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Twins Draft Preview: 10-round Twins Mock

It was nearly one year ago today that I correctly predicted that the Twins would draft Nick Gordon in the first round of the 2014 draft and Max Murphy in the ninth round. I also suggested that the Twins could look at converting “a gajillion college relievers.” While I was off by a dozen or two on that projection, it was a common theme on the second day of the draft.

While I anticipated probably getting each one of my picks wrong, I feel pretty good about getting two right and having the theme correct. I feel so good, in fact, that I’m going to give it another shot today.
To try to give this an as “realistic” feel as possible, I found every player’s composite ranking (the average of Perfect Game, Baseball America and MLB) and couldn’t take them unless they fell after or within 10% of the pick (with the exception of the first pick). For example, to be “eligible” for me to pick at 73, the composite ranking had to be lower than 65.7. To be drafted at 80, he had to be ranked 72 or lower. For the last three picks, I couldn’t choose a player who was ranked in the Top 200 on each of the three lists.

Round 1 (Pick 6 - $3,889,500): RHP Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara. Consider it wishful thinking. As much I like Alex Bregman (a ton), my hope is that Tate is available at six and that’s the route the Twins go. Should he not be available, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Kolby Allard are other names that are under consideration.

Comp Round B (Pick 73 - $839,800): RHP Kyle Cody, Kentucky. At the beginning of the season, Cody looked like a first-rounder. Armed with a big body (6-7, 245) and a bigger fastball (high-90s), Cody has been very inconsistent and has regressed to the point that Kentucky was using him as a mid-week reliever. Cody had success in the Cape Cod League last summer and could continue to the Kentucky-to-Minnesota pipeline. Oh, and Cody also grew up exactly 100 miles to the east of Target Field in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin. If a prep like RHP Dakota Chalmers falls to this point, he could be another guy the Twins zero in on. (Composite average: 69)

Round 3 (Pick 80 - $754,000): 3B Trey Cabbage, Tennessee prep. Cabbage was mentioned by Darren Wolfson a couple weeks ago as someone the Twins could target with their second pick. He’ll come off the board here with their third pick. Cabbage is a Top 100 draft prospect with a pretty left-handed swing, projectable power and the potential to play third base. (Composite average: 93)

Round 4 (Pick 110 - $517,800): LHP Jeff Degano, Indiana State. The Canadian-born Degano missed nearly two seasons with Tommy John surgery before becoming a dominant pitcher for the Sycamores. Degano throws a mid-90s fastball and backs it up with a high-70s slurve. If he can improve on a changeup - and with Neil Allen, I’d believe everyone can - the 6’4" southpaw has the stuff to be a professional starter. (Composite average: 105)

Round 5 (Pick 140 - $387,600): LHP Logan Allen, IMG Academy. IMG Academy has much more well-known names on the current roster, but Allen is no slouch. A South Carolina commit, Allen transferred to IMG Academy after two years of high school and is a pretty advanced 18-year-old. If Allard is the Twins pick in the first round, don’t expect them to pop a second prep lefty so quickly. Mac Marshall could be another prep lefty on the team’s radar. (Composite average: 148)

Round 6 (Pick 170 - $290,300): C Joey Bart, Georgia prep. The Twins usually draft at least one catcher in the Top 10 rounds. Bart is known more for his bat and could eventually move out from behind the plate. A more likely catcher selection may be Washington’s Austin Rei, who was drafted, but unsigned, by the Twins out of high school in the 37th round of the 2012 draft. Rei figures to go off the board much earlier. (Composite average: 172)

Round 7 (Pick 200 - $217,500): RHP Jacob Cronenworth, Michigan. Cronenworth is playing wherever Michigan needs him. He’s been a starter, a closer and played around the infield. He’s never solely focused on being a pitcher, and could make huge improvements with that focus. Cronenworth has a background in hockey, so he’d fit right in. (Composite average: 186)

Round 8 (Pick 230 - $175,400): RHP Josh Graham, Oregon. Graham doesn’t show up in any Top 200s (yet). He’s a converted catcher who throws gas. He’s from Oregon. The Twins had success with Jake Reed from Oregon. His last name is Graham. The Twins had success with J.R. And for icing of the cake: The Twins drafted Graham out of high school in 2012. He still considers himself a catcher, however. He even removed his cap while fielding a pop up earlier this season. He was pitching. Graham could certainly go higher and is the one on this list I’d peg the Twins most likely to take.

Round 9 (Pick 260 -$163,800): RHP Kyle Davis, USC. Davis profiles best as a reliever, but has the pitches to give starting a chance. He pitched in both roles as a Trojan.

Round 10 (Pick 290 - $153,100): OF Anderson Miller, Western Kentucky. Miller is an athletic player who has shown some pop (14 homers) in his bat. The makeup is good as well.

So there you have it: a projection of what the Twins could do with their top 10 picks. How would you feel if it played out like this? Would you prefer seven college relievers instead?

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22 Comments

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diehardtwinsfan
May 31 2015 08:33 PM

Not a bad list.I'd kind of hope for one or two more HS guys if they could, especially if they can get someone under slot at the higher levels. I also wouldn't be surprised if they take more catchers.The system is pretty weak there.

Pretty impressive to make the call on Max Murphy and even get the round correct.

 

Just curious, Jeremy; how many of the 2014 Twins' top 10 picks were within the 10% composite average for the round they were chosen?  In other words, were there any "reaches" or "value picks" from what you could tell?

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Captain Hindsight
May 31 2015 11:17 PM

Ryan said earlier that the Twins will let talent not medical concerns decide who they draft at number 6. MLBTR speculated this could mean Matuella or Aiken are in play with their first pick with Wolfson mentioning them being high on Aiken last year (though suggeted Allard might be more likely). It might be wishful thinking on my part that they would go this route but it is worth noting. 

 

Also, Mac Marshall is a JC player not a prep. He was draft eligible last year. 

I hope we make catcher a bit more of a priority

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Jeremy Nygaard
Jun 01 2015 06:51 AM

 

Just curious, Jeremy; how many of the 2014 Twins' top 10 picks were within the 10% composite average for the round they were chosen?  In other words, were there any "reaches" or "value picks" from what you could tell?

 

I didn't figure out the composite rankings of the guys last year. And when you start looking at national rankings from 50-500, there is so much inconsistency. So, it depends on which list you look at. You might get a guy at 140 that was Top 100 in one ranking and missed the Top 500 in a different one.

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Jeremy Nygaard
Jun 01 2015 06:54 AM

 

Also, Mac Marshall is a JC player not a prep. He was draft eligible last year. 

 

Yep. You're right. The Twins liked Marshall a ton out of high school. In the days leading up to the draft, his high price tag become evident and he dropped (to the Astros in the 21st round). He was rumored to be one of the guys that might receive some of the Aiken savings. Anyway, he enrolled at LSU but transferred to Chipola JC, where he pitched this year. 

 

I hope he's in the mix with the Twins second and third picks.

 

 

Tall pitchers make me nervous. I'd probably pass on that one....

 

Aiken also makes me nervous. Given they don't have a 2nd rounder, I think you can't take the chance on also blowing your first rounder (it is all somewhat luck based, adding a bad injury in makes it worse, imo).

 

I like Tate or Bregman or Allard there.

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Jeremy Nygaard
Jun 01 2015 06:58 AM

 

I hope we make catcher a bit more of a priority

 

Catcher just isn't a position I'm thinking much about. There just isn't a lot of quality in this draft.

 

Plus, while the Twins don't have a clear "future catcher", there are a lot of guys that could fill that void, from Turner to Garver to Swim to Navarreto to Silva... I'm not saying any ARE the answer, but that cupboard isn't as empty as a lot of people think. 

    • RaymondLuxuryYacht likes this

Jeremy, Doogie mentioned that Radcliff said that the Twins won't sign as many players as they have in past years. They've signed a lot more of their picks in recent years.

 

I guess I read that as - let's get our guys that we're needing to sign (top 12-15 rounds), and after that draft some higher-end high school guys and hope that a couple of them will be willing to take an offer. I may be wrong in that thinking, but that was my thought. Draft the guys that you want and need to sign, and then go for guys who if they sign, you're thrilled.

    • RaymondLuxuryYacht likes this

 

Catcher just isn't a position I'm thinking much about. There just isn't a lot of quality in this draft.

 

Plus, while the Twins don't have a clear "future catcher", there are a lot of guys that could fill that void, from Turner to Garver to Swim to Navarreto to Silva... I'm not saying any ARE the answer, but that cupboard isn't as empty as a lot of people think. 

 

The issue for me is it seems like our catcher depth is always deeper than it actually is.We always seem to have guys at AA or AAA that are catching, but they don't meet our standards defensively.I always thought Pinto and Morales were future catchers. So to see us so thin before we start ruling guys out makes me a little nervous.

 

I think this is by far the biggest gap in the system. 

 

    • howieramone2 likes this

 

Jeremy, Doogie mentioned that Radcliff said that the Twins won't sign as many players as they have in past years. They've signed a lot more of their picks in recent years.

 

I guess I read that as - let's get our guys that we're needing to sign (top 12-15 rounds), and after that draft some higher-end high school guys and hope that a couple of them will be willing to take an offer. I may be wrong in that thinking, but that was my thought. Draft the guys that you want and need to sign, and then go for guys who if they sign, you're thrilled.

 

If the system is super deep already, it probably makes sense to get more high end talent in, and then, as you say, see what HS kids will sign.

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twinsfanstreif
Jun 01 2015 08:07 AM
Sign me up!
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diehardtwinsfan
Jun 01 2015 08:15 AM

 

Pretty impressive to make the call on Max Murphy and even get the round correct.

 

Just curious, Jeremy; how many of the 2014 Twins' top 10 picks were within the 10% composite average for the round they were chosen?  In other words, were there any "reaches" or "value picks" from what you could tell?

 

I seem to remember reading here a few years back that by the 3rd round, teams start seeing guys picked who weren't even on their boards.Kind of interesting to think about in a 40 round draft.

    • Mike Sixel and Hosken Bombo Disco like this

A few months ago, I was really hoping Cody would pitch himself into the top 10 so getting him at 73 would be great, IMHO. 

 

I think that Tate is the best case scenario for The Twins and am really starting to hope he falls.Getting those two guys would make me pretty happy.

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RaymondLuxuryYacht
Jun 01 2015 09:28 AM

John Sickels over at minorleageball had his community Four Round mock draft on Sunday – with Sickels handling the Twins draft duties – here are the results

 

1. Carson Fullmer, RHP, Vanderbilt(Tate went #4 to Texas)
2B. Nicholas Shumpert, SS, Colorado HS(Cody went #60 to Seattle)
3. 4. Austin Allen, C, Florida Tech (Cabbage was selected #63 by Oakland)
Ryan Kellogg, LHP, Arizona State University (Degano goes at # 90 to the Brewers)

 

And it appears that both Allen and Bart are still on the board at the end of the 4th round.

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Jeremy Nygaard
Jun 01 2015 09:34 AM

 

Jeremy, Doogie mentioned that Radcliff said that the Twins won't sign as many players as they have in past years. They've signed a lot more of their picks in recent years.

 

I guess I read that as - let's get our guys that we're needing to sign (top 12-15 rounds), and after that draft some higher-end high school guys and hope that a couple of them will be willing to take an offer. I may be wrong in that thinking, but that was my thought. Draft the guys that you want and need to sign, and then go for guys who if they sign, you're thrilled.

 

That's exactly my thought too, but to get those guys you have to budget for them. And that's not happening if you pay slot at #6. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

 

Without looking at the numbers, I feel like there was swell in signings the last two years, the numbers will probably just shrink back down to where they had been (22-23) and we'll see less guys from the 35-40 rounds sign.

Is there any concern with Jay and Tate that we are looking at their velocity as relievers, then thinking that is where their velocity will be as starters?

 

Per fangraphs data, from 2009 to 2012, Glen Perkins added 4-5 mph on average when he switched from starter to reliever. I would hate to get too excited about Jay for example and think we are getting a mid 90's lefty, then see him actually be in the low 90's, or Tate in the 93-98 range, only to see him actually be low 90's as well. If those guys end up low 90's they probably are not considered at #6 right?

 

http://www.fangraphs...8041&position=P

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Jeremy Nygaard
Jun 01 2015 10:56 AM

Tate has started all year. Jay, while a closer, has thrown nearly 60 innings including an outing or two where he went five innings. 

    • tobi0040 likes this

 

Is there any concern with Jay and Tate that we are looking at their velocity as relievers, then thinking that is where their velocity will be as starters?

 

Per fangraphs data, from 2009 to 2012, Glen Perkins added 4-5 mph on average when he switched from starter to reliever. I would hate to get too excited about Jay for example and think we are getting a mid 90's lefty, then see him actually be in the low 90's, or Tate in the 93-98 range, only to see him actually be low 90's as well. If those guys end up low 90's they probably are not considered at #6 right?

 

http://www.fangraphs...8041&position=P

I always subtract 1-2 MPH from any college starter to account for the difference between pitching once a week versus pitching every five days. So if Tate is 93-98 right now, I'm guessing he will be 91-96 as a pro, which is still really good for a starter (averaging 93 MPH gets one into the top-30)

 

I think it is reasonable to do a similar adjustment for bullpen-to-starter conversions. That is the big question I have about Jay - will he be able to maintain his stuff during the grind of pitching every 5 days? 

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Carneal&Gordon
Jun 04 2015 12:17 AM
Jeremy,

Seems like it has been awhile since the Twins have taken anyone on or committed to UCLA. Since John Savage took over a decade ago he's turned the program into a national power while also producing many quality players such as Brandon Crawford, Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole to name a few.

Hope the Twins get involved this year with draft eligible prospects like P James Kaprelian, SS Kevin Kramer and arguably the best closer in NCAA history David Berg. Berg's stats

http://www.thebaseba...?P=david-berg-2

They could also go for old commit Aiken or current commit Allard.

The Timberwolves and Vikings have created a recent pipeline to UCLA and the Twins need to hop on board.
    • maxisagod likes this
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blairpaul715
Jun 08 2015 12:25 AM

Last yr was the first yr i did my own Twins 10 round Mock, other than Gordon, i didnt have any correct, and most of my players were taken before my turn in the round i chose given player, but here is my uneducated guess

1.(6) Kyle Tucker, If Bregman and Tate not available, and if all 3 are taken, I will guess, Jay.

2b (73) Kyle Cody, RHP............Kentucky pipeline

3.(80) Austin Rei, C................Need a catcher with some offensive upside.

4.(110) Bryan Hudson, LHP......6'8 they like tall pitchers

5.(140) Thomas Eshelman,RHP.. Pitcher with good control

6.(170) Ryan Karstetter, 3rd.....Good hit tool 3rd baseman.

7.(200) Phillip Pfeifer, LHP.........Good Changeup

8.(230) Xavier LeGrant 2b,OF...Good speed

9.(260) John Kilichowski, LHP.....Mostly like the name the new KILLER

10.(290) Luke Wakamatsu, SS..Grew up around the game.

 

There is my prediction, if i get more than 2 right, i am buying a Lottery ticket :)

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Hosken Bombo Disco
Jun 09 2015 02:55 PM
Good job with the mock picks.

My boy Josh Graham of Oregon, the guy who wants to be a starting pitcher and then be starting catcher on his off days, was taken by the Braves in the 4th round, 120 overall.

Mariano Rivera, son of Mariano Rivera, went at the end of the 4th round (Washington).

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