Thread: B.J. Hermsen

It's not only about strikeouts, per se. Hermsen just isn't fooling anyone, even at AA. Slowey struck out around 8 per 9IP there with decent fastball command alone. There is a reason it's the minor leagues. Any MLB-caliber pitcher should get K's at that level without even trying. Most hitters they face wouldn't even hit .200 in the Majors.

It would be great if he learned an effective new pitch or something, but at this point he's not much of a prospect. Probably in the #40 range for the organization.

Originally Posted by DPJ

Originally Posted by old nurse

Are you basing your opinion on what you see on paper or have you seen him pitch? How good is the movement on his pitches?
He may not strike out a lot of hitters, but he does not walk them either. His hits allowed total is not high either. If you want to base analysis only on one metric there is not much analysis going on.

Just looking at his k-rate is foolish, but it is a telling stat. When the ball is constantly being put in play against you odds are the ball is gonna find holes or go over the fence. His groundball rate is ok, but not elite that will cover up the lack of K's. I got nothing personal against BJ, I wish him the best. But I just see no chance in hell that he's gonna survive in the majors with the numbers and stuff he's shown in the minors.

His k/bb is respectable. If it were better his ceiling would be higher. A comparable pitcher to project based on his current numbers would be Carlos Silva. He gives up less homers, but might be facing a lot more warning track type power. A year in AAA will clarify his prospect status.

Originally Posted by old nurse

His k/bb is respectable. If it were better his ceiling would be higher. A comparable pitcher to project based on his current numbers would be Carlos Silva. He gives up less homers, but might be facing a lot more warning track type power. A year in AAA will clarify his prospect status.

I can't find Carlos Silva's GB/FB rate in the minors, but I'm willing to bet my child that it was over 2 maybe even 2.5 groundballs for every flyballs. Which is doable when you don't get swings and misses. But when you're not inducuing groundballs and you're not missing bats (at AA no less) You have no chance to succeed.

In regards to Hermsen 'not fooling anyone'... I think you would have a much better argument if he were a 5 n' fly pitcher. But he has averaged OVER 6 innings per start for his whole minor league career, meaning he routinely goes through a lineup three times. I would argue that if you are as successful the third time through the lineup as you are the first two, you most certainly are fooling someone. It certainly doesn't guarantee him big league success, but it does give him a shot.

And I would turn your example of Slowey (the consummate 5 n' fly) around on you and say that he is the perfect example of why you need more than one pitch in the majors, and that minor league strikeout rate is not an absolute.

At the risk of being ridiculed, I would be happy if Hermsen turned into Nick Blackburn, who had a 5.5 SO/9, a ground ball rate of 1.16, and 11 home runs allowed as a 23 year old in AA.

Originally Posted by TRex

At the risk of being ridiculed, I would be happy if Hermsen turned into Nick Blackburn, who had a 5.5 SO/9, a ground ball rate of 1.16, and 11 home runs allowed as a 23 year old in AA.

And we've all seen how well the lack of groundballs and lack of K's has worked for old Blackie.

Among all MLB starters with 70 or more innings, five have a K/9 rate less than 4.5. The ERAs for that group (including Blackburn) are 4.49, 5.18, 7.33, 4.58, and 5.52. All of them are groundball pitchers to one degree or another, whereas Hermsen currently profiles as a moderate flyball pitcher (batters hit the ball in the air more often at higher levels of play). It is literally impossible to succeed with that combination.

But the even bigger problem is that 4.5 K/9 in the Majors is a lot different than the same rate in AA. In other words, Hermsen would actually have to improve a lot just to have a small chance of being a short-term 5th starter, which is basically a worthless commodity anyway. This is the same issue as with Herrmann, who is not really a prospect because back-up catchers are easy to acquire.

There are finesse pitchers that improve on their ability to keep hitters off-balance. Doug Fister is a current example. It is pretty rare, though. There are dozens of pitchers in the system who could make unusual strides- and most likely one or two of them will. My point is just that nothing really separates Hermsen from a bunch of other 'C' prospects that get little attention.

Originally Posted by DPJ

Originally Posted by TRex

At the risk of being ridiculed, I would be happy if Hermsen turned into Nick Blackburn, who had a 5.5 SO/9, a ground ball rate of 1.16, and 11 home runs allowed as a 23 year old in AA.

And we've all seen how well the lack of groundballs and lack of K's has worked for old Blackie.

If you can slot them into the rotation as a 4/5 and get 2-3 good/decent seasons out of them, that's great. The problem with Blackburn is that the team locked him up long-term when he should have been year-to-year with those peripherals. If the Twins used Nick in 2008/9 and then cast him off in 2010 or even 2011 after he collapsed, he would have been a great back-of-the-rotation guy for the team.

I have no problems with a Hermsen-type on the team (though I expect nothing of him) if the organization isn't relying on them to be long-term solutions for the middle of the rotation. Those types of guys are great for back-end filler for a season or two and then you kick them to the curb after they (almost) inevitably collapse.

+1.

Hermsen went 5IP tonight 5h 1er 4k 64pitches
Assume the Twins are starting to wind down the innings pitched of their fulltime pitchers. BJ at 139.1IP (151.1IP last yr)
Would actually like them to increase his innings from last yr to around 165-170 to see if he's got it in him.
Is also gonna go to AFL for more innings, tho (I would assume).

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.j...nt_id=24360785

Video interview with BJ Hermsen about his athletic past and his career.