22 year old kid on the mound who knows how to win. He is a pitcher in every sense of the word. If you want a thrower, go find one. I see 95 mph fastballs leave the park every night. Give me a proven winner anyday.

Troll?

rickyhawaii
08-07-2012, 09:54 PM
If Hermsen knows how to win let him quarterback the Vikings

Celebrity Weddings!
08-07-2012, 10:02 PM
I'm surprised at his GB% this season. When I saw him last week, Bowie had an impossible time elevating the ball against him. At the very least, it seems like a skill that's well in progress. He also sat 89-91 all game, so the reports of a well below average fastball seem a big exaggerated.

DPJ
08-08-2012, 07:32 AM
DPJ-Who cares about his K rate? He is 10-5 this year. He wins. Gets ground balls and can pitch. 12 ground outs to 3 fly outs in his last outing. His velocity has come back up. He has been at the 89-91 range lately. If you are really a Twins fan, you would be excited about having a 22 year old kid on the mound who knows how to win. He is a pitcher in every sense of the word. If you want a thrower, go find one. I see 95 mph fastballs leave the park every night. Give me a proven winner anyday.

Hmmm...I don't really know what to do with this?

old nurse
08-08-2012, 08:01 AM
Hmmm...I don't really know what to do with this?

Say that he might be a good 4-5 starter? That is the usual way it is done when someone changes their stance on a pitcher they do not like.

DPJ
08-08-2012, 08:43 AM
Say that he might be a good 4-5 starter? That is the usual way it is done when someone changes their stance on a pitcher they do not like.

But I don't think he's gonna be a good 4-5 starter. When you have that small of a K-rate against AA hitters while not getting groundballs at a healthy clip then the ball is getting put in play way way too often.

I see little to no chance of BJ having any kind of success unless he makes some drastic change to his arsenal of pitches.

wdhawks3
08-09-2012, 06:54 PM
Troll?

Douche?

greengoblinrulz
08-10-2012, 09:34 PM
The Iowa flash continues to amaze with a complete game win with 10h 1 er 4k 1bb 94pitches 71strikes..... 13 groundouts vs 7 airouts

Now 6th in EL w/3.09ERA but of the 34 pitchers who qualify (0.8IP per team gm).....Hermsen is 30th in Ks

old nurse
08-10-2012, 10:31 PM
Say that he might be a good 4-5 starter? That is the usual way it is done when someone changes their stance on a pitcher they do not like.

But I don't think he's gonna be a good 4-5 starter. When you have that small of a K-rate against AA hitters while not getting groundballs at a healthy clip then the ball is getting put in play way way too often.

I see little to no chance of BJ having any kind of success unless he makes some drastic change to his arsenal of pitches.

Sorry, I was trying to find a diplomatic answer. Yes the outcome is different when most of the the hitters no longer have warning track power. Maybe the Twins could trade him to a club in the central division. There is one team with a lineup 3/4 full of warning track power Hermsen could find success against.

Seanmiz
08-12-2012, 09:52 PM
Great game on Friday:

IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG


9.0
10
1
1
0
1
4
1.63
.286

drivlikejehu
08-13-2012, 01:28 AM
Hermsen just doesn't have Major League stuff at this point, and probably never will. He would be batting practice. The key for him will be whether he can add velocity with a move to the bullpen.

Bringing up Milone in comparison is just nonsense... he struck out nearly a batter per inning in AA.

righty8383
08-13-2012, 02:22 AM
Hermsen just doesn't have Major League stuff at this point, and probably never will. He would be batting practice. The key for him will be whether he can add velocity with a move to the bullpen.

Bringing up Milone in comparison is just nonsense... he struck out nearly a batter per inning in AA.

I tend to agree with this. Even non strike out pitchers in the major leagues had at around 1 K/inning in the minors. I just don't see Hermsen being a quality starter in the bigs despite his solid numbers. Of course I'm always eager to be proven wrong in cases like this.

old nurse
08-13-2012, 05:57 AM
Hermsen just doesn't have Major League stuff at this point, and probably never will. He would be batting practice. The key for him will be whether he can add velocity with a move to the bullpen.

Bringing up Milone in comparison is just nonsense... he struck out nearly a batter per inning in AA.
Are you basing your opinion on what you see on paper or have you seen him pitch? How good is the movement on his pitches?
He may not strike out a lot of hitters, but he does not walk them either. His hits allowed total is not high either. If you want to base analysis only on one metric there is not much analysis going on.

DPJ
08-13-2012, 07:22 AM
Are you basing your opinion on what you see on paper or have you seen him pitch? How good is the movement on his pitches?
He may not strike out a lot of hitters, but he does not walk them either. His hits allowed total is not high either. If you want to base analysis only on one metric there is not much analysis going on.

Just looking at his k-rate is foolish, but it is a telling stat. When the ball is constantly being put in play against you odds are the ball is gonna find holes or go over the fence. His groundball rate is ok, but not elite that will cover up the lack of K's. I got nothing personal against BJ, I wish him the best. But I just see no chance in hell that he's gonna survive in the majors with the numbers and stuff he's shown in the minors.

drivlikejehu
08-13-2012, 08:22 AM
It's not only about strikeouts, per se. Hermsen just isn't fooling anyone, even at AA. Slowey struck out around 8 per 9IP there with decent fastball command alone. There is a reason it's the minor leagues. Any MLB-caliber pitcher should get K's at that level without even trying. Most hitters they face wouldn't even hit .200 in the Majors.

It would be great if he learned an effective new pitch or something, but at this point he's not much of a prospect. Probably in the #40 range for the organization.

old nurse
08-13-2012, 08:40 AM
Are you basing your opinion on what you see on paper or have you seen him pitch? How good is the movement on his pitches?
He may not strike out a lot of hitters, but he does not walk them either. His hits allowed total is not high either. If you want to base analysis only on one metric there is not much analysis going on.

Just looking at his k-rate is foolish, but it is a telling stat. When the ball is constantly being put in play against you odds are the ball is gonna find holes or go over the fence. His groundball rate is ok, but not elite that will cover up the lack of K's. I got nothing personal against BJ, I wish him the best. But I just see no chance in hell that he's gonna survive in the majors with the numbers and stuff he's shown in the minors.

His k/bb is respectable. If it were better his ceiling would be higher. A comparable pitcher to project based on his current numbers would be Carlos Silva. He gives up less homers, but might be facing a lot more warning track type power. A year in AAA will clarify his prospect status.

DPJ
08-13-2012, 09:17 AM
His k/bb is respectable. If it were better his ceiling would be higher. A comparable pitcher to project based on his current numbers would be Carlos Silva. He gives up less homers, but might be facing a lot more warning track type power. A year in AAA will clarify his prospect status.

I can't find Carlos Silva's GB/FB rate in the minors, but I'm willing to bet my child that it was over 2 maybe even 2.5 groundballs for every flyballs. Which is doable when you don't get swings and misses. But when you're not inducuing groundballs and you're not missing bats (at AA no less) You have no chance to succeed.

TRex
08-13-2012, 10:29 AM
In regards to Hermsen 'not fooling anyone'... I think you would have a much better argument if he were a 5 n' fly pitcher. But he has averaged OVER 6 innings per start for his whole minor league career, meaning he routinely goes through a lineup three times. I would argue that if you are as successful the third time through the lineup as you are the first two, you most certainly are fooling someone. It certainly doesn't guarantee him big league success, but it does give him a shot.

And I would turn your example of Slowey (the consummate 5 n' fly) around on you and say that he is the perfect example of why you need more than one pitch in the majors, and that minor league strikeout rate is not an absolute.

At the risk of being ridiculed, I would be happy if Hermsen turned into Nick Blackburn, who had a 5.5 SO/9, a ground ball rate of 1.16, and 11 home runs allowed as a 23 year old in AA.

DPJ
08-13-2012, 10:54 AM
At the risk of being ridiculed, I would be happy if Hermsen turned into Nick Blackburn, who had a 5.5 SO/9, a ground ball rate of 1.16, and 11 home runs allowed as a 23 year old in AA.

And we've all seen how well the lack of groundballs and lack of K's has worked for old Blackie.

drivlikejehu
08-13-2012, 11:16 AM
Among all MLB starters with 70 or more innings, five have a K/9 rate less than 4.5. The ERAs for that group (including Blackburn) are 4.49, 5.18, 7.33, 4.58, and 5.52. All of them are groundball pitchers to one degree or another, whereas Hermsen currently profiles as a moderate flyball pitcher (batters hit the ball in the air more often at higher levels of play). It is literally impossible to succeed with that combination.

But the even bigger problem is that 4.5 K/9 in the Majors is a lot different than the same rate in AA. In other words, Hermsen would actually have to improve a lot just to have a small chance of being a short-term 5th starter, which is basically a worthless commodity anyway. This is the same issue as with Herrmann, who is not really a prospect because back-up catchers are easy to acquire.

There are finesse pitchers that improve on their ability to keep hitters off-balance. Doug Fister is a current example. It is pretty rare, though. There are dozens of pitchers in the system who could make unusual strides- and most likely one or two of them will. My point is just that nothing really separates Hermsen from a bunch of other 'C' prospects that get little attention.

Brock Beauchamp
08-13-2012, 11:20 AM
At the risk of being ridiculed, I would be happy if Hermsen turned into Nick Blackburn, who had a 5.5 SO/9, a ground ball rate of 1.16, and 11 home runs allowed as a 23 year old in AA.

And we've all seen how well the lack of groundballs and lack of K's has worked for old Blackie.

If you can slot them into the rotation as a 4/5 and get 2-3 good/decent seasons out of them, that's great. The problem with Blackburn is that the team locked him up long-term when he should have been year-to-year with those peripherals. If the Twins used Nick in 2008/9 and then cast him off in 2010 or even 2011 after he collapsed, he would have been a great back-of-the-rotation guy for the team.

I have no problems with a Hermsen-type on the team (though I expect nothing of him) if the organization isn't relying on them to be long-term solutions for the middle of the rotation. Those types of guys are great for back-end filler for a season or two and then you kick them to the curb after they (almost) inevitably collapse.

TRex
08-13-2012, 09:43 PM
+1.

greengoblinrulz
08-15-2012, 10:02 PM
Hermsen went 5IP tonight 5h 1er 4k 64pitches
Assume the Twins are starting to wind down the innings pitched of their fulltime pitchers. BJ at 139.1IP (151.1IP last yr)
Would actually like them to increase his innings from last yr to around 165-170 to see if he's got it in him.
Is also gonna go to AFL for more innings, tho (I would assume).

Seth Stohs
09-01-2012, 10:55 AM
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=24360785

Video interview with BJ Hermsen about his athletic past and his career.